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The Impact of Sample-size and Sample-process on Several Usual Importance Evaluate Methods

Chinese Journal of Health Statistics.2017;34(2):210-213.

Objective Implement random sample from a simulation population,to evaluate the The impact of samplesize and sample-process on several usual importance evaluate methods,observe the stability of those methods.Methods This study introduced existed importance methods,using PROC SURVEYSELECT procedure to sample a fixed population for 1000 times,generating 1000 same size sample,to evaluate the stability of relative importance methods.We sampled the population to generate datasets with different sample size to observe impact of sample-size on those methods.Results The sum of squared correlation coefficients' estimator is bigger than model R-square,squared standardized regression coefficients' sum is smaller.In contrary,sum of the Product Measure,Relative Weight and Dominance Analysis are extremely close to model R-square.When the sample size small than 1000,the estimator have obviously variation,but the variation decreased when the sample size rise up.Conclusion The dominance analysis has best stability,also has the best match of model R2 in those methods.

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The Economic Burden of Patients with Mental Illness in Shandong Province during 2005 to 2013

Junfang XU ; Jian WANG ; Feng CHENG

Chinese Journal of Health Statistics.2017;34(2):196-199.

Objective To calculate the social economic burden of mental illness,and to analyze the economic impact of different patients with mental illness in Shandong Province.Methods Direct method was used to calculate the direct economic burden,and human capital method was employed to estimate the indirect economic burden.Results The social economic burden increased from 10.076 billion in 2005 to 31.277 billion in 2013,and the proportion of the social economic burden accounting for GDP of Shandong province was between 0.5 ％～ 0.7％.The economic burden caused by women,18-39 years old patients,rural patients and mood disorders was higher than that of men,more than 55 years-old patients,urban patients and other diagnoses,respectively.Conclusions The economic burden brought by mental illness was heavy and increasing during 2005-2013.The economic burden caused by different people was heterogeneous.

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A Comparative Study on the Effect of Principal Component Regression Analysis and Projection Pursuit Regression Analysis Applied to the Data with Collinearity

Wan HU ; Yansong SUN ; Liangping HU

Chinese Journal of Health Statistics.2017;34(2):192-195.

Objective To compare the difference of effect between principal component regression analysis and projection pursuit regression analysis when collinearity exists in data.Methods Evaluating the advantages and disadvantages of the two modeling methods by using the actual data on two aspects:the fitting effect and the predicting effect.Results The principal component regression model showed that the coefficient of determination was 0.8172,the mean of absolute relative error was 6.42％ and the mean square of prediction error was 0.61.The projection pursuit regression model,on the other hand,showed that the coefficient of determination ranged from 0.8851 to 0.9944,the mean of absolute relative error ranged from1.11％ to 4.81％ and the mean square of prediction error ranged from 0.03 to 0.38.Conclusion The analysis results based on the actual data with collinearity indicate that the projection pursuit regression analysis outperforms the principal component regression analysis both in fitting and predicting effect.

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Temporal Trend and Prediction of Mortality of Life Lost due to Esophageal Cancer in Residents in Tieling

Liang ZHANG ; Wen LU ; Xia ZHAO

Chinese Journal of Health Statistics.2017;34(2):247-249.

Objective To explore the trend of mortality and years of life lost due to Esophageal Cancer in residents in Tieling,so as to provide the basis data on preventing Esophageal cancer in Tieling.Methods The data of residents in Tieling dying of Esophageal cancer from 2007 to 2015 was collected and cleared up to calculate the evaluation indexes including the mortality rate,the average percentage change of mortality rate.GM(1,1) model was used to predict the future mortality.Results From 2007 to 2015,the Average Esophageal cancer Mortality Rate of in residents in Tieling was 5.26 per 100000 persons,and especially 1.95％ raised a year.The Mortality Rate would increase from 2016 to 2019.Conclusion Tieling Esophageal Cancer mortality rate is on the rise,especially for elder men more than 60.So that the proper prevention measures should be car ried and strengthened.

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Building a Prediction System of Influenza Epidemics with LASSO Regression Model and Baidu Search Query Data

Pi GUO ; Li WANG ; Yuantao HAO

Chinese Journal of Health Statistics.2017;34(2):186-191.

Objective To evaluate the performance of a prediction system built with LASSO regression model and Baidu search query data.Methods Based on a strategy using a combination of Bagging and multi-measure optimization method,this study proposed an ensemble LASSO regression model which had an obviously improved performance,and applied it to predict the epidemics of influenza in China.Results The results showed that the improved model had significantly smaller prediction error rates than that of the conventional LASSO regression model for influenza cases during the study period of 2011-2015.This study designed an open source R package,SparseLearner,which was conveniently used and further developed.Conclusion The combination of Bagging and multi-measure optimization method is an efficient strategy to improve the performance of LASSO regression model.The proposed ensemble LASSO regression model in this study can be applied for the prediction of infectious diseases epidemics.

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ARIMA Product Season Model for Predicting Number of Inpatient and Hospitalized Expense of Malignant Tumor

Ling CHEN ; Lijun CHENG ; Xiangjun ZHAO

Chinese Journal of Health Statistics.2017;34(4):554-557.

Objective To explore the application of auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) product season model in predicting number of inpatient and hospitalized expense of malignant tumor,and to provide scientific basis for hospital business management.Methods We collected inpatient data of malignant tumor from January 2007 to December 2015 in one hospital for model fitting,and used monthly data 2016 to verify the effect of model prediction.We predicted the number of inpatient and hospitalized expense of malignant tumor in 2017.Results ARIMA (0,1,1) (1,1,0) 12 was the best model for number of inpatient and hospitalized expense of malignant tumor,with prediction fitting errors of 1.1％ and 1.47 ％,respectively.The number of inpatient and hospitalized expense of malignant tumor in 2017 were predicted to be 7631 and 0.336 billion.Conclusion ARIMA product season model can better applied in the predicting of hospital business management.

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Analysis of Quality of Life and its Influencing Factors in Patients with Acute Upper Respiratory Tract Infection

Aixia MA ; Qiang LIU ; Hongchao LI

Chinese Journal of Health Statistics.2017;34(4):550-553.

Objective To learn quality of life of acute upper respiratory tract infection patients and their influence factors.Methods We conducted questionnaire investigation on acute upper respiratory tract infection patients from five hospitals,respectively located in Wuhan,Hefei and Jinhua.The scale we used is EQ-5D.We calculated EQ-5D score through three different integration systems,which are from China,Korea and the UK,in order to compare difference among different countries' integration systems.Then econometric model was used to carry out regression analysis on factors affected EQ-5D score.Results 659 samples was included,with 319 from Wuhan,235 from Hefei and 105 from Jinhua.Among EQ-5D five dimensions,the first three dimensions do not have problems.However,81.94％ of the patients have problems in pain/discomfort and 47.8％ of them have problems in anxiety/depression.In regression analysis,location,severity level of disease and whether accompanied by chronic diseases or not have influence on EQ-5D score.Compared with utilities of patients who are suffered from other diseases,utilities of acute upper respiratory tract infection patients are lower than that of cerebral apoplexy,hypertension,coronary heart diseaseand diabetes patients;but are higher than that of Chronic lymphatic filariasis,chronic obstructive pneumonia and rheumatoid arthritis patients.Conclusion Chinese acute upper respiratory tract infection patients mainly have problems in the dimension of pain/discomfort and anxiety/depression.Compared to British integration system,Korean's is more applicable to Chinese population.Acute upper respiratory tract infection patients' utilities are lower than that of healthy population and chronic invalids with no obvious symptoms,and higher than that of chronic invalids with obvious symptoms.

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Comparison of Blinding Sample Size Adjustment with Unblinding One in Clinical Trials Through Simulations

Suzhen WANG ; Jielai XIA ; Liang ZHENG

Chinese Journal of Health Statistics.2009;(5):477-479,482. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-3674.2009.05.008

Objective To determine the appropriate methods to sample size adjustment for adaptive design through simulations by comparing sample size adjustment of blinding internal pilot design with that of unwinding one in clinical trials. Methods Compare type I error and the power of blinding and unblinding internal pilot design through Monte Carlo simulation. Results Either type I error rates or the powers are not substantially distinct in two lands of settings. Conclusion Blinding sample size adjustment is more preferable.

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Comprehensive Evaluation of Medical Quality with Factor Analysis and Weighted TOPSIS Method

Jun CHEN ; Shixing TANG ; Dong YI

Chinese Journal of Health Statistics.2009;(5):486-488,492. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-3674.2009.05.011

Objective A comprehensive evaluation of the quality of medical service from January to December in 2007 was conducted in order to provide scientific policies for far-flung work and create bigger benefit in a certain hospital. Methods Apply factor analysis ascertains the weight,and we carry through a comprehensive evaluation of the quality of medical service combine with weighted TOPSIS to the hospital. Results The quality of medical service of hospital in 2007. The months of April,July , November better; February,May, October worse. The results accord with reality. Conclusion Research shows comprehensive evaluation of hospital medical quality needs a scientific target system. Using factor analysis and combining weighted TOPSIS in comprehensive evaluation is more objective and more scientific and authentic as take full advantage of the original source.

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The Application of the Prediction of the Reported Weekly Incidence of Bacillary Dysentery in Chaoyang District Using the Time Series Model

Shufeng CUI ; Jianxin MA ; Shuming LI

Chinese Journal of Health Statistics.2009;(6):583-585,591. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-3674.2009.06.007

Objective The study estabfished a model to pre-dict the weekly incidence of bacillary dysentery in Chaoyang District,and evaluated its predictive effects. Methods To eliminate the factors of sea-son-changing by means of Time Series. Auto regressive integrated moving average(ARIMA), based on model identification, estimation andverifica-tion of parameter, and analysis of the fitting of model, was established. Fi-nally,the predictive model was established by the multiple of ARLMA and seasonal factors. Results The error of the model for the prediction was -0.06 on average. The relative error was 2.32% on average. Conclusion Time series could not only accurately predict useing the data which was collected every week,but shorten the cycle of prediction.

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