Chinese Journal of Health Statistics 2017;34(2):247-249

Temporal Trend and Prediction of Mortality of Life Lost due to Esophageal Cancer in Residents in Tieling

Liang ZHANG ; Wen LU ; Xia ZHAO

Keywords

Esophageal cancer; Mortality; Prediction; GM(1,1) model

Country

China

Language

Chinese

Abstract

Objective To explore the trend of mortality and years of life lost due to Esophageal Cancer in residents in Tieling,so as to provide the basis data on preventing Esophageal cancer in Tieling.Methods The data of residents in Tieling dying of Esophageal cancer from 2007 to 2015 was collected and cleared up to calculate the evaluation indexes including the mortality rate,the average percentage change of mortality rate.GM(1,1) model was used to predict the future mortality.Results From 2007 to 2015,the Average Esophageal cancer Mortality Rate of in residents in Tieling was 5.26 per 100000 persons,and especially 1.95% raised a year.The Mortality Rate would increase from 2016 to 2019.Conclusion Tieling Esophageal Cancer mortality rate is on the rise,especially for elder men more than 60.So that the proper prevention measures should be car ried and strengthened.