Chinese Journal of Health Statistics 2017;34(2):247-249
Temporal Trend and Prediction of Mortality of Life Lost due to Esophageal Cancer in Residents in Tieling
Liang ZHANG ; Wen LU ; Xia ZHAO
Keywords
Esophageal cancer; Mortality; Prediction; GM(1,1) model
Country
China
Language
Chinese
Abstract
Objective To explore the trend of mortality and years of life lost due to Esophageal Cancer in residents in Tieling,so as to provide the basis data on preventing Esophageal cancer in Tieling.Methods The data of residents in Tieling dying of Esophageal cancer from 2007 to 2015 was collected and cleared up to calculate the evaluation indexes including the mortality rate,the average percentage change of mortality rate.GM(1,1) model was used to predict the future mortality.Results From 2007 to 2015,the Average Esophageal cancer Mortality Rate of in residents in Tieling was 5.26 per 100000 persons,and especially 1.95% raised a year.The Mortality Rate would increase from 2016 to 2019.Conclusion Tieling Esophageal Cancer mortality rate is on the rise,especially for elder men more than 60.So that the proper prevention measures should be car ried and strengthened.
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