Objective: To forecast mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes, and to simulate the impact of controlling risk factors by 2030 in China. Methods: We simulated the burden of disease from diabetes in six scenarios according to the development goals of risk factors control by the WHO and Chinese government. Based on the theory of comparative risk assessment and the estimates of the burden of disease for China from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015, we used the proportional change model to project the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes under different scenarios of risk factors control in 2030. Results: If the trends in exposures to risk factors from 1990 to 2015 continued. Mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes would increase to 32.57/100 000, 17.32/100 000, and 0.84% by 2030, respectively. During that time, mortality, age-standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality for males would all be higher than for females. If the goals of controlling risk factors were all achieved, the number of deaths from diabetes in 2030 would decrease by 62.10% compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends in exposure to risk factors, and the probability of premature mortality would drop to 0.29%. If only the exposure to a single risk factor were achieved by 2030, high fasting plasma glucose control would have the greatest impact on diabetes, resulting in a 56.00% reduction in deaths compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends, followed by high BMI (4.92%), smoking (0.65%), and low physical activity (0.53%). Conclusions: Risk factors control plays an important role in reducing the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes. We suggest taking comprehensive measures to control relevant risk factors for certain populations and regions, to achieve the goal of reducing the burden of disease from diabetes as expected.
Male ; Female ; Humans ; Risk Factors ; Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology* ; Mortality, Premature ; Smoking ; Cost of Illness ; China/epidemiology* ; Global Burden of Disease

Objective: To analyze the prevalence and the trend of the disease burden of chronic respiratory diseases and relevant risk factors in Jiangsu province from 1990 to 2019 and provide evidence for the prevention and treatment of chronic respiratory diseases. Methods: The data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD2019) were used to calculate the prevalence rate, mortality rate and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate. Software Joinpoint was used to calculate the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) of the standardized prevalence rate, standardized mortality rate and standardized DALY rate. The population attributable fractions (PAF) were used to estimate the proportion of chronic respiratory disease caused by different risk factors. Results: In 1990 and 2019, the prevalence rates of chronic respiratory diseases were 4.83% and 5.45%. The mortality rates were 134.91/100 000 and 80.99/100 000 respectively, and the DALY rates were 2 678.52/100 000 and 1 534.31/100 000 respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized prevalence rate, mortality rate and DALY rate in Jiangsu showed a significant downward trend (AAPC values were -0.90%, -5.28% and -4.70% respectively, P<0.05). Tobacco use was the leading cause of chronic respiratory diseases, followed by air pollution, occupational exposure, suboptimal temperature and high BMI. Compared with 1990, the proportion of DALYs of chronic respiratory diseases attributable to tobacco use and high BMI increased in 2019. Conclusion: The overall burden of chronic respiratory diseases in Jiangsu shows a downward trend. Prevention and health education should be focused on the population with a smoking history and high BMI. At the same time, environmental management, attention to suboptimal temperature and control of occupational exposure factors should also be adopted as important means to prevent and control chronic respiratory diseases.
Humans ; Global Burden of Disease ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/mortality* ; Risk Factors ; China/epidemiology* ; Prevalence

Objective: To analyze the prevalence and the trend of the disease burden of chronic respiratory diseases and relevant risk factors in Jiangsu province from 1990 to 2019 and provide evidence for the prevention and treatment of chronic respiratory diseases. Methods: The data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD2019) were used to calculate the prevalence rate, mortality rate and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate. Software Joinpoint was used to calculate the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) of the standardized prevalence rate, standardized mortality rate and standardized DALY rate. The population attributable fractions (PAF) were used to estimate the proportion of chronic respiratory disease caused by different risk factors. Results: In 1990 and 2019, the prevalence rates of chronic respiratory diseases were 4.83% and 5.45%. The mortality rates were 134.91/100 000 and 80.99/100 000 respectively, and the DALY rates were 2 678.52/100 000 and 1 534.31/100 000 respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized prevalence rate, mortality rate and DALY rate in Jiangsu showed a significant downward trend (AAPC values were -0.90%, -5.28% and -4.70% respectively, P<0.05). Tobacco use was the leading cause of chronic respiratory diseases, followed by air pollution, occupational exposure, suboptimal temperature and high BMI. Compared with 1990, the proportion of DALYs of chronic respiratory diseases attributable to tobacco use and high BMI increased in 2019. Conclusion: The overall burden of chronic respiratory diseases in Jiangsu shows a downward trend. Prevention and health education should be focused on the population with a smoking history and high BMI. At the same time, environmental management, attention to suboptimal temperature and control of occupational exposure factors should also be adopted as important means to prevent and control chronic respiratory diseases.
Humans ; Global Burden of Disease ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/mortality* ; Risk Factors ; China/epidemiology* ; Prevalence

Objective: To analyze mortality and its trend of chronic respiratory diseases (CRD) in China from 1990 to 2019. Methods: Based on the provincial results of China from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, the average annual percent change (AAPC) of standardized mortality rates of different CRDs were analyzed by using Joinpoint 4.8.0.1, and the age-standardized mortality rate of CRD was calculated by using the GBD 2019 world standard population. Based on the comparative risk assessment theory of GBD, the attributable deaths due to 12 CRD risk factors were estimated, including smoking, indoor air pollution, occupational gas exposure, particulates and smog exposure, environmental particulate pollution, low temperature, passive smoking, ozone pollution, occupational exposure to silica, occupational asthma, high body mass index, high temperature and occupational exposure to asbestos. Results: From 1990 to 2019, the number of deaths and standardized mortality of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) showed a downward trend (P<0.001). The number of COPD deaths decreased from 1 244 000 (912 000 - 1 395 000) in 1990 to 1 037 000 (889 000 - 1 266 000) in 2019. AAPC=-0.9% (95%CI: -1.5% - -0.3%), P<0.001; The standardized mortality rate decreased from 217.9/100 000 (163.3/100 000 - 242.0/100 000) in 1990 to 65.2/100 000 (55.5/100 000 - 80.1/100 000) in 2019. AAPC= -4.2% (95%CI:-5.2% - -3.2%), P<0.001. The number of deaths from asthma decreased from 40 000 (30 000 - 58 000) in 1990 to 25 000 (20 000 - 31 000) in 2019. AAPC=-2.0% (95%CI: -2.6% - -1.4%), P<0.001; The standardized mortality rate of asthma decreased from 6.4/100 000 (4.7/100 000 - 9.5/100 000) in 1990 to 1.5/100 000 (1.2/100 000 - 1.9/100 000) in 2019. AAPC=-5.1% (95%CI: -5.8% - -4.4%), P<0.001. The number of pneumoconiosis deaths decreased from 11 000 (8 000 - 14 000) in 1990 to 10 000 (8 000 - 14 000) in 2019, AAPC=-0.2%(95%CI:-0.4% - 0.1%), P=0.200; The standardized mortality rate of pneumoconiosis decreased from 1.4/100 000 (1.0/100 000 - 1.7/100 000) in 1990 to 0.5/100 000 (0.4/100 000 - 0.7/100 000) in 2019. AAPC=-3.1% (95%CI: -3.4% - -2.8%), P<0.001. The number of deaths from pulmonary interstitial diseases and pulmonary sarcoidosis increased from 3 000 (3 000 - 6 000) in 1990 to 8 000 (6 000 - 10 000) in 2019, AAPC=3.5% (95%CI: 2.7% - 4.2%), P<0.001; The corresponding standardized mortality rate changed little from 1990 to 2019, and AAPC was not statistically significant.The age-standardized mortality rates of different CRDs were higher in men than those in women. In 1990 and 2019, the mortality rates of COPD, asthma, pneumoconiosis and interstitial pulmonary disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis increased with age. In 2019, the population attributable fractions (PAFs) for smoking, environmental particulate pollution, occupational gas exposure, particulate and smog exposure, low temperature exposure and passive smoking were 71.1% (68.0% - 74.3%), 24.7% (20.1% - 30.0%), 19.3% (13.0% - 25.4%), 15.7% (13.6% - 18.3%) and 8.8% (4.5% - 13.1%) respectively in men, and the PAFs for environmental particulate pollution, smoking, low temperature exposure, occupational gas exposure, particulate and smog exposure, and passive smoking were 24.1% (19.6% - 29.3%), 21.9% (18.7% - 25.2%), 16.4% (14.0% - 19.2%), 15.6% (10.2% - 21.1%) and 14.7% (7.9% - 21.3%) respectively in women. Conclusions: During 1990-2019, the overall death level of CRD decreased significantly in China, but it is still at high level in the world. Active prevention and control measures should be taken to reduce the death level caused by CRD.
Asthma ; China/epidemiology* ; Female ; Global Burden of Disease ; Humans ; Male ; Mortality ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years

Pancreatic cancer is the ninth common malignancy in South Korea. It has a dismal prognosis with a 5-year overall survival rate of less than 10%, and pancreatic cancer is associated with cancer cachexia, which is defined as the loss of muscle mass that is not reversible by conventional nutritional support. Cachexia is noted in over 85% of all pancreatic cancer patients and it is strongly related with the disease’s mortality. Nearly 30% of pancreatic cancer deaths are due to cachexia rather than being due to the tumor burden. Therefore, it is crucial to discover the mechanisms behind the development of muscle wasting in pancreatic cancer patients and find novel therapeutics for targeting cachexia. This review deals with the current understanding about the development of cachexia and nutritional support in those patients suffering with pancreatic cancer.
Cachexia ; Humans ; Korea ; Mortality ; Nutritional Support ; Pancreatic Neoplasms ; Prognosis ; Survival Rate ; Tumor Burden

Pancreatic cancer is the ninth common malignancy in South Korea. It has a dismal prognosis with a 5-year overall survival rate of less than 10%, and pancreatic cancer is associated with cancer cachexia, which is defined as the loss of muscle mass that is not reversible by conventional nutritional support. Cachexia is noted in over 85% of all pancreatic cancer patients and it is strongly related with the disease’s mortality. Nearly 30% of pancreatic cancer deaths are due to cachexia rather than being due to the tumor burden. Therefore, it is crucial to discover the mechanisms behind the development of muscle wasting in pancreatic cancer patients and find novel therapeutics for targeting cachexia. This review deals with the current understanding about the development of cachexia and nutritional support in those patients suffering with pancreatic cancer.
Cachexia ; Humans ; Korea ; Mortality ; Nutritional Support ; Pancreatic Neoplasms ; Prognosis ; Survival Rate ; Tumor Burden

OBJECTIVES: We conducted a protocol-based cohort study to evaluate the outcomes of interval debulking surgery (IDS) followed by paclitaxel-based hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) for the treatment of advanced-stage ovarian cancer. METHODS: From October 2015 to May 2018, 65 patients with stages IIIC–IV ovarian cancer were treated according to the study protocol. HIPEC was performed with paclitaxel (175 mg/m2) for 90 minutes, only in cases of optimal cytoreduction. RESULTS: Of 65 patients, 40 (61.5%) patients underwent neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC), 34 (52.3%) patients had a high tumor burden with a Fagotti score ≥8 at diagnostic laparoscopy, and 6 (9.2%) had definite stage IV metastasis and/or poor performance status before NAC. Twenty-seven (41.5%) patients underwent IDS followed by HIPEC. The mean duration of IDS with HIPEC was 543.8 (range, 277.0–915.0) minutes. Grade III/IV perioperative complications occurred in 7.4% (n=2)/3.7% (n=1) of patients and no cases of mortality were reported within 30 days postoperatively. The median progression-free survival was 21.3 months, and the median overall survival was not reached for those who received HIPEC. CONCLUSIONS: According to our study protocol, IDS followed by paclitaxel-based HIPEC as a first-line treatment appears to be feasible and safe for the treatment of advanced-stage ovarian cancer. Further evaluations of this procedure are required to assess its survival benefits.
Cohort Studies ; Disease-Free Survival ; Drug Therapy* ; Humans ; Laparoscopy ; Mortality ; Neoplasm Metastasis ; Ovarian Neoplasms* ; Paclitaxel ; Pilot Projects* ; Tumor Burden

OBJECTIVE: We investigated the outcomes of repeat stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) for metastatic brain tumors that locally recurred despite previous SRS, focusing on the tumor control.METHODS: A total of 114 patients with 176 locally recurring metastatic brain tumors underwent repeat SRS after previous SRS. The mean age was 59.4 years (range, 33 to 85), and there were 68 male and 46 female patients. The primary cancer types were non-small cell lung cancer (n=67), small cell lung cancer (n=12), gastrointestinal tract cancer (n=15), breast cancer (n=10), and others (n=10). The number of patients with a single recurring metastasis was 95 (79.8%), and another 19 had multiple recurrences. At the time of the repeat SRS, the mean volume of the locally recurring tumors was 5.94 mL (range, 0.42 to 29.94). We prescribed a mean margin dose of 17.04 Gy (range, 12 to 24) to the isodose line at the tumor border primarily using a 50% isodose line.RESULTS: After the repeat SRS, we obtained clinical and magnetic resonance imaging follow-up data for 84 patients (73.7%) with a total of 108 tumors. The tumor control rate was 53.5% (58 of the 108), and the median and mean progression-free survival (PFS) periods were 246 and 383 days, respectively. The prognostic factors that were significantly related to better tumor control were prescription radiation dose of 16 Gy (p=0.000) and tumor volume less than both 4 mL (p=0.001) and 10 mL at the repeat SRS (p=0.008). The overall survival (OS) periods for all 114 patients after repeat SRS varied from 1 to 56 months, and median and mean OS periods were 229 and 404 days after the repeat SRS, respectively. The main cause of death was systemic problems including pulmonary dysfunction (n=58, 51%), and the identified direct or suspected brain-related death rate was around 20%.CONCLUSION: The tumor control following repeat SRS for locally recurring metastatic brain tumors after a previous SRS is relatively lower than that for primary SRS. However, both low tumor volume and high prescription radiation dose were significantly related to the tumor control following repeat SRS for these tumors after previous SRS, which is a general understanding of primary SRS for metastatic brain tumors.
Brain Neoplasms ; Brain ; Breast Neoplasms ; Carcinoma, Non-Small-Cell Lung ; Cause of Death ; Disease-Free Survival ; Female ; Follow-Up Studies ; Gastrointestinal Neoplasms ; Humans ; Magnetic Resonance Imaging ; Male ; Mortality ; Neoplasm Metastasis ; Prescriptions ; Radiosurgery ; Recurrence ; Small Cell Lung Carcinoma ; Tumor Burden

We present our experience on the hypofractionated Gamma Knife radiosurgery (FGKS) for large skull base meningioma as an initial treatment. We retrospectively reviewed 23 patients with large skull base meningioma ≥10 cm³ who underwent FGKS as the initial treatment option. The mean volume of tumors prior to radiosurgery was 21.2±15.63 cm³ (range, 10.09~71.42). The median total margin dose and marginal dose per fraction were 18 Gy (range, 15~20) and 6 Gy (range, 5~6), respectively. Patients underwent three or four fractionations in consecutive days with the same Leksell® frame. The mean follow-up duration was 38 months (range, 17~78). There was no mortality. At the last follow-up, the tumor volume was stationary in 15 patients (65.2%) and had decreased in 8 patients (34.8%). Six patients who had cranial neuropathy at the time of FGKS showed improvement at the last clinical follow-up. Following FGKS, 4 patients (17%) had new cranial neuropathy. The trigeminal neuropathy was the most common and all were transient. The mean Karnofsky Performance Status score at pre-FGKS and the last clinical follow-up was 97.0±10.4 points (median, 100) and 98.6±6.9 (median, 100) points, respectively. FGKS has showed satisfactory tumor control with functional preservation for large skull base meningiomas. Further prospective studies of large cohorts with long term follow-up are required to clarify the efficacy in the tumor control and functional outcome as well as radiation toxicity.
Cohort Studies ; Cranial Nerve Diseases ; Dose Hypofractionation ; Follow-Up Studies ; Humans ; Karnofsky Performance Status ; Meningioma* ; Mortality ; Prospective Studies ; Radiosurgery* ; Retrospective Studies ; Skull Base* ; Skull* ; Trigeminal Nerve Diseases ; Tumor Burden

To determine the reason for the different mortality trends of ischemic heart disease (IHD) for China between Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 and GBD2013, and to improve garbage code (GC) redistribution. All data were obtained from the disease surveillance points system, and two proportions for assigning chronic pulmonary heart disease (PHD) as GC to IHD were from GBD2010 and GBD2013, which were different for years before 2004. By using the GBD2013 approach, the age-standard mortality rate (ASMR) increased by 100.21% in 1991, 44.81% in 1996, and 42.47% in 2000 in comparison with the GBD2010 approach. The different methods of chronic PHD redistribution impacted the trend of IHD mortality, which elevated it in the earlier 1990s by using the GBD2013 approach. Thus, improving the redistribution of GC as a key step in mortality statistics is important.
Algorithms ; China ; epidemiology ; Databases, Factual ; Global Burden of Disease ; statistics & numerical data ; Humans ; Models, Biological ; Myocardial Ischemia ; classification ; epidemiology ; mortality ; Population Surveillance ; Time Factors