1.Latest Research Progress in ctDNA Detection for Clinical Diagnosis and Treatment of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer
Zuo LIANG ; Zhiqiang TONG ; Zhenhua YUE ; Xiaoming BAI
Journal of Modern Laboratory Medicine 2024;39(2):192-197
Non-small cell lung cancer(NSCLC)is a highly lethal malignant tumor that poses a serious threat to human health.Traditional methods for tumor diagnosis and treatment have many limitations.However,circulating tumor DNA(ctDNA)detection,a kind of liquid biopsy technology,has gained widespread attention in the field of NSCLC personalized therapy and monitoring due to its non-invasive,convenient,and comprehensive sensitivity.This article will review the latest research progress of ctDNA detection in the clinical diagnosis and treatment of NSCLC in recent years,including its applications in early screening,disease diagnosis,tumor mutation monitoring,treatment efficacy evaluation,and prognosis assessment.
2.Finite element model establishment and stress analysis of lumbar-sacral intervertebral disc in ankylosing spondylitis
Zhijie KANG ; Zhenhua CAO ; Yangyang XU ; Yunfeng ZHANG ; Feng JIN ; Baoke SU ; Lidong WANG ; Ling TONG ; Qinghua LIU ; Yuan FANG ; Lirong SHA ; Liang LIANG ; Mengmeng LI ; Yifei DU ; Lin LIN ; Haiyan WANG ; Xiaohe LI ; Zhijun LI
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2024;28(6):840-846
BACKGROUND:Ankylosing spondylitis is a chronic inflammatory disease with chronic rheumatic immunity.Soft tissue ossification and fusion and spinal stiffness can cause biomechanical changes. OBJECTIVE:To reconstruct the lumbar-sacral intervertebral disc in ankylosing spondylitis patients with lumbar kyphosis by finite element analysis,and to study the range of motion of each segment of T11-S1 and the biomechanical characteristics of annulus fibrosus and nucleus pulposus. METHODS:The imaging data were obtained from an ankylosing spondylitis patient with lumbar kyphosis.The original CT image data of continuously scanned spine were imported into Mimics 21.0 in DICOM format,and T11-S1 was reconstructed respectively.The established model was imported into 3-Matic software in the format of"Stl"to reconstruct the intervertebral disc,and the fibrous intervertebral disc model was obtained.The improved model was further imported into Hypermesh software,and the vertebra,nucleus pulposus,annulus fibrosus and ligament were mesh-divided.After the material properties were given,the model was imported into ABAQUS software to observe the range of motion of each vertebral body in seven different working conditions of T11-S1,and analyze the biomechanical characteristics of each segment of annulus fibrosus and nucleus pulposus. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)The range of motion of L1 vertebrae was higher than that of other vertebrae under six different working conditions:extension,forward flexion,rotation(left and right),and lateral flexion(left and right).The maximum range of motion was 2.18° during L1 vertebral flexion,and the minimum range of motion was 0.12° during L5 vertebral extension.(2)The annular fiber flexion at L2-L3 segments was greater than the extension(P<0.05),and the annular fiber flexion at L3-L4 and L4-L5 segments was less than the extension(P<0.05).The left rotation of L1-L2 annular fibers was greater than the right rotation(P<0.05).The left flexion of the annulus was greater than the right flexion in L1-L2,L2-L3,L3-L4,L4-L5 and L5-S1 segments(P<0.05).(3)The nucleus pulposus stresses of T11-L12,L1-L2,L2-L3,L3-L4 and L4-L5 segments in forward flexion were greater than in extension(P<0.05).The left rotation of T12-L1 and L3-L4 segments was smaller than the right rotation(P<0.05),and that of T11-T12,L1-L2,and L2-L3 segments was larger than the right rotation(P<0.05).The left flexion was larger than the right flexion in the T11-S1 segment.(4)It is concluded that in ankylosing spondylitis patients with lumbar kyphosis,the minimum range of motion of the vertebral body is located at the L5 vertebral body in extension.To prevent fractures,it is recommended to avoid exercise in the extension position.During the onset of lumbar kyphosis in patients with ankylosing spondylitis,the maximum stress of the annulus fibrosus and nucleus pulposus is located in the L1-L2 segment,which is fixed and will not alter with the change of body position.The late surgical treatment and correction of deformity should focus on releasing the pressure of the annulus fibrosus and nucleus pulposus in this segment to avoid the rupture of the annulus fibrosus and the injury of the nucleus pulposus.
3.The application of minimally-invasive interventional technique in the clinical treatment of symptomatic polycystic liver disease and its recent advances
Yining LIANG ; Zhenhua DU ; Zhilong WANG ; Taiyang ZUO
Journal of Interventional Radiology 2024;33(2):208-212
Clinically,polycystic liver disease(PLD)is a rare genetic disease.Most patients have no clinical symptoms,and a few patients with symptomatic PLD complicated by serious complications need to be treated.Liver transplantation is the only radical treatment for patients with symptomatic PLD.However,most patients are not able to receive liver transplantation due to a lack of donors,expensive surgical cost,and high risk.Because of its many advantages such as less trauma,fast recovery,repeatable,high safety and fewer complications,the minimally-invasive interventional techniques,represented by percutaneous cyst sclerotherapy and transcatheter arterial embolization,have been successfully employed for the treatment of symptomatic PLD in recent years,moreover,its clinical effect has been recognized by both doctors and patients.Therefore,as it can improve the local symptoms and the quality of life of patients,the therapy using minimally-invasive interventional technique will become the development direction for the treatment of symptomatic PLD.This article aims to make a comprehensive review concerning the principle,mechanism,guiding mode,clinical application,advantages and disadvantages,and related complications of percutaneous cyst sclerotherapy and transcatheter arterial embolization therapy in the treatment of symptomatic PLD.
4.Comprehensive evaluation of single-anastomosis duodenal-ileal bypass with sleeve gastrectomy in obese patients based on efficacy and nutrition
Lifu HU ; Lun WANG ; Shixing LI ; Yang LIU ; Zheng ZHANG ; Minghao XIAO ; Zhenhua ZHANG ; Zhiqiang WEI ; Liang CUI ; Tao JIANG
Chinese Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery 2024;27(9):945-952
Objective:To evaluate the 1-year postoperative efficacy and nutritional indicators of single-anastomosis duodeno-ileal bypass with sleeve gastrectomy (SADI-S) in obese patients.Methods:This retrospective observational study included patients with a body mass index (BMI) of ≥40.0 kg/m 2 regardless of other related metabolic diseases and patients with severe type 2 diabetes and a BMI between 27.5 and 40.0 kg/m 2. The clinical data of 66 obese patients who underwent SADI-S at the Bariatric and Metabolic Surgery Department of China-Japan Union Hospital of Jilin University from November 2018 to May 2022 were collected, including 53 cases of da Vinci robotic surgery and 13 cases of laparoscopic surgery. The patients comprised 38 men and 28 women with a median age of 35 (18–61) years and a mean preoperative BMI of 42.93 ± 6.82 kg/m 2. A total of 38 patients had type 2 diabetes, and 46 had hyperuricemia, 45 had hypertension, 35 had hyperlipidemia, 12 had hypercholesterolemia, and 12 had a high low-density lipoprotein (LDL) level. The main observation indicators were (1) intraoperative and postoperative conditions; (2) weight loss outcomes, including body weight, BMI, excess body weight loss (%EWL), and total body weight loss (%TWL) at 3, 6, and 12 months after surgery; (3) effects of treatment on metabolic disease; and (4) changes in nutrient indicators. Results:(1) Intraoperative and postoperative conditions: All patients successfully underwent SADI-S with neither conversion to laparotomy nor death. Four (6.1%) patients developed postoperative complications, and all of them recovered and were discharged after conservative or surgical treatment. (2) Weight loss outcomes: %EWL at 3, 6, and 12 months after surgery was 62.07 ± 26.56, 85.93 ± 27.92, and 106.65 ± 29.65, respectively, and %TWL was 22.67 ± 4.94, 32.10 ± 5.18, and 40.56 ± 7.89, respectively. Body weight and BMI 3 to 12 months after surgery were significantly lower than those before surgery (all P < 0.001). (3) Effect of treatment on metabolic disease: 3 to 12 months after surgery, fasting blood sugar, HbA1c, uric acid, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, triglycerides, total cholesterol, LDL, and other indicators were significantly lower than those before surgery (all P < 0.05). Twelve months after surgery, the remission rates of diabetes, hyperuricemia, hypertension, hypertriglyceridemia, hypercholesterolemia, and high LDL were 100% (38/38), 65.2% (30/46), 62.2% (28/45), 94.3% (33/35), 100% (12/12), and 100% (12/12), respectively. (4) Changes in nutrient indicators: Compared with the preoperative nutrient levels, the hemoglobin and hematocrit levels were lower at 3 to 12 months after surgery, the total protein level was lower at 6 to 12 months after surgery, the albumin level was lower at 6 months after surgery, and the ferritin level was lower at 3 months after surgery. The differences were statistically significant (all P < 0.05). The incidence of anemia was 6.1% (4/66), hypoalbuminemia was 4.5% (3/66), and ferritin deficiency was 4.5% (3/66), all of which were improved or normalized through conservative treatment. Twelve months after surgery, 30 (45.5%) patients had vitamin A deficiency, 17 (25.8%) had vitamin E deficiency, 11 (16.7%) had folic acid deficiency, 2 had potassium deficiency (3.0%), 3 (4.5%) had calcium deficiency, 2 (3.0%) had magnesium deficiency, 9 (13.6%) had iron deficiency, and 16 (24.2%) had zinc deficiency. However, no relevant clinical symptoms occurred. Conclusions:SADI-S has a very significant effect on weight loss and alleviation of metabolic diseases. Nutrient deficiencies after SADI-S mainly involve vitamin A, vitamin E, zinc, and folic acid. The long-term efficacy and safety of SADI-S still need further follow-up observation.
5.Construction and validation of an in-hospital mortality risk prediction model for patients receiving VA-ECMO:a retrospective multi-center case-control study
Yue GE ; Jianwei LI ; Hongkai LIANG ; Liusheng HOU ; Liuer ZUO ; Zhen CHEN ; Jianhai LU ; Xin ZHAO ; Jingyi LIANG ; Lan PENG ; Jingna BAO ; Jiaxin DUAN ; Li LIU ; Keqing MAO ; Zhenhua ZENG ; Hongbin HU ; Zhongqing CHEN
Journal of Southern Medical University 2024;44(3):491-498
Objective To investigate the risk factors of in-hospital mortality and establish a risk prediction model for patients receiving venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation(VA-ECMO).Methods We retrospectively collected the data of 302 patients receiving VA-ECMO in ICU of 3 hospitals in Guangdong Province between January,2015 and January,2022 using a convenience sampling method.The patients were divided into a derivation cohort(201 cases)and a validation cohort(101 cases).Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to analyze the risk factors for in-hospital death of these patients,based on which a risk prediction model was established in the form of a nomogram.The receiver operator characteristic(ROC)curve,calibration curve and clinical decision curve were used to evaluate the discrimination ability,calibration and clinical validity of this model.Results The in-hospital mortality risk prediction model was established based the risk factors including hypertension(OR=3.694,95%CI:1.582-8.621),continuous renal replacement therapy(OR=9.661,95%CI:4.103-22.745),elevated Na2+ level(OR=1.048,95%CI:1.003-1.095)and increased hemoglobin level(OR=0.987,95%CI:0.977-0.998).In the derivation cohort,the area under the ROC curve(AUC)of this model was 0.829(95%CI:0.770-0.889),greater than those of the 4 single factors(all AUC<0.800),APACHE Ⅱ Score(AUC=0.777,95%CI:0.714-0.840)and the SOFA Score(AUC=0.721,95%CI:0.647-0.796).The results of internal validation showed that the AUC of the model was 0.774(95%CI:0.679-0.869),and the goodness of fit test showed a good fitting of this model(χ2=4.629,P>0.05).Conclusion The risk prediction model for in-hospital mortality of patients on VA-ECMO has good differentiation,calibration and clinical effectiveness and outperforms the commonly used disease severity scoring system,and thus can be used for assessing disease severity and prognostic risk level in critically ill patients.
6.Analysis on related factors for internal fixation failure in proximal femoral nail antirotation for treating intertrochanteric fracture
Xian WANG ; Ke SUN ; Zhenhua LIN ; Bin LIANG
Chongqing Medicine 2024;53(8):1226-1230
Objective To investigate the risk factors of internal fixation failure in proximal femoral nail antirotation (PFNA) for treating intertrochanteric fracture.Methods The imageological data of 179 patients with intertrochanteric fracture receiving PFNA internal fixation were analyzed retrospectively.The univariate analysis was adopted to analyze the influence of the gender,degree of osteoporosis,AO/OTA fracture type,top apex distance (TAD),postoperative coxa vara,lateral wall state,fracture reduction situation and screw blade position on the internal fixation failure.The logistic regression model was constructed.The risk factors of internal fixation failure were analyzed.Results Among 179 patients,the internal fixation failure occurred in 16 cases.The univariate analysis showed the AO/OTA fracture type,TAD,postoperative coxa vara,lateral wall state,fracture reduction effect and screw blade location were related with the internal fixation failure (P<0.05).The logistic regression analysis prompted that postoperative coxa vara (OR=6.97,95%CI:2.24-21.68,P=0.001) and the lateral wall breakage (OR=3.08,95%CI:1.03-9.22,P=0.045) were the risk factors of internal fixation failure in femoral intertrochanteric fracture.Conclusion Coxa vara and lateral wall breakage are the risk factors of internal fixation failure in PENA for treating femoral intertrochanteric fracture,and the operation reduction should avoid the coxa vara appearance.
7.Risk factors and prediction model of acute respiratory failure in patients with hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis
Yaobing LIANG ; Zhenhua FU ; Ziyue ZHAO ; Jianming LUO ; Dongyu CHENG ; Haixing JIANG ; Shanyu QIN
Tianjin Medical Journal 2024;52(11):1183-1187
Objective To analyze risk factors of acute respiratory failure(ARF)in patients with hypertriglyceridemia acute pancreatitis(HTG-AP)and construct a risk prediction model.Methods A total of 222 HTG-AP patients were included in this study and divided into the non-ARF group(176 cases)and the ARF group(46 cases)according to diagnostic guidelines for ARF.Clinical data of the two groups were compared and the predictive factors were screened.These selected factors were then utilized in a multivariate Logistic regression analysis to construct a Logistic regression model.Subsequent evaluation of the model′s predictive ability,accuracy and clinical utility was conducted through ROC,curve analysis,calibration plot examination and decision curve analysis(DCA),respectively.Results Compared with the non-ARF group,the levels of high density lipoprotein cholesterol(HDL-C),low density lipoprotein cholesterol(LDL)-C and albumin(ALB)were decreased in the ARF group(P<0.05),while the levels of creatinine(Cr),urea nitrogen(BUN),aspartate aminotransferase(AST)and C-reactive protein(CRP)were increased,and the incidence of pleural fluid and ascites was also increased(P<0.05).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that higher levels of Cr and AST,lower levels of ALB,HDL-C and ascites were independent risk factors for HTG-AP complicated ARF(P<0.05).Based on these results,a column-line prediction model for HTG-AP complicated ARF was established.After internal verification,the area under curve(AUC)of receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve of the nomogram model was 0.952(95%CI:0.923-0.981),the Youden index was 0.808 and the sensitivity and specificity were 93.33%and 87.43%,respectively.The calibration curve showed that the probability of HTG-AP concurrent ARF predicted by the model was in good agreement with the actual probability.The DCA curve showed that the model had certain clinical value.Conclusion The nomogram prediction model combined could provide a scheme for the clinical prevention of HTG-AP complicated with ARF.
8.Clinical effects of combined tissue flap transplantation for repairing giant chest wall defects
Junyi YU ; Dajiang SONG ; Xu LIU ; Zhiyuan WANG ; Zan LI ; Yixin ZHANG ; Bo ZHOU ; Chunliu LYU ; Yuanyuan TANG ; Liang YI ; Zhenhua LUO ; Liyi YANG
Chinese Journal of Burns 2024;40(7):650-656
Objective:To investigate the clinical effects of combined tissue flap transplantation in repairing giant chest wall defects.Methods:This study was a retrospective observational study. From August 2013 to December 2020, 31 patients with chest wall tumor or radiation ulcer after radical resection of chest wall tumor and conformed to the inclusion criteria were admitted to the Department of Breast Oncoplastic Surgery of Hunan Cancer Hospital, including 12 males and 19 females, aged 25-71 years. After resection of tumor or ulcer and wound debridement, the area of secondary chest wall defect was 300-600 cm 2 with length of 16-35 cm and width of 16-32 cm. According to the actual situation of the patients and the preoperative design, the chest wall defects were repaired with the flexible combination of perforator flaps and myocutaneous flaps from different donor sites, and the area of the combined tissue flap was 260-540 cm 2 with length of 20-30 cm and width of 13-20 cm. Free posteromedial thigh perforator flap+free anterolateral thigh myocutaneous flap were used in 2 patients, free deep inferior epigastric artery perforator flap+free anterolateral thigh myocutaneous flap were used in 5 patients, free deep inferior epigastric artery perforator flap+pedicled rectus abdominis myocutaneous flap+free anterolateral thigh myocutaneous flap were used in 7 patients, free deep inferior epigastric artery perforator flap+pedicled rectus abdominis myocutaneous flap+pedicled latissimus dorsi myocutaneous flap were used in 2 patients, and bilateral free anterolateral thigh myocutaneous flaps were used in 15 patients. For the remaining small area of superficial tissue defect after being repaired by combined tissue flaps, skin graft was used to repair or delayed local flap transfering was performed after the tissue flaps survived and edema subsided. The appropriate blood vessels in the donor and recipient sites were selected for anastomosis to reconstruct the blood supply of tissue flaps. The wounds in the donor sites of tissue flaps that can be directly sutured were sutured directly; for those that cannot be sutured directly, the skin grafting or delayed suture was performed. The anastomosis of blood vessels in the recipient sites, operation length, and postoperative hospital stay were recorded. The survivals of tissue flaps and skin grafts, the shape and texture of reconstructed chest wall, the wound healing, scar formation, and function of donor sites of tissue flaps, and the scar formation of the donor sites of skin grafts were observed after operation. Tumor recurrence and death of recurrent patients were followed up after operation. Results:The blood vessels in the recipient sites were anastomosed as follows: proximal internal thoracic vessels for 24 times, distal internal thoracic vessels for 12 times, trunk of thoracodorsal vessels for 4 times, anterior serratus branches of thoracodorsal vessels for 8 times, and thoracoacromial vessels for 12 times. The operation length was 6.0 to 8.5 hours, and the postoperative hospital stay was 9 to 21 days. Necrosis at the edge of partial tissue flaps occurred in 4 patients after operation, which healed after dressing change, and the tissue flaps and skin grafts of the other patients survived completely. The shape and texture of the reconstructed chest wall were good. Four patients had poor wound healing in the donor sites of abdominal tissue flaps, which healed after dressing change and local drainage. Only linear scar was left in the donor sites of all tissue flaps, and there was no obvious dysfunction in the donor sites of tissue flaps. Mild hypertrophic scar was left in the donor sites of skin grafts. During follow-up of 9 to 36 months after operation, 6 patients had tumor recurrence, and the recurrence time was 5 to 20 months after operation. After comprehensive treatment for patients with tumor recurrence, 3 patients died.Conclusions:Transplantation of combined tissue flaps in repairing the giant chest wall defects can shorten the time of total operation and hospital stay, and avoid multiple operations. After operation, patients had good chest wall appearance, with reduced tumor recurrence in patients with chest wall tumor.
9.Comprehensive evaluation of single-anastomosis duodenal-ileal bypass with sleeve gastrectomy in obese patients based on efficacy and nutrition
Lifu HU ; Lun WANG ; Shixing LI ; Yang LIU ; Zheng ZHANG ; Minghao XIAO ; Zhenhua ZHANG ; Zhiqiang WEI ; Liang CUI ; Tao JIANG
Chinese Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery 2024;27(9):945-952
Objective:To evaluate the 1-year postoperative efficacy and nutritional indicators of single-anastomosis duodeno-ileal bypass with sleeve gastrectomy (SADI-S) in obese patients.Methods:This retrospective observational study included patients with a body mass index (BMI) of ≥40.0 kg/m 2 regardless of other related metabolic diseases and patients with severe type 2 diabetes and a BMI between 27.5 and 40.0 kg/m 2. The clinical data of 66 obese patients who underwent SADI-S at the Bariatric and Metabolic Surgery Department of China-Japan Union Hospital of Jilin University from November 2018 to May 2022 were collected, including 53 cases of da Vinci robotic surgery and 13 cases of laparoscopic surgery. The patients comprised 38 men and 28 women with a median age of 35 (18–61) years and a mean preoperative BMI of 42.93 ± 6.82 kg/m 2. A total of 38 patients had type 2 diabetes, and 46 had hyperuricemia, 45 had hypertension, 35 had hyperlipidemia, 12 had hypercholesterolemia, and 12 had a high low-density lipoprotein (LDL) level. The main observation indicators were (1) intraoperative and postoperative conditions; (2) weight loss outcomes, including body weight, BMI, excess body weight loss (%EWL), and total body weight loss (%TWL) at 3, 6, and 12 months after surgery; (3) effects of treatment on metabolic disease; and (4) changes in nutrient indicators. Results:(1) Intraoperative and postoperative conditions: All patients successfully underwent SADI-S with neither conversion to laparotomy nor death. Four (6.1%) patients developed postoperative complications, and all of them recovered and were discharged after conservative or surgical treatment. (2) Weight loss outcomes: %EWL at 3, 6, and 12 months after surgery was 62.07 ± 26.56, 85.93 ± 27.92, and 106.65 ± 29.65, respectively, and %TWL was 22.67 ± 4.94, 32.10 ± 5.18, and 40.56 ± 7.89, respectively. Body weight and BMI 3 to 12 months after surgery were significantly lower than those before surgery (all P < 0.001). (3) Effect of treatment on metabolic disease: 3 to 12 months after surgery, fasting blood sugar, HbA1c, uric acid, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, triglycerides, total cholesterol, LDL, and other indicators were significantly lower than those before surgery (all P < 0.05). Twelve months after surgery, the remission rates of diabetes, hyperuricemia, hypertension, hypertriglyceridemia, hypercholesterolemia, and high LDL were 100% (38/38), 65.2% (30/46), 62.2% (28/45), 94.3% (33/35), 100% (12/12), and 100% (12/12), respectively. (4) Changes in nutrient indicators: Compared with the preoperative nutrient levels, the hemoglobin and hematocrit levels were lower at 3 to 12 months after surgery, the total protein level was lower at 6 to 12 months after surgery, the albumin level was lower at 6 months after surgery, and the ferritin level was lower at 3 months after surgery. The differences were statistically significant (all P < 0.05). The incidence of anemia was 6.1% (4/66), hypoalbuminemia was 4.5% (3/66), and ferritin deficiency was 4.5% (3/66), all of which were improved or normalized through conservative treatment. Twelve months after surgery, 30 (45.5%) patients had vitamin A deficiency, 17 (25.8%) had vitamin E deficiency, 11 (16.7%) had folic acid deficiency, 2 had potassium deficiency (3.0%), 3 (4.5%) had calcium deficiency, 2 (3.0%) had magnesium deficiency, 9 (13.6%) had iron deficiency, and 16 (24.2%) had zinc deficiency. However, no relevant clinical symptoms occurred. Conclusions:SADI-S has a very significant effect on weight loss and alleviation of metabolic diseases. Nutrient deficiencies after SADI-S mainly involve vitamin A, vitamin E, zinc, and folic acid. The long-term efficacy and safety of SADI-S still need further follow-up observation.
10.Construction and validation of an in-hospital mortality risk prediction model for patients receiving VA-ECMO:a retrospective multi-center case-control study
Yue GE ; Jianwei LI ; Hongkai LIANG ; Liusheng HOU ; Liuer ZUO ; Zhen CHEN ; Jianhai LU ; Xin ZHAO ; Jingyi LIANG ; Lan PENG ; Jingna BAO ; Jiaxin DUAN ; Li LIU ; Keqing MAO ; Zhenhua ZENG ; Hongbin HU ; Zhongqing CHEN
Journal of Southern Medical University 2024;44(3):491-498
Objective To investigate the risk factors of in-hospital mortality and establish a risk prediction model for patients receiving venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation(VA-ECMO).Methods We retrospectively collected the data of 302 patients receiving VA-ECMO in ICU of 3 hospitals in Guangdong Province between January,2015 and January,2022 using a convenience sampling method.The patients were divided into a derivation cohort(201 cases)and a validation cohort(101 cases).Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to analyze the risk factors for in-hospital death of these patients,based on which a risk prediction model was established in the form of a nomogram.The receiver operator characteristic(ROC)curve,calibration curve and clinical decision curve were used to evaluate the discrimination ability,calibration and clinical validity of this model.Results The in-hospital mortality risk prediction model was established based the risk factors including hypertension(OR=3.694,95%CI:1.582-8.621),continuous renal replacement therapy(OR=9.661,95%CI:4.103-22.745),elevated Na2+ level(OR=1.048,95%CI:1.003-1.095)and increased hemoglobin level(OR=0.987,95%CI:0.977-0.998).In the derivation cohort,the area under the ROC curve(AUC)of this model was 0.829(95%CI:0.770-0.889),greater than those of the 4 single factors(all AUC<0.800),APACHE Ⅱ Score(AUC=0.777,95%CI:0.714-0.840)and the SOFA Score(AUC=0.721,95%CI:0.647-0.796).The results of internal validation showed that the AUC of the model was 0.774(95%CI:0.679-0.869),and the goodness of fit test showed a good fitting of this model(χ2=4.629,P>0.05).Conclusion The risk prediction model for in-hospital mortality of patients on VA-ECMO has good differentiation,calibration and clinical effectiveness and outperforms the commonly used disease severity scoring system,and thus can be used for assessing disease severity and prognostic risk level in critically ill patients.

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