1.Application of time series and machine learning models in predicting the trend of sickness absenteeism among primary and secondary school students in Shanghai
WANG Zhengzhong, ZHANG Zhe, ZHOU Xinyi, YUAN Linlin, ZHAI Yani, SUN Lijing, LUO Chunyan
Chinese Journal of School Health 2025;46(3):426-430
Objective:
To analyze the temporal variation patterns of sickness absenteeism among primary and secondary school students in Shanghai, so as to explore models suitable for predicting peaks and intensity of absenteeism rates.
Methods:
The seasonal and trend decomposition using loess (STL) method was used to analyze the seasonal and long term trend changes in sickness absenteeism among primary and secondary school students from September 1 in 2010 to June 30 in 2018, in Shanghai. A hierarchical clustering method based on Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) was employed to classify absenteeism symptoms with similar temporal patterns. Based on historical data, the study constructed and evaluated different time series algorithms and machine learning models to optimize the accuracy of predicting the trend of sickness absenteeism.
Results:
During the research period, the average new absenteeism rate due to illness was 16.86 per 10 000 person day for every academic year, and the trend of sickness absenteeism exhibited both seasonality and a long term upward trend, reaching its highest point in the 2017 academic year (22.47 per 10 000 person day). The symptoms of absenteeism were divided into three categories: high incidence in winter and spring (respiratory symptoms, fever and general discomfort, etc.), high incidence in summer (eye symptoms, nosebleeds, etc.) and those without obvious seasonality (skin symptoms, accidental injuries, etc.).The constructed time series models effectively predicted the trend of absenteeism due to illness, although the accuracy of predicting peak intensity was relatively low. Among them, the multi layer perceptron (MLP) model performed the best, with an root mean squared error (RMSE) of 8.96 and an mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.37, reducing 36.51% and 39.02% compared to the baseline model.
Conclusion
Time series models and machine learning algorithms could effectively predict the trend of sickness absenteeism, and corresponding prevention and control measures can be taken for absenteeism caused by different symptoms during peak periods.
2.Research Strategies for the Traditional Chinese Medicine Pathomechanism Syndrome Differentiation System from the Perspective of Systems Thinking
Ziyi ZHOU ; Zhe FENG ; Xueping ZHOU
Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2025;66(8):765-768
Given the limitations of traditional scientific research methods in revealing the complex and dynamic evolution of disease pathomechanisms, this paper analyzes the current state and challenges of the traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) pathomechanism syndrome differentiation system within the framework of systems thinking. The challenges include insufficient experimental models, low data standardization, complex nonlinear characteristics, and difficulties in integrating expert experience. By leveraging qualitative-quantitative comprehensive integration methods, this paper proposes specific research strategies, including constructing qualitative models of pathomechanism evolution, employing mathematical models for validation and quantitative analysis to reveal pathomechanism patterns, and incorporating a "human-centered" approach to achieve human-machine collaboration. These strategies aim to provide insights for the modernization and development of a new TCM pathomechanism syndrome differentiation system.
3.Ten surgical pearls adapted from ancient Chinese allusions in managing severe proliferative diabetic retinopathy
Zhe CHEN ; Chan WU ; Yan ZHOU ; Shiqun LIN ; Xingyu XIAO ; Rongping DAI
International Eye Science 2025;25(5):698-705
AIM: To summarize 10 surgical pearls for managing proliferative diabetic retinopathy(PDR)adapted from the ancient Chinese allusions and analyze the application of these pearls in a real-world fashion.METHODS: Retrospective, noncomparative, interventional study. Ten surgical pearls were summarized and adapted from the ancient Chinese philosophy. Totally 346 cases(443 eyes)that underwent pars plana vitrectomy(PPV)at our hospial from January 2016 to February 2024 were selected. Flexible combinations of these pearls were applied according to the specific condition of each patient during surgeries. The efficacy and safety were analyzed, as well as the application frequencies according to the existence of tractional retinal detachment or not.RESULTS: A total of 473 times of surgeries were performed on all the patients. According to ancient Chinese allusions, ten surgical pearls were summarized from these surgeries. All PPVs went smoothly with the application of different combinations. Finally, almost all proliferative membranes were successfully peeled except for 10 patients(11 eyes), who went through strategy No.10(minimal membranectomy)that, only necessary relaxation incisions were made with most of the proliferative membranes left on purpose. The final visual acuities were mostly improved or stable(1.92±0.83 LogMAR preoperatively vs 1.16±0.85 LogMAR postoperatively, P<0.01). Postoperative complications mainly included early inflammatory responses in the anterior chamber and nuclear sclerosis. Recurrent vitreous hemorrhage, retinal detachment, and hyphema or neovascular glaucoma occurred in 1.9%(9/473), 3.2%(15/473), 0.4%(2/473)and 0.4%(2/473)times of PPVs, respectively. After 12/473(2.5%)times of PPVs, retinal detachment at the macular area still existed, and multiple times of subsequent PPVs were conducted. Final retinal attachment at the macular area was realized in 98.9% eyes. Those 5 unattached eyes were with heavily reproliferated membranes and subsequent tractional retinal detachment recurrence under the oil, and three of them were scleral buckled additionally.CONCLUSION:These 10 surgical strategies and technique pearls were mostly effective and safe in the management of severe PDR patients. They were relatively easy to be memorized and applicated once the meaning of each Chinese idiom was understood. One can use different combinations flexibly according to a patient's specific condition.
4.Epidemiological and etiological characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, 2010‒2023
Shuang FENG ; Xiaobin REN ; Zhe WANG ; Zhaokai HE ; Yanyang TAO ; Qingjun KAO ; Zhou SUN
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(2):129-134
ObjectiveTo analyze the epidemiological characteristics and trends of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in Hangzhou, so as to provide an evidence for developing effective prevention and control measures and evaluating the control effects. MethodsThe incidence data of HFMD in Hangzhou were collected from the Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System of China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. Descriptive epidemiology was applied to analyze the temporal, spatial and demographic distribution characteristics and etiology monitoring results of HFMD cases in Hangzhou from 2010 to 2023. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trends of incidence rate of HFMD. Furthermore, circular distribution method was utilized to calculate the incidence peak of HFMD. ResultsFrom 2010 to 2023, the average annual reported incidence rate of HFMD in Hangzhou was 138.85/100 000, the proportion of severe cases was 0.04%, the mortality rate was 0.01/100 000, and the case fatality rate was 5.30/100 000. Both the total incidence rate and the incidence rate by sex showed an increasing trend. The annual reported incidence rate in males (158.72/100 000) was higher than that in females (117.61/100 000). The reported incidence rate showed a significant seasonal characteristic, with summer being the peak of epidemic. The results of surveillance samples suggested that the prevalence of HFMD in Hangzhou is characterized by the co-existence of multiple pathogens, with EV-A71 and CV-A16 being the dominant pathogens in the previous years and CV-A6 being the dominant pathogen since 2018. The proportion of EV-A71 in severe cases (77.19%) was higher than that in ordinary cases (15.37%), in addition, its proportion in ordinary cases, severe cases, and fatal cases all showed a decreasing trend. ConclusionThe incidence rate of HFMD in Hangzhou is still high, so it’s still necessary to continue to strengthen the prevention and control measures for key populations. In recent years, CV-A6 has been the main prevalent pathogen in Hangzhou. Further efforts in pathogen detection and analysis should be enhanced in the future.
5.Analysis of the monitoring results of radiation health technical service quality in Jiangxi Province, 2022-2024
Zhe HUANG ; Ning ZHOU ; Lingling GUO ; Zhongwen XU ; Lei DENG
Chinese Journal of Radiological Health 2025;34(3):390-394
Objective To access the current situation of the service capacity of radiation health technical service institutions in Jiangxi Province, analyze the existing problems of these institutions, and provide a scientific basis for standardizing the management of such institutions and improving their service capability. Methods A total of 11 radiation health technical service institutions in Jiangxi Province in the National Occupational Health Technical Service Organization Management Information System were selected as the monitoring objects. During the period from 2022 to 2024, 5-6 technical service institutions were selected each year and comprehensively evaluated and inspected using a checklist formulated by the state. Results Among the 16 quality monitoring results of 11 institutions, 2 (12.5%) were rated as excellent, 12 (75%) as qualified, and 2 (12.5%) as unqualified. The risk level assessment identified 7 (43.75%) high-risk institutions, 9 (56.25%) medium-risk institutions, and 0 (0%) low-risk institutions. Conclusion The overall service capacity of radiation health technical service institutions in Jiangxi Province needs to be improved. Notably, institutions within the health system, such as centers for disease control and prevention, show significant shortcomings in both on-site and laboratory testing capabilities.
6.Preliminary investigation on a method for determining the cumulative dose of low-energy neutrons independently
Lei DENG ; Faming CAO ; Zhe WANG ; Yu TU ; Ning ZHOU
Chinese Journal of Radiological Health 2025;34(4):578-583
Objective To study a method for determining the cumulative dose of low-energy neutrons ( < 100 keV) independently based on a CR-39 detector. Methods According to the theory of track etching kinetics, the differences in the tracks formed by low-energy neutrons or fast neutrons in a BN + CR-39 detector under broad-spectrum neutron irradiation were analyzed. A method was proposed to identify the tracks produced by low-energy neutrons under specific etching conditions while avoiding interference from fast neutron tracks. Results Experimental results demonstrated that the BN + CR-39 detector using TASTRAK PADC CR-39 track-detecting plastic could independently detect the tracks of low-energy neutrons when etched in a 6.25 mol/L NaOH solution for 1 h. The track density showed a good linear relationship with the ambient dose equivalent of low-energy neutrons, and the calibration coefficient was
7. Establishment of a rat model of myocardial hypertrophy by a modified abdominal aortic coarctation method
Yona-Ming HAO ; Han-Jun PEI ; Li LI ; Zhe ZHAO ; Lei GUO ; Cheng-Hui ZHOU
Acta Anatomica Sinica 2024;55(1):120-124
Objective To compare effectiveness between the modified and traditional pressure-overload myocardial hypertrophy(POMH) model by abdominal aorta coarctation (AAC) method. Methods Totally 45 rats were divided into three groups(n = 15 per group), sham group, traditional group, and modified group. In the traditional group, the diameter ol the abdominal aorta was narrowed to 0. 70 mm through a midline incision for 4 weeks; in the modified group, the diameter of the abdominal aorta was narrowed above the left kidney to 0. 45 mm for 1 week, and then the narrowing was lifted postoperatively. The cardiac index, heart weight (HW) /body weight (BW) and left ventricular index, left ventricular weight (LVW)/BW were measured from the heart specimens, and the cross-sectional area of cardiac myocytes, myocardial collagen area, and myocardial collagen area Iraction were measured in the pathological sections by HE staining and Masson staining. Results Compared with the sham group, the differences in end-systolic interventricular septum thickness (IVSs), left ventricular end-systolic posterior wall thickness (LVPWs), HW/BW, LVW/BW, cardiomyocyte cross-sectional area, myocardial collagen area, myocardial collagen area fraction, and brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) expression levels were statistically significant (P<0. 05) in the modilied and traditional groups of rats. The differences in these indices were not statistically significant between the modified and traditional groups (P>0. 05). Conclusion The modified abdominal aortic constriction method used in this experiment is time-saving, stable, homogeneous and easy to replicate, and is a more ideal approach to establish a rat model of POMH.
8.Therapeutic effect of PD-1 monoclonal antibody combined with cisplatin or gemcitabine chemotherapy in a mouse xenograft model with KRAS mutant non-small cell lung cancer A549 cells
LI Xiongbing ; ZHOU Ruifen ; LI Jiali ; WANG Hanjiao ; WANG Chao ; LI Jing ; CAO Zhe ; SHU Chengrong
Chinese Journal of Cancer Biotherapy 2024;31(4):371-376
[摘 要] 目的:探讨程序性死亡受体-1(PD-1)单抗联合顺铂或吉西他滨在KRAS基因突变非小细胞肺癌(NSCLC)A549细胞移植瘤小鼠模型治疗中的作用。方法:构建免疫系统-肿瘤双人源化A549细胞小鼠移植瘤模型,将60只小鼠按随机数字表法分成6组(10只/组),分别为对照组(200 μL/kg PBS)、PD-1单抗组(20 mg/kg PD-1单抗)、顺铂组(3 mg/kg顺铂)、PD-1单抗+顺铂组(20 mg/kg PD-1单抗+3 mg/kg顺铂)、吉西他滨组(30 mg/kg吉西他滨)和PD-1单抗+吉西他滨组(20 mg/kg PD-1单抗+30 mg/kg吉西他滨)。TUNEL和DAPI双染色法检测移植瘤组织中细胞凋亡水平,测量移植瘤体积和质量并计算肿瘤生长抑制率,免疫组化法检测移植瘤微血管密度(MVD)。结果:成功构建免疫系统-肿瘤双人源化NSCLC A549细胞小鼠移植瘤模型,PD-1单抗+顺铂组移植瘤的细胞凋亡率、肿瘤生长抑制率均最高,移植瘤体积、质量和MVD均最小,与其他5组小鼠比较差异均有统计学意义(均P<0.05)。结论:顺铂与PD-1单抗具有协同活性,而吉西他滨拮抗PD-1单抗的治疗作用。提示PD-1单抗联合顺铂对KRAS突变NSCLC A549细胞移植瘤小鼠的疗效更好。
9.Analysis of the consistency between CTA and DSA in evaluating GLASS staging of chronic limb-threatening ischemia
Yaqing HAN ; Ningning DING ; Li ZHOU ; Yuling CUI ; Cuilin YIN ; Zhe LIU ; Jian YANG ; Yamin LIU ; Yan MENG
Journal of Interventional Radiology 2024;33(3):300-303
Objective To analyze the consistency between computer tomography angiography(CTA)and digital subtraction angiography(DSA)in evaluating the global limb anatomic staging system(GLASS)stage of patients with chronic limb-threatening ischemia(CLTI).Methods The clinical data of patients with CLTI,who were admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University of China to receive treatment between January 2017 and December 2020,were retrospectively analyzed.Taking the DSA assessment as the gold standard,the consistency of CTA and DSA in evaluating the GLASS stage of patients with CLTI was analyzed.Results In the assessment of GLASS stage of CLTI,CTA showed strong agreement with DSA.The weighted Kappa coefficient of CTA and DSA for the staging of femoropopliteal segment was 0.798(95%CI=0.722-0.873,P<0.01),and the weighted Kappa coefficient of CTA and DSA for the staging of infrapopliteal artery segment was 0.785(95% CI=0.725-0.845,P<0.0l).For the overall staging of GLASS,the weighted Kappa coefficient of CTA and DSA was 0.832(95% CI=0.752-0.91 1,P<0.01).All the above results indicated that a very strong consistency existed between CTA and DSA in evaluating the GLASS stage of patients with CLTI.Conclusion CTA examination of lower limb can accurately evaluate GLASS score and stage of CLTI patient's target lesions,which is helpful in diagnosing lower extremity arteriosclerosis occlusion disease as well as in assessing the technical difficulty degree of its revascularization operation.(J Intervent Radiol,2024,33:300-303)
10.Efficacy and safety of recombinant human anti-SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibody injection(F61 injection)in the treatment of patients with COVID-19 combined with renal damage:a randomized controlled exploratory clinical study
Ding-Hua CHEN ; Chao-Fan LI ; Yue NIU ; Li ZHANG ; Yong WANG ; Zhe FENG ; Han-Yu ZHU ; Jian-Hui ZHOU ; Zhe-Yi DONG ; Shu-Wei DUAN ; Hong WANG ; Meng-Jie HUANG ; Yuan-Da WANG ; Shuo-Yuan CONG ; Sai PAN ; Jing ZHOU ; Xue-Feng SUN ; Guang-Yan CAI ; Ping LI ; Xiang-Mei CHEN
Chinese Journal of Infection Control 2024;23(3):257-264
Objective To explore the efficacy and safety of recombinant human anti-severe acute respiratory syn-drome coronavirus 2(anti-SARS-CoV-2)monoclonal antibody injection(F61 injection)in the treatment of patients with coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)combined with renal damage.Methods Patients with COVID-19 and renal damage who visited the PLA General Hospital from January to February 2023 were selected.Subjects were randomly divided into two groups.Control group was treated with conventional anti-COVID-19 therapy,while trial group was treated with conventional anti-COVID-19 therapy combined with F61 injection.A 15-day follow-up was conducted after drug administration.Clinical symptoms,laboratory tests,electrocardiogram,and chest CT of pa-tients were performed to analyze the efficacy and safety of F61 injection.Results Twelve subjects(7 in trial group and 5 in control group)were included in study.Neither group had any clinical progression or death cases.The ave-rage time for negative conversion of nucleic acid of SARS-CoV-2 in control group and trial group were 3.2 days and 1.57 days(P=0.046),respectively.The scores of COVID-19 related target symptom in the trial group on the 3rd and 5th day after medication were both lower than those of the control group(both P<0.05).According to the clinical staging and World Health Organization 10-point graded disease progression scale,both groups of subjects improved but didn't show statistical differences(P>0.05).For safety,trial group didn't present any infusion-re-lated adverse event.Subjects in both groups demonstrated varying degrees of elevated blood glucose,elevated urine glucose,elevated urobilinogen,positive urine casts,and cardiac arrhythmia,but the differences were not statistica-lly significant(all P>0.05).Conclusion F61 injection has initially demonstrated safety and clinical benefit in trea-ting patients with COVID-19 combined with renal damage.As the domestically produced drug,it has good clinical accessibility and may provide more options for clinical practice.


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