1.Correlation between environmental factors and pediatric respiratory disease visits in a central hospital of Shanghai
ZHOU Shuangshuang, CAI Yizhou, MIAO Xueqin, ZHANG Lili, ZHOU Yibin, HE Dandan, LIU Jie, HU Yanqi
Chinese Journal of School Health 2025;46(5):708-711
Objective:
To explore the correlation and lag effects of environmental factors on pediatric respiratory disease visits at hospital, so as to provide scientific basis for disease prediction and optimizing clinical diagnosis and treatment.
Methods:
Data from 503 889 pediatric respiratory disease outpatient and emergency visits a central hospital in Minhang District of Shanghai between 2017 and 2019, along with concurrent meteorological data were collected. A distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) was constructed to explore the specific relationship between pediatric respiratory disease consultations and various environmental factors and to quantify the cumulative lag effects of environmental factors on respiratory disease consultations.
Results:
Among the environmental factors, temperature, fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), inhalable particulate matter (PM 10 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2), and sulfur dioxide (SO 2) were associated with pediatric respiratory disease visits. After adjusting for temperature, PM 2.5 and PM 10 concentrations did not show significant immediate or lag effects. The relative risk (RR) of pediatric respiratory disease visits increased with rising NO 2 concentrations. When NO 2 concentration ≥55 μg/m 3, significant immediate and lagged effects (lag 3, 5, and 7 days) were observed. The RR values were 1.05, 1.13, 1.17, and 1.21( P <0.05). The RR values showed an inverted “U” shaped relationship with SO 2 concentrations. When SO 2 concentration ≥5 μg/m 3, significant lagged effects (lag 3, 5, and 7 days) were observed. The RR values were 1.03 , 1.03, and 1.04 ( P <0.05).
Conclusion
High concentrations of NO 2 and SO 2 increase the risk of pediatric respiratory disease visits, with observable lag effects.
2.Contamination risk and drug resistance analysis of Klebsiella pneumoniae in a medical institution in Minghang District, Shanghai, 2021‒2023
Sijia ZHANG ; Xing ZHANG ; Liang TIAN ; Yibin ZHOU ; Xiaosa WEN ; Jing WANG ; Zhiyin XU ; Min WU
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(4):289-295
ObjectiveTo investigate the contamination status, transmission risk and drug resistance of Klebsiella pneumoniae (KP) on the object surfaces in the surrounding environment of hospitalized patients infected with carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP) , so as to provide a scientific guidance for the prevention and control of healthcare-associated infection. MethodsSamples from the surfaces of objects in the surrounding environment of CRKP infected patients living in the intensive care unit (ICU) and hand specimens from healthcare workers were collected for KP isolation and identification, as well as drug susceptible test in a medical institution located in Minhang District, Shanghai from 2021 to 2023. Additionally, both univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify the influencing factors associated with KP contamination in the hospital environment. ResultsA total of 546 surface samples were collected from the surrounding environment objects of 15 patients infected with CRKP, with a KP detection rate of 6.59% (36/546).The KP detection rate in the ICU of general ward (10.22%) was higher than that in the ICU of emergency department (2.94%) (χ2=12.142, P<0.001). Moreover, the KP detection rate on the surfaces of patient-contacted items (15.66%) was higher than that on shared-use items (6.25%), cleaning items (10.00%), and medical supplies (3.30%) (χ2=17.943, P<0.001). Besides, the detection rate of KP in items sent out of hospital for disinfection (15.38%) was higher than that in those self-disinfected (4.20%) (χ2=19.996, P<0.001).The highest detection rate of KP was observed in high-temperature washing (15.13%, 18/119) (χ2=21.219, P<0.001), while the lowest detection rate was observed in antibacterial hand sanitizer with trichlorohydroxydiphenyl ether sanitizing factor (0, 0/60) ( χ2=21.219, P<0.001).The detection rate of KP in samples taken more than 24 hours after the last disinfection (23.08%) was higher than that in those taken at 4 to24 hours (12.90%) and less than 4 hours (4.22%) (χ2=23.398,P<0.001).ICU of general ward (OR=4.045, 95%CI: 2.206‒7.416), patient-contacted items (OR=3.113, 95%CI: 1.191‒8.141), and self-disinfection ( OR=0.241, 95%CI:0.144‒0.402) were influencing factors for KP contamination in environmental surface. From 2021 to 2023, the drug resistance rates of hospital environmental KP isolates showed an upward trend (P<0.001) to antibiotics such as ceftazidime and gentamicin. Furthermore, high drug resistance rates of KP (>90%) were observed to ciprofloxacin, levofloxacin, cefotaxime, ceftriaxone, and cefepime. ConclusionCRKP can be transmitted outward through the surfaces of objects in the patients’ surroundings, and the drug resistance situation is severe. In clinical settings, it is necessary to implement isolation measures for CRKP infection patients, to increase the frequency of disinfection for objects in their surroundings, to strengthen hand hygiene practices, and to use antibiotics appropriately.
3.The Effects of Tai Chi Training on Bone Density,Bone Turnover Markers,and Heart Rate Variability in High-Risk Osteoporosis Population
Jiaming LIN ; Chao LI ; Wei ZHAO ; Jun ZHOU ; Xiaoying CHEN ; Xiangyu XI ; Haijun HE ; Baohong MI ; Yuefeng CHEN ; Weiheng CHEN
Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2025;66(15):1566-1571
ObjectiveTo explore the effects of the Tai Chi training on bone density, bone turnover markers, and heart rate variability for people with high-risk osteoporosis, and to provide evidence for the prevention of osteoporosis at early stage. MethodsSixty-six cases of people with high risk of osteoporosis were included, and they were divided into 33 cases each in the intervention group and the control group using the random number table method. The control group received osteoporosis health education three times a week, and the intervention group received Tai Chi training under the guidance of a trainer three times a week for 40 mins each time on the basis of the control group, and both groups were intervened for 12 weeks. Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry was used to measure the bone density of L1~L4 vertebrae, bilateral femoral necks and bilateral total hips in the two groups before and after the intervention; enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay was used to determine bone turnover markers before and after the intervention, including pro-collagen type Ⅰ pro-amino-terminal prepropyl peptide (P1NP) and β-collagen type Ⅰ cross-linking carboxy-terminal peptide (β-CTX). Seven cases with good compliance in the intervention group were selected. After wearing the heart rate sensor, they successively performed Tai Chi training and walking activities recommended by the guideline for 20 mins each, and the heart rate variability (HRV) during exercise was collected, including time-domain indexes such as standard deviation of normal sinus intervals (SDNN), root-mean-square of the difference between adjacent RR intervals (RMSSD), frequency-domain metrics such as low-frequency power (LF), high-frequency power (HF), and low-frequency/high-frequency power ratio (LF/HF), as well as nonlinear metrics such as approximate entropy (ApEn), sample entropy (SampEn). ResultsFinally, 63 cases were included in the outcome analysis, including 30 cases in the intervention group and 33 cases in the control group. After the intervention, the differences of L1~L4 vertebrae, bone density of bilateral femoral neck and bilateral total hip in the intervention group were not statistically significant when compared with those before intervention (P>0.05), while the bone density of all parts of the control group decreased significantly compared with that before intervention (P<0.05), and the difference in the bone density of the L1~L4 vertebrae, bilateral femoral neck, and the right total hip before and after the intervention of the intervention group was smaller than that of the control group (P<0.05). The differences in P1NP and β-CTX between groups before and after intervention was not statistically significant (P>0.05). Compared with walking exercise, LF decreased, HF increased and LF/HF decreased during Tai Chi exercise (P<0.05); the time domain indexes and non-linear indexes between groups had no statistically significant difference (P>0.05). ConclusionTai Chi exercise can maintain lumbar, hip, and femoral bone density and improve sympathetic/parasympathetic balance in people at high risk for osteoporosis, but cannot significantly improve bone turnover markers.
4.Evaluation of analgesic effect of nalbuphine in patients with non-mechanical ventilation in intensive care unit: a multi-center randomized controlled trail
Yi ZHOU ; Shaohua LIU ; Song QIN ; Guoxiu ZHANG ; Yibin LU ; Xiaoguang DUAN ; Haixu WANG ; Ruifang ZHANG ; Shuguang ZHANG ; Yonggang LUO ; Yu FANG ; Xiaoyun FU ; Tao CHEN ; Lening REN ; Tongwen SUN
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine 2024;33(1):59-64
Objective:To analyze the efficacy and safety of nalbuphine for analgesia in patients with non-mechanical ventilation in intensive care unit (ICU).Methods:From December 2018 to August 2021, a multicenter randomized controlled clinical study was conducted to select non-mechanical ventilation patients with analgesic needs admitted to ICU of four hospitals in Henan Province and Guizhou Province. Patients were randomly assigned to nalbuphine group and fentanyl group. The nalbuphine group was given continuous infusion of nalbuphine [0.05~0.20 mg/(kg·h)], and the fentanyl group was given continuous infusion of fentanyl [0.5~2.0 μg/(kg·h)]. The analgesic target was critical-care pain observation tool (CPOT) score<2. The observation time was 48 hours. The primary endpoint was CPOT score, the secondary endpoints were Richmond agitation-sedation score (RASS), ICU length of stay, adverse events, and proportion of mechanical ventilation. The quantitative data of the two groups were compared by t test or Mann-Whitney U test. The enumeration data were compared by chi square test or Fisher exact probability method. The data at different time points between groups were compared by repeated measures analysis of variance. Results:A total of 210 patients were enrolled, including 105 patients in the nalbuphine group and 105 patients in the fentanyl group. There was no significant difference in baseline data between the two groups (all P>0.05). There was no significant difference in CPOT score between nalbuphine group and fentanyl group at each time point after medication ( P>0.05), the CPOT score of both groups at each time point after medication was significantly lower than that before medication, and the analgesic target could be achieved and maintained 2 hours after medication. There was no significant difference in RASS between the two groups at each time point after medication ( P>0.05), which was significantly lower than that before medication, and the target sedative effect was achieved 2 hours after medication. There was no significant difference in ICU length of stay between nalbuphine group and fentanyl group [5.0(4.0,7.5) d vs. 5.0(4.0,8.0) d, P=0.504]. The incidence of delirium, nausea and vomiting, abdominal distension, pruritus, vertigo and other adverse events in the nalbuphine group was lower than that in the fentanyl group (all P<0.05). There was no significant difference in the incidence of other adverse events such as deep sedation, hypotension and bradycardia between the two groups (all P>0.05). The incidence of respiratory depression in nalbuphine group was not significantly different from that in fentanyl group ( P>0.05), but the proportion of mechanical ventilation was significantly lower than that in the fentanyl group [1.9% (2/105) vs. 8.6%(9/105), P=0.030]. Conclusions:Nalbuphine could be used for analgesia in ICU patients with non-mechanical ventilation. The target analgesic effect could be achieved within 2 hours, and it had a certain sedative effect with a low incidence of adverse reactions.
5.The value of urine protein kinase Y-linked gene promoter site methylation in early diagnosis of prostate cancer
Weifeng LIU ; Zheng DAI ; Yibin ZHOU ; Kaiwen FENG ; Kai WEI ; Gule SUN ; Dongrong YANG ; Jin ZHU
The Journal of Practical Medicine 2024;40(5):688-694
Objective To explore the clinical value of methylation at promoter sites of urine protein kinase Y-linked(PRKY)gene in the early diagnosis of prostate cancer(PCa).Methods Urine samples were collected from 50 suspected PCa patients.After extracting DNA,the methylation levels of the PRKY gene promoter sites cg05163709,cg08045599,and cg05618150 were detected using quantitative methylation-specific PCR(qMSP).Simultaneously,the patients were divided into the benign prostatic hyperplasia(BPH)group and the PCa group.The differences in clinical indicators between the two groups were analyzed,as well as the methylation status of the PRKY gene promoter sites in the urine of the two groups of patients.The receiver operating charac-teristic(ROC)curve of PRKY promoter sites methylation was established,and the area under the curve(AUC)was calculated to analyze the diagnostic value of PRKY promoter sites methylation in PCa,and to perform com-bined diagnosis with clinical indicators.Results The methylation rates of cg05163709 and cg05618150 in urine specimens of PCa patients were significantly higher than those of BPH patients.The AUC for cg05163709 methyla-tion in diagnosing PCa was 0.762,with a sensitivity of 86.70%.It showed better performance in early screening for PCa compared to total prostate specific antigen(tPSA),percentage free prostate specific antigen(f/tPSA)and prostate specific antigen density(PSAD)index.We found that the AUC for cg05618150 methylation in conjunc-tion with PSAD in diagnosing PCa was 0.787,with a sensitivity of 86.70%.The AUC of cg05163709 methylation and PSAD in the joint diagnosis of PCa was 0.855,and the specificity could reach 95.00%.Conclusion The methylation of urine PRKY gene promoter sites cg05163709 and cg05618150 shows high sensitivity and specificity in diagnosing PCa,making them promising biomarkers for early detection of PCa.
6.Clinical study of lateral cervical approach surgery in the treatment of primary hyperparathyroidism
Feng ZHU ; Yijun WU ; Yibin SHEN ; Xueyu ZHOU ; Jun PAN ; Linghui CHEN ; Lixian ZHU ; Qiwen HE
Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University(Medical Sciences) 2024;45(1):69-73
Objective To explore the feasibility and clinical outcome of lateral cervical incision via sternocleidomastoid intermuscular approach(SMIA)in the treatment of primary hyperparathyroidism.Methods The clinical data of 64 patients with primary hyperparathyroidism who underwent unilateral parathyroid surgery in the First Affiliated Hospital,School of Medicine of Zhejiang University from January 2019 to June 2022 were retrospectively analyzed.They were divided into lateral cervical incision via sternocleidomastoid intermuscular approach group(SMIA group)and linea alba cervicalis approach group(LACA group)based on the surgical incision and access route.The differences in clinical features,surgery-related outcomes and postoperative functions of the anterior cervical region were compared between the two groups.The EQ-5D-5L scale was used to assess the subjective feeling of postoperative neck discomfort,while the Hollander Wound Assessment Scale was used to assess the clinical outcome of incision healing.Results There were no statistical differences between the two groups of patients in terms of age,gender,intraoperative bleeding,parathyroid hormone or blood calcium levels before and after surgery(P>0.05).The duration of surgery was significantly shorter in the SMIA group than in the LACA group[(39.77±5.69)min vs.(54.41±4.66)min].There was a statistical difference between the two groups in functional protection of the anterior cervical region at 1 month and 12 months after surgery(1 month,84.67±3.74 vs.79.47±5.38,P<0.001;12 months,93.80±2.52 vs.89.94±2.39,P<0.001),and the SMIA group was better than the LACA group.The Hollander Incision Assessment Scale scores of the SMIA group were better than those of the LACA group at 6 months and 12 months after surgery,and the difference was statistically significant(6 months,1.93±0.58 vs.2.41±0.66,P=0.003;12 months,1.03±0.67 vs.1.74±0.62,P<0.001).Conclusion Parathyroidectomy via sternocleidomastoid intermuscular approach through lateral cervical incision is a simple,safe and effective surgical procedure,which makes it easier to search for parathyroid lesions and shortens the surgical time compared with the traditional incision,and has obvious advantages in the protection of anterior cervical region function.
7.Kidney transplantation from donors with Marfan syndrome: report of 2 cases and literature review
Meng ZHANG ; Yibin WANG ; Yuchen WANG ; Rumin LIU ; Ziyan YAN ; Renfei XIA ; Wenli ZENG ; Jialiang HUI ; Minjie ZHOU ; Jian XU ; Yun MIAO
Organ Transplantation 2024;15(2):257-262
Objective To investigate the feasibility and clinical experience of kidney transplantation from donors with Marfan syndrome (MFS). Methods Clinical data of 2 recipients undergoing kidney transplantation from the same MFS patient were retrospectively analyzed and literature review of 2 cases was conducted. Characteristics and clinical diagnosis and treatment of kidney transplantation from MFS patients were summarized. Results The Remuzzi scores of the left and right donor kidneys of the MFS patient during time-zero biopsy were 1 and 2. No significant difference was observed in the renal arteriole wall compared with other donors of brain death and cardiac death. Two recipients who received kidney transplantation from the MFS patient suffered from postoperative delayed graft function. After short-term hemodialysis, the graft function of the recipients received the left and right kidney began to gradually recover at postoperative 10 d and 20 d. After discharge, serum creatinine level of the recipient received the left kidney was ranged from 80 to 90 μmol/L, whereas that of the recipient received the right kidney kept declining, and the lowest serum creatinine level was 232 μmol/L before the submission date (at postoperative 43 d). Through literature review, two cases successfully undergoing kidney transplantation from the same MFS donor were reported. Both two recipients experienced delayed graft function, and then renal function was restored to normal. Until the publication date, 1 recipient has survived for 6 years, and the other recipient died of de novo cerebrovascular disease at postoperative 2 years. Conclusions MFS patients may serve as an acceptable source of kidney donors. However, the willingness and general conditions of the recipients should be carefully evaluated before kidney transplantation. Intraoperatively, potential risk of tear of renal arterial media should be properly treated. Extensive attention should be paid to the incidence of postoperative complications.
8.Correlation between the varicella incidence and temperature in Minhang District, Shanghai
Xia ZHAO ; Linjuan DONG ; Yibin ZHOU ; Zhaowen ZHANG ; Jinsong CUI ; Jialei FAN ; Chenxi XU ; Dunjia WANG
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2024;36(8):753-759
ObjectiveTo explore the exposure-lag-response relationship between temperature and risk of varicella incidence,and to provide a scientific evidence for early warning and precise prevention and control of varicella epidemic. MethodsDaily varicella cases and daily meteorological data were collected in Minhang District, Shanghai from 2010 to 2022. A distributed lag nonlinear model was used to determine the exposure-lag-response relationship between temperature and risk of varicella incidence. Furthermore, effect of temperature on the incidence risk was determined across different age groups. ResultsIn 2010‒2022, the total number of notified varicella cases was 26 207 in Minhang District, with the highest incidence in the group aged 3‒14 years (50.35%). The seasonal pattern of daily varicella cases showed a double peak. The large peak was found in November and December, followed by a smaller peak in May and June. Moreover, the distributed lag nonlinear model showed a unimodal curve in the relationship between temperature and varicella incidence. The RR value reached its maximum peak of 1.90 (95%CI: 1.25‒2.87) at 7 ℃. A reverse U-shape was found in the lag-response curves between temperature and varicella incidence. Furthermore, the effect of temperature on the varicella incidence showed a unimodal pattern in the varicella cases aged 3‒14 years. The RR value reached its peak at 11 ℃ (RR=2.89, 95%CI: 1.33‒6.24). In contrast, the effect of temperature on the varicella incidence in the cases aged 15 years and above showed a unimodal pattern, with RR value reaching the peak at 5 ℃ (RR=2.14, 95%CI: 1.33‒3.44). ConclusionThe unimodal curve is found in the relationship between temperature and varicella incidence. Low temperature is associated with increased risk of varicella incidence. Children aged 3‒14 years are more susceptible to the effect of temperature on the varicella incidence.
9.Efficacy and safety of LY01005 versus goserelin implant in Chinese patients with prostate cancer: A multicenter, randomized, open-label, phase III, non-inferiority trial.
Chengyuan GU ; Zengjun WANG ; Tianxin LIN ; Zhiyu LIU ; Weiqing HAN ; Xuhui ZHANG ; Chao LIANG ; Hao LIU ; Yang YU ; Zhenzhou XU ; Shuang LIU ; Jingen WANG ; Linghua JIA ; Xin YAO ; Wenfeng LIAO ; Cheng FU ; Zhaohui TAN ; Guohua HE ; Guoxi ZHU ; Rui FAN ; Wenzeng YANG ; Xin CHEN ; Zhizhong LIU ; Liqiang ZHONG ; Benkang SHI ; Degang DING ; Shubo CHEN ; Junli WEI ; Xudong YAO ; Ming CHEN ; Zhanpeng LU ; Qun XIE ; Zhiquan HU ; Yinhuai WANG ; Hongqian GUO ; Tiwu FAN ; Zhaozhao LIANG ; Peng CHEN ; Wei WANG ; Tao XU ; Chunsheng LI ; Jinchun XING ; Hong LIAO ; Dalin HE ; Zhibin WU ; Jiandi YU ; Zhongwen FENG ; Mengxiang YANG ; Qifeng DOU ; Quan ZENG ; Yuanwei LI ; Xin GOU ; Guangchen ZHOU ; Xiaofeng WANG ; Rujian ZHU ; Zhonghua ZHANG ; Bo ZHANG ; Wanlong TAN ; Xueling QU ; Hongliang SUN ; Tianyi GAN ; Dingwei YE
Chinese Medical Journal 2023;136(10):1207-1215
BACKGROUND:
LY01005 (Goserelin acetate sustained-release microsphere injection) is a modified gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) agonist injected monthly. This phase III trial study aimed to evaluated the efficacy and safety of LY01005 in Chinese patients with prostate cancer.
METHODS:
We conducted a randomized controlled, open-label, non-inferiority trial across 49 sites in China. This study included 290 patients with prostate cancer who received either LY01005 or goserelin implants every 28 days for three injections. The primary efficacy endpoints were the percentage of patients with testosterone suppression ≤50 ng/dL at day 29 and the cumulative probability of testosterone ≤50 ng/dL from day 29 to 85. Non-inferiority was prespecified at a margin of -10%. Secondary endpoints included significant castration (≤20 ng/dL), testosterone surge within 72 h following repeated dosing, and changes in luteinizing hormone, follicle-stimulating hormone, and prostate specific antigen levels.
RESULTS:
On day 29, in the LY01005 and goserelin implant groups, testosterone concentrations fell below medical-castration levels in 99.3% (142/143) and 100% (140/140) of patients, respectively, with a difference of -0.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], -3.9% to 2.0%) between the two groups. The cumulative probabilities of maintaining castration from days 29 to 85 were 99.3% and 97.8%, respectively, with a between-group difference of 1.5% (95% CI, -1.3% to 4.4%). Both results met the criterion for non-inferiority. Secondary endpoints were similar between groups. Both treatments were well-tolerated. LY01005 was associated with fewer injection-site reactions than the goserelin implant (0% vs . 1.4% [2/145]).
CONCLUSION:
LY01005 is as effective as goserelin implants in reducing testosterone to castration levels, with a similar safety profile.
TRIAL REGISTRATION
ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04563936.
Humans
;
Male
;
Antineoplastic Agents, Hormonal/therapeutic use*
;
East Asian People
;
Gonadotropin-Releasing Hormone/agonists*
;
Goserelin/therapeutic use*
;
Prostate-Specific Antigen
;
Prostatic Neoplasms/drug therapy*
;
Testosterone
10.Study on prediction model of mosquito breeding in small containers based on random forest
Yiyi ZHU ; Zhihua REN ; Shaohua WANG ; Siwei XIA ; Wei ZHU ; Jie ZHANG ; Junjie TAO ; Juanyi YAO ; Yibin ZHOU
Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine 2023;40(3):349-354
Background Aedes albopictus is the dominant mosquito species in residential areas in Shanghai. There are many types of small containers with accumulated water in residential areas, providing a large number of breeding environments for Aedes alpopicuts and leading to an increasing transmission risk of mosquito-borne diseases. Objective To use random forest to predict breeding of Aedes mosquitoes in small aquatic container habitat in two concentrated reconstruction communities of rural areas in Shanghai, and to understand associated influence of environmental factors on the breeding of Aedes mosquitoes in the process of urbanization.Methods Small-scale habitat surveys of Aedes mosquitoes were carried out in two suburb concentrated reconstruction communities (Community A and B) in Shanghai, and the environment where the habitat was located was recorded and analyzed in both communities. The habitat where eggs, larvae, or pupae were found was recorded as positive. Spatial weight matrix was applied on a household basis, and global Moran's I index was used to carry out spatial autocorrelation analysis on the small-scale habitat and positive habitat in the environment of the two communities. When Moran's I is greater than 0, it means that the data present a positive spatial correlation; when Moran's I is less than 0, it means that the data are spatially negatively correlated; when Moran's I is 0, the spatial distribution is random. Combining the results of P and Z values, we explored the spatial distribution characteristics of small-scale habitat and positive habitat in the community environment. Random forest algorithm in machine learning was used to classify and sort environmental-related factors, and predict the breeding of Aedes mosquitoes in small aquatic habitat; receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to carry out model fitting evaluation. Results The environmental factors including building location (χ2=23.35, P<0.001), open space (χ2=8.83, P=0.003), and having trees (χ2=11.02, P=0.001) had a significant impact on the positive rate of small-scale habitat. The results of spatial characteristics analysis showed that the global Moran's I index of small-scale habitat was −0.092 (Z=−1.09, P=0.274) in Community A and 0.034 (Z=0.52, P=0.602) in Community B, and the global Moran's I index of positive habitat was −0.092 (Z=−1.14, P=0.255) in Community A and 0.070 (Z=0.95, P=0.342) in Community B. Since the P values of Community A and B were greater than 0.1 and the Z values were between −1.65 and 1.65, for both small-scale habitat and positive habitat the spatial characteristics were randomly distributed and no significant spatial aggregation was found. In the fitted random forest algorithm classification prediction model with the top 10 characteristic factors of importance, the area under curve (AUC) value was 0.95, and the prediction fitting effect was satisfactory. The results of classification and sorting indicated that counts of household small-scale habitat and positive habitat were the most important factors for breeding. Conclusion The random forest model constructed by environmental factor indicators can be used to predict the breeding situation of Aedes mosquitoes in small-scale aquatic habitat, and provide a basis for scientific prevention and control of mosquito breeding for the target area.


Result Analysis
Print
Save
E-mail