Objective To study the application of the trinity model and trinity forecasting method in predicting the incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis(PTB).Methods By applying the monthly PTB incidence data in Zhe-jiang Province from 2011 to 2021,a prediction model was constructed based on the trinity model and trinity forecas-ting method.Predictive performance of the model was evaluated.Results The mean relative prediction errors of model 1 and model 2 based on trinity model and trinity forecasting method were 7.94％and 8.43％,respectively.The mean relative prediction error obtained by adopting autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model was 8.87％,and the above mean relative prediction error were all in the range of 7.9％-8.9％,which presented an excellent performance of the forecasting model.Conclusion The trinity model is an excellent time series forecasting model,and the trinity forecasting method is an excellent time series forecasting method,with high application value.

Objective: To investigate the prognostic factors of children with congenital heart disease (CHD) who had undergone cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) in pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) in China. Methods: From November 2017 to October 2018, this retrospective multi-center study was conducted in 11 hospitals in China. It contained data from 281 cases who had undergone CPR and all of the subjects were divided into CHD group and non-CHD group. The general condition, duration of CPR, epinephrine doses during resuscitation, recovery of spontaneous circulation (ROSC), discharge survival rate and pediatric cerebral performance category in viable children at discharge were compared. According to whether malignant arrhythmia is the direct cause of cardiopulmonary arrest or not, children in CHD and non-CHD groups were divided into 2 subgroups: arrhythmia and non-arrhythmia, and the ROSC and survival rate to discharge were compared. Data in both groups were analyzed by t-test, chi-square analysis or ANOVA, and logistic regression were used to analyze the prognostic factors for ROSC and survival to discharge after cardiac arrest (CA). Results: The incidence of CA in PICU was 3.2% (372/11 588), and the implementation rate of CPR was 75.5% (281/372). There were 144 males and 137 females with median age of 32.8 (5.6, 42.7) months in all 281 CPA cases who received CPR. CHD group had 56 cases while non-CHD had 225 cases, with the percentage of 19.9% (56/281) and 80.1% (225/281) respectively. The proportion of female in CHD group was 60.7% (34/56) which was higher than that in non-CHD group (45.8%, 103/225) (χ²=4.00, P=0.045). There were no differences in ROSC and rate of survival to discharge between the two groups (P>0.05). The ROSC rate of children with arthythmid in CHD group was 70.0% (28/40), higher than 6/16 for non-arrhythmic children (χ²=5.06, P=0.024). At discharge, the pediatric cerebral performance category scores (1-3 scores) of CHD and non-CHD child were 50.9% (26/51) and 44.9% (92/205) respectively. Logistic regression analysis indicated that the independent prognostic factors of ROSC and survival to discharge in children with CHD were CPR duration (odds ratio (OR)=0.95, 0.97; 95%CI: 0.92~0.97, 0.95~0.99; both P<0.05) and epinephrine dosage (OR=0.87 and 0.79, 95%CI: 0.76-1.00 and 0.69-0.89, respectively; both P<0.05). Conclusions: There is no difference between CHD and non-CHD children in ROSC and survival rate of survival to discharge was low. The epinephrine dosage and the duration of CPR are related to the ROSC and survival to discharge of children with CHD.
Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Female ; Heart Arrest/therapy* ; Heart Defects, Congenital/therapy* ; Humans ; Intensive Care Units, Pediatric ; Male ; Retrospective Studies

Objective: To compare the application effect of the colonoscopy, fecal immunochemical test (FIT) and novel risk-adapted screening approach in colorectal cancer screening in Xuzhou population. Methods: From May 2018 to April 2019, 4 280 subjects aged 50-74 were recruited from Gulou district, Yunlong district and Quanshan district of Xuzhou. They were randomly assigned to the colonoscopy group (n=863), FIT group (n=1 723) and novel risk-adapted screening approach group (n=1 694) according to the ratio of 1∶2∶2. For the novel risk-adapted screening approach group, after the risk assessment, high-risk subjects were invited to undergo colonoscopy and low-risk subjects were invited to undergo FIT examination. All FIT positive subjects were invited to undergo colonoscopy. Colonoscopy participation rate [(the number of colonoscopies completed/the number of colonoscopies invited to participate)×100%], detection rate of colorectal lesions [(the number of diagnosed patients/the number of colonoscopies completed)×100%], colonoscopy resource load (the number of colonoscopies completed/the number of diagnosed advanced tumors) and FIT resource load in each group were calculated and compared. Results: The age of all subjects was (61±6) years old, including 1 816 males (42.43%). There was no statistically significant difference in the socio-demographic characteristics of the subjects in different screening groups. The colonoscopy participation rate was 22.60% (195/863) in the colonoscopy group, 57.04% (77/135) in the FIT group, and 33.94% (149/439) in the novel risk-adapted screening approach group, respectively. The colonoscopy participation rate was higher in the FIT group than in the colonoscopy group and the novel risk-adapted screening approach group (P<0.001). The colonoscopy participation rate of novel risk-adapted screening group was significantly higher than the colonoscopy group (P<0.001). The detection rates of advanced tumors were 6.67% (13/195), 9.09% (7/77) and 8.72% (13/149), respectively, and the difference was not statistically significant (P>0.05). The colonoscopy resource load (95%CI) was 15 (13-17) in the colonoscopy group, 11 (9-14) in the FIT group and 11 (10-13) in the novel risk-adapted screening approach group, respectively. Among them, the colonoscopy resource load of high-risk individuals in the novel risk-adapted screening approach group was 12 (9-15). FIT resource loads (95%CI) were 207 (196-218) and 88 (83-94) in the FIT group and the novel risk-adapted screening approach group. Conclusion: The combined application of risk-adapted screening approach and FIT may have a good application effect in colorectal cancer screening.
Aged ; Colonoscopy ; Colorectal Neoplasms/pathology* ; Early Detection of Cancer ; Feces ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Mass Screening ; Middle Aged ; Occult Blood

To investigate the effect and mechanism of psoralen on calvarial osteoblasts injuries caused by tricalcium phosphate (TCP) wear particles in vitro. Primary osteoblasts were obtained from the calvaria of neonatal SD rat by the series of digestion and were identified with ALP staining. Calvarial osteoblasts were treated with TCP wear particles for 48 h to establish the in vitro model of osteoblasts injuries. The rat osteoblasts were randomly divided into control group, TCP wear particles (0.1 mg/ml) group, psoralen treated (at the concentrations of 10, 10, 10 mol/L) groups. WST assay and the flow cytometry were used to detect the cell viability of osteoblasts and apoptosis, respectively. Chemical colorimetry was performed to examine ALP activity of osteobalsts. When the osteoblasts were treated for 14 day, mineral nodules formation was observed with alizarin red S staining. Western blot was applied to examine protein expressions of glucose regulated protein78/94(GRP78/94), inositol dependent enzyme 1 alpha (IREα), spliced X-box binding protein 1 (XBP1s) and phosphorylated c-Jun N-terminal kinase (p-JNK) in calvarial osteoblasts. Compared with control group, the cell viability of osteoblasts, ALP activity and mineral nodules formation in TCP group were decreased significantly (P＜0.05), while the percentage of apoptosis and protein expressions of GRP78/94, IRE1α, XBP1 and p-JNK were obviously increased in calvarial osteoblasts (P＜0.05). Compared with TCP group, the injuries of calvarial osteoblasts and cell apoptosis in psoralen treated groups were obviously decreased (P＜0.05), and the expression levels of GRP78/94, IRE1α, XBP1 and p-JNK were down-regulated remarkably (P＜0.05). Psoralen prevents osteoblasts injuries caused by TCP wear particles through IRE1α-XBP1s-JNK signaling pathway activation.

Objective To investigate the outcomes of patients with diabetic retinopathy (DR) in Shanghai communities and the influencing factors.Methods From October 2015 to April 2016,533 type 2 diabetic patients with DR were selected by target sampling and cluster random sampling method from six community health service centers in Shanghai.Patients were followed up for 1 year.The demographic information,physical examination,laboratory tests and eye fundus exam results were documented and the DR was graded.The factors associated with the regression of DR were analyzed.Results Total 478 patients,including 280 females (58.6％) and 198 males (41.4％),were followed up for 1 year.The mean age of patients was (64±7) years and the mean disease duration was (8.85±4.20) years.The original DR lesion was remitted in 35 patients with an improvement rate of 7.3％;while the original DR lesion was aggravated in 29 patients with a progression rate of 6.1％.Ordinal logistic regression analysis revealed that age (OR=0.197,95％CI:0.056-0.699),body mass index (BMI) (OR=0.383,95％CI:0.171-0.856),glycosylated hemoglobin (HbAlc) (OR=0.287,95％CI:0.102-0.803),triglycerides (TG) (OR=0.541,95％CI:0.295-0.991),urinary albumin to creatinine ratio (ACR)(OR=0.218,95％CI:0.066-0.720) were associated with DR in type 2 diabetic patients.Conclusion The regression of DR is closely related to age,BMI,glucose,serum lipids and renal function,so it is suggested that lowering BMI,controlling glucose and serum lipids and maintaining normal kidney function are necessary for preventing the progression and promoting the improvement of DR in diabetic patients.

In the present study, four new sesquiterpenoids, chimonols A-D (compounds 1-4), together with four known compounds (5-8) were isolated from the EtOAc extract of Chimonanthus praecox Link. The structures of these new compounds were elucidated on the basis of spectroscopic techniques (UV, IR, MS, and 1D and 2D NMR), and their absolute configurations were established by comparing experimental and calculated electronic circular dichroism (ECD) spectra. Compounds 1-8 were evaluated for antimicrobial activities and the minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) were determined by the broth microdilution method in 96-well culture plates. Compounds 1, 2, and 7 exhibited weak antibacterial effects for S. aureus (ATCC 6538), E. coli (ATCC 11775), and P. aeruginosa (ATCC 10145) with MIC values being 158-249 µg·mL. Compounds 3-7 showed activities against C. glabrata (ATCC 2001) and S. aureus (ATCC 43300) with MIC values being 128-197 µg·mL. Compounds 1-4 showed activity against S. aureus (ATCC 25923) with MIC values being 162-254 µg·mL. The present study provided a basis for future evaluation of these compounds as antibacterial agents.
Anti-Bacterial Agents ; chemistry ; isolation & purification ; pharmacology ; Calycanthaceae ; chemistry ; Escherichia coli ; drug effects ; Microbial Sensitivity Tests ; Molecular Structure ; Plant Extracts ; chemistry ; isolation & purification ; pharmacology ; Sesquiterpenes ; chemistry ; isolation & purification ; pharmacology ; Staphylococcus aureus ; drug effects

OBJECTIVEIn this study, milk from a cow with mastitis was analyzed to determine the presence of mycobacterial infection. Milk quality and security problems pertaining to the safe consumption of dairy products were also discussed in this study.

METHODSMilk was preprocessed with 4% NaOH. Then, mycobacteria were isolated from the milk sample on L-J medium. The isolate was identified using multiple loci Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) and multi-locus sequence analysis with 16S rRNA, sodA, hsp65, and ITS genes. The drug sensitivity of the isolate to 27 antibiotics was tested through alamar blue assay.

RESULTSSmooth, moist, pale yellow colonies appeared on the L-J medium within a week after inoculation. Based on the results of multiple loci PCR analysis, the isolate was preliminarily identified as non-tuberculous mycobacteria. The 16S rRNA, SodA, hsp65, and ITS gene sequences of the isolate exhibited 99%, 99%, 99%, and 100% similarities, respectively, with those of the published reference strains of Mycobacterium elephantis (M. elephantis). The drug sensitivity results showed that the strain is resistant to isoniazid, p-aminosalicylic acid, and trimesulf but is sensitive to ofloxacin, rifampicin, amikacin, capreomycin, moxifloxacin, kanamycin, levofloxacin, cycloserine, ethambutol, streptomycin, tobramycin, rifabutin, ciprofloxacin, linezolid, cefoxitin, clarithromycin, and minocycline.

CONCLUSIONTo the best of our knowledge, this study is initially to report the isolation of M. elephantis from the milk of a cow with mastitis in China.

Animals ; Anti-Bacterial Agents ; pharmacology ; Cattle ; China ; Drug Resistance, Bacterial ; Female ; Mastitis, Bovine ; epidemiology ; microbiology ; Milk ; microbiology ; Mycobacterium ; drug effects ; genetics ; isolation & purification ; Mycobacterium Infections ; epidemiology ; microbiology ; veterinary ; Phylogeny ; Polymerase Chain Reaction

BACKGROUNDData on the epidemiology of hypertension in Chinese non-dialysis chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients are limited. The aim of the present study was to investigate the prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension in the non-dialysis CKD patients through a nationwide, multicenter study in China.

METHODSThe survey was performed in 61 tertiary hospitals in 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions in China (except Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan). Trained physicians collected demographic and clinical data and measured blood pressure (BP) using a standardized protocol. Hypertension was defined as systolic BP ≥ 140 mmHg and/or diastolic BP ≥ 90 mmHg, and/or use of antihypertensive medications. BP < 140/90 mmHg and < 130/80 mmHg were used as the 2 thresholds of hypertension control. In multivariate logistic regression with adjustment for sex and age, we analyzed the association between CKD stages and uncontrolled hypertension in non-dialysis CKD patients.

RESULTSThe analysis included 8927 non-dialysis CKD patients. The prevalence, awareness, and treatment of hypertension in non-dialysis CKD patients were 67.3%, 85.8%, and 81.0%, respectively. Of hypertensive CKD patients, 33.1% and 14.1% had controlled BP to < 140/90 mmHg and < 130/80 mmHg, respectively. With successive CKD stages, the prevalence of hypertension in non-dialysis CKD patients increased, but the control of hypertension decreased (P < 0.001). When the threshold of BP < 130/80 mmHg was considered, the risk of uncontrolled hypertension in CKD 2, 3a, 3b, 4, and 5 stages increased 1.3, 1.4, 1.4, 2.5, and 4.0 times compared with CKD 1 stage, respectively (P < 0.05). Using the threshold of < 140/90 mmHg, the risk of uncontrolled hypertension increased in advanced stages (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONSThe prevalence of hypertension Chinese non-dialysis CKD patients was high, and the hypertension control was suboptimal. With successive CKD stages, the risk of uncontrolled hypertension increased.

Adult ; Aged ; Awareness ; Female ; Humans ; Hypertension ; complications ; epidemiology ; therapy ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Prevalence ; Renal Insufficiency, Chronic ; complications

BACKGROUNDFew characteristic changes of linear electroencephalograph (EEG) have been reported in schizophrenia. The aim of the present study was to investigate the changes in temporal-spatial dimensional properties of EEG under different cognitive tasks in patients with schizophrenia.

METHODSEEG was recorded by using EEG-1518K system and mapping system (Nihon Kohden Tomioka Corporation, Japan) in 45 schizophrenic patients and 47 healthy adults (normal control, NC) under five states: eyes closed, eyes open, mental arithmetic test with eyes closed, memory test with eyes open, and number cancellation test. Correlation dimension (D2) and point-wise correlation dimension (PD2) were calculated for all EEG analyses.

RESULTS(1) There were no significant differences of D2 and PD2 between NC and schizophrenic patients under states of eyes open and closed. (2) Compared with NC, schizophrenic patients showed decreased performance of D2 in mental arithmetic test with eyes closed and number cancellation test (mental arithmetic test with eyes closed: Nc 5.9 ± 0.6, Sch 3.0 ± 0.8; number cancellation test: Nc 6.0 ± 0.6, Sch 4.4 ± 0.7; P < 0.05 or P < 0.01). (3) Schizophrenic patients also showed decrease performance of PD2 in mental arithmetic test with eyes closed, memory test with eyes open, and number cancellation test (mental arithmetic test with eyes closed: Nc 6.9 ± 0.7, Sch 4.0 ± 0.8; memory test with eyes open: Nc 6.6 ± 0.8, Sch 5.0 ± 0.9; number cancellation test: Nc 7.1 ± 0.7, Sch 4.8 ± 0.9; P < 0.05 or P < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONSNonlinear dynamic analysis provided a new approach in clinical investigation of EEG signals. It was helpful to further understand the cerebral mechanism in schizophrenic cognitive process.

Adult ; Cognition ; physiology ; Electroencephalography ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Nonlinear Dynamics ; Schizophrenia ; physiopathology

OBJECTIVETo investigate the effects of chronic lead exposure on expression of autophagy-associated proteins in rat hippocampus.

METHODSSD rats were randomly divided into three groups: control group was given distilled water, lead-exposed groups were given 0.5 g/L (low-dose) or 2.0 g/L(high-dose) lead acetate solution in drinking water. The rat pups started to drink the lead content water until 60 d maturity. The lead contents in blood and brain samples were analyzed by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrophotometry. The expressions of Beclin 1, LC3, LAMP2 and cathepsin B proteins were detected by Western blot and immunohistochemistry.

RESULTSCompared with control group, the contents of lead were significantly higher in blood and hippocampus samples in chronic lead-exposed rats (P<0.01). Western blot showed that the expression of Beclin 1 and LC3-II/LC3-I increased significantly in high dose lead-exposed group compared with control group (P<0.05 or P<0.001). The confocal laser immunostaining results demonstrated that increased immunofluorescence staining of cathepsin B in hippocampal neurons compared with control animals.

CONCLUSIONThe disturbance of autophagy-lysosome signaling molecules might be partially contribute to neurotoxicity of chronic lead exposure.

Animals ; Apoptosis Regulatory Proteins ; metabolism ; Autophagy ; drug effects ; physiology ; Beclin-1 ; Cathepsin B ; metabolism ; Chronic Disease ; Disease Models, Animal ; Female ; Hippocampus ; drug effects ; metabolism ; pathology ; Lead Poisoning ; metabolism ; pathology ; Lysosomal-Associated Membrane Protein 2 ; metabolism ; Male ; Microtubule-Associated Proteins ; metabolism ; Rats ; Rats, Sprague-Dawley ; Signal Transduction ; drug effects