1.Comparison of the predictive performance of SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease
LU Wenhai ; KONG Xiaojie ; SONG Lixia ; LU Chunru ; YU Bikun ; XIE Yan
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2026;38(1):79-84
Objective:
To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease.
Methods:
Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance.
Results:
A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October).
Conclusions
For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.
2.Ameliorating effects of tetrahydrocurcumin and its nano-preparations on lipopolysaccharide-induced depression in mice
Hui Tan ; Yuanping Li ; Jingyuan Meng ; Tengteng Ma ; Yan Yang ; Zhengmao Yang ; Jiaqing Ma ; Jianping Xie ; Ying Guo
Acta Universitatis Medicinalis Anhui 2025;60(1):79-86
Objective :
To investigate the antidepressant effects and the underlying mechanisms of tetrahydrocurcumin(THC) and its nanoparticle formulation(THCN).
Methods :
Forty-six male ICR mice were randomly divided into Con group, LPS group, THC group, THCN group and SER group. A mouse depression model was established by intraperitoneal administration of LPS. The anxiety and depression-like behaviors of mice were evaluated by open field test(OFT) and forced swimming test(FST). Myelin staining was applied to assess the extent of demyelination in the prefrontal cortex of the mice. The prefrontal cortex and hippocampus were further examined for the expression levels of glial fibrillary acidic protein(GFAP) and Toll-like receptor 4(TLR4) through quantitative immunofluorescence assays.
Results :
Compared with the Con group, the LPS group showed increased anxiety-like and depressive-like behaviors in both the long-term and short-term experiments(P<0.05); the degree of demyelination increased in the LPS group of the long-term experiment(P<0.01); the expression of GFAP was reduced in the LPS group of the short-term experiment(P<0.01), while the expression of TLR4 increased(P<0.05); the expression of TLR4 decreased in the THC group(P<0.01); the expression of GFAP in the prefrontal cortex of the THCN group was reduced(P<0.01), while the expression of TLR4 increased(P<0.05). Compared with the LPS group, the THC group showed reduced depressive-like behaviors in the long-term experiment(P<0.05), while the anxiety-like and depressive-like behaviors of the THCN group and the SER group were reduced(P<0.05), and the anxiety-like and depressive-like behaviors of the THC group and the THCN group were reduced in the short-term experiment(P<0.05); the degree of demyelination was reduced in the THC group, THCN group and SER group in the long-term experiment(P<0.05); the expression of GFAP increased in the THC group of the short-term experiment(P<0.05), while the expression of TLR4 was reduced(P<0.05), and the expression of GFAP increased in the THCN group(P<0.05). Compared with the THC group, the THCN group and the SER group showed reduced anxiety-like behaviors in the long-term experiment(P<0.05); the expression of GFAP in the prefrontal cortex of the THCN group was reduced in the short-term experiment(P<0.05), while the expression of TLR4 in the hippocampal DG area increased in the short-term experiment(P<0.01).
Conclusion
Tetrahydrocurcumin and its nanoparticle formulation both exert significant ameliorative effects on depression-like behaviors and demyelination in mice induced by lipopolysaccharide. The antidepressant mechanism of THC appears to be mediated through the down-regulation of TLR4 and the up-regulation of GFAP. The mechanism underlying the antidepressant action of THCN seems predominantly focused on the enhancement of GFAP expression.
3.Traditional Chinese Medicine Treats Sepsis by Regulating PI3K/Akt Pathway: A Review
Zhu LIU ; Jiawei WANG ; Jing YAN ; Jinchan PENG ; Mingyao XU ; Liqun LI ; Sheng XIE
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(2):314-322
Sepsis is a systemic inflammatory response syndrome caused by the invasion of pathogenic microorganisms such as bacteria. In addition to the manifestations of systemic inflammatory response syndrome and primary infection lesions, critical cases often have manifestations of organ hypoperfusion. The morbidity and mortality of sepsis have remained high in recent years, which seriously affect the quality of life of the patients. The pathogenesis of sepsis is complicated, in which uncontrollable inflammation is a key mechanism. The phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase/protein kinase B (PI3K/Akt) signaling pathway plays a key role in mediating inflammation in sepsis. The available therapies of sepsis mainly include resuscitation, anti-infection, vasoactive drugs, intensive insulin therapy, and organ support, which show limited effects of reducing the mortality. Therefore, finding new therapeutic drugs is a key problem to be solved in the clinical treatment of sepsis. In recent years, studies have shown that traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) can regulate the PI3K/Akt pathway via multiple pathways, multiple effects, and multiple targets to inhibit inflammation and curb the occurrence and development of sepsis, which has gradually become a hot spot in the prevention and treatment of sepsis. Moreover, studies have suggested that TCM has unique advantages in the treatment of sepsis. TCM can regulate the PI3K/Akt signaling pathway to inhibit inflammation, reduce oxidative stress, and control apoptosis in the prevention and treatment of sepsis. Despite the research progress, a systematic review remains to be performed regarding the TCM treatment of sepsis by regulating the PI3K/Akt signaling pathway. After reviewing relevant papers published in recent years, this study systematically summarizes the relationship between PI3K/Akt pathway and sepsis and the role of TCM in the treatment of sepsis, aiming to provide new ideas for the potential treatment of sepsis and the development of new drugs.
4.Heart rate changes in patients during small incision lenticule extraction surgery
Yan ZHAO ; Kun ZHOU ; Jun CAI ; Caiyuan XIE ; Di SHEN ; Jiaqian ZHANG ; Wei WEI
International Eye Science 2025;25(4):685-688
AIM: To explore the factors influencing heart rate(HR)changes during small incision lenticule extraction(SMILE)surgery by monitoring HR trends at different time points of the procedure.METHODS: Prospective cohort study. A total of 69 patients who underwent SMILE surgery at the Laser Vision Correction Center of Xi'an No.1 Hospital from April to May 2024 were enrolled. Before the surgery, patients completed the State Anxiety Inventory(S-AI, questions 1-20)to assess their preoperative anxiety scores related to the next day's surgery. Baseline HR was recorded using medical pulse oximeter, and real-time HR was recorded during patient positioning, lenticule scanning, lenticule separation and extraction, and the application of postoperative eye drops.RESULTS: The HR during patient positioning was 83.61±13.87 bpm, which was significantly different from the baseline HR(77.52±10.88 bpm), HR during lenticule separation and extraction(75.54±12.52 bpm), and HR during postoperative eye drop application(76.65±10.54 bpm; all P<0.001). When stratified by median age, older patients(>26 years)had the HR during lenticule separation and extraction 76.27±9.93 bpm, which differed from the HR at positioning(84.82±14.10 bpm)and at lens scanning(82.76±13.72 bpm; all P<0.005). Stratified by gender, the HR of male patients at positioning was the highest(85.31±16.61 bpm), which differed significantly from the baseline HR(78.26±12.63 bpm), HR during lenticule separation and extraction(77.14±14.59 bpm), and HR during postoperative eye drop application(77.11±12.49 bpm; all P<0.005). There was no correlation between HR during positioning and preoperative anxiety scores(r=0.124, P=0.418).CONCLUSION: HR changes during SMILE surgery vary with different procedural stages, peaking during patient positioning and reaching the lowest point during lenticule separation and extraction. Older patients showed higher HR during positioning, and male patients exhibited higher HR during positioning.
5.Right ventricular-pulmonary artery connection for palliative treatment of pulmonary atresia with ventricular septal defect in children: A single-center retrospective study
Shuai ZHANG ; Jianrui MA ; Hailong QIU ; Xinjian YAN ; Wen XIE ; Qiushi REN ; Juemin YU ; Tianyu CHEN ; Yong ZHANG ; Xiaohua LI ; Furong LIU ; Shusheng WEN ; Jian ZHUANG ; Qiang GAO ; Jianzheng CEN
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2025;32(03):366-371
Objective To compare the benefits and drawbacks of primary patch expansion versus pericardial tube right ventricular-pulmonary artery connection in patients diagnosed with pulmonary atresia with ventricular septal defect (PA/VSD). Methods A retrospective study was conducted on patients diagnosed with PA/VSD who underwent primary right ventricular-pulmonary artery connection surgery at our center between 2010 and 2020. Patients were categorized into two groups based on the type of right ventricular-pulmonary artery connection: a pericardial tube group and a patch expansion group. Clinical data and imaging findings were compared between the two groups. Results A total of 51 patients were included in the study, comprising 31 males and 20 females, with a median age of 12.57 (4.57, 49.67) months. The pericardial tube group included 19 patients with a median age of 17.17 (7.33, 49.67) months, while the patch expansion group consisted of 32 patients with a median age of 8.58 (3.57, 52.72) months. In both groups, the diameter of pulmonary artery, McGoon index, and Nakata index significantly increased after treatment (P<0.001). However, the pericardial tube group exhibited a longer extracorporeal circulation time (P<0.001). The reoperation rate was notably high, with 74.51% of patients requiring further surgical intervention, including 26 (81.25%) patients in the patch expansion group and 12 (63.16%) patients in the pericardial tube group. No statistical differences were observed in long-term cure rates or mortality between the two groups (P>0.005). Conclusion In patients with PA/VSD, both patch expansion and pericardial tube right ventricular-pulmonary artery connection serve as effective initial palliative treatment strategies that promote pulmonary vessel development and provide a favorable foundation for subsequent radical operations. However, compared to the pericardial tube approach, the patch expansion technique is simpler to perform and preserves some intrinsic potential for pulmonary artery development, making it the preferred procedure.
6.Long-Term Real-World Outcomes of Tenofovir Alafenamide in Chronic Hepatitis B: Detailed Analysis of Treatment-Naive and Experienced Patients
Yu-Xuan SONG ; Guang-Jun SONG ; Hui MA ; Bo FENG ; Yan-Di XIE
The Korean Journal of Gastroenterology 2025;85(1):64-72
Background/Aims:
This study assessed the long-term efficacy and safety of tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) in real-world settings.
Methods:
Patients who were candidates for TAF treatment and were followed up at 12-week intervals over 192 weeks were enrolled in this study.
Results:
One hundred and forty-four patients (50 treatment-naive and 94 treatment-experienced) were included in this study. The cumulative incidence rates of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma at 192 weeks were 3.9% and 0.7%, respectively. In treatment-naive patients, the rates of a virological response, HBeAg conversion, and HBsAg loss at 192 weeks were 100%, 33.3%, and 2%, respectively. The treatment-naive patients exhibited higher baseline HBsAg levels than the treatment-experienced patients (4.31 log10IU/mL vs. 3.97 log10IU/mL). A significant decrease in the HBsAg levels from the baseline was observed at 144 and 192 weeks in the treatment-naive patients (p=0.01). The baseline body mass index (BMI) <25 kg/m2 (p=0.02) and HBsAg <3.3 log10IU/mL (p=0.04) were identified as predictive factors for a decrease in HBsAg ≥0.5 log10IU/mL at 48 weeks. The eGFR levels were consistently lower in the treatment-experienced patients throughout the study. Although the treatment-naive patients showed no abnormal increases in urinary URBP, the treatment-experienced patients showed elevated urinary β2MG and NAG levels at the baseline, which decreased over the treatment course. The total cholesterol, triglyceride, and low-density lipoprotein levels were similar in both groups.
Conclusions
Prolonging the TAF treatment duration enhances the virological response rate. The decline in HBsAg levels was more significant in the treatment-naive patients than in the treatment-experienced patients. The baseline BMI <25 kg/m2 and HBsAg <3.3 log10IU/mL were predictive factors for a significant decline in HBsAg at 48 weeks. TAF has high renal safety and no significant impact on lipid levels.
7.Synergistic Activation of LEPR and ADRB2 Induced by Leptin Enhances Reactive Oxygen Specie Generation in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer Cells
Chang LIU ; Jing YU ; Yongjun DU ; Yu XIE ; Xiaofei SONG ; Chang LIU ; Yan YAN ; Yue WANG ; Junfang QIN
Cancer Research and Treatment 2025;57(2):457-477
Purpose:
Leptin interacts not only with leptin receptor (LEPR) but also engages with other receptors. While the pro-oncogenic effects of the adrenergic receptor β2 (ADRB2) are well-established, the role of leptin in activating ADRB2 in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) remains unclear.
Materials and Methods:
The pro-carcinogenic effects of LEPR were investigated using murine TNBC cell lines, 4T1 and EMT6, and a tumor-bearing mouse model. Expression levels of LEPR, NADPH oxidase 4 (NOX4), and ADRB2 in TNBC cells and tumor tissues were analyzed via western blot and quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction. Changes in reactive oxygen species (ROS) levels were assessed using flow cytometry and MitoSox staining, while immunofluorescence double-staining confirmed the co-localization of LEPR and ADRB2.
Results:
LEPR activation promoted NOX4-derived ROS and mitochondrial ROS production, facilitating TNBC cell proliferation and migration, effects which were mitigated by the LEPR inhibitor Allo-aca. Co-expression of LEPR and ADRB2 was observed on cell membranes, and bioinformatics data revealed a positive correlation between the two receptors. Leptin activated both LEPR and ADRB2, enhancing intracellular ROS generation and promoting tumor progression, which was effectively countered by a specific ADRB2 inhibitor ICI118551. In vivo, leptin injection accelerated tumor growth and lung metastases without affecting appetite, while treatments with Allo-aca or ICI118551 mitigated these effects.
Conclusion
This study demonstrates that leptin stimulates the growth and metastasis of TNBC through the activation of both LEPR and ADRB2, resulting in increased ROS production. These findings highlight LEPR and ADRB2 as potential biomarkers and therapeutic targets in TNBC.
8.Long-Term Real-World Outcomes of Tenofovir Alafenamide in Chronic Hepatitis B: Detailed Analysis of Treatment-Naive and Experienced Patients
Yu-Xuan SONG ; Guang-Jun SONG ; Hui MA ; Bo FENG ; Yan-Di XIE
The Korean Journal of Gastroenterology 2025;85(1):64-72
Background/Aims:
This study assessed the long-term efficacy and safety of tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) in real-world settings.
Methods:
Patients who were candidates for TAF treatment and were followed up at 12-week intervals over 192 weeks were enrolled in this study.
Results:
One hundred and forty-four patients (50 treatment-naive and 94 treatment-experienced) were included in this study. The cumulative incidence rates of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma at 192 weeks were 3.9% and 0.7%, respectively. In treatment-naive patients, the rates of a virological response, HBeAg conversion, and HBsAg loss at 192 weeks were 100%, 33.3%, and 2%, respectively. The treatment-naive patients exhibited higher baseline HBsAg levels than the treatment-experienced patients (4.31 log10IU/mL vs. 3.97 log10IU/mL). A significant decrease in the HBsAg levels from the baseline was observed at 144 and 192 weeks in the treatment-naive patients (p=0.01). The baseline body mass index (BMI) <25 kg/m2 (p=0.02) and HBsAg <3.3 log10IU/mL (p=0.04) were identified as predictive factors for a decrease in HBsAg ≥0.5 log10IU/mL at 48 weeks. The eGFR levels were consistently lower in the treatment-experienced patients throughout the study. Although the treatment-naive patients showed no abnormal increases in urinary URBP, the treatment-experienced patients showed elevated urinary β2MG and NAG levels at the baseline, which decreased over the treatment course. The total cholesterol, triglyceride, and low-density lipoprotein levels were similar in both groups.
Conclusions
Prolonging the TAF treatment duration enhances the virological response rate. The decline in HBsAg levels was more significant in the treatment-naive patients than in the treatment-experienced patients. The baseline BMI <25 kg/m2 and HBsAg <3.3 log10IU/mL were predictive factors for a significant decline in HBsAg at 48 weeks. TAF has high renal safety and no significant impact on lipid levels.
9.Mammalian pluripotent stem cells:effects on creating disease models,pathogenesis,drug discovery and personalized treatment
Wenqiang XU ; Haolin CHEN ; Chang YAN ; Tao XU ; Yabin XIE ; Xueling LI
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2025;29(1):136-146
BACKGROUND:The self-renewal and multi-directional differentiation of pluripotent stem cells possess the potential to revolutionize people's understanding of biology,medicine,development,and disease.Stem cells play an important role in the early stage of embryonic development,and the study of them could be beneficial to understanding of the basic principles of biological development and tissue or organ formation,exploring the potential mechanisms of various diseases,studying the repair and regeneration of damaged tissues or organs,and promoting drug discovery and personalized treatment. OBJECTIVE:To review the research progress of pluripotent stem cells,summarize and categorize the fundamental types of pluripotent stem cells,and elucidate the lineage situations of various types of pluripotent stem cells in common mammals. METHODS:PubMed,Web of Science,CNKI,and WanFang databases were searched systematically,with the keywords"pluripotent stem cells;embryonic stem cells;induced pluripotent stem cells;expanded potential stem cells;livestock pluripotent stem cells"in English and Chinese.The 99 articles related to mammalian pluripotent stem cells were systematically screened according to inclusion and exclusion criteria,and then reviewed. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)According to classical theory in mouse embryonic stem cell research,the pluripotent state of stem cells is divided into two forms:na?ve and primed.Na?ve state corresponds to the inner cell mass of pre-implantation embryos before attachment to the uterine wall,while primed state corresponds to the epiblast after implantation.These two states exhibit significant differences in epigenetic features,transcriptional activity,external signal dependency,and metabolic phenotype.It is later discovered that there is an intermediate state between na?ve and primed called formative pluripotency.Therefore,the pluripotency of pluripotent stem cells is a continuous developmental process rather than a unique cell state.(2)In addition to obtaining pluripotent stem cells from the inner cell mass,there are various methods and lineages for acquiring pluripotent stem cells,including embryonic germ cells established using primitive germ cells from mouse embryos,induced pluripotent stem cells created by the dedifferentiation of adult mouse and human fibroblasts with four factors—Oct3/4,Sox2,c-Myc,and Klf4;embryonic stem cell-like cell lines cultured from somatic cell nuclear transfer,parthenogenesis,neonatal or adult testicular or ovarian tissue,very small embryonic-like stem cells derived from various adult tissues and expanded pluripotent stem cells derived from pre-implantation stages.These pluripotent stem cells all share the common characteristics of continuous self-renewal,expressing core pluripotency factors and possessing the ability to differentiate into the three primary germ layers.(3)Currently,pluripotent stem cells are being used for disease modeling to study the mechanisms of various diseases and develop new drugs.Simultaneously,scientists are attempting to use pluripotent stem cells to cultivate various tissues and organs,offering new possibilities for regenerative medicine and transplantation.However,the clinical application of pluripotent stem cells faces safety challenges,including issues of cell mutations and immune rejection.Continual improvement in the methods of generating pluripotent stem cells will make them safer and more efficient for clinical applications.(4)Based on the methods of obtaining and lineage establishment of pluripotent stem cells in mice and humans,various types of pluripotent stem cells have been established in livestock,including embryonic stem cells,induced pluripotent stem cells,germ lineages of pluripotent stem cells,and expanded potential stem cells.Research on livestock pluripotent stem cells opens up new avenues for animal reproduction,breeding,genetic engineering,disease modeling,drug screening,and the conservation of endangered wildlife.
10.Effects and mechanism of Qiangxin decoction on mitochondrion of rats with chronic heart failure
Meiling MAO ; Jianqi LU ; Zhide ZHU ; Yan PANG ; Liyu XIE ; Jiayong CHEN ; Xinyu WU ; Xiang XIAO ; Junshen LU ; Weiqi SHI
China Pharmacy 2025;36(2):160-165
OBJECTIVE To investigate the effects and potential mechanism of Qiangxin decoction on mitochondrion of rats with chronic heart failure (CHF). METHODS The CHF model was established by ligating the left anterior descending branch of the coronary artery. Modeled rats were divided into model group, Qiangxin decoction low-dose and high-dose groups (12.25, 24.50 g/kg, calculated by crude drug), and chemical medicine group (Sacubitril valsartan sodium tablets, 10.42 mg/kg), with 10 rats in each group; control group was set up without treatment. Each group of rats was orally administered with the corresponding medication or normal saline twice a day for 28 consecutive days. After the last medication, the contents of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and adenosine triphosphate (ATP) in serum and phosphatidic acid (PA) and cardiolipin (CL) in myocardial tissue were all detected; the pathological damage and collagen fibrosis of rat myocardial tissue were observed; the apoptosis of myocardial cells was determined; the ultrastructure of myocardial tissue was observed; the protein expressions of mitofusin 1 (Mfn1), Mfn2, optic atrophy protein 1 (OPA1) and dynamin-related protein 1 (Drp1) were all detected in myocardial tissue. RESULTS Compared with control group,the serum content of NT-proBNP, apoptotic rate of myocardial cells, and relative expressions of S-OPA1 and Drp1 proteins were all increased significantly; serum content of ATP,contents of PA and CL, and relative expressions of Mfn1, Mfn2 and L-OPA1 proteins were all significantly reduced (P<0.05). There were abnormal membrane tissue structure in various layers of myocardial tissue, degeneration and necrosis of myocardial cells, and severe fibrosis; the mitochondria were swollen, with reduced or absent cristae, and uneven matrix density. After intervention with Qiangxin decoction, the levels of the aforementioned quantitative indicators in serum and myocardial tissue of rats (excluding CL content in the Qiangxin decoction low- dose group) were significantly reversed (P<0.05); the pathological damage of myocardial tissue had significantly improved, fibrosis had significantly reduced, mitochondrial morphology tended to be normal, cristae had increased, and matrix density was uniform. CONCLUSIONS Qiangxin decoction can regulate myocardial mitochondrial function and structural integrity of CHF rats, thereby improving myocardial energy metabolism and antagonizing myocardial fibrosis, the mechanism of which may be associated with activating PA/Mfn/CL signaling pathway.


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