1.Comparison of the predictive performance of SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease
LU Wenhai ; KONG Xiaojie ; SONG Lixia ; LU Chunru ; YU Bikun ; XIE Yan
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2026;38(1):79-84
Objective:
To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease.
Methods:
Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance.
Results:
A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October).
Conclusions
For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.
2.Quantitative analysis on microvasculature in the optic disc area of patients with unilateral branch retinal vein occlusion
Jia SUN ; Jian LIU ; Peng YAN ; Nan LU ; Zhiming SHAN ; Dongni YANG
International Eye Science 2025;25(1):152-156
AIM: To observe the changes of retinal nerve fiber layer(RNFL)thickness and radial peripheral capillary(RPC)density in patients with unilateral branch retinal vein occlusion(BRVO), and further analyze the correlation between RPC density and RNFL thickness.METHODS: Observational study. Totally 37 patients with unilateral BRVO diagnosed at the ophthalmology department of First Hospital of Qinhuangdao from October 2020 to January 2022 were selected, the 37 affected eyes were the unilateral BRVO group, and 37 fellow healthy eyes were the contralateral unaffected group, and 35 healthy individuals(35 right eyes were selected)without ocular diseases during the same period were selected as the normal control group. The best corrected visual acuity, intraocular pressure, anterior segment, fundus and optical coherence tomography angiography(OCTA)were examined in both eyes of all BRVO patients and healthy individuals. The central macular thickness(CMT), the RNFL thickness, and the optic disc-AV crossing distance(DAVD)were measured by built-in software of the OCTA equipment. The optimized U-net algorithm was used to eliminate the large blood vessels, and then the RPC density was calculated. The CMT, RNFL thickness and RPC density were compared among the three groups. And the correlations of the RPC density with the CMT, RNFL thickness, and the DAVD were investigated.RESULTS: Compared with the contralateral unaffected group and the normal control group, the CMT and the RNFL thickness were significantly thickened in the unilateral BRVO group(all P<0.05); there were no statistical differences in the CMT and the RNFL thickness between the contralateral unaffected group and the normal control group(all P>0.05). The RPC density in the unilateral BRVO group increased compared with the contralateral unaffected group and decreased compared with the normal control group, but there was no statistically difference(all P>0.05). However, the RPC density in the contralateral unaffected group decreased compared with the normal control group(P<0.05). The RPC density in the unilateral BRVO group was not correlated with the CMT(P=0.960), but positively correlated with the RNFL thickness(r=0.401, P=0.014)and negatively correlated with the DAVD(r=-0.339, P=0.040).CONCLUSION: The RNFL thickened significantly and the RPC density did not change significantly in the optic disc area of BRVO patients. The RPC density is positively correlated with the RNFL thickness, indicating that the RNFL thickness can be used as a monitoring indicator to analyze and study the damage degree of the RPC density.
3.Optimization of simmering technology of Rheum palmatum from Menghe Medical School and the changes of chemical components after processing
Jianglin XUE ; Yuxin LIU ; Pei ZHONG ; Chanming LIU ; Tulin LU ; Lin LI ; Xiaojing YAN ; Yueqin ZHU ; Feng HUA ; Wei HUANG
China Pharmacy 2025;36(1):44-50
OBJECTIVE To optimize the simmering technology of Rheum palmatum from Menghe Medical School and compare the difference of chemical components before and after processing. METHODS Using appearance score, the contents of gallic acid, 5-hydroxymethylfurfural (5-HMF), sennoside A+sennoside B, combined anthraquinone and free anthraquinone as indexes, analytic hierarchy process (AHP)-entropy weight method was used to calculate the comprehensive score of evaluation indicators; the orthogonal experiment was designed to optimize the processing technology of simmering R. palmatum with fire temperature, simmering time, paper layer number and paper wrapping time as factors; validation test was conducted. The changes in the contents of five anthraquinones (aloe-emodin, rhein, emodin, chrysophanol, physcion), five anthraquinone glycosides (barbaloin, rheinoside, rhubarb glycoside, emodin glycoside, and emodin methyl ether glycoside), two sennosides (sennoside A, sennoside B), gallic acid and 5-HMF were compared between simmered R. palmatum prepared by optimized technology and R. palmatum. RESULTS The optimal processing conditions of R. palmatum was as follows: each 80 g R. palmatum was wrapped with a layer of wet paper for 0.5 h, simmered on high heat for 20 min and then simmered at 140 ℃, the total simmering time was 2.5 h. The average comprehensive score of 3 validation tests was 94.10 (RSD<1.0%). After simmering, the contents of five anthraquinones and two sennosides were decreased significantly, while those of 5 free anthraquinones and gallic acid were increased to different extents; a new component 5-HMF was formed. CONCLUSIONS This study successfully optimizes the simmering technology of R. palmatum. There is a significant difference in the chemical components before and after processing, which can explain that simmering technology slows down the relase of R. palmatum and beneficiate it.
4.Study on anti-atherosclerosis mechanism of blood components of Guanxin Qiwei tablets based on HPLC-Q-Exactive-MS/MS and network pharmacology
Yuan-hong LIAO ; Jing-kun LU ; Yan NIU ; Jun LI ; Ren BU ; Peng-peng ZHANG ; Yue KANG ; Yue-wu WANG
Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica 2025;60(2):449-458
The analysis presented here is based on the blood components of Guanxin Qiwei tablets, the key anti-atherosclerosis pathway of Guanxin Qiwei tablets was screened by network pharmacology, and the anti-atherosclerosis mechanism of Guanxin Qiwei tablets was clarified and verified by cell experiments. HPLC-Q-Exactive-MS/MS technique was used to analyze the components of Guanxin Qiwei tablets into blood, to determine the precise mass charge ratio of the compounds, and to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the components by using secondary mass spectrometry fragments and literature comparison. Finally, a total of 42 components of Guanxin Qiwei tablets into blood were identified. To better understand the interactions, we employed the Swiss Target Prediction database to predict the associated targets. Atherosclerosis (AS) disease targets were searched in disease databases Genecard, OMIM and Disgent, and 181 intersection targets of disease targets and component targets were obtained by Venny 2.1.0 software. Protein interactions were analyzed by String database. The 32 core targets were selected by Cytscape software. Gene Ontology (GO) enrichment analysis and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathway analysis were performed in DAVID database. It was found that the anti-atherosclerosis pathways of Guanxin Qiwei tablets mainly include lipid metabolism and atherosclerosis and AGE-RAGE signaling pathway in diabetic complications and other signal pathways. The core targets and the core compounds were interlinked, and it was found that cryptotanshinone and tanshinone ⅡA in Guanxin Qiwei tablets were well bound to TNF, PPAR
5.Treatment of Sepsis-induced Inflammatory Responses with Xijiao Dihuangtang by Modulation of PKM2-mediated One-carbon Metabolism Pathway
Qixiang YAN ; Yeyan ZHU ; Fan GE ; Qimeng SUN ; Leyao YE ; Fang TIAN ; Jun LU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(10):18-26
ObjectiveTo investigate the effects of Xijiao Dihuangtang (XJDHT) on mice with sepsis and cellular models of sepsis and explore its molecular mechanism in alleviating sepsis-induced inflammatory responses via regulating pyruvate kinase M2 (PKM2)-mediated one-carbon metabolism pathway. MethodsForty C57BL/6N mice were randomly divided into four groups: normal group, model group, low-dose XJDHT group (7.7 g·kg-1), and high-dose XJDHT group (15.4 g·kg-1). After one week of continuous gavage, sepsis was induced using cecal ligation and puncture (CLP) in groups except the normal group. 24 h after the surgery, mortality rates in all groups were recorded, and serum cytokines were measured by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Lung histopathology was examined by hematoxylin-eosin (HE) staining. During the in vitro experiment, the human monocytic leukemia cell line (THP-1) was exposed to various concentrations of XJDHT and treated with lipopolysaccharide (LPS) at a final concentration of 2 mg·L-1 for 24 h. Cell apoptosis was detected using terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase dUTP nick end labeling (TUNEL) assay. Protein levels of tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), interleukin-1β (IL-1β), B-cell lymphoma 2 (Bcl-2), and Bcl-2-associated X protein (Bax) were measured by Western blot. Transcriptome sequencing was performed to analyze differentially expressed genes in all groups and conduct gene ontology (GO) enrichment. Key genes in the one-carbon metabolism pathway, including pyruvate kinase M2 (PKM2), 5-methyltetrahydrofolate-homocysteine methyltransferase (MTR), and phosphoglycerate dehydrogenase (PHGDH), were verified by Western blot. A PKM2 inhibition model was established using shikonin for further protein expression analysis. ResultsAnimal experiments showed that compared with the normal group, the model group exhibited significantly elevated body temperature and lung pathology (P<0.01) and increased serum TNF-α and IL-1β levels (P<0.01). High-dose XJDHT reduced body temperature and lung tissue damage (P<0.01) and significantly decreased serum TNF-α and IL-1β levels (P<0.01). Low-dose XJDHT treatment showed no significant temperature change (P<0.01) but reduced serum TNF-α and IL-1β levels (P<0.01). Transcriptome sequencing and Western blot revealed significant differences in the expression of TNF-α, IL-1β, and one-carbon metabolism genes (PKM2, MTR, and PHGDH) (P<0.01). Cell experiments demonstrated that compared to the normal group, the model group showed elevated protein expressions of TNF-α and IL-1β in THP-1 cells (P<0.01), decreased Bcl-2/Bax ratio, and increased apoptosis (P<0.01). Transcriptome sequencing and Western blot revealed significant differences in the expression of TNF-α, IL-1β, and one-carbon metabolism genes (PKM2, MTR, and PHGDH) (P<0.01). Compared to the model group, high-dose XJDHT significantly increased Bax/Bcl-2 ratio and PHGDH protein expression (P<0.01) and effectively reduced cell apoptosis (P<0.01) while down-regulating protein expressions of TNF-α, IL-1β, PKM2, and MTR (P<0.01). Low-dose XJDHT moderately increased Bax/Bcl-2 ratio and PHGDH protein expression (P<0.05), reduced apoptosis (P<0.05), and decreased IL-1β and MTR protein levels (P<0.05, P<0.01), but there were no significant changes in TNF-α and PKM2 expression. After PKM2 inhibition by shikonin in THP-1 cells, the expression of protein related to one-carbon metabolism was detected. Compared with the blank group, the LPS-induced model group showed significantly upregulated PKM2 and MTR protein expression (P<0.01) and downregulated PHGDH expression (P<0.01). Compared with the model group, shikonin treatment significantly reduced PKM2 expression (P<0.05), increased PHGDH expression (P<0.01), and decreased MTR expression (P<0.05). ConclusionXJDHT can inhibit the release of inflammatory factors in sepsis, and its mechanism is related to the intervention of the PKM2-regulated one-carbon metabolism pathway in macrophages.
6.Study on leaf epidermal microstructure of medicinal blue herbs
Yunjun BAI ; Yuyang ZHAO ; Yan JIN ; Lu FU ; Yuan YUAN
Journal of Pharmaceutical Practice and Service 2025;43(4):174-179
Objective The complex evolutionary history of the origin of medicinal blue herbs might result in the presence of adulterants, affecting the accuracy and safety of clinical medication. To provide a reference basis for the identification of medicinal blue herbs with leaves as the medicinal part, based on the leaf epidermis microstructure. Methods The species belonging to medicinal blue herbs and their close relatives (10 species from 4 genera) were systematically investigated. The leaf epidermis microstructure of these species was observed and analyzed by optical microscopy and scanning electron microscopy. A species retrieval table was established based on the microstructure characteristics. Results By combining the distribution of stomata, types of subsidiary cells, stomatal index, stomatal density, characteristics of the periclinal walls of epidermal cells, and epidermal appendages, the species Clerodendrum cyrtophyllum, Polygonum tinctorium, Isatis indigotica, I. violascens, I. costata, I. minima, Strobilanthes wallichii, S. dalzielii, S. pentstemonoides, and S. cusia can be accurately distinguished. Conclusion Microscopic characteristics of leaf epidermis can provide reference data for accurately differentiating the botanical origins of medicinal blue herbs.
7.Trends in global burden due to visceral leishmaniasis from 1990 to 2021 and projections up to 2035
Guobing YANG ; Aiwei HE ; Yongjun LI ; Shan LÜ ; Muxin CHEN ; Liguang TIAN ; Qin LIU ; Lei DUAN ; Yan LU ; Jian YANG ; Shizhu LI ; Xiaonong ZHOU ; Jichun WANG ; Shunxian ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control 2025;37(1):35-43
Objective To investigate the global burden of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) from 1990 to 2021 and predict the trends in the burden of VL from 2022 to 2035, so as to provide insights into global VL prevention and control. Methods The global age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates of VL and their 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) were captured from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) data resources. The trends in the global burden of VL were evaluated with average annual percent change (AAPC) and 95% confidence interval (CI) from 1990 to 2021, and gender-, age-, country-, geographical area- and socio-demographic index (SDI)-stratified burdens of VL were analyzed. The trends in the global burden of VL were projected with a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model from 2022 to 2035, and the associations of age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs rates of VL with SDI levels were examined with a smoothing spline model. Results The global age-standardized incidence [AAPC = -0.25%, 95% CI: (-0.25%, -0.24%)], prevalence [AAPC = -0.06%, 95% CI: (-0.06%, -0.06%)], mortality [AAPC = -0.25%, 95% CI: (-0.25%, -0.24%)] and DALYs rates of VL [AAPC = -2.38%, 95% CI: (-2.44%, -2.33%)] all appeared a tendency towards a decline from 1990 to 2021, and the highest age-standardized incidence [2.55/105, 95% UI: (1.49/105, 4.07/105)], prevalence [0.64/105, 95% UI: (0.37/105, 1.02/105)], mortality [0.51/105, 95% UI: (0, 1.80/105)] and DALYs rates of VL [33.81/105, 95% UI: (0.06/105, 124.09/105)] were seen in tropical Latin America in 2021. The global age-standardized incidence and prevalence of VL were both higher among men [0.57/105, 95% UI: (0.45/105, 0.72/105); 0.14/105, 95% UI: (0.11/105, 0.18/105)] than among women [0.27/105, 95% UI: (0.21/105, 0.33/105); 0.06/105, 95% UI: (0.05/105, 0.08/105)], and the highest mortality of VL was found among children under 5 years of age [0.24/105, 95% UI: (0.08/105, 0.66/105)]. The age-standardized incidence (r = -0.483, P < 0.001), prevalence (r = -0.483, P < 0.001), mortality (r = -0.511, P < 0.001) and DALYs rates of VL (r = -0.514, P < 0.001) correlated negatively with SDI levels from 1990 to 2021. In addition, the global burden of VL was projected with the BAPC model to appear a tendency towards a decline from 2022 to 2035, and the age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality and DALYs rates were projected to be reduced to 0.11/105, 0.03/105, 0.02/105 and 1.44/105 in 2035, respectively. Conclusions Although the global burden of VL appeared an overall tendency towards a decline from 1990 to 2021, the burden of VL showed a tendency towards a rise in Central Asia and western sub-Saharan African areas. The age-standardized incidence and prevalence rates of VL were relatively higher among men, and the age-standardized mortality of VL was relatively higher among children under 5 years of age. The global burden of VL was projected to continue to decline from 2022 to 2035.
8.Modulation of colonic DNA methyltransferase by mild moxibustion and electroacupuncture in ulcerative colitis TET2 knockout mice
Gege FENG ; Yue ZHANG ; Huangan WU ; Lu ZHU ; Hongxiao XU ; Zhe MA ; Yan HUANG
Digital Chinese Medicine 2025;8(1):100-110
Objective:
To investigate the mechanism of in alleviating colonic mucosal inflammation in ten-eleven translocation (TET) protein 2 gene knockout (TET2-/-) mice with ulcerative colitis (UC) by regulating DNA methyltransferase (DNMT) and DNA hydroxymethylase.
Methods:
Male specific pathogen-free (SPF) grade C57BL/6J wild-type (WT) mice (n = 8) and TET2-/- mice (n = 20) were used to establish UC models by freely drinking 3% dextran sulfate sodium solution for 7 d. After UC model validation through histopathological examination in two mice from each type, the remaining mice were divided into four groups (n = 6 in each group): WT model (WT + UC), TET2-/- model (TET2-/- + UC), TET2-/- mild moxibustion (TET2-/- + MM), and TET2-/- electroacupuncture (TET2-/- + EA) groups. TET2-/- + MM group received mild moxibustion on Tianshu (ST25) and Qihai (CV6) for 10 min daily for 7 d. The TET2-/- + EA group also applied electroacupuncture (1 mA, 2/100 Hz) at the same acupoints for 10 min daily for 7 d. The disease activity index (DAI) scores of each group of mice were accessed daily. The colon lengths of mice in groups were measured following intervention. The pathological changes in the colon tissues were observed with hematoxylin and eosin (HE) staining. The concentrations of interleukin (IL)-6, C-C motif chemokine 17 (CCL17), and C-X-C motif chemokine ligand 10 (CXCL10) in serum were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The expression of DNMT proteins (DNMT1, DNMT3A, and DNMT3B) in the colon tissues was detected by immunohistochemistry. The expression of 5-methylcytosine (5-mC), 5-hydroxymethylcytosine (5-hmC), histone deacetylase 2 (HDAC2), and DNA hydroxymethylase family proteins (TET 1 and TET3) was detected using immunofluorescence, which also determined the co-localization of TET1 and IL-6 protein.
Results:
Compared with WT + UC group, TET2-/- + UC group exhibited significantly higher DAI scores and shorter colon lengths (P < 0.01). Both mild moxibustion and electroacupuncture significantly decreased DAI scores and ameliorated colon shortening in TET2-/- mice (P < 0.001). Histopathological scores of TET2-/- + UC mice were significantly higher than those of WT + UC group (P < 0.001) and were significantly reduced after both mild moxibustion and electroacupuncture interventions (P < 0.001). Serum levels of IL-6, CCL17, and CXCL10 were significantly elevated in TET2-/- + UC group compared with WT + UC group (P < 0.001). Mild moxibustion significantly reduced IL-6, CCL17, and CXCL10 levels (P < 0.001, P < 0.001, and P < 0.01, respectively), while electroacupuncture also significantly reduced IL-6, CCL17, and CXCL10 levels (P < 0.05, P < 0.01, and P < 0.01, respectively). TET2-/- + UC mice showed increased expression levels of DNMT1, DNMT3A , DNMT3B, and 5-mC (P < 0.05, P < 0.01 and P < 0.001, respectively), with decreased expression levels of TET1, TET3, 5-hmC, and HDAC2 (P < 0.001). Mild moxibustion significantly reduced DNMT1, DNMT3B, and 5-mC levels (P < 0.05, P < 0.01, and P < 0.001, respectively), while increasing expression levels of TET1, TET3, 5-hmC, and HDAC2 (P < 0.001, P < 0.001, P < 0.05, and P < 0.001, respectively). Electroacupuncture significantly decreased 5-mC and DNMT3B levels (P < 0.001 and P < 0.01, respectively) and increased 5-hmC and HDAC2 levels (P < 0.05 and P < 0.001, respectively), but did not significantly affect TET1 and TET3 expression (P > 0.05). Compared with TET2-/- + MM group, TET2-/- + EA group showed significantly higher 5-mC expression (P < 0.001). TET2-/- + UC group exhibited markedly increased IL-6 expression and higher co-localization of TET1 and IL-6 in mucosal epithelium, whereas minimal IL-6 expression was observed in the other groups.
Conclusion
Mild moxibustion and electroacupuncture significantly ameliorate colonic inflammation exacerbated by TET2 deficiency in UC mice via epigenetic modulation. Distinct mechanisms exist between the two interventions: mild moxibustion regulates both DNMT and hydroxymethylase, whereas electroacupuncture primarily affects DNMT.
9.Dynamics of eosinophil infiltration and microglia activation in brain tissues of mice infected with Angiostrongylus cantonensis
Fanna WEI ; Renjie ZHANG ; Yahong HU ; Xiaoyu QIN ; Yunhai GUO ; Xiaojin MO ; Yan LU ; Jiahui SUN ; Yan ZHOU ; Jiatian GUO ; Peng SONG ; Yanhong CHU ; Bin XU ; Ting ZHANG ; Yuchun CAI ; Muxin CHEN
Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control 2025;37(2):163-175
Objective To investigate the changes in eosinophil counts and the activation of microglial cells in the brain tissues of mice at different stages of Angiostrongylus cantonensis infection, and to examine the role of microglia in regulating the progression of angiostrongyliasis and unravel the possible molecular mechanisms. Methods Fifty BALB/c mice were randomly divided into the control group and the 7-d, 14-d, 21-day and 25-d infection groups, of 10 mice in each group. All mice in infection groups were infected with 30 stage III A. cantonensis larvae by gavage, and animals in the control group was given an equal amount of physiological saline. Five mice were collected from each of infection groups on days 7, 14, 21 d and 25 d post-infection, and 5 mice were collected from the control group on the day of oral gavage. The general and focal functional impairment was scored using the Clark scoring method to assess the degree of mouse neurological impairment. Five mice from each of infection groups were sacrificed on days 7, 14, 21 d and 25 d post-infection, and 5 mice from the control group were sacrificed on the day of oral gavage. Mouse brain tissues were sampled, and the pathological changes of brain tissues were dynamically observed using hematoxylin and eosin (HE) staining. Immunofluorescence staining with eosinophilic cationic protein (ECP) and ionized calcium binding adaptor molecule 1 (Iba1) was used to assess the degree of eosinophil infiltration and the counts of microglial cells in mouse brain tissues in each group, and the morphological parameters of microglial cells (skeleton analysis and fractal analysis) were quantified by using Image J software to determine the morphological changes of microglial cells. In addition, the expression of M1 microglia markers Fcγ receptor III (Fcgr3), Fcγ receptor IIb (Fcgr2b) and CD86 antigen (Cd86), M2 microglia markers Arginase 1 (Arg1), macrophage mannose receptor C-type 1 (Mrc1), chitinase-like 3 (Chil3), and phagocytosis genes myeloid cell triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 2 (Trem2), CD68 antigen (Cd68), and apolipoprotein E (Apoe) was quantified using real-time quantitative reverse transcription PCR (RT-qPCR) assay in the mouse cerebral cortex of mice post-infection. Results A large number of A. cantonensis larvae were seen on the mouse meninges surface post-infection, and many neuronal nuclei were crumpled and deeply stained, with a large number of bleeding points in the meninges. The median Clark scores of mouse general functional impairment were 0 (interquartile range, 0), 0 (interquartile range, 0.5), 6 (interquartile range, 1.0), 14 (interquartile range, 8.5) points and 20 (interquartile range, 9.0) points in the control group and the 7-d, 14-d, 21-d and 25-d groups, respectively (H = 22.45, P < 0.01), and the median Clark scores of mouse focal functional impairment were 0 (interquartile range, 0), 2 (interquartile range, 2.5), 7 (interquartile range, 3.0), 18 (interquartile range, 5.0) points and 25 (interquartile range, 6.5) points in the control group and the 7-d, 14-d, 21-d and 25-d groups, respectively (H = 22.72, P < 0.01). The mean scores of mice general and focal functional impairment were all higher in the infection groups than in the control group (all P values < 0.05). Immunofluorescence staining showed a significant difference in the eosinophil counts in mouse brain tissues among the five groups (F = 40.05, P < 0.000 1), and the eosinophil counts were significantly higher in mouse brain tissues in the 14-d (3.08 ± 0.78) and 21-d infection groups (5.97 ± 1.37) than in the control group (1.00 ± 0.28) (both P values < 0.05). Semi-quantitative analysis of microglia immunofluorescence showed a significant difference in the counts of microglial cells among the five groups (F = 17.66, P < 0.000 1), and higher Iba1 levels were detected in mouse brain tissues in 14-d (5.75 ± 1.28), 21-d (6.23 ± 1.89) and 25-d infection groups (3.70 ± 1.30) than in the control group (1.00 ± 0.30) (all P values < 0.05). Skeleton and fractal analyses showed that the branch length [(162.04 ± 34.10) μm vs. (395.37 ± 64.11) μm; t = 5.566, P < 0.05] and fractal dimension of microglial cells (1.30 ± 0.01 vs. 1.41 ± 0.03; t = 5.266, P < 0.05) were reduced in mouse brain tissues in the 21-d infection group relative to the control group. In addition, there were significant differences among the 5 groups in terms of M1 and M2 microglia markers Fcgr3 (F = 48.34, P < 0.05), Fcgr2b (F = 55.46, P < 0.05), Cd86 (F = 24.44, P < 0.05), Arg1 (F = 31.18, P < 0.05), Mrc1 (F = 15.42, P < 0.05) and Chil3 (F = 24.41, P < 0.05), as well as phagocytosis markers Trem2 (F = 21.19, P < 0.05), Cd68 (F = 43.95, P < 0.05) and Apoe (F = 7.12, P < 0.05) in mice brain tissues. Conclusions A. cantonensis infections may induce severe pathological injuries in mouse brain tissues that are characterized by massive eosinophil infiltration and persistent activation of microglia cells, thereby resulting in progressive deterioration of neurological functions.
10.Predictive Modeling of Symptomatic Intracranial Hemorrhage Following Endovascular Thrombectomy: Insights From the Nationwide TREAT-AIS Registry
Jia-Hung CHEN ; I-Chang SU ; Yueh-Hsun LU ; Yi-Chen HSIEH ; Chih-Hao CHEN ; Chun-Jen LIN ; Yu-Wei CHEN ; Kuan-Hung LIN ; Pi-Shan SUNG ; Chih-Wei TANG ; Hai-Jui CHU ; Chuan-Hsiu FU ; Chao-Liang CHOU ; Cheng-Yu WEI ; Shang-Yih YAN ; Po-Lin CHEN ; Hsu-Ling YEH ; Sheng-Feng SUNG ; Hon-Man LIU ; Ching-Huang LIN ; Meng LEE ; Sung-Chun TANG ; I-Hui LEE ; Lung CHAN ; Li-Ming LIEN ; Hung-Yi CHIOU ; Jiunn-Tay LEE ; Jiann-Shing JENG ;
Journal of Stroke 2025;27(1):85-94
Background:
and Purpose Symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH) following endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) is a severe complication associated with adverse functional outcomes and increased mortality rates. Currently, a reliable predictive model for sICH risk after EVT is lacking.
Methods:
This study used data from patients aged ≥20 years who underwent EVT for anterior circulation stroke from the nationwide Taiwan Registry of Endovascular Thrombectomy for Acute Ischemic Stroke (TREAT-AIS). A predictive model including factors associated with an increased risk of sICH after EVT was developed to differentiate between patients with and without sICH. This model was compared existing predictive models using nationwide registry data to evaluate its relative performance.
Results:
Of the 2,507 identified patients, 158 developed sICH after EVT. Factors such as diastolic blood pressure, Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score, platelet count, glucose level, collateral score, and successful reperfusion were associated with the risk of sICH after EVT. The TREAT-AIS score demonstrated acceptable predictive accuracy (area under the curve [AUC]=0.694), with higher scores being associated with an increased risk of sICH (odds ratio=2.01 per score increase, 95% confidence interval=1.64–2.45, P<0.001). The discriminatory capacity of the score was similar in patients with symptom onset beyond 6 hours (AUC=0.705). Compared to existing models, the TREAT-AIS score consistently exhibited superior predictive accuracy, although this difference was marginal.
Conclusions
The TREAT-AIS score outperformed existing models, and demonstrated an acceptable discriminatory capacity for distinguishing patients according to sICH risk levels. However, the differences between models were only marginal. Further research incorporating periprocedural and postprocedural factors is required to improve the predictive accuracy.


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