1.Comparison of the prediction effects of LSTM, SARIMA and SARIMAX models on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease
ZHANG Xiaoqiao ; ZHANG Xiaodie ; ZHAO Zhenxi ; XIE Pengliu ; DAI Min
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(3):280-284,287
Objective:
To compare the effects of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) , seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous regressors (SARIMAX) and long short-term memory neural network (LSTM) models in predicting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD).
Methods:
Monthly incidence data of HFMD in Kunming City from 2010 to 2019 were collected. SARIMA, SARIMAX and LSTM models were established using the monthly incidence of HFMD from 2010 to 2018 to predict the monthly incidence of HFMD from January to December 2019. The prediction performance of the three models was compared using mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The optimal prediction model was selected based on the principle of minimizing MSE, RMSE, MAE and MAPE.
Results:
The HFMD cases were reported every month in Kunming City from 2010 to 2019, with the incidence fluctuating between 188.27/105 and 363.15/105. The disease exhibited a biennial high-incidence bimodal distribution. Among the four evaluation indicators for the training and testing sets, the LSTM model had the smaller values: MSE was 63.182 and 102.745, RMSE was 7.949 and 10.136, MAE was 6.535 and 7.620, and MAPE was 46.726% and 31.138%. The LSTM model performed the better, followed by the SARIMA model, while the SARIMAX model had the relatively poorest performance.
Conclusion
The LSTM model outperforms the SARIMA and SARIMAX models in predicting the incidence of HFMD.
2.Relationship between changes of CD80, CD86 and Th1/Th2 cytokines and the severity of coxsackievirus A6 hand-foot-mouth disease
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2025;36(2):30-34
Objective To analyze the relationship between changes of CD80, CD86 and Th1/Th2 cytokines and the severity of coxsackievirus A6 (CVA6) hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD). Methods Among the 380 children with CVA6 HFMD in the 971th Hospital of the People's Liberation Army Navy and the 94th Hospital of the Joint Logistic Support Force were selected from January 2021 to January 2024. According to the disease severity, the children were divided into common group and severe group. The levels of CD80, CD86 and Th1/Th2 cytokines (interferon-γ (IFN-γ), interleukin-4 (IL-4)) were compared between the two groups. The ROC curve was used to analyze the evaluation efficiency of CD80, CD86, IFN gamma, and IL-4 levels on the severity of CVA6 HFMD. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the influencing factors of the severity of CVA6 HFMD. Results The levels of CD80, CD86, IFN-γ and IL-4 in the severe group were higher than those in the common group (P<0.05). The AUCs of CD80, CD86, IFN-γ, IL-4 and their combined detection in evaluating severity of CVA6 HFMD were 0.769, 0.717, 0.756, 0.864, and 0.917, respectively. The AUC value and specificity of combined detection were higher than those of single detection of each index (P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that age ≤ 3 years old was a risk factors (P<0.05), while time from onset to diagnosis ≤ 3d, duration of fever ≤ 3d, WB ≤ 12×109/L, low expression of CD80, low expression of IFN-γ, and low expression of IL-4 were protective factors (P<0.05). Conclusion CD80, CD86 and Th1/Th2 cytokines (IFN-γ, IL-4) are related to the severity of CVA6 HFMD. Early monitoring of CD80, CD86, IFN-γ and IL-4 levels in children is conducive to understanding their disease progression and guiding physician treatment.
3.Significance and techniques of pelvic floor reconstruction in laparoscopic low anterior resection for rectal cancer
International Journal of Surgery 2024;51(1):12-16
The residual pelvic floor cavity formed by laparoscopic low anterior resection for rectal cancer can result in some complications, such as spread of pelvic infection following anastomotic leakage, adhesive intestinal obstruction, and may increase the probability of radiation intestinal injury in case of postoperative radiotherapy. Reconstructing the pelvic floor can prevent the small intestine from entering the residual cavity, reduce the risk of intestinal obstruction and radiation induced intestinal injury; prevent or reduce the occurrence and severity of anastomotic leakage. Reconstructing the pelvic floor can also improve the anal function after low anterior resection to a certain extent and enhance the quality of life of patients. Direct suturing of the pelvic floor peritoneum and pedicled greater omentum flap graft transplantation are currently two commonly used pelvic floor reconstruction methods, which are relatively simple to operate, easy to promote, and worthy of routine application.
4.A retrospective study on the clinical characteristics and prognosis of children with severe glycogen storage disease type Ⅱ
Pan WANG ; Yingchao LIU ; Xiaoqiao LI ; Suyun QIAN
Chinese Pediatric Emergency Medicine 2024;31(6):437-442
Objective:To summarize and analyze the clinical characteristics, treatment and prognosis of glycogen storage disease type Ⅱ(GSD Ⅱ) patients admitted to pediatric intensive care units(PICU), and to improve the pediatricians' understanding of children with severe GSD Ⅱ.Methods:Children with GSD Ⅱ admitted to PICU at Beijing Children's Hospital of Capital Medical University between January 2010 and December 2021 were included. Patient's data were collected through the electronic medical record system.After the patient was discharged,telephone follow-ups were conducted regularly for over a year.Results:A total of eight patients with a median age of 30.5 months were included. There were four patients with infantile GSD Ⅱ, whose median age of onset was 5.5 months. There were four patients with late-onset GSD Ⅱ, whose median age of onset was 36.0 months. Eight patients required continuous noninvasive/invasive respiratory support. Three patients with infantile GSD Ⅱ required respiratory support within one month of onset, and three patients with late onset GSD Ⅱ required respiratory support within one year of onset. A total of six patients had cardiac arrest during the course of the disease. One patient was regularly treated with enzyme replacement therapy during hospitalization but his condition did not improve significantly. Three patients were discharged following medical advice,including one patient continuing noninvasive respiratory support after discharge, and two patients requiring onging invasive respiratory support.A total of four children died,including one being an in-hospital death,and three occuring within one year after hospital discharge. A total of 14 genotypes were detected in eight patients, of which three were newly discovered gene mutations.Conclusion:The children with GSD Ⅱ admitted to PICU have severe respiratory dysfunction and need continuous respiratory support during the early stage of the disease. The incidence of cardiopulmonary arrest caused by infection and respiratory muscle weakness is high. It is recommended to closely monitor the lung function and cardiac function of such children, and actively give the prevention and treatment of infectious diseases. Whether enzyme replacement therapy can benefit patients with severe GSD Ⅱ and whether the newly identified mutations correlate with disease severity needs to be further evaluated.
5.PRX1-positive mesenchymal stem cells drive molar morphogenesis
Xu XIAOQIAO ; Gong XUYAN ; Zhang LEI ; Zhang HAN ; Sun YAO
International Journal of Oral Science 2024;16(2):293-305
Mammalian teeth,developing inseparable from epithelial-mesenchymal interaction,come in many shapes and the key factors governing tooth morphology deserve to be answered.By merging single-cell RNA sequencing analysis with lineage tracing models,we have unearthed a captivating correlation between the contrasting morphology of mouse molars and the specific presence of PRX1+cells within M1.These PRX1+cells assume a profound responsibility in shaping tooth morphology through a remarkable divergence in dental mesenchymal cell proliferation.Deeper into the mechanisms,we have discovered that Wnt5a,bestowed by mesenchymal PRX1+cells,stimulates mesenchymal cell proliferation while orchestrating molar morphogenesis through WNT signaling pathway.The loss of Wnt5a exhibits a defect phenotype similar to that of siPrx1.Exogenous addition of WNT5A can successfully reverse the inhibited cell proliferation and consequent deviant appearance exhibited in Prx1-deficient tooth germs.These findings bestow compelling evidence of PRX1-positive mesenchymal cells to be potential target in regulating tooth morphology.
6.Effects of GIMAP8 and SEC14L5 on development of pulmonary fibrosis based on transcriptomics
Xiaoqiao LIANG ; Zhuyubing FANG ; Ying YANG ; Zhouyang HE ; Li NING
Acta Laboratorium Animalis Scientia Sinica 2024;32(4):503-512
Objective Utilizing transcriptomic sequencing,this study aimed to monitor the expression alterations of GIMAP8 and SEC14L5 throughout the progression of pulmonary fibrosis,thereby providing insights into the underlying mechanisms of its pathogenesis and evolution.Methods C57BL/6 male mice were assigned in a randomized manner to either the Silica or PBS group.The Silica group underwent non-exposed endotracheal intubation on days 0 and 14 with 50 μL 100 mg/mL silica suspension,while the control group received 50 μL phosphate-buffered saline solution.On day 28,lung function was detected and the mice were sacrificed,and lung morphology,fibrosis,and mRNA levels were observed.Results When contrasted with individuals in good health,a differential expression analysis of mRNA in patients with pneumoconiosis identified a total of 584 mRNAs with significant expression differences.Among these,the expression of 242 mRNA was observed to be markedly elevated,while that of 342 mRNA was found to be considerably diminished.The enrichment analysis indicated that the primarily affected mRNAs with altered expression were associated with pathways such as p53,nuclear factor-κB,tumor necrosis factor,AMP-activated protein kinase,and other signaling pathways.In the Silica mice,the alveolar structures were compromised,characterized by the presence of collagen fiber accumulation and the formation of fibrous masses.In contrast,the PBS mice maintained a normal pulmonary architecture.GIMAP8 expression was up-regulated whereas SEC14L5 expression was down-regulated in lung tissues in the Silica mice,and mice in the Silica group had poorer lung function.Conclusions The onset and progression of pulmonary fibrosis may be significantly influenced by GIMAP8 and SEC14L5 expression in patients with pneumoconiosis and in silicosis animal models.This association could serve as a foundational molecular insight,paving the way for the development of preventative and therapeutic strategies against these conditions.
7.The improvement of intestinal immune barrier function in immunoglobulin A nephropathy rats by Atractylolactone-Ⅲ nanoparticles
Shengfen LIN ; Xiaoqiao CAI ; Yongqiang LIN ; Chaochao WANG
China Pharmacist 2024;27(6):951-960
Objective To explore the effects of Atractylenolide-Ⅲ(AT-Ⅲ)on the intestinal immune barrier and kidney of rats with immunoglobulin A nephropathy(IgAN),and develop AT-Ⅲ nanoparticles to optimize its protective efficacy.Methods In this study,the zeolitic imidazolate framework(ZIF-8)loaded with AT-Ⅲ was used to prepare ZIF-8@AT-Ⅲnanoparticles.Morphological and structural characterization of the prepared samples was conducted using transmission electron microscopy and X-ray powder diffraction.48 rats were randomly divided into the normal control group,IgAN group,IgAN+AT-Ⅲ group,and IgAN+ZIF-8@AT-Ⅲ group.IgAN rats were treated with AT-Ⅲ and ZIF-8@AT-Ⅲ,and the detections of hepatic and renal function,glomerular IgA deposition,and intestinal immune barrier function were performed.Results The synthesis of ZIF-8@AT-Ⅲ nanoparticles with elevated drug loading,stability,and pH responsiveness had been successfully accomplished.The average particle size of ZIF-8@AT-Ⅲ nanoparticles was(70.62±1.07)nm,the Zeta potential was(-26.46±1.22)mV,the drug loading capacity was(19.2±1.3%),and the encapsulation efficiency was(64.0%±0.6%).Furthermore,rapid release was observed in a pH 5.5 environment,which was significantly higher than that in the pH 7.4 environment.Both AT-Ⅲ and ZIF-8@AT-Ⅲcould alleviate the destruction of intestinal wall structure and the infiltration of inflammatory cells,significantly downregulate the levels of(DAO)and(D-LA)in the serum.Moreover,there is a noteworthy upregulation in the expression of(ZO-1)and Claudin-5 in intestinal mucosal tissue,thereby substantially improving the immune barrier function and intestinal permeability in IgAN rats.This intervention also inhibited the deposition of IgA in renal glomeruli and alleviated kidney damage,and ZIF-8@AT-Ⅲ was more effective than AT-Ⅲ.Conclusion AT-Ⅲ alleviates IgAN in rats by improving intestinal immune barrier function and permeability.ZIF-8-loaded AT-Ⅲ serves as an excellent drug delivery system,enhancing the therapeutic efficacy of AT-Ⅲ in IgAN treatment.
8.Effect of Neibu Huangqi Decoction combined with Kangfuxin Liquid on wound healing after hemorrhoid fistula
Chungeng LI ; Xuexian LIU ; Liming DAI ; Xiaoqiao LIU ; Jun MA ; Zaihua LI ; Yonghui WEI ; Feng GU ; Zihao CHEN ; Yajun JIANG
International Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2023;45(8):973-976
Objective:To investigate the effects of Neibu Huangqi Decoction combined with Kangfuxin Liquid on wound healing after hemorrhoid fistula.Methods:Randomized controlled trial. A total of 90 patients with hemorrhoid fistula surgery in Tangshan Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine from January 2020 to June 2021 were selected as the observation objects and divided into 2 groups by random number table method, with 45 cases in each group. The control group was treated with Kangfuxin Liquid after surgery, and the observation group was treated with Neibu Huangqi Decoction. Both groups were treated continuously for 14 days. Wound symptom score was performed before and after treatment. The levels of TNF-α, IL-6 and IL-8 were determined by ELISA. The wound healing time was observed and the wound healing rate was calculated. Adverse reactions were recorded and clinical efficacy was evaluated.Results:The total effective rate was 93.33% (42/45) in the observation group and 66.67% (30/45) in the control group, with statistical significance ( χ2=9.89, P=0.002). After treatment, the scores of pain [(0.63±0.14) vs. (0.97±0.27), t=7.50], exudation [(0.67±0.12) vs. (1.09±0.31), t=8.48], edema [(0.78±0.17) vs.(1.25±0.36), t=7.92], pruritus [(0.78±0.20) vs. (1.32±0.33), t=9.39] were lower than those in the control group ( P<0.01); serum TNF-α [(33.46±2.86) μg/L vs. (45.78±3.92) μg/L, t=25.39], IL-6 [(41.86±5.84) μg/L vs. (56.12±6.75) μg/L, t=15.98], IL-8 [(27.40±3.58) ng/L vs. (36.16±3.84) ng/L, t=16.69] were lower than those in the control group ( P<0.01). The wound healing time of the observation group was shorter than that of the control group ( t=8.60, P<0.01), and the wound healing rate was higher than that of the control group ( t=24.65, P<0.01). During treatment, the incidence of adverse reactions was 11.11% (5/45) in the observation group and 6.67% (3/45) in the control group, without statistical significance ( χ2=0.14, P=0.711). Conclusion:Neibu Huangqi Decoction combined with Kangfuxin Liquid can promote wound healing, reduce inflammatory cytokines, relieve pain and exudation, improve clinical efficacy, and have few adverse reactions.
9.Tooth number abnormality: from bench to bedside.
Han ZHANG ; Xuyan GONG ; Xiaoqiao XU ; Xiaogang WANG ; Yao SUN
International Journal of Oral Science 2023;15(1):5-5
Tooth number abnormality is one of the most common dental developmental diseases, which includes both tooth agenesis and supernumerary teeth. Tooth development is regulated by numerous developmental signals, such as the well-known Wnt, BMP, FGF, Shh and Eda pathways, which mediate the ongoing complex interactions between epithelium and mesenchyme. Abnormal expression of these crutial signalling during this process may eventually lead to the development of anomalies in tooth number; however, the underlying mechanisms remain elusive. In this review, we summarized the major process of tooth development, the latest progress of mechanism studies and newly reported clinical investigations of tooth number abnormality. In addition, potential treatment approaches for tooth number abnormality based on developmental biology are also discussed. This review not only provides a reference for the diagnosis and treatment of tooth number abnormality in clinical practice but also facilitates the translation of basic research to the clinical application.
Gene Expression Regulation, Developmental
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Odontogenesis
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Signal Transduction
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Tooth/metabolism*
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Humans
10.Effect of poria cocos on gastrointestinal motility in mice
Min FENG ; Ziming JIA ; Ming WAN ; Bolin FAN ; Xiaoqiao TANG ; Wenhua CHENG ; Fanzhong SUN
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2023;34(5):39-41
Objective To investigate the regulatory effect of poria cocos on gastrointestinal motility in mice. Methods A total of 130 Kunming mice were randomly divided into negative control group, low-dose and high-dose groups of raw poria cocos powder, low-dose and high-dose groups of cooked poria cocos powder, low-dose and high-dose groups of poria cocos surrogate culture powder, low-dose, medium-dose and high-dose groups of poria cocos water extract, and low-dose, medium-dose and high-dose groups of poria cocos alcohol extract, with 10 mice in each group. The animals were administered by gavage for 7 days, once a day. After the last administration, the intestinal propulsion function test and gastric solid emptying test were conducted to observe the regulating effect of poria cocos on gastrointestinal motility of mice. Results Compared with the negative control group, the small intestine propulsion rate in the low-dose group of poria cocos surrogate culture powder was significantly increased (P<0.01). Except the high-dose group of raw poria cocos powder, the other poria cocos groups had higher gastric residual rate (P<0.05). Conclusion Poria cocos does not promote intestinal propulsion of mice under normal physiological condition, but it can inhibit gastric empting and exert a moderating effect on gastrointestinal function in normal mice.


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