1.Adolescent Smoking Addiction Diagnosis Based on TI-GNN
Xu-Wen WANG ; Da-Hua YU ; Ting XUE ; Xiao-Jiao LI ; Zhen-Zhen MAI ; Fang DONG ; Yu-Xin MA ; Juan WANG ; Kai YUAN
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2025;52(9):2393-2405
ObjectiveTobacco-related diseases remain one of the leading preventable public health challenges worldwide and are among the primary causes of premature death. In recent years, accumulating evidence has supported the classification of nicotine addiction as a chronic brain disease, profoundly affecting both brain structure and function. Despite the urgency, effective diagnostic methods for smoking addiction remain lacking, posing significant challenges for early intervention and treatment. To address this issue and gain deeper insights into the neural mechanisms underlying nicotine dependence, this study proposes a novel graph neural network framework, termed TI-GNN. This model leverages functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data to identify complex and subtle abnormalities in brain connectivity patterns associated with smoking addiction. MethodsThe study utilizes fMRI data to construct functional connectivity matrices that represent interaction patterns among brain regions. These matrices are interpreted as graphs, where brain regions are nodes and the strength of functional connectivity between them serves as edges. The proposed TI-GNN model integrates a Transformer module to effectively capture global interactions across the entire brain network, enabling a comprehensive understanding of high-level connectivity patterns. Additionally, a spatial attention mechanism is employed to selectively focus on informative inter-regional connections while filtering out irrelevant or noisy features. This design enhances the model’s ability to learn meaningful neural representations crucial for classification tasks. A key innovation of TI-GNN lies in its built-in causal interpretation module, which aims to infer directional and potentially causal relationships among brain regions. This not only improves predictive performance but also enhances model interpretability—an essential attribute for clinical applications. The identification of causal links provides valuable insights into the neuropathological basis of addiction and contributes to the development of biologically plausible and trustworthy diagnostic tools. ResultsExperimental results demonstrate that the TI-GNN model achieves superior classification performance on the smoking addiction dataset, outperforming several state-of-the-art baseline models. Specifically, TI-GNN attains an accuracy of 0.91, an F1-score of 0.91, and a Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) of 0.83, indicating strong robustness and reliability. Beyond performance metrics, TI-GNN identifies critical abnormal connectivity patterns in several brain regions implicated in addiction. Notably, it highlights dysregulations in the amygdala and the anterior cingulate cortex, consistent with prior clinical and neuroimaging findings. These regions are well known for their roles in emotional regulation, reward processing, and impulse control—functions that are frequently disrupted in nicotine dependence. ConclusionThe TI-GNN framework offers a powerful and interpretable tool for the objective diagnosis of smoking addiction. By integrating advanced graph learning techniques with causal inference capabilities, the model not only achieves high diagnostic accuracy but also elucidates the neurobiological underpinnings of addiction. The identification of specific abnormal brain networks and their causal interactions deepens our understanding of addiction pathophysiology and lays the groundwork for developing targeted intervention strategies and personalized treatment approaches in the future.
2.Study on the Effect of Liuwei Dihuang Pills on Regulating the Antigen Cross-Presenting Ability of Dendritic Cells by Interfering with Gap Junctional Communication Function
Yue SONG ; Man-Si XU ; Xue-Ying ZHONG ; Wen-Jing ZHANG ; Xiao-Yi CHEN ; Biao-Yan DU ; Jian-Yong XIAO ; Kun WANG
Journal of Guangzhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2024;41(1):169-177
Objective To investigate whether Liuwei Dihuang Pills enhances the antigen cross-presenting ability of dendritic cell(DC)by increasing gap junctional intercellular communication(GJIC),and to explore the mechanisms involved.Methods Western Blot and immunofluorescence were used to observe the effects of Liuwei Dihuang Pills-containing serum on the expression and membrane localisation of gap junction protein connexin43(Cx43)in mouse melanoma cells(B16);Calcein-AM/DiI fluorescence tracer assay was used to observe the effects of Liuwei Dihuang Pills-containing serum on the function of GJIC in B16 cells;flow cytometry was used to observe the role of GJIC in the enhancement of DC antigen presenting ability by Liuwei Dihuang Pills-containing serum;and propidium iodide(PI)/Hoechst staining assay was used to observe the immunocidal effect of CD8+ T-lymphocytes.Results Western Blot and immunofluorescence experiments showed that Liuwei Dihuang Pills-containing serum led to the up-regulation of Cx43 expression;fluorescence tracer experiments proved that the GJIC function of B16 cells was significantly enhanced by Liuwei Dihuang Pills-containing serum;flow cytometry analyses showed that the DC antigen-presenting ability was enhanced by Liuwei Dihuang Pills-containing serum;and the results of PI/Hoechst staining showed that the immuno-killing effect of CD8+T-cells was more significant after the intervention of Liuwei Dihuang Pills-containing serum in B16-OVA.Conclusion Liuwei Dihuang Pills improve the GJIC function by up-regulating the Cx43 expression of melanoma cells,and then enhance the cross-presenting ability of DCs thus activating stronger CD8+ T-cell immunocidal responses.
3. Analysis of cerebral gray matter structure in multiple sclerosis and neuromyelitis optica
Xiao-Li LIU ; Ai-Xue WU ; Ru-Hua LI ; An-Ting WU ; Cheng-Chun CHEN ; Lin XU ; Cai-Yun WEN ; Dai-Qian CHEN
Acta Anatomica Sinica 2024;55(1):17-24
Objective The volume and cortical thickness of gray matter in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) and neuromyelitis optica (NMO) were compared and analyzed by voxel⁃based morphometry (VBM) and surface⁃based morphometry (SBM), and the differences in the structural changes of gray matter in the two diseases were discussed. Methods A total of 21 MS patients, 16 NMO patients and 19 healthy controls were scanned by routine MRI sequence. The data were processed and analyzed by VBM and SBM method based on the statistical parameter tool SPM12 of Matlab2014a platform and the small tool CAT12 under SPM12. Results Compared with the normal control group (NC), after Gaussian random field (GRF) correction, the gray matter volume in MS group was significantly reduced in left superior occipital, left cuneus, left calcarine, left precuneus, left postcentral, left central paracentral lobule, right cuneus, left middle frontal, left superior frontal and left superior medial frontal (P<0. 05). After family wise error (FWE) correction, the thickness of left paracentral, left superiorfrontal and left precuneus cortex in MS group was significantly reduced (P<0. 05). Compared with the NC group, after GRF correction, the gray matter volume in the left postcentral, left precentral, left inferior parietal, right precentral and right middle frontal in NMO group was significantly increased (P<0. 05). In NMO group, the volume of gray matter in left middle occipital, left superior occipital, left inferior temporal, right middle occipital, left superior frontal orbital, right middle cingulum, left anterior cingulum, right angular and left precuneus were significantly decreased (P<0. 05). Brain regions showed no significant differences in cortical thickness between NMO groups after FWE correction. Compared with the NMO group, after GRF correction, the gray matter volume in the right fusiform and right middle frontal in MS group was increased significantly(P<0. 05). In MS group, the gray matter volume of left thalamus, left pallidum, left precentral, left middle frontal, left middle temporal, right pallidum, left inferior parietal and right superior parietal were significantly decreased (P<0. 05). After FWE correction, the thickness of left inferiorparietal, left superiorparietal, left supramarginal, left paracentral, left superiorfrontal and left precuneus cortex in MS group decreased significantly (P<0. 05). Conclusion The atrophy of brain gray matter structure in MS patients mainly involves the left parietal region, while NMO patients are not sensitive to the change of brain gray matter structure. The significant difference in brain gray matter volume between MS patients and NMO patients is mainly located in the deep cerebral nucleus mass.
4.Study on therapeutic material basis and mechanism of Ganke Formula based on UPLC-Q-TOF/MS
Xue ZHANG ; Qaing-Hua YUAN ; Cheng-Shi HE ; Na XU ; Xiao-Rui CHEN ; Min ZHANG
The Chinese Journal of Clinical Pharmacology 2024;40(3):413-418
Objective To explore the therapeutic material basis and antitussive mechanism of Ganke Formula.Methods Ultra-high performance liquid chromatography-quadrupole-time of flight mass spectrometry(UPLC-Q-TOF/MS)technology was used to analyze and identify the components of Ganke Formula in serum.30 rats were randomly divided into control group,model group,experimental-L group,experimental-M group and experimental-H group,6 rats per group.Acute bronchitis rat model was established by smoke inhalation and cold stimulus.The experimental-L,-M,-H groups were respectively given 1.86,4.66,9.32 g·kg-1(crude drug/weight)dose of Ganke Formula per day by intragastric administration for 7 days.The control group and model group were given the equal amount of normal saline.The contents of interleukin-1β(IL-1β)and tumor necrosis factor-α(TNF-α)in rat lung tissue were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay.The expressions of phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase(PI3K)and phosphorylated protein kinase B(p-Akt)in lung were detected by Western blotting.Results Twenty-six absorbed components have been identified by UPLC-Q-TOF/MS.The contents of IL-1β in control group,model group,experimental-M,-H group were(57.80±7.67),(186.48±8.50),(166.05±9.90)and(143.19±6.31)pg·mL-1;TNF-α contents were(47.14±8.55),(316.22±9.49),(68.93±7.94)and(65.93±7.10)pg·mL-1;the relative expression levels of PI3K in lung tissues were 0.38±0.05,0.97±0.10,0.68±0.15 and 0.56±0.10;the relative expression levels of p-Akt were 0.34±0.14,0.93±0.05,0.63±0.16 and 0.49±0.14,respectively.Compared with the model group,the above indicators in the experimental-H group and control group were statistically different(P<0.01 or P<0.05).Conclusion Ganke Formula can intervene in the expression of inflammatory and immune regulatory factors by regulating PI3K/Akt signaling pathway,improve airway inflammation,and thus exert cough relieving effects.
5.Resveratrol alleviates the immune response and proliferation of macrophages induced by homocysteine
Xue-Sen ZHANG ; Kai-Yue QIN ; Xiao-Han LI ; Yan-Jia WANG ; Xi XU ; Xiao-Ling YANG
The Chinese Journal of Clinical Pharmacology 2024;40(14):2038-2042
Objective To explore the role of resveratrol in the immune response and proliferation of macrophages induced by homocysteine(Hcy).Methods ANA-1 cells were divided into control group(conventional culture),model group(100 μmol·L-1 Hcy),experimental-L,-M,-H groups(adding 25,50 and 100 μmol·L-1 resveratrol to model group,respectively),Hcy+Ad-SIRT1 group(100 μmol·L-1 Hcy+Ad-SIRT1),Hcy+si-FOXO1 group(100 μmol·L-1 Hcy+si-FOXO1),Hcy+Res-L+Ad-SIRT1+si-FOXO1 group(100 μmol·L-1 Hcy+25 μmol·L-1 Resveratrol transfected with Ad-SIRT1+si-FOXO1).The cell proliferation was detected by methyl thiazolyl tetrazolium(MTT),and the concentration of interleukin-6(IL-6)and tumor necrosis factor-α(TNF-α)in the supernatant of cell culture medium was detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay.The gene and protein expression of silencing information regulator 1(SIRT1)and forkhead protein 01(FOXO1)were detected by Western blot.Results The optical density of 450 nm in control group,model group and experimental-L,-M,-H groups were 0.25±0.02,0.36±0.02,0.33±0.01,0.30±0.02 and 0.29±0.01,respectively.Compared with the control group,the cell proliferation in the model group was significantly increased(P<0.05).Cell proliferation in experimental-L,-M,-H groups was significantly decreased compared with model group(all P<0.05).IL-6 in the supernatant of cell culture medium of control group,model group and experimental-L group were(394.04±20.06),(614.23±21.09)and(501.53±16.52)pg·mL-1,respectively;TNF-α were(516.54±18.96),(717.22±24.81)and(632.74±19.11)pg·mL-1,respectively;SIRT1 relative protein expression were(1.00±0.05),(0.57±0.05)and(0.77±0.04),respectively;the relative protein expression of FOXO1 were 1.00±0.05,2.31±0.18 and 1.58±0.11,respectively.Compared with the control group,the above indexes in the experimental-L group had statistical significance(all P<0.05).The contents of IL-6 and TNF-α in cell culture fluid supernatant in model group,experimental-L group,Hcy+Ad-SIRT1 group and Hcy+si-FOXO1 group were significantly lower than those in model group,with statistical significance(all P<0.05).After co-transfection with Ad-SIRT1 and si-FOXO1,the contents of IL-6 and TNF-α in cell culture medium superserum of experimental-L group were significantly lower than those of Ad-SIRT1 group and si-FOXO1 group(all P<0.05).Conclusion Resveratrol can attenuate the immune response and proliferation of macrophages induced by Hcy,which may be related to the alteration of SIRT1/FOXO1 pathway.
6.Improving effects of Hedysarum polysaccharide on renal injury in db/db mice with diabetic nephropathy
Yan-Xu CHEN ; Lei ZHANG ; Zhi-Sheng JIN ; Xiao-Xue JIANG ; Qin-Yuan ZHANG ; Peng-Cheng DOU ; Yuan-Yuan NIU ; Juan-Juan YANG
The Chinese Journal of Clinical Pharmacology 2024;40(14):2078-2082
Objective To study the effect of Hedysarum polysaccharides(HPS)on the expression of transforming growth factor-β,(TGF-β1),smad homologue 3 recombinant protein(smad3)and smad7 in renal tissue of db/db mice with diabetic nephropathy(DN).Methods According to their body weight,6-week-old male db/db mice were randomly divided into 5 groups:model group(0.9%NaCl 0.2 mL·d-1),positive control group(22.75 mg·kg-1·d-1 irbesartan)and experimental-H,-M,-L groups(200,100,50 mg kg-1·d-1 HPS),with 10 mice in each group;another 10 SPF grade male C57BL/6 mice of the same week were selected as normal group(0.9%NaCl 0.2mL·d-1).The mice in the 6 groups were given intragastric administration once a day for 12 weeks.The blood glucose concentration of mice was measured before treatment and at the 4th,8th and 12th week after treatment.The expression levels of TGF-β1,smad3 and smad7 were detected by Western blotting.Results After treatment,the blood glucose levels of the model group was significantly higher than those of the normal group(all P<0.01);compared with the model group,the levels of blood glucose in the experimental-H,-M groups decreased significantly,and the differences were statistically significant(P<0.05,P<0.01).The relative expression levels of TGF-β,protein in normal group,model group,positive control group and experimental-H,-M groups were 0.71±0.16,1.66±0.18,1.00±0.17,0.88±0.15 and 1.23±0.15;the relative expression levels of smad3 protein were 0.89±0.32,2.26±0.35,1.24±0.31,1.05±0.30 and 1.67±0.35;the relative expression levels of smad7 protein were 1.66±0.03,0.60±0.03,1.10±0.07,1.48±0.08 and 0.97±0.09;there were statistically significant differences between the experimental-H,-M groups and the model group(P<0.05,P<0.01).Conclusion Hedysarum polysaccharides can improve renal fibrosis and delay the development of diabetic nephropathy by regulating the level of blood glucose,inhibiting TGF-β1,smad3 and increasing the expression of smad7.
7.Association of Cytokines with Clinical Indicators in Patients with Drug-Induced Liver Injury
Hua Wei CAO ; Ting Ting JIANG ; Ge SHEN ; Wen DENG ; Yu Shi WANG ; Yu Zi ZHANG ; Xin Xin LI ; Yao LU ; Lu ZHANG ; Yu Ru LIU ; Min CHANG ; Ling Shu WU ; Jiao Yuan GAO ; Xiao Hong HAO ; Xue Xiao CHEN ; Ping Lei HU ; Jiao Meng XU ; Wei YI ; Yao XIE ; Hui Ming LI
Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2024;37(5):494-502
Objective To explore characteristics of clinical parameters and cytokines in patients with drug-induced liver injury(DILI)caused by different drugs and their correlation with clinical indicators. Method The study was conducted on patients who were up to Review of Uncertainties in Confidence Assessment for Medical Tests(RUCAM)scoring criteria and clinically diagnosed with DILI.Based on Chinese herbal medicine,cardiovascular drugs,non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs(NSAIDs),anti-infective drugs,and other drugs,patients were divided into five groups.Cytokines were measured by Luminex technology.Baseline characteristics of clinical biochemical indicators and cytokines in DILI patients and their correlation were analyzed. Results 73 patients were enrolled.Age among five groups was statistically different(P=0.032).Alanine aminotransferase(ALT)(P=0.033)and aspartate aminotransferase(AST)(P=0.007)in NSAIDs group were higher than those in chinese herbal medicine group.Interleukin-6(IL-6)and tumor necrosis factor alpha(TNF-α)in patients with Chinese herbal medicine(IL-6:P<0.001;TNF-α:P<0.001)and cardiovascular medicine(IL-6:P=0.020;TNF-α:P=0.001)were lower than those in NSAIDs group.There was a positive correlation between ALT(r=0.697,P=0.025),AST(r=0.721,P=0.019),and IL-6 in NSAIDs group. Conclusion Older age may be more prone to DILI.Patients with NSAIDs have more severe liver damage in early stages of DILI,TNF-α and IL-6 may partake the inflammatory process of DILI.
8.Effect of Sargassum and Glycyrrhizae Radix et Rhizoma Incompatible Pair with Haizao Yuhutang on Oxidative Stress in Liver of Goiter Rats
Xiao DONG ; Yi TIAN ; Xiaoqing LIU ; Can CAO ; Wenyong LIAO ; Xiangnan XU ; Meijing WU ; Haiyan LIU ; Shaohong CHEN ; Xue YU ; Angran FAN ; Linlin XIU ; Gansheng ZHONG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2024;30(14):37-45
ObjectiveTo observe the effects of Sargassum and Glycyrrhizae Radix et Rhizoma incompatible pair with the Haizao Yuhutang (HYT) on oxidative stress in the liver of goiter rats under the condition of 2 times the dose limit of the Pharmacopoeia of the People's Republic of China 2020. MethodA total of 128 male Wistar rats were randomly divided into a blank group, a model group, a euthyrox group (20 μg·kg-1), a HYT group (12.06 g·kg-1), a HYT without Sargassum (HYT-H) group (9.90 g·kg-1), a HYT without Glycyrrhizae Radix et Rhizoma (HYT-G) group (10.26 g·kg-1), a HYT without Sargassum and Glycyrrhizae Radix et Rhizoma (HYT-HG) group (8.10 g·kg-1), and a Sargassum and Glycyrrhizae Radix et Rhizoma (HG) group (3.96 g·kg-1). The blank group was given deionized water by gavage, and the others were given propylthiouracil (PTU) to replicate the goiter pathological model. Euthyrox was taken as a positive control drug, and the rest of the Chinese medicine groups were given the corresponding decoction by gavage, the material was collected 12 hours after the last dose. The serum levels of aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), and the contents of superoxide dismutase (SOD), glutathione peroxidase (GSH-Px), malondialdehyde (MDA), reactive oxygen species (ROS) in liver tissue were detected in each group. The pathological changes in the liver were observed via hematoxylin-eosin (HE) staining. Real-time fluorescence quantitative polymerase chain reaction (Real-time PCR) was utilized to detect the mRNA expressions of Kelch-like Ech-associated protein 1 (Keap1), nuclear factor E2-related factor 2 (Nrf2), heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1), p53 and Caspase-3 in liver tissues. Western blot was adopted to detect the protein expressions of Nrf2 and HO-1 in liver tissues in oxidative stress-related signaling pathways. ResultCompared with control group, the model group showed significantly increased serum ALT level and contents of MDA and ROS in liver tissues (P<0.05, P<0.01), significantly reduced activities of SOD and GSH-Px in the liver (P<0.01), significantly increased mRNA expression of Keap1 (P<0.01), and significantly decreased mRNA and protein expressions of Nrf2 and HO-1 (P<0.05, P<0.01). Compared with the model group, the HYT group manifested significantly reduced serum levels of AST, ALT, and ALP (P<0.05, P<0.01), significantly reduced contents of MDA and ROS in liver tissue (P<0.01), significantly increased the activities of SOD and GSH-Px (P<0.01), significantly decreased mRNA expressions of Keap1, p53, and Caspase-3 (P<0.01), and significantly increased mRNA and protein expressions of Nrf2 and HO-1 (P<0.05, P<0.01). ConclusionUnder the condition of 2 times the dose limit of the Pharmacopoeia of the People's Republic of China 2020, Sargassum and Glycyrrhizae Radix et Rhizoma incompatible pair with the HYT on oxidative stress in the liver of goiter rats had different effects. The HYT that contains Sargassum and Glycyrrhizae Radix et Rhizoma has a protective effect on the liver of goiter rats, and the effect is better than that of the HG group, the euthyrox group, and the incomplete groups. Its mechanism may be related to activating the Nrf2/HO-1 signaling pathway to alleviate liver oxidative stress and inhibiting the p53/Caspase-3 signaling pathway to reduce hepatocyte apoptosis.
9.Correlation between Combined Urinary Metal Exposure and Grip Strength under Three Statistical Models: A Cross-sectional Study in Rural Guangxi
Jian Yu LIANG ; Hui Jia RONG ; Xiu Xue WANG ; Sheng Jian CAI ; Dong Li QIN ; Mei Qiu LIU ; Xu TANG ; Ting Xiao MO ; Fei Yan WEI ; Xia Yin LIN ; Xiang Shen HUANG ; Yu Ting LUO ; Yu Ruo GOU ; Jing Jie CAO ; Wu Chu HUANG ; Fu Yu LU ; Jian QIN ; Yong Zhi ZHANG
Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2024;37(1):3-18
Objective This study aimed to investigate the potential relationship between urinary metals copper (Cu), arsenic (As), strontium (Sr), barium (Ba), iron (Fe), lead (Pb) and manganese (Mn) and grip strength. Methods We used linear regression models, quantile g-computation and Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) to assess the relationship between metals and grip strength.Results In the multimetal linear regression, Cu (β=-2.119), As (β=-1.318), Sr (β=-2.480), Ba (β=0.781), Fe (β= 1.130) and Mn (β=-0.404) were significantly correlated with grip strength (P < 0.05). The results of the quantile g-computation showed that the risk of occurrence of grip strength reduction was -1.007 (95% confidence interval:-1.362, -0.652; P < 0.001) when each quartile of the mixture of the seven metals was increased. Bayesian kernel function regression model analysis showed that mixtures of the seven metals had a negative overall effect on grip strength, with Cu, As and Sr being negatively associated with grip strength levels. In the total population, potential interactions were observed between As and Mn and between Cu and Mn (Pinteractions of 0.003 and 0.018, respectively).Conclusion In summary, this study suggests that combined exposure to metal mixtures is negatively associated with grip strength. Cu, Sr and As were negatively correlated with grip strength levels, and there were potential interactions between As and Mn and between Cu and Mn.
10.Establishment and validation of a predictive model for the progression of pancreatic cystic lesions based on clinical and CT radiological features
Wenyi DENG ; Feiyang XIE ; Li MAO ; Xiuli LI ; Zhaoyong SUN ; Kai XU ; Liang ZHU ; Zhengyu JIN ; Xiao LI ; Huadan XUE
Chinese Journal of Pancreatology 2024;24(1):23-28
Objective:To construct a machine-learning model for predicting the progression of pancreatic cystic lesions (PCLs) based on clinical and CT features, and to evaluate its predictive performance in internal/external testing cohorts.Methods:Baseline clinical and radiological data of 200 PCLs in 177 patients undergoing abdominal thin slice enhanced CT examination at Peking Union Medical College Hospital from July 2014 to December 2022 were retrospectively collected. PCLs were divided into progressive and non-progressive groups according to whether the signs indicated for surgery by the guidelines of the European study group on PCLs were present during three-year follow-up. 200 PCLs were randomly divided into training (150 PCLs) and internal testing cohorts (50 PCLs) at the ratio of 1∶3. 15 PCLs in 14 patients at Jinling Affiliated Hospital of Medical School of Nanjing University from October 2011 to May 2020 were enrolled as external testing cohort. The clinical and CT radiological features were recorded. Multiple feature selection methods and machine-learning models were implemented and combined to identify the optimal machine-learning model based on the 10-fold cross-validation method. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was drawn and area under curve (AUC) was calculated. The model with the highest AUC was determined as the optimal model. The optimal model's predictive performance was evaluated on testing cohort by calculating AUC, sensitivity, specificity and accuracy. Permutation importance was used to assess the importance of optimal model features. Calibration curves of the optimal model were established to evaluate the model's clinical applicability by Hosmer-Lemeshow test.Results:In training and internal testing cohorts, the progressive and non-progressive groups were significantly different on history of pancreatitis, lesions size, main pancreatic duct diameter and dilation, thick cyst wall, presence of septation and thick septation (all P value <0.05) In internal testing cohort, the two groups were significantly different on gender, lesion calcification and pancreatic atrophy (all P value <0.05). In external testing cohort, the two groups were significantly different on lesions size and pancreatic duct dilation (both P<0.05). The support vector machine (SVM) model based on five features selected by F test (lesion size, thick cyst wall, history of pancreatitis, main pancreatic duct diameter and dilation) achieved the highest AUC of 0.899 during cross-validation. SVM model for predicting the progression of PCLs demonstrated an AUC of 0.909, sensitivity of 82.4%, specificity of 72.7%, and accuracy of 76.0% in the internal testing cohort, and 0.944, 100%, 77.8%, and 86.7% in the external testing cohort. Calibration curved showed that the predicted probability by the model was comparable to the real progression of PCLs. Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test affirmed the model's consistency with actual PCLs progression in testing cohorts. Conclusions:The SVM model based on clinical and CT features can help doctors predict the PCLs progression within three-year follow-up, thus achieving efficient patient management and rational allocation of medical resource.

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