3.Development and validation of a prognostic prediction model for patients with stage Ⅰ to Ⅲ colon cancer incorporating high-risk pathological features.
K X LI ; Q B WU ; F Q ZHAO ; J L ZHANG ; S L LUO ; S D HU ; B WU ; H L LI ; G L LIN ; H Z QIU ; J Y LU ; L XU ; Z WANG ; X H DU ; L KANG ; X WANG ; Z Q WANG ; Q LIU ; Y XIAO
Chinese Journal of Surgery 2023;61(9):753-759
Objective: To examine a predictive model that incorporating high risk pathological factors for the prognosis of stage Ⅰ to Ⅲ colon cancer. Methods: This study retrospectively collected clinicopathological information and survival outcomes of stage Ⅰ~Ⅲ colon cancer patients who underwent curative surgery in 7 tertiary hospitals in China from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2017. A total of 1 650 patients were enrolled, aged (M(IQR)) 62 (18) years (range: 14 to 100). There were 963 males and 687 females. The median follow-up period was 51 months. The Cox proportional hazardous regression model was utilized to select high-risk pathological factors, establish the nomogram and scoring system. The Bootstrap resampling method was utilized for internal validation of the model, the concordance index (C-index) was used to assess discrimination and calibration curves were presented to assess model calibration. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to plot survival curves after risk grouping, and Cox regression was used to compare disease-free survival between subgroups. Results: Age (HR=1.020, 95%CI: 1.008 to 1.033, P=0.001), T stage (T3:HR=1.995,95%CI:1.062 to 3.750,P=0.032;T4:HR=4.196, 95%CI: 2.188 to 8.045, P<0.01), N stage (N1: HR=1.834, 95%CI: 1.307 to 2.574, P<0.01; N2: HR=3.970, 95%CI: 2.724 to 5.787, P<0.01) and number of lymph nodes examined (≥36: HR=0.438, 95%CI: 0.242 to 0.790, P=0.006) were independently associated with disease-free survival. The C-index of the scoring model (model 1) based on age, T stage, N stage, and dichotomous variables of the lymph nodes examined (<12 and ≥12) was 0.723, and the C-index of the scoring model (model 2) based on age, T stage, N stage, and multi-categorical variables of the lymph nodes examined (<12, 12 to <24, 24 to <36, and ≥36) was 0.726. A scoring system was established based on age, T stage, N stage, and multi-categorical variables of lymph nodes examined, the 3-year DFS of the low-risk (≤1), middle-risk (2 to 4) and high-risk (≥5) group were 96.3% (n=711), 89.0% (n=626) and 71.4% (n=313), respectively. Statistically significant difference was observed among groups (P<0.01). Conclusions: The number of lymph nodes examined was an independent prognostic factor for disease-free survival after curative surgery in patients with stage Ⅰ to Ⅲ colon cancer. Incorporating the number of lymph nodes examined as a multi-categorical variable into the T and N staging system could improve prognostic predictive validity.
Male
;
Female
;
Humans
;
Prognosis
;
Neoplasm Staging
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Nomograms
;
Lymph Nodes/pathology*
;
Risk Factors
;
Colonic Neoplasms/surgery*
4.Cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening worldwide: a systematic review.
C C LIU ; J F SHI ; G X LIU ; W TANG ; X ZHANG ; F LI ; L WANG ; Y MA ; K SU ; S J ZHAO ; Y B GAO ; N LI ; W Q CHEN ; N WU ; M DAI
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2019;40(2):218-226
Objective: From the economic point of view, this study was to systematically assess the status quo on lung cancer screening in the world and to provide reference for further research and implementation of the programs, in China. Methods: PubMed, EMbase, The Cochrane Library,CNKI and Wanfang Data were searched to gather papers on studies related to economic evaluation regarding lung cancer screening worldwide, from the inception of studies to June 30(th), 2018. Basic characteristics, methods and main results were extracted. Quality of studies was assessed. Cost were converted to Chinese Yuan under the exchange rates from the World Bank. The ratio of incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) to local GDP per capita were calculated. Results: A total of 23 studies (only 1 randomized controlled trial) were included and the overall quality was accepted. 22 studies were from the developed countries. Nearly half of the studies (11 studies) took 55 years old as the starting age of the screening program. Smoking history was widely applied for the selection of criteria on target populations (18). Low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) was involved in every study used to evaluate the economic effectiveness. Annual (17) and once-life time (7) screening were more common frequencies. 22 studies reported ICERs for LDCT screening, compared to no screening, of which 17 were less than 3 times local GDP per capita, and were considered as cost-effectiveness, according to the WHO's recommendation. 15 and 7 studies reported ICERs for annual and once-life time screening, of which 12 and 7 studies were in favor the results of their cost-effectiveness, respectively. Additionally, the cost-effectiveness of once-lifetime screening was likely to be superior to the annual screening. Differences of cost-effectiveness among the subgroups, by starting age or by the smoking history, might exist. Conclusions: Based on the studies, evidence from the developed countries demonstrated that LDCT screening programs on lung cancer, implemented among populations selected by age and smoking history, generally appeared more cost-effective. Combined with the local situation of health resource, the findings could provide direction for less developed regions/countries lacking of local evidence. Low frequency of LDCT screening for lung cancer could be adopted when budget was limited. Data on starting ages, smoking history and other important components related to the strategy of screening programs, needs to be precisely evaluated under the situation of local population.
China
;
Cost-Benefit Analysis
;
Early Detection of Cancer/methods*
;
Humans
;
Lung Neoplasms/prevention & control*
;
Middle Aged
;
Quality-Adjusted Life Years
;
Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic
5.Progress in research of family-based cohort study on common chronic non-communicable diseases in rural population in northern China.
M Y WANG ; X TANG ; X Y QIN ; Y Q WU ; J LI ; P GAO ; S P HUANG ; N LI ; D L YANG ; T REN ; T WU ; D F CHEN ; Y H HU
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2018;39(1):94-97
Family-based cohort study is a special type of study design, in which biological samples and environmental exposure information of the member in a family are collected and related follow up is conducted. Family-based cohort study can be applied to explore the effect of genetic factors, environmental factors, gene-gene interaction, and gene-environment interaction in the etiology of complex diseases. This paper summarizes the objectives, methods and results, as well as the opportunities and challenges of the family-based cohort study on common chronic non-communicable diseases in rural population in northern China.
China/epidemiology*
;
Chronic Disease/ethnology*
;
Cohort Studies
;
Female
;
Gene-Environment Interaction
;
Humans
;
Male
;
Middle Aged
;
Noncommunicable Diseases/ethnology*
;
Research Design
;
Rural Population
6.Exposure to bisphenol A during maternal pregnancy and the emotional and behavioral impact on their preschool children.
X CHEN ; H H BAO ; W K WU ; S Q YAN ; J SHENG ; Y Y XU ; C L GU ; K HUANG ; H CAO ; P Y SU ; F B TAO ; J H HAO
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2018;39(2):188-193
Objective: To explore the long-term effects of maternal pregnancy bisphenol A (BPA) exposure on emotional and behavioral problems appeared in their preschool children. Methods: The study sample was a subset of the China-Anhui Birth Cohort Study (C-ABCS). A unified questionnaire was used to collect basic information on both pregnant women and their children. Free BPA concentration in maternal serum was determined by high-performance liquid chromatographytandem mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS/MS). The parent-report version of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) was used to estimate the emotional and behavioral problems in preschool children. A total of 1 713 pairs of mothers and children were included in this study. Association between BPA exposure during pregnancy and the emotional and behavioral problems in preschool children was evaluated with multinomial logistic regression model. Results: Prevalence rates in 1 713 preschool children appeared as: 6.48% of emotional problems, 8.11% for conduct problems, 8.35% for hyperactivity/inattention, 2.86% for peer problems, 11.38% for prosocial behaviors and 7.94% for total difficulties. Subjects were divided according to the degrees of exposure and the results showed as: low exposure group (≤0.120 ng/ml), medium exposure group (0.120
Benzhydryl Compounds/toxicity*
;
Child Behavior Disorders/etiology*
;
Child, Preschool
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Cohort Studies
;
Emotions/physiology*
;
Environmental Exposure
;
Environmental Pollutants
;
Female
;
Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry
;
Humans
;
Male
;
Maternal Exposure
;
Mothers
;
Phenols/toxicity*
;
Pregnancy
;
Prenatal Exposure Delayed Effects
;
Prevalence
;
Risk Factors
;
Surveys and Questionnaires
;
Tandem Mass Spectrometry
7.Willingness and influencing factors related to "centralized slaughtering, fresh poultry listing and marketing" strategy among the household chefs in Guangzhou.
W H LIU ; Y MA ; J Y LU ; H C YAN ; J H ZHOU ; X L LIAO ; J H ZENG ; W Q LIN ; D WU ; Z B ZHANG ; Z C YANG ; Z Q CHEN ; J D CHEN ; T G LI
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2018;39(2):204-207
Objective: To study the willingness and influence factors related to "centralized slaughtering, fresh poultry listing and marketing" strategy, among the household chefs, and provide reference for government to adjust and optimize the strategy on avian influenza prevention. Methods: According to the geographical characteristics and regional functions, 6 'monitoring stations' were selected from 12 residential districts of Guangzhou, respectively. Another 21 meat markets which selling live poultry, were selected in each station and 5 household chefs of each market were invited to attend a face to face interview. Basic information, personal cognitive, willingness and influencing factors to the policy were under study. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression methods were used. Results: A total of 664 household chefs underwent the survey and results showed that the rate of support to the "centralized slaughtering, fresh poultry listing and marketing" strategy was 44.6% (296/664). Results from the multi-factor logistic regression showed that those household chefs who were males (OR=1.618, 95% CI: 1.156-2.264, P=0.005), having received higher education (OR=1.814, 95% CI: 1.296-2.539, P=0.001), or believing that the existence of live poultry stalls was related to the transmission of avian influenza (OR=1.918, 95% CI: 1.341-2.743, P<0.001) were factors at higher risk. These household chefs also intended to avoid the use of live poultry stalls (OR=1.666, 95%CI: 1.203-2.309, P=0.002) and accept the "centralized slaughtering, fresh poultry listing and marketing" strategy. Conclusion: Detailed study on this subject and, setting up pilot project in some areas as well as prioritizing the education programs for household chefs seemed helpful to the implementation of the 'freezing-fresh poultry' policy.
Animals
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Attitude to Health
;
China
;
Humans
;
Influenza A Virus, H7N9 Subtype
;
Influenza in Birds
;
Influenza, Human/prevention & control*
;
Male
;
Marketing
;
Meat-Packing Industry
;
Multivariate Analysis
;
Pilot Projects
;
Poultry/virology*
;
Surveys and Questionnaires
8.Incidence of fall related injury in people aged 50 and above and risk factors in 8 provinces in China: a cross-sectional study.
Y F GUO ; W J MA ; Q J ZHANG ; M YU ; Y Z XIAO ; X L GUO ; Y L ZHU ; F LIU ; Y RUAN ; S Y SUN ; Z Z HUANG ; Y ZHENG ; F WU
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2018;39(3):258-263
Objective: To estimate the incidence and distribution characteristics of fall related injury in people aged ≥50 years in 8 provinces in China and related physiological, psychological and social risk factors. Methods: Cross-sectional data were collected from adults aged ≥50 years participating in the World Health Organization (WHO) study on global ageing and adult health (SAGE) round 1 in China. Two-level hierarchical logistic model was used to identify the related factors for fall-related injury. All the models were stratified by living area (urban/rural). Results: Estimated incidence of fall related injury (road traffic injury was not included) was 3.2%. Ageing and multiple chronic conditions (OR=2.55, 95%CI: 1.41-4.64) was significantly associated with the incidence of fall related injury in urban area. In rural area, depression (OR=4.33, 95% CI: 2.52-7.42) and multiple chronic conditions (OR=2.46, 95%CI: 1.37-4.41) were associated with the incidence of fall related injury. Conclusions: This study estimated the incidence of fall related injury in adults aged ≥50 years in 8 provinces in China. A significant association between multiple chronic conditions and fall related injury were found in both urban and rural residents. Targeted measures should be taken for the prevention and control of chronic diseases in elderly population.
Accidental Falls/statistics & numerical data*
;
Aged
;
China
;
Chronic Disease/epidemiology*
;
Cross-Sectional Studies
;
Depression/epidemiology*
;
Humans
;
Incidence
;
Logistic Models
;
Middle Aged
;
Risk Factors
;
Rural Population
;
Wounds and Injuries/etiology*
9.Epidemiological characteristics of Coxsackie virus A16 caused hand foot and mouth disease cases in Guangdong province, 2012-2016.
L M SUN ; S L WU ; X H TAN ; H LI ; F YANG ; H R ZENG ; H Y ZHENG ; L LIU ; J F HE
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2018;39(3):342-346
Objective: To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) cases caused by Coxsackie virus A16 (Cox A16) in Guangdong province from 2012 to 2016. Methods: The data of mild HFMD cases caused by Cox A16 were collected from 8 sentinel hospitals in 8 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong to estimate Cox A16 infection status and its population and time distribution characteristics. Results: (1) The highest estimated incidence of Cox A16 infection was in 2014 (113.0/100 000), followed by 2016 (86.4/100 000) and 2012 (79.1/100 000), while the estimated incidence was lower in 2015 (29.0/100 000) and 2013 (28.8/100 000). (2) Cox A16 was confirmed to be the predominant pathogen causing HFMD outbreaks (54.6%, 89/163). The number of outbreaks in the year with high incidence (28 outbreaks) was 11.2 times higher than that in the year with low incidence (2.5 outbreaks). (3) Across all age groups, the annual estimated incidence of Cox A16 infection decreased with age (trend χ(2)=853 905.63, P<0.01). The incidence was highest in age group 1 year (1 449.2/100 000), followed by that in age group 3 years (1 097.0/100 000), in age group 2 years (1 083.5/100 000), in age group 4 years (687.8/100 000) and in age group 0 year (604.9/100 000). Among the age groups <12 months, the estimated incidence increased with age (trend χ(2)=5 541.77, P<0.01), which was highest in age group 11-months (2 105.1/100 000), followed by that in age groups 10-months (1 448.6/100 000), 9-months (938.3/100 000), 8-months (703.3/100 000) and 6-months (664.6/100 000). (4) The annual incidence peak was during May (143.9/100 000)-June (131.5/100 000). Conclusion: The prevalence of Cox A16 infection differed with year in Guangdong during 2012-2016. When the incidence of Cox A16 infection was high, more outbreaks occurred. The prevalence occurred mainly in nurseries and kindergartens from May to June each year. Children aged 0-4 years were the high risk group for Cox A16 infection, children aged 6-11 months were at high risk for Cox A16 infection.
Animals
;
Child
;
Child, Preschool
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Cities
;
Coxsackievirus Infections/epidemiology*
;
Disease Outbreaks
;
Enterovirus A, Human/isolation & purification*
;
Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease/epidemiology*
;
Hospitals
;
Humans
;
Incidence
;
Infant
;
Schools
10.Levels of calcaneus bone mineral density in adults from 10 regions of China.
Y J QIAO ; X LI ; M WU ; C Q YU ; Y GUO ; Z BIAN ; Y L TAN ; P PEI ; J S CHEN ; Z M CHEN ; J LYU ; L M LI
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2018;39(4):422-427
Objective: To describe the regional and population-related differences in calcaneus bone mineral density (BMD) across ten regions of China. Methods: Based on the results: from the second Re-survey of China Kadoorie Biobank project, in which 5% of the surviving participants were interviewed during 2013-2014 and 24 677 participants aged 38-87 years were included in the study. We excluded those people with missing data for BMD and important variables. Calcaneus BMD was measured using the quantitative ultrasound bone densitometer. We analyzed four indexes, including broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA), speed of sound (SOS), stiffness index (SI), and T score. Results The average calcaneus BMDs of the present population were: BUA (109.7±12.6) dB/MHz, SOS (1 554.7±45.6) m/s, SI (88.3±18.8), T score (-0.74±1.28). Urban residents showed higher calcaneus BMD, so as in men. The calcaneus BMD decreased by age, with a larger decline seen in women. Current smokers and postmenopausal women presented lower calcaneus BMD, while in those who frequently drank milk or yogurt or being physically more active, had higher calcaneus BMD. Conclusion: Calcaneus BMD varied greatly among people from the ten regions of CKB study and among participants having different demographic characteristics, lifestyle behaviors or health conditions.
Absorptiometry, Photon/methods*
;
Adult
;
Age Factors
;
Aged
;
Aged, 80 and over
;
Bone Density/physiology*
;
Calcaneus/diagnostic imaging*
;
China
;
Female
;
Humans
;
Male
;
Middle Aged
;
Residence Characteristics
;
Rural Population
;
Sex Factors
;
Ultrasonography
;
Urban Population

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