1.Impact of Donor Age on Liver Transplant Outcomes in Patients with Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure: A Cohort Study
Jie ZHOU ; Danni YE ; Shenli REN ; Jiawei DING ; Tao ZHANG ; Siyao ZHANG ; Zheng CHEN ; Fangshen XU ; Yu ZHANG ; Huilin ZHENG ; Zhenhua HU
Gut and Liver 2025;19(3):398-409
Background/Aims:
Liver transplantation is the most effective treatment for the sickest patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). However, the influence of donor age on liver transplantation, especially in ACLF patients, is still unclear.
Methods:
In this study, we used the data of the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients. We included patients with ACLF who received liver transplantation from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2017, and the total number was 13,857. We allocated the ACLF recipients by age intogroup I (donor age ≤17 years, n=647); group II (donor age 18–59 years, n=11,423); and group III (donor age ≥60 years, n=1,787). Overall survival (OS), graft survival, and mortality were com-pared among the three age groups and the four ACLF grades. Cox regression was also analyzed.
Results:
The 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates were 89.6%, 85.5%, and 82.0% in group I; 89.4%, 83.4%, and 78.2% in group II; and 86.8%, 78.4%, and 71.4% in group III, respectively (p<0.001).When we analyzed the different effects of donor age on OS with different ACLF grades, in groupsII and III, we observed statistical differences. Finally, the cubic spline curve told us that the relative death rate changed linearly with increasing donor age.
Conclusions
Donor age is related to OS and graft survival of ACLF patients after transplanta-tion, and poorer results were associated with elderly donors. In addition, different donor ages have different effects on recipients with different ACLF grades.
2.Impact of Donor Age on Liver Transplant Outcomes in Patients with Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure: A Cohort Study
Jie ZHOU ; Danni YE ; Shenli REN ; Jiawei DING ; Tao ZHANG ; Siyao ZHANG ; Zheng CHEN ; Fangshen XU ; Yu ZHANG ; Huilin ZHENG ; Zhenhua HU
Gut and Liver 2025;19(3):398-409
Background/Aims:
Liver transplantation is the most effective treatment for the sickest patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). However, the influence of donor age on liver transplantation, especially in ACLF patients, is still unclear.
Methods:
In this study, we used the data of the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients. We included patients with ACLF who received liver transplantation from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2017, and the total number was 13,857. We allocated the ACLF recipients by age intogroup I (donor age ≤17 years, n=647); group II (donor age 18–59 years, n=11,423); and group III (donor age ≥60 years, n=1,787). Overall survival (OS), graft survival, and mortality were com-pared among the three age groups and the four ACLF grades. Cox regression was also analyzed.
Results:
The 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates were 89.6%, 85.5%, and 82.0% in group I; 89.4%, 83.4%, and 78.2% in group II; and 86.8%, 78.4%, and 71.4% in group III, respectively (p<0.001).When we analyzed the different effects of donor age on OS with different ACLF grades, in groupsII and III, we observed statistical differences. Finally, the cubic spline curve told us that the relative death rate changed linearly with increasing donor age.
Conclusions
Donor age is related to OS and graft survival of ACLF patients after transplanta-tion, and poorer results were associated with elderly donors. In addition, different donor ages have different effects on recipients with different ACLF grades.
3.Impact of Donor Age on Liver Transplant Outcomes in Patients with Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure: A Cohort Study
Jie ZHOU ; Danni YE ; Shenli REN ; Jiawei DING ; Tao ZHANG ; Siyao ZHANG ; Zheng CHEN ; Fangshen XU ; Yu ZHANG ; Huilin ZHENG ; Zhenhua HU
Gut and Liver 2025;19(3):398-409
Background/Aims:
Liver transplantation is the most effective treatment for the sickest patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). However, the influence of donor age on liver transplantation, especially in ACLF patients, is still unclear.
Methods:
In this study, we used the data of the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients. We included patients with ACLF who received liver transplantation from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2017, and the total number was 13,857. We allocated the ACLF recipients by age intogroup I (donor age ≤17 years, n=647); group II (donor age 18–59 years, n=11,423); and group III (donor age ≥60 years, n=1,787). Overall survival (OS), graft survival, and mortality were com-pared among the three age groups and the four ACLF grades. Cox regression was also analyzed.
Results:
The 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates were 89.6%, 85.5%, and 82.0% in group I; 89.4%, 83.4%, and 78.2% in group II; and 86.8%, 78.4%, and 71.4% in group III, respectively (p<0.001).When we analyzed the different effects of donor age on OS with different ACLF grades, in groupsII and III, we observed statistical differences. Finally, the cubic spline curve told us that the relative death rate changed linearly with increasing donor age.
Conclusions
Donor age is related to OS and graft survival of ACLF patients after transplanta-tion, and poorer results were associated with elderly donors. In addition, different donor ages have different effects on recipients with different ACLF grades.
4.Impact of Donor Age on Liver Transplant Outcomes in Patients with Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure: A Cohort Study
Jie ZHOU ; Danni YE ; Shenli REN ; Jiawei DING ; Tao ZHANG ; Siyao ZHANG ; Zheng CHEN ; Fangshen XU ; Yu ZHANG ; Huilin ZHENG ; Zhenhua HU
Gut and Liver 2025;19(3):398-409
Background/Aims:
Liver transplantation is the most effective treatment for the sickest patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). However, the influence of donor age on liver transplantation, especially in ACLF patients, is still unclear.
Methods:
In this study, we used the data of the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients. We included patients with ACLF who received liver transplantation from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2017, and the total number was 13,857. We allocated the ACLF recipients by age intogroup I (donor age ≤17 years, n=647); group II (donor age 18–59 years, n=11,423); and group III (donor age ≥60 years, n=1,787). Overall survival (OS), graft survival, and mortality were com-pared among the three age groups and the four ACLF grades. Cox regression was also analyzed.
Results:
The 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates were 89.6%, 85.5%, and 82.0% in group I; 89.4%, 83.4%, and 78.2% in group II; and 86.8%, 78.4%, and 71.4% in group III, respectively (p<0.001).When we analyzed the different effects of donor age on OS with different ACLF grades, in groupsII and III, we observed statistical differences. Finally, the cubic spline curve told us that the relative death rate changed linearly with increasing donor age.
Conclusions
Donor age is related to OS and graft survival of ACLF patients after transplanta-tion, and poorer results were associated with elderly donors. In addition, different donor ages have different effects on recipients with different ACLF grades.
5.Preparation and biological characteristics of extracellular matrix vesicle mimetics
Xinyu ZHANG ; Lin LI ; Siyao LI ; Jiaxin LIANG ; Faming CHEN ; Yuan YIN
Chinese Journal of Stomatology 2024;59(7):663-671
Objective:To investigate the characteristics of extracellular matrix vesicle mimetics prepared by mechanical extrusion and their effects on the cell viability and osteogenic differentiation potential of human periodontal ligament stem cells (PDLSC).Methods:PDLSC derived extracellular matrix vesicles were prepared by collagenase digestion, while the cell derived vesicle mimetics were simulated by mechanical extrusion. The obtained extracellular matrix vesicles and parental cell derived vesicle mimetics were divided into 4 groups: matrix vesicles derived from PDLSC cultured in basic medium for 7 days (PDLSC matrix vesicles, MVs), vesicle mimetics derived from PDLSC cultured in basic medium for 7 days (PDLSC vesicle mimetics, CVMs), matrix vesicles derived from PDLSC cultured in osteogenic inducing medium for 7 days (osteogenic-induced PDLSC matrix vesicles, O-MVs) and vesicle mimetics derived from PDLSC cultured in osteogenic inducing medium for 7 days (osteogenic-induced PDLSC vesicle mimetics, O-CVMs). Vesicles morphologies and sizes were observed by transmission electron microscopy and nanoparticle tracking analysis. Vesicles uptake was detected by immunofluorescence. With PDLSC as the control group, the effects of vesicles on the viability of PDLSC were detected by cell activity assay (cell counting kit-8), and the effects of vesicles on the osteogenic differentiation potential of PDLSC were detected by alizarin red staining and Western blotting.Results:Vesicles in MVs, O-MVs, CVMs and O-CVMs were all observed with a round structure (size 50-250 nm), and could be taken up by PDLSC without affecting the cell viability. Under osteogenic inducing conditions, PDLSC incubated with O-MVs or O-CVMs could produce more mineralized nodules than those in the control group (PDLSC). MVs, O-MVs, CVMs and O-CVMs could promote the expression of osteogenic-related proteins in PDLSC. PDLSC in group O-CVMs showed significant higher expressions of osteogenic-related proteins, including alkaline phosphatase (ALP) (1.571±0.348), osteopontin (OPN) (1.827±0.627) and osteocalcin (OCN) (1.798±0.537) compared to MVs (ALP: 1.156±0.170, OPN: 1.260±0.293, OCN: 1.286±0.302) ( P<0.05). Compared to CMVs-incubated PDLSC, O-CVMs-incubated PDLSC expressed more Runt-related transcription factor 2 (1.632±0.455 vs 1.176±0.128) and OPN (1.827±0.627 vs 1.428±0.427) ( P<0.05). Moreover, there was no significant difference in the expression levels of osteoblast-related proteins in PDLSC cultured with MVs, O-MVs and CVMs ( P>0.05). Conclusions:The vesicle mimetics prepared by mechanical extrusion method are similar in shape and size to the extracellular matrix vesicles. MVs, O-MVs, CVMs and O-CVMs do not affect the cell viability of PDLSC, and can promote the osteogenic differentiation potential of PDLSC to a certain extent.
6.Arrhythmias and electrocardiographic characteristics in cancer patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors
Xuhong GENG ; Nan ZHANG ; Wenhua SONG ; Siyao CHENG ; Yi ZHENG ; Xiaotong MA ; Li WANG ; Xuan LI ; Tong LIU
Chinese Journal of Cardiology 2024;52(6):690-697
Objective:To evaluate the incidence of arrhythmias and electrocardiographic (ECG) characteristics in cancer patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs).Methods:This was a cohort study conducted in the Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University. Cancer patients initiating ICIs treatments from November 2020 to September 2022 were included in this study. Baseline 12-leads ECG before ICIs initiation and post-treatment ECG were analyzed. An abnormal ECG was defined as the presence of any of the following changes: sinus arrhythmias, atrial fibrillation, atrial flutter, paroxysmal supraventricular tachycardia, ventricular tachycardia, premature contractions, conduction disorder, and ST-T changes.Results:A total of 87 patients were enrolled, aged 63 (57, 68) years, with 66 (75.9%) males. And 44.8% (39/87) of patients presented with at least one confirmed cardiovascular disease or cardiovascular risk factor at baseline. The incidence of abnormal ECG increased from 31.0% (27/87) at baseline to 65.5% (57/87) after receiving (5.0±2.7) cycles of ICIs treatment ( P<0.001). The incidence of sinus arrhythmias was significantly increased after ICIs treatment (23.0% (20/87) vs. 9.2% (8/87), P=0.023), of which only the incidence of sinus tachycardia was significantly increased (11.5% (10/87) vs. 2.3% (2/87), P=0.039). There was also a significantly increased incidence of ST-T changes after ICIs treatment (31.0% (27/87) vs. 17.2% (15/87), P=0.012), which mainly attributed to the T wave changes (29.9% (26/87) vs. 13.8% (12/87), P=0.001). The incidence of premature contractions was also significantly increased after ICIs treatment (9.2% (8/87) vs. 0, P=0.008). Additionally, compared with baseline, the P wave axis was significantly increased after ICIs treatment ((56.94±21.01)° vs. (52.00±22.69)°, P=0.043). After ICIs treatment, the heart rate was significantly increased ((79.07±15.37) beats/min vs. (75.64±13.37) beats/min, P=0.029). Sokolow-Lyon index ((2.21±0.81)mV vs. (2.33±0.75)mV, P=0.138), QTc interval ((431.44±36.04)ms vs. (428.00±30.05)ms, P=0.415) all showed signs of change after treatment, but did not reach the traditional significant level. Conclusions:The incidence of abnormal ECG is significantly increased after ICIs treatment, especially for sinus tachycardia, premature contractions and T wave changes; the P wave axis and heart rate is also significantly increased after treatment. It is important to perform regular ECG monitoring in patients receiving ICIs treatment.
7.Comparison of clinical characteristics between first-episode and recurrent acute hypertrigly-ceridemic pancreatitis: a national multicenter clinical research
Shuai LI ; Jing ZHOU ; Guixian LUO ; Hongwei ZHANG ; Siyao LIU ; Weijie YAO ; Donghuang HONG ; Kaixiu QIN ; Lanting WANG ; Rong WEI ; Yizhen XU ; Longxiang CAO ; Zhihui TONG ; Yuxiu LIU ; Weiqin LI ; Lu KE
Chinese Journal of Digestive Surgery 2024;23(5):703-711
Objective:To investigate the clinical characteristics of first-episode and recurrent acute hypertriglyceridemic pancreatitis (HTGP).Methods:The retrospective cohort study was con-ducted. The clinical data of 313 patients with HTGP admitted to 26 medical centers in China in the Chinese Acute Pancreatitis Clinical Research Group (CAPCTG)-PERFORM database from November 2020 to December 2021 were collected. There were 219 males and 94 females, aged 38(32,44)years. Of the 313 patients, 193 patients with first-episode HTGP were allocated into the first-episode group and 120 patients with recurrent HTGP were allocated into the recurrent group. Observation indica-tors: (1) propensity score matching and comparison of general data of patients between the two groups after matching; (2) comparison of severity and prognosis in the course of disease within 14 days between the two groups; (3) the association between recurrent HTGP and the risk of persistent organ failure (POF); (4) follow-up. Measurement data with normal distribution were represented as Mean± SD, and comparison between groups was conducted using the independent sample t test. Measurement data with skewed distribution were represented as M( Q1, Q3), and comparison between groups was conducted using the Wilcoxon rank sum test. Count data were expressed as absolute numbers or percentages, and comparison between groups was conducted using the chi-square test. Comparison of ordinal data was conducted using the Wilcoxon rank sum test. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to plot the cumulative recurrence rate curve and Log-Rank test was used for survival analysis. The Logistic regression model was used for multivariate analysis, and continuous variables were converted into categorical variables according to the mean value or common criteria. Propensity score matching was performed by 1∶1 nearest neighbor matching method, with caliper value of 0.02. Paired t test or Wilcoxon rank sum test and McNemar′s test were used for comparison between matched groups. Results:(1) Propensity score matching and comparison of general data of patients between the two groups after matching. Of the 313 patients,208 cases were successfully matched, including 104 cases in the first-episode group and 104 cases in the recurrent group. After propensity score matching, there was no significant difference in demographic characteristics, severity of illness scores and laboratory test between the two groups ( P>0.05). The elimination of gender, acute physiology and chornic health evaluation (APACHE) Ⅱ score, computed tomography severity index score, systemic inflammatory response syndrome score, sequential organ failure assessment score, apolipoprotein E, C-reactive protein, creatinine, lactic acid dehydrogenase, procal-citonin confounding bias ensured comparability between the two groups. (2) Comparison of severity and prognosis in the course of disease within 14 days between the two groups. There were signifi-cant differences in POF and local complications between the first-episode group and the recurrent group ( P<0.05). (3) The association between recurrent HTGP and the risk of POF. Results of uncor-rected univariate analysis showed that there was no association between recurrent HTGP and the risk of POF ( odds ratio=0.78, 95% confidence interval as 0.46-1.30, P>0.05). Results of multivariate analysis after adjusting for covariates such as gender, age, APACHE Ⅱ score, C-reactive protein, triglyceride and total cholesterol showed that compared with first-episode HTGP, recurrent HTGP was associated with a higher risk of POF ( odds ratio=2.22, 95% confidence interval as 1.05-4.71, P<0.05). Results of subgroup analysis showed that age<40 years was associated with an increased risk of POF ( odds ratio=3.31, 95% confidence interval as 1.09-10.08, P<0.05). (4) Follow-up. Twelve of the 313 patients died during hospitalization, including 9 cases in the first-episode group and 3 cases in the recurrent group. The rest of 301 surviving patients, including 184 cases in the first-episode group and 117 cases in the recurrent group, were followed up for 19.2(15.5, 21.9)months. Results of follow-up showed that for 184 survived patients of the first-episode group, 164 cases were followed up and 24 cases experienced recurrence, for 117 survived patients of the recurrent group,29 cases experienced recurrence, showing a significant difference between the two groups ( χ2=4.67, P<0.05). Conclusion:Compared with first-episode HTGP, patients with recurrent HTGP are more prone to POF and local complications, and are more prone to recurrence after discharge. The risk of POF in recurrent HTGP patients is 2.22 times that of those with first-episode, and the risk is higher in patients with age <40 years.
8.Changes in periretinal defocus and visual quality after femtosecond laser-as-sisted in situ keratomileusis
Yu LI ; Yujuan GUO ; Siyao WANG ; Meimei ZHANG ; Yuehua ZHOU
Recent Advances in Ophthalmology 2024;44(7):558-563
Objective To explore the changes in periretinal defocus and visual quality after femtosecond laser-assis-ted in situ keratomileusis(FS-LASIK).Methods Fifty-one myopic patients(102 eyes)who underwent FS-LASIK at the Ineye Hospital of Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine from March to May 2023 were selected for the study,including 27 females(54 eyes)and 24 males(48 eyes).The defocus around the retina was measured using a multispectral refraction topography,and the total refraction difference value(TRDV)was recorded.The refraction difference value(RDV)in four quadrants:superior RDV(RDV-S),inferior RDV(RDV-I),nasal RDV(RDV-N),and temporal RDV(RDV-T),as well as the RDV in the concentric ring areas corresponding to 10°,20°,30°,40°,and 53° from the fovea of the mac-ula(represented as RDV 0°-10°,RDV 10°-20°,RDV 20°-30°,RDV 30°-40°,and RDV 40°-53°,respectively)were also re-corded.The objective scattering index(OSI),Strehls ratio(SR),modulation transfer function(MTF)values(represen-ted as 10 c·d-1 MTF,20 c·d-1 MTF,and 30 c·d-1MTF,respectively)and cutoff frequencies(MTF cutoff)at the spa-tial frequencies of 10 c·d-1,20 c·d-1 and 30 c·d-1 were measured and recorded using a visual quality analysis system.The data of corneal vertical trefoil(Z3-3),vertical coma(Z3-1),horizontal coma(Z31),horizontal trefoil(Z33),vertical tetrafoil(Z4-4),vertical secondary astigmatism(Z4-2),spherical aberration(Z40),horizontal secondary astigmatism(Z42),horizontal tetrafoil(Z44),and total higher-order aberration(HOA)were measured and recorded using the iTrace aberration meter.The measurement data of patients before surgery,one month after surgery,and three months after sur-gery were compared,and their correlations were analyzed.Results TRDV,RDV-S,RDV-N,RDV 20°-30°,RDV 30°-40°,and RDV 40°-53° around the retina of patients decreased one month and three months after surgery compared with those be-fore surgery,and the differences were statistically significant(all P<0.001).There were statistically significant differences in OSI,MTF cutoff,and 10 c·d-1 MTF among patients before surgery,one month after surgery,and three months after surgery(all P<0.05).There were statistically significant differences in corneal Z3-3,Z3-1,Z31,Z33,Z4-4,Z4-2,Z40,Z42,Z44,and HOA among patients before surgery,one month after surgery,and three months after surgery(all P<0.001).The Pearson correlation analysis results showed that,ΔRDV 0°-10° was positively correlated with ΔZ3-3,ΔZ31,ΔZ4-2,ΔZ40,and ΔZ42(all P<0.05);ΔRDV 10°-20° was positively correlated with ΔZ4-4 and ΔZ4-2(both P<0.05);ΔRDV 20°-30° was positively correlated with ΔZ4-4 and ΔZ44(both P<0.05);ΔTRDV and ΔRDV 40°-53° were negatively correla-ted with ΔHOA(both P<0.05).ΔRDV-S and ΔZ3-1 were negatively correlated with ΔHOA(both P<0.05)and positively correlated with ΔZ44(P<0.05);ΔRDV-N was positively correlated with ΔZ4-4(P<0.05).Conclusion FS-LASIK can reduce periretinal hyperopic defocus in myopic patients,but it introduces corneal HOA,and there is a certain correlation between the two.
9.Development and validation of predictive models for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and its precancerous lesions using terminal motif analysis in circulating cell-free DNA
Siyao LIU ; Zhengqi LI ; Lizhou DOU ; Yueming ZHANG ; Yong LIU ; Yumeng LIU ; Yan KE ; Xudong LIU ; Hairui WU ; Jiangtao CHU ; Shun HE ; Guiqi WANG
Chinese Journal of Oncology 2024;46(6):549-565
Objectives:To develop and validate predictive models for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) using circulating cell-free DNA (cfDNA) terminal motif analysis. The goal was to improve the non-invasive detection of early-stage ESCC and its precancerous lesions.Methods:Between August 2021 and November 2022, we prospectively collected plasma samples from 448 individuals at the Department of Endoscopy, Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences for cfDNA extraction, library construction, and sequencing. We analyzed 201 cases of ESCC, 46 high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia (HGIN), 46 low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia (LGIN), 176 benign esophageal lesions, and 29 healthy controls. Participants, including ESCC patients and control subjects, were randomly assigned to a training set ( n=284) and a validation set ( n=122). The training cohort underwent z-score normalization of cfDNA terminal motif matrices and a selection of distinctive features differentiated ESCC cases from controls. The random forest classifier, Motif-1 (M1), was then developed through principal component analysis, ten-fold cross-validation, and recursive feature elimination. M1's efficacy was then validated in the validation and precancerous lesion sets. Subsequently, individuals with precancerous lesions were included in the dataset and participants were randomly allocated to newly formed training ( n=243), validation ( n=105), and test ( n=150) cohorts. Using the same procedure as M1, we trained the Motif-2 (M2) random forest model with the training cohort. The M2 model's accuracy was then confirmed in the validation cohort to establish the optimal threshold and further tested by performing validation in the test cohort. Results:We developed two cfDNA terminal motif-based predictive models for ESCC and associated precancerous conditions. The first model, M1, achieved a sensitivity of 90.0%, a specificity of 77.4%, and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.884 in the validation cohort. For LGIN, HGIN, and T1aN0 stage ESCC, M1's sensitivities were 76.1%, 80.4%, and 91.2% respectively. Notably, the sensitivity for jointly predicting HGIN and T1aN0 ESCC reached 85.0%. Both the predictive accuracy and sensitivity increased in line with the cancer's progression ( P<0.001). The second model, M2, exhibited a sensitivity of 87.5%, a specificity of 77.4%, and an AUC of 0.857 in the test cohort. M2's sensitivities for detecting precancerous lesions and ESCC were 80.0% and 89.7%, respectively, and it showed a combined sensitivity of 89.4% for HGIN and T1aN0 stage ESCC. Conclusions:Two predictive models based on cfDNA terminal motif analysis for ESCC and its precancerous lesions are developed. They both show high sensitivity and specificity in identifying ESCC and its precancerous stages, indicating its potential for early ESCC detection.
10.Development and validation of predictive models for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and its precancerous lesions using terminal motif analysis in circulating cell-free DNA
Siyao LIU ; Zhengqi LI ; Lizhou DOU ; Yueming ZHANG ; Yong LIU ; Yumeng LIU ; Yan KE ; Xudong LIU ; Hairui WU ; Jiangtao CHU ; Shun HE ; Guiqi WANG
Chinese Journal of Oncology 2024;46(6):549-565
Objectives:To develop and validate predictive models for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) using circulating cell-free DNA (cfDNA) terminal motif analysis. The goal was to improve the non-invasive detection of early-stage ESCC and its precancerous lesions.Methods:Between August 2021 and November 2022, we prospectively collected plasma samples from 448 individuals at the Department of Endoscopy, Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences for cfDNA extraction, library construction, and sequencing. We analyzed 201 cases of ESCC, 46 high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia (HGIN), 46 low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia (LGIN), 176 benign esophageal lesions, and 29 healthy controls. Participants, including ESCC patients and control subjects, were randomly assigned to a training set ( n=284) and a validation set ( n=122). The training cohort underwent z-score normalization of cfDNA terminal motif matrices and a selection of distinctive features differentiated ESCC cases from controls. The random forest classifier, Motif-1 (M1), was then developed through principal component analysis, ten-fold cross-validation, and recursive feature elimination. M1's efficacy was then validated in the validation and precancerous lesion sets. Subsequently, individuals with precancerous lesions were included in the dataset and participants were randomly allocated to newly formed training ( n=243), validation ( n=105), and test ( n=150) cohorts. Using the same procedure as M1, we trained the Motif-2 (M2) random forest model with the training cohort. The M2 model's accuracy was then confirmed in the validation cohort to establish the optimal threshold and further tested by performing validation in the test cohort. Results:We developed two cfDNA terminal motif-based predictive models for ESCC and associated precancerous conditions. The first model, M1, achieved a sensitivity of 90.0%, a specificity of 77.4%, and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.884 in the validation cohort. For LGIN, HGIN, and T1aN0 stage ESCC, M1's sensitivities were 76.1%, 80.4%, and 91.2% respectively. Notably, the sensitivity for jointly predicting HGIN and T1aN0 ESCC reached 85.0%. Both the predictive accuracy and sensitivity increased in line with the cancer's progression ( P<0.001). The second model, M2, exhibited a sensitivity of 87.5%, a specificity of 77.4%, and an AUC of 0.857 in the test cohort. M2's sensitivities for detecting precancerous lesions and ESCC were 80.0% and 89.7%, respectively, and it showed a combined sensitivity of 89.4% for HGIN and T1aN0 stage ESCC. Conclusions:Two predictive models based on cfDNA terminal motif analysis for ESCC and its precancerous lesions are developed. They both show high sensitivity and specificity in identifying ESCC and its precancerous stages, indicating its potential for early ESCC detection.

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