1.Epidemiological characteristics and spatial clustering of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Hubei Province in 2010 - 2023
Wengwen YANG ; Ran WU ; Peng ZHANG ; Jing CAI ; Cong XIE ; Shuqiong HUANG ; Mingyan LI
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2024;35(6):45-49
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and temporal spatial clustering of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Hubei Province from 2010 to 2023, and to provide evidence for formulating prevention and control measures. Methods Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the surveillance data of hand, foot, and mouth disease of Hubei Province from 2010 to 2023, and spatial clustering analysis was conducted at the district/county level using ArcGIS 10.5 software. Results A total of 1 007 600 cases of hand, foot, and mouth disease were reported from 2010 to 2023, and the average annual incidence rate was 123.60/100 000. Overall , it exhibited a cyclical pattern of high incidence every other year. Except for a few years, two peaks of incidence were observed each year, , with the first peak occurring between April to July and the second occurring in October to December, and the popular season was concentrated from April to July. Children aged < 5 years were primarily affected, with a high incidence in male patients (1.53:1). The incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease showed a positive spatial autocorrelation(Moran's I was between 0.15 to 0.76, P<0.05)at the district/county level. The hot spots were concentrated in the northwest and southeast of Hubei Province, and the cool spots were concentrated in the east of central Hubei Province. Conclusion The incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease has obvious seasonality and spatial clustering in Hubei Province. The key prevention and control areas are concentrated in the northwest and southeast of Hubei. Enhanced prevention and control measures should be targeted on children under 5 years old and key areas to effectively reduce the occurrence of cases.
2.Spatial-temporal distribution characteristics and prediction of influenza in Hubei in 2009-2020
Mengmeng YANG ; Shengsheng ZHANG ; Shuqiong HUANG ; Xixiang HUO
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2023;34(6):35-39
Objective To explore the spatial-temporal characteristics of influenza epidemic in Hubei from 2009 to 2020, and make short-term prediction to provide reference for influenza prevention and control strategies. Methods Time series seasonal decomposition model and geographic spatial analysis method were used to analyze spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of influenza prevalence in Hubei during 2009-2020. LSTM neural network model was used to predict the monthly influenza incidence from 2020 to 2023. Results Influenza was mainly prevalent in the end of winter and the beginning of spring (December to March) were periods of high influenza incidence. In recent years, the influenza pandemic has shown an increasing trend. Influenza epidemic was characterized by significant spatial differentiation, with “A-shaped point-axis structure” surrounding counties were more severe . The epidemic center of gravity experienced a spatial evolution process from west to east and from north to south. LSTM neural network model predicted that although the influenza incidence rate from January 2020 to December 2023 is lower than that in 2019, it is still at a high level, and shows a peak epidemic in winter and spring. Conclusion Influenza epidemic in Hubei is characterized by a high epidemic period in late winter and early spring, and the southeast of Hubei is the key epidemic area. It is suggested that publicity and prevention and control should be strengthened according to people, time and place, and key populations and areas should be encouraged to receive influenza vaccines in advance.
3.Spatial clustering and dynamic change of mumps in Hubei Province in 2010-2020
Wenwen YANG ; Cong XIE ; Peng ZHANG ; Jing CAI ; Ran WU ; Shuqiong HUANG
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2022;33(4):24-27
Objective To explore spatial clustering of mumps in Hubei Province during 2010-2020, and to provide evidence for mumps prevention and control. Methods The surveillance data of mumps during 2010-2020 in Hubei Province was obtained from the national infectious diseases reporting information system. Trend surface analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis of mumps incidences at county/district levels were performed using ArcGIS10.5 software. Results Mumps incidence rates in Hubei Province during 2010-2018 ranged from 8.70 per 100 000 to 44.99 per 100 000. The trend surface analysis showed that mumps incidences gradually decreased from west to east, and was low in the middle and high at the north-south direction. Global spatial autocorrelation showed that there were positive spatial correlations in every year except 2012 and 2014 (Morans I> 0, P <0.05). Local autocorrelation analysis showed that the hotspots of mumps incidences varied every year from 2010 to 2020. Conclusions According to the spatial analysis, mumps incidences had obvious spatial clustering in Hubei Province. The hotspots were mainly concentrated in the northwestern region of Hubei, but the hot spots also extended to the urban areas of eastern, central and northern Hubei. It is necessary to take appropriate prevention and control measures in the high-incidence areas.
4.Epidemiological characteristics analysis and incidence trend prediction of gonorrhea in Hubei Province in 2010-2021
Peng ZHANG ; Jing CAI ; Shuqiong HUANG ; Ran WU ; Mingyan LI
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2022;33(4):63-66
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend of gonorrhea in Hubei Province, and to provide reference for scientific formulation of prevention and control measures. Methods Based on the surveillance data of gonorrhea from 2010 to 2021, three-way distribution and ARIMA model were used for data analysis and incidence prediction. Results From 2010 to 2021, the reported incidence rate fluctuated between 3.01/100 000-7.07/100 000, and the average annual reported incidence rate was 4.62/100 000. The reported incidence rate showed the characteristics of “first fall and then rise, and then fall and rise again”, and the peak incidence period was from June to December. The male to female ratio of reported cases was 5.78:1, and the number of reported cases in the age group of 20-39 years old accounted for 62.43% of the total number of cases. The reported cases were mainly housework and unemployed, farmers, and unknown occupation. The severity of the regional incidence was divided into 5 categories by the Q-type clustering, and the most serious category included Shennongjia Forest District, Huangshi City, and Wuhan City. The ARIMA model predicted the incidence rate to be in good agreement with the actual incidence rate, with a predicted number of 3 343 cases in 2022. Conclusion At present, gonorrhea in Hubei Province is still at a high prevalence level. There are obvious differences in gender, age, occupation, and regional distribution. The ARIMA model is suitable for predicting the incidence of gonorrhea, and it is predicted that the incidence will increase slightly in 2022.
5.Serum IgM and IgG antibody response six months post-COVID-19 vaccination
Lin WANG ; Yingrong DU ; Zhiqiang MA ; Jie LI ; Shuqiong ZHANG ; Xiaoqing TANG ; Chunyan QU ; Yaru DUAN ; Caixin LI
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2022;34(2):126-129
Objective To determine the serum IgM and IgG antibody levels post-COVID-19 vaccination, and provide scientific evidence for COVID-19 antibody response after vaccination. Methods A total of 980 healthy persons were included in Kunming Third People’s Hospital from July through August, 2021, which had been vaccinated with COVID-19 vaccines and then tested for anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgM and IgG antibodies. Results After the COVID-19 vaccination, 469 persons (positive rate, 47.86%) were positive for anti-IgG antibody. Of them, 75 were males with (positive rate, 39.06%), and the average IgG level was 0.618 (0.180, 2.526) AU
6.Reflection on the management of infectious disease information reporting during the COVID-19 outbreak
Shuqiong HUANG ; Jing CAI ; Peng ZHANG ; Wenwen YANG ; Ran WU ; Cong XIE ; Mingyan LI
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2020;31(4):1-4
Objective Summarize the characteristics of infectious disease reporting management, reflect on the exposed problems, and make reference suggestions under the situation of COVID-19. Methods In-depth analysis through literature research and practical demonstration. Results The functions of each department, organic integration, unified management, communication from top to bottom, upgrade and perfection, and information sharing can give full play to the early warning role of infectious disease surveillance. Conclusion The infectious disease reporting management system should be perfected and upgraded from top to bottom and from the inside out.
7.Epidemiological characteristics and the incidence trend prediction of measles in Hubei Province, 2005-2018
Jing CAI ; Shuqiong HUANG ; Peng ZHANG ; Wenwen YANG
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2020;31(2):42-45
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of measles, predict the incidence trend of the disease, and provide reference for the development of measles prevention and elimination strategies. Methods Descriptive analysis, seasonal index method, clustering analysis and ARIMA model were used for data analysis and trend prediction. Results The average annual incidence of measles in 2005-2018 was 3.01/100,000. It was at a low level after 2009, and rebounded in 2018. The seasonal index of March-June was greater than 1, which was the month of high incidence. The incidence of men was higher than that of women. The 0-3 years old and 10-30 years old groups had a high incidence, and the population was mainly scattered children, students, and nursery children. The areas with high incidence were mainly northwestern and southeastern Hubei. ARIMA (0,1,0) (0,1,1) was the optimal model. The prediction analysis showed that the incidence rate in 2019 will be 1.26/100 000. Conclusion After the implementation of booster immunization, the measles epidemic in Hubei Province was at a low level, but it fluctuated greatly in recent years and is currently showing a rising trend. The incidence was high in spring. Cases were "biphasic shift" in groups 0-3 years old and 10-30 years old. Occupational distribution was consistent with the characteristics of high incidence in the age group. The mountain areas with poor sanitary conditions and economic backwardness, and regions with large population bases and high floating populations had a high incidence. The ARIMA model had good applicability in predicting the trend of measles incidence, which shows measles will continue to rise in 2019.
8.Comparative study of ARIMA model and seasonal index model in the prediction of mumps in Hubei Province
Peng ZHANG ; Jing CAI ; Shuqiong HUANG ; Wenwen YANG ; Cong XIE ; Ran WU
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2020;31(6):29-32
Objective To establish an ARIMA model and a seasonal index model to predict the trend of mumps, compare the advantages and disadvantages of the two models, and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of mumps. Methods ARIMA model and seasonal index model were established based on the monthly incidence of mumps in Hubei Province from 2008 to 2019. Results The average annual incidence rate from 2008 to 2019 was 28.89 / 100,000. April-July was the month of high incidence. The established ARIMA model and seasonal index model were (1-1.070B+0.441B2-0.291B3)*(1-B12)*Xt=(1-0.611B12)*Ɛt and Xt=(2.802-0.006t)*St. The average relative errors of the ARIMA model and the seasonal index model were 11.49% and 20.86%, respectively. Conclusion The ARIMA model and the seasonal index model both have good applicability in predicting the onset time characteristics and trend of mumps. However, while the ARIMA model demonstrated more advantages in fitting the annual change trend, the seasonal index model is better in fitting the monthly change trend. The two models can be used in combination to predict the trend of mumps.
9.Genetic testing and prenatal diagnosis of X-linked ichthyosis in two pedigrees
Liangpu XU ; Min ZHANG ; Hailong HUANG ; Yan WANG ; Na LIN ; Gang AN ; Shuqiong HE ; Meihuan CHEN ; Lingji CHEN ; Yuan LIN
Chinese Journal of Perinatal Medicine 2018;21(5):293-300
Objective To analyze genetic testing and prenatal diagnosis of two pedigrees with X-linked ichthyosis.Methods Karyotyping,bacterial artificial chromosomes-on-BeadsTM (BoBs),fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) and single nucleotide polymorphism array (SNP-array) were used to detect amniotic fluid and peripheral blood specimens of two pedigrees,one with and one without known family history of ichthyosis.Clinical data was collected and analyzed as well.Results (1) The pedigree without known family history:Prenatal BoBs showed that the XC1 probe of fetus Ⅳ-12 was from 0.36 to 0.50,suggesting the presence of microdeletion.SNP-array analysis of gravida Ⅲ-13 showed a 1.68 Mb copy number deletion at Xp22.31 and four missing Online Mendelian Inheritance in Man (OMIM) genes (HDHD1,STS,VCX and PNPLA4).Fetal SNP-array revealed a deletion of arr[hg19] Xp22.31 (6 455 151-8 135 644)× 0,indicating a maternally inherited one.FISH analysis verified the deletion in STS gene in fetus Ⅳ-12,whose karyotype was 46,XY.The gravida's female cousin (Ⅲ-21) and nephew (Ⅳ-14) also had STS gene deletion,which size was the same as that from the gravida and the fetus.Fetus (Ⅳ-12) was delivered at term by cesarean section with normal skin,but an extensive white scales appeared on the abdomen one week after birth and the symptom was aggravated when the weather was dry.The infant was followed up to eight months old and no other clinical symptoms were found.(2) The pedigree with known family history:SNP-array revealed that a 1.2 Mb copy number deletion at Xp22.31 and four missing OMIM genes (HDHD1,STS,VCX and PNPLA4) were detected in pregnant women (Ⅲ-21),proband (Ⅳ-16) and fetus (Ⅳ-17).FISH analysis of the fetus verified the deletion in STS gene.The karyotype of the fetus was 46,XY.Fetus Ⅳ-17 was delivered at term by cesarean section with normal skin,but white scales widely appeared on the abdomen ten days after birth.The infant was followed up to four months old and no other clinical symptoms were found.Conclusion Molecular genetic techniques such as BoBs,FISH and SNP array are used in combination in this study to provide genetic testing and prenatal diagnosis to two XLI pedigrees,which is helpful for clinical diagnosis and genetic counseling.
10.An experimental study on the scavenging effect of ascorbic acid on iodate ions in simulated gastric juice
Yaping ZHANG ; Shuqiong ZHANG ; Na LI
Chinese Journal of Endemiology 2017;36(3):176-181
Objective To explore the conversion rate of iodate ions (IO3-) being reduced to iodide ions (I-) by ascorbic acid (C6HsO6,VC) in simulated human gastric juice,and to provide references for further safety evaluation of edible salt iodized with potassium iodate.Methods An ion chromatography method was developed to detect iodide ions in simulated gastric juice.The conversion rate of iodate ions being reduced to iodide ions was used as the index for scavenging rate of iodate ions.In simulated gastric juice in vitro and in 37 C water bath,the scavenging effects of VC on iodate ions were determined in simulated gastric juice with different VC concentrations and simulated gastric juice acidities,as well as for different reaction time.Ion chromatography column:Dionex IonPac AS19 (250 mm × 4.0 mm);eluent:KOH 30 mmol/L (online produced),isocratic eluting,flow rate 1.0 ml/min,injection volume 100 μl,and detected by a conductivity detector.Results Performance of the method:within the range of 0-5 000 μg/L,iodide ions concentration and the chromatographic peak area had a good linearity (correlation coefficient r =0.999 7),and the detection limit of iodide ions was 20 μg/L.For quantification of iodide ions in simulated gastric juice,the relative standard deviation (RSD) of repeated measure for 6 times was < 2.0%,the standard addition recovery rate was 97.6%-102.4%,and the overall average recovery rate was 99.4%.In the simulated gastric juice with a pH of 1.4 containing 5 mg/L and ≥ 10 mg/L VC,the reaction time to achieve 100% conversion rate of iodate ions being reduced to iodide ions was 5 min and 2 min,respectively.In the simulated gastric juice with a pH of 3 containing 10 mg/L ascorbic acid,the reaction time to achieve 100% conversion rate was 15 min.VC quantitatively reduced iodate ions to iodide ions by the stoichiometric relationship between reactants of the reduction reaction equation,and every 100 μg VC quantitatively reduced 24.0μg of iodine in iodate to iodide ions.Conclusions In simulated gastric juice,the reaction of iodate ions being reduced to iodide ions by VC is a stoichiometric reaction with relatively fast reaction rate,the scavenging rate of iodate ions by VC within the concentration level in human gastric juice can reach 100%.The results prompt that the iodate ions from edible salt iodized with potassium iodate in daily diet are reduced to iodide ions mainly in the human stomach.


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