1.Research on the prediction of internet outpatient visits in public hospitals based on ARIMA and GM(1,1)model
Yanjie XU ; Liang XIN ; Junqing LIU ; Yan LI ; Shiyun LI ; Ruozhen WANG ; Honglei DONG
Modern Hospital 2024;24(1):14-19
Objective To understand the changing trend of Internet outpatient visits in public hospitals,and provide support for the development planning of Internet hospitals.Methods Using the data of Internet outpatient visits in a public hos-pital from January 2021 to June 2023,the ARIMA model and GM(1,1)model were constructed respectively.The mean absolute error(MAE)and root mean square error(RMSE)were used to evaluate the fitting effect,and the Internet outpatient visits from July to December 2023 were predicted based on the dominance model.Results ARIMA(1,2,1)model and GM(1,1)model were used to predict the number of return visits of Internet outpatient service.The average absolute errors were 369.86 and 978.84,and the root-mean-square errors were 479.49 and 1444.83,respectively.The ARIMA(0,1,0)model and GM(1,1)model were used to predict the number of Internet outpatient consultations.The average absolute errors were 297.23 and 369.62,and the root-mean-square errors were 413.61 and 496.30,respectively,indicating that the ARIMA model has a good prediction effect.The forecast results show that the predicted value of Internet outpatient visits in December 2023 is 14,831 cases,and the predicted value of consultation visits is 7461 cases.Conclusion The number of Internet outpatient visits in a public hospital will continue to rise from 2021 to 2023.Therefore,hospitals should fully realize the importance of Internet medical services,take ac-tive measures to continuously optimize the medical service model,and provide patients with high-quality,efficient and convenient Internet medical services.
2.Predictive analysis of internet-based oncology outpatient visits trend based on ARIMA and GM(1,1)models
Yanjie XU ; Liang XIN ; Junqing LIU ; Yan LI ; Shiyun LI ; Ruozhen WANG ; Henglei DONG
Modern Hospital 2024;24(2):275-279
Objective To investigate the changing trend of the current situation of Internet-based oncology outpatient treatment and provide support for the development and management of Internet hospitals.Methods The ARIMA and GM(1,1)models were constructed based on the Internet-based outpatient data of a cancer hospital from January 2021 to June 2023,and the fitting effect was evaluated by mean absolute error(MAE)and root mean square error(RMSE).Based on the model,the pro-portion of Internet-based outpatient visits and the offline outpatient visits were predicted from July to December 2023.Results ARIMA(1,1,2)and GM(1,1)models were used to predict the proportion of Internet-based outpatient visits.The average abso-lute errors were 2.06%and 2.41%,and the root-mean-square errors were 3.01%and 3.17%,respectively.The ARIMA(0,1,1)and GM(1,1)models were used to predict the proportion of Internet-based outpatient visits to the offline outpatient visits,with the rate of the average absolute errors of 0.58%and 1.08%,respectively,and the rate of the root mean square errors 0.75%and 1.31%,respectively.The figures indicated that the ARIMA model had a better prediction effect.The forecast results showed that the predicted value of Internet outpatient service in December 2023 was 90.35%,and the predicted value of Internet-based outpatient service accounted for 16.46%of the offline outpatient service.Conclusion In 2021-2023,the proportion of Inter-net-based outpatient visits in the cancer hospital showed a steady trend,and the proportion of Internet outpatient visits in the off-line outpatient visits showed a rising trend.Therefore,hospitals need to establish a continuous monitoring mechanism,constantly adjust management strategies and measures to meet the needs of patients and continue to promote the high-quality development of Internet-based medical services.
3.Gestational dexamethasone exposure impacts hippocampal excitatory synaptic transmission and learning and memory function with transgenerational effects.
Mingcui LUO ; Yiwen YI ; Songqiang HUANG ; Shiyun DAI ; Lulu XIE ; Kexin LIU ; Shuai ZHANG ; Tao JIANG ; Tingting WANG ; Baozhen YAO ; Hui WANG ; Dan XU
Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica B 2023;13(9):3708-3727
The formation of learning and memory is regulated by synaptic plasticity in hippocampal neurons. Here we explored how gestational exposure to dexamethasone, a synthetic glucocorticoid commonly used in clinical practice, has lasting effects on offspring's learning and memory. Adult offspring rats of prenatal dexamethasone exposure (PDE) displayed significant impairments in novelty recognition and spatial learning memory, with some phenotypes maintained transgenerationally. PDE impaired synaptic transmission of hippocampal excitatory neurons in offspring of F1 to F3 generations, and abnormalities of neurotransmitters and receptors would impair synaptic plasticity and lead to impaired learning and memory, but these changes failed to carry over to offspring of F5 and F7 generations. Mechanistically, altered hippocampal miR-133a-3p-SIRT1-CDK5-NR2B signaling axis in PDE multigeneration caused inhibition of excitatory synaptic transmission, which might be related to oocyte-specific high expression and transmission of miR-133a-3p. Together, PDE affects hippocampal excitatory synaptic transmission, with lasting consequences across generations, and CDK5 in offspring's peripheral blood might be used as an early-warning marker for fetal-originated learning and memory impairment.
4.The formula of ω-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids improving cognitive impairment in patients with depres-sion:a clinical randomized double-blind controlled trial
Rong MA ; Shiyun WU ; Cai SONG ; Xu DAI ; Yong-Ping ZHANG ; Hebin HUANG ; Weicong LU ; Runhua WANG ; Guiyun XU ; Kangguang LIN
Chinese Journal of Nervous and Mental Diseases 2023;49(10):591-597
Objective To investigate the effects of different ratios of ω-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids(ω-3 PUFA)on depression and cognitive impairment in patients with major depression.Methods A randomized,double-blinded controlled trial was used to randomly assign patients with depression to a cognitive improvement group,a depression improvement group,and a placebo group.The cognitive improvement group took 1388 mg of docosahexaenoic acid(DHA)and 692 mg of eicosapentaenoic acid(EPA)every day and the depression improvement group took 1248 mg of EPA and 832 mg of DHA every day.The placebo group took the same dose of soybean oil for 12 weeks,during which psychiatric medication was maintained.The 24-item Hamilton depression scale(HAMD-24)was used to evaluate depressive symptoms,and the standardized MATRICS consensus cognitive battery(MCCB)was used to evaluate cognitive function after 6 weeks and 12 weeks,respectively.Results The study recruited a total of 46 patients with depression including 22 in the cognitive improvement group,12 in the depression improvement group,and 12 in the placebo group.After 6 weeks of treatment,the HAMD-24 scores were significantly lower in the depression improvement group(19.00±10.70)and cognitive improvement group(16.58±9.39)than in the placebo group(31.10±10.03)(P<0.01).After 12 weeks of treatment,HAMD-24 scores were significantly lower in the depression improvement group(13.58±8.43)than in the placebo group(28.10±15.04)(P=0.02).No significant interaction effect was found on the cognitive assessment scores in any dimension after 6 weeks and 12 weeks of treatment(P>0.05).The incidence rate of adverse events in the depression improvement group was 16.7%(2/12),and no adverse events were reported in the other two groups.There was no significant difference in the incidence of adverse events among the three groups(P=0.13).Conclusion Treatment with ω-3PUFA for 6 weeks can improve the depressive symptoms of patients with depression.The formula with a higher ratio of EPA exhibits higher effectiveness while the two groups of ω-3PUFA formulas with different ratios do not improve cognitive function.
5.Analysis of risk factors affecting in-hospital mortality in patients with acute mesenteric ischemia
Liang XU ; Ming LI ; Shiyun TAN
Chinese Journal of Digestion 2023;43(6):401-405
Objective:To investigate the risk factors affecting in-hospital mortality in patients with acute mesenteric ischemia (AMI).Methods:From January 1, 2014 to June 30, 2022, the clinical data of 67 patients diagnosed with AMI at Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University were retrospectively analyzed, which included basic data (age, gender, past medical history and comorbidities, etc.), laboratory results (white blood cell count (WBC), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), creatinine, prothrombin time (PT), etc.), and imaging manifestations (intestinal pneumatosis, intestinal wall thickening, intestinal dilation, ascites). The clinical data of AMI patients who died during hospitalization were compared with that of AMI patients who survived. Binary logistic regression was used to analyze the independent risk factors of in-hospital mortality in patients with AMI. Mann-Whitney U test and chi-square test were used for statistical analysis. Results:Among the 67 patients with AMI, 17 died and 50 survived. There were significant differences between died and survived patients with AMI in age, the proportion of patients with organ failure, WBC, ALT, AST, creatinine, PT, and the proportion of patients with intestinal dilatation and ascites (76 years old(68 years old, 79 years old) vs. 61 years old (50 years old, 74 years old), 12/17 vs.12.0%(6/50), 15.8×10 9/L(13.5×10 9/L, 23.7×10 9/L) vs. 12.1×10 9/L (9.1×10 9/L, 19.4×10 9/L), 32.0 U/L(19.0 U/L, 88.5 U/L) vs. 20.5 U/L(14.8 U/L, 29.0 U/L), 64.0 U/L(33.8 U/L, 117.0 U/L) vs. 26.0 U/L (18.5 U/L, 36.8 U/L), 135.0 μmol/L(61.5 μmol/L, 198.5 μmol/L) vs. 73.5 μmol/L(60.5 μmol/L, 85.0 μmol/L), 13.7 s(12.9 s, 16.3 s) vs. 12.7 s (11.9 s, 13.6 s), 13/17 vs. 38.0%(19/50), 10/17 vs. 24.0% (12/50); Z=3.06, χ2=22.16, Z=2.01, 2.69, 4.08, 2.45 and 2.78, χ2=7.53 and 6.98; P=0.002, <0.001, =0.044, =0.007, <0.001, =0.014, =0.006, =0.006 and =0.008). The results of binary logistic regression analysis showed that age ( OR=1.224, 95% confidence interval 1.011 to 1.482, P=0.038), organ failure ( OR=113.989, 95% confidence interval 1.353 to 9 604.644, P=0.036), and ascites ( OR=348.289, 95% confidence interval 1.676 to 72 357.934, P=0.032) were independent risk factors of in-hospital mortality in AMI patients. Conclusion:Age, organ failure and ascites are independent risk factors of in-hospital mortality in AMI patients.
6.Epidemiological characteristics of mpox epidemic in Guangzhou
Ruonan ZHEN ; Wenzhe SU ; Yunjing WEN ; Shiyun LUO ; Xinlong LIAO ; Zhiyong TAN ; Yefei LUO ; Zhigang HAN ; Jianxiong XU ; Biao DI ; Pengzhe QIN
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2023;44(9):1421-1425
Objective:To understand the epidemiological characteristics of mpox epidemic in Guangzhou and provide scientific evidence for the prevention and control of the disease.Methods:Based on the mpox surveillance system in Guangzhou, suspected mpox cases with fever and rash were reported by local hospitals at all levels to centers for disease control and prevention in Guangzhou for sampling, investigation and diagnosis. Descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted on the clinical characteristics and treatment of the mpox cases and positive detection rate reported in Guangzhou as of 24:00 on June 23. Whole genome sequencing of the virus isolates was performed using Illumina Miniseq high-throughput sequencing platform.Results:The first mpox case in Guangzhou was reported on June 10 in 2023. As of 24:00 on June 23, a total of 25 confirmed mpox cases were reported. All the mpox cases were men with a M( Q1, Q3) of 32 (26, 36) years, the majority of the cases were MSM (96.0%). The main clinical features were rash (100.0%, 25/25), lymphadenectasis (100.0%, 25/25) and fever (52.0%, 13/25). Rash usually occurred near the genitals (88.0%, 22/25). The close contacts, mainly family members (40.4%, 23/57), showed no similar symptoms, such as fever or rash. The positive rate of mpox virus in household environment samples was 30.5%. The analyses on 3 complete gene sequences of mpox virus indicated that the strains belonged to West African type Ⅱb clade, B.1.3 lineage. Conclusions:Hidden transmission of mpox virus had occurred in MSM in Guangzhou. However, the size of affected population is relatively limited, and the possibility of wide spread of the virus is low.
7.Myelodysplastic syndrome/myeloproliferative neoplasm with ring sideroblasts and thrombocytosis: report of 2 cases and review of literature
Wenyu GONG ; Shiyun XU ; Qichuan JIN ; Chun LING ; Wenqiang BAO ; Qiguo ZHANG
Journal of Leukemia & Lymphoma 2022;31(2):103-106
Objective:To deepen the understanding of myelodysplastic syndrome/myeloproliferative neoplasm with ring sideroblasts and thrombocytosis (MDS/MPN-RS-T), and to improve the levels of precise diagnosis and individualized treatment.Methods:The clinical data and next-generation sequencing molecular cloning results of two MDS/MPN-RS-T patients who were admitted to the First People's Hospital of Chuzhou in October 2017 and November 2019 were retrospectively analyzed, and the related literature was reviewed.Results:Case 1 was a 76-year-old female. The mutation loads from high to low were DNMT3A, JAK2 V617F and SF3B1. After administration of hydroxyurea, this patient acquired amelioration in anemia, and the platelet count improved. The clinical course was indolent. Case 2 was a 66-year-old male, who was initially diagnosed with essential thrombocythemia but failed to acquire response after hydroxyurea treatment. MDS/MP-RS-T was diagnosed after comprehensive examination. The mutation loads from high to low were SF3B1, ASXL1, JAK2 V617F and SRSF2. Pancytopenia occurred after disease progression, and the JAK2 V617F mutation finally turned negative. Administration of erythropoietin and lenalidomide failed to improve the condition, but low-dose decitabine treatment (10 mg/d, 3-5 d, once a month) improved the hematopoiesis.Conclusions:The co-mutation of JAK2 V617F and SF3B1 has a suggestive effect on the diagnosis of MDS/MPN-RS-T, and dynamic next-generation sequencing is helpful to elucidate the molecular nature of clinical heterogeneity of the disease. Low-dose decitabine has a certain curative effect on MDS/MPN-RS-T.
8.To prevent imported cases from outside and stop spread inside taken by Huzhou government was proved to be effective. All the COVID-19 cases in Huzhou were imported,mostly from Wuhan. No local cases were reported.
HU Shiyun ; YU Wei ; XU Xiaoling ; DING Fang ; HUANG Yanying ; YAN Jing
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2020;32(5):437-441
Objective:
To learn the prevalence and influencing factors of dyslipidemia among the residents aged 35-75 years in Zhejiang Province, so as to provide basis for prevention and control of dyslipidemia.
Methods:
Based on the national high-risk early screening and comprehensive intervention program for cardiovascular disease, multi-stage stratified cluster sampling method was adopted to select 35-75 year-old permanent residents from six cities (counties or districts) in Zhejiang Province. A questionnaire survey was used to collect demographic data;physical examination and laboratory test were carried out. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to analyze the influencing factors for dyslipidemia.
Results :
A total of 44 440 residents were investigated and 40 751 residents responded,accounting for 91.70%. The crude prevalence rate of dyslipidemia was 36.88% (15 027 cases) and the age-standardized one was 34.58%. The crude prevalence rates of hypercholesterolemia, hypertriglyceridemia and high low density lipoprotein-cholesterol were 18.10%, 14.05%, 10.57% and 15.78%, respectively,the age-standardized ones were 16.11%, 13.76% and 14.53%, respectively.The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age (OR=1.006, 95%CI:1.004-1.008),urban residence (OR=1.139, 95%CI: 1.087-1.194),smoking (OR=1.099, 95%CI: 1.033-1.170),drinking (OR=0.915,95%CI: 0.863-0.970),underweight (OR=0.623, 95%CI: 0.528-0.735), overweight (OR=1.624,95%CI: 1.552-1.699), obesity (OR=2.128, 95%CI: 1.985-2.281), diabetes (OR=1.600, 95%CI: 1.493-1.715), hypertension (OR=1.218, 95%CI: 1.165-1.273) and hyperurcemia (OR=1.789, 95%CI: 1.679-1.905) were associated with dyslipidemia.
Conclusions
The age-standardized prevalence rate of dyslipidemia among the residents aged 35-75 years in Zhejiang Province was lower than that in the whole country,but the prevalence rates of hypercholesterolemia,hypertriglyceridemia and high low density lipoprotein-cholesterol were relatively high.
9.Office blood pressure combined with ambulatory blood pressure monitoring in hypertension diagnosis
DING Fang ; YU Wei ; HU Shiyun ; XUAN Cheng ; YU Liuyan ; CHEN Qifeng ; FAN Minhua ; LIU Qingmin ; XU Xiaoling ; YAN Jing
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2020;32(5):460-465
Objective:
To evaluate the effects of office blood pressure(OBP)combined with ambulatory blood pressure monitoring(ABPM)on the diagnosis of hypertension.
Methods:
The residents aged 35-79 years without hypertension history,whose casual OBP were 120~159 mm Hg/80~99 mm Hg,were enrolled from 4 communities of Hangzhou and Zhuji from 2015 to 2018. They were performed OBP measurements on other two days in 4 weeks and ABPM in a week. There were 2 criteria of OBP as elevated OBP on the first day or in 3 different days,and 4 criteria of ABPM as elevated mean BP in 24 hours, daytime, nighttime and either of the above time. Receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was employed to evaluate the effects of different OBP criteria combined with ABPM criteria on the diagnosis of masked hypertension(MH)and white-coat hypertension(WCH).
Results:
Taking 3-day-OBP as a golden standard,the 1-day-OBP with 4 ABPM criteria had the areas under the ROC curve(AUC)of 0.79-0.81,sensitivity of 57.58%-62.77% and specificity of 100.00% in MH;had the AUC of 0.95-0.98,sensitivity of 100.00% and specificity of 88.96%-96.80% in WCH. The Kappa values were all less than 0.6,known as low consistency. Taking either time of ABPM as a golden standard,24 hours,daytime and nighttime ABPM criteria with OBP had the AUC of 0.90-0.92,sensitivity of 79.17%-83.90% and specificity of 100.00% in MH(all Kappa>0.6),when with 1-day-OBP,the Kappa values were all more than 0.8,known as high consistency;had the AUC of 0.95-1.00,sensitivity of 100.00% and specificity of 89.54%-99.37% in WCH,the Kappa values of daytime ABPM were all more than 0.6,known as high consistency.
Conclusions
If limited by options, 1-day-OBP could be used instead of 3-day-OBP for detection of WCH or exclusion of MH yet with less accuracy; 24 hours or daytime ABPM instead of either time of ABPM was reliable.
10. Treatment of postprandial discomfort syndrome in the elderly: a multi-centered prospective randomized controlled clinical study
Gangshi WANG ; Le XU ; Hongtan CHEN ; Liping SHI ; Minjing HUANG ; Ling XI ; Lishu XU ; Fen WANG ; Hongyi LI ; Shu LI ; Yijun ZHANG ; Shiyun TAN ; Rutao HONG ; Nonghua LYU ; Mei YE ; Huatian GAN ; Miao LIU ; Benyan WU
Chinese Journal of Internal Medicine 2020;59(2):117-123
Objective:
To evaluate the efficacy and safety of Oryz-Aspergillus enzyme and pancreatin tablets (Combizym®) in the treatment of postprandial distress syndrome (PDS) in the elderly, compared with gastrointestinal motility drugs.
Methods:
A prospective randomized controlled trial was designed and registered in the China Clinical Trials Registry (ChiCTR-IPR-16008185). The elderly patients with PDS were randomly divided into three groups, including Mosapride group with Mosapride citrate tablets 5 mg 3 times per day for 2 weeks; Combizym® group with Combizym tablets 244 mg 3 times per day for 2 weeks; combined treatment group with both drugs and same doses for 2 weeks. The modified Nepean dyspepsia index (NDSI) score, discomfort intensity score and PDS score were calculated on patients before treatment, at the end of first and second week of treatment, as well as 4 weeks after treatment finished, respectively. Adverse effects were evaluated.
Results:
A total of 323 patients from 16 tertiary hospitals in China were enrolled in this study. Among them, 105 patients were in Mosapride group, 109 in Combizym® group and 109 in combined treatment group. There were 148 males (45.8%) and 175 females (54.2%) with median age 71.4±9.0 years (60-100 years). Baseline characteristics of three groups were comparable. After treatment, the NDSI scores in three groups all decreased significantly (


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