Objective To construct a prediction model for the long-term prognosis of elderly pa-tients heart failure with preserved ejection fraction(HFpEF)based on two-dimensional speckle tracking technology.Methods A total of 312 elderly HFpEF patients admitted in our hospital from January 2017 to December 2018 were prospectively enrolled,and then randomly divided into a training set(218 cases)and a validation set(94 cases)in a ratio of 7∶3.After 5 years of follow-up,they were divided into a death group(n=128)and a survival group(n=184)according to having experienced cardiovascular death events or not.The main clinical characteristics were com-pared between the two groups,and the risk factors for cardiovascular death events were analyzed.A clinical prediction model was constructed based on the relevant risk factors with R4.0.3 statisti-cal software.Results The age,age ≥80 years,atrial fibrillation,chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD),and early strain rate of global systole(GSRs)in the death group were signifi-cantly higher than those in the survival group,with statistical significances[(76.68±8.73)years vs(70.98±7.74)years,P＜0.01;34.4％vs 20.7％,P＜0.01;25.0％vs 11.4％,P＜0.01;26.6％vs 9.2％,P＜0.01;(-0.84±0.24)/s vs(-1.24±0.31)/s,P＜0.01].Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age ≥80 years,atrial fibrillation,COPD and GSRs＞-1.035 1/s were inde-pendent risk factors for cardiovascular death events(RR=2.196,95％CI:1.217-3.962,P=0.009;RR=2.242,95％CI:1.136-4.424,P=0.020;RR=3.631,95％CI:1.787-7.377,P=0.000;RR=6.199,95％CI:3.624-10.602,P=0.000).The AUC value of the training set was 0.822(95％CI:0.765-0.879),and that of the validation set was 0.790(95％CI:0.698-0.882).Conclusion Our constructed nomogram prediction model has high predictive value and reliability in predicting cardiovascular death events.

This study was performed to determine the metabolic profile of four amide synthetic cannabinoids that recently abused, i.e., ADB-4en-PINACA, 4CN-CUMYL-BUTINACA, 5F-EMB-PICA and 4F-MDMB-BUTICA, in human liver microsomes (HLMs). The four amide synthetic cannabinoids were added to the microsomal incubation model, being incubated for 10 min, 60 min or 3 h to simulate human hepatic metabolism.Liquid chromatography quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometry (LC-QTOF-MS) analytical instrument was employed to determine and speculate the structure of phase I metabolites and their possible metabolic pathways.The results showed that there were 27 phase I metabolic pathways for the four amide synthetic cannabinoids, including hydroxylation, carboxylation, N-dealkylation and ester hydrolysis, with the main phase I metabolic pathways of ester hydrolysis, dihydrodiol (pentenyl tail), oxidative defluorination to carboxylic acid, monohydroxylation (alkyl side chain or indole/indazole ring) and N-dealkylation.The results of this study may provide potential detection markers for forensic identification and sewage abuse assessment of the four amide synthetic cannabinoids.