Objective To establish a dynamic prediction model of fatal massive hemorrhage in trauma based on the vital signs time series data and machine learning algorithms.Methods Retrospectively analyze the vital signs time series data of 7522 patients with trauma in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-Ⅳ(MIMIC-Ⅳ)database from 2008 to 2019.According to the occurrence of posttraumatic fatal massive hemorrhage,the patients were divided into two groups:fatal massive hemorrhage group(n=283)and non-fatal massive hemorrhage group(n=7239).Six machine learning algorithms,including logistic regression(LR),support vector machine(SVM),random forests(RF),adaptive boosting(AdaBoost),gated recurrent unit(GRU),and GRU-D were used to develop a dynamic prediction models of fatal massive hemorrhage in trauma.The probability of fatal massive hemorrhage in the following 1,2,and 3 h was dynamically predicted.The performance of the models was evaluated by accuracy,sensitivity,specificity,positive predictive value,negative predictive value,Youden index,and area under receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC).The models were externally validated based on the trauma database of the Chinese PLA General Hospital.Results In the MIMIC-Ⅳ database,the set of dynamic prediction models based on the GRU-D algorithm was the best.The AUC for predicting fatal major bleeding in the next 1,2,and 3 h were 0.946±0.029,0.940±0.032,and 0.943±0.034,respectively,and there was no significant difference(P=0.905).In the trauma dataset,GRU-D model achieved the best external validation effect.The AUC for predicting fatal major bleeding in the next 1,2,and 3 h were 0.779±0.013,0.780±0.008,and 0.778±0.009,respectively,and there was no significant difference(P=0.181).This set of models was deployed in a public web calculator and hospital emergency department information system,which is convenient for the public and medical staff to use and validate the model.Conclusion A set of dynamic prediction models has been successfully developed and validated,which is greatly significant for the early diagnosis and dynamic prediction of fatal massive hemorrhage in trauma.

Objective:To investigate the effects of Xiongcan Yishen Formula(XYF)on ferroptosis in mouse TM3 Leydig cells after oxidative stress injury(OSI)induced by H2O2.Methods:An oxidative stress injury model was established in mouse TM3 Leydig cells using H2O2 induction.The modeled TM3 cells were randomly divided into OSI group,XYF group,the ferroptosis inhibitor Ferrostatin-1(F-1)group,and F-1+XYF group,which were respectively intervened with blank serum,20%drug-containing serum,2μmol/L F-1,and2μmol/L F-1+20%drug-containing serum.A control group(normal TM3 cells+blank serum)was also set up.The morphology of cells in each group was observed,and the levels of testosterone,superoxide dismutase(SOD),reactive oxygen spe-cies(ROS),malondialdehyde(MDA),ferritin heavy chain 1(FTH1),solute carrier family 7 member 11(SLC7A11),glutathione(GSH),glutathione peroxidase 4(GPX4),fatty acid CoA ligase 4(FACL4),total iron ions,and ferrous ions were detected.Re-sults:Compared with the model group,the control group showed significantly decreased expression of ROS,MDA,FACL4,total iron,and ferrous ions(P<0.05),and significantly increased levels of testosterone,SOD,GSH,FTH1,SLC7A11,and GPX4(P<0.05).The male silkworm kidney-tonifying formula group significantly promoted testosterone secretion by TM3 cells and upregulated the expression of FTH1,SLC7A11,GPX4,GSH,and SOD in TM3 cells(P<0.05),while significantly downregulating ROS,MDA,FACL4,total iron ions,and ferrous ions(P<0.05).Conclusion:Following H2O2 exposure,oxidative stress can induce ferroptosis in mouse TM3 Leydig cells.XYF can antagonize OSI and ferroptosis in TM3 cells by activating the SLC7A11/GSH/GPX4 axis,which may underlie the mechanism of XYF in the treatment of male late-onset hypogonadism.

Astragalus, which was first documented in Shennong Bencao Jing, is the dried root of Astragalus membranaceus (Fisch.) Bge. or Astragalus membranaceus (Fisch.) Bge. var. mongholicus (Bge.) Hsiao. The active ingredients astragalus membranaceus saponins (AMS), astragalus polysaccharides (APS) and astragalus flavonoids (AFS) have pharmacological effects such as anti-tumor properties, lowering blood sugar, regulating lipid metabolism, cardiovascular protection, anti-oxidation, bone protection, anti-fibrosis, etc. Fibrosis affects almost all organs, particularly vital organs such as the lungs, liver, heart and kidneys. The primary pathological changes of fibrosis involve abnormal increase of myofibroblasts and excessive deposition of extracellular matrix (ECM) components, which lead to the formation of scar tissue, ultimately resulting in fibrosis and even functional loss or failure of organs, which seriously threatens human health and life. Recent, studies have shown that Astragalus membranaceus has a good therapetuic effect on organ fibrosis. This article reviews the current advances of Astragalus in the prevention and treatment of fibrosis of lungs, liver, heart, kidneys and other important organs.

Seventeen minor triterpenoid acids (1-17) were isolated from an aqueous decoction of Uncaria rhynchophylla by a combinatory application of column chromatography using multiple stationary phases, including macroporous adsorbent resin, MCI resin, Sephadex LH-20, Toyopearl HW-40C, silica gel, and C18 reversed phase silica gel, combined with separation techniques of flash chromatography (FC) and high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Their structures were determined by analysis of HR-ESI-MS, UV, CD, and IR as well as 1D and 2D NMR spectroscopic data, of which eight new compounds (1-8) are named successively uncarinic acids Q-X, while the structures of 2 and 7 were confirmed by single crystal X-ray diffraction. In the in vitro assays, 27-hydroxyolean-12-en-28-oic acid (17) inhibited TGF-β-induced HSC-T6 cell activation at the concentration of 5 μmol·L^-1.

Objective: To analyze the association between exposure patterns of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and anxiety symptom trajectories in medical college students. Methods: A survey was conducted on first-year students from Anhui Medical College and Anqing Medical College, using the Childhood Abuse Questionnaire, Family Disability Questionnaire, Childhood Adverse Social Experience Item, and Anxiety Self Rating Scale. The baseline survey was conducted from November to December 2019, and two follow-up visits were conducted once every six months until November to December 2020. The latent class analysis (LCA) was used to analyze the exposure patterns of ACEs. The latent class growth analysis (LCGA) was used to analyze the development trajectory of anxiety symptoms. The multiple logistic regression model was used to analyze the correlation between different exposure patterns of ACEs and the trajectory of anxiety symptom trajectories. Results: A total of 3 662 college students aged (19.2±1.0) were surveyed. The LCA showed that the exposure patterns of ACEs could be divided into the "high ACEs" group (13.4%), "high neglect/emotional abuse" group (25.7%), "high family dysfunction" group (6.9%), "high neglect" group (27.1%), and "low ACEs" group (26.3%). The LCGA divided anxiety trajectories into four groups: "high anxiety decline" (7.1%),"anxiety increase "(4.1%), "moderate anxiety"(52.9%), and "low anxiety"(35.9%). Using the low ACEs group as a reference group, compared with the low anxiety trajectory, the high ACEs group, high neglect/emotional abuse group, high family dysfunction group, high neglect group, and medium to high-level anxiety trajectory were all associated with an increased risk (P<0.05). Conclusion: There is heterogeneity in ACEs exposure patterns among medical college students, and ACEs exposure patterns are important influencing factors for anxiety symptom trajectories.
Humans ; Adverse Childhood Experiences ; Anxiety/epidemiology* ; Child Abuse/psychology* ; Students/psychology* ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Adolescent ; Young Adult

Objective: To forecast mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes, and to simulate the impact of controlling risk factors by 2030 in China. Methods: We simulated the burden of disease from diabetes in six scenarios according to the development goals of risk factors control by the WHO and Chinese government. Based on the theory of comparative risk assessment and the estimates of the burden of disease for China from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015, we used the proportional change model to project the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes under different scenarios of risk factors control in 2030. Results: If the trends in exposures to risk factors from 1990 to 2015 continued. Mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes would increase to 32.57/100 000, 17.32/100 000, and 0.84% by 2030, respectively. During that time, mortality, age-standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality for males would all be higher than for females. If the goals of controlling risk factors were all achieved, the number of deaths from diabetes in 2030 would decrease by 62.10% compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends in exposure to risk factors, and the probability of premature mortality would drop to 0.29%. If only the exposure to a single risk factor were achieved by 2030, high fasting plasma glucose control would have the greatest impact on diabetes, resulting in a 56.00% reduction in deaths compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends, followed by high BMI (4.92%), smoking (0.65%), and low physical activity (0.53%). Conclusions: Risk factors control plays an important role in reducing the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes. We suggest taking comprehensive measures to control relevant risk factors for certain populations and regions, to achieve the goal of reducing the burden of disease from diabetes as expected.
Male ; Female ; Humans ; Risk Factors ; Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology* ; Mortality, Premature ; Smoking ; Cost of Illness ; China/epidemiology* ; Global Burden of Disease

This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of various Chinese patent medicines in the treatment of inflammatory response in diabetic nephropathy(DN) based on network Meta-analysis. Randomized controlled trial(RCT) of oral Chinese patent medicines for improving inflammatory response in patients with DN was retrieved from CNKI, Wanfang, VIP, SinoMed, PubMed, Cochrane Library, EMbase, Web of Science, and other databases from database inception to October 2022. All investigators independently screened the literature, extracted data, and evaluated the quality. Stata 16.0 software and RevMan 5.4.1 were used to analyze the data of the literature that met the quality standards. Finally, 53 RCTs were included, involving 6 Chinese patent medicines. The total sample size was 4 891 cases, including 2 449 cases in the test group and 2 442 cases in the control group. The network Meta-analysis showed that(1) in terms of reducing TNF-α, the top 3 optimal interventions according to the surface under the cumulative ranking curve(SUCRA) were Shenshuaining Capsules/Granules/Tablets + conventional western medicine, Jinshuibao Capsules + conventional western medicine, and Niaoduqing Granules + conventional western medicine.(2) In terms of reducing hs-CRP, the top 3 optimal interventions according to SUCRA were Bailing Capsules + conventional western medicine, Tripterygium Glycosides Tablets + conventional western medicine, and Shenshuaining Capsules/Granules/Tablets + conventional western medicine.(3) In terms of reducing IL-6, the top 3 optimal interventions according to SUCRA were Bailing Capsules + conventional western medicine, Tripterygium Glycosides Tablets + conventional western medicine, and Jinshuibao Capsules + conventional western medicine.(4) In terms of reducing UAER, the top 3 optimal interventions according to SUCRA were Shenshuaining Capsules/Granules/Tablets + conventional western medicine, Huangkui Capsules + conventional western medicine, and Jinshuibao Capsules + conventional western medicine.(5) In terms of reducing Scr, the top 3 optimal interventions according to SUCRA were Jinshuibao Capsules + conventional western medicine, Niaoduqing Granules + conventional wes-tern medicine, and Tripterygium Glycosides Tablets + conventional western medicine.(6) In terms of reducing BUN, the first 3 optimal interventions according to SUCRA were Niaoduqing Granules + conventional western medicine, Tripterygium Glycosides Tablets + conventional western medicine, and Huangkui Capsules + conventional western medicine.(7) In terms of improving the clinical total effective rate, the first 3 optimal interventions according to SUCRA were Jinshuibao Capsules + conventional western medicine, Niaoduqing Granu-les + conventional western medicine, and Huangkui Capsules + conventional western medicine. The results showed that the combination of western medicine and Chinese patent medicine could reduce the expression of serum inflammatory factors TNF-α, hs-CRP, and IL-6 and inhibit the inflammatory response. The combination of western medicine and Chinese patent medicine was superior to western medicine alone in reducing Scr, BUN, and UAER, and improving the total effective rate of treatment. Due to the limitation of the quantity and quality of literature included, the above conclusions need to be validated by more high-quality studies.
Humans ; Tumor Necrosis Factor-alpha ; Network Meta-Analysis ; Nonprescription Drugs ; Diabetic Nephropathies/drug therapy* ; C-Reactive Protein ; Capsules ; Interleukin-6 ; Drugs, Chinese Herbal/therapeutic use* ; Glycosides ; Tablets ; Diabetes Mellitus/drug therapy*

Five new megastigmanes (1-5) were isolated from a decoction of Uncaria rhynchophylla by separation techniques of column chromatography using a combination of multiple stationary phases, including macroporous adsorbent resin, MCI resin, silica gel, Sephadex LH-20, and Toyopearl HW-40F, and reversed phase HPLC. Their structures were characterized by spectroscopic data analysis of HR-ESI-MS, NMR, and CD, in combination with Mosher's mothed as well as ECD and NMR calculations. The new compounds were named uncarphyllonone A (1), uncarphyllonols A (2) and B (3), and uncarphabscisic acids A (4) and B (5). Although the structures of 3 and 4 were previously reported, the reported NMR spectroscopic data were incorrect or do not support the assigned structures in literatures. This is also the first report of discovery of new megastigmane natural products from the Uncaria genus.

Objective: Predictive models were used to evaluate the impact of common risk factors on the number of cardio-cerebrovascular deaths and the probability of premature death. Methods: Using the data for China estimated by the Global Burden of Disease study 2015 (GBD 2015), we calculated the population attribution fraction (PAF) of risk factors. The proportional change model was used to estimate the number of unattributable deaths by 2030, and to predict the number of deaths, mortality, standardized mortality and probability of premature death by 2030. Results: According to the natural change trend of risk factors from 1990 to 2015, the number of deaths and mortality would reach 6.12 million and 428.53/100 000 by 2030, with an increase of 59.92% and 52.87%. By 2030, the probability of premature death from cardio-cerebrovascular diseases among Chinese aged 30-70 years old would continue to decline, from 11.43% to 11.28% for men, and from 5.79% to 4.43% for women. If the goals of all included risk factors were reached by 2030, 2 289 200 cardio-cerebrovascular deaths would be avoided. If only the exposure to a single risk factor was achieved by 2030, blood pressure, total cholesterol, and fine particulate matter exposure were the three most important factors affecting cardio-cerebrovascular deaths, which would reduce 1 332 800, 609 100 and 306 800 deaths, respectively. Among the involved risk factors, the control of blood pressure would mostly decrease the number of deaths due to ischemic heart disease and hemorrhagic stroke, about 677 300 and 391 100 deaths, accordingly. Conclusion: The control of risk factors is of great significance in reducing deaths and probability of premature death due to cardio-cerebrovascular diseases. If the control targets of all risk factors could be achieved by 2030, the burden of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases would be reduced greatly.
Adult ; Aged ; Blood Pressure ; Cerebrovascular Disorders/epidemiology* ; China/epidemiology* ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Mortality, Premature ; Risk Factors

Objective: To predict the number of deaths, standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality caused by malignant cancer in the context of risk factor control at different levels in China in 2030, and assess the possibility of achieving the target of reducing the probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer. Methods: According to the risk factor control standard for malignant cancer used both at home and abroad, the results of China from Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 were used to calculate the population attributable fraction of the risk factors. Based on the comparative risk assessment theory, the deaths of malignant cancer were classified as attributable deaths and un-attributable deaths. Proportional change model was used to predict risk factor exposure and un-attributable deaths of malignant cancer in the future, then the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer in 2030 was estimated. Data analyses were performed by using software R 3.6.1. Results: If the risk factor exposure level during 1990-2015 remains, the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer would increase to 3.62 million, 153.96/100 000 and 8.92% by 2030, respectively. If the risk factor exposure control level meets the requirement, the probability of premature mortality from cancer in people aged 30-70 years would drop to 7.57% by 2030. Conclusions: The control of risk factor exposure will play an important role in reducing deaths, standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer. But more efforts are needed to achieve the goals of Health China Action.
Adult ; Aged ; China/epidemiology* ; Cost of Illness ; Humans ; Middle Aged ; Mortality, Premature ; Neoplasms/epidemiology* ; Risk Factors