INTRODUCTION: Ultrasonography (US) is the current standard of care for imaging surveillance in patients at risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has been explored as an alternative, given the higher sensitivity of MRI, although this comes at a higher cost. We performed a cost-effective analysis comparing US and dual-sequence non-contrast-enhanced MRI (NCEMRI) for HCC surveillance in the local setting. METHODS: Cost-effectiveness analysis of no surveillance, US surveillance and NCEMRI surveillance was performed using Markov modelling and microsimulation. At-risk patient cohort was simulated and followed up for 40 years to estimate the patients' disease status, direct medical costs and effectiveness. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio were calculated. RESULTS: Exactly 482,000 patients with an average age of 40 years were simulated and followed up for 40 years. The average total costs and QALYs for the three scenarios - no surveillance, US surveillance and NCEMRI surveillance - were SGD 1,193/7.460 QALYs, SGD 8,099/11.195 QALYs and SGD 9,720/11.366 QALYs, respectively. CONCLUSION Despite NCEMRI having a superior diagnostic accuracy, it is a less cost-effective strategy than US for HCC surveillance in the general at-risk population. Future local cost-effectiveness analyses should include stratifying surveillance methods with a variety of imaging techniques (US, NCEMRI, contrast-enhanced MRI) based on patients' risk profiles.
Humans ; Adult ; Carcinoma, Hepatocellular/diagnostic imaging* ; Liver Neoplasms/diagnostic imaging* ; Cost-Effectiveness Analysis ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Magnetic Resonance Imaging/methods*

BACKGROUND: Epilepsy accounts for a significant portion of the global disease burden. However, little is known about the disease burden of epilepsy in China and its provinces. METHODS: We assessed the burden of epilepsy in China and its provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions from 1990 to 2019. Burden was measured as incidence, prevalence, deaths, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), by age, sex, year, and province. We used the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) to determine the association between the provincial development level and age-standardized DALY rates of epilepsy from 1990 to 2019. RESULTS: In 2019, epilepsy caused 1367.51 thousand (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 979.92-1837.61 thousand) DALYs, and the age-standardized DALY rate was 99.77 (95% UI: 71.33-133.52)/100,000. The age-standardized incidence and prevalence rates for epilepsy in China were 24.65/100,000 and 219.69/100,000, increased by 45.00% (95% UI: 8.03-98.74%) and 35.72% (95% UI: 0.47-86.19%) compared with that in 1990, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the proportion of DALY caused by epilepsy in the age group under 25 years steadily decreased. The proportion of DALYs caused by epilepsy in people aged 50 years and over increased from 9.45% and 10.22% in 1990 to 29.01% and 32.72% for male and female individuals in 2019, respectively. The highest age-standardized mortality rates were seen in Tibet (4.26 [95% UI: 1.43-5.66]/100,000), Qinghai (1.80 [95% UI: 1.15-2.36]/100,000), and Yunnan (1.30 [95% UI: 0.88-1.62]/100,000), and the lowest mortality rates were in Guangdong (0.48 [95% UI: 0.39-0.64]/100,000), Zhejiang (0.56 [95% UI: 0.44-0.70]/100,000), and Shanghai (0.57 [95% UI: 0.41-0.73]/100,000). The age-standardized DALY rates across the country and in provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions generally decreased as their SDI increased. CONCLUSIONS The disease burden of epilepsy is still heavy in China, especially in the western provinces. The incidence and prevalence of epilepsy increased between 1990 and 2019, and the burden of epilepsy in the elderly increases gradually. This study provides evidence on epilepsy prevention and care of different regions in China.
Aged ; Humans ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; Global Burden of Disease ; China/epidemiology* ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Cost of Illness ; Epilepsy/epidemiology* ; Prevalence

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to estimate spatiotemporal variations of global heat-related cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: Data on the burden of heat-related CVD were derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were used to quantify heat-induced CVD burden. We calculated the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and DALY rate (ASDR) per 100,000 population to compare this burden across regions. Generalized linear models were applied to evaluate estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) for temporal trends from 1990 to 2019. The correlation between the socio-demographic index (SDI) and age-standardized rate was measured using the Spearman rank test. RESULTS: Heat-induced CVD caused approximately 90 thousand deaths worldwide in 2019. Global ASMR and ASDR of heat-related CVD in 2019 were 1.17 [95% confidence interval ( CI): 0.13-1.98] and 25.59 (95% CI: 2.07-44.17) per 100,000 population, respectively. The burden was significantly increased in middle and low-SDI regions and slightly decreased in high-SDI regions from 1990 to 2019. ASMR showed an upward trend, with the most considerable increase in low-latitude countries. We observed a negative correlation between SDI and EAPC in ASMR ( r _s = -0.57, P < 0.01) and ASDR ( r _s = -0.59, P < 0.01) among 204 countries. CONCLUSION Heat-attributable CVD burden substantially increased in most developing countries and tropical regions.
Humans ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Cardiovascular Diseases/etiology* ; Hot Temperature ; Temperature ; Global Health ; Global Burden of Disease

OBJECTIVES: Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is one of the 3 major eye diseases recognized by WHO to prevent blindness, and which is the main cause of irreversible visual impairment in the elderly. This study aims to analyze the disease epidemiological burden, and provide a theoretical foundation for the prevention and control of AMD in China based on the data in global burden of disease (GBD) 2019. METHODS: The prevalent cases/prevalence, disability-adjusted life year (DALYs)/DALY rate of AMD and socio-demographic index (SDI) for global and China were searched from the GBD 2019 database to analyze the epidemiological trend, age-period-gender trend of AMD in China from 1990 to 2019, and to evaluate the relations between the prevalence and SDI. RESULTS: In 2019, the prevalence of AMD in China was at a high level in the world, and the number of prevalent cases were 1.93 times of that in 1990. The prevalence and DALY rates continued to rise. The age trend of AMD in China was high at the middle of the age stages and low at the two ends, and which was higher in the female than in the male. With the increase of SDI, the prevalence of AMD was increased linearly. CONCLUSIONS The disease burden of AMD in China is increased significantly and is positively correlated with the social development from 1990 to 2019. It is of great significance to study the relationship between epidemilolgical data of AMD and social development level for diagnosis treatment and policy of AMD.
Humans ; Male ; Female ; Aged ; Global Burden of Disease ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Prevalence ; Macular Degeneration/epidemiology* ; China/epidemiology*

BACKGROUND: Stroke is the leading cause of death in China, and predicting the stroke burden could provide essential information guiding the setting of medium- and long-term health policies and priorities. The study aimed to project trends associated with stroke burden in China through 2050, not only in terms of incidence and mortality but also for prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). METHODS: Data on stroke rates in incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs in China between 1990 and 2019 were obtained from a recent Global Burden of Disease study. Demographic-specific trends in rates over time were estimated using three models: the loglinear model, the Lee-Carter model, and a functional time series model. The mean absolute percentage error and the root mean squared error were used for model selection. Projections up to 2050 were estimated using the best fitting model. United Nations population data were used to project the absolute numbers through 2050. RESULTS: From 2019 to 2050, the crude rates for all measures of the stroke burden are projected to increase continuously among both men and women. We project that compared with those in 2019, the incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs because of stroke in China in 2050 will increase by 55.58%, 119.16%, 72.15%, and 20.04%, respectively; the corresponding increases in number were 2.19, 34.27, 1.58, and 9.21 million. The age-standardized rate is projected to substantially decline for incidence (8.94%), death (40.37%), and DALYs (43.47%), but the age-standardized prevalence rate is predicted to increase by 10.82%. By 2050, the burden of stroke among the population aged ≥65 years will increase significantly: by 104.70% for incidence, by 218.48% for prevalence, by 100.00% for death, and by 58.93% for DALYs. CONCLUSIONS With the aging population in China increasing over the next three decades, the burden of stroke will be markedly increased. Continuous efforts are needed to improve stroke health care and secondary prevention, especially for older adults.
Male ; Humans ; Female ; Aged ; Cost of Illness ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Stroke/epidemiology* ; Incidence ; Prevalence ; China/epidemiology*

Global Burden of Disease ; Risk Factors ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years

BACKGROUND: There is limited data to comprehensively evaluate the epidemiological characteristics of multiple myeloma (MM) in China; therefore, this study determined the characteristics of the disease burden of MM at national and provincial levels in China. METHODS: The burden of MM, including incidence, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), with a 95% uncertainty interval (UI), was determined in China following the general analytical strategy used in the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019. The trends in the burden of MM from 1990 to 2019 were also evaluated. RESULTS: There were an estimated 347.45 thousand DALYs with an age-standardized DALY rate of 17.05 (95% UI, 12.31-20.77) per 100,000 in 2019. The estimated number of incident case and deaths of MM were 18,793 and 13,421, with age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of 0.93 (95% UI, 0.67-1.15) and 0.67 (95% UI, 0.50-0.82) per 100,000, respectively. The age-specific DALY rates per 100,000 increased to more than 10.00 in the 40 to 44 years age group reaching a peak (93.82) in the 70 to 74 years age group. Males had a higher burden than females, with approximately 1.5- to 2.0-fold sex difference in age-specific DALY rates in all age groups. From 1990 to 2019, the DALYs of MM increased 134%, from 148,479 in 1990 to 347,453 in 2019. CONCLUSION The burden of MM has doubled over the last three decades, which highlights the need to establish effective disease prevention and control strategies at both the national and provincial levels.
Humans ; Male ; Female ; Adult ; Aged ; Global Burden of Disease ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Multiple Myeloma/epidemiology* ; Global Health ; Incidence ; Prevalence ; Risk Factors ; China/epidemiology*

BACKGROUND: Understanding the changing profiles of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and modifiable risk factors is essential for CVD prevention and control. We aimed to report the comprehensive trends in CVD and risk factors in China from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: Data on the incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of total CVD and its 11 subtypes for China were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The CVD burden attributable to 12 risk factors was also retrieved. A secondary analysis was conducted to summarize the leading causes of CVD burden and attributable risk factors. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the number of CVD incidence, death, and DALYs considerably increased by 132.8%, 89.1%, and 52.6%, respectively. Stroke, ischemic heart disease, and hypertensive heart disease accounted for over 95.0% of CVD deaths in 2019 and remained the top three causes during the past 30 years. Between 1990 and 2019, the age-standardized rate of stroke decreased significantly (percentage of decreased incidence: -9.3%; death: -39.8%; DALYs: -41.6%), while the rate of ischemic heart disease increased (percentage of increased incidence: 11.5%; death: 17.6%; DALYs: 2.2%). High systolic blood pressure, unhealthy diet, tobacco, and air pollution continued to be the major contributors to CVD deaths and DALYs (attributing to over 70% of the CVD burden), and the high body mass index (BMI)-associated CVD burden had the largest increase between 1990 and 2019. CONCLUSIONS The significant increases in the number of CVD incident cases, deaths, and DALYs suggest that the CVD burden is still a concern. Intensified strategies and policies are needed to maintain promising progress in stroke and to reduce the escalating burden of ischemic heart disease. The CVD burden attributable to risk factors has not yet made adequate achievements; even worse, high BMI has contributed to the increasing CVD burden.
Humans ; Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology* ; Global Burden of Disease ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Risk Factors ; Myocardial Ischemia/epidemiology* ; Stroke/epidemiology*

BACKGROUND: Atherosclerosis-related diseases represent significant health issues among adults globally. Despite their widespread impact, comprehensive data concerning the global and national burden and trends of these diseases remain sparse. Our objective is to examine the trends in the burden of atherosclerosis among adults from 1990 to 2019 at both global and national levels. METHODS: We reported the average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) in prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of atherosclerosis-related diseases (ischemic heart disease [IHD], ischemic stroke, and peripheral arterial disease [PAD]) at the global and national levels among individuals based on a trend analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) 2019. We further analyzed these global trends as a function of age, gender, and the social development index. We also used joinpoint regression analysis to identify the year with the most substantial changes in global trends. RESULTS: Globally, the AAPC of IHD incidence rose from 1990 to 2019 (0.20; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.12-0.28), with substantial surges in 1995, 2001, 2005, 2010, and 2017. Conversely, AAPC of IHD mortality rates exhibited a different trend until a rise in 2014. The AAPC of incidence rates of ischemic stroke and PAD also escalated during the same period, with respective 0.43 (95% CI, 0.39-0.48) and 0.13 (95% CI, 0.06-0.21). For ischemic stroke, both incidence and mortality soared in 2014, while PAD incidence declined in 1994 and 1998, then sharply climbed in 2016. Nationally, the Northern Mariana Islands experienced the steepest increase in IHD and PAD incidence and mortality between 1990 and 2019. China saw a significant rise in ischemic stroke incidence, whereas the highest mortality rate increase occurred in Timor-Leste. By sociodemographic index (SDI) quintile, low-middle-, middle-, and high-middle-SDI countries all showed upward trends in IHD, ischemic stroke, and PAD incidence. Simultaneously, IHD and ischemic stroke mortality rates, as well as DALYs, dropped in the low-, high-middle-, and high-SDI nations. However, PAD mortality rates and DALYs saw an uptick across all SDI quintiles. Regarding age demographics, a global decrease in the AAPC IHD incidence as noted in individuals above 55 years old, in contrast to an increase in the 20-55 age group during this period. AAPC of mortality rates for IHD, ischemic stroke, and PAD decreased across all ages. The AAPC showed an increase in IHD incidence in both genders. Conversely, IHD's DALYs saw a reduction in both males and females. Ischemic stroke patterns mirrored these trends, whereas all measures for PAD exhibited growth for both sexes. CONCLUSIONS From 1990 to 2019, there was an overall increasing trend in the global incidence of all three clinical manifestations of atherosclerosis. Between 1990 and 2019, both the mortality rate and DALYs for IHD and ischemic stroke declined across all age groups. Overall, the burden of atherosclerosis-related diseases has not significantly decreased and even shows signs of trending upward. These findings strongly suggest that despite some progress made, efforts to control atherosclerosis diseases globally need to be intensified.
Adult ; Humans ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Global Burden of Disease ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Atherosclerosis/epidemiology* ; Myocardial Ischemia/epidemiology* ; Incidence ; Ischemic Stroke

BACKGROUND: Hypertensive heart disease (HHD) poses a public health challenge, but data on its burden and trends among older adults are scarce. This study aimed to identify trends in the burden of HHD among older adults between 1990 and 2019 at the global, regional, and national levels. METHODS: Using the Global Burden of Diseases study 2019 data, we assessed HHD prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rates for individuals aged 60-89 years at the global, regional, and national levels and estimated their average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) between 1990 and 2019 using joinpoint regression analysis. RESULTS: In 2019, there were 14.35 million HHD prevalent cases, 0.85 million deaths, and 14.56 million DALYs in older adults. Between 1990 and 2019, the prevalence of HHD increased globally {AAPC, 0.38 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.36, 0.41)} with decreases observed in mortality (AAPC, -0.83 [95% CI, -0.99, -0.66]) and the DALY rate (AAPC, -1.03 [95% CI, -1.19, -0.87]). This overall global trend pattern was essentially maintained for sex, age group, and sociodemographic index (SDI) quintile except for non-significant changes in the prevalence of HHD in those aged 70-74 years and in the middle SDI quintile. Notably, males had a higher HHD prevalence rate. However, HHD-related mortality and the DALY rate were higher in females. The middle SDI quintile experienced the largest decreases in mortality and the DALY rate, with a non-significant decline in prevalence between 1990 and 2019. There were significant discrepancies in the HHD burden and its trends across regions and countries. CONCLUSIONS In the past three decades, there has been an overall increasing trend in the prevalence of HHD among older adults worldwide despite decreasing trends in mortality and the DALY rate. Better management of hypertension, and prevention and control of HHD are needed in older adults.
Male ; Female ; Humans ; Aged ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Global Burden of Disease ; Prevalence ; Hypertension/epidemiology* ; Heart Diseases ; Incidence