AIM:To investigate the influencing factors of dry eye in elderly people aged over 60 years, and to construct a risk nomogram prediction model, so as to provide a reference for the identification of high-risk individuals and the development of preventive strategies.METHODS:A convenience sampling method was used to select 301 people aged over 60 years who attended the ophthalmology outpatient clinic or were hospitalized at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University between July 2023 and December 2023. They were divided into a dry eye group(n=173)and a non-dry eye group(n=128)based on the presence or absence of dry eye. Data from the two groups were compared and a risk prediction model was constructed.RESULTS:Gender, hypertension, meibomian gland dysfunction, frequent use of eye drops, frequent use of electronic products, and frequent exposure to dry environments were significant influencing factors for the occurrence of dry eye in people aged over 60 years(all P<0.05). The nomogram prediction model demonstrated excellent discrimination(AUC=0.86, 95% CI: 0.81-0.90). The calibration curve showed good fit with the ideal curve, indicating high predictive accuracy. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test yielded a P-value of 0.424. The sensitivity was 73% and the specificity was 86%.CONCLUSION:The nomogram predictive model for the risk of dry eye in elderly people aged over 60 years constructed in this study showed good discrimination and calibration. It can serve as an intuitive and effective clinical risk assessment tool, providing a basis for the early identification of high-risk populations and the development of individualized intervention strategies.

Objective The family reconstruction method was used to establish paternity index algorithm for uncle-nephew relationships between two full sibling uncles and one nephew.Methods According to Mendelian genetic law,the family of two known full-sib uncles and one nephew were reconstructed according to the relationship between uncle and nephew,and the test hypothesis was established between two full sibling uncles and one nephew as the uncle-nephew relationship and unrelated individuals,and the paternity index of the uncle-nephew relationship between two full sibling uncles and one nephew was calculated by using Excel.Results Among the 99 genotypic combinations between two full sibling uncles and one nephew,91 of which were consistent with the genetic rules of uncle-nephew relationships,while 8 of which were not.a stepwise mutation model was introduced in the situations that do not conform to the genetic laws of uncle-nephew relationships.The paternity index of uncle-nephew relationship between two full sibling uncles and one nephew can be calculated using Excel.Conclusion The uncle-nephew testing involved by two full sibling uncles makes use of the role of the assistant,and the paternity index of the obtained uncle-nephew relationship is higher than that between two known full-siblings alone and their nephew,which has a good practical value in helping the appraiser to draw a clear appraisal opinion.