1.Comparison of initiation of antihypertensive therapy strategies for primary preven-tion of cardiovascular diseases in Chinese population:A decision-analytic Markov modelling study
Tianjing ZHOU ; Qiuping LIU ; Minglu ZHANG ; Xiaofei LIU ; Jiali KANG ; Peng SHEN ; Hongbo LIN ; Xun TANG ; Pei GAO
Journal of Peking University(Health Sciences) 2024;56(3):441-447
Objective:To evaluate the health benefits and intervention efficiency of different strategies of initiating antihypertensive therapy for the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases in a community-based Chinese population from the Chinese electronic health records research in Yinzhou(CHERRY)study.Methods:A decision-analytic Markov model was used to simulate and compare different antihy-pertensive initiation strategies,including:Strategy 1,initiation of antihypertensive therapy for Chinese adults with systolic blood pressure(SBP)≥140 mmHg(2020 Chinese guideline on the primary preven-tion of cardiovascular diseases);Strategy 2,initiation of antihypertensive therapy for Chinese adults with SBP≥130 mmHg;Strategy 3,initiation of antihypertensive therapy for Chinese adults with SBP ≥140 mmHg,or with SBP between 130 and 140 mmHg and at high risk of cardiovascular diseases(2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline for the prevention,detection,evaluation,and management of high blood pressure in adults);Strategy 4,initiation of antihypertensive therapy for Chinese adults with SBP≥ 160 mmHg,or with SBP between 140 and 160 mmHg and at high risk of car-diovascular diseases(2019 United Kingdom National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guideline for the hypertension in adults:Diagnosis and management).The high 10-year cardiovascular risk was de-fined as the predicted risk over 10%based on the 2019 World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts.Different strategies were simulated by the Markov model for ten years(cycles),with parame-ters mainly from the CHERRY study or published literature.After ten cycles of simulation,the numbers of quality-adjusted life years(QALY),cardiovascular events and all-cause deaths were calculated to evaluate the health benefits of each strategy,and the numbers needed to treat(NNT)for each cardiovas-cular event or all-cause death could be prevented were calculated to assess the intervention efficiency.One-way sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty of incidence rates of cardiovascular disease and probabilis-tic sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty of hazard ratios of interventions were conducted.Results:A to-tal of 213 987 Chinese adults aged 35-79 years without cardiovascular diseases were included.Com-pared with strategy 1,the number of cardiovascular events that could be prevented in strategy 2 increased by 666(95%UI:334-975),while the NNT per cardiovascular event prevented increased by 10(95%UI:7-20).In contrast to strategy 1,the number of cardiovascular events that could be prevented in strategy 3 increased by 388(95%UI:194-569),and the NNT per cardiovascular event prevented decreased by 6(95%UI:4-12),suggesting that strategy 3 had better health benefits and intervention efficiency.Compared to strategy 1,although the number of cardiovascular events that could be prevented decreased by 193(95%UI:98-281)in strategy 4,the NNT per cardiovascular event prevented decreased by 18(95%UI:13-37)with better efficiency.The results were consistent in the sensitivity analyses.Conclusion:When initiating antihypertensive therapy in an economically developed area of China,the strategy combined with cardiovascular risk assessment is more efficient than those purely based on the SBP threshold.The cardiovascular risk assessment strategy with different SBP thresholds is suggested to balance health benefits and intervention efficiency in diverse populations.
2.Comparison of aspirin treatment strategies for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases: A decision-analytic Markov modelling study.
Ming Lu ZHANG ; Qiu Ping LIU ; Chao GONG ; Jia Min WANG ; Tian Jing ZHOU ; Xiao Fei LIU ; Peng SHEN ; Hong Bo LIN ; Xun TANG ; Pei GAO
Journal of Peking University(Health Sciences) 2023;55(3):480-487
OBJECTIVE:
To compare the expected population impact of benefit and risk of aspirin treatment strategies for the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases recommended by different guidelines in the Chinese Electronic Health Records Research in Yinzhou (CHERRY) study.
METHODS:
A decision-analytic Markov model was used to simulate and compare different strategies of aspirin treatment, including: Strategy ①: Aspirin treatment for Chinese adults aged 40-69 years with a high 10-year cardiovascular risk, recommended by the 2020 Chinese Guideline on the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Diseases; Strategy ②: Aspirin treatment for Chinese adults aged 40-59 years with a high 10-year cardiovascular risk, recommended by the 2022 United States Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement on Aspirin Use to Prevent Cardiovascular Disease; Strategy ③: Aspirin treatment for Chinese adults aged 40-69 years with a high 10-year cardiovascular risk and blood pressure well-controlled (< 150/90 mmHg), recommended by the 2019 Guideline on the Assessment and Management of Cardio-vascular Risk in China. The high 10-year cardiovascular risk was defined as the 10-year predicted risk over 10% based on the 2019 World Health Organization non-laboratory model. The Markov model simulated different strategies for ten years (cycles) with parameters mainly from the CHERRY study or published literature. Quality-adjusted life year (QALY) and the number needed to treat (NNT) for each ischemic event (including myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke) were calculated to assess the effectiveness of the different strategies. The number needed to harm (NNH) for each bleeding event (including hemorrhagic stroke and gastrointestinal bleeding) was calculated to assess the safety. The NNT for each net benefit (i.e., the difference of the number of ischemic events could be prevented and the number of bleeding events would be added) was also calculated. One-way sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty of the incidence rate of cardiovascular diseases and probabilistic sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty of hazard ratios of interventions were conducted.
RESULTS:
A total of 212 153 Chinese adults, were included in this study. The number of people who were recommended for aspirin treatment Strategies ①-③ was 34 235, 2 813, and 25 111, respectively. The Strategy ③ could gain the most QALY of 403 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 222-511] years. Compared with Strategy ①, Strategy ③ had similar efficiency but better safety, with the extra NNT of 4 (95%UI: 3-4) and NNH of 39 (95%UI: 19-132). The NNT per net benefit was 131 (95%UI: 102-239) for Strategy ①, 256 (95%UI: 181-737) for Strategy ②, and 132 (95%UI: 104-232) for Strategy ③, making Strategy ③ the most favorable option with a better QALY and safety, along with similar efficiency in terms of net benefit. The results were consistent in the sensitivity analyses.
CONCLUSION
The aspirin treatment strategies recommended by the updated guidelines on the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases showed a net benefit for high-risk Chinese adults from developed areas. However, to balance effectiveness and safety, aspirin is suggested to be used for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases with consideration for blood pressure control, resulting in better intervention efficiency.
Adult
;
Humans
;
Aspirin/therapeutic use*
;
Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology*
;
Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage
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Myocardial Infarction/prevention & control*
;
Primary Prevention/methods*
;
Middle Aged
;
Aged
3.Overcoming chemoresistance in non-angiogenic colorectal cancer by metformin via inhibiting endothelial apoptosis and vascular immaturity
Guang-Yue LI ; Shu-Jing ZHANG ; Dong XUE ; Yue-Qi FENG ; Yan LI ; Xun HUANG ; Qiang CUI ; Bo WANG ; Jun FENG ; Tao BAO ; Pei-Jun LIU ; Shao-Ying LU ; Ji-Chang WANG
Journal of Pharmaceutical Analysis 2023;13(3):262-275
The development of chemoresistance which results in a poor prognosis often renders current treatments for colorectal cancer(CRC).In this study,we identified reduced microvessel density(MVD)and vascular immaturity resulting from endothelial apoptosis as therapeutic targets for overcoming chemoresistance.We focused on the effect of metformin on MVD,vascular maturity,and endothelial apoptosis of CRCs with a non-angiogenic phenotype,and further investigated its effect in overcoming chemoresistance.In situ transplanted cancer models were established to compare MVD,endothelial apoptosis and vascular maturity,and function in tumors from metformin-and vehicle-treated mice.An in vitro co-culture system was used to observe the effects of metformin on tumor cell-induced endothelial apoptosis.Transcriptome sequencing was performed for genetic screening.Non-angiogenic CRC developed inde-pendently of angiogenesis and was characterized by vascular leakage,immaturity,reduced MVD,and non-hypoxia.This phenomenon had also been observed in human CRC.Furthermore,non-angiogenic CRCs showed a worse response to chemotherapeutic drugs in vivo than in vitro.By suppressing endo-thelial apoptosis,metformin sensitized non-angiogenic CRCs to chemo-drugs via elevation of MVD and improvement of vascular maturity.Further results showed that endothelial apoptosis was induced by tumor cells via activation of caspase signaling,which was abrogated by metformin administration.These findings provide pre-clinical evidence for the involvement of endothelial apoptosis and subsequent vascular immaturity in the chemoresistance of non-angiogenic CRC.By suppressing endothelial apoptosis,metformin restores vascular maturity and function and sensitizes CRC to chemotherapeutic drugs via a vascular mechanism.
4.Exploring biological connotation of blood stasis syndrome of rheumatoid arthritis and establishment of improved animal models based on syndrome-symptom mapping
Wen-jia CHEN ; Tao LI ; Ming-zhu XU ; Xun GONG ; Wei-xiang LIU ; Pei-hao LI ; Quan JIANG ; Wei LIU ; Xia MAO ; Xin LI ; Hai-yu XU ; Na LIN ; Yan-qiong ZHANG
Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica 2023;58(8):2434-2441
Blood stasis syndrome is one of the core clinical syndrome of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), but the biological connotation of this syndrome is not clear, and there is a lack of disease improved animal models that match the characteristics of this disease and syndrome. The aim of this study was to screen the candidate biomarker gene set of blood stasis syndrome of RA, reveal the biological connotation of this syndrome, and explore and evaluate the preparation method of the improved animal model based on the characteristics of "disease-syndrome-symptom". The study was approved by the ethics committee of Guang'anmen Hospital, Chinese Academy of Traditional Chinese Medicine (No. 2019-073-KY-01) and the First Affiliated Hospital of Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine (No. TYLL2021[K]018), and the study subjects gave their informed consent. Animal welfare and experimental procedures followed the regulations of the Experimental Animal Ethics Committee of the Chinese Academy of Traditional Chinese Medicine (No. IBTCMCACMS21-2207-01). The whole blood samples were collected clinically from RA patients with blood stasis syndrome (3 cases) or other syndromes (7 types, 3 cases/type), and healthy volunteers (4 cases), and then transcriptome sequencing, KEGG, gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) and weighted correlation network analysis (WGCNA) analysis were performed. 126 pivotal genes were screened, and their functional annotation results were significantly enriched in "immune-inflammation" related pathways and lipid metabolism regulation (sphingolipids, ether lipid metabolism and steroid biosynthesis). Syndrome-symptom mapping of hub gene set to the TCM primary and secondary symptoms, Western phenotypic symptoms and pathological links showed that joint tingling, abnormal joint morphology, petechiae and abnormal blood circulation are representative of blood stasis syndrome of RA. The results of the improved animal model showed that the rats in the collagen-induced arthritis + adrenaline hydrochloride (CIA+Adr) 3 model group had increased blood rheology, coagulation, platelet function and endothelial function abnormalities compared with the CIA-alone model group, suggesting that the rats with blood stasis syndrome of RA may be in a state of "blood stasis". The results of the study can help to advance the objective study of the evidence of blood stasis syndrome in RA, and provide new ideas for the establishment of an animal model that reflects the clinical characteristics of the disease and syndrome.
5.Image-guided Strategy of Intensity-modulated Radiotherapy in Helical Tomography for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma
Meng-xue HE ; Pei-xun XU ; Hong HUANG ; Xuan-guang CHEN ; Hui-lang HE ; Zi-xian ZHANG ; Hui LIU ; Sen-kui XU ; Wen-yan YAO
Journal of Sun Yat-sen University(Medical Sciences) 2023;44(1):131-137
ObjectiveThis study aimed to analyze the difference in setup error before and after correction of systematic error. To determine the most appropriate image-guided strategy during HT treatment, we use different scanning ranges and image-guidance frequencies in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) treated with helical tomotherapy (HT). MethodsFifteen patients with NPC who received HT treatment in Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center from October 2019 to February 2020 were selected. Megavoltage computed tomography (MVCT) scanning was performed before each treatment. After five times of radiotherapy, system-error correction was performed to adjust the setup center. The setup errors before and after the correction of systematic errors, as well as the setup errors of different scanning ranges and different scanning frequencies, were collected for analysis and comparison. ResultsWhen comparing the setup errors before and after the correction of systematic error, the differences in setup errors in the left–right (LR), superior–inferior (SI), and anterior–posterior (AP) directions were statistically significant (P<0.05).The different scanning ranges of "nasopharynx + neck" and "nasopharynx" were compared, and a statistically significant difference was found in yaw rotational errors (P<0.05). In the comparison of daily and weekly scan frequency after system-error correction, a significant difference was found in AP direction (P<0.05). ConclusionDuring radiotherapy for NPC, the systematic error can be corrected according to the first five setup errors, and then small-scale scanning was selected for image-guided radiotherapy every day.
6.Application of discrete event simulation model in analysis on cost-effectiveness of epidemiology screening.
Jia Min WANG ; Qiu Ping LIU ; Chao GONG ; Ming Lu ZHANG ; Pei GAO ; Xun TANG ; Yong Hua HU
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2023;44(3):463-469
Discrete event simulation (DES) model is based on individual data, by which discrete events over time are simulated to reflect disease progression. The effects of individual characteristics on disease progression could be considered in the DES model. Moreover, unlike state-transition models, DES model without setting of fixed cycle can contribute to more accurate estimation of event time, especially in the evaluation of the long-term effectiveness of screening strategies for complex diseases in which time dimension needs to be considered. This article introduces the general principles, construction steps, analytic methods and other relevant issues of the DES model. Based on a research case of estimating the cost-effectiveness of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms in women aged 65 years and above in the United Kingdom, key points in applications of the DES model in analysis on effectiveness of complex disease screening are discussed in detail, including model construction and analysis and interpretation of the results. DES model can predict occurring time of discrete events accurately by establishing the distribution function of their occurring time and is increasingly used to evaluate the screening strategies for complex diseases in which time dimension needs to be considered. In the construction of DES model, it is necessary to pay close attention to the clear presentation of model structure and simulation process and follow the relevant reporting specification to conduct cost-effectiveness analysis to ensure the transparency and repeatability of the research.
Humans
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Female
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Cost-Benefit Analysis
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Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
;
Disease Progression
7.Mechanism of Dendrobium huoshanense Polysaccharide Against Neuroinflammation in Parkinson's Disease Model: Based on NLRP3 Inflammasome
Xiaolong SHANG ; Chenchen XU ; Jianjian DONG ; Chunling CI ; Pei ZHANG ; Liangjie ZHANG ; Hongyang JIN ; Jie LI ; Xun WANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2023;29(11):97-105
ObjectiveTo explore the mechanism of Dendrobium huoshanense polysaccharide (DHP) against inflammatory damage of neurons in Parkinson's disease (PD) model. MethodSH-SY5Y cells were randomized into blank group, model group, and DHP group. The survival rate of cells was measured by thiazole blue(MTT) assay, and the levels of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), reactive oxygen species (ROS), malondialdehyde (MDA), and superoxide dismutase (SOD) were measured by colorimetric analysis. BV-2 microglia were classified into blank group, model group, DHP group, and MCC950 group (positive control group), and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was applied to detect the levels of tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), interleukin-1β (IL-1β), and interleukin-18 (IL-18). The expression of NOD-like receptor protein 3 (NLRP3), adaptor protein apoptosis-associated dot protein (ASC), cysteine aspartic protease-1 (Caspase-1), and IL-1β was measured by Western blot. A total of 50 C57BL/6 mice were randomized into blank group, model group, DHP low-dose (100 mg·kg-1) group, DHP equivalent-dose (350 mg·kg-1) group, and MCC950 group (positive control group), 10 mice in each group. The motor balance and coordination of C57BL/6 mice were observed by beam walking test, tail suspension test and rotarod test. The levels of Iba-1 and tyrosine hydroxylase (TH) were detected by immunofluorescence staining. The damage of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra was detected by FJB staining. The levels of inflammatory factors such as IL-1β, IL-18, and TNF-α in mouse midbrain tissues were detected by ELISA and the protein levels of NLRP3, ASC, Caspase-1, and IL-1β protein were measured by Western blot. ResultCompared with the blank group, the SH-SY5Y model group showed decreased cell survival, increased levels of LDH, ROS, and MDA (P<0.05), and decreased levels of SOD (P<0.05). Compared with the model group, the DHP group demonstrated increased cell survival, decreased levels of LDH, ROS, and MDA (P<0.01), and increased level of SOD (P<0.01). Compared with the blank group, BV-2 model group had high levels of IL-1β, IL-18, and TNF-α (P<0.05) and high protein expression of NLRP3, Caspase-1, IL-1β, and ASC (P<0.05). Compared with the model group, DHP and MCC950 groups demonstrated low levels of IL-1β, IL-18, and TNF-α (P<0.01) and low protein expression of NLRP3, Caspase-1, IL-1β, and ASC (P<0.01). Compared with the blank group, the C57BL/6 model group displayed long time to pass the balance wood (P<0.05), short time spent on the rod in the rotarod test (P<0.05), high levels of IL-1β, IL-18, and TNF-α (P<0.05) and expression of Iba-1 in the midbrain substantia nigra (P<0.05), low TH expression (P<0.05), more positive neurons in the FJB staining (P<0.05), and high expression of NLRP3, Caspase-1, ASC, and IL-1β proteins (P < 0.05). Compared with the model group, the mice in the DHP and MCC950 groups had short time to pass the balance beam (P<0.01), long time spent on the rod (P<0.01), low levels of IL-1β, IL-18, and TNF-α (P<0.01), low Iba-1 expression in midbrain substantia nigra (P<0.01), high TH expression (P<0.01), and small number of positive neurons in the midbrain substantia nigra (P<0.01). The expression of NLRP3, ASC, and IL-1β proteins was lower in the MCC950 group (P<0.01), and the expression of NLRP3, ASC, Caspase-1 and IL-1β proteins was lower in the DHP equivalent-dose group (P<0.01) than in the model group. ConclusionDHP has anti-oxidative stress effect. It regulates the expression of NLRP3 inflammasome and inhibits the overactivation of microglia, thereby alleviating the neuroinflammatory injury in PD and exerting the neuroprotective effect.
8.Hemodynamic characteristics of lenticulostriate artery in patients with cerebral small vessel disease: a 7.0 T MRI study
Zhiye LI ; Yuanbin ZHAO ; Xiaoyan BAI ; Xun PEI ; Xue ZHANG ; Binbin SUI
Chinese Journal of Radiology 2023;57(11):1174-1179
Objective:To investigate the hemodynamic characteristics of the lenticulostriate artery (LSA) in cerebral small vessel disease (CSVD) patients with recent small subcortical infarcts (RSSI) using 7.0 T two-dimensional phase-contrast MRI (2D PC-MRI).Methods:A total of 16 CSVD patients with deep RSSI and 18 age-and sex-matched healthy controls (HC group) meeting the inclusion criteria were prospectively recruited from July 2021 to June 2022 at Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University. All participants underwent 7.0 T 2D PC-MRI with imaging plane localized at the level of the basal ganglia. A self-developed software (Flow analyze V1.0) was used to analyze the hemodynamic status of bilateral LSAs. The hemodynamic parameters including the maximum velocity (V max), average velocity (V avg), pulsatility index (PI), and resistance index (RI) of LSAs were calculated and recorded. As for the CSVD cases, the symptomatic side was defined as the ipsilateral side to the RSSI (CSVD symptomatic-side group), and the contralateral side was defined as the asymptomatic side (CSVD asymptomatic-side group). ANOVA or Mann-Whitney U test was used to compare hemodynamic parameters among the three groups. Results:Significant differences in V max, V avg and PI were observed among the CSVD symptomatic-side group, CSVD asymptomatic-side group, and HC group ( F=5.22, P=0.006; F=3.47, P=0.033; F=4.37, P=0.014). Specifically, CSVD symptomatic-side group showed significantly reduced V max ( P=0.004) and V avg ( P=0.017), and increased PI ( P=0.007) compared to the HC group. The CSVD asymptomatic-side group showed decreased V max ( P=0.026) and increased PI ( P=0.039) compared to the HC group. Conclusions:Hemodynamic assessment based on 7.0 T 2D PC-MRI reveal that CSVD patients with RSSI decrease blood flow velocity and increase arterial PI of LSAs. These findings suggest potential corresponding hemodynamic mechanisms associated with CSVD with RSSI lesions.
9.Biological connotation of four traditional Chinese medicine syndromes of rheumatoid arthritis based on "disease-syndrome-symptom" association network.
Wen-Jia CHEN ; Xun GONG ; Wei-Xiang LIU ; Pei-Hao LI ; Quan JIANG ; Wei LIU ; Na LIN ; Yan-Qiong ZHANG
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2022;47(3):796-806
The present study explored the biological connotation of traditional Chinese medicine(TCM) syndromes of rheumatoid arthritis(RA) from the "disease-syndrome-symptom" association network. RA patients with four TCM syndromes(dampness-heat obstruction, phlegm-stasis obstruction, Qi-blood deficiency, and liver and kidney deficiency), three for each type, were assigned as the RA TCM syndrome group, and three healthy volunteers as the normal control group. The differential gene sets of four syndromes were screened out through transcriptome expression profiling and bioinformatics mining. The relevant gene sets of syndrome-related clinical symptoms were collected from TCMIP v2.0(http://www.tcmip.cn/). The "disease-syndrome-symptom" association networks of four RA syndromes were established by using the intersection genes of syndrome-related differential genes and symptom-related genes, and the key network target genes of each syndrome were screened out and the corresponding biological functions were mined through topological feature calculation and enrichment analysis. The genes associated with clinical symptoms such as vasculitis, joint pain, and fever in the damp-heat obstruction syndrome ranked the top, and the key network target genes of this syndrome were most significantly enriched in the pathways related to material and energy metabolism and thermal reaction biological processes. The clinical symptom-related genes of the phlegm-stasis obstruction syndrome were most significantly enriched in the pathways related to "immunity-inflammation", nervous system regulation, and sensory response. The clinical symptoms such as hypoglycemia, hypotension, weight loss, palpitation, and arrhythmia in Qi-blood deficiency syndrome were predominant, and its key network target genes were most significantly enriched in the pathways related to the nervous system and "immunity-inflammation" response. The abnormal symptoms in the liver and kidney in the liver and kidney deficiency syndrome were commonly seen, and its key network target genes were most significantly enriched in the "immunity-inflammation" regulatory pathways, and liver and kidney development and metabolic response. In conclusion, the differences and connections of the biological basis between different TCM syndromes of RA are in line with the theoretical interpretation of TCM on the etiology and pathogenesis of RA. This study summarized the objective essence of syndromes to a certain extent from the "disease-syndrome-symptom" association network and is expected to provide a theoretical basis for the discovery of serum biomarkers of RA syndromes.
Arthritis, Rheumatoid/genetics*
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Hot Temperature
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Humans
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Kidney
;
Medicine, Chinese Traditional
;
Syndrome
10.Accuracy of the China-PAR and WHO risk models in predicting the ten-year risks of cardiovascular disease in the Chinese population.
Wei Ye CHEN ; Xiao Fei LIU ; Peng SHEN ; Qi CHEN ; Ye Xiang SUN ; Jin Guo WU ; Ping LU ; Jing Yi ZHANG ; Hong Bo LIN ; Xun TANG ; Pei GAO
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2022;43(8):1275-1281
Objective: To externally validate and compare the accuracy of the China-PAR (Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China) model and the 2019 World Health Organization (WHO) cardiovascular disease risk charts for East Asian in predicting a 10-year cardiovascular disease in a general Chinese population. Methods: Participants aged 40-79 years without prior cardiovascular disease at baseline in the CHinese Electronic health Records Research in Yinzhou (CHERRY) were analyzed. The Kaplan-Meier analysis estimated the observed cardiovascular events (including non-fatal myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, and non-fatal or fatal stroke) rate within ten years. The expected risks were calculated using the WHO risk charts for East Asia (including the laboratory-based and non-laboratory-based models) and the China-PAR model. The expected-observed ratios were calculated to evaluate the overestimation or underestimation of the models in the cohort. Model accuracy was assessed by discrimination C-index, calibration χ2 value, and calibration plots. Results: During a median of 7.26 years of follow-up, 13 301 cardiovascular events were identified among 225 811 participants. The C-index for the China-PAR model, WHO laboratory-based model and WHO non-laboratory-based model were 0.741 (0.735-0.747), 0.747 (0.740-0.753), and 0.739 (0.733-0.746) for men, and 0.782 (0.776-0.788), 0.789 (0.783-0.795), and 0.782 (0.776-0.787) for women, respectively. The WHO laboratory-based model and non-laboratory-based model underestimated the 10-year ASCVD risk by around 15% in women and underestimated by 0.8% and 4.4% in men, respectively. The China-PAR model underestimated the risks by 19.5% and 42.3% for men and women. Conclusions: The China-PAR and WHO models all have pretty good discriminations for 10-year cardiovascular risk assessment in this general Chinese population. However, the accuracy should be improved in the highest-risk groups, suggesting further specific models are still needed for those with the highest risk, such as patients with diabetes or older persons.
Adult
;
Aged
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Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology*
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Female
;
Humans
;
Male
;
Middle Aged
;
Risk Assessment
;
Risk Factors
;
World Health Organization

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