PURPOSE: The degree of benefit from palliative chemotherapy differs widely among patients with metastatic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (MESCC). The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a prognostic nomogram to predict survival and aid physicians and patients in the decision-making process regarding treatment options. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Clinicopathologic variables and treatment outcomes of 239 patients who were diagnosed with MESCC and received either fluorouracil/cisplatin (FP) or capecitabine/cisplatin (XP) as first-line chemotherapy were reviewed. A nomogram was developed as a prognostic scoring system incorporating significant clinical and laboratory variables based on a multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model. An independent series of 61 MESCC patients treated with FP served as an independent data set for nomogram validation. RESULTS: No difference in response rate was observed between the FP group (44.8%) and the XP group (54.2%). Similarly, no significant differences in median progression-free survival and median overall survival were observed between regimen groups. Multivariate analysis showed that poor performance status (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group [ECOG] status> or =2), weight loss (10% of the weight loss for 3 months), low albumin level (< or =3.5 g/dL), and absence of previous esophagectomy at the time of chemotherapy were significantly associated with low OS in both groups (p<0.05). Based on these findings, patients were classified into favorable (score, 0 to 90), intermediate (91-134), and poor (>135) prognostic groups. The median survival for those with a favorable ECOG was 13.8 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 10.8 to 18.6 months), for intermediate 11.2 months (95% CI, 8.7 to 11.9 months), and for poor, 7.0 months (95% CI, 3.6 to 10.0 months). External validation of the nomogram in a different patient cohort yielded significantly similar findings. CONCLUSION: The nomogram described here predicts survival in MESCC patients and could serve as a guide for the use of FP/XP chemotherapy in MESCC patients.
Carcinoma, Squamous Cell* ; Cohort Studies ; Dataset ; Disease-Free Survival ; Drug Therapy* ; Esophagectomy ; Humans ; Multivariate Analysis ; Nomograms* ; Treatment Outcome* ; Weight Loss