Objective: To forecast mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes, and to simulate the impact of controlling risk factors by 2030 in China. Methods: We simulated the burden of disease from diabetes in six scenarios according to the development goals of risk factors control by the WHO and Chinese government. Based on the theory of comparative risk assessment and the estimates of the burden of disease for China from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015, we used the proportional change model to project the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes under different scenarios of risk factors control in 2030. Results: If the trends in exposures to risk factors from 1990 to 2015 continued. Mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes would increase to 32.57/100 000, 17.32/100 000, and 0.84% by 2030, respectively. During that time, mortality, age-standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality for males would all be higher than for females. If the goals of controlling risk factors were all achieved, the number of deaths from diabetes in 2030 would decrease by 62.10% compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends in exposure to risk factors, and the probability of premature mortality would drop to 0.29%. If only the exposure to a single risk factor were achieved by 2030, high fasting plasma glucose control would have the greatest impact on diabetes, resulting in a 56.00% reduction in deaths compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends, followed by high BMI (4.92%), smoking (0.65%), and low physical activity (0.53%). Conclusions: Risk factors control plays an important role in reducing the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes. We suggest taking comprehensive measures to control relevant risk factors for certain populations and regions, to achieve the goal of reducing the burden of disease from diabetes as expected.
Male ; Female ; Humans ; Risk Factors ; Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology* ; Mortality, Premature ; Smoking ; Cost of Illness ; China/epidemiology* ; Global Burden of Disease

Rationale: Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is a disease that primarily manifests in the early stages of life and progressively affects muscle strength resulting in quadriparesis and ultimately resulting in premature death secondary to cardiac or respiratory failure. DMD is the most common x-linked genetic disorder in children that is because of an alteration of a protein called “dystrophin” which is responsible for strengthening muscle fibers and protecting them from injury as muscles contract and relax. Objective: To highlight the case of a 19-year-old male who was diagnosed with DMD at 8 years of age and treated with oral corticosteroid and rehabilitation. Case: We present the case of a 19-year-old male who developed difficulty climbing stairs and was diagnosed with DMD at 8 years old with the use of clinical exome sequencing. Corticosteroid therapy was initiated and rehabilitation perpetuated which dramatically improved his life expectancy. Discussion and Summary Clinical exome sequencing was employed on our patient to confirm the diagnosis of DMD from other neuromuscular and neurodegenerative diseases. Most cases of DMD succumb to cardiopulmonary arrest before reaching adulthood; however, this case exemplifies DMD from other cases since our patient was able to prolong his life with continuation of oral corticosteroid and rehabilitation and in the absence of extensive life support.
Dystrophin ; Mortality, Premature

OBJECTIVES: To provide reference basis for reducing the mortality for children under 5 years old and promote the healthy development, the mortality for children under 5 years old and the main causes for death in Liuyang City from 2013 to 2020 are analyzed. METHODS: The data of 725 cases of death for children under 5 years old in Liuyang City from 2013 to 2020 were collected.The causes and difference of death among the children were analyzed retrospectively by descriptive statistic methods. RESULTS: There were a total of 144 516 live births in Liuyang City from 2013 to 2020. The mortality for children under 5 years old was 5.01‰, for infants was 3.39‰, and for newborns was 1.63‰. The male child mortality was 5.28‰, and the female child mortality rate was 4.72‰, with significant difference (P>0.05). The mortality for children under 5 years old was seasonal fluctuation, without significant difference among seasons (P>0.05). For the past 5 years, the top 3 causes for death among children under 5 years old were preterm birth and low birth weight, congenital heart disease, and pneumonia. Before death, 341 cases (47.04%) were treated in provincial hospitals, 198 cases (27.31%) in county-level hospitals, 56 cases (7.72%) in village-level hospitals, and 130 cases (17.93%) were not treated. CONCLUSIONS The mortality for children under 5 years old in Liuyang City is gradually reduced in the past 5 years. The main causes for death are premature birth and low birth weight, congenital heart disease and pneumonia. We should develop healthy education, improve the rate of prenatal diagnosis, promote the construction of obstetrics and paediatrics, and fundamentally reduce the mortality for children under 5 years old.
Cause of Death ; Child ; Child Mortality ; Child, Preschool ; Female ; Heart Defects, Congenital ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant Mortality ; Infant, Newborn ; Male ; Pneumonia/epidemiology* ; Pregnancy ; Premature Birth ; Retrospective Studies

Objective: To investigate the incidence and trend of short-term outcomes among preterm infants born <34 weeks' gestation. Methods: A secondary analysis of data from the standardized database established by a multicenter cluster-randomized controlled study "reduction of infection in neonatal intensive care units (NICU) using the evidence-based practice for improving quality (REIN-EPIQ) study". This study was conducted in 25 tertiary NICU. A total of 27 192 infants with gestational age <34 weeks at birth and admitted to NICU within the first 7 days of life from May 2015 to April 2018 were enrolled. Infants with severe congenital malformation were excluded. Descriptive analyses were used to describe the mortality and major morbidities of preterm infants by gestational age groups and different admission year groups. Cochran-Armitage test and Jonckheere-Terpstra test were used to analyze the trend of incidences of mortality and morbidities in 3 study-years. Multiple Logistic regression model was constructed to analyze the differences of outcomes in 3 study-years adjusting for confounders. Results: A total of 27 192 preterm infants were enrolled with gestational age of (31.3±2.0) weeks at birth and weight of (1 617±415) g at birth. Overall, 9.5% (2 594/27 192) of infants were discharged against medical advice, and the overall mortality rate was 10.7% (2 907/27 192). Mortality for infants who received complete care was 4.7% (1 147/24 598), and mortality or any major morbidity was 26.2% (6 452/24 598). The incidences of moderate to severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia, sepsis, severe intraventricular hemorrhage or periventricular leukomalacia, proven necrotizing enterocolitis, and severe retinopathy of prematurity were 16.0% (4 342/27 192), 11.9% (3 225/27 192), 6.8% (1 641/24 206), 3.6% (939/25 762) and 1.5% (214/13 868), respectively. There was a decreasing of the overall mortality (P<0.001) during the 3 years. Also, the incidences for sepsis and severe retinopathy of prematurity both decreased (both P<0.001). However, there were no significant differences in the major morbidity in preterm infants who received complete care during the 3-year study period (P=0.230). After adjusting for confounders, infants admitted during the third study year showed significantly lower risk of overall mortality (adjust OR=0.62, 95%CI 0.55-0.69, P<0.001), mortality or major morbidity, moderate to severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia, sepsis and severe retinopathy of prematurity, compared to those admitted in the first study year (all P<0.05). Conclusions: From 2015 to 2018, the mortality and major morbidities among preterm infants in Chinese NICU decreased, but there is still space for further efforts. Further targeted quality improvement is needed to improve the overall outcome of preterm infants.
Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia/epidemiology* ; Gestational Age ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant Mortality/trends* ; Infant, Newborn ; Infant, Premature ; Infant, Premature, Diseases/epidemiology* ; Patient Discharge ; Retinopathy of Prematurity/epidemiology* ; Sepsis/epidemiology*

Objective: Predictive models were used to evaluate the impact of common risk factors on the number of cardio-cerebrovascular deaths and the probability of premature death. Methods: Using the data for China estimated by the Global Burden of Disease study 2015 (GBD 2015), we calculated the population attribution fraction (PAF) of risk factors. The proportional change model was used to estimate the number of unattributable deaths by 2030, and to predict the number of deaths, mortality, standardized mortality and probability of premature death by 2030. Results: According to the natural change trend of risk factors from 1990 to 2015, the number of deaths and mortality would reach 6.12 million and 428.53/100 000 by 2030, with an increase of 59.92% and 52.87%. By 2030, the probability of premature death from cardio-cerebrovascular diseases among Chinese aged 30-70 years old would continue to decline, from 11.43% to 11.28% for men, and from 5.79% to 4.43% for women. If the goals of all included risk factors were reached by 2030, 2 289 200 cardio-cerebrovascular deaths would be avoided. If only the exposure to a single risk factor was achieved by 2030, blood pressure, total cholesterol, and fine particulate matter exposure were the three most important factors affecting cardio-cerebrovascular deaths, which would reduce 1 332 800, 609 100 and 306 800 deaths, respectively. Among the involved risk factors, the control of blood pressure would mostly decrease the number of deaths due to ischemic heart disease and hemorrhagic stroke, about 677 300 and 391 100 deaths, accordingly. Conclusion: The control of risk factors is of great significance in reducing deaths and probability of premature death due to cardio-cerebrovascular diseases. If the control targets of all risk factors could be achieved by 2030, the burden of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases would be reduced greatly.
Adult ; Aged ; Blood Pressure ; Cerebrovascular Disorders/epidemiology* ; China/epidemiology* ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Mortality, Premature ; Risk Factors

Objective: To predict the number of deaths, standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality caused by malignant cancer in the context of risk factor control at different levels in China in 2030, and assess the possibility of achieving the target of reducing the probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer. Methods: According to the risk factor control standard for malignant cancer used both at home and abroad, the results of China from Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 were used to calculate the population attributable fraction of the risk factors. Based on the comparative risk assessment theory, the deaths of malignant cancer were classified as attributable deaths and un-attributable deaths. Proportional change model was used to predict risk factor exposure and un-attributable deaths of malignant cancer in the future, then the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer in 2030 was estimated. Data analyses were performed by using software R 3.6.1. Results: If the risk factor exposure level during 1990-2015 remains, the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer would increase to 3.62 million, 153.96/100 000 and 8.92% by 2030, respectively. If the risk factor exposure control level meets the requirement, the probability of premature mortality from cancer in people aged 30-70 years would drop to 7.57% by 2030. Conclusions: The control of risk factor exposure will play an important role in reducing deaths, standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer. But more efforts are needed to achieve the goals of Health China Action.
Adult ; Aged ; China/epidemiology* ; Cost of Illness ; Humans ; Middle Aged ; Mortality, Premature ; Neoplasms/epidemiology* ; Risk Factors

Objective: To understand the characteristics and trend of the premature death rate of 4 major chronic diseases in Ji'nan from 2015 to 2020. Methods: The death cause surveillance data and population data during 2015-2020 in Ji'nan were collected, and abbreviated life table, Joinpoint regression analysis and other methods were used to analyze the characteristics and change trends of the premature death rates of 4 major chronic diseases. Results: The crude mortality rate and age standardized mortality rate changes for the 4 major chronic diseases from 2015 to 2020 range from 568.65/100 000 to 604.06/100 000 and 366.77/100 000 to 432.48/100 000, respectively. The annual premature death rate of 4 major chronic diseases declined by 3.33% averagely from 2015 to 2020 (95%CI: -6.25%--0.32%), which might be explained by the declines of the premature death rates of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases [average annual percentage change (AAPC)=-3.23%, 95%CI: -6.32%--0.05%] and cancer (AAPC=-3.58%,95%CI:-6.83%--0.21%). The average decline rate in women (AAPC=-4.19%,95%CI:-7.56%- -0.70%) was higher than that in men (AAPC=-2.92%,95%CI: -5.65%--0.11%). Conclusions: The premature death rate of 4 major chronic diseases showed a downward trend in Ji'nan from 2015 to 2020. Men should be considered as a key population in the prevention and control of 4 major chronic diseases, and attention should also be paid to the non-significant declines in the premature death rates of chronic respiratory diseases and diabetes.
Cerebrovascular Disorders ; Chronic Disease ; Diabetes Mellitus ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Mortality, Premature ; Regression Analysis

Objective: To investigate the current status and changes of disease burden of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases in 1990 and 2016 for Beijing people. Methods: Using the results of the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to describe deaths status and disease burden of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases in Beijing. The measurement index included the total deaths, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLL), years lived with disability (YLD), and disability-adjusted years (DALY). Using the average world population from 2000 to 2025 as standard population to calculate the age-standardized mortality rate, DALY rate, YLL rate and YLD rate. Results: The age-standardized mortality rate of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases was 209.24 per 100 000. In 2016, DALY, YLL and YLD of cardio-cerebrovascular was 875.6, 733.6 and 142.0 thousand person-years, respectively, which has increased by 58.05%, 44.24% and 213.47%, respectively, than that in 1990. The age-standardized DALY rate and age-standardized YLL rate of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases in 2016 was 3 552.24 and 2 988.01 per 100 000 which has decreased by 47.90% and 52.43%, respectively, than that in 1990. The age-standardized YLD rate of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases in 2016 was 564.23 per 100 000 which increased by 5.10% than that in 1990. In 2016, the total death of cerebrovascular disease and ischemic heart disease was 17.6 thousand and 23.7 thousand, respectively. DALY was 396.3 and 393.6 thousand person-years in 2016, while 330.2 and 162.7 thousand person-years in 1990, which has increased by 20.02% and 141.92%, respectively. Conclusions: The disease burden of cardio-cerebrovascular disease is serious, especially the burden of cerebrovascular disease and ischemic heart disease. The disability burden of cerebrovascular disease is serious. The disease burden of ischemic heart disease has multiplied.
Beijing ; Cerebrovascular Disorders ; Cost of Illness ; Disabled Persons ; Humans ; Mortality, Premature ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years

PURPOSE: In this study, we investigated the clinical features and prognostic factors of early-onset sepsis (EOS) in neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) patients. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was conducted on medical records from January 2010 to June 2017 (7.5 years) of a university hospital NICU. RESULTS: There were 45 cases of EOS (1.2%) in 3,862 infants. The most common pathogen responsible for EOS was group B Streptococcus (GBS), implicated in 10 cases (22.2%), followed by Escherichia coli, implicated in 9 cases (20%). The frequency of gram-positive sepsis was higher in term than in preterm infants, whereas the rate of gram-negative infection was higher in preterm than in term infants (P < 0.05). The overall mortality was 37.8% (17 of 45), and 47% of deaths occurred within the first 3 days of infection. There were significant differences in terms of gestational age (26.8 weeks vs. 35.1 weeks) and birth weight (957 g vs. 2,520 g) between the death and survival groups. After adjustments based on the difference in gestational age and birth weight between the 2 groups, gram-negative pathogens (odds ratio [OR], 42; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4–1,281.8) and some clinical findings, such as neutropenia (OR, 46; 95% CI, 1.3–1,628.7) and decreased activity (OR, 34; 95% CI, 1.8–633.4), were found to be associated with fatality. CONCLUSION: The common pathogens found to be responsible for EOS in NICU patients are GBS and E. coli. Gram-negative bacterial infections, decreased activity in the early phase of infection, and neutropenia were associated with poor outcomes.
Birth Weight ; Escherichia coli ; Gestational Age ; Gram-Negative Bacterial Infections ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Infant, Premature ; Intensive Care, Neonatal* ; Medical Records ; Mortality ; Neutropenia ; Prognosis ; Retrospective Studies ; Sepsis* ; Streptococcus

BACKGROUND: Several studies have been conducted regarding people with disabilities, however no studies have estimated the disease burden due to premature death. As such, we aimed to compare the years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature death between a population with disabilities and the total population of Korea. METHODS: To calculate the YLLs in people with disabilities, we combined disability registration data from the 2002–2011 Ministry of Health and Welfare of Korea and the causes of mortality data by Statistics Korea for 3,158,231 people. RESULTS: YLLs of people with disabilities were 517,337, which accounted for 23.4% of YLLs of the total population. YLLs per 100,000 people with disabilities were approximately 3.8 times higher than those in the total Korean population. Ischemic stroke was associated with the highest YLLs per 100,000 people, followed by ischemic heart disease, hemorrhagic, and other non-ischemic stroke, diabetes mellitus, and self-harm. Among individuals with physical disabilities, ischemic heart disease was associated with the highest YLLs. For intellectual disability, epilepsy contributed to the most YLLs. For individuals with mental disability, self-harm was the largest contributor to YLLs. CONCLUSION: The burden of disease was higher in the population with disabilities than that in the general population. Cardiovascular diseases and cancer had a higher burden of disease than did other diseases in the population with disabilities; thus, overall, non-communicable diseases have a higher burden of disease than communicable diseases or injuries in the population with disabilities than in the general population.
Cardiovascular Diseases ; Communicable Diseases ; Diabetes Mellitus ; Disabled Persons* ; Epilepsy ; Humans ; Intellectual Disability ; Korea* ; Mortality ; Mortality, Premature* ; Myocardial Ischemia ; Stroke