Objective: To forecast mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes, and to simulate the impact of controlling risk factors by 2030 in China. Methods: We simulated the burden of disease from diabetes in six scenarios according to the development goals of risk factors control by the WHO and Chinese government. Based on the theory of comparative risk assessment and the estimates of the burden of disease for China from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015, we used the proportional change model to project the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes under different scenarios of risk factors control in 2030. Results: If the trends in exposures to risk factors from 1990 to 2015 continued. Mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes would increase to 32.57/100 000, 17.32/100 000, and 0.84% by 2030, respectively. During that time, mortality, age-standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality for males would all be higher than for females. If the goals of controlling risk factors were all achieved, the number of deaths from diabetes in 2030 would decrease by 62.10% compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends in exposure to risk factors, and the probability of premature mortality would drop to 0.29%. If only the exposure to a single risk factor were achieved by 2030, high fasting plasma glucose control would have the greatest impact on diabetes, resulting in a 56.00% reduction in deaths compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends, followed by high BMI (4.92%), smoking (0.65%), and low physical activity (0.53%). Conclusions: Risk factors control plays an important role in reducing the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes. We suggest taking comprehensive measures to control relevant risk factors for certain populations and regions, to achieve the goal of reducing the burden of disease from diabetes as expected.
Male ; Female ; Humans ; Risk Factors ; Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology* ; Mortality, Premature ; Smoking ; Cost of Illness ; China/epidemiology* ; Global Burden of Disease

Objective: Predictive models were used to evaluate the impact of common risk factors on the number of cardio-cerebrovascular deaths and the probability of premature death. Methods: Using the data for China estimated by the Global Burden of Disease study 2015 (GBD 2015), we calculated the population attribution fraction (PAF) of risk factors. The proportional change model was used to estimate the number of unattributable deaths by 2030, and to predict the number of deaths, mortality, standardized mortality and probability of premature death by 2030. Results: According to the natural change trend of risk factors from 1990 to 2015, the number of deaths and mortality would reach 6.12 million and 428.53/100 000 by 2030, with an increase of 59.92% and 52.87%. By 2030, the probability of premature death from cardio-cerebrovascular diseases among Chinese aged 30-70 years old would continue to decline, from 11.43% to 11.28% for men, and from 5.79% to 4.43% for women. If the goals of all included risk factors were reached by 2030, 2 289 200 cardio-cerebrovascular deaths would be avoided. If only the exposure to a single risk factor was achieved by 2030, blood pressure, total cholesterol, and fine particulate matter exposure were the three most important factors affecting cardio-cerebrovascular deaths, which would reduce 1 332 800, 609 100 and 306 800 deaths, respectively. Among the involved risk factors, the control of blood pressure would mostly decrease the number of deaths due to ischemic heart disease and hemorrhagic stroke, about 677 300 and 391 100 deaths, accordingly. Conclusion: The control of risk factors is of great significance in reducing deaths and probability of premature death due to cardio-cerebrovascular diseases. If the control targets of all risk factors could be achieved by 2030, the burden of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases would be reduced greatly.
Adult ; Aged ; Blood Pressure ; Cerebrovascular Disorders/epidemiology* ; China/epidemiology* ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Mortality, Premature ; Risk Factors

Objective: To predict the number of deaths, standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality caused by malignant cancer in the context of risk factor control at different levels in China in 2030, and assess the possibility of achieving the target of reducing the probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer. Methods: According to the risk factor control standard for malignant cancer used both at home and abroad, the results of China from Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 were used to calculate the population attributable fraction of the risk factors. Based on the comparative risk assessment theory, the deaths of malignant cancer were classified as attributable deaths and un-attributable deaths. Proportional change model was used to predict risk factor exposure and un-attributable deaths of malignant cancer in the future, then the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer in 2030 was estimated. Data analyses were performed by using software R 3.6.1. Results: If the risk factor exposure level during 1990-2015 remains, the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer would increase to 3.62 million, 153.96/100 000 and 8.92% by 2030, respectively. If the risk factor exposure control level meets the requirement, the probability of premature mortality from cancer in people aged 30-70 years would drop to 7.57% by 2030. Conclusions: The control of risk factor exposure will play an important role in reducing deaths, standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer. But more efforts are needed to achieve the goals of Health China Action.
Adult ; Aged ; China/epidemiology* ; Cost of Illness ; Humans ; Middle Aged ; Mortality, Premature ; Neoplasms/epidemiology* ; Risk Factors

Objective: To estimate the incidence of HIV-1 infection in men who have sex with men (MSM) in key areas of China through HIV-1 limiting antigen avidity enzyme immunoassay (LAg-Avidity EIA), analyze the deviation from the actual results and identify influencing factors, and provided reference for improving the accuracy of estimation results. Methods: Based on the principle of the cohort randomized study design, 20 cities were selected in China based on population size and the number of HIV-positive MSM. The sample size was estimated to be 700 according to the HIV-1 infection rate in MSM. MSM mobile phone app. was used to establish a detection appointment and questionnaire system, and the baseline cross-sectional survey was conducted from April to November 2019. LAg-Avidity EIA was used to identify the recent infected samples. The incidence of HIV-1 infection was calculated and then adjusted based on the estimation formula designed by WHO. The influencing factors were identified by analyzing the sample collection and detection processes. Results: Among the 10 650 blood samples from the participants, 799 were HIV-positive in initial screening, in which 198 samples (24.78%) missed during confirmation test. Only 621 samples were received by the laboratory. After excluding misreported samples, 520 samples were qualified for testing. A total of 155 samples were eventually determined as recent infection through LAg-Avidity EIA; Based on the estimation formula , the incidence of HIV-1 infection in MSM in 20 cities was 4.06% (95%CI:3.27%-4.85%), it increased to 5.53% (95%CI: 4.45%-6.60%)after the adjusting for sample missing rate. When the sample missing rate and misreporting rate were both adjusted, the incidence of HIV-1 infection in the MSM increased to 5.66% (95%CI:4.67%-6.65%). The actual incidence of HIV-1 infection in MSM in the 20 cities might be between 4.06% and 5.66%. Conclusions: Sample missing and misreporting might cause the deviation of the estimation of HIV-1 infection incidence. It is important to ensure the sample source and the quality of sample collection and detection to reduce the deviation in the estimation of HIV-1 infection incidence.
Cross-Sectional Studies ; HIV Infections/epidemiology* ; HIV-1 ; Homosexuality, Male ; Humans ; Immunoenzyme Techniques ; Incidence ; Male ; Sexual and Gender Minorities

Objective: To forecast the burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in China by 2030 and evaluate the effectiveness of controlling risk factors based on the predictive model. Methods: Based on the relationship between the death of COPD and exposure to risk factors and the theory of comparative risk assessment, we used the estimates of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD2015) for China, targets for controlling risk factors, and proportion change model to project the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality from chronic respiratory diseases by 2030 in different scenarios and to evaluate the impact of controlling the included risk factors to the disease burden of COPD in 2030. Results: If the trends in exposure to risk factors from 1990 to 2015 continued, the number of deaths and the mortality for COPD would be 1.06 million and 73.85 per 100 000 population in China by 2030, respectively, with an increase of 15.81% and 10.69% compared to those in 2015. Compared to 2015, the age-standardized mortality rate would decrease by 38.88%, and the premature mortality would reduce by 52.73% by 2030. If the smoking rate and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentration separately achieve their control targets by 2030, there would be 0.34 and 0.27 million deaths that could be avoided compared to the predicted numbers based on the natural trends in exposure to risk factors and the probability of premature death would reduce to 0.59% and 0.52%, respectively. If the control targets of all included risk factors were achieved by 2030, a total of 0.53 million deaths would be averted, and the probability of premature death would decrease to 0.44%. Conclusions: If the exposures to risk factors continued as showed from 1990 to 2015, the number of deaths and mortality for COPD would increase by 2030 compared to 2015, and the standardized mortality and the probability of premature death would decrease significantly, which would achieve the targets of preventing and controlling COPD. If the exposure to the included risk factors all achieved the targets by 2030, the burden of COPD would be reduced, suggesting that the control of tobacco use and air pollution should be enhanced to prevent and control COPD.
Air Pollutants/analysis* ; Air Pollution/prevention & control* ; China/epidemiology* ; Cost of Illness ; Environmental Exposure ; Humans ; Particulate Matter/analysis* ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/prevention & control* ; Risk Factors

Angong Niuhuang Pills(AGNHP) are effective in clearing heat, removing the toxin, and eliminating phlegm for resuscitation. Clinically, it is widely used to treat various diseases such as febrile convulsion due to heat attacking pericardium, but its therapeutic effects on heart failure(HF) have not been well recognized. In this study, the profiles of differential metabolites regulated by AGNHP were identified by ultra-high performance liquid chromatography-quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometry(UPLC-Q-TOF-MS). The underlying mechanism of AGNHP against HF was illustrated based on the integrated analysis of pharmacological data and metabolic molecular network. The HF model was induced by isoproterenol in mice. After oral administration of AGNHP for one week, cardiac functions in HF mice were evaluated by echocardiography, and serum samples of mice were collected for metabolomics analysis. Eight differential metabolites of AGNHP against HF were screened out through partial least square discriminant analysis(PLS-DA) and input into MetaboAnalyst for the analysis of metabolic pathways. Moreover, the critical metabolic pathways regulated by AGNHP were enriched according to the potential targets of major compounds in AGNHP. After AGNHP treatment, the recovered index of relative content of some metabolites underwent cross-scale fusion analysis with therapeutic efficacy data, followed by "compound-reaction-enzyme-gene" network analysis. It is inferred that the anti-HF effects of AGNHP may be attributed to the metabolism of arachidonic acid, amino acid, glycerophospholipid, and linoleic acid. The cross-scale polypharmacological analysis method developed in this study provides a new method to interpret scientific principles of AGNHP against HF with modern technologies.
Animals ; Biomarkers ; Chromatography, High Pressure Liquid ; Drugs, Chinese Herbal ; Heart Failure/drug therapy* ; Metabolomics ; Mice

Objective:To investigate the safety and clinical efficacy of the lateral-rectus approach combined with the Pfannenstiel approach in the treatment of pelvic fractures complicated with urethral rupture.Methods:From January 2013 to June 2021, 20 patients with pelvic fracture complicated with urethral rupture were surgically managed through the lateral-rectus approach and the Pfannenstiel approach at Department of Traumatic Surgery, Center for Orthopaedic Surgery, the Third Hospital Affiliated to Southern Medical University. They were 15 males and 5 females, with an average age of 42 years (from 18 to 55 years). By the Tile classification, there were 11 cases of type B and 9 cases of type C. The first-stage urethral realignment was performed via the Pfannenstiel approach in the supine position after general anesthesia in conjunction with an urologist; at the second-stage, the lateral-rectus approach was used to reduce and fixate the acetabular or pelvic fractures. The operation time, intraoperative blood loss, fracture reduction quality, pelvic functional recovery and complications were documented.Results:In this cohort, the operation time ranged from 80 to 240 min, averaging 140.5 min; the time for simple urethral convergence ranged from 20 to 30 min; the intraoperative blood loss ranged from 400 mL to 2,000 mL, averaging 730 mL. According to the Mears andVelyvis evaluation for fracture reduction quality, anatomical reduction was achieved in 13 cases, satisfactory reduction in 6 cases, and unsatisfactory reduction in one. The 20 patients were followed up for 12 to 68 months (mean, 37 months) after surgery. One fracture got nonunited but the other fractures got united after 3.0 to 4.5 months (mean, 3.5 months). According to the Majeed scoring system, the pelvic function at 12 months after surgery was excellent in 12 cases, good in 6 and fair in 2, giving an excellent and good rate of 90% (18/20). Screw loosening was found in one patient, traction injury to the lumbosacral trunk nerve in another patient, varying degrees of dysuria which responded to periodic urethral dilation in 8 patients, urethral stricture in 3 patients and erectile dysfunction in 5 patients. No abdominal hernia or pelvic infection was observed.Conclusions:The lateral-rectus approach combined with the Pfannenstiel approach can be used effectively to reduce and fixate the pelvic and acetabular fractures, and to repair the urethral rupture in one stage as well. They are also safe due to a low incidence of such complications as abdominal wall hernia and pelvic infection.

Objective: We aimed to investigate and interpret the associations between socioeconomic factors and the prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension at the provincial level in China. Methods: A nationally and provincially representative sample of 179,059 adults from the China Chronic Disease and Nutrition Surveillance study in 2015-2016 was used to estimate hypertension burden. The spatial Durbin error model was fitted to investigate socioeconomic factors associated with hypertension indicators. Results: Overall, it was estimated that 29.20% of the participants were hypertensive nationwide, among whom, 34.32% were aware of their condition, 27.69% had received antihypertensive treatment, and 7.81% had controlled their condition. Per capita gross domestic product (GDP) was associated with hypertension prevalence (coefficient: -2.95, 95% Conclusion Hypertension indicators were not only directly influenced by socioeconomic factors of local area but also indirectly affected by characteristics of geographical neighbors. Population-level strategies should involve optimizing supportive socioeconomic environment by integrating clinical care and public health services to decrease hypertension burden.
Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; China/epidemiology* ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Female ; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; Hypertension/psychology* ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Prevalence ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Spatial Analysis ; Young Adult

Objective:To retrospectively analyze the therapeutic effect of subtotal parathyroidectomy (sT-PTX) on uremic patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT).Methods:Seventy two SHPT patients treated with sT-PTX in our hospital were enrolled in this study.Serum parathyroid hormone(PTH),calcium(Ca) and phosphorus(P) obtained in the preoperative,postoperative and followup periods were collected and compared.Their symptoms,postoperative complications and relapse were recorded.Results:(1)sT-PTX operation performed successfully in 70/72 patients(97.2％).(2)After sT-PTX,bone pain and itching improved rapidly,with the improvement of nutritional status,Partial patients with renal hypertension were remitted compared with preoperative.Thirteen cases can walk without wheelchair after sT-PTX.(3)Serum PTH,Ca,and P decreased significantly after sT-PTX for one week,one month and 6 months as compared with those before sT-PTX(P＜0.05).(4)Postoperative hypocalcemia was frequently seen(53/72,53.6％) but could be effectively controlled by intravenous calcium infusion.(5)SHPT recurred in the 6 months after sT-PTX in 4 cases (5.7％).Conclusions:T-PTX can effectively decrease PTH level and improve symptoms,and is a safe measure for the treatment of uremic patients with SHPT.

Objective To explore the care burden and its influencing factors of primary caregiver of patients with spinal cord injury. Methods A total of 120 primary caregiver of spinal cord injury patients were selected as research object. The general information of SCI patients and their primary caregiver were investigated by SCI patient general data questionnaire and primary caregiver in SCI patient general data questionnaire, caregiver burden of spinal cord injury were investigated bycaregiver burden inventory. The relationship between the general information of patients and caregivers and the care burden analyzed. Results Caregiver burden of elderly patients was significantly lower than that of younger ones (F=54.053,P<0.01). The more serious of spinal cord injury, the higher of care burden (F=315.104,P<0.01). The patients with neck and multiple segmental spine injury and postoperative complications had a higher care burden (F=199.203,t=6.462, 32.195,P<0.01). When the caregivers were female, spouses or children, with poor health condition, with higher education degree, and as cadres or workers, caregiver burden was higher (t=6.061,F=22.073-52.392,P<0.01). Multiple linear regression analysis showed that the degree of spinal cord injury, complications, gender, and the relationship between the patients were the main factors that influenced the care burden. Conclusions The main factors influencing the care burden are spinal cord injury degree, complications, gender, and the relationship between the patients. Clinical managers needs to develop appropriate social support system for the factors which affect the caregiver, in order to ease the caregiver′s care burden.