1.Optimization of drug management model for investigator-initiated trial with benchmarking analysis
Yufei XI ; Tianxiao WANG ; Xue ZHANG ; Yingzhuo DING ; Li YAN ; Feng JIANG ; Xiangui HE ; Jiannan HUANG ; Qin LI
China Pharmacy 2025;36(3):280-284
OBJECTIVE To optimize the management model of drugs used in investigator-initiated trial (IIT). METHODS With benchmarking analysis, based on the practical work experience of a tertiary specialized hospital in the field of IIT drug management in Shanghai, a thorough review was conducted, involving relevant laws, regulations, and academic literature to establish benchmark criteria and the evaluation standards. Starting from the initiation of IIT projects, a detailed comparative analysis of key processes was carried out, such as the receipt, storage, distribution, use and recycling of drugs for trial. The deficiencies in the current management of IIT drugs were reviewed in detail and a series of optimization suggestions were put forward. RESULTS It was found that the authorized records of drug management were missing, the training before project implementation was insufficient, and the records of receipt and acceptance of IIT drugs were incomplete. In light of these existing problems, improvement measures were put forward, including strengthening the training of drug administrators and stipulating that only drug administrators with pharmacist qualifications be eligible to inspect and accept drugs, etc. The related systems were improved, and 17 key points of quality control for the management of IIT drugs were developed. CONCLUSIONS A preliminary IIT drug management system for medical institutions has been established, which helps to improve the institutional X2023076) framework of medical institutions in this field.
2.Liuwei Dihuang Wan inhibits oxidative stress in premature ovarian failure mice by regulating intestinal microbiota
Jiawen ZHONG ; Bo JIANG ; Wenyan ZHANG ; Xiaorong LI ; Ling QIN ; Ting GAO
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2025;29(11):2285-2293
BACKGROUND:Studies have shown that patients with premature ovarian failure have changes in the structure of intestinal flora and that imbalance of intestinal microbiota may be one of the important mechanisms in the development of premature ovarian failure. OBJECTIVE:To investigate the effect of Liuwei Dihuang Wan on oxidative stress and intestinal microbiota in premature ovarian failure mice induced by cyclophosphamide. METHODS:Forty-five female ICR mice were randomized into three groups:blank group(normal mice),model group(premature ovarian failure mice),and Liuwei Dihuang Wan group.A mouse model of premature ovarian failure was prepared by one-time intraperitoneal injection of cyclophosphamide(120 mg/kg)in the latter two groups.After successful modeling,the Liuwei Dihuang Wan group was intragastrically administered for 28 continuous days,and the other two groups were intragastrically administered with the same amount of normal saline for 28 days.Mouse body mass was recorded weekly and ovarian index was calculated.The development of mouse follicles was observed using hematoxylin-eosin staining.ELISA method was used to detect serum levels of anti-Mullerian hormone,estradiol,follicle stimulating hormone,superoxide dismutase,glutathione peroxidase,and malondialdehyde.Meanwhile,the gut microbiome of all mice was detected through 16S rDNA sequencing. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:The mice in the model group had loose hair,decreased vigor and grip strength,almost no increase in body mass,and decreased ovarian index.Whereas,the mouse body mass and ovarian index were increased after treatment with Liuwei Dihuang Wan(P<0.05).The estrous cycle of mice in the model group was disorganized;Liuwei Dihuang Wan could restore the estrous cycle and reduce the number of atretic follicles in mice with premature ovarian failure.The serum levels of follicle stimulating hormone and malondialdehyde in the model group significantly increased(P<0.01),while the levels of estradiol,anti-Mullerian hormone,superoxide dismutase,and glutathione peroxidase significantly decreased(P<0.01).Liuwei Dihuang Wan could significantly decrease the serum levels of follicle stimulating hormone and malondialdehyde(P<0.01),and increase the levels of estradiol,anti-Mullerian hormone,superoxide dismutase,and glutathione peroxidase.According to the 16S rDNA sequencing results,Liuwei Dihuang Wan could regulate the abundance and diversity of intestinal microbiota,and increase the relative abundance of beneficial bacteria.KEGG pathway analysis showed that the intestinal microbiota and metabolic pathways,biosynthesis of secondary metabolites,microbial metabolism in different environments,and biosynthesis of amino acids were regulated by Liuwei Dihuang Wan.To conclude,the changes in the structure of intestinal microbiome may be one of the potential mechanisms of Liuwei Dihuang Wan in treating premature ovarian failure.Liuwei Dihuang Wan can regulate the structure of intestinal microbiome,increase the number of beneficial bacteria,reduce the number of harmful bacteria,and thus improve the balance of intestinal microbiota.This regulatory effect helps to reduce oxidative stress levels and further inhibit ovarian oxidative stress in mice with premature ovarian failure.
3.Surveillance for Aedes albopictus in Guangzhou City from 2021 to 2023
Jinhua ZHOU ; Shiyu HE ; Tong LIU ; Zhifei CHENG ; Xiaoning LI ; Yimin JIANG ; Xueying LIANG ; Zongqiu CHEN ; Pengzhe QIN
Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control 2025;37(1):76-80
Objective To investigate the population density and seasonal fluctuations of Aedes albopictus in Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province, from 2021 to 2023, so as to provide insights into A. albopictus control and management of dengue fever. Methods The surveillance of A. albopictus density was performed in all surveillance sites assigned across all streets (townships) in Guangzhou City during the period from January to December from 2021 to 2023. The surveillance frequency was twice every half month from May to September, and once every month for the rest of a year. In each surveillance period, A. albopictus mosquito larvae were captured from indoor and outdoor small water containers in residential areas, parks, medical facilities, schools, other government sectors and social organizations, construction sites, special industries and others for mosquito species identification. Adult mosquitoes were captured using electric mosquito suction apparatus for species identification and gender classification. Adult mosquitoes and mosquito eggs were collected with mosquito and egg traps at the breeding and dwelling places of Aedes mosquitoes for identification. The mosquito oviposition index (MOI), Breteau index (BI), adult mosquito density index (ADI) and standard space index (SSI) were calculated. The A. albopictus density was classified into grades 0, 1, 2 and 3 in each surveillance site, with Grade 0 density defined eligible, and the eligible rate of A. albopictus density was calculated at all surveillance sites each year from 2021 to 2023. In addition, the changing trends in MOI, SSI, BI and ADI of A. albopictus were analyzed in Guangzhou City from 2021 to 2023. Results The eligible rates of A. albopictus density were 61.69%, 68.75% and 55.15% in surveillance sites of Guangzhou City from 2021 to 2023 (χ2 = 297.712, P < 0.001), and appeared a tendency towards a reduction followed by a rise each year, which gradually reduced since January, maintained at a low level during the period between May and October, and gradually increased from November to December. The MOI, SSI, BI and ADI of A. albopictus all appeared a tendency towards a rise followed by a reduction in Guangzhou City during the period between January and December from 2021 to 2023. The BI of A. albopictus peaked in the first half of June in 2021 (4.03), the first half of July in 2022 (3.89) and the last half of August in 2023 (5.02), and the SSI of A. albopictus peaked in the last half of June in 2021 (0.93), the last half of May in 2022 (0.59), and the last half of June (0.94) and the first half of September in 2023 (1.12). In addition, the MOI of A. albopictus peaked in the first half of May in 2021 (8.64), the first half of June in 2022 (8.96), and the last half of May (10.21) and the last half of June in 2023 (10.89), and the ADI of A. albopictus peaked in the first half of June in 2021 (3.41), the last half of June in 2022 (4.06), and the first half of July in 2023 (3.61). Conclusions The density of A. albopictus is high in Guangzhou City during the period from May to October, and the risk of local outbreak caused by imported dengue fever is high. Persistent intensified surveillance of the density and seasonal fluctuation of A. albopictus is recommended and timely mosquito prevention and control is required according to the fluctuation in the A. albopictus density.
4.0.05% Cyclosporine A combined with Olopatadine eye drops for the treatment of allergic conjunctivitis-related dry eye disease
Jinfen LI ; Yue LI ; Hui HUANG ; Qianqian LAN ; Zhou ZHOU ; Wenjing HE ; Yuanjun QIN ; Li JIANG ; Fan XU
International Eye Science 2025;25(7):1152-1159
AIM: To explore the efficacy of 0.05% cyclosporine A combined with olopatadine eye drops in treating allergic conjunctivitis-related dry eye disease.METHODS: A total of 63 patients(63 eyes)with allergic conjunctivitis-related dry eye disease in the People's Hospital of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region from August 2022 to April 2023 were enrolled and randomly divided into control group(n=33)and observation group(n=30). The patients of the control group were administrated with 0.1% olopatadine eye drops and 0.3% sodium hyaluronate eye drops, while the observation group was administrated with 0.1% olopatadine eye drops and 0.05% cyclosporine A eye drops. The ocular surface disease index(OSDI), total ocular symptom score(TOSS), conjunctival congestion score, conjunctival papillae and follicle score, Schirmer I test(SⅠt), tear meniscus height(TMH), meibomian gland secretion ability and property score, meibomian gland loss area score, corneal fluorescein staining(CFS), tear film break-up time(BUT), noninvasive first tear film break-up time(NIBUTf), noninvasive average tear film break-up time(NIBUTav)before and after treatment and the drug safety during the treatment period of both groups of patients were evaluated.RESULTS: After treatment, OSDI, TOSS, conjunctival congestion score, conjunctival papillae and follicle score, SⅠt, TMH, meibomian gland secretion ability score and property score, CFS, BUT, NIBUTf, and NIBUTav of the observation group showed improvements compared with those before treatment(all P<0.017). Among these, OSDI, TOSS, conjunctival congestion score, conjunctival papillae and follicle score, BUT, NIBUTf, and NIBUTav demonstrated significant improvement compared with the control group(all P<0.05). There was no statistically significant difference in meibomian gland loss area score between the two groups before and after treatment(P>0.05). During the treatment period, there were no local or systemic adverse reactions.CONCLUSION: The combined use of 0.05% cyclosporine A and olopatadine eye drops can significantly improve ocular discomfort symptoms of patients with dry eye disease associated with allergic conjunctivitis, such as red eyes, itchy eyes and foreign body sensation, promote tear film stability and have high safety.
5.Association between medium to long term ambient PM 2.5 exposure and overweight/obesity among primary and secondary school students
Chinese Journal of School Health 2025;46(7):937-940
Objective:
To investigate the association between medium to long term PM 2.5 exposure around school areas and overweight/obesity among primary and secondary school students in Guangxi, providing data support and theoretical foundations for scientifically addressing overweight and obesity in primary and secondary school students.
Methods:
From September to November 2023, a stratified cluster random sampling method was employed to select 251 183 students aged 7-18 years (grade 1 to grade 12) from 14 prefecture level cities (111 districts and counties) in Guangxi. PM 2.5 mass concentration data were obtained from the Tracking Air Pollution in China (TAP) dataset. Preliminary comparative analysis was conducted using the Mann-Whitney U test, while binary Logistic regression models were applied to quantify the relationship between PM 2.5 exposure and overweight/obesity. Restricted cubic spline analysis was further utilized to examine the nonlinear association between PM 2.5 concentration and overweight/obesity risk.
Results:
The detection rate of overweight/obesity among Guangxi students in 2023 was 19.5%. The median PM 2.5 concentration in the year prior to the study was higher in the overweight/obesity group (23.22 μg/m 3) compared to the non overweight/obesity group (22.63 μg/m 3) ( Z=-15.66, P <0.01), and consistent trends were observed across gender (male/female) and educational stage (primary/junior/senior high school) subgroups (all P <0.01). Binary Logistic regression revealed that for every 10 μg/m 3 increase in the annual average PM 2.5 concentration, the risk of overweight/obesity increased by 12% ( OR=1.12, 95%CI=1.09- 1.15 , P <0.01). Restricted cubic spline analysis indicated a nonlinear relationship between monthly PM 2.5 levels and overweight/obesity risk ( P trend <0.01). Below 22.68 μg/m 3, PM 2.5 exposure showed no significant association with obesity risk; above the threshold, the risk increased with rising PM 2.5 levels.
Conclusion
Medium to long term PM 2.5 exposure around school environments is significantly associated with overweight/obesity among primary and secondary school students.
6.Application of Gas Chromatography Ion Mobility Spectrometry Technology Combined with Chemometric Methods in Identification of Foeniculi Fructus from Haiyuan Region
Xiurong TIAN ; Hao WANG ; Kejing PANG ; Penglong YU ; Xia LIU ; Mengyue SHEN ; Xianglin JIANG ; Yonghua LI ; Zhihong LI ; Hongqiong DING ; Qin YANG ; Xingying LI ; Qian XIONG ; Guochao WAN ; Yuexiang MA ; Zhenping LIU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(17):184-192
ObjectiveTo establish a geographical origin identification model for Foeniculi Fructus from Haiyuan, providing a new technical reference for the protection of Haiyuan's geo-authentic medicinal materials and its designation as a national geographical indication agricultural product. MethodsSamples of Foeniculi Fructus were collected from eight producing areas, including Minqin (Gansu), Bozhou (Anhui), Qingdao (Shandong), Dezhou (Shandong), Urumqi (Xinjiang), Nujiang (Yunnan), Gutuo (Inner Mongolia), and Haiyuan (Ningxia). Gas chromatography-ion mobility spectrometry (GC-IMS) was used to detect the volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in samples from these geographic origins. VOCs were qualitatively analyzed through dual matching with the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) mass spectral database and the IMS drift time database. Using the Reporter module and Gallery Plot visualization tools within the LAV analytical platform, VOC fingerprint profiles characterizing geographic origins were constructed. A non-targeted analytical strategy was adopted, and 97 VOCs detected via GC-IMS were subjected to principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) based on their differential distribution patterns to construct an origin identification model for Foeniculi Fructus from Haiyuan region. Key discriminative markers were screened using variable importance in projection (VIP) values greater than 1. ResultsA total of 97 VOCs were identified, including alcohols, aldehydes, ketones, esters, organic acids, terpenoids, ethers, alkenes, and benzenes. The PLS-DA model, based on VOCs data obtained by GC-IMS, effectively distinguished Foeniculi Fructus in Haiyuan region from those of other origins. During cross-validation, the model achieved a prediction parameter (Q2) of 0.976 and a goodness-of-fit parameter (R2) of 0.936, with no overfitting observed in permutation testing. Twelve key flavor markers with VIP > 1 were identified as characteristic indicators of Haiyuan origin. ConclusionA stable and highly predictive origin identification model for Foeniculi Fructus from Haiyuan was successfully established using GC-IMS technology, PLS-DA, and VIP-based marker screening. This model provides a novel technical strategy for accurately distinguishing Foeniculi Fructus in Haiyuan region from other regional varieties and offers new technical support for its protection as a geo-authentic medicinal material and a nationally designated geographical indication agricultural product in China.
7.Application of Gas Chromatography Ion Mobility Spectrometry Technology Combined with Chemometric Methods in Identification of Foeniculi Fructus from Haiyuan Region
Xiurong TIAN ; Hao WANG ; Kejing PANG ; Penglong YU ; Xia LIU ; Mengyue SHEN ; Xianglin JIANG ; Yonghua LI ; Zhihong LI ; Hongqiong DING ; Qin YANG ; Xingying LI ; Qian XIONG ; Guochao WAN ; Yuexiang MA ; Zhenping LIU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(17):184-192
ObjectiveTo establish a geographical origin identification model for Foeniculi Fructus from Haiyuan, providing a new technical reference for the protection of Haiyuan's geo-authentic medicinal materials and its designation as a national geographical indication agricultural product. MethodsSamples of Foeniculi Fructus were collected from eight producing areas, including Minqin (Gansu), Bozhou (Anhui), Qingdao (Shandong), Dezhou (Shandong), Urumqi (Xinjiang), Nujiang (Yunnan), Gutuo (Inner Mongolia), and Haiyuan (Ningxia). Gas chromatography-ion mobility spectrometry (GC-IMS) was used to detect the volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in samples from these geographic origins. VOCs were qualitatively analyzed through dual matching with the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) mass spectral database and the IMS drift time database. Using the Reporter module and Gallery Plot visualization tools within the LAV analytical platform, VOC fingerprint profiles characterizing geographic origins were constructed. A non-targeted analytical strategy was adopted, and 97 VOCs detected via GC-IMS were subjected to principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) based on their differential distribution patterns to construct an origin identification model for Foeniculi Fructus from Haiyuan region. Key discriminative markers were screened using variable importance in projection (VIP) values greater than 1. ResultsA total of 97 VOCs were identified, including alcohols, aldehydes, ketones, esters, organic acids, terpenoids, ethers, alkenes, and benzenes. The PLS-DA model, based on VOCs data obtained by GC-IMS, effectively distinguished Foeniculi Fructus in Haiyuan region from those of other origins. During cross-validation, the model achieved a prediction parameter (Q2) of 0.976 and a goodness-of-fit parameter (R2) of 0.936, with no overfitting observed in permutation testing. Twelve key flavor markers with VIP > 1 were identified as characteristic indicators of Haiyuan origin. ConclusionA stable and highly predictive origin identification model for Foeniculi Fructus from Haiyuan was successfully established using GC-IMS technology, PLS-DA, and VIP-based marker screening. This model provides a novel technical strategy for accurately distinguishing Foeniculi Fructus in Haiyuan region from other regional varieties and offers new technical support for its protection as a geo-authentic medicinal material and a nationally designated geographical indication agricultural product in China.
8.Study on the 90-day Feeding Experimental Background Data of SD Rats for Drug Safety Evaluation
Chao QIN ; Shuangxing LI ; Tingting ZHAO ; Chenchen JIANG ; Jing ZHAO ; Yanwei YANG ; Zhi LIN ; Sanlong WANG ; Hairuo WEN
Laboratory Animal and Comparative Medicine 2025;45(4):439-448
ObjectiveTo establish background data for a 90-day feeding trial of SD rats to ensure the reliability of research data. MethodsBackground data from six independent 90-day feeding trials of SD rats conducted by the National Center for Safety Evaluation of Drugs from 2020 to 2023 were summarized. These studies involved a blank control group of 120 SPF-grade 4-week-old SD rats, with an equal number of males and females, which were only given standard full-nutrient pelleted rat feed. After the quarantine period, the animals were observed for an additional 90 days, followed by intraperitoneal injection of Zoletil (50 mg/mL) for anesthesia, blood sampling, euthanasia, and necropsy. By analyzing the data from the blank control group, a relevant background database for SD rats was established. ResultsBoth male and female rats exhibited steady weight gain, with a more pronounced increase in male rats. Within 90 days, the average body weight of male and female rats increased to over 500 g and 300 g, respectively. Three weeks later, the average daily food intake of male rats stabilized at approximately 25~28 g per rat, while that of female rats remained stable at approximately 16~19 g per rat. The food utilization rate of all animals gradually decreased from the first week of the experiment. In the white blood cell (WBC) differential count results, significant differences were observed in the counts of WBCs, neutrophils (Neut), lymphocytes (Lymph), and monocytes (Mono) between males and females (P<0.001). However, there were no significant differences in the percentages of neutrophil (%Neut), lymphocyte (%Lymph), and monocyte (%Mono) between the sexes (P>0.05). The average red blood cell count (RBC), hemoglobin concentration (HGB), hematocrit (HCT), platelet count (PLT), prothrombin time (PT), and activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT) were higher in male animals than in female animals (P<0.05). The average values of alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), creatine phosphokinase (CK), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), glucose (GLU), and triglyceride (TG) in male rats were higher than those in female rats (P<0.05). The urinary pH range for male animals was 5.0 to 8.5, while for female animals it was 6.5 to 9.0. The majority of male animals had a urinary specific gravity lower than 1.020, and the majority of female animals had a urinary specific gravity lower than 1.015. The weights of various organs (excluding the adrenal glands and reproductive organs) in male animals were heavier than those in female animals (P<0.001), while the organ/body weight ratios (excluding the kidneys and reproductive organs) of female animals were higher than those of male animals (P<0.001). ConclusionThis study summarizes the background reference ranges for body weight, food intake, hematology, and serum biochemistry indicators in SPF-grade SD rats in the untreated control group from six 90-day feeding trials conducted by the National Center for Safety Evaluation of Drugs. It provides important reference data for related research. By summarizing the background and spontaneous histopathological changes in rats, this study aids in the standardization and normalization of subsequent research, as well as in the evaluation and analysis of abnormal results.
9.Investigation of an outbreak of group A human G9P [8] rotavirus infectious diarrhea among adults in Chongqing
Yang WANG ; Yuan KONG ; Ning CHEN ; Lundi YANG ; Jiang LONG ; Qin LI ; Xiaoyang XU ; Wei ZHENG ; Hong WEI ; Jie LU ; Quanjie XIAO ; Yingying BA ; Wenxi WU ; Qian XU ; Ju YAN
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(8):663-668
ObjectiveTo investigate and analyze an outbreak of rotavirus infectious diarrhea in a prison in Chongqing Municipality, to provide a basis for adult rotavirus surveillance and prevention, and to explore the public health problems in special settings. MethodsA retrospective survey was conducted to collect and analyze data on individual cases with diarrheal disease on-site. The clinical characteristics, as well as the temporal, spatial and geographical distribution patterns of the epidemic were described. Multi-pathogen detection tests were conducted both on diarrhea cases and environmental samples, with viral genotyping performed on positive samples. A case-control analysis was performed to identify the causes of the outbreak, and an SEIR model was adopted to predict the outbreak trend and evaluate the effectiveness of interventions. ResultsA total of 65 cases were found among the inmates, with an attack rate of 2.03%. The predominant clinical manifestations included diarrhea (89.23%), watery stool (73.85%), and dehydration (18.46%). The epidemic curve indicated a “human-to-human” transmission pattern, with an average incubation period of 5‒6 days. The attack rates among chefs in the main canteen (80.00%, 8/10) and caterers (28.33%, 17/60) were significantly higher than those of other inmates (P<0.05). Multi-pathogen polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing detected positive for group A rotavirus, with the viral genotyping identified as G9P [8] strain. Factors such as unprotected "bare-handed" food distribution among cases with diarrhea (OR=9.512, 95%CI: 4.261‒21.234) and close contact with diarrhea cases (OR=3.656, 95%CI: 1.719‒7.778) were the possible cause of the outbreak. The SEIR model (r0=5, α=0.3, β1=0.08, β2=0.04) was constructed using prison inmates as susceptible population, aiming at fitting the initial transmission trend of the outbreak, and the epidemic rate declined rapidly after intervention measures were implemented (rt≈0). ConclusionThis rare rotavirus infection diarrhea outbreak among adults in confined settings suggests that the construction of public health prevention and control systems in prison may be overlooked. Cross infection during meal processing and distribution in the canteens of such settings is likely to be the cause of the outbreak. Given the potential neglect of public heath system construction in special settings, it is imperative to enhance the surveillance and monitoring of rotavirus and other intestinal multi-pathogens among adults, as well as the construction of public health prevention and control systems in these special settings.
10.Development of a nomogram-based risk prediction model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease incidence in community-dwelling population aged 40 years and above in Shanghai
Yixuan ZHANG ; Yiling WU ; Jinxin ZANG ; Xuyan SU ; Xin YIN ; Jing LI ; Wei LUO ; Minjun YU ; Wei WANG ; Qi ZHAO ; Qin WANG ; Genming ZHAO ; Yonggen JIANG ; Na WANG
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(8):669-675
ObjectiveTo develop a nomogram-based risk prediction model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) incidence among the community-dwelling population aged 40 years old and above, so as to provide targeted references for the screening and prevention of COPD. MethodsBased on a natural population cohort in suburban Shanghai, a total of 3 381 randomly selected participants aged ≥40 years underwent pulmonary function tests between July and October 2021. Cox stepwise regression analysis was used to develop overall and gender-specific risk prediction models, along with the construction of corresponding risk nomograms. Model predictive performance was evaluated using the C-indice, area under the curve (AUC) values, and Brier score. Stability was assessed through 10-fold cross-validation and sensitivity analysis. ResultsA total of 3 019 participants were included, with a median follow-up duration of 4.6 years. The COPD incidence density was 17.22 per 1 000 person-years, significantly higher in males (32.04/1 000 person-years) than that in females (7.38/1 000 person-years) (P<0.001). The overall risk prediction model included the variables such as gender, age, education level, BMI, smoking, passive smoking, and respiratory comorbidities. The male-specific model incorporated the variables such as age, BMI, respiratory comorbidities, and smoking, while the female-specific model included age, marital status, respiratory comorbidities, and pulmonary tuberculosis history. The C-indices for the overall, male-specific, and female-specific models were 0.829, 0.749, and 0.807, respectively. The 5-year AUC values were 0.785, 0.658, and 0.811, with Brier scores of 0.103, 0.176, and 0.059, respectively. Both 10-fold cross-validated C-indices and sensitivity analysis (excluding participants with a follow-up duration of <6 months) yielded C-indices were above 0.740. ConclusionThis study developed concise and practical overall and gender-specific COPD risk prediction models and corresponding nomograms. The models demonstrated robust performance in predicting COPD incidence, providing a valuable reference for identifying high-risk populations and formulating targeted screening and personalized management strategies.


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