1.Research on the prediction of internet outpatient visits in public hospitals based on ARIMA and GM(1,1)model
Yanjie XU ; Liang XIN ; Junqing LIU ; Yan LI ; Shiyun LI ; Ruozhen WANG ; Honglei DONG
Modern Hospital 2024;24(1):14-19
Objective To understand the changing trend of Internet outpatient visits in public hospitals,and provide support for the development planning of Internet hospitals.Methods Using the data of Internet outpatient visits in a public hos-pital from January 2021 to June 2023,the ARIMA model and GM(1,1)model were constructed respectively.The mean absolute error(MAE)and root mean square error(RMSE)were used to evaluate the fitting effect,and the Internet outpatient visits from July to December 2023 were predicted based on the dominance model.Results ARIMA(1,2,1)model and GM(1,1)model were used to predict the number of return visits of Internet outpatient service.The average absolute errors were 369.86 and 978.84,and the root-mean-square errors were 479.49 and 1444.83,respectively.The ARIMA(0,1,0)model and GM(1,1)model were used to predict the number of Internet outpatient consultations.The average absolute errors were 297.23 and 369.62,and the root-mean-square errors were 413.61 and 496.30,respectively,indicating that the ARIMA model has a good prediction effect.The forecast results show that the predicted value of Internet outpatient visits in December 2023 is 14,831 cases,and the predicted value of consultation visits is 7461 cases.Conclusion The number of Internet outpatient visits in a public hospital will continue to rise from 2021 to 2023.Therefore,hospitals should fully realize the importance of Internet medical services,take ac-tive measures to continuously optimize the medical service model,and provide patients with high-quality,efficient and convenient Internet medical services.
2.Predictive analysis of internet-based oncology outpatient visits trend based on ARIMA and GM(1,1)models
Yanjie XU ; Liang XIN ; Junqing LIU ; Yan LI ; Shiyun LI ; Ruozhen WANG ; Henglei DONG
Modern Hospital 2024;24(2):275-279
Objective To investigate the changing trend of the current situation of Internet-based oncology outpatient treatment and provide support for the development and management of Internet hospitals.Methods The ARIMA and GM(1,1)models were constructed based on the Internet-based outpatient data of a cancer hospital from January 2021 to June 2023,and the fitting effect was evaluated by mean absolute error(MAE)and root mean square error(RMSE).Based on the model,the pro-portion of Internet-based outpatient visits and the offline outpatient visits were predicted from July to December 2023.Results ARIMA(1,1,2)and GM(1,1)models were used to predict the proportion of Internet-based outpatient visits.The average abso-lute errors were 2.06%and 2.41%,and the root-mean-square errors were 3.01%and 3.17%,respectively.The ARIMA(0,1,1)and GM(1,1)models were used to predict the proportion of Internet-based outpatient visits to the offline outpatient visits,with the rate of the average absolute errors of 0.58%and 1.08%,respectively,and the rate of the root mean square errors 0.75%and 1.31%,respectively.The figures indicated that the ARIMA model had a better prediction effect.The forecast results showed that the predicted value of Internet outpatient service in December 2023 was 90.35%,and the predicted value of Internet-based outpatient service accounted for 16.46%of the offline outpatient service.Conclusion In 2021-2023,the proportion of Inter-net-based outpatient visits in the cancer hospital showed a steady trend,and the proportion of Internet outpatient visits in the off-line outpatient visits showed a rising trend.Therefore,hospitals need to establish a continuous monitoring mechanism,constantly adjust management strategies and measures to meet the needs of patients and continue to promote the high-quality development of Internet-based medical services.
3.Carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae drug resistance and virulence gene analysis of a Three-A hospital in Guangzhou
Ran LI ; Yuyi LIANG ; Xin SU ; Dongmei MAI ; Junqing TAN
International Journal of Laboratory Medicine 2024;45(22):2773-2778
Objective To analyze the detection rate of carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae(CRKP)in Guangdong Provincial Second Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine(the hospital)and analyze the main drug resistance genes and virulence genes of CRKP,so as to understand the molecular epidemiologi-cal mechanism of its infection strains.Methods The detection rate of CRKP infection in the hospital from 2020 to 2023 was retrospectively analyzed,and a total of 84 strains of CRKP were collected from July to De-cember 2022 in the hospital.The clinical data of the strains were collected,and the corresponding drug resist-ance genes and virulence genes were amplified by PCR.The modified carbapenem inactivation method(mCIM)was uesd to detect carbapenemase.Results The detection rates of CRKP in the Guangdong Provincial Second Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine from 2020 to 2023 were relatively high,and were higher than 46.00%.84 non-repeated CRKP strains were collected from July to December of 2022,and most samples were from respiratory tract,accounting for 55.95%.The patients were mainly from acupuncture and rehabilitation departments,accounting for 34.52%.Drug sensitivity tests showed that CRKP was highly resistant to various cephalosporin and extended spectrum beta lactam drugs,and only showed high sensitivity to tigecycline and polymyxin.The positive rate of mCIM test was 84.52%(71/84),and the other 15.48%results were neutral,which failed to determine whether they produced carbapenemase.A total of 73 strains were detected with car-bapenemase gene,accounting for 86.90%,involving 4 genotypes.The detection rates of blaKPC,blaNDM,blaIMP,and blaOXA-48 were 83.33%,2.38%,1.19%,and 1.19%,respectively.One of them carried both blaKPC and blaNDM genes,and multiple β-lactamases were detected.The detection rates of blaSHV,bla-TEM,blaCTX-M-9,and blaCTX-M-1 were 96.43%,78.57%,64.29%,and 2.38%,respectively.The detection rates of five virulence genes,blaiucA,blarmpA2,blairoB,blapeg-334,and blarmpA,were 42.86%,41.67%,27.38%,3.57%,and 2.38%,respectively.The proportion of strains carrying three or more virulence genes was 17.85%(15/84).Conclusion The detection rate of CRKP in the hospital is relatively high,and the drug resistance situation is serious,with Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase(KPC)as the main drug resistance gene.A high proportion of Carbapenem-resistant hypervirulent Klebsiella pneumoniae(CR-hvKp)strains is found,and the infection prevention and control situation is not optimistic.It is necessary to further strengthen the hospital infection control measures and standardize the scientific and reasonable drug use.
4.Construction of a prediction model for difficult tracheal intubation in patients with obstructive sleep apnea-hypopnea syndrome
Junqing LI ; Ning CAI ; Dongfeng LIANG ; Di WU ; Guanghong CHEN ; Hao YUAN
Chinese Journal of Anesthesiology 2023;43(6):692-696
Objective:To construct a prediction model for difficult tracheal intubation in the patients with obstructive sleep apnea-hypopnea syndrome (OSAHS).Methods:A total of 324 patients with OSAHS undergoing surgery with general anesthesia, admitted to our hospital from June 2019 to June 2021, were included in model group, and 175 patients with OSAHS undergoing surgery with general anesthesia, admitted from July 2021 to July 2022, were selected and served as validation group. The patients in model group were divided into occurrence group and non-occurrence group according to whether difficult tracheal intubation occurred. Logistic regression was used to construct the prediction model, and R4.2.1 software was used to draw the risk nomogram and calibration curve. The predictive accuracy of the model was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.Results:Body mass index (BMI), sagittal minimum cross-sectional area, horizontal minimum cross-sectional area and mandibular distance were risk factors for difficult tracheal intubation in OSAHS patients ( P<0.05). A prediction model was developed using the above factors: Logit P=33.726+ 1.411×BMI score-0.014×sagittal airway minimum cross-sectional area-0.013×airway horizontal minimum cross-sectional area-0.312× mandibular distance. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.846, Youden index 0.585, sensitivity 0.831, specificity 0.755, and the accuracy 0.889 (Hosmer-Lemeshow test χ2=9.24, P=0.322) in model group. The area under the external validation curve was 0.802, Youden index 0.545, sensitivity 0.636, specificity 0.908, and the accuracy 0.893 (Hosmer-Lemeshow test χ2=10.24, P=0.287) in validation group. Conclusions:The prediction model based on BMI, sagittal minimum cross-sectional area of airway, horizontal minimum cross-sectional area of airway and mandibular distance has a high value in predicting the risk of difficult tracheal intubation in patients with OSAHS.
5.Cost-effectiveness analysis of different screening modes for thalassemia in Hunan Province
Hui XI ; Qin LIU ; Donghua XIE ; Xu ZHOU ; Wanglan TANG ; Deguo TANG ; Chunyan ZENG ; Qiong WANG ; Xinghui NIE ; Jinping PENG ; Xiaoya GAO ; Hongliang WU ; Haoqing ZHANG ; Li QIU ; Zonghui FENG ; Shuyuan WANG ; Shuxiang ZHOU ; Jun HE ; Shihao ZHOU ; Faqun ZHOU ; Junqing ZHENG ; Hua WANG ; Junqun FANG ; Changbiao LIANG
Chinese Journal of Perinatal Medicine 2023;26(6):468-475
Objective:To analyze the costs and effectiveness of five common screening modes and genetic screening for thalassemia in China in order to find the optimal way and provide evidence for the implementation of thalassemia prevention and control projects in Hunan Province.Methods:From June 2020 to April 2021, 12 971 couples from 14 cities and autonomous prefectures in Hunan Province were selected as the study population. The diagnosis of thalassemia was based on the results of genetic testing. Results of routine blood test and hemoglobin electrophoresis were collected and analyzed. The efficacy of five screening modes, at the cut-off value of <80 fl or 82 fl for the mean corpuscular volume (MCV), was analyzed by positive predictive value, negative predictive value, Jorden index and cost-effectiveness ratio. Sensitivity analysis was used to assess the feasibility of genetic screening at different costs after fixing the costs of routine blood and hemoglobin electrophoresis. The five thalassemia screening models are as follows: Mode 1: The woman had a blood routine test first. If the result was positive, the spouse required a blood routine test. If both results were positive, a thalassemia gene test should be offered to the couple. Mode 2: Both husband and wife were screened by blood routine and hemoglobin electrophoresis. If one or both of them were positive, both would be tested for thalassemia gene. Mode 3: The couple received blood routine tests initially. If either was positive, both should receive hemoglobin electrophoresis testing. If either was positive, both parties will conduct thalassemia gene testing. Mode 4: The woman was screened by blood routine and hemoglobin electrophoresis. If any one of them was positive, the woman would be tested for thalassemia gene. If the gene test result was positive, the spouse should receive thalassemia gene. Mode 5: Both spouses conducted a blood routine test. If either was positive, both would conduct hemoglobin electrophoresis test. If both were positive, both spouses should receive thalassemia gene testing. Gene testing mode: The woman would be tested for thalassemia, and her spouse would have thalassemia test too if her result was positive.Results:When using MCV<80 fl as the cut-off for diagnosing thalassemia, the Youden indices of the five prenatal screening modes in Hunan Province were 0.551, 0.639, 0.898, 0.555 and 0.356, while when using MCV<82 fl as the cut-off, the Youden indices were 0.549, 0.629, 0.851, 0.548 and 0.356. When the MCV cut-off value was <80 fl, the missed diagnosis rates of the five screening modes were 44.44%, 0.00, 0.00, 18.52% and 62.96%, and the cost-effectiveness ratios were 21 709, 250 939, 76 870, 138 463 and 92 860 yuan (RMB)/couple, respectively. When the price of genetic testing was lower than 55 yuan (RMB), the cost-effectiveness ratio of genetic screening was lower than that of Mode 3.Conclusions:MCV<80 fl can be considered as the positive criteria in blood routine screening for thalassemia in Hunan Province, and the cost-effectiveness ratio of Mode 3 (the couple received blood routine tests initially. If either was positive, both should receive hemoglobin electrophoresis testing. If either was positive, both parties will conduct thalassemia gene testing) is the best. Genetic screening has certain advantages with the decreasing price.
6.Repositioning of clinically approved drug Bazi Bushen capsule for treatment of Alzheimer's disease using network pharma-cology approach and in vitro experimental validation
Tongxing WANG ; Meng CHEN ; Bin HOU ; Junqing LIANG ; Cong WEI ; Zhenhua JIA
Chinese Journal of Pharmacology and Toxicology 2023;37(z1):22-23
OBJECTIVE To explore the new indications and key mechanism of Bazi Bushen capsule(BZBS)by network pharmacology and in vitro experiment.METHODS The potential tar-get profiles of the components of BZBS were pre-dicted.Subsequently,new indications for BZBS were predicted by disease ontology(DO)enrich-ment analysis and initially validated by GO and KEGG pathway enrichment analysis.Further-more,the therapeutic target of BZBS acting on AD signaling pathway were identified by intersec-tion analysis.Two Alzheimer's disease(AD)cell models,BV-2 and SH-SY5Y,were used to pre-liminarily verify the anti-AD efficacy and mecha-nism of BZBS in vitro.RESULTS In total,1499 non-repeated ingredients were obtained from 16 herbs in BZBS formula,and 1320 BZBS targets with high confidence were predicted.Disease enrichment results strongly suggested that BZBS formula has the potential to be used in the treat-ment of AD.In vitro experiments showed that BZ-BS could significantly reduce the release of TNF-α and IL-6 and the expression of COX-2 and PSEN1 in A β 25-35-induced BV-2 cells.BZBS reduced the apoptosis rate of A β 25-35 induced SH-SY5Y cells,significantly increased mitochon-drial membrane potential,reduced the expres-sion of Caspase3 active fragment and PSEN1,and increased the expression of IDE.CONCLU-SIONS BZBS formula has a potential use in the treatment of AD,which is achieved through regu-lation of ERK1/2,NF-κB signaling pathways,and GSK-3β/β-catenin signaling pathway.Further-more,the network pharmacology technology is a feasible drug repurposing strategy to reposition new clinical use of approved TCM and explore the mechanism of action.The study lays a foun-dation for the subsequent in-depth study of BZBS in the treatment of AD and provides a basis for its application in the clinical treatment of AD.
7.Exploring the mechanism of Bazi Bushen capsule in delaying the senescence of mesen-chymal stem cells by network pharmacology method and verifying it in vitro
Yaping ZHANG ; Tongxing WANG ; Junqing LIANG ; Cong WEI
Chinese Journal of Pharmacology and Toxicology 2023;37(z1):39-39
OBJECTIVE To explore the key mechanism of Bazi Bushen capsule(BZBS)in delaying the senescence of mesenchymal stem cells(MSCs)through network pharmacology and in vitro experiments.METHODS Network phar-macology was used to predict the mechanism targets of BZBS in delaying MSCs senescence.A MSCs senescence model induced by D-galac-tose(D-gal)was used to investigate the effect and mechanism of BZBS on MSCs senescence in vitro.RESULTS Network pharmacology analy-sis showed that BZSB could delay MSCs senes-cence.The experiment showed that BZBS could significantly improve the survival activity of the aged MSCs.It significantly reduced the positive rate of β-galactosidase staining and p16,p21 expression in aged MSCs,enhanced the ability of adipogenic differentiation and osteogenic differ-entiation,and increased expression of Nanog,OCT4 and SOX2 in senescent MSCs.CONCLU-SIONS Network pharmacology and in vitro cell experiments verified that BZBS could delay MSCs senescence.
8.Biological characteristics of NKTcells and theirroles in anti-tumorimmunity
GUO Weichun ; LIANG Junqing ; JIA Shaochang
Chinese Journal of Cancer Biotherapy 2019;26(8):921-924
NKT细胞是一类特殊的T淋巴细胞亚群,既表达NK 细胞受体,也表达T细胞的相关受体。NKT细胞在多种免疫应答 的调节中发挥重要作用,包括感染、自身免疫性疾病、代谢性疾病和癌症,其通过连接固有免疫系统和适应性免疫系统显示出强大 的抗肿瘤活性。NKT细胞不仅能杀伤肿瘤细胞,也可激活其他抗肿瘤免疫细胞间接地发挥抗肿瘤作用,还能在肿瘤微环境中激活 衰竭的免疫细胞,在抗肿瘤免疫中发挥重要的作用。本文就NKT细胞的生物学特性及其在抗肿瘤免疫中的作用作一综述。
9.In Vitro and In Vivo Study on the Effect of Lysosome-associated Protein Transmembrane 4 Beta on the Progression of Breast Cancer
Deyou TAO ; Junqing LIANG ; Yihong PAN ; Yanting ZHOU ; Ying FENG ; Lin ZHANG ; Jingjing XU ; Hui WANG ; Ping HE ; Jie YAO ; Yang ZHAO ; Qinjie NING ; Wen WANG ; Wei JIANG ; Jing ZHENG ; Xia WU
Journal of Breast Cancer 2019;22(3):375-386
PURPOSE: Although the effect of lysosome-associated protein transmembrane 4 beta (LAPTM4B) on the proliferation, migration, and invasion of breast cancer (BC) cells has already been studied, its specific role in BC progression is still elusive. Here, we evaluated the effect of different levels of LAPTM4B expression on the proliferation, invasion, adhesion, and tumor formation abilities of BC cells in vitro, as well as on breast tumor progression in vivo. METHODS: We investigated the influence of LAPTM4B expression on MCF-7 cell proliferation, invasion, adhesion, and tube formation abilities in vitro through its overexpression or knockdown and on breast tumor progression in vivo. RESULTS: Cell growth curves and colony formation assays showed that LAPTM4B promoted the proliferation of breast tumor cells. Cell cycle analysis results revealed that LAPTM4B promoted the entry of cells from the G1 into the S phase. Transwell invasion and cell extracellular matrix adhesion assays showed that LAPTM4B overexpression increased the invasion and adhesion capabilities of MCF-7 cells. More branches were observed in MCF-7 cells overexpressing LAPTM4B under an electron microscope. In comparison with LAPTM4B overexpression, LAPTM4B knockdown decreased the expression of vascular endothelial growth factor-A and significantly inhibited the vasculogenic tube formation ability of tumors. These results were also verified with western blot analysis. CONCLUSION: LAPTM4B promoted the proliferation of MCF-7 cells through the downregulation of p21 (WAF1/CIP1) and caspase-3, and induced cell invasion, adhesion, and angiogenesis through the upregulation of hypoxia-inducible factor 1 alpha, matrix metalloproteinase 2 (MMP2), and MMP9 expression. This specific role deems LAPTM4B as a potential therapeutic target for BC treatment.
Blotting, Western
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Breast Neoplasms
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Breast
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Caspase 3
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Cell Cycle
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Disease Progression
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Down-Regulation
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Extracellular Matrix
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Hypoxia-Inducible Factor 1
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In Vitro Techniques
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Matrix Metalloproteinase 2
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MCF-7 Cells
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S Phase
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Up-Regulation
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Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor A
10.Success rate and influencing factors of external cephalic version for singleton pregnancies in the third trimester
Junqing LONG ; Hongwei WEI ; Hongwei XIA ; Lin KONG ; Liang SONG ; Qinling YANG ; Yuqin QIN
Chinese Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology 2019;54(8):516-521
Objective To investigate the factors associated with the success rate of external cephalic version (ECV) for singleton and non-cephalic presentation pregnancies in the third trimester.Methods A retrospective study of ECV among singleton and non-cephalic presentation pregnant women in 36-40 weeks of gestation at Maternal and Child Health Hospital of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region from January 2016 to June 2018 was analyzed.Results (1) Totally,251 cases of 358 pregnant women who underwent ECV were successful,with a total success rate of 70.1% (251/358).The success rate of multipara was 79.1% (129/163),while 62.6% (122/195) in primipara (P<0.01).The total vaginal delivery rate was 52.2% (187/358),the vaginal delivery rate of multipara was 61.3% (100/163),while 44.6% (87/195) in primipara (P<0.01).(2) Spontaneous reversion occurred in 7.6%(19/251) of ECV successful women,the rate of reversion of multipara was 10.9% (14/129),higher than that of the primipara [4.1% (5/122);P<0.01].(3) Among the 232 pregnant women who did not reverted after successful ECV,187 cases of successful vaginal delivery,the vaginal delivery rate was 80.6% (187/232);the vaginal delivery rate of the multipara was 87.0%(100/115),which was higher than that of the primipara [74.4%(87/117);P<0.01].(4) The variables significantly associated with ECV success were parity,type of breech,whether fetal presentation was in pelvic or not (all P<0.05).The complication rate was 2.2% (8/358),among which the incidence of fetal distress,placental abruption and transient fetal heart abnormalities were 0.6% (2/358),0.3% (1/358) and 1.4% (5/358) respectively.Conclusion By close monitoring,ECV is a safe and effective procedure in selected appropriate cases,and worthy of clinical application.

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