1.Controllability Analysis of Structural Brain Networks in Young Smokers
Jing-Jing DING ; Fang DONG ; Hong-De WANG ; Kai YUAN ; Yong-Xin CHENG ; Juan WANG ; Yu-Xin MA ; Ting XUE ; Da-Hua YU
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2025;52(1):182-193
ObjectiveThe controllability changes of structural brain network were explored based on the control and brain network theory in young smokers, this may reveal that the controllability indicators can serve as a powerful factor to predict the sleep status in young smokers. MethodsFifty young smokers and 51 healthy controls from Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology were enrolled. Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) was used to construct structural brain network based on fractional anisotropy (FA) weight matrix. According to the control and brain network theory, the average controllability and the modal controllability were calculated. Two-sample t-test was used to compare the differences between the groups and Pearson correlation analysis to examine the correlation between significant average controllability and modal controllability with Fagerström Test of Nicotine Dependence (FTND) in young smokers. The nodes with the controllability score in the top 10% were selected as the super-controllers. Finally, we used BP neural network to predict the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) in young smokers. ResultsThe average controllability of dorsolateral superior frontal gyrus, supplementary motor area, lenticular nucleus putamen, and lenticular nucleus pallidum, and the modal controllability of orbital inferior frontal gyrus, supplementary motor area, gyrus rectus, and posterior cingulate gyrus in the young smokers’ group, were all significantly different from those of the healthy controls group (P<0.05). The average controllability of the right supplementary motor area (SMA.R) in the young smokers group was positively correlated with FTND (r=0.393 0, P=0.004 8), while modal controllability was negatively correlated with FTND (r=-0.330 1, P=0.019 2). ConclusionThe controllability of structural brain network in young smokers is abnormal. which may serve as an indicator to predict sleep condition. It may provide the imaging evidence for evaluating the cognitive function impairment in young smokers.
2.The effect of rutaecarpine on improving fatty liver and osteoporosis in MAFLD mice
Yu-hao ZHANG ; Yi-ning LI ; Xin-hai JIANG ; Wei-zhi WANG ; Shun-wang LI ; Ren SHENG ; Li-juan LEI ; Yu-yan ZHANG ; Jing-rui WANG ; Xin-wei WEI ; Yan-ni XU ; Yan LIN ; Lin TANG ; Shu-yi SI
Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica 2025;60(1):141-149
Metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) and osteoporosis (OP) are two very common metabolic diseases. A growing body of experimental evidence supports a pathophysiological link between MAFLD and OP. MAFLD is often associated with the development of OP. Rutaecarpine (RUT) is one of the main active components of Chinese medicine Euodiae Fructus. Our previous studies have demonstrated that RUT has lipid-lowering, anti-inflammatory and anti-atherosclerotic effects, and can improve the OP of rats. However, whether RUT can improve both fatty liver and OP symptoms of MAFLD mice at the same time remains to be investigated. In this study, we used C57BL/6 mice fed a high-fat diet (HFD) for 4 months to construct a MAFLD model, and gave the mice a low dose (5 mg·kg-1) and a high dose (15 mg·kg-1) of RUT by gavage for 4 weeks. The effects of RUT on liver steatosis and bone metabolism were then evaluated at the end of the experiment [this experiment was approved by the Experimental Animal Ethics Committee of Institute of Medicinal Biotechnology, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences (approval number: IMB-20190124D303)]. The results showed that RUT treatment significantly reduced hepatic steatosis and lipid accumulation, and significantly reduced bone loss and promoted bone formation. In summary, this study shows that RUT has an effect of improving fatty liver and OP in MAFLD mice.
3.The Function of FoxA Gene in Evolution, Development, and Disease
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2025;52(4):869-881
The FoxA genes belong to a conserved family of transcription factors, that play a crucial role in regulating embryonic development, cellular differentiation, and disease pathogenesis. Initially identified as hepatocyte nuclear factor 3α (Hnf3α), FoxA is pivotal in activating liver-specific genes and contributing to liver morphogenesis. Studies have shown that FoxA proteins interact with specific DNA sequences and nucleosome-bound DNA, altering the local chromatin structure to regulate gene expression. The unique ability has earned them the designation of “pioneer factors”. The FoxA family comprises three members: FoxA1, FoxA2, and FoxA3. FoxA1 is predominantly expressed in endoderm-derived organs such as the lungs, liver, pancreas, and prostate, where it regulates hormone metabolism, cell cycle, and cell proliferation. FoxA2 is primarily expressed in the floor plate of the vertebrate spinal cord, where it plays a key role in establishing the dorsal-ventral patterning of the neural tube. FoxA3 is mainly expressed in the testes, where it regulates germ cell formation. FoxA genes exhibit functional diversity in embryonic development across different species, offering insights into their evolutionary roles. For instance, zebrafish embryos with mutations in the foxa2-/- gene can survive, providing an opportunity to study embryonic development mechanisms. Currently, a growing body of research suggests that FoxA genes are involved in early embryonic development, cancer, and metabolism-related diseases. This paper summarizes the discovery, expression patterns, and biological functions of the FoxA genes while identifying key scientific questions that remain unresolved. It aims to provide readers a solid scientific basis for understanding the molecular mechanisms through which FoxA genes regulate embryonic development and contribute to cancer pathogenesis.
4.PDGF-C: an Emerging Target in The Treatment of Organ Fibrosis
Chao YANG ; Zi-Yi SONG ; Chang-Xin WANG ; Yuan-Yuan KUANG ; Yi-Jing CHENG ; Ke-Xin REN ; Xue LI ; Yan LIN
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2025;52(5):1059-1069
Fibrosis, the pathological scarring of vital organs, is a severe and often irreversible condition that leads to progressive organ dysfunction. It is particularly pronounced in organs like the liver, kidneys, lungs, and heart. Despite its clinical significance, the full understanding of its etiology and complex pathogenesis remains incomplete, posing substantial challenges to diagnosing, treating, and preventing the progression of fibrosis. Among the various molecular players involved, platelet-derived growth factor-C (PDGF-C) has emerged as a crucial factor in fibrotic diseases, contributing to the pathological transformation of tissues in several key organs. PDGF-C is a member of the PDGFs family of growth factors and is synthesized and secreted by various cell types, including fibroblasts, smooth muscle cells, and endothelial cells. It acts through both autocrine and paracrine mechanisms, exerting its biological effects by binding to and activating the PDGF receptors (PDGFRs), specifically PDGFRα and PDGFRβ. This binding triggers multiple intracellular signaling pathways, such as JAK/STAT, PI3K/AKT and Ras-MAPK pathways. which are integral to the regulation of cell proliferation, survival, migration, and fibrosis. Notably, PDGF-C has been shown to promote the proliferation and migration of fibroblasts, key effector cells in the fibrotic process, thus accelerating the accumulation of extracellular matrix components and the formation of fibrotic tissue. Numerous studies have documented an upregulation of PDGF-C expression in various fibrotic diseases, suggesting its significant role in the initiation and progression of fibrosis. For instance, in liver fibrosis, PDGF-C stimulates hepatic stellate cell activation, contributing to the excessive deposition of collagen and other extracellular matrix proteins. Similarly, in pulmonary fibrosis, PDGF-C enhances the migration of fibroblasts into the damaged areas of lungs, thereby worsening the pathological process. Such findings highlight the pivotal role of PDGF-C in fibrotic diseases and underscore its potential as a therapeutic target for these conditions. Given its central role in the pathogenesis of fibrosis, PDGF-C has become an attractive target for therapeutic intervention. Several studies have focused on developing inhibitors that block the PDGF-C/PDGFR signaling pathway. These inhibitors aim to reduce fibroblast activation, prevent the excessive accumulation of extracellular matrix components, and halt the progression of fibrosis. Preclinical studies have demonstrated the efficacy of such inhibitors in animal models of liver, kidney, and lung fibrosis, with promising results in reducing fibrotic lesions and improving organ function. Furthermore, several clinical inhibitors, such as Olaratumab and Seralutinib, are ongoing to assess the safety and efficacy of these inhibitors in human patients, offering hope for novel therapeutic options in the treatment of fibrotic diseases. In conclusion, PDGF-C plays a critical role in the development and progression of fibrosis in vital organs. Its ability to regulate fibroblast activity and influence key signaling pathways makes it a promising target for therapeutic strategies aiming at combating fibrosis. Ongoing research into the regulation of PDGF-C expression and the development of PDGF-C/PDGFR inhibitors holds the potential to offer new insights and approaches for the diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of fibrotic diseases. Ultimately, these efforts may lead to the development of more effective and targeted therapies that can mitigate the impact of fibrosis and improve patient outcomes.
5.Application of Engineered Exosomes in Tumor-targeted Therapy
Jia-Lu SONG ; Yi-Xin JIN ; Xing-Yu MU ; Yu-Huan JIANG ; Jing WANG
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2025;52(5):1140-1151
Tumors are the second leading cause of death worldwide. Exosomes are a type of extracellular vesicle secreted from multivesicular bodies, with particle sizes ranging from 40 to 160 nm. They regulate the tumor microenvironment, proliferation, and progression by transporting proteins, nucleic acids, and other biomolecules. Compared with other drug delivery systems, exosomes derived from different cells possess unique cellular tropism, enabling them to selectively target specific tissues and organs. This homing ability allows them to cross biological barriers that are otherwise difficult for conventional drug delivery systems to penetrate. Due to their biocompatibility and unique biological properties, exosomes can serve as drug delivery systems capable of loading various anti-tumor drugs. They can traverse biological barriers, evade immune responses, and specifically target tumor tissues, making them ideal carriers for anti-tumor therapeutics. This article systematically summarizes the methods for exosome isolation, including ultracentrifugation, ultrafiltration, size-exclusion chromatography (SEC), immunoaffinity capture, and microfluidics. However, these methods have certain limitations. A combination of multiple isolation techniques can improve isolation efficiency. For instance, combining ultrafiltration with SEC can achieve both high purity and high yield while reducing processing time. Exosome drug loading methods can be classified into post-loading and pre-loading approaches. Pre-loading is further categorized into active and passive loading. Active loading methods, including electroporation, sonication, extrusion, and freeze-thaw cycles, involve physical or chemical disruption of the exosome membrane to facilitate drug encapsulation. Passive loading relies on drug concentration gradients or hydrophobic interactions between drugs and exosomes for encapsulation. Pre-loading strategies also include genetic engineering and co-incubation methods. Additionally, we review approaches to enhance the targeting, retention, and permeability of exosomes. Genetic engineering and chemical modifications can improve their tumor-targeting capabilities. Magnetic fields can also be employed to promote the accumulation of exosomes at tumor sites. Retention time can be prolonged by inhibiting monocyte-mediated clearance or by combining exosomes with hydrogels. Engineered exosomes can also reshape the tumor microenvironment to enhance permeability. This review further discusses the current applications of exosomes in delivering various anti-tumor drugs. Specifically, exosomes can encapsulate chemotherapeutic agents such as paclitaxel to reduce side effects and increase drug concentration within tumor tissues. For instance, exosomes loaded with doxorubicin can mitigate cardiotoxicity and minimize adverse effects on healthy tissues. Furthermore, exosomes can encapsulate proteins to enhance protein stability and bioavailability or carry immunogenic cell death inducers for tumor vaccines. In addition to these applications, exosomes can deliver nucleic acids such as siRNA and miRNA to regulate gene expression, inhibit tumor proliferation, and suppress invasion. Beyond their therapeutic applications, exosomes also serve as tumor biomarkers for early cancer diagnosis. The detection of exosomal miRNA can improve the sensitivity and specificity of diagnosing prostate and pancreatic cancers. Despite their promising potential as drug delivery systems, challenges remain in the standardization and large-scale production of exosomes. This article explores the future development of engineered exosomes for targeted tumor therapy. Plant-derived exosomes hold potential due to their superior biocompatibility, lower toxicity, and abundant availability. Furthermore, the integration of exosomes with artificial intelligence may offer novel applications in diagnostics, therapeutics, and personalized medicine.
6.The Mechanism of Exercise Regulating Intestinal Flora in The Prevention and Treatment of Depression
Lei-Zi MIN ; Jing-Tong WANG ; Qing-Yuan WANG ; Yi-Cong CUI ; Rui WANG ; Xin-Dong MA
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2025;52(6):1418-1434
Depression, a prevalent mental disorder with significant socioeconomic burdens, underscores the urgent need for safe and effective non-pharmacological interventions. Recent advances in microbiome research have revealed the pivotal role of gut microbiota dysbiosis in the pathogenesis of depression. Concurrently, exercise, as a cost-effective and accessible intervention, has demonstrated remarkable efficacy in alleviating depressive symptoms. This comprehensive review synthesizes current evidence on the interplay among exercise, gut microbiota modulation, and depression, elucidating the mechanistic pathways through which exercise ameliorates depressive symptoms via the microbiota-gut-brain (MGB) axis. Depression is characterized by gut microbiota alterations, including reduced alpha and beta diversity, depletion of beneficial taxa (e.g., Bifidobacterium, Lactobacillus, and Coprococcus), and overgrowth of pro-inflammatory and pathogenic bacteria (e.g., Morganella, Klebsiella, and Enterobacteriaceae). Metagenomic analyses reveal disrupted metabolic functions in depressive patients, such as diminished synthesis of short-chain fatty acids (SCFAs), impaired tryptophan metabolism, and dysregulated bile acid conversion. For instance, Bifidobacterium longum deficiency correlates with reduced synthesis of neuroactive metabolites like homovanillic acid, while decreased Coprococcus abundance limits butyrate production, exacerbating neuroinflammation. Furthermore, elevated levels of indole derivatives from Clostridium species inhibit serotonin (5-HT) synthesis, contributing to depressive phenotypes. These dysbiotic profiles disrupt the MGB axis, triggering systemic inflammation, neurotransmitter imbalances, and hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis hyperactivity. Exercise exerts profound effects on gut microbiota composition, diversity, and metabolic activity. Longitudinal studies demonstrate that sustained aerobic exercise increases alpha diversity, enriches SCFA-producing genera (e.g., Faecalibacterium prausnitzii, Roseburia, and Akkermansia), and suppresses pathobionts (e.g., Desulfovibrio and Streptococcus). For example, a meta-analysis of 25 trials involving 1 044 participants confirmed that exercise enhances microbial richness and restores the Firmicutes/Bacteroidetes ratio, a biomarker of metabolic health. Notably, endurance training promotes Veillonella proliferation, which converts lactate into propionate, enhancing energy metabolism and delaying fatigue. Exercise also strengthens intestinal barrier integrity by upregulating tight junction proteins (e.g., ZO-1, occludin), thereby reducing lipopolysaccharide (LPS) translocation and systemic inflammation. However, excessive exercise may paradoxically diminish microbial diversity and exacerbate intestinal permeability, highlighting the importance of moderate intensity and duration. Exercise ameliorates depressive symptoms through multifaceted interactions with the gut microbiota, primarily via 4 interconnected pathways. First, exercise mitigates neuroinflammation by elevating anti-inflammatory SCFAs such as butyrate, which suppresses NF-κB signaling to attenuate microglial activation and oxidative stress in the hippocampus. Animal studies demonstrate that voluntary wheel running reduces hippocampal TNF‑α and IL-17 levels in stress-induced depression models, while fecal microbiota transplantation (FMT) from exercised mice reverses depressive behaviors by modulating the TLR4/NF‑κB pathway. Second, exercise regulates neurotransmitter dynamics by enriching GABA-producing Lactobacillus and Bifidobacterium, thereby counteracting neuronal hyperexcitability. Aerobic exercise also enhances the abundance of Lactobacillus plantarum and Streptococcus thermophilus, which facilitate 5-HT and dopamine synthesis. Clinical trials reveal that 12 weeks of moderate exercise increases fecal Coprococcus and Blautia abundance, correlating with improved 5-HT bioavailability and reduced depression scores. Third, exercise normalizes HPA axis hyperactivity by reducing cortisol levels and restoring glucocorticoid receptor sensitivity. In rodent models, chronic stress-induced corticosterone elevation is reversed by probiotic supplementation (e.g., Lactobacillus), which enhances endocannabinoid signaling and hippocampal neurogenesis. Furthermore, exercise upregulates brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) via microbial metabolites like butyrate, promoting histone acetylation and synaptic plasticity. FMT experiments confirm that exercise-induced microbiota elevates prefrontal BDNF expression, reversing stress-induced neuronal atrophy. Fourth, exercise reshapes microbial metabolic crosstalk, diverting tryptophan metabolism toward 5-HT synthesis instead of neurotoxic kynurenine derivatives. Butyrate inhibits indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase (IDO), a key enzyme in the kynurenine pathway linked to depression. Concurrently, exercise-induced Akkermansia enrichment enhances mucin production, fortifies the gut barrier, and reduces LPS-driven neuroinflammation. Collectively, these mechanisms underscore exercise as a potent modulator of the microbiota-gut-brain axis, offering a holistic approach to alleviating depression through microbial and neurophysiological synergy. Current evidence supports exercise as a potent adjunct therapy for depression, with personalized regimens (e.g., aerobic, resistance, or yoga) tailored to individual microbiota profiles. However, challenges remain in optimizing exercise prescriptions (intensity, duration, and type) and integrating them with probiotics, prebiotics, or FMT for synergistic effects. Future research should prioritize large-scale randomized controlled trials to validate causality, multi-omics approaches to decipher MGB axis dynamics, and mechanistic studies exploring microbial metabolites as therapeutic targets. The authors advocate for a paradigm shift toward microbiota-centric interventions, emphasizing the bidirectional relationship between physical activity and gut ecosystem resilience in mental health management. In conclusion, this review underscores exercise as a multifaceted modulator of the gut-brain axis, offering novel insights into non-pharmacological strategies for depression. By bridging microbial ecology, neuroimmunology, and exercise physiology, this work lays a foundation for precision medicine approaches targeting the gut microbiota to alleviate depressive disorders.
7.Research progress in comorbidity between epilepsy and sleep disorders
Luyao HUANG ; Jing DING ; Xin WANG
Chinese Journal of Clinical Medicine 2025;32(3):505-511
Epilepsy, which leads to an enduring high tendency to generate epileptic seizures, is a neurological disorder characterized by recurrent episodes of paroxysmal brain dysfunction due to abnormal synchronous neuronal discharges. Patients with epilepsy are usually comorbid with various sleep disorders, such as restless leg syndrome/periodic limb movement disorder (RLS/PLMD), chronic insomnia and narcolepsy. Frequent seizures may increase the risk of suffering from sleep disorders; conversely, poor control of sleep disorders exacerbates epilepsy. This review discusses common types of sleep disorders in patients with epilepsy, reveals potential mechanisms, and introduces new advances in the treatment of comorbidity between epilepsy and sleep disorders. The aim is to provide an overview of the close interactions between epilepsy and sleep disorders, providing new ideas and experiences for more effective treatment of sleep disorders and improving the prognosis of patients with epilepsy.
8.Research progress of Faricimab in the treatment of macular edema associated with retinal vascular diseases
Xinyi HOU ; Haoran WANG ; Chunhua DAI ; Jing ZHANG ; Meng XIN ; Zhixin GUAN ; Shu LIU
International Eye Science 2025;25(8):1267-1273
Intravitreal injection of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor(VEGF)agents has become the primary treatment for macular edema associated with retinal vascular disease such as diabetic retinopathy and retinal vein occlusion, but there are limitations such as variable treatment efficacy and insufficient durability of therapeutic effects. As the first bispecific antibody applied in ophthalmic treatment, Faricimab achieves favorable outcomes by simultaneously targeting both VEGF-A and angiopoietin-2(Ang-2)pathways. Based on evidence from recent clinical trials and real-world studies, this article reviews the research progress on Faricimab for the treatment of diabetic macular edema(DME), retinal vein occlusion-associated macular edema(RVO-ME)and refractory macular edema compared to the therapeutic effects of other agents. Additionally, based on Faricimab's safety characteristics and future potential, its therapeutic prospects for macular edema associated with retinal vascular diseases are discussed. This review aims to provide evidence-based references for optimizing clinical treatment strategies, thereby contributing to mitigating the risk of vision loss due to macular edema.
9.Junctophilin-2 MORN-Helix Domain: Structural Basis for Membrane Binding and Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy-associated Mutations
Jing-Xin WANG ; Zhi-Wei LI ; Wei LIU ; Wen-Qing ZHANG ; Jian-Chao LI
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2025;52(8):2103-2116
ObjectiveJunctophilin-2 (JPH2) is an essential structural protein that maintains junctional membrane complexes (JMCs) in cardiomyocytes by tethering the plasma membrane to the sarcoplasmic reticulum, thereby facilitating excitation-contraction (E-C) coupling. Mutations in JPH2 have been associated with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), but the molecular mechanisms governing its membrane-binding properties and the functional relevance of its membrane occupation and recognition nexus (MORN) repeat motifs remain incompletely understood. This study aimed to elucidate the structural basis of JPH2 membrane association and its implications for HCM pathogenesis. MethodsA recombinant N-terminal fragment of mouse JPH2 (residues1-440), encompassing the MORN repeats and an adjacent helical region, was purified under near-physiological buffer conditions.X-ray crystallography was employed to determine the structure of the JPH2 MORN-Helix domain. Sequence conservation analysis across species and junctophilin isoforms was performed to assess the evolutionary conservation of key structural features. Functional membrane-binding assays were conducted using liposome co-sedimentation and cell-based localization studies in COS7 and HeLa cells. In addition, site-directed mutagenesis targeting positively charged residues and known HCM-associated mutations, including R347C, was used to evaluate their effects on membrane interaction and subcellular localization. ResultsThe crystal structure of the mouse JPH2 MORN-Helix domain was resolved at 2.6 Å, revealing a compact, elongated architecture consisting of multiple tandem MORN motifs arranged in a curved configuration, forming a continuous hydrophobic core stabilized by alternating aromatic residues. A C-terminal α-helix further reinforced structural integrity. Conservation analysis identified the inner groove of the MORN array as a highly conserved surface, suggesting its role as a protein-binding interface. A flexible linker segment enriched in positively charged residues, located adjacent to the MORN motifs, was found to mediate direct electrostatic interactions with negatively charged phospholipid membranes. Functional assays demonstrated that mutation of these basic residues impaired membrane association, while the HCM-linked R347C mutation completely abolished membrane localization in cellular assays, despite preserving the overall MORN-Helix fold in structural modeling. ConclusionThis study provides structural insight into the membrane-binding mechanism of the cardiomyocyte-specific protein JPH2, highlighting the dual roles of its MORN-Helix domain in membrane anchoring and protein interactions. The findings clarify the structural basis for membrane targeting via a positively charged linker and demonstrate that disruption of this interaction—such as that caused by the R347C mutation—likely contributes to HCM pathogenesis. These results not only enhance current understanding of JPH2 function in cardiac E-C coupling but also offer a structural framework for future investigations into the assembly and regulation of JMCs in both physiological and disease contexts.
10.Development of a nomogram-based risk prediction model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease incidence in community-dwelling population aged 40 years and above in Shanghai
Yixuan ZHANG ; Yiling WU ; Jinxin ZANG ; Xuyan SU ; Xin YIN ; Jing LI ; Wei LUO ; Minjun YU ; Wei WANG ; Qi ZHAO ; Qin WANG ; Genming ZHAO ; Yonggen JIANG ; Na WANG
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(8):669-675
ObjectiveTo develop a nomogram-based risk prediction model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) incidence among the community-dwelling population aged 40 years old and above, so as to provide targeted references for the screening and prevention of COPD. MethodsBased on a natural population cohort in suburban Shanghai, a total of 3 381 randomly selected participants aged ≥40 years underwent pulmonary function tests between July and October 2021. Cox stepwise regression analysis was used to develop overall and gender-specific risk prediction models, along with the construction of corresponding risk nomograms. Model predictive performance was evaluated using the C-indice, area under the curve (AUC) values, and Brier score. Stability was assessed through 10-fold cross-validation and sensitivity analysis. ResultsA total of 3 019 participants were included, with a median follow-up duration of 4.6 years. The COPD incidence density was 17.22 per 1 000 person-years, significantly higher in males (32.04/1 000 person-years) than that in females (7.38/1 000 person-years) (P<0.001). The overall risk prediction model included the variables such as gender, age, education level, BMI, smoking, passive smoking, and respiratory comorbidities. The male-specific model incorporated the variables such as age, BMI, respiratory comorbidities, and smoking, while the female-specific model included age, marital status, respiratory comorbidities, and pulmonary tuberculosis history. The C-indices for the overall, male-specific, and female-specific models were 0.829, 0.749, and 0.807, respectively. The 5-year AUC values were 0.785, 0.658, and 0.811, with Brier scores of 0.103, 0.176, and 0.059, respectively. Both 10-fold cross-validated C-indices and sensitivity analysis (excluding participants with a follow-up duration of <6 months) yielded C-indices were above 0.740. ConclusionThis study developed concise and practical overall and gender-specific COPD risk prediction models and corresponding nomograms. The models demonstrated robust performance in predicting COPD incidence, providing a valuable reference for identifying high-risk populations and formulating targeted screening and personalized management strategies.

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