Discrete event simulation (DES) model is based on individual data, by which discrete events over time are simulated to reflect disease progression. The effects of individual characteristics on disease progression could be considered in the DES model. Moreover, unlike state-transition models, DES model without setting of fixed cycle can contribute to more accurate estimation of event time, especially in the evaluation of the long-term effectiveness of screening strategies for complex diseases in which time dimension needs to be considered. This article introduces the general principles, construction steps, analytic methods and other relevant issues of the DES model. Based on a research case of estimating the cost-effectiveness of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms in women aged 65 years and above in the United Kingdom, key points in applications of the DES model in analysis on effectiveness of complex disease screening are discussed in detail, including model construction and analysis and interpretation of the results. DES model can predict occurring time of discrete events accurately by establishing the distribution function of their occurring time and is increasingly used to evaluate the screening strategies for complex diseases in which time dimension needs to be considered. In the construction of DES model, it is necessary to pay close attention to the clear presentation of model structure and simulation process and follow the relevant reporting specification to conduct cost-effectiveness analysis to ensure the transparency and repeatability of the research.
Humans ; Female ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; Cost-Effectiveness Analysis ; Disease Progression

Blood stasis syndrome is one of the core clinical syndrome of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), but the biological connotation of this syndrome is not clear, and there is a lack of disease improved animal models that match the characteristics of this disease and syndrome. The aim of this study was to screen the candidate biomarker gene set of blood stasis syndrome of RA, reveal the biological connotation of this syndrome, and explore and evaluate the preparation method of the improved animal model based on the characteristics of "disease-syndrome-symptom". The study was approved by the ethics committee of Guang'anmen Hospital, Chinese Academy of Traditional Chinese Medicine (No. 2019-073-KY-01) and the First Affiliated Hospital of Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine (No. TYLL2021[K]018), and the study subjects gave their informed consent. Animal welfare and experimental procedures followed the regulations of the Experimental Animal Ethics Committee of the Chinese Academy of Traditional Chinese Medicine (No. IBTCMCACMS21-2207-01). The whole blood samples were collected clinically from RA patients with blood stasis syndrome (3 cases) or other syndromes (7 types, 3 cases/type), and healthy volunteers (4 cases), and then transcriptome sequencing, KEGG, gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) and weighted correlation network analysis (WGCNA) analysis were performed. 126 pivotal genes were screened, and their functional annotation results were significantly enriched in "immune-inflammation" related pathways and lipid metabolism regulation (sphingolipids, ether lipid metabolism and steroid biosynthesis). Syndrome-symptom mapping of hub gene set to the TCM primary and secondary symptoms, Western phenotypic symptoms and pathological links showed that joint tingling, abnormal joint morphology, petechiae and abnormal blood circulation are representative of blood stasis syndrome of RA. The results of the improved animal model showed that the rats in the collagen-induced arthritis + adrenaline hydrochloride (CIA+Adr) 3 model group had increased blood rheology, coagulation, platelet function and endothelial function abnormalities compared with the CIA-alone model group, suggesting that the rats with blood stasis syndrome of RA may be in a state of "blood stasis". The results of the study can help to advance the objective study of the evidence of blood stasis syndrome in RA, and provide new ideas for the establishment of an animal model that reflects the clinical characteristics of the disease and syndrome.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the expected population impact of benefit and risk of aspirin treatment strategies for the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases recommended by different guidelines in the Chinese Electronic Health Records Research in Yinzhou (CHERRY) study. METHODS: A decision-analytic Markov model was used to simulate and compare different strategies of aspirin treatment, including: Strategy ①: Aspirin treatment for Chinese adults aged 40-69 years with a high 10-year cardiovascular risk, recommended by the 2020 Chinese Guideline on the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Diseases; Strategy ②: Aspirin treatment for Chinese adults aged 40-59 years with a high 10-year cardiovascular risk, recommended by the 2022 United States Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement on Aspirin Use to Prevent Cardiovascular Disease; Strategy ③: Aspirin treatment for Chinese adults aged 40-69 years with a high 10-year cardiovascular risk and blood pressure well-controlled (< 150/90 mmHg), recommended by the 2019 Guideline on the Assessment and Management of Cardio-vascular Risk in China. The high 10-year cardiovascular risk was defined as the 10-year predicted risk over 10% based on the 2019 World Health Organization non-laboratory model. The Markov model simulated different strategies for ten years (cycles) with parameters mainly from the CHERRY study or published literature. Quality-adjusted life year (QALY) and the number needed to treat (NNT) for each ischemic event (including myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke) were calculated to assess the effectiveness of the different strategies. The number needed to harm (NNH) for each bleeding event (including hemorrhagic stroke and gastrointestinal bleeding) was calculated to assess the safety. The NNT for each net benefit (i.e., the difference of the number of ischemic events could be prevented and the number of bleeding events would be added) was also calculated. One-way sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty of the incidence rate of cardiovascular diseases and probabilistic sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty of hazard ratios of interventions were conducted. RESULTS: A total of 212 153 Chinese adults, were included in this study. The number of people who were recommended for aspirin treatment Strategies ①-③ was 34 235, 2 813, and 25 111, respectively. The Strategy ③ could gain the most QALY of 403 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 222-511] years. Compared with Strategy ①, Strategy ③ had similar efficiency but better safety, with the extra NNT of 4 (95%UI: 3-4) and NNH of 39 (95%UI: 19-132). The NNT per net benefit was 131 (95%UI: 102-239) for Strategy ①, 256 (95%UI: 181-737) for Strategy ②, and 132 (95%UI: 104-232) for Strategy ③, making Strategy ③ the most favorable option with a better QALY and safety, along with similar efficiency in terms of net benefit. The results were consistent in the sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION The aspirin treatment strategies recommended by the updated guidelines on the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases showed a net benefit for high-risk Chinese adults from developed areas. However, to balance effectiveness and safety, aspirin is suggested to be used for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases with consideration for blood pressure control, resulting in better intervention efficiency.
Adult ; Humans ; Aspirin/therapeutic use* ; Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology* ; Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage ; Myocardial Infarction/prevention & control* ; Primary Prevention/methods* ; Middle Aged ; Aged

The present study explored the biological connotation of traditional Chinese medicine(TCM) syndromes of rheumatoid arthritis(RA) from the "disease-syndrome-symptom" association network. RA patients with four TCM syndromes(dampness-heat obstruction, phlegm-stasis obstruction, Qi-blood deficiency, and liver and kidney deficiency), three for each type, were assigned as the RA TCM syndrome group, and three healthy volunteers as the normal control group. The differential gene sets of four syndromes were screened out through transcriptome expression profiling and bioinformatics mining. The relevant gene sets of syndrome-related clinical symptoms were collected from TCMIP v2.0(http://www.tcmip.cn/). The "disease-syndrome-symptom" association networks of four RA syndromes were established by using the intersection genes of syndrome-related differential genes and symptom-related genes, and the key network target genes of each syndrome were screened out and the corresponding biological functions were mined through topological feature calculation and enrichment analysis. The genes associated with clinical symptoms such as vasculitis, joint pain, and fever in the damp-heat obstruction syndrome ranked the top, and the key network target genes of this syndrome were most significantly enriched in the pathways related to material and energy metabolism and thermal reaction biological processes. The clinical symptom-related genes of the phlegm-stasis obstruction syndrome were most significantly enriched in the pathways related to "immunity-inflammation", nervous system regulation, and sensory response. The clinical symptoms such as hypoglycemia, hypotension, weight loss, palpitation, and arrhythmia in Qi-blood deficiency syndrome were predominant, and its key network target genes were most significantly enriched in the pathways related to the nervous system and "immunity-inflammation" response. The abnormal symptoms in the liver and kidney in the liver and kidney deficiency syndrome were commonly seen, and its key network target genes were most significantly enriched in the "immunity-inflammation" regulatory pathways, and liver and kidney development and metabolic response. In conclusion, the differences and connections of the biological basis between different TCM syndromes of RA are in line with the theoretical interpretation of TCM on the etiology and pathogenesis of RA. This study summarized the objective essence of syndromes to a certain extent from the "disease-syndrome-symptom" association network and is expected to provide a theoretical basis for the discovery of serum biomarkers of RA syndromes.
Arthritis, Rheumatoid/genetics* ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Kidney ; Medicine, Chinese Traditional ; Syndrome

Objective: To examine the associations between metabolic syndrome (MS) and the risks for impaired activities of daily living (ADL) in the middle-aged and elderly population in China and provide basis for improving healthy life expectancy. Methods: Prospective cohort study design was used in this study. Based the data of China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) from 2011 to 2018 and the baseline data in 2011, the follow up for ADL outcomes was conducted in 2013, 2015 and 2018 respectively, and the participants recruited in 2013 and 2015 were new baseline populations. The participants with impaired ADL in three baseline populations were excluded. Cox proportional hazard model was used to estimate the effect of different components and number of MS components on the risk for ADL impairment in the middle-aged and elderly population in China. Results: In 59 795 person-years of follow-up, a total of 1 011 cases of ADL impairments were recorded. The incidence density of ADL impairment was 16.91 per 1 000 person-year; The findings of Cox regression analysis showed that compared with the middle aged and elderly people without MS, the risk for ADL impairments was 1.29 times higher (95%CI: 1.12-1.50) for those with one component of MS, 1.32 times higher (95%CI:1.07-1.64) for those with hyperlipemia complicated with diabetes, 1.78 times higher (95%CI: 1.22-2.59) for those with obesity and one component of MS, 2.48 times higher (95%CI:1.59-3.85) for those with hypertension complicated with hyperlipemia, 3.51 times higher (95%CI:1.66-7.43) for those with hypertension complicated with diabetes, 1.80 times higher (95%CI: 1.40-2.32) for those with ≥3 MS, respectively. Compared with the middle-aged and elderly population without MS, the risk for impaired ADL increased by 30% (HR=1.30, 95%CI: 1.13-1.51), 54% (HR=1.54, 95%CI: 1.28-1.85) and 87% (HR=1.87, 95%CI:1.45-2.41), respectively, in the middle-aged and elderly with one, two, and more than three components of MS, with a significant dose-response relationship that ADL impaired risks increased as the number of MS components increased (P<0.001). Conclusions: Our findings suggested that MS is a risk factor for ADL impairment in middle-aged and elderly population in China. Prevention and early intervention of obesity, hypertension, hyperlipemia, diabetes and metabolic syndrome could help to reduce or delay the incidence of ADL impairment.
Activities of Daily Living ; Aged ; China/epidemiology* ; Humans ; Longitudinal Studies ; Metabolic Syndrome/epidemiology* ; Middle Aged ; Prospective Studies

Motor neurons are an important type of neurons that control movement. The transgenic fluorescent protein (FP)-labeled motor neurons of zebrafish line is disadvantageous for studying the morphogenesis of motor neurons. For example, the individual motor neuron is indistinguishable in this transgenic line due to the high density of the motor neurons and the interlaced synapses. In order to optimize the in vivo imaging methods for the analysis of motor neurons, the present study was aimed to establish a microtubule-fluorescent fusion protein mosaic system that can label motor neurons in zebrafish. Firstly, the promotor of mnx1, which was highly expressed in the spinal cord motor neurons, was subcloned into pDestTol2pA2 construct combined with the GFP-α-Tubulin fusion protein sequence by Gateway cloning technique. Then the recombinant constructs were co-injected with transposase mRNA into the 4-8 cell zebrafish embryos. Confocal imaging analysis was performed at 72 hours post fertilization (hpf). The results showed that the GFP fusion protein was expressed in three different types of motor neurons, and individual motor neurons were mosaically labeled. Further, the present study analyzed the correlation between the injection dose and the number and distribution of the mosaically labeled neurons. Fifteen nanograms of the recombinant constructs were suggested as an appropriate injection dose. Also, the defects of the motor neuron caused by the down-regulation of insm1a and kif15 were verified with this system. These results indicate that our novel microtubule-fluorescent fusion protein mosaic system can efficiently label motor neurons in zebrafish, which provides a more effective model for exploring the development and morphogenesis of motor neurons. It may also help to decipher the mechanisms underlying motor neuron disease and can be potentially utilized in drug screening.
Animals ; Animals, Genetically Modified ; Green Fluorescent Proteins/pharmacology* ; Microtubules/metabolism* ; Motor Neurons ; Zebrafish/genetics* ; Zebrafish Proteins/genetics*

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness of statin treatment strategies based on risk assessment for the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases by the Western guidelines in a community-based Chinese population from economically developed areas using data from the Chinese electronic health records research in Yinzhou (CHERRY) study. METHODS: A Markov model was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the following statin treatment strategies, including: (1) usual care without cardiovascular risk assessment(Strategy 0); (2) using the World Health Organization (WHO) non-laboratory-based risk charts with statin treatment for high-risk group (risk ≥ 20%) (Strategy 1); (3) using the WHO laboratory-based risk charts with statin treatment for high-risk group (risk ≥ 20%) (Strategy 2); and (4) using the Prediction for Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease Risk in China (China-PAR) model with statin treatment for high-risk group (risk ≥ 10%, Strategy 3). According to the guidelines, adults in the medium-risk group received lifestyle intervention, and adults in the high-risk group received life-style intervention and statin treatment under these strategies. The Markov model simulated different strategies for ten years (cycles) using parameters from the CHERRY study, published data, meta-analyses and systematic reviews for Chinese. The number of cardiovascular events or deaths, as well as the number need to treat (NNT) with statin per cardiovascular event or death prevented, were calculated to compare the effectiveness of different strategies. One-way sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty of incidence rate of cardiovascular diseases, and probabilistic sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty of hazard ratios of interventions were conducted. RESULTS: Totally 225 811 Chinese adults aged 40-79 years without cardiovascular diseases at baseline were enrolled. In contrast to the usual care without risk assessment-based statin treatment strategy, Strategy 1 using the WHO non-laboratory-based risk charts could prevent 3 482 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 2 110-4 661] cardiovascular events, Strategy 2 using the WHO laboratory-based risk charts could prevent 3 685 (95%UI: 2 255-4 912) events, and Strategy 3 using the China-PAR model could prevent 3 895 (95%UI: 2 396-5 181) events. NNTs with statin per cardiovascular event prevented were 22 (95%UI: 14-54), 21 (95%UI: 14-52), and 27 (95%UI: 17-67), respectively. Strategy 3 could prevent more cardiovascular events, while Strategies 1 and 2 required fewer numbers need to treat with statin per cardiovascular event prevented. The results were consistent in the sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION The statin treatment strategies based on risk assessment for the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases recommended by the Western guidelines could achieve substantive health benefits in adults from developed areas of China. Using the China-PAR model for cardiovascular risk assessment could prevent more cardiovascular diseases while using the WHO risk charts seems more efficient.
Adult ; Cardiovascular Diseases/prevention & control* ; China/epidemiology* ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; Humans ; Hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA Reductase Inhibitors/therapeutic use* ; Primary Prevention

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness of different screening strategies for type 2 diabetes to prevent cardiovascular disease in a community-based Chinese population from economically developed areas based on the Chinese electronic health records research in Yinzhou (CHERRY) study. METHODS: A Markov model was used to simulate different systematic diabetes screening strategies, including: (1) screening among Chinese adults aged 40-70 years recommended by the 2020 Chinese Guideline for the prevention and Treatment of Type 2 Diabetes (Strategy 1); (2) screening among Chinese adults aged 35 to 70 years recommended by the 2022 American Diabetes Association Standard of Medical Care in Diabetes (Strategy 2); and (3) screening among Chinese adults aged 35-70 years with overweight or obesity recommended by the 2021 United States Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement on Screening for Prediabetes and Type 2 Diabetes (Strategy 3). According to the guidelines, individuals who were screened positively (fasting plasma glucose ≥ 7.0 mmol/L) would be introduced to intensive glycemic targets management (glycated hemoglobin < 7.0%).The Markov model simulated different screening scenarios for ten years (cycles) with parameters mainly from the CHERRY study or published literature. Number of cardiovascular disease events or deaths could be prevented and number needed to screen (NNS) were calculated to compare the effectiveness of the different strategies. One-way sensitivity analysis on the sensitivity of screening methods and probabilistic sensitivity analysis on uncertainties of diabetes incidence, the sensitivity of screening methods, and intensive glycemic management effects were conducted. RESULTS: Totally 289 245 Chinese adults aged 35-70 years without cardiovascular diseases or diagnosed diabetes at baseline were enrolled. In terms of the number of cardiovascular disease events could be prevented, Strategy 1 for systematic diabetes screening among the adults aged 35-70 years was 222 (95%UI: 180-264), Strategy 2 for systematic diabetes screening among the adults aged 40-70 years was 227 (95%UI: 185-271), and Strategy 3 for systematic diabetes screening among the adults aged 35-70 years with obesity or overweight (body mass index ≥ 24 kg/m²) was 131 (95%UI: 98-164), compared with opportunistic screening. NNS per cardiovascular disease event for the strategies 1, 2 and 3 were 1 184 (95%UI: 994-1 456), 1 274 (95%UI: 1 067-1 564) and 814 (95%UI: 649-1 091), respectively. Compared with Strategy 1, NNS per cardiovascular disease event for Strategy 2 increased by 90 (95%UI: -197-381) with similar effectiveness of cardiovascular prevention; however, NNS per cardiovascular disease event for Strategy 3 was reduced by 460 (95%UI: 185-724) in contrast to the Strategy 2, suggesting that the Strategy 3 was more efficient. The results were consistent in multiple sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION Systematic screening for diabetes based on the latest guidelines in economically developed areas of China can reduce cardiovascular events and deaths. However, merely lowering the starting age of screening from 40 to 35 years seems ineffective for preventing cardiovascular disease, while screening strategy for Chinese adults aged 35-70 years with overweight or obesity is recommended to improve efficiency.
Adult ; Cardiovascular Diseases/prevention & control* ; China/epidemiology* ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/prevention & control* ; Humans ; Mass Screening/methods* ; Obesity ; Overweight ; United States

Objectives To validate the reliability of the Chinese version of the Consultation and Relational Empathy (CARE) in physician-standardized patient (SP) encounter. We also tried to examine the agreement between video-based ratings and in-room ratings, as well as the agreement between the faculty ratings and SP ratings. Methods The CARE was translated into Chinese. Forty-eight anesthesia residents were recruited to make preoperative interview in SP-counter. Performance of each resident was graded by in-room raters, video raters and SP raters. Consistency between different raters was examined. Results The Chinese-CARE measure demonstrated high scale reliability with a Cronbach's alpha value of 0.95 and high consistency in the in-room ratings in intraclass correlation (coefficient=0.888,

Standardized patients (SPs) are trained to portray a specific patient in a consistent, standardized fash-ion. SPs are widely used in many medical schools,and its efficacy for education and evaluation in the medical com-munity has been well established. Preoperative evaluation by anesthesiologist is a critical aspect of patient safety. But there are several defects in the current anesthesia education of preoperative evaluation and management. The residents are not provided with enough skills that are needed in the clinical practice and this sbortage may be com-pansated by SPs simulation. As a supplement of traditional teaching methods,SPs may improve the efficiency in the teaching of preoperative evaluation and enhance the competence of anesthesia residents.