1.Practicability of Suicide Reduction Target in Korean Suicide Prevention Policy: Insights From Time Series Analysis
Seunghyong RYU ; Seon-Hwa BAEK ; Min JHON ; Honey KIM ; Ju-Yeon LEE ; Jae-Min KIM ; Sung-Wan KIM
Journal of Korean Medical Science 2025;40(19):e59-
Background:
This study evaluated the practicability of the suicide rate reduction target set by the current national suicide prevention policy in Korea, the fifth Master Plan for Suicide Prevention (2023–2027). This policy aims to lower the suicide rate from 26/100,000 in 2021 to 18.2/100,000 by 2027.
Methods:
We utilized monthly suicide statistics data from 2011 onwards. Using Bayesian regression and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, we conducted interrupted time series analyses to estimate the effect of the previous policy, the National Action Plan for Suicide Prevention (2018–2022), on suicide rates. We assumed this as the additional suicide reduction expected from the current policy. We generated point predictions and simulations for suicide rates from 2023 to 2027 using Bayesian regression and ARIMA models.
Results:
The interrupted time series analyses did not reveal a significant reduction in suicides attributable to the previous policy. Point predictions from the two models indicated that the suicide rate would remain approximately 24/100,000 in 2027. Almost all of the simulations of the 2027 suicide rate did not meet the policy target of 18.2/100,000.
Conclusion
The findings suggest that the Korean government’s suicide rate reduction target for 2027 is likely unattainable based on current trends and the limited effectiveness of previous policies. The objectives of suicide prevention policies should be evidence-based, attainable, and accountable.
2.Practicability of Suicide Reduction Target in Korean Suicide Prevention Policy: Insights From Time Series Analysis
Seunghyong RYU ; Seon-Hwa BAEK ; Min JHON ; Honey KIM ; Ju-Yeon LEE ; Jae-Min KIM ; Sung-Wan KIM
Journal of Korean Medical Science 2025;40(19):e59-
Background:
This study evaluated the practicability of the suicide rate reduction target set by the current national suicide prevention policy in Korea, the fifth Master Plan for Suicide Prevention (2023–2027). This policy aims to lower the suicide rate from 26/100,000 in 2021 to 18.2/100,000 by 2027.
Methods:
We utilized monthly suicide statistics data from 2011 onwards. Using Bayesian regression and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, we conducted interrupted time series analyses to estimate the effect of the previous policy, the National Action Plan for Suicide Prevention (2018–2022), on suicide rates. We assumed this as the additional suicide reduction expected from the current policy. We generated point predictions and simulations for suicide rates from 2023 to 2027 using Bayesian regression and ARIMA models.
Results:
The interrupted time series analyses did not reveal a significant reduction in suicides attributable to the previous policy. Point predictions from the two models indicated that the suicide rate would remain approximately 24/100,000 in 2027. Almost all of the simulations of the 2027 suicide rate did not meet the policy target of 18.2/100,000.
Conclusion
The findings suggest that the Korean government’s suicide rate reduction target for 2027 is likely unattainable based on current trends and the limited effectiveness of previous policies. The objectives of suicide prevention policies should be evidence-based, attainable, and accountable.
3.Practicability of Suicide Reduction Target in Korean Suicide Prevention Policy: Insights From Time Series Analysis
Seunghyong RYU ; Seon-Hwa BAEK ; Min JHON ; Honey KIM ; Ju-Yeon LEE ; Jae-Min KIM ; Sung-Wan KIM
Journal of Korean Medical Science 2025;40(19):e59-
Background:
This study evaluated the practicability of the suicide rate reduction target set by the current national suicide prevention policy in Korea, the fifth Master Plan for Suicide Prevention (2023–2027). This policy aims to lower the suicide rate from 26/100,000 in 2021 to 18.2/100,000 by 2027.
Methods:
We utilized monthly suicide statistics data from 2011 onwards. Using Bayesian regression and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, we conducted interrupted time series analyses to estimate the effect of the previous policy, the National Action Plan for Suicide Prevention (2018–2022), on suicide rates. We assumed this as the additional suicide reduction expected from the current policy. We generated point predictions and simulations for suicide rates from 2023 to 2027 using Bayesian regression and ARIMA models.
Results:
The interrupted time series analyses did not reveal a significant reduction in suicides attributable to the previous policy. Point predictions from the two models indicated that the suicide rate would remain approximately 24/100,000 in 2027. Almost all of the simulations of the 2027 suicide rate did not meet the policy target of 18.2/100,000.
Conclusion
The findings suggest that the Korean government’s suicide rate reduction target for 2027 is likely unattainable based on current trends and the limited effectiveness of previous policies. The objectives of suicide prevention policies should be evidence-based, attainable, and accountable.
4.Practicability of Suicide Reduction Target in Korean Suicide Prevention Policy: Insights From Time Series Analysis
Seunghyong RYU ; Seon-Hwa BAEK ; Min JHON ; Honey KIM ; Ju-Yeon LEE ; Jae-Min KIM ; Sung-Wan KIM
Journal of Korean Medical Science 2025;40(19):e59-
Background:
This study evaluated the practicability of the suicide rate reduction target set by the current national suicide prevention policy in Korea, the fifth Master Plan for Suicide Prevention (2023–2027). This policy aims to lower the suicide rate from 26/100,000 in 2021 to 18.2/100,000 by 2027.
Methods:
We utilized monthly suicide statistics data from 2011 onwards. Using Bayesian regression and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, we conducted interrupted time series analyses to estimate the effect of the previous policy, the National Action Plan for Suicide Prevention (2018–2022), on suicide rates. We assumed this as the additional suicide reduction expected from the current policy. We generated point predictions and simulations for suicide rates from 2023 to 2027 using Bayesian regression and ARIMA models.
Results:
The interrupted time series analyses did not reveal a significant reduction in suicides attributable to the previous policy. Point predictions from the two models indicated that the suicide rate would remain approximately 24/100,000 in 2027. Almost all of the simulations of the 2027 suicide rate did not meet the policy target of 18.2/100,000.
Conclusion
The findings suggest that the Korean government’s suicide rate reduction target for 2027 is likely unattainable based on current trends and the limited effectiveness of previous policies. The objectives of suicide prevention policies should be evidence-based, attainable, and accountable.
5.Changes in Suicide Rate Trend After Implementation of Suicide Prevention Policy: An Interrupted Time Series Study on the Fifth Master Plan for Suicide Prevention
Seunghyong RYU ; Seon-Hwa BAEK ; Min JHON ; Honey KIM ; Ju-Yeon LEE ; Jae-Min KIM ; Sung-Wan KIM
Journal of Korean Neuropsychiatric Association 2024;63(4):237-245
Objectives:
This study examined the shifts in the suicide trends in Korea during the initial phase of the Fifth Master Plan for Suicide Prevention, using interrupted time series analyses.
Methods:
Interrupted time series analyses were performed using the monthly suicide data from January 2011 to April 2024. Quasi-Poisson regression models were applied to evaluate the changes in the level and slope of the suicide trend before and after policy implementation. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Prophet models were used to compare the actual and predicted counterfactual numbers of suicides during the policy period.
Results:
The quasi-Poisson regression model revealed a significant change in the trend of suicides among men, with an increasing slope during the policy period. For total suicides, the ARIMA and Prophet models suggested that the actual number of suicides was significantly higher than the counterfactual number during the policy period, with excess suicides averaging between 113 and 150 per month. The actual number of suicides among men was significantly higher than the counterfactual number during the policy period, with excess suicides averaging between 86 and 92 per month. No significant changes in the suicide trends among women were observed.
Conclusion
These findings suggest that the initial effects of the Fifth Master Plan for Suicide Prevention were inadequate to curb the rising suicide trends, particularly among men. This study underscores the need for timely policy responses to reverse the current increasing trend in suicides, with particular focus on the male population.
6.Changes in Suicide Rate Trend After Implementation of Suicide Prevention Policy: An Interrupted Time Series Study on the Fifth Master Plan for Suicide Prevention
Seunghyong RYU ; Seon-Hwa BAEK ; Min JHON ; Honey KIM ; Ju-Yeon LEE ; Jae-Min KIM ; Sung-Wan KIM
Journal of Korean Neuropsychiatric Association 2024;63(4):237-245
Objectives:
This study examined the shifts in the suicide trends in Korea during the initial phase of the Fifth Master Plan for Suicide Prevention, using interrupted time series analyses.
Methods:
Interrupted time series analyses were performed using the monthly suicide data from January 2011 to April 2024. Quasi-Poisson regression models were applied to evaluate the changes in the level and slope of the suicide trend before and after policy implementation. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Prophet models were used to compare the actual and predicted counterfactual numbers of suicides during the policy period.
Results:
The quasi-Poisson regression model revealed a significant change in the trend of suicides among men, with an increasing slope during the policy period. For total suicides, the ARIMA and Prophet models suggested that the actual number of suicides was significantly higher than the counterfactual number during the policy period, with excess suicides averaging between 113 and 150 per month. The actual number of suicides among men was significantly higher than the counterfactual number during the policy period, with excess suicides averaging between 86 and 92 per month. No significant changes in the suicide trends among women were observed.
Conclusion
These findings suggest that the initial effects of the Fifth Master Plan for Suicide Prevention were inadequate to curb the rising suicide trends, particularly among men. This study underscores the need for timely policy responses to reverse the current increasing trend in suicides, with particular focus on the male population.
7.Changes in Suicide Rate Trend After Implementation of Suicide Prevention Policy: An Interrupted Time Series Study on the Fifth Master Plan for Suicide Prevention
Seunghyong RYU ; Seon-Hwa BAEK ; Min JHON ; Honey KIM ; Ju-Yeon LEE ; Jae-Min KIM ; Sung-Wan KIM
Journal of Korean Neuropsychiatric Association 2024;63(4):237-245
Objectives:
This study examined the shifts in the suicide trends in Korea during the initial phase of the Fifth Master Plan for Suicide Prevention, using interrupted time series analyses.
Methods:
Interrupted time series analyses were performed using the monthly suicide data from January 2011 to April 2024. Quasi-Poisson regression models were applied to evaluate the changes in the level and slope of the suicide trend before and after policy implementation. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Prophet models were used to compare the actual and predicted counterfactual numbers of suicides during the policy period.
Results:
The quasi-Poisson regression model revealed a significant change in the trend of suicides among men, with an increasing slope during the policy period. For total suicides, the ARIMA and Prophet models suggested that the actual number of suicides was significantly higher than the counterfactual number during the policy period, with excess suicides averaging between 113 and 150 per month. The actual number of suicides among men was significantly higher than the counterfactual number during the policy period, with excess suicides averaging between 86 and 92 per month. No significant changes in the suicide trends among women were observed.
Conclusion
These findings suggest that the initial effects of the Fifth Master Plan for Suicide Prevention were inadequate to curb the rising suicide trends, particularly among men. This study underscores the need for timely policy responses to reverse the current increasing trend in suicides, with particular focus on the male population.
8.Changes in Suicide Rate Trend After Implementation of Suicide Prevention Policy: An Interrupted Time Series Study on the Fifth Master Plan for Suicide Prevention
Seunghyong RYU ; Seon-Hwa BAEK ; Min JHON ; Honey KIM ; Ju-Yeon LEE ; Jae-Min KIM ; Sung-Wan KIM
Journal of Korean Neuropsychiatric Association 2024;63(4):237-245
Objectives:
This study examined the shifts in the suicide trends in Korea during the initial phase of the Fifth Master Plan for Suicide Prevention, using interrupted time series analyses.
Methods:
Interrupted time series analyses were performed using the monthly suicide data from January 2011 to April 2024. Quasi-Poisson regression models were applied to evaluate the changes in the level and slope of the suicide trend before and after policy implementation. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Prophet models were used to compare the actual and predicted counterfactual numbers of suicides during the policy period.
Results:
The quasi-Poisson regression model revealed a significant change in the trend of suicides among men, with an increasing slope during the policy period. For total suicides, the ARIMA and Prophet models suggested that the actual number of suicides was significantly higher than the counterfactual number during the policy period, with excess suicides averaging between 113 and 150 per month. The actual number of suicides among men was significantly higher than the counterfactual number during the policy period, with excess suicides averaging between 86 and 92 per month. No significant changes in the suicide trends among women were observed.
Conclusion
These findings suggest that the initial effects of the Fifth Master Plan for Suicide Prevention were inadequate to curb the rising suicide trends, particularly among men. This study underscores the need for timely policy responses to reverse the current increasing trend in suicides, with particular focus on the male population.
9.The Korean Academy of Asthma Allergy and Clinical Immunology guidelines for sublingual immunotherapy
Gwanghui RYU ; Hye Mi JEE ; Hwa Young LEE ; Sung-Yoon KANG ; Kyunghoon KIM ; Ju Hee KIM ; Kyung Hee PARK ; So-Young PARK ; Myong Soon SUNG ; Youngsoo LEE ; Eun-Ae YANG ; Jin-Young MIN ; Eun Kyo HA ; Sang Min LEE ; Yong Won LEE ; Eun Hee CHUNG ; Sun Hee CHOI ; Young-Il KOH ; Seon Tae KIM ; Dong-Ho NAHM ; Jung Won PARK ; Jung Yeon SHIM ; Young Min AN ; Man Yong HAN ; Jeong-Hee CHOI ; Yoo Seob SHIN ; Doo Hee HAN ;
Allergy, Asthma & Respiratory Disease 2024;12(3):125-133
Allergen immunotherapy (AIT) has been used for over a century and has been demonstrated to be effective in treating patients with various allergic diseases. AIT allergens can be administered through various routes, including subcutaneous, sublingual, intralymphatic, oral, or epicutaneous routes. Sublingual immunotherapy (SLIT) has recently gained clinical interest, and it is considered an alternative treatment for allergic rhinitis (AR) and asthma. This review provides an overview of the current evidence-based studies that address the use of SLIT for treating AR, including (1) mechanisms of action, (2) appropriate patient selection for SLIT, (3) the current available SLIT products in Korea, and (4) updated information on its efficacy and safety. Finally, this guideline aims to provide the clinician with practical considerations for SLIT.
10.The Korean Academy of Asthma Allergy and Clinical Immunology guidelines for allergen immunotherapy
Hwa Young LEE ; Sung-Yoon KANG ; Kyunghoon KIM ; Ju Hee KIM ; Gwanghui RYU ; Jin-Young MIN ; Kyung Hee PARK ; So-Young PARK ; Myongsoon SUNG ; Youngsoo LEE ; Eun-Ae YANG ; Hye Mi JEE ; Eun Kyo HA ; Yoo Seob SHIN ; Sang Min LEE ; Eun Hee CHUNG ; Sun Hee CHOI ; Young-Il KOH ; Seon Tae KIM ; Dong-Ho NAHM ; Jung Won PARK ; Jung Yeon SHIM ; Young Min AN ; Doo Hee HAN ; Man Yong HAN ; Yong Won LEE ; Jeong-Hee CHOI ;
Allergy, Asthma & Respiratory Disease 2024;12(3):102-124
Allergen immunotherapy (AIT) is a causative treatment of allergic diseases in which allergen extracts are regularly administered in a gradually escalated doses, leading to immune tolerance and consequent alleviation of allergic diseases. The need for uniform practice guidelines in AIT is continuously growing as the number of potential candidates for AIT increases and new therapeutic approaches are tried. This updated version of the Korean Academy of Asthma Allergy and Clinical Immunology recommendations for AIT, published in 2010, proposes an expert opinion by specialists in allergy, pediatrics, and otorhinolaryngology. This guideline deals with the basic knowledge of AIT, including mechanisms, clinical efficacy, allergen standardization, important allergens in Korea, and special consideration in pediatrics. The article also covers the methodological aspects of AIT, including patient selection, allergen selection, schedule and doses, follow-up care, efficacy measurements, and management of adverse reactions. Although this guideline suggests the optimal dosing schedule, an individualized approach and modifications are recommended considering the situation for each patient and clinic.

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