1.Correlation between screen time, screen behavior type and anxiety, depression among children and adolescents in Jiangxi Province
CHEN Ting, LUO Yaling, HU Huaxiong, SONG Xiaoguang, CHEN Fuhui, FAN Yi, FANG Xiaoyan, ZHU Hui
Chinese Journal of School Health 2024;45(3):370-374
Objective:
To analyze the status and correlation between screen time, screen behavior type, and anxiety, depression among children and adolescents in Jiangxi Province, so as to provide a basis for effective intervention measures.
Methods:
Using the method of stratified random sampling, 8 851 primary and secondary school students in 11 districts of Jiangxi Province were investigated by questionnaire during September to December in 2020. Anxiety and depression status were investigated using the State Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI) and the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale for Children(CES-DC), respectively. Single factor analysis using χ 2-test, t-test,analysis of variance,and multivariate analysis using generalized linear models.
Results:
On school days and weekends, 4.7% and 20.4% of primary and secondary school students in Jiangxi Province had a total screen time of over 2 hours per day, respectively. The weighted scores of the total screen time (primary school students: 1.88± 0.68, junior middle school students: 1.96±0.71, high school students: 2.03±0.80) and time spent for playing video games (primary school students: 1.51±0.64, junior middle school students: 1.62±0.69, high school students: 1.68±0.75) daily showed an upward trend with the increase of educational stage ( F =31.48, 42.13), and with significantly higher in boys (1.97±0.74, 1.66± 0.72) than girls (1.93±0.72, 1.53±0.66)( t =2.48, 9.07)( P <0.05). The average scores of state anxiety and trait anxiety were (42.20±9.05) and (40.65±9.85), which showed an upward trend with the increase of educational stage ( F =168.12, 241.98 ), and were higher in girls than boys ( t =6.63, 8.48)( P <0.01). The average score of depression was (11.99±11.00), which was lower in elementary school students than middle school students and high school students ( F =136.42), with significantly higher in girls ( t =6.85)( P <0.01). On school days, with the increase of total screen time and time spent for playing video games daily, the risk of state anxiety, trait anxiety, and depression among primary and secondary school students significantly increased ( OR = 6.70- 818.98, P <0.01). On weekends, among primary and secondary school students, the total screen time of >1-2 hours daily reduced the risk of state anxiety ( OR =0.30). The risk of developing trait anxiety among students playing video games for more than 2 hours daily was 2.50 times higher than those without screen behavior ( OR =2.50). The risk of developing depression with a total screen time of more than 2 hours daily was 3.15 times higher those whithout screen behavior ( OR =3.15). The risk of developing depression among students playing video games >0-1, >1-2, >2 h daily was 2.14, 2.50, 4.90 times that of those without screen behaviors ( OR =2.14, 2.50, 4.90), and showed an upward trend with the increase of educational stage ( P <0.05).
Conclusions
Screen behaviors of primary and middle school students in Jiangxi Province are positively associated with the risk of anxiety and depression, but the total daily video time of >1-2 h on weekends was negatively associated with state anxiety. It is necessary to control the screen time as much as possible and reduce the risk of anxiety and depression.
2.TSHR Variant Screening and Phenotype Analysis in 367 Chinese Patients With Congenital Hypothyroidism
Hai-Yang ZHANG ; Feng-Yao WU ; Xue-Song LI ; Ping-Hui TU ; Cao-Xu ZHANG ; Rui-Meng YANG ; Ren-Jie CUI ; Chen-Yang WU ; Ya FANG ; Liu YANG ; Huai-Dong SONG ; Shuang-Xia ZHAO
Annals of Laboratory Medicine 2024;44(4):343-353
Background:
Genetic defects in the human thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) receptor (TSHR) gene can cause congenital hypothyroidism (CH). However, the biological functions and comprehensive genotype–phenotype relationships for most TSHR variants associated with CH remain unexplored. We aimed to identify TSHR variants in Chinese patients with CH, analyze the functions of the variants, and explore the relationships between TSHR genotypes and clinical phenotypes.
Methods:
In total, 367 patients with CH were recruited for TSHR variant screening using whole-exome sequencing. The effects of the variants were evaluated by in-silico programs such as SIFT and polyphen2. Furthermore, these variants were transfected into 293T cells to detect their Gs/cyclic AMP and Gq/11 signaling activity.
Results:
Among the 367 patients with CH, 17 TSHR variants, including three novel variants, were identified in 45 patients, and 18 patients carried biallelic TSHR variants. In vitro experiments showed that 10 variants were associated with Gs/cyclic AMP and Gq/11 signaling pathway impairment to varying degrees. Patients with TSHR biallelic variants had lower serum TSH levels and higher free triiodothyronine and thyroxine levels at diagnosis than those with DUOX2 biallelic variants.
Conclusions
We found a high frequency of TSHR variants in Chinese patients with CH (12.3%), and 4.9% of cases were caused by TSHR biallelic variants. Ten variants were identified as loss-of-function variants. The data suggest that the clinical phenotype of CH patients caused by TSHR biallelic variants is relatively mild. Our study expands the TSHR variant spectrum and provides further evidence for the elucidation of the genetic etiology of CH.
3.Status quo of Chinese educational research in community bases for general practice standardized residency training: a bibliometric study
Yan LI ; Wei SONG ; Yiming LI ; Na WANG ; Li LING ; Hui GONG ; Fang CHENG
Chinese Journal of General Practitioners 2024;23(3):267-272
Objective:To investigate the status quo of educational and teaching research in community bases for general practice standardized residency training in China.Methods:The studies related to education research in community bases for general practice standardized residency training were searched from Chinese Journal Full Text Database (CNKI), Wanfang Database and China Science and Technology Journal Database (VIP) from inception to November 30, 2023. The keywords of "standardized training of general practitioner residents" or "general practice standardized training" or "general practitioner standardized training" or "general practice training" and "community-based teaching " or "community training" "community base" or "community teaching" were used for search, and affiliations of authors should contain"community health service center". The literature was read and summarized using Endnote and Excel software.Results:A total of 171 articles were retrieved that met the criteria, and 130 articles were finally selected for analysis according to the quality review criteria of the literature. The authors of articles were distributed in 78 institutions of 17 provinces or regions, with 9 provinces or regions having a total of 123 articles (94.6%) with 2 published articles or more, of which the highest number was found in Beijing and Shanghai. Seventeen institutions published 2 or more articles with a total of 69 articles (53.1%), including 67 articles (51.5%) were co-authored by 2 units. The ranking top ten institutions in terms of the number of articles published were 5 community health service centers in Beijing, 4 in Shanghai (co-authored with Shanghai Zhongshan Hospital). There were 46 articles (35.4%) published in core journals and 55 articles (42.3%) with fund-supported projects. The studies presented teaching methods, teaching and training contents, teaching evaluation and effects, teacher training, teaching base construction and information technology application.Conclusion:The educational and teaching research in community bases for general practice standardized training in China has gradually received attention, the researches were mainly carried out by community medical institutions, but the overall quality of research needs to be further improved.
4.Investigation and analysis of the current status of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt treatment for portal hypertension in China
Haozhuo GUO ; Meng NIU ; Haibo SHAO ; Xinwei HAN ; Jianbo ZHAO ; Junhui SUN ; Zhuting FANG ; Bin XIONG ; Xiaoli ZHU ; Weixin REN ; Min YUAN ; Shiping YU ; Weifu LYU ; Xueqiang ZHANG ; Chunqing ZHANG ; Lei LI ; Xuefeng LUO ; Yusheng SONG ; Yilong MA ; Tong DANG ; Hua XIANG ; Yun JIN ; Hui XUE ; Guiyun JIN ; Xiao LI ; Jiarui LI ; Shi ZHOU ; Changlu YU ; Song HE ; Lei YU ; Hongmei ZU ; Jun MA ; Yanming LEI ; Ke XU ; Xiaolong QI
Chinese Journal of Radiology 2024;58(4):437-443
Objective:To investigate the current situation of the use of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) for portal hypertension, which should aid the development of TIPS in China.Methods:The China Portal Hypertension Alliance (CHESS) initiated this study that comprehensively investigated the basic situation of TIPS for portal hypertension in China through network research. The survey included the following: the number of surgical cases, main indications, the development of Early-TIPS, TIPS for portal vein cavernous transformation, collateral circulation embolization, intraoperative portal pressure gradient measurement, commonly used stent types, conventional anticoagulation and time, postoperative follow-up, obstacles, and the application of domestic instruments.Results:According to the survey, a total of 13 527 TIPS operations were carried out in 545 hospitals participating in the survey in 2021, and 94.1% of the hospital had the habit of routine follow-up after TIPS. Most hospitals believed that the main indications of TIPS were the control of acute bleeding (42.6%) and the prevention of rebleeding (40.7%). 48.1% of the teams carried out early or priority TIPS, 53.0% of the teams carried out TIPS for the cavernous transformation of the portal vein, and 81.0% chose routine embolization of collateral circulation during operation. Most of them used coils and biological glue as embolic materials, and 78.5% of the team routinely performed intraoperative portal pressure gradient measurements. In selecting TIPS stents, 57.1% of the hospitals woulel choose Viator-specific stents, 57.2% woulel choose conventional anticoagulation after TIPS, and the duration of anticoagulation was between 3-6 months (55.4%). The limitation of TIPS surgery was mainly due to cost (72.3%) and insufficient understanding of doctors in related departments (77.4%). Most teams accepted the domestic instruments used in TIPS (92.7%).Conclusions:This survey shows that TIPS treatment is an essential part of treating portal hypertension in China. The total number of TIPS cases is far from that of patients with portal hypertension. In the future, it is still necessary to popularize TIPS technology and further standardize surgical indications, routine operations, and instrument application.
5.Bioequivalence and pharmacokinetic study of olmesartan medoxomil and hydrochlorothiazide tablets in Chinese healthy subjects
Qi-Qi ZHANG ; Xian-Gen XU ; Jin-Fang LOU ; Bo-Fan SONG ; Chun-Guang YANG ; Guang-Hui ZHU ; Ting LI
The Chinese Journal of Clinical Pharmacology 2024;40(11):1623-1627
Objective To study the bioequivalence and safety of two olmesartan medoxomil and hydrochlorothiazide tablets in Chinese healthy subjects.Methods A total of 24 healthy subjects underwent fasting and postprandial tests in a single-center,randomized,open-label,single-dose,two-formulation,two-sequence,two-period,self-cross-over controlled design.The subjects were administered a single oral dose of the test formulation and reference formulation(each containingolmesartan medoxomil 20 mg and hydrochlorothiazide 12.5 mg)in a random cross-over fashion.The plasma concentrations of olmesartan and hydrochlorothiazide were determined by LC-MS/MS.The non-compartmental model analysis of olmesartan and hydrochlorothiazide was conducted using WinNonlin 7.0 software to calculate pharmacokinetic parameters and assess bioequivalence.Results In the fasting test,the pharmacokinetic parameters of olmesartan of test and reference were as follows:Cmax were(798.35±206.78)and(664.52±168.25)ng·mL-1,AUC0-t were(4 430.71±1 294.87)and(3 976.67±1 083.54)h·ng·mL-1,AUC0-∞ were(4 551.67±1 303.06)and(4 090.37±1 103.97)h·ng·mL-1.The pharmacokinetic parameters of hydrochlorothiazide of test and reference were as follows:Cmax were(92.39±35.96)and(96.15±38.76)ng·mL-1,AUC0_t were(548.69±217.11)and(564.41±208.68)h·ng·mL-1,AUC0-∞ were(603.04±228.59)and(619.26±223.27)h·ng·mL-1.In the fed test,the pharmacokinetic parameters of olmesartan of T and R were as follows:Cmax were(583.15±149.48)and(550.57±104.76)ng·mL-1,AUC0-t were(3 585.18±952.72)and(3 292.19±904.58)h·ng·mL-1,AUC0-∞ were(3 696.05±996.55)and(3 396.30±923.41)h·ng·mL-1.The pharmacokinetic parameters of hydrochlorothiazide of test and reference were as follows:Cmax were(70.30±17.88)and(74.70±21.65)ng·mL-1,AUC0-t were(476.60±119.39)and(492.91±144.81)h·ng·mL-1,AUC0-∞ were(523.37±132.67)and(535.81±151.92)h·ng·mL-1.In fasting and fed condition,the 90%confidence interval(90%CI)of Cmax,AUC0-t and AUC0-∞ of olmesartan and hydrochlorothiazide were in 80.00%-125.00%.Conclusion The two olmesartan medoxomil and hydrochlorothiazide tablets were bioequivalent under fasting and fed conditions,and good security.
6.Clinical characteristics and genetics functional analysis of two children with Spinal muscular atrophy
Wenchen HUANG ; Jinli BAI ; Hong WANG ; Yuwei JIN ; Xiaoyin PENG ; Xiushan GE ; Hui JIAO ; Yujin QU ; Fang SONG
Chinese Journal of Medical Genetics 2024;41(10):1187-1194
Objective:To explore the characteristics of SMN1 gene variants and carry out functional verification for two children with Spinal muscular atrophy (SMA). Methods:Two male children with complicated SMA diagnosed at the Children′s Hospital Affiliated to Capital Institute of Pediatrics respectively in July 2021 and April 2022 due to delayed or retrograde motor development were selected as the study subjects. Clinical data of the children were collected. Primary culture of skin fibroblasts was carried out, and peripheral blood samples were collected from both children and their parents. Multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification, combined long-range PCR and nested PCR, and Sanger sequencing were carried out to detect the copy number and variants of the SMN1 gene. Absolute quantitative real-time PCR, Western blotting and immunofluorescence were used to determine the transcriptional level of the SMN gene, expression of the SMN protein, and the number of functional SMN protein complexes (gems body), respectively. This study was approved by Medical Ethics Committee of the Children′s Hospital Affiliated to Capital Institute of Pediatrics (Ethics No. SHERLLM2021009). Results:Child 1, a 1-year-old boy, was clinically diagnosed with type 1 SMA. Child 2, a 2-and-a-half-year-old boy, was clinically diagnosed with type 3 SMA. Both children were found to harbor a paternally derived SMN1 deletion and a maternally derived SMN1 gene variant, namely c. 824G>T (p.Gly275Val) and c. 884A>T (p.*295Leu). Compared with the normal controls and carriers, the levels of full-length SMN1 transcripts in their peripheral blood and skin fibroblast cell lines were significantly decreased ( P<0.05), and the levels of SMN protein normalized to that of β-actin, and the numbers of gems bodies in the primary fibroblast cells were also significantly lower ( P<0.05). Based on the guidelines from the American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics, both variants were classified as likely pathogenic (PS3+ PM3+ PM5+ PP3; PS3+ PM3+ PM4+ PP3). Following the diagnosis, both children had received nusinersen treatment. Although their motor function was improved, child 1 still died at the age of 2 due to severe pulmonary infection. The walking ability of child 2 was significantly improved, and his prognosis appeared to be good. Conclusion:Two cases of clinically complicated SMA have been confirmed by genetic testing and experimental studies, which has provided a reference for their accurate treatment.
7.Analysis of the epidemic characteristics of reported pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Kashgar Prefecture, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from 2015 to 2022 and establishment of SARIMA prediction
Chong TENG ; Fang XIE ; Bing ZHAO ; Lijie ZHANG ; Hui LI ; Yuanyuan SONG ; Yang ZHENG ; Yang ZHOU ; Jing WANG ; Fei HUANG ; Mingting CHEN ; Xichao OU
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2024;58(11):1665-1672
Objective:To analyze the epidemic characteristics of reported tuberculosis incidence in Kashgar from 2015 to 2022, and use the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to predict the incidence, providing references for the local control of pulmonary tuberculosis.Methods:The reported incidence data of tuberculosis in the Kashgar area of Xinjiang from January 2015 to August 2023 were collected through the"Infectious Disease Monitoring System", a subsystem of the "Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System". The epidemic characteristics of reported incidence in this area from 2015 to 2022 were analyzed. Two SARIMA models of monthly reported incidence number and rate were established. The prediction performance of the two models was evaluated using the reported incidence data of tuberculosis from January 2023 to August 2023. The χ2 test was used to analyze population characteristics, and the Cochran-Armitage trend test was used to analyze annual incidence. Results:From 2015 to 2022, 133 972 cases of pulmonary tuberculosis were reported in Kashgar, with a yearly reported incidence rate of 383.64/100 000, showing a rising trend ( TCA=77.03, P<0.001) and then a declining trend ( TCA=176.16, P<0.001). The proportion of pathogenic positive pulmonary tuberculosis had increased yearly ( TCA=132.66, P<0.001). The reported onset time was concentrated from January to June each year, with a peak in April. Yengisar County, Zepu County and Yopurga County had the highest reported incidence rate in Kashgar. The sex ratio of men to women was 1.03∶1, and the reported incidence rate of men was higher than that of women ( χ2=27.04, P<0.001). The reported incidence rate of the group aged 60 years and older was the highest. The patient′s occupation was mainly farmers (84.99%). The average relative errors of the SARIMA ( 1, 1, 2) ( 0, 1, 1) 12 model and SARIMA ( 0, 1, 1)( 0, 1, 1) 12 model in predicting the reported monthly incidence number and rate were 11.67% and -9.81%, respectively. Both models had good prediction accuracy (MAPE=33.55%, MAPE=38.22%). Conclusion:The average reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in the Kashgar area shows a rising trend first and then a declining trend. The patients are mainly men and farmers, and attention should be paid to the prevention and control of tuberculosis among the elderly in winter and spring. The SARIMA ( 1, 1, 2) ( 0, 1, 1) 12 model and SARIMA ( 0, 1, 1)( 0, 1, 1) 12 model can fit the trend of reported tuberculosis incidence in the Kashgar area well and have good predictive performance.
8.Patterns of failure after postoperative adjuvant intensity-modulated radiotherapy for gastric cancer
Jinming SHI ; Yuan TANG ; Ning LI ; Shulian WANG ; Yongwen SONG ; Yueping LIU ; Shunan QI ; Ningning LU ; Hao JING ; Bo CHEN ; Hui FANG ; Ye-Xiong LI ; Wenyang LIU ; Jing JIN
Chinese Journal of Radiation Oncology 2024;33(5):419-425
Objective:To explore the patterns of failure after postoperative intensity-modulated radiotherapy for gastric cancer.Methods:Clinical data of patients diagnosed with gastric cancer or gastroesophageal junction carcinoma with pathological stages T 3-4N 0 or T xN 1-3 admitted to Cancer Hospital of Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences from May 2009 to December 2018 were retrospectively analyzed. All patients received postoperative radiotherapy. During the follow-up, tumor recurrence was confirmed by imaging or endoscopic or pathological data, etc. According to the location of tumor recurrence, recurrence patterns were divided into local, regional and distant recurrence. Differences in recurrence patterns among different groups were compared using t-test and Chi-square test. Patient survival was assessed through Kaplan-Meier method. Results:A total of 76 patients were enrolled, with a median age of 49 years old (27-67 years old), 34 cases (45%) were classified as T 3 stage, 40 cases (53%) of T 4 stage, and 75 cases (99%) of N 1-3 stage, respectively. Seventy-three patients (92%) were classified as stage Ⅲ, and 38 patients (50%) underwent D2 dissection. The median follow-up time was 32.8 months (7.1-138.5 months). The median time of recurrence was 17.6 months (2.9-113.6 months). The median survival time after recurrence was 8.19 months (0.6-91.9 months). There were 13 cases (17%) of local recurrence, 6 cases (8%) of regional recurrence, and 72 cases (95%) of distant metastasis in patients. Peritoneal metastasis (33 cases, 43%) and distant lymph node metastasis (12 cases, 16%) were the main patterns of distant recurrence. Conclusions:By intensity-modulated radiotherapy technology, adjuvant radiotherapy yields favorable local and regional control for gastric cancer. Distant metastasis is still the main pattern of recurrence.
9.Long-term efficacy and prognosis of intensity-modulated chemoradiotherapy for patients with anal squamous cell carcinoma
Jinming SHI ; Ning LI ; Shulian WANG ; Yongwen SONG ; Yueping LIU ; Hui FANG ; Ningning LU ; Shunan QI ; Bo CHEN ; Yirui ZHAI ; Wenwen ZHANG ; Hao JING ; Ye-Xiong LI ; Yuan TANG ; Jing JIN
Chinese Journal of Radiation Oncology 2024;33(9):818-824
Objective:To analyze clinical efficacy of intensity-modulated chemoradiotherapy for patients with anal squamous cell carcinoma and identify prognostic factors.Methods:Clinical data of patients with anal squamous cell carcinoma who received intensity-modulated chemoradiotherapy in the Cancer Hospital of Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences from January 1, 2010 to January 1, 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. Regular follow-up was carried out. The main indexes included disease-free survival (DFS), locoregional failure-free survival (LRFFS) and overall survival (OS), and adverse reactions were recorded. The survival curve was delineated by Kaplan-Meier method and the influencing factors of survival were analyzed by Cox regression models.Results:A total of 65 patients were enrolled with 19 (29%) males and 46 (71%) females. According to the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 7 th edition staging, there were 7 (11%), 28 (43%), 10 (15%), and 20 (31%) patients with stage I, II, IIIa, and IIIb, respectively. Before the chemoradiotherapy, 2 (3%) patients received chemotherapy and 12 (18%) patients received local resection. The median dose of radiotherapy was 54 Gy (range: 45-64 Gy) and the main concurrent chemotherapy regimen was capecitabine combined with cisplatin ( n=34, 52%). The completion rate of radiotherapy during concurrent chemoradiotherapy was 100%, and the chemotherapy completion rate was 88%. During the therapy, 5 patients (8%) were interrupted but completed concurrent chemoradiotherapy in full dose, and 8 patients (12%) reduced the dose of concurrent chemotherapy due to the toxicities. During the chemoradiotherapy, 15 cases (23%) experienced grade 3-4 leukopenia, and 17 cases (26%) experienced grade 3-4 radiation dermatitis. No treatment-related death occurred during the treatment. The median follow-up time was 50.4 months (range: 4.4-142.2 months), local recurrence occurred in 7 cases (11%), distant metastasis occurred in 3 cases (5%), and the 5-year DFS, LRFFS and OS rates were 78.8%, 86.5% and 85.1%, respectively. Cox univariate analysis indicated that T stage was significantly associated with DFS ( P=0.006), and tended to be associated with OS ( P=0.054). Conclusions:Intensity-modulated radiotherapy combined with concurrent chemotherapy is an effective treatment for anal squamous cell carcinoma, with tolerable acute toxicities. T stage is an influencing factor of DFS in anal squamous cell carcinoma patients.
10.Analysis of the epidemic characteristics of reported pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Kashgar Prefecture, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from 2015 to 2022 and establishment of SARIMA prediction
Chong TENG ; Fang XIE ; Bing ZHAO ; Lijie ZHANG ; Hui LI ; Yuanyuan SONG ; Yang ZHENG ; Yang ZHOU ; Jing WANG ; Fei HUANG ; Mingting CHEN ; Xichao OU
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2024;58(11):1665-1672
Objective:To analyze the epidemic characteristics of reported tuberculosis incidence in Kashgar from 2015 to 2022, and use the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to predict the incidence, providing references for the local control of pulmonary tuberculosis.Methods:The reported incidence data of tuberculosis in the Kashgar area of Xinjiang from January 2015 to August 2023 were collected through the"Infectious Disease Monitoring System", a subsystem of the "Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System". The epidemic characteristics of reported incidence in this area from 2015 to 2022 were analyzed. Two SARIMA models of monthly reported incidence number and rate were established. The prediction performance of the two models was evaluated using the reported incidence data of tuberculosis from January 2023 to August 2023. The χ2 test was used to analyze population characteristics, and the Cochran-Armitage trend test was used to analyze annual incidence. Results:From 2015 to 2022, 133 972 cases of pulmonary tuberculosis were reported in Kashgar, with a yearly reported incidence rate of 383.64/100 000, showing a rising trend ( TCA=77.03, P<0.001) and then a declining trend ( TCA=176.16, P<0.001). The proportion of pathogenic positive pulmonary tuberculosis had increased yearly ( TCA=132.66, P<0.001). The reported onset time was concentrated from January to June each year, with a peak in April. Yengisar County, Zepu County and Yopurga County had the highest reported incidence rate in Kashgar. The sex ratio of men to women was 1.03∶1, and the reported incidence rate of men was higher than that of women ( χ2=27.04, P<0.001). The reported incidence rate of the group aged 60 years and older was the highest. The patient′s occupation was mainly farmers (84.99%). The average relative errors of the SARIMA ( 1, 1, 2) ( 0, 1, 1) 12 model and SARIMA ( 0, 1, 1)( 0, 1, 1) 12 model in predicting the reported monthly incidence number and rate were 11.67% and -9.81%, respectively. Both models had good prediction accuracy (MAPE=33.55%, MAPE=38.22%). Conclusion:The average reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in the Kashgar area shows a rising trend first and then a declining trend. The patients are mainly men and farmers, and attention should be paid to the prevention and control of tuberculosis among the elderly in winter and spring. The SARIMA ( 1, 1, 2) ( 0, 1, 1) 12 model and SARIMA ( 0, 1, 1)( 0, 1, 1) 12 model can fit the trend of reported tuberculosis incidence in the Kashgar area well and have good predictive performance.


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