1.Research on the prediction of internet outpatient visits in public hospitals based on ARIMA and GM(1,1)model
Yanjie XU ; Liang XIN ; Junqing LIU ; Yan LI ; Shiyun LI ; Ruozhen WANG ; Honglei DONG
Modern Hospital 2024;24(1):14-19
Objective To understand the changing trend of Internet outpatient visits in public hospitals,and provide support for the development planning of Internet hospitals.Methods Using the data of Internet outpatient visits in a public hos-pital from January 2021 to June 2023,the ARIMA model and GM(1,1)model were constructed respectively.The mean absolute error(MAE)and root mean square error(RMSE)were used to evaluate the fitting effect,and the Internet outpatient visits from July to December 2023 were predicted based on the dominance model.Results ARIMA(1,2,1)model and GM(1,1)model were used to predict the number of return visits of Internet outpatient service.The average absolute errors were 369.86 and 978.84,and the root-mean-square errors were 479.49 and 1444.83,respectively.The ARIMA(0,1,0)model and GM(1,1)model were used to predict the number of Internet outpatient consultations.The average absolute errors were 297.23 and 369.62,and the root-mean-square errors were 413.61 and 496.30,respectively,indicating that the ARIMA model has a good prediction effect.The forecast results show that the predicted value of Internet outpatient visits in December 2023 is 14,831 cases,and the predicted value of consultation visits is 7461 cases.Conclusion The number of Internet outpatient visits in a public hospital will continue to rise from 2021 to 2023.Therefore,hospitals should fully realize the importance of Internet medical services,take ac-tive measures to continuously optimize the medical service model,and provide patients with high-quality,efficient and convenient Internet medical services.
2.Influence of maternal autoimmune diseases and anticoagulants on fetal fraction of maternal plasma cell-free DNA
Xuemei CHEN ; Honglei DUAN ; Wanjun WANG ; Ying ZHANG ; Xiangyu ZHU ; Xing WU ; Ying YANG ; Peixuan CAO ; Mengyao NI ; Zihan JIANG ; Biyun XU ; Jie LI
Chinese Journal of Perinatal Medicine 2024;27(6):450-456
Objective:To investigate the influence of maternal autoimmune diseases and anticoagulants, including low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) and aspirin, on the fetal fraction of maternal plasma cell-free DNA of non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT).Methods:A prospective cohort study was conducted on women with singleton pregnancies receiving NIPT in the Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital from March 2021 to July 2022. NIPT was carried out using a polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-free amplification platform. In this study, four types of maternal autoimmune diseases, which were antiphospholipid syndrome, undifferentiated connective tissue disease, Sj?gren's syndrome, and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), and two anticoagulants, LMWH and aspirin, were studied. Univariate and multivariate linear regression models were used to analyze the factors influencing fetal fraction of maternal plasma cell-free DNA.Results:A total of 4 102 singleton pregnant women were enrolled in the prospective cohort, and 3 948 were finally included after excluding the cases with unclear dosing time of LMWH or aspirin, other autoimmune diseases, conceiving through ovulation induction alone, and having true positive or failed NIPT result. There were 96 cases with antiphospholipid syndrome, 35 with undifferentiated connective tissue disease, 34 with Sj?gren's syndrome, and 18 with SLE. A total of 108 patients only received LMWH treatment, 121 only received aspirin treatment, and 113 received both LMWH and aspirin treatment. Univariate linear regression analysis showed that maternal body mass index at blood collection ( B=-0.423), conceived by assisted reproductive technology ( B=-0.803), male fetus ( B=-0.458), undifferentiated connective tissue disease ( B=1.774), and SLE ( B=3.467) had influence on the fetal fraction (all P<0.05). Multivariate linear regression analysis showed that maternal body mass index at blood collection ( B=-0.415), conceived by assisted reproductive technology ( B=-0.585), male fetus ( B=-0.322), SLE ( B=3.347) and undifferentiated connective tissue disease ( B=1.336) were factors influencing fetal fraction (all P<0.05). Conclusions:Maternal use of LMWH or aspirin does not affect fetal fraction when performing NIPT on a PCR-free amplification platform, but undifferentiated connective tissue disease and SLE are the influencing factors. Therefore, pregnant women should be informed before the NIPT that the fetal fraction of maternal plasma cell-free DNA may be affected by maternal autoimmune diseases.
3.The diagnostic value of artificial intelligence B-ultrasound image computer-aided diagnosis system in adult goiter
Zexu ZHANG ; Zongyu YUE ; Honglei XIE ; Yue SU ; Haowen PAN ; Jia LI ; Wenjing CHE ; Xin HOU ; Meng ZHAO ; Lanchun LIU ; Dandan LI ; Xian XU ; Weidong LI ; Fangang MENG ; Lijun FAN ; Lixiang LIU ; Ming LI ; Peng LIU
Chinese Journal of Endemiology 2024;43(11):922-927
Objective:To study the diagnostic value of artificial intelligence B-ultrasound image computer-aided diagnosis system (hereinafter referred to as intelligent ultrasound system) in adult goiter.Methods:In June 2022 and March 2023, two phases of thyroid disease survey were carried out in 4 cities in Anhui Province. One village was selected in each city, and 250 adults were selected as survey subjects in each village. Adult bilateral thyroid area was scanned by both intelligent ultrasound system and conventional ultrasound scanning equipment, and the effectiveness of intelligent ultrasound system in the diagnosis of goiter was analyzed based on the results of conventional ultrasound examination. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn, and Kappa test was used to analyze the consistency between intelligent ultrasound system and conventional ultrasound examination in the diagnosis of goiter. At the same time, Spearman correlation analysis and Bland-Altman method were used to evaluate the consistency of the two methods in measuring thyroid volume.Results:After screening and removing outliers and missing values, a total of 910 adults were included, including 253 males (27.80%) and 657 females (72.20%). The age was (45.92 ± 10.20) years old, ranging from 18 to 60 years old. The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of the intelligent ultrasound system for diagnosing adult goiter were 80.00%, 99.67%, and 99.56%, respectively. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.996, which was consistent with the results of conventional ultrasound examination for diagnosing goiter ( κ = 0.67, P < 0.001). After controlling for variables such as gender, thyroid function, and thyroid nodules, the intelligent ultrasound system showed good consistency with conventional ultrasound examination in the diagnosis of goiter in females, adults with thyroid dysfunction, and adults without thyroid nodules ( κ = 0.66, 0.80, 0.80, P < 0.001). The consistency in the diagnosis of goiter in adults with thyroid nodules was moderate ( κ = 0.56, P < 0.001). Spearman correlation analysis showed a highly positive correlation between the measurement results of adult thyroid volume by intelligent ultrasound system and conventional ultrasound examination ( r = 0.88, P < 0.001). The Bland-Altman method results showed that only 4.62% (42/910) of points in adults were outside the 95% consistency limit, indicating good consistency between intelligent ultrasound system and conventional ultrasound examination in measuring thyroid volume (< 5%). The proportion of points outside the 95% consistency limit in males, adults with thyroid dysfunction, and adults with thyroid nodules was 6.72% (17/253), 5.83% (12/206), and 6.45% (12/186), respectively. Conclusions:The intelligent ultrasound system has certain diagnostic value for adult goiter and has good consistency with conventional ultrasound examination for thyroid volume measurement. However, the accuracy of diagnosis for males and adults with thyroid nodules still needs to be improved.
4.The value of thrombocytopenia in the short-term prognosis of elderly patients with sepsis-related acute kidney injury
Lingchen KONG ; Jianhua XU ; Honglei LI ; Haifei LONG ; Shijun LU ; Haiyan LI ; Fangfang WEI ; Xuefeng JIA ; Wenhong PENG
Chinese Journal of Geriatrics 2023;42(9):1064-1069
Objective:To investigate the risk factors of thrombocytopenia in elderly patients with sepsis-associated acute kidney injury(SA-AKI), and to further evaluate whether the degree of thrombocytopenia is related to the increased risk of death on day 28.Methods:Elderly patients with SA-AKI admitted to ICU of our hospital from June 2017 to June 2020 were selected.The patients were divided into normal platelet group(56 cases)and thrombocytopenia group(72 cases)according to the platelet(PLT)count, and according to the degree of thrombocytopenia, they were further divided into three groups: PLT<20×10 9/L(group A, 22 cases), 20×10 9/L≤ PLT<50×10 9/L(group B, 27 cases), 50×10 9/L≤ PLT<100×10 9/L(group C, 23 cases).The general data, clinical baseline indicators and prognostic indicators of each group were compared to evaluate the risk factors of thrombocytopenia.At the same time, the impact of platelet count on the prognosis of elderly patients with SA-AKI was evaluated according to the length of stay in ICU, total length of stay and whether the patient died, and the correlation between the degree of thrombocytopenia and survival was analyzed. Results:A total of 128 elderly patients with SA-AKI were enrolled, including 73 males and 55 females.59.4 % of the patients were hospitalized in the department of internal medicine.The APACHEⅡ score was(15.5 ± 3.3)points, invasive mechanical ventilation accounted for 78.9%, positive inotropic therapy accounted for 12.8%, and 56 patients had normal platelet count.Thrombocytopenia occurred in 72 patients, including 22 patients with PLT<20×10 9/L, 27 patients with platelet count in 20-50×10 9/L, and 23 patients with platelet count in 50-100×10 9/L.There were significant differences in bloodstream infection, Gram-negative bacteria, APACHEⅡ score and procalcitonin(PCT)among the four groups( P<0.05).Further multivariate logistic regression showed that PCT was an independent risk factor for thrombocytopenia in elderly patients with SA-AKI( OR=1.05, 95% CI: 1.00-1.10, P=0.042).Compared with the normal platelet group, the 28-day mortality rate of the thrombocytopenia group was significantly higher than that of the normal platelet group, while the length of stay in ICU and the total length of stay were prolonged( P<0.05).Kaplan-Meier survival curve showed that the 28-day cumulative survival rate of thrombocytopenia group was lower than that of normal platelet group, and the risk of death increased with the degree of thrombocytopenia( χ2=31.479, P<0.001).Univariate Cox regression analysis showed that thrombocytopenia, bloodstream infection, APACHEⅡ score and PCT were risk factors for 28-day death in elderly patients with SA-AKI.Multivariate Cox analysis showed that bloodstream infection and APACHEⅡ score were independent risk factors for 28-day death.After adjusting these confounding factors, thrombocytopenia was an independent risk factor for death, and the degree of thrombocytopenia was related to the increased risk of death. Conclusions:Thrombocytopenia is common in elderly patients with SA-AKI, and elevated PCT levels increase the risk of thrombocytopenia.The degree of thrombocytopenia is an independent risk factor for 28-day mortality in such patients.
5.Epidemiological investigation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in maintenance hemodialysis patients in Jiangsu province during the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2
Guang YANG ; Yifei GE ; Yaoyu HUANG ; Jizhuang LOU ; Chunming JIANG ; Guoyuan LU ; Fengling CHEN ; Jiansong SHEN ; Xiaolan CHEN ; Houyong DAI ; Changhua LIU ; Min YANG ; Xiurong LI ; Zhuxing SUN ; Liang WANG ; Bin LIU ; Donghui ZHENG ; Yong XU ; Maojie CHEN ; Ling WANG ; Yilai ZHANG ; Xu ZHANG ; Jianqiang HE ; Liyuan ZHANG ; Huiting WAN ; Honglei GUO ; Jiahui YANG ; Wei XU ; Changying XING ; Huijuan MAO
Chinese Journal of Nephrology 2023;39(12):895-902
Objective:To investigate the epidemiology of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in patients with maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) in Jiangsu province during SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in China from December 7, 2022 to January 27, 2023, and to analyze the influencing factors of all-cause death.Methods:It was a multi-center cross-sectional investigation. Structured questionnaire was used to collect patient information by medical staff of each hemodialysis center (room) as investigators. Part of the demography data and laboratory examination data came from the Jiangsu Province Hemodialysis Data Information System. MHD patients from hemodialysis centers (rooms) at all levels of medical institutions and independent hemodialysis institutions in Jiangsu province during the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 infection were included, and the clinical characteristics and all-cause mortality of confirmed and suspected cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection were analyzed.Results:Questionnaire surveys and data analysis on 57 278 patients in 407 hemodialysis centers (rooms) were completed, accounting for 90.41% of the total number of MHD patients (63 357 cases) in Jiangsu province during the same period. There were 24 038 cases (41.97%) of SARS-CoV-2 infection and 14 805 cases (25.85%) of suspected infection, which were widely distributed in all dialysis centers in Jiangsu province. After clinical classification of 38 843 confirmed and suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection cases, 3 662 cases were severe and critical cases, accounting for 9.43% of the infected and suspected cases. Among the patients who had completed the questionnaires, there were 1 812 all-cause deaths, with an all-cause mortality rate of 3.16%. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that elderly (taking ≤50 years as a reference, 51-59 years: OR=1.583, 95% CI 1.279-1.933, P=0.001; 60-69 years: OR=3.972, 95% CI 3.271-4.858, P<0.001; 70-79 years: OR=7.236, 95% CI 5.917-8.698, P<0.001; ≥80 years: OR=11.738, 95% CI 9.459-14.663, P<0.001), male ( OR=1.371, 95% CI 1.229-1.529, P<0.001), and co-infection with hepatitis B virus (HBV) (positive serum HBV surface antigen, OR=0.629, 95% CI 0.484-0.817, P<0.001) were independent influencing factors for all cause mortality. Receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the area under the curve for male, age and current HBV infection prediction of all-cause death was 0.529 ( P<0.001), 0.724 ( P<0.001) and 0.514 ( P=0.042), respectively, and the cut-off value for age prediction of all-cause death was 65.5 years old. Compared with patients without HBV infection, MHD patients with HBV infection significantly reduced the proportion of severe and critically ill patients, all-cause hospitalizations and all cause deaths when infected with SARS-CoV-2 (4.99% vs. 6.41%, χ2=6.136, P=0.013; 8.90% vs. 11.44%, χ2=11.662, P<0.001; 2.01% vs. 3.37%, χ2=10.713, P=0.001, respectively). Conclusion:The MHD patients in Jiangsu province are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2. Elderly age and male gender are independent risk factors for death in MHD patients during the epidemic, while the HBV infection may be a protective factor for death of MHD patients infected with SARS-CoV-2.
6.Visualization analysis of the application of Kirkpatrick model in nursing education field
Chenqi YUE ; Minghui LU ; Honglei LYU ; Qianwen CHAI ; Weiwei XU ; Li WEI
Chinese Journal of Modern Nursing 2023;29(19):2569-2575
Objective:To analyze the research hotspots and trends of the application of Kirkpatrick model in nursing education through bibliometrics analysis, so as to provides ideas for follow-up researchers to carry out research in related fields.Methods:Relevant literatures in CNKI, Wanfang, VIP and PubMed were retrieved from the establishment of databases until August 27, 2022. CiteSpace software was used to draw the literature topic clustering map, BICOMB was used to generate the co-occurrence matrix of bibliographic data, and gCLUTO software was used to make the visual hill map and analyze the literature hotspots.Results:A total of 230 literatures were included, including 145 in Chinese and 85 in English. Since 2016, the number of published papers had been on the rise. The papers were published in 134 journals at home and abroad, and the coauthor rate was 95.65% (220/230), and the funded papers accounted for 25.65% (59/230). The hot topic of Chinese literature research was the construction of training evaluation index system and training effectiveness evaluation. The research objects mainly included specialized nurses and in-service nurses.The research hotspot of English literature was nursing education and training. The research objects were specialized nurses and undergraduate students.Conclusions:The application of the Kirkpatrick model in the field of specialized nurse training is still in its infancy, and it needs to be extended to more specialist fields in the future. In addition, researchers should further explore the construction and application of a training evaluation index system based on the Kirkpatrick model in the future, and promote the horizontal development of training
7.Study on the remineralization of demineralized enamel surfaces with glycine-guided carboxymethyl chitosan/amorphous calcium phosphate
GUO Honglei ; ZHANG Kai ; ZHANG Xu
Journal of Prevention and Treatment for Stomatological Diseases 2022;30(2):83-88
Objective:
To explore effect on the remineralization of demineralized enamel surfaces with glycine-guided carboxymethyl chitosan (CMC)/amorphous calcium phosphate (ACP).
Methods:
Remineralized solultion at different stages were prepared: ①reactive CMC/ACP (CMC/ACP nanoparticles treated with NaClO), ②reactive CMC/ACP+glycine; transmission electron microscopy was used to detect the morphology of the remineralized solution particles. Twenty teeth were randomly divided into two groups: group A and group B. Reactive CMC/ACP was applied to the enamel surface of group A and group B was treated with reactive CMC/ACP remineralization solution containing glycine. Scanning electron microscopy was used to detect the enamel surface morphology before and after remineralization, and nanoindentation was used to detect the mechanical strength (including nanoindentation depth, hardness and elastic modulus) of the enamel surface.
Results:
Under a transmission electron microscope, the particles in the reactive CMC/ACP remineralization solution were smooth, and the increase in particle size was approximately 100-300 nm. After the addition of glycine, the particles in the reactive CMC/ACP remineralization solution particles showed a linear ordered arrangement, and microcrystals were formed in the solution 15 min later, with a crystal length of approximately 5-15 μm. Remineralization in group A was granular and heterogeneous. In group B, the crystal morphology of the demineralized enamel was homogeneous and ordered, similar to that of natural enamel. The nanoindentation depth of group B after remineralization was smaller than that of group A, and it was closest to that of natural enamel, there was no significant difference between group B and natural enamel in terms of the hardness and elastic modulus of the enamel surface after remineralization.
Conclusion
CMC/ACP nanoparticles treated with NaClO can rapidly and specifically form directional and ordered remineralization on the enamel surface of a model of glycine-guided rapid remineralization of enamel caries. The surface structure of remineralized enamel is similar to that of natural enamel in terms of nanoindentation depth, hardness and elastic modulus.
8.The predictive value of 18F-FDG PET-CT in the conversion from thoracoscopic lobectomy to thoracotomy for non-small cell lung cancer
Rui XU ; Liping FU ; Honglei LI ; Lijie YIN ; Meng WANG ; Jie LIU ; Guangliang QIANG
Cancer Research and Clinic 2022;34(5):352-357
Objective:To investigate the predictive value of 18F-FDG PET-CT in the conversion from thoracoscopic lobectomy to thoracotomy for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods:The clinical data, CT and PET-CT images of 193 patients with primary NSCLC undergoing thoracoscopic surgery from January 2014 to June 2021 at China-Japan Friendship Hospital were retrospectively analyzed. All patients were divided into 45 cases who were converted to thoracotomy (the conversional group) and 148 cases who were not converted to thoracotomy (the non-conversional group). Univariate analysis was performed on clinicopathological characteristics and image parameters. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the factors affecting the conversion to thoracotomy. Taking the final conversion to thoracotomy or not as the gold standard, the predictive effect of variables in the conversion to thoracotomy was analyzed through the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Delong test was used to compare the area under the curve (AUC) predicted by all variables.Results:In the conversional group, the proportion of peribronchial lymph node (PLN), peribronchial cuffs of soft (PCS), pleural calcification, pulmonary nodule calcification, PLN or PCS calcification or increased density on chest CT was higher than that in the non-conversional group (all P<0.05); and the maximum standardized uptake value (SUV max) of PET in the conversional group was higher compared with that in the non-conversional group ( P<0.001). Univariate logistic regression analysis suggested age ( OR = 4.663,95% CI 2.191- 9.923, P < 0.001) and PLN or PCS density of chest CT scan ( OR = 2.824, 95% CI 1.791-7.303, P < 0.001) were independent influencing factors of the conversion from thoracoscopic lobectomy to thoracotomy. ROC analysis showed that the effect of the conversion to thoracotomy predicted by the combination of 18F-FDG PET and chest CT [AUC = 0.891 (95% CI 0.831-0.951); the optimal cut-off value of SUV max and CT was 3.45, 70 Hu: the sensitivity was 84.4%, the specificity was 83.8%] was better than that by chest CT alone [AUC = 0.678 (95% CI 0.591-0.766); the optimal cut-off value of CT was 70 Hu: the sensitivity was 62.2%, the specificity was 62.8%; P < 0.001] and by age [AUC = 0.625 (95% CI 0.532-0.719); the optimal cut-off value was 65.5 years: the sensitivity was 75.6%, the specificity was 60.1%; P < 0.001]. Conclusions:PLN or PCS density on chest scan and age are valuable in predicting the conversion from thoracoscopic lobectomy to thoracotomy for NSCLC patients. The combination of PET and CT has an additional role in predicting the conversion to thoracotomy during thoracoscopic lobectomy.
9.Investigation of medication adherence for superficial mycoses among students in a college based on Morisky Medication Adherence Scale
Renjie TANG ; Zhiyong LI ; Ruina WANG ; Jiacun LIU ; Zhi WANG ; Haiyan LIU ; Honglei LI ; Xu WANG ; Dazhi ZHANG ; Lan YAN
Journal of Pharmaceutical Practice 2022;40(4):335-338
Objective To investigate the medication adherence of military academy students with superficial mycoses. Methods A 8-item Morisky medication adherence scale (MMAS) was modified into 7-item scale to evaluate the compliance of antifungal drugs in the sick students. The reliability and validity of the scale were analyzed. Results A total of 243 questionnaires were collected, of which 242 were valid questionnaires. 90.08% of the students took topical medication and 8.68% were treated both with topical and systematic combination. High, medium and low medication adherence rates as assessed by the modified MMAS were 9.09%, 23.97% and 66.94%, respectively. The reliability analysis showed that the internal consistency coefficient (Cronbach’s α ) was 0.781,and the adjusted Cronbach’s α was 0.790, indicating the high reliability of the scale. The KMO value was 0.798, and the Bartlett’s spherical test value was 440.866, P=0.000. One factor was extracted by exploratory factor analysis. The factor loadings of the items were all above 0.5. Therefore, the high convergent validity was good. Conclusion The modified MMAS has good reliability and validity and is applicable for the evaluation of medication compliance for superficial mycoses. In this study, the military students have a low level of medication adherence for superficial mycoses. Effective measures should be taken to help students strengthen their daily medication management and improve compliance.
10.Advances in endoscopic therapy for benign distal biliary strictures
Jinjie XU ; Honglei GUO ; Lianghao HU
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2022;38(8):1941-1944
Benign distal biliary strictures (BDBS) are fibrous tissue proliferation and biliary stricture caused by long-term stimulation of the affected bile ducts due to non-neoplastic factors such as iatrogenic injury, chronic inflammation, and bile duct stones, which further leads to recurrent cholangitis, obstructive jaundice, and liver impairment. Relieving distal biliary obstruction and maintaining bile duct patency for a long time are the core of the treatment of BDBS. With the continuous innovation of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography techniques, new techniques such as endoscopic stenosis dilatation, stent implantation, and magnetic compression anastomosis are gradually becoming effective treatment methods for BDBS. This article elaborates on the advances in endoscopic therapy for BDBS, so as to provide a reference for clinical research.


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