1.Progress in the study of anti-inflammatory active components with anti-inflammatory effects and mechanisms in Caragana Fabr.
Yu-mei MA ; Ju-yuan LUO ; Tao CHEN ; Hong-mei LI ; Cheng SHEN ; Shuo WANG ; Zhi-bo SONG ; Yu-lin LI
Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica 2025;60(1):58-71
The plants of the genus
2.Analysis of colorectal cancer screening results among residents in Baoshan District
SHEN Fangli ; MAO Jianying ; MENG Yang ; ZHU Liming ; BO Hong ; TANG Dezhen ; LIU Shiyou
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2024;36(10):869-872,877
Objective:
To analyze the results of colorectal cancer screening among residents in Baoshan District, Shanghai Municipality from 2013 to 2021, so as to provide the basis for promoting colorectal cancer screening and prevention.
Methods:
Permanent residents aged 50 to 74 years in Baoshan District from 2013 to 2021 were selected as the screening population. The initial screening was conducted using a risk assessment form and fecal occult blood test. Positive results on either the risk assessment form or fecal occult blood test were considered positive for the initial screening. Participants with positive initial screening results were invited to undergo colonoscopy. The positive rate of the initial screening, colonoscopy compliance rate, and colonoscopy results were analyzed.
Results:
A total of 264 907 individuals underwent the initial colorectal cancer screening in Baoshan District from 2013 to 2021, with 65 333 individuals (24.66%) testing positive. Among them, the positive rate of the risk assessment form was 12.16%, and the positive rate of fecal occult blood test was 14.64%. A total of 14 473 individuals completed colonoscopy, with a compliance rate of 22.15%. A total of 1 284 precancerous lesions were detected, with a detection rate of 8.87%, and 386 cases of colorectal cancer were identified, with a detection rate of 2.67%. The positive rate of the initial screening, colonoscopy compliance rate, precancerous lesion detection rate, and colorectal cancer detection rate were higher in males than in females (25.55% vs. 24.06%, 23.12% vs. 21.45%, 11.60% vs. 6.74%, 3.62% vs. 1.93%, all P<0.05). With increasing age, the positive rate of the initial screening increased, the colonoscopy compliance rate decreased, the precancerous lesion detection rate and colorectal cancer detection rate increased (all P<0.05). From 2013 to 2021, the positive rate of the initial screening among residents showed a downward trend, while the colonoscopy compliance rate showed an upward trend (both P<0.05).
Conclusions
The detection rate of precancerous lesions in colorectal cancer was 8.87%, and the detection rate of colorectal cancer was 2.67% in Baoshan District from 2013 to 2021. Male and older individuals were the key populations for screening, and the colonoscopy compliance among residents needs to be improved.
3.Disease characteristics and costs of pediatric Mycoplasma Pneumoniae pneumonia hospitalization:a retrospective study at municipal hospitals from 2019 to 2023 in Shanghai
Ying-Wen WANG ; Feng WANG ; Li-Bo WANG ; Ai-Zhen LU ; Yi WANG ; Yong-Hao GUI ; Quan LU ; Yong YIN ; Jian-Hua ZHANG ; Ying-Zi YE ; Hong XU ; Bing SHEN ; Dan-Ping GU ; Xiao-Yan DONG ; Jia-Yu WANG ; Wen HE ; Xiao-Bo ZHANG
Fudan University Journal of Medical Sciences 2024;51(4):515-521
Objective To investigate disease characteristics and hospitalization costs of children with Mycoplasma Pneumoniae pneumonia(MPP)admitted to Shanghai municipal medical hospitals from 2019 to 2023.Methods Depending on the Shanghai Municipal Hospital Pediatric Alliance,we retrospectively investigated community acquired MPP pediatric patients hospitalized in 22 municipal hospitals with pediatric qualifications(including 4 children's hospitals)in Shanghai from Jan 2019 to Dec 2023.We collected the patients'diagnosis codes,gender,age,length of hospital stay,hospitalization costs,and whether they progressed to severe Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia(SMPP).Results From 2019 to 2023,a total of 29 045 hospitalized children with MPP were treated,with 6 035 cases(20.8%)identified as SMPP in the 22 hospitals.Trend analysis revealed a rising trend with years in the proportion of SMPP patients(χ2trend=365.498,P<0.001).Among the 4 children's hospitals,there were 18 710 cases with MPP,including 4 078 cases(21.8%)of SMPP.The proportion of SMPP patients also showed an increasing trend with years(χ2trend=14.548,P<0.001),and the proportion in 2023(23.0%)was higher than that in previous years with statistical significance.There were statistical differences in the seasonal distribution of MPP cases between different years,with higher proportions in summer and autumn overall.The age distribution of hospitalized MPP children varied among different years,with school-age children accounting for the majority(56.8%)in 2023.There was no difference in the distribution of severe cases between different genders,but there were differences in the proportion of severe cases among different age groups in different years,with a gradual increase in severe cases among children aged 1 to 3 years(χ2trend=191.567,P<0.001).The average length of hospital stay for MPP during the epidemic was higher than that during non-epidemic periods,and there were statistically significant differences in the average length of hospital stay between different years(P<0.001).The individual hospitalization costs during the epidemic were higher than in other years,and there were statistically significant differences in individual hospitalization costs between different years(P<0.001).The total hospitalization costs were still higher in 2019 and 2023.The individual hospitalization costs for SMPP were higher than for non-SMPP cases.Conclusion MPP outbreaks occurred in Shanghai in 2019 and 2023,with the higher proportions in summer and autumn overall.Compared to previous years,the number of hospitalized MPP children in Shanghai was higher in 2023,with a higher proportion of SMPP cases,especially among children under 3 years old.The individual per capita hospitalization expenses for SMPP cases were higher than for non-SMPP cases.
4.CHEN Bo-Lai's Experience in Treating Low Back Pain of Kidney Deficiency and Phlegm Obstruction Type Based on the Theory of Kidney Being the Root of Phlegm
Wen-Xi SUN ; Qi PENG ; Yu-Fu HUANG ; Jiang-Nan YE ; Hong-Mei LI ; Yong-Peng LIN ; Hong-Shen WANG ; Bo-Lai CHEN
Journal of Guangzhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2024;41(6):1616-1620
The kidney governs water and is the congenital foundation.The kidney plays an important role in the transportation and distribution of body fluid,has the interior-exterior relationship with the waterffu-organ bladder,and has the meridian connection with the stomach,the reservoir of water and food,through the thoroughfare vessel.Therefore,the kidney plays a key role in the formation of phlegm.Professor CHEN Bo-Lai believes that low back pain of kidney deficiency and phlegm obstruction type is characterized by deficiency in the origin and excess in the superficiality.Excess in the superficiality is manifested as phlegm obstruction,and deficiency in the origin is manifested as kidney deficiency.Clinically,the patients with low back pain of kidney deficiency and phlegm obstruction type mainly have the manifestations of lumbosacral dull pain and fixed pain,stiffness in the waist,limb numbness or hemiplegia,accompanied by soreness and weakness of waist and knees,and preference for pressing and kneading.The treatment of low back pain of kidney deficiency and phlegm obstruction type can be based on theory of kidney being the root of phlegm,follows the therapy of tonifying kidney and eliminating phlegm,and can be performed by the modified use of basic prescription of Litan Decoction(mainly composed of Euryales Semen,Pinelliae Rhizoma,Sesami Semen Nigrum,Platycladi Semen,Paeoniae Radix Alba,Citri Reticulatae Pericarpium and Poria)together with the assistance of herbs for strengthening spleen and dispersing lung based on the differentiation of the complicated symptoms.The thoughts of Professor CHEN Bo-Lai for the differentiation and treatment of low back pain of kidney deficiency and phlegm obstruction type can be used as a reference for the treatment of low back pain with Chinese medicine.
5.A multicenter study of neonatal stroke in Shenzhen,China
Li-Xiu SHI ; Jin-Xing FENG ; Yan-Fang WEI ; Xin-Ru LU ; Yu-Xi ZHANG ; Lin-Ying YANG ; Sheng-Nan HE ; Pei-Juan CHEN ; Jing HAN ; Cheng CHEN ; Hui-Ying TU ; Zhang-Bin YU ; Jin-Jie HUANG ; Shu-Juan ZENG ; Wan-Ling CHEN ; Ying LIU ; Yan-Ping GUO ; Jiao-Yu MAO ; Xiao-Dong LI ; Qian-Shen ZHANG ; Zhi-Li XIE ; Mei-Ying HUANG ; Kun-Shan YAN ; Er-Ya YING ; Jun CHEN ; Yan-Rong WANG ; Ya-Ping LIU ; Bo SONG ; Hua-Yan LIU ; Xiao-Dong XIAO ; Hong TANG ; Yu-Na WANG ; Yin-Sha CAI ; Qi LONG ; Han-Qiang XU ; Hui-Zhan WANG ; Qian SUN ; Fang HAN ; Rui-Biao ZHANG ; Chuan-Zhong YANG ; Lei DOU ; Hui-Ju SHI ; Rui WANG ; Ping JIANG ; Shenzhen Neonatal Data Network
Chinese Journal of Contemporary Pediatrics 2024;26(5):450-455
Objective To investigate the incidence rate,clinical characteristics,and prognosis of neonatal stroke in Shenzhen,China.Methods Led by Shenzhen Children's Hospital,the Shenzhen Neonatal Data Collaboration Network organized 21 institutions to collect 36 cases of neonatal stroke from January 2020 to December 2022.The incidence,clinical characteristics,treatment,and prognosis of neonatal stroke in Shenzhen were analyzed.Results The incidence rate of neonatal stroke in 21 hospitals from 2020 to 2022 was 1/15 137,1/6 060,and 1/7 704,respectively.Ischemic stroke accounted for 75%(27/36);boys accounted for 64%(23/36).Among the 36 neonates,31(86%)had disease onset within 3 days after birth,and 19(53%)had convulsion as the initial presentation.Cerebral MRI showed that 22 neonates(61%)had left cerebral infarction and 13(36%)had basal ganglia infarction.Magnetic resonance angiography was performed for 12 neonates,among whom 9(75%)had involvement of the middle cerebral artery.Electroencephalography was performed for 29 neonates,with sharp waves in 21 neonates(72%)and seizures in 10 neonates(34%).Symptomatic/supportive treatment varied across different hospitals.Neonatal Behavioral Neurological Assessment was performed for 12 neonates(33%,12/36),with a mean score of(32±4)points.The prognosis of 27 neonates was followed up to around 12 months of age,with 44%(12/27)of the neonates having a good prognosis.Conclusions Ischemic stroke is the main type of neonatal stroke,often with convulsions as the initial presentation,involvement of the middle cerebral artery,sharp waves on electroencephalography,and a relatively low neurodevelopment score.Symptomatic/supportive treatment is the main treatment method,and some neonates tend to have a poor prognosis.
6.Quality monitoring indicator system in blood banks of Shandong: applied in blood donation services, component preparation and blood supply process
Yuqing WU ; Hong ZHOU ; Zhijie ZHANG ; Zhiquan RONG ; Xuemei LI ; Zhe SONG ; Shuhong ZHAO ; Zhongsi YANG ; Qun LIU ; Lin ZHU ; Xiaojuan FAN ; Shuli SUN ; Wei ZHANG ; Jinyu HAN ; Haiyan HUANG ; Guangcai LIU ; Ping CHEN ; Xianwu AN ; Hui ZHANG ; Junxia REN ; Xuejing LI ; Chenxi YANG ; Bo ZHOU ; Hui YE ; Mingming QIAO ; Hua SHEN ; Dunzhu GONGJUE ; Yunlong ZHUANG
Chinese Journal of Blood Transfusion 2024;37(3):275-282
【Objective】 To establish an effective quality indicator monitoring system, scientifically and objectively evaluate the quality management level of blood banks, and achieve continuous improvement of quality management in blood bank. 【Methods】 A quality monitoring indicator system that covers the whole process of blood collection and supply was established, the questionnaire of Quality Monitoring Indicators for Blood Collection and Supply Process with clear definition of indicators and calculation formulas was distributed to 17 blood banks in Shandong. Statistical analysis of 21 quality monitoring indicators in terms of blood donation service (10 indicators), blood component preparation (7 indicators ), and blood supply (4 indicators) from each blood bank from January to December 2022 were conducted using SPSS25.0 software The differences in quality monitoring indicators of blood banks of different scales were analyzed. 【Results】 The average values of quality monitoring indicators for blood donation service process of 17 blood banks were as follows: 44.66% (2 233/5 000) of regular donors proportion, 0.22% (11/50) of adverse reactions incidence, 0.46% (23/5 000) of non-standard whole blood collection rate, 0.052% (13/25 000) of missed HBsAg screening rate, 99.42% (4 971/5 000) of first, puncture successful rate, 86.49% (173/200) of double platelet collection rate, 66.50% (133/200) of 400 mL whole blood collection rate, 99.25% (397/400) of donor satisfaction rate, 82.68% (2 067/2 500) of use rate of whole blood collection bags with bypass system with sample tube, and 1 case of occupational exposure in blood collection.There was a strong positive correlation between the proportion of regular blood donors and the collection rate of 400 mL whole blood (P<0.05). The platelet collection rate, incidence of adverse reactions to blood donation, and non-standard whole blood collection rate in large blood banks were significantly lower than those in medium and small blood banks (P<0.05). The average quality monitoring indicators for blood component preparation process of 17 blood banks were as follows: the leakage rate of blood component preparation bags was 0.03% (3/10 000), the discarding rate of lipemic blood was 3.05% (61/2 000), the discarding rate of hemolysis blood was 0.13%(13/10 000). 0.06 case had labeling errors, 8 bags had blood catheter leaks, 2.76 bags had blood puncture/connection leaks, and 0.59 cases had non-conforming consumables. The discarding rate of hemolysis blood of large blood banks was significantly lower than that of medium and small blood banks (P<0.05), and the discarding rate of lipemic blood of large and medium blood banks was significantly lower than that of small blood banks (P<0.05). The average values of quality monitoring indicators for blood supply process of 17 blood banks were as follows: the discarding rate of expired blood was 0.023% (23/100 000), the leakage rate during storage and distribution was of 0.009%(9/100 000), the discarding rate of returned blood was 0.106% (53/50 000), the service satisfaction of hospitals was 99.16% (2 479/2 500). The leakage rate of blood components during storage and distribution was statistically different with that of blood component preparation bags between different blood banks (P<0.05). There were statistically significant differences in the proportion of regular blood donors, incidence of adverse reactions, non-standard whole blood collection rate, 400 mL whole blood collection rate, double platelet collection rate, the blood bag leakage rate during preparation process, the blood components leakage rate during storage and distribution as well as the discarding rate of lipemic blood, hemolysis blood, expired blood and returned blood among large, medium and small blood banks (all P<0.05). 【Conclusion】 The establishment of a quality monitoring indicator system for blood donation services, blood component preparation and blood supply processes in Shandong has good applicability, feasibility and effectiveness. It can objectively evaluate the quality management level, facilitate the continuous improvement of the quality management system, promote the homogenization of blood management in the province and lay the foundation for future comprehensive evaluation of blood banks.
7.BRICS report of 2021: The distribution and antimicrobial resistance profile of clinical bacterial isolates from blood stream infections in China
Yunbo CHEN ; Jinru JI ; Zhiying LIU ; Chaoqun YING ; Qing YANG ; Haishen KONG ; Jiliang WANG ; Hui DING ; Haifeng MAO ; Yizheng ZHOU ; Yan JIN ; Yongyun LIU ; Yan GENG ; Yuanyuan DAI ; Hong LU ; Peng ZHANG ; Ying HUANG ; Donghong HUANG ; Xinhua QIANG ; Jilu SHEN ; Hongyun XU ; Fenghong CHEN ; Guolin LIAO ; Dan LIU ; Haixin DONG ; Jiangqin SONG ; Lu WANG ; Junmin CAO ; Lixia ZHANG ; Yanhong LI ; Dijing SONG ; Zhuo LI ; Youdong YIN ; Donghua LIU ; Liang GUO ; Qiang LIU ; Baohua ZHANG ; Rong XU ; Yinqiao DONG ; Shuyan HU ; Kunpeng LIANG ; Bo QUAN ; Lin ZHENG ; Ling MENG ; Liang LUAN ; Jinhua LIANG ; Weiping LIU ; Xuefei HU ; Pengpeng TIAN ; Xiaoping YAN ; Aiyun LI ; Jian LI ; Xiusan XIA ; Xiaoyan QI ; Dengyan QIAO ; Yonghong XIAO
Chinese Journal of Clinical Infectious Diseases 2023;16(1):33-47
Objective:To report the results of national surveillance on the distribution and antimicrobial resistance profile of clinical bacterial isolates from bloodstream infections in China in 2021.Methods:The clinical bacterial strains isolated from blood culture from member hospitals of Blood Bacterial Resistant Investigation Collaborative System (BRICS) were collected during January 2021 to December 2021. Antibiotic susceptibility tests were conducted by agar dilution or broth dilution methods recommended by Clinical Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI). WHONET 5.6 was used to analyze data.Results:During the study period, 11 013 bacterial strains were collected from 51 hospitals, of which 2 782 (25.3%) were Gram-positive bacteria and 8 231 (74.7%) were Gram-negative bacteria. The top 10 bacterial species were Escherichia coli (37.6%), Klebsiella pneumoniae (18.9%), Staphylococcus aureus (9.8%), coagulase-negative Staphylococci (6.3%), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (3.6%), Enterococcus faecium (3.6%), Acinetobacter baumannii (2.8%), Enterococcus faecalis (2.7%), Enterobacter cloacae (2.5%) and Klebsiella spp (2.1%). The prevalence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and methicillin-resistant coagulase-negative Staphylococcus aureus were 25.3% and 76.8%, respectively. No glycopeptide- and daptomycin-resistant Staphylococci was detected; more than 95.0% of Staphylococcus aureus were sensitive to ceftobiprole. No vancomycin-resistant Enterococci strains were detected. The rates of extended spectrum B-lactamase (ESBL)-producing isolated in Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae and Proteus mirabilis were 49.6%, 25.5% and 39.0%, respectively. The prevalence rates of carbapenem-resistance in Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae were 2.2% and 15.8%, respectively; 7.9% of carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae was resistant to ceftazidime/avibactam combination. Ceftobiprole demonstrated excellent activity against non-ESBL-producing Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae. Aztreonam/avibactam was highly active against carbapenem-resistant Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae. The prevalence rate of carbapenem-resistance in Acinetobacter baumannii was 60.0%, while polymyxin and tigecycline showed good activity against Acinetobacter baumannii (5.5% and 4.5%). The prevalence of carbapenem-resistance in Pseudomonas aeruginosa was 18.9%. Conclusions:The BRICS surveillance results in 2021 shows that the main pathogens of blood stream infection in China are gram-negative bacteria, in which Escherichia coli is the most common. The MRSA incidence shows a further decreasing trend in China and the overall prevalence of vancomycin-resistant Enterococci is low. The prevalence of Carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae is still on a high level, but the trend is downwards.
8.Association of Breastfeeding Duration with Body Composition in Children Aged 3-5 Years.
Li Ping SHEN ; Xue Hong PANG ; Jie WANG ; Yi Fan DUAN ; Qian ZHANG ; Yu Ying WANG ; Bo Wen CHEN ; Tao XU ; Wen Hua ZHAO ; Zhen Yu YANG
Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2023;36(7):569-584
OBJECTIVE:
This study aimed to assess the relationship between the body composition of children aged 3-5 years and breastfeeding status and duration.
METHODS:
The study was conducted using data from the National Nutrition and Health Systematic Survey for children 0-17 years of age in China (CNHSC), a nationwide cross-sectional study. Breastfeeding information and potential confounders were collected using standardized questionnaires administered through face-to-face interviews. The body composition of preschool children was measured using bioelectrical impedance analysis. A multivariate linear regression model was used to assess the relationship between breastfeeding duration and body composition after adjusting for potential confounders.
RESULTS:
In total, 2,008 participants were included in the study. Of these, 89.2% were ever breastfed and the median duration of breastfeeding was 12 months (IQR 7-15 months). Among children aged 3 years, the height-for-age Z-score (HAZ) for the ever breastfed group was lower than that for never breastfed group (0.12 vs. 0.42, P = 0.043). In addition, the weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ) of the ever breastfed group was lower than that of the never breastfed group (0.31 vs. 0.65, P = 0.026), and the WAZ was lower in children aged 4 years who breastfed between 12 and 23 months than in those who never breastfed. Compared to the formula-fed children, the fat-free mass of breastfed infants was higher for children aged 3 years (12.84 kg vs. 12.52 kg, P = 0.015) and lower for those aged 4 years (14.31 kg vs. 14.64 kg, P = 0.048), but no difference was detected for children aged 5 years (16.40 kg vs. 16.42 kg, P = 0.910) after adjusting for potential confounders. No significant difference was detected in the weight-for-height Z-score (WHZ), body mass index (BMI)-for-age Z-score (BAZ), fat-free mass index, and body fat indicators in the ever breastfed and never breastfed groups and among various breastfeeding duration groups for children aged 3-5 years.
CONCLUSION
No obvious associations were detected between breastfeeding duration, BMI, and fat mass indicators. Future prospective studies should explore the relationship between breastfeeding status and fat-free mass.
Infant
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Female
;
Child, Preschool
;
Humans
;
Infant, Newborn
;
Child
;
Adolescent
;
Breast Feeding
;
Prospective Studies
;
Cross-Sectional Studies
;
Body Mass Index
;
Body Composition
9.Epidemiological study of incidence of systematic lupus erythematosus in Yinzhou, Ningbo, 2016-2021.
Xue Feng LAI ; Zhi Ke LIU ; Peng SHEN ; Ye Xiang SUN ; Huai Chu LU ; Si Yan ZHAN ; Hong Bo LIN
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2023;44(7):1080-1085
Objective: To characterize the incidence density of systematic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in Yinzhou District of Ningbo from 2016 to 2021, and compare the age and gender specific differences. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted based on the related data from 2015 to 2021 collected from the Health Information Platform of Yinzhou. Suspected SLE cases in local residents were identified by fuzzy matching of International Classification of Diseases 10th edition code "M32" or Chinese text "lupus". The classification criteria from Systemic Lupus International Collaboration Clinics-2012 and The European League Against Rheumatism/American College of Rheumatology-2019 were used for case verification. SLE cases were identified with specific algorithm based on verification results, and new cases were identified with 1 year as the washout period. The incidence density and 95%CI were estimated by Poisson distribution. Results: From 2016 to 2021, a total of 1 551 921 permanent residents were registered in Yinzhou, in whom 51.52% were women. The M(Q1,Q3) age at enrollment was 40.38 (27.54, 53.54) years. The M(Q1,Q3) of follow-up person-years was 3.83 (0.41, 5.83) years. There were 451 new SLE cases, in which 352 were women (78.05%). The 6-year incidence density was 8.14/100 000 person-years (95%CI: 7.41/100 000 person-years-8.93/100 000 person-years) for the total population, 3.68/100 000 person-years (95%CI: 2.99/100 000 person-years-4.48/100 000 person-years) for men and 12.37/100 000 person-years (95%CI: 11.11/100 000 person-years- 13.73/100 000 person-years) for women. The incidence density in men appeared a small peak at 20-29 years old, and began to increase with age from 40 years old. The incidence density in women was highest in age group 20-29 years (16.57/100 000 person-years) and remained to be high until 30-79 years old. The incidence density of SLE in Yinzhou show no significant temporal trend from 2016 to 2021 (men: P=0.848; women: P=1.000). Conclusions: The incidence density of SLE in Yinzhou from 2016 to 2021 was similar to those of other areas in China. SLE has a high incidence in women, especially in the young and elderly, suggesting that more attention should be paid to the diagnosis and treatment of SLE in women.
Adult
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Aged
;
Female
;
Humans
;
Male
;
Middle Aged
;
Young Adult
;
Asian People
;
Incidence
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Lupus Erythematosus, Systemic/diagnosis*
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Retrospective Studies
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China/epidemiology*
10.A risk prediction model of cervical cancer developed based on nested case-control design.
Pei LI ; Zhi Ke LIU ; Hou Yu ZHAO ; Xue Yang LIU ; Peng SHEN ; Hong Bo LIN ; Si Yan ZHAN ; Feng SUN
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2023;44(7):1139-1145
Objective: To construct a cervical cancer risk prediction model based on nested case-control study design and Yinzhou Health Information Platform in Ningbo, and provide reliable reference for self-risk assessment of cervical cancer in local women. Methods: In local women aged 25-75 years old who had no history of cervical cancer registered in Yinzhou before October 31, 2018, a follow up was conducted for at least three years, the patients who developed cervical cancer during the follow up period were selected as the case group and matched with a control group at a ratio of 1∶10. The prediction indicators before the onset was used in model construction. Variables were selected by Lasso-logistic regression, the variables with non-zero β were selected to fit the logistic regression model and Bootstrap was used for internal validation. The discrimination of the model was evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUROC), and the calibration was evaluated by calibration curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Results: The prediction indicators included in the final model were age, smoking status, history of cervicitis, history of adenomyosis, HPV testing, and thinprep cytologic test. The AUROC calculated in the internal validation was 0.740 (95%CI:0.739-0.740), and the calibration curve was almost identical with the ideal curve, P=0.991 in Hosmer-Lemeshow test, indicating that the model discrimination and calibration were good. Conclusions: In this study, a simple and practical cervical cancer risk prediction model was developed. The model can be used in general population with strong interpretability, good discrimination and calibration in internal validation, which can provide a reference for women to assess their risk of cervical cancer.


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