1.Predicting Mortality and Cirrhosis-Related Complications with MELD3.0: A Multicenter Cohort Analysis
Jihye LIM ; Ji Hoon KIM ; Ahlim LEE ; Ji Won HAN ; Soon Kyu LEE ; Hyun YANG ; Heechul NAM ; Hae Lim LEE ; Do Seon SONG ; Sung Won LEE ; Hee Yeon KIM ; Jung Hyun KWON ; Chang Wook KIM ; U Im CHANG ; Soon Woo NAM ; Seok-Hwan KIM ; Pil Soo SUNG ; Jeong Won JANG ; Si Hyun BAE ; Jong Young CHOI ; Seung Kew YOON ; Myeong Jun SONG
Gut and Liver 2025;19(3):427-437
Background/Aims:
This study aimed to evaluate the performance of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) 3.0 for predicting mortality and liver-related complications compared with the Child-Pugh classification, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, the MELD, and the MELD sodium (MELDNa) score.
Methods:
We evaluated a multicenter retrospective cohort of incorporated patients with cirrhosis between 2013 and 2019. We conducted comparisons of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of the MELD3.0 and other models for predicting 3-month mortality. Additionally, we assessed the risk of cirrhosis-related complications according to the MELD3.0 score.
Results:
A total of 3,314 patients were included. The mean age was 55.9±11.3 years, and 70.2% of the patients were male. Within the initial 3 months, 220 patients (6.6%) died, and the MELD3.0had the best predictive performance among the tested models, with an AUROC of 0.851, outperforming the Child-Pugh classification, ALBI grade, MELD, and MELDNa. A high MELD3.0score was associated with an increased risk of mortality. Compared with that of the group with a MELD3.0 score <10 points, the adjusted hazard ratio of the group with a score of 10–20 pointswas 2.176, and that for the group with a score of ≥20 points was 4.892. Each 1-point increase inthe MELD3.0 score increased the risk of cirrhosis-related complications by 1.033-fold. The risk of hepatorenal syndrome showed the highest increase, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.149, followed by hepatic encephalopathy and ascites.
Conclusions
The MELD3.0 demonstrated robust prognostic performance in predicting mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Moreover, the MELD3.0 score was linked to cirrhosis-related complications, particularly those involving kidney function, such as hepatorenal syndrome and ascites.
2.Predicting Mortality and Cirrhosis-Related Complications with MELD3.0: A Multicenter Cohort Analysis
Jihye LIM ; Ji Hoon KIM ; Ahlim LEE ; Ji Won HAN ; Soon Kyu LEE ; Hyun YANG ; Heechul NAM ; Hae Lim LEE ; Do Seon SONG ; Sung Won LEE ; Hee Yeon KIM ; Jung Hyun KWON ; Chang Wook KIM ; U Im CHANG ; Soon Woo NAM ; Seok-Hwan KIM ; Pil Soo SUNG ; Jeong Won JANG ; Si Hyun BAE ; Jong Young CHOI ; Seung Kew YOON ; Myeong Jun SONG
Gut and Liver 2025;19(3):427-437
Background/Aims:
This study aimed to evaluate the performance of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) 3.0 for predicting mortality and liver-related complications compared with the Child-Pugh classification, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, the MELD, and the MELD sodium (MELDNa) score.
Methods:
We evaluated a multicenter retrospective cohort of incorporated patients with cirrhosis between 2013 and 2019. We conducted comparisons of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of the MELD3.0 and other models for predicting 3-month mortality. Additionally, we assessed the risk of cirrhosis-related complications according to the MELD3.0 score.
Results:
A total of 3,314 patients were included. The mean age was 55.9±11.3 years, and 70.2% of the patients were male. Within the initial 3 months, 220 patients (6.6%) died, and the MELD3.0had the best predictive performance among the tested models, with an AUROC of 0.851, outperforming the Child-Pugh classification, ALBI grade, MELD, and MELDNa. A high MELD3.0score was associated with an increased risk of mortality. Compared with that of the group with a MELD3.0 score <10 points, the adjusted hazard ratio of the group with a score of 10–20 pointswas 2.176, and that for the group with a score of ≥20 points was 4.892. Each 1-point increase inthe MELD3.0 score increased the risk of cirrhosis-related complications by 1.033-fold. The risk of hepatorenal syndrome showed the highest increase, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.149, followed by hepatic encephalopathy and ascites.
Conclusions
The MELD3.0 demonstrated robust prognostic performance in predicting mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Moreover, the MELD3.0 score was linked to cirrhosis-related complications, particularly those involving kidney function, such as hepatorenal syndrome and ascites.
3.Predicting Mortality and Cirrhosis-Related Complications with MELD3.0: A Multicenter Cohort Analysis
Jihye LIM ; Ji Hoon KIM ; Ahlim LEE ; Ji Won HAN ; Soon Kyu LEE ; Hyun YANG ; Heechul NAM ; Hae Lim LEE ; Do Seon SONG ; Sung Won LEE ; Hee Yeon KIM ; Jung Hyun KWON ; Chang Wook KIM ; U Im CHANG ; Soon Woo NAM ; Seok-Hwan KIM ; Pil Soo SUNG ; Jeong Won JANG ; Si Hyun BAE ; Jong Young CHOI ; Seung Kew YOON ; Myeong Jun SONG
Gut and Liver 2025;19(3):427-437
Background/Aims:
This study aimed to evaluate the performance of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) 3.0 for predicting mortality and liver-related complications compared with the Child-Pugh classification, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, the MELD, and the MELD sodium (MELDNa) score.
Methods:
We evaluated a multicenter retrospective cohort of incorporated patients with cirrhosis between 2013 and 2019. We conducted comparisons of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of the MELD3.0 and other models for predicting 3-month mortality. Additionally, we assessed the risk of cirrhosis-related complications according to the MELD3.0 score.
Results:
A total of 3,314 patients were included. The mean age was 55.9±11.3 years, and 70.2% of the patients were male. Within the initial 3 months, 220 patients (6.6%) died, and the MELD3.0had the best predictive performance among the tested models, with an AUROC of 0.851, outperforming the Child-Pugh classification, ALBI grade, MELD, and MELDNa. A high MELD3.0score was associated with an increased risk of mortality. Compared with that of the group with a MELD3.0 score <10 points, the adjusted hazard ratio of the group with a score of 10–20 pointswas 2.176, and that for the group with a score of ≥20 points was 4.892. Each 1-point increase inthe MELD3.0 score increased the risk of cirrhosis-related complications by 1.033-fold. The risk of hepatorenal syndrome showed the highest increase, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.149, followed by hepatic encephalopathy and ascites.
Conclusions
The MELD3.0 demonstrated robust prognostic performance in predicting mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Moreover, the MELD3.0 score was linked to cirrhosis-related complications, particularly those involving kidney function, such as hepatorenal syndrome and ascites.
4.Predicting Mortality and Cirrhosis-Related Complications with MELD3.0: A Multicenter Cohort Analysis
Jihye LIM ; Ji Hoon KIM ; Ahlim LEE ; Ji Won HAN ; Soon Kyu LEE ; Hyun YANG ; Heechul NAM ; Hae Lim LEE ; Do Seon SONG ; Sung Won LEE ; Hee Yeon KIM ; Jung Hyun KWON ; Chang Wook KIM ; U Im CHANG ; Soon Woo NAM ; Seok-Hwan KIM ; Pil Soo SUNG ; Jeong Won JANG ; Si Hyun BAE ; Jong Young CHOI ; Seung Kew YOON ; Myeong Jun SONG
Gut and Liver 2025;19(3):427-437
Background/Aims:
This study aimed to evaluate the performance of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) 3.0 for predicting mortality and liver-related complications compared with the Child-Pugh classification, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, the MELD, and the MELD sodium (MELDNa) score.
Methods:
We evaluated a multicenter retrospective cohort of incorporated patients with cirrhosis between 2013 and 2019. We conducted comparisons of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of the MELD3.0 and other models for predicting 3-month mortality. Additionally, we assessed the risk of cirrhosis-related complications according to the MELD3.0 score.
Results:
A total of 3,314 patients were included. The mean age was 55.9±11.3 years, and 70.2% of the patients were male. Within the initial 3 months, 220 patients (6.6%) died, and the MELD3.0had the best predictive performance among the tested models, with an AUROC of 0.851, outperforming the Child-Pugh classification, ALBI grade, MELD, and MELDNa. A high MELD3.0score was associated with an increased risk of mortality. Compared with that of the group with a MELD3.0 score <10 points, the adjusted hazard ratio of the group with a score of 10–20 pointswas 2.176, and that for the group with a score of ≥20 points was 4.892. Each 1-point increase inthe MELD3.0 score increased the risk of cirrhosis-related complications by 1.033-fold. The risk of hepatorenal syndrome showed the highest increase, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.149, followed by hepatic encephalopathy and ascites.
Conclusions
The MELD3.0 demonstrated robust prognostic performance in predicting mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Moreover, the MELD3.0 score was linked to cirrhosis-related complications, particularly those involving kidney function, such as hepatorenal syndrome and ascites.
5.Comparative analysis of body mass index and obesity-related anthropometric indices for mortality prediction: a study of the Namwon and Dong-gu cohort in Korea
Ye Rim KIM ; Min-Ho SHIN ; Young-Hoon LEE ; Seong-Woo CHOI ; Hae-Sung NAM ; Jeong-Ho YANG ; Sun-Seog KWEON
Epidemiology and Health 2024;46(1):e2024066-
OBJECTIVES:
This study investigated the associations between several obesity-related anthropometric indices and mortality in middle-aged and elderly populations to compare the indices’ predictive ability with that of the body mass index (BMI).
METHODS:
We analyzed data on 12 indices calculated from 19,805 community-based cohort participants (average age, 63.27 years; median follow-up, 13.49 years). Each index was calculated using directly measured values of height, weight, waist circumference (WC), and hip circumference (HC). We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for each index using Cox regression and evaluated mortality prediction with the Harrell concordance index (c-index).
RESULTS:
Adding anthropometric indices to the basic mortality model (c-index, 0.7723; 95% CI, 0.7647 to 0.7799) significantly increased the predictive power of BMI (c-index, 0.7735; 95% CI, 0.7659 to 0.7811), a body shape index (ABSI; c-index, 0.7735; 95% CI, 0.7659 to 0.7810), weight-adjusted waist index (WWI; c-index, 0.7731; 95% CI, 0.7656 to 0.7807), and waist to hip index (WHI; c-index, 0.7733; 95% CI, 0.7657 to 0.7809). The differences between the BMI model and the other 3 models were not statistically significant.
CONCLUSIONS
In predicting all-cause mortality, the ABSI, WWI, and WHI models based on WC or HC had stronger predictive power than conventional risk factors but were not significantly different from the BMI model.
6.Cohort profile: Multicenter Networks for Ideal Outcomes of Rare Pediatric Endocrine and Metabolic Diseases in Korea (OUTSPREAD study)
Yun Jeong LEE ; Chong Kun CHEON ; Junghwan SUH ; Jung-Eun MOON ; Moon Bae AHN ; Seong Hwan CHANG ; Jieun LEE ; Jin Ho CHOI ; Minsun KIM ; Han Hyuk LIM ; Jaehyun KIM ; Shin-Hye KIM ; Hae Sang LEE ; Yena LEE ; Eungu KANG ; Se Young KIM ; Yong Hee HONG ; Seung YANG ; Heon-Seok HAN ; Sochung CHUNG ; Won Kyoung CHO ; Eun Young KIM ; Jin Kyung KIM ; Kye Shik SHIM ; Eun-Gyong YOO ; Hae Soon KIM ; Aram YANG ; Sejin KIM ; Hyo-Kyoung NAM ; Sung Yoon CHO ; Young Ah LEE
Annals of Pediatric Endocrinology & Metabolism 2024;29(6):349-355
Rare endocrine diseases are complex conditions that require lifelong specialized care due to their chronic nature and associated long-term complications. In Korea, a lack of nationwide data on clinical practice and outcomes has limited progress in patient care. Therefore, the Multicenter Networks for Ideal Outcomes of Pediatric Rare Endocrine and Metabolic Disease (OUTSPREAD) study was initiated. This study involves 30 centers across Korea. The study aims to improve the long-term prognosis of Korean patients with rare endocrine diseases by collecting comprehensive clinical data, biospecimens, and patient-reported outcomes to identify complications and unmet needs in patient care. Patients with childhood-onset pituitary, adrenal, or gonadal disorders, such as craniopharyngioma, congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH), and Turner syndrome were prioritized. The planned enrollment is 1,300 patients during the first study phase (2022–2024). Clinical, biochemical, and imaging data from diagnosis, treatment, and follow-up during 1980–2023 were retrospectively reviewed. For patients who agreed to participate in the prospective cohort, clinical data and biospecimens will be prospectively collected to discover ideal biomarkers that predict the effectiveness of disease control measures and prognosis. Patient-reported outcomes, including quality of life and depression scales, will be evaluated to assess psychosocial outcomes. Additionally, a substudy on CAH patients will develop a steroid hormone profiling method using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry to improve diagnosis and monitoring of treatment outcomes. This study will address unmet clinical needs by discovering ideal biomarkers, introducing evidence-based treatment guidelines, and ultimately improving long-term outcomes in the areas of rare endocrine and metabolic diseases.
7.Comparative analysis of body mass index and obesity-related anthropometric indices for mortality prediction: a study of the Namwon and Dong-gu cohort in Korea
Ye Rim KIM ; Min-Ho SHIN ; Young-Hoon LEE ; Seong-Woo CHOI ; Hae-Sung NAM ; Jeong-Ho YANG ; Sun-Seog KWEON
Epidemiology and Health 2024;46(1):e2024066-
OBJECTIVES:
This study investigated the associations between several obesity-related anthropometric indices and mortality in middle-aged and elderly populations to compare the indices’ predictive ability with that of the body mass index (BMI).
METHODS:
We analyzed data on 12 indices calculated from 19,805 community-based cohort participants (average age, 63.27 years; median follow-up, 13.49 years). Each index was calculated using directly measured values of height, weight, waist circumference (WC), and hip circumference (HC). We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for each index using Cox regression and evaluated mortality prediction with the Harrell concordance index (c-index).
RESULTS:
Adding anthropometric indices to the basic mortality model (c-index, 0.7723; 95% CI, 0.7647 to 0.7799) significantly increased the predictive power of BMI (c-index, 0.7735; 95% CI, 0.7659 to 0.7811), a body shape index (ABSI; c-index, 0.7735; 95% CI, 0.7659 to 0.7810), weight-adjusted waist index (WWI; c-index, 0.7731; 95% CI, 0.7656 to 0.7807), and waist to hip index (WHI; c-index, 0.7733; 95% CI, 0.7657 to 0.7809). The differences between the BMI model and the other 3 models were not statistically significant.
CONCLUSIONS
In predicting all-cause mortality, the ABSI, WWI, and WHI models based on WC or HC had stronger predictive power than conventional risk factors but were not significantly different from the BMI model.
8.Cohort profile: Multicenter Networks for Ideal Outcomes of Rare Pediatric Endocrine and Metabolic Diseases in Korea (OUTSPREAD study)
Yun Jeong LEE ; Chong Kun CHEON ; Junghwan SUH ; Jung-Eun MOON ; Moon Bae AHN ; Seong Hwan CHANG ; Jieun LEE ; Jin Ho CHOI ; Minsun KIM ; Han Hyuk LIM ; Jaehyun KIM ; Shin-Hye KIM ; Hae Sang LEE ; Yena LEE ; Eungu KANG ; Se Young KIM ; Yong Hee HONG ; Seung YANG ; Heon-Seok HAN ; Sochung CHUNG ; Won Kyoung CHO ; Eun Young KIM ; Jin Kyung KIM ; Kye Shik SHIM ; Eun-Gyong YOO ; Hae Soon KIM ; Aram YANG ; Sejin KIM ; Hyo-Kyoung NAM ; Sung Yoon CHO ; Young Ah LEE
Annals of Pediatric Endocrinology & Metabolism 2024;29(6):349-355
Rare endocrine diseases are complex conditions that require lifelong specialized care due to their chronic nature and associated long-term complications. In Korea, a lack of nationwide data on clinical practice and outcomes has limited progress in patient care. Therefore, the Multicenter Networks for Ideal Outcomes of Pediatric Rare Endocrine and Metabolic Disease (OUTSPREAD) study was initiated. This study involves 30 centers across Korea. The study aims to improve the long-term prognosis of Korean patients with rare endocrine diseases by collecting comprehensive clinical data, biospecimens, and patient-reported outcomes to identify complications and unmet needs in patient care. Patients with childhood-onset pituitary, adrenal, or gonadal disorders, such as craniopharyngioma, congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH), and Turner syndrome were prioritized. The planned enrollment is 1,300 patients during the first study phase (2022–2024). Clinical, biochemical, and imaging data from diagnosis, treatment, and follow-up during 1980–2023 were retrospectively reviewed. For patients who agreed to participate in the prospective cohort, clinical data and biospecimens will be prospectively collected to discover ideal biomarkers that predict the effectiveness of disease control measures and prognosis. Patient-reported outcomes, including quality of life and depression scales, will be evaluated to assess psychosocial outcomes. Additionally, a substudy on CAH patients will develop a steroid hormone profiling method using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry to improve diagnosis and monitoring of treatment outcomes. This study will address unmet clinical needs by discovering ideal biomarkers, introducing evidence-based treatment guidelines, and ultimately improving long-term outcomes in the areas of rare endocrine and metabolic diseases.
9.Comparative analysis of body mass index and obesity-related anthropometric indices for mortality prediction: a study of the Namwon and Dong-gu cohort in Korea
Ye Rim KIM ; Min-Ho SHIN ; Young-Hoon LEE ; Seong-Woo CHOI ; Hae-Sung NAM ; Jeong-Ho YANG ; Sun-Seog KWEON
Epidemiology and Health 2024;46(1):e2024066-
OBJECTIVES:
This study investigated the associations between several obesity-related anthropometric indices and mortality in middle-aged and elderly populations to compare the indices’ predictive ability with that of the body mass index (BMI).
METHODS:
We analyzed data on 12 indices calculated from 19,805 community-based cohort participants (average age, 63.27 years; median follow-up, 13.49 years). Each index was calculated using directly measured values of height, weight, waist circumference (WC), and hip circumference (HC). We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for each index using Cox regression and evaluated mortality prediction with the Harrell concordance index (c-index).
RESULTS:
Adding anthropometric indices to the basic mortality model (c-index, 0.7723; 95% CI, 0.7647 to 0.7799) significantly increased the predictive power of BMI (c-index, 0.7735; 95% CI, 0.7659 to 0.7811), a body shape index (ABSI; c-index, 0.7735; 95% CI, 0.7659 to 0.7810), weight-adjusted waist index (WWI; c-index, 0.7731; 95% CI, 0.7656 to 0.7807), and waist to hip index (WHI; c-index, 0.7733; 95% CI, 0.7657 to 0.7809). The differences between the BMI model and the other 3 models were not statistically significant.
CONCLUSIONS
In predicting all-cause mortality, the ABSI, WWI, and WHI models based on WC or HC had stronger predictive power than conventional risk factors but were not significantly different from the BMI model.
10.Cohort profile: Multicenter Networks for Ideal Outcomes of Rare Pediatric Endocrine and Metabolic Diseases in Korea (OUTSPREAD study)
Yun Jeong LEE ; Chong Kun CHEON ; Junghwan SUH ; Jung-Eun MOON ; Moon Bae AHN ; Seong Hwan CHANG ; Jieun LEE ; Jin Ho CHOI ; Minsun KIM ; Han Hyuk LIM ; Jaehyun KIM ; Shin-Hye KIM ; Hae Sang LEE ; Yena LEE ; Eungu KANG ; Se Young KIM ; Yong Hee HONG ; Seung YANG ; Heon-Seok HAN ; Sochung CHUNG ; Won Kyoung CHO ; Eun Young KIM ; Jin Kyung KIM ; Kye Shik SHIM ; Eun-Gyong YOO ; Hae Soon KIM ; Aram YANG ; Sejin KIM ; Hyo-Kyoung NAM ; Sung Yoon CHO ; Young Ah LEE
Annals of Pediatric Endocrinology & Metabolism 2024;29(6):349-355
Rare endocrine diseases are complex conditions that require lifelong specialized care due to their chronic nature and associated long-term complications. In Korea, a lack of nationwide data on clinical practice and outcomes has limited progress in patient care. Therefore, the Multicenter Networks for Ideal Outcomes of Pediatric Rare Endocrine and Metabolic Disease (OUTSPREAD) study was initiated. This study involves 30 centers across Korea. The study aims to improve the long-term prognosis of Korean patients with rare endocrine diseases by collecting comprehensive clinical data, biospecimens, and patient-reported outcomes to identify complications and unmet needs in patient care. Patients with childhood-onset pituitary, adrenal, or gonadal disorders, such as craniopharyngioma, congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH), and Turner syndrome were prioritized. The planned enrollment is 1,300 patients during the first study phase (2022–2024). Clinical, biochemical, and imaging data from diagnosis, treatment, and follow-up during 1980–2023 were retrospectively reviewed. For patients who agreed to participate in the prospective cohort, clinical data and biospecimens will be prospectively collected to discover ideal biomarkers that predict the effectiveness of disease control measures and prognosis. Patient-reported outcomes, including quality of life and depression scales, will be evaluated to assess psychosocial outcomes. Additionally, a substudy on CAH patients will develop a steroid hormone profiling method using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry to improve diagnosis and monitoring of treatment outcomes. This study will address unmet clinical needs by discovering ideal biomarkers, introducing evidence-based treatment guidelines, and ultimately improving long-term outcomes in the areas of rare endocrine and metabolic diseases.

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