1.Genetic diversity analysis and fingerprinting of 175 Chimonanthus praecox germplasm based on SSR molecular marker.
Xiujun WANG ; Yanbei ZHAO ; Jing WANG ; Zihang LI ; Jitang ZHANG ; Qingwei LI
Chinese Journal of Biotechnology 2024;40(1):252-268
The elucidation of resources pertaining to the Chimonanthus praecox varieties and the establishment of a fingerprint serve as crucial underpinnings for advancing scientific inquiry and industrial progress in relation to C. praecox. Employing the SSR molecular marker technology, an exploration of the genetic diversity of 175 C. praecox varieties (lines) in the Yanling region was conducted, and an analysis of the genetic diversity among these varieties was carried out using the UPDM clustering method in NTSYSpc 2.1 software. We analyzed the genetic structure of 175 germplasm using Structure v2.3.3 software based on a Bayesian model. General linear model (GLM) association was utilized to analyze traits and markers. The genetic diversity analysis revealed a mean number of alleles (Na) of 6.857, a mean expected heterozygosity (He) of 0.496 3, a mean observed heterozygosity (Ho) of 0.503 7, a mean genetic diversity index of Nei՚s of 0.494 9, and a mean Shannon information index of 0.995 8. These results suggest that the C. praecox population in Yanling exhibits a rich genetic diversity. Additionally, the population structure and the UPDM clustering were examined. In the GLM model, a total of fifteen marker loci exhibited significant (P < 0.05) association with eight phenotypic traits, with the explained phenotypic variation ranging from 14.90% to 36.03%. The construction of fingerprints for C. praecox varieties (lines) was accomplished by utilizing eleven primer pairs with the highest polymorphic information content, resulting in the analysis of 175 SSR markers. The present study offers a thorough examination of the genetic diversity and SSR molecular markers of C. praecox in Yanling, and establishes a fundamental germplasm repository of C. praecox, thereby furnishing theoretical underpinnings for the selection and cultivation of novel and superior C. praecox varieties, varietal identification, and resource preservation and exploitation.
Bayes Theorem
;
Biomarkers
;
Phenotype
;
Cluster Analysis
;
Genetic Variation
2.Evaluation of the clinical effect of acupuncture in treatment of neck pain in cervical spondylosis based on propensity score matching.
Yin-Juan ZHANG ; Jia-Qi YANG ; Jie WU ; Jian-En GUO ; Zhi-Xin YANG ; Jin-Ying LIU ; Yu-Man WANG
Chinese Acupuncture & Moxibustion 2023;43(8):907-910
OBJECTIVE:
To observe the clinical effect and safety of acupuncture in treatment of neck pain due to cervical spondylosis.
METHODS:
According to the patients' preference and acceptance for the interventions of neck pain induced by cervical spondylosis, an acupuncture group (221 cases) and a non-acupuncture group (251 cases) were divided. After the control of confounding factors with propensity score matching, 218 cases were included in either acupuncture group or non-acupuncture group. In the acupuncture group, acupuncture was applied to Dazhui (GV 14), Baihui (GV 20), ashi points, bilateral neck-Jiaji (EX-B 2), Fengchi (GB 20), Houxi (SI 3), Shenmai (BL 62), etc. The treatment was given once daily, one course of intervention was composed of 5 treatments and 3 courses were included. In the non-acupuncture group, the oral administration of imrecoxib tablets and cobalt tablets was prescribed for 2 weeks. Before and after treatment, the scores of Northwick Park questionnaire (NPQ) and the simplified McGill pain questionnaire (SF-MPQ) were observed, and the safety was assessed in patients of the two groups.
RESULTS:
After treatment completion, the scores of NPQ and SF-MPQ were all reduced when compared with those before treatment in each group (P<0.001), and the scores of NPQ and SF-MPQ in the acupuncture group were lower than those of the non-acupuncture group (P<0.001). The incidence of adverse reactions was 6.0% (13/218) in the acupuncture group and was 10.1% (22/218) in the non-acupuncture group, without statistical significance in comparison (P>0.05).
CONCLUSION
Acupuncture is effective and safe in the relief of neck pain and the improvement of comprehensive quality of life in the patients with cervical spondylosis.
Humans
;
Neck Pain/therapy*
;
Propensity Score
;
Quality of Life
;
Acupuncture Points
;
Acupuncture Therapy
;
Spondylosis/therapy*
;
Treatment Outcome
3.Contrast-enhanced ultrasound and contrast-enhanced computed tomography for differentiating mass-forming pancreatitis from pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma: a meta-analysis.
Jie YANG ; Jiayan HUANG ; Yonggang ZHANG ; Keyu ZENG ; Min LIAO ; Zhenpeng JIANG ; Wuyongga BAO ; Qiang LU
Chinese Medical Journal 2023;136(17):2028-2036
BACKGROUND:
Patients with mass-forming pancreatitis (MFP) or pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) presented similar clinical symptoms, but required different treatment approaches and had different survival outcomes. This meta-analysis aimed to compare the diagnostic performance of contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) and contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) in differentiating MFP from PDAC.
METHODS:
A literature search was performed in the PubMed, EMBASE (Ovid), Cochrane Library (CENTRAL), China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), Weipu (VIP), and WanFang databases to identify original studies published from inception to August 20, 2021. Studies reporting the diagnostic performances of CEUS and CECT for differentiating MFP from PDAC were included. The meta-analysis was performed with Stata 15.0 software. The outcomes included the pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (+LR), negative likelihood ratio (-LR), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), and summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curves of CEUS and CECT. Meta-regression was conducted to investigate heterogeneity. Bayesian network meta-analysis was conducted to indirectly compare the overall diagnostic performance.
RESULTS:
Twenty-six studies with 2115 pancreatic masses were included. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of CEUS for MFP were 82% (95% confidence interval [CI], 73%-88%; I2 = 0.00%) and 95% (95% CI, 90%-97%; I2 = 63.44%), respectively; the overall +LR, -LR, and DOR values were 15.12 (95% CI, 7.61-30.01), 0.19 (95% CI, 0.13-0.29), and 78.91 (95% CI, 30.94-201.27), respectively; and the area under the SROC curve (AUC) was 0.90 (95% CI, 0.87-92). However, the overall sensitivity and specificity of CECT were 81% (95% CI, 75-85%; I2 = 66.37%) and 94% (95% CI, 90-96%; I2 = 74.87%); the overall +LR, -LR, and DOR values were 12.91 (95% CI, 7.86-21.20), 0.21 (95% CI, 0.16-0.27), and 62.53 (95% CI, 34.45-113.51), respectively; and, the SROC AUC was 0.92 (95% CI, 0.90-0.94). The overall diagnostic accuracy of CEUS was comparable to that of CECT for the differential diagnosis of MFP and PDAC (relative DOR 1.26, 95% CI [0.42-3.83], P > 0.05).
CONCLUSIONS
CEUS and CECT have comparable diagnostic performance for differentiating MFP from PDAC, and should be considered as mutually complementary diagnostic tools for suspected focal pancreatic lesions.
Humans
;
Contrast Media
;
Bayes Theorem
;
Tomography, X-Ray Computed/methods*
;
Pancreatic Neoplasms/diagnostic imaging*
;
Carcinoma, Pancreatic Ductal/diagnostic imaging*
;
Sensitivity and Specificity
;
Pancreatitis/diagnostic imaging*
;
Ultrasonography/methods*
4.Front-line therapy for brain metastases and non-brain metastases in advanced epidermal growth factor receptor-mutated non-small cell lung cancer: a network meta-analysis.
Yixiang ZHU ; Chengcheng LIU ; Ziyi XU ; Zihua ZOU ; Tongji XIE ; Puyuan XING ; Le WANG ; Junling LI
Chinese Medical Journal 2023;136(21):2551-2561
BACKGROUND:
The brain is a common metastatic site in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), resulting in a relatively poor prognosis. Systemic therapy with epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)-tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) is recommended as the first-line treatment for EGFR -mutated, advanced NSCLC patients. However, intracranial activity varies in different drugs. Thus, brain metastasis (BM) should be considered when choosing the treatment regimens. We conducted this network meta-analysis to explore the optimal first-line therapeutic schedule for advanced EGFR -mutated NSCLC patients with different BM statuses.
METHODS:
Randomized controlled trials focusing on EGFR-TKIs (alone or in combination) in advanced and EGFR -mutant NSCLC patients, who have not received systematic treatment, were systematically searched up to December 2021. We extracted and analyzed progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). A network meta-analysis was performed with the Bayesian statistical model to determine the survival outcomes of all included therapy regimens using the R software. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to compare intervention measures, and overall rankings of therapies were estimated under the Bayesian framework.
RESULTS:
This analysis included 17 RCTs with 5077 patients and 12 therapies, including osimertinib + bevacizumab, aumolertinib, osimertinib, afatinib, dacomitinib, standards of care (SoC, including gefitinib, erlotinib, or icotinib), SoC + apatinib, SoC + bevacizumab, SoC + ramucirumab, SoC + pemetrexed based chemotherapy (PbCT), PbCT, and pemetrexed free chemotherapy (PfCT). For patients with BM, SoC + PbCT improved PFS compared with SoC (HR = 0.40, 95% CI: 0.17-0.95), and osimertinib + bevacizumab was most likely to rank first in PFS, with a cumulative probability of 34.5%, followed by aumolertinib, with a cumulative probability of 28.3%. For patients without BM, osimertinib + bevacizumab, osimertinib, aumolertinib, SoC + PbCT, dacomitinib, SoC + ramucirumab, SoC + bevacizumab, and afatinib showed superior efficacy compared with SoC (HR = 0.43, 95% CI: 0.20-0.90; HR = 0.46, 95% CI: 0.31-0.68; HR = 0.51, 95% CI: 0.34-0.77; HR = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.38-0.66; HR = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.43-0.89; HR = 0.64, 95% CI: 0.44-0.94; HR = 0.61, 95% CI: 0.48-0.76; HR = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.50-1.00), PbCT (HR = 0.29, 95% CI: 0.11-0.74; HR = 0.31, 95% CI: 0.15-0.62; HR = 0.34, 95% CI: 0.17-0.69; HR = 0.34, 95% CI: 0.18-0.64; HR = 0.42, 95% CI: 0.21-0.82; HR = 0.43, 95% CI: 0.22-0.87; HR = 0.41, 95% CI: 0.22-0.74; HR = 0.48, 95% CI: 0.31-0.75), and PfCT (HR = 0.14, 95% CI: 0.06-0.32; HR = 0.15, 95% CI: 0.09-0.26; HR = 0.17, 95% CI: 0.09-0.29; HR = 0.16, 95% CI: 0.10-0.26; HR = 0.20, 95% CI: 0.12-0.35; HR = 0.21, 95% CI: 0.12-0.39; HR = 0.20, 95% CI: 0.12-0.31; HR = 0.23, 95% CI: 0.16-0.34) in terms of PFS. And, SoC + apatinib showed relatively superior PFS when compared with PbCT (HR = 0.44, 95% CI: 0.22-0.92) and PfCT (HR = 0.21, 95% CI: 0.12-0.39), but similar PFS to SoC (HR = 0.65, 95% CI: 0.42-1.03). No statistical differences were observed for PFS in patients without BM between PbCT and SoC (HR = 1.49, 95% CI: 0.84-2.64), but both showed favorable PFS when compared with PfCT (PfCT vs. SoC, HR = 3.09, 95% CI: 2.06-4.55; PbCT vs. PfCT, HR = 0.14, 95% CI: 0.06-0.32). For patients without BM, osimertinib + bevacizumab was most likely to rank the first, with cumulative probabilities of 47.1%. For OS, SoC + PbCT was most likely to rank first in patients with and without BM, with cumulative probabilities of 46.8%, and 37.3%, respectively.
CONCLUSION
Osimertinib + bevacizumab is most likely to rank first in PFS in advanced EGFR -mutated NSCLC patients with or without BM, and SoC + PbCT is most likely to rank first in OS.
Humans
;
Carcinoma, Non-Small-Cell Lung/metabolism*
;
Afatinib/therapeutic use*
;
Lung Neoplasms/metabolism*
;
Bevacizumab/therapeutic use*
;
Bayes Theorem
;
Network Meta-Analysis
;
Protein Kinase Inhibitors/therapeutic use*
;
Pemetrexed/therapeutic use*
;
ErbB Receptors/genetics*
;
Brain Neoplasms/genetics*
;
Mutation/genetics*
6.Network Meta-analysis of oral Chinese patent medicines in treating type 2 diabetes mellitus complicated with angina pectoris of coronary heart disease.
Xu-Ming ZHANG ; Xiao-Xiao ZHAO ; Yi LIU ; Yan-Ming XIE
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2023;48(18):5078-5090
Bayesian network Meta-analysis was employed to compare the efficacy of different oral Chinese patent medicines in treating type 2 diabetes mellitus with angina pectoris of coronary heart disease. Randomized controlled trial(RCT) of oral Chinese patent medicines in treating type 2 diabetes mellitus complicated with angina pectoris of coronary heart disease were retrieved from 8 Chinese and English databases including CNKI, Wanfang, VIP, SinoMed, EMbase, PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science with the time interval from inception to November 2022. The BUGSnet package in R 4.2.1 was used to conduct Meta-analysis. A total of 45 RCTs were included, involving 4 727 patients and 7 oral Chinese patent medicines. Network Meta-analysis showed that the conventio-nal western medicine combined with Chinese patent medicines improved the outcome indicators. Shexiang Baoxin Pills + conventional western medicine had the best effect on reducing the incidence of adverse cardiovascular events, and Yixinshu Capsules + conventional western medicine on reducing the frequency and duration of angina pectoris. The conventional western medicine combined with oral Chinese patent medicines can reduce blood glucose indicators. Yindan Xinnaotong Soft Capsules + conventional western medicine had the best effect on reducing fasting blood glucose(FBG), 2 hours postprandial blood glucose(PBG), and glycosylated hemoglobin(HbA1c). The conventional western medicine combined with oral Chinese patent medicines can reduce blood lipid indicators. Yixinshu Capsules + conventional western medicine had the best effect on reducing total cholesterol(TC) and low density lipoprotein-cholesterol(LDL-C), and Yindan Xinnaotong Soft Capsules + conventional western medicine on reducing triglyceride(TG). Current evidence suggests that the patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus complicated with angina pectoris of coronary heart disease could reasonably choose oral Chinese patent medicines on the basis of routine antiplatelet, anticoagulant, hypoglycemic, and antihypertensive therapies, which could reduce the incidence of adverse cardiovascular events, alleviate the symptoms of angina pectoris, and reduce the glucose and lipid metabolism indicators. Shexiang Baoxin Pills + conventional treatment and Yixinshu Capsules + conventional western medicine have better effect on angina pectoris, Yindan Xinnaotong Soft Capsules + conventional western medicine on lowering blood glucose, and Yindan Xinnaotong Soft Capsules + conventional western medicine and Yixinshu Capsules + conventional western medicine on reducing blood lipid. Due to the lack of direct comparative results between Chinese patent medicines and other factors, high-quality studies remain to be carried out for further verification.
Humans
;
Nonprescription Drugs
;
Network Meta-Analysis
;
Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/drug therapy*
;
Bayes Theorem
;
Blood Glucose
;
Angina Pectoris/drug therapy*
;
Coronary Disease/drug therapy*
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/therapeutic use*
;
Capsules
;
Lipids
;
Cholesterol
7.Network Meta-analysis of 11 Chinese patent medicines in treatment of dilated cardiomyopathy.
Zhuo-Xi WANG ; He WANG ; Ji-Fang BAN ; Ya-Bin ZHOU ; Rui QIE
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2023;48(24):6778-6797
Bayesian network Meta-analysis was performed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of different Chinese patent medicines in the treatment of dilated cardiomyopathy. The PubMed, EMbase, Cochrane Library, CNKI, Wanfang, and VIP were searched for the randomized controlled trial(RCT) from the inception to May 2023. The quality of the included RCT was evaluated by the Cochrane risk of bias assessment tool, and the data were analyzed by RStudio 3.6.3 calling the "gemtc" package. A total of 96 RCTs involving 8 452 patients, 11 Chinese patent medicines, and 8 outcome indicators were included. Network Meta-analysis is described as follows.(1)In terms of improving clinical total effective rate, except Yixinshu Capsules + conventional western medicine, Shexiang Baoxin Pills + conventional western medicine, and Xinshuai Mixture + conventional western medicine, the other Chinese patent medicines combined with conventional western medicine were superior to conventional western medicine alone, and Shenqi Yiqi Dropping Pills + conventional western medicine had the best effect.(2)In terms of improving left ventricular ejection fraction(LVEF), except Yixinshu Capsules + conventional western medicine and Shensong Yangxin Capsules + conventional western medicine, other Chinese patent medicines combined with conventional western medicine outperformed conventional western medicine alone, and Shexiang Baoxin Pills + conventional western medicine had the best effect.(3)In terms of reducing left ventricular end-diastolic dimension(LVEDD), Getong Tongluo Capsules + conventional western medicine, Xinshuai Mixture + conventional western medicine, Huangqi Mixture + conventional western medicine, Tongxinluo Capsules + conventional western medicine, Wenxin Granules + conventional western medicine, and Qili Qiangxin Capsules + conventional western medicine were better than conventional western medicine alone, and Wenxin Granules + conventional western medicine had the best effect.(4)There was no significant difference in reducing left ventricular end-systolic diameter(LVESD) between Chinese patent medicines combined with conventional western medicine and conventional western medicine alone.(5)In terms of improving 6-minute walking trail(6MWT), Yangxinshi Tablets + conventional western medicine, Yixinshu Capsules + conventional western medicine, Shenqi Yiqi Dropping Pills + conventional western medicine, Wenxin Granules + conventional western medicine, and Qili Qiangxin Capsules + conventional western medicine were superior to conventional western medicine alone, and Shenqi Yiqi Dropping Pills + conventional western medicine had the best effect.(6)In reducing brain natriuretic peptide(BNP), Xinshuai Mixture + conventional western medicine ourperformed conventional western medicine alone.(7)In reducing hypersensitive C-reactive protein(hs-CRP), Shenqi Yiqi Dropping Pills + conventional western medicine, Qili Qiangxin Capsules + conventional western medicine outperformed conventional western medicine alone, and Qili Qiangxin Capsules + conventional western medicine had the best effect.(8)In terms of safety, adverse reactions were reported in both groups. In conclusion, Chinese patent medicine combined with conventional western medicine were more effective in the treatment of dilated cardiomyopathy. The combinations relieve clinical symptoms and improve cardiac function indexes, and thus can be used according to the patients' conditions in clinical practice. However, limited by the quality and sample size of the included studies, the conclusion remains to be verified by multi-center, large-sample, and high-quality RCT in the future.
Humans
;
Bayes Theorem
;
Cardiomyopathy, Dilated/drug therapy*
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/therapeutic use*
;
Natriuretic Peptide, Brain
;
Network Meta-Analysis
;
Nonprescription Drugs/therapeutic use*
;
Stroke Volume
;
Ventricular Function, Left
8.Correlation study on the influencing factors of semitendinosus insertion location.
YALIKUN YUSUFU ; Yu ZHANG ; Dongyang CHEN ; Qing JIANG
Chinese Journal of Reparative and Reconstructive Surgery 2023;37(8):978-981
OBJECTIVE:
To investigate the relationship between the vertical distance from semitendinosus insertion to tibial plateau (S-T) and the physical characteristics of patients, in order to provide reference for incision design to expose the semitendinosus insertion.
METHODS:
The patients with ligament injury who underwent primary anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction between January 2022 and December 2022 were selected as the research subjects. The patients' baseline data were collected, including age, gender, height, and body mass. During reconstruction operation, the S-T was measured. Considering the S-T as the dependent variable and baseline data as the independent variable, multiple linear regression analysis was used to establish a regression equation to determine the possible influencing factors of semitendinosus insertion location.
RESULTS:
According to the selection standard, a total of 214 patients were enrolled, including 156 males and 58 females, aged (27±9) years (14-49 years), with a height of (174.7±6.8) cm (range, 160-196 cm) and a body mass of (73.43±12.35) kg (range, 53-105 kg). The S-T was (56.36±3.61) mm (range, 47-67 mm). The multiple linear regression analysis results showed that the height was positively correlated with S-T (β=0.407, SE=0.055, t=7.543, P<0.001); the regression equation was S-T=-14.701+0.407×height, R2=0.690.
CONCLUSION
There was a linear relationship between the height and semitendinosus insertion. The location of semitendinosus insertion estimated by the formula (S-T=-14.701+0.407×height) is reasonable, which provides a theoretical basis for rapid, accurate, and safe location of semitendinosus insertion and design of surgical incision in clinic.
Female
;
Male
;
Humans
;
Correlation of Data
;
Hamstring Muscles
;
Plastic Surgery Procedures
;
Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction
;
Physical Examination
9.Evaluation of extravascular lung water index in critically ill patients based on lung ultrasound radiomics analysis combined with machine learning.
Weiyu MENG ; Chi ZHANG ; Juntao HU ; Zhanhong TANG
Chinese Critical Care Medicine 2023;35(10):1074-1079
OBJECTIVE:
To explore lung ultrasound radiomics features which related to extravascular lung water index (EVLWI), and to predict EVLWI in critically ill patients based on lung ultrasound radiomics combined with machine learning and validate its effectiveness.
METHODS:
A retrospective case-control study was conducted. The lung ultrasound videos and pulse indicated continuous cardiac output (PiCCO) monitoring results of critically ill patients admitted to the department of critical care medicine of the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University from November 2021 to October 2022 were collected, and randomly divided into training set and validation set at 8:2. The corresponding images from lung ultrasound videos were obtained to extract radiomics features. The EVLWI measured by PiCCO was regarded as the "gold standard", and the radiomics features of training set was filtered through statistical analysis and LASSO algorithm. Eight machine learning models were trained using filtered radiomics features including random forest (RF), extreme gradient boost (XGBoost), decision tree (DT), Naive Bayes (NB), multi-layer perceptron (MLP), K-nearest neighbor (KNN), support vector machine (SVM), and Logistic regression (LR). Receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) was plotted to evaluate the predictive performance of models on EVLWI in the validation set.
RESULTS:
A total of 151 samples from 30 patients were enrolled (including 906 lung ultrasound videos and 151 PiCCO monitoring results), 120 in the training set, and 31 in the validation set. There were no statistically significant differences in main baseline data including gender, age, body mass index (BMI), mean arterial pressure (MAP), central venous pressure (CVP), heart rate (HR), cardiac index (CI), cardiac function index (CFI), stroke volume index (SVI), global end diastolic volume index (GEDVI), systemic vascular resistance index (SVRI), pulmonary vascular permeability index (PVPI) and EVLWI. The overall EVLWI range in 151 PiCCO monitoring results was 3.7-25.6 mL/kg. Layered analysis showed that both datasets had EVLWI in the 7-15 mL/kg interval, and there was no statistically significant difference in EVLWI distribution. Two radiomics features were selected by using LASSO algorithm, namely grayscale non-uniformity (weight was -0.006 464) and complexity (weight was -0.167 583), and they were used for modeling. ROC curve analysis showed that the MLP model had better predictive performance. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the prediction validation set EVLWI was higher than that of RF, XGBoost, DT, KNN, LR, SVM, NB models (0.682 vs. 0.658, 0.657, 0.614, 0.608, 0.596, 0.557, 0.472).
CONCLUSIONS
The gray level non-uniformity and complexity of lung ultrasound were the most correlated radiomics features with EVLWI monitored by PiCCO. The MLP model based on gray level non-uniformity and complexity of lung ultrasound can be used for semi-quantitative prediction of EVLWI in critically ill patients.
Humans
;
Extravascular Lung Water/diagnostic imaging*
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Critical Illness
;
Case-Control Studies
;
Bayes Theorem
;
China
;
Lung/diagnostic imaging*
10.Study of incubation period of infection with 2019-nCoV Omicron variant BA.5.1.3.
Wei Xia LI ; Li CAO ; De Hao ZHANG ; Chang CAI ; Li Ju HUANG ; Jian Nong ZHAO ; Yi NING
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2023;44(3):367-372
Objective: To study the incubation period of the infection with 2019-nCoV Omicron variant BA.5.1.3. Methods: Based on the epidemiological survey data of 315 COVID-19 cases and the characteristics of interval censored data structure, log-normal distribution and Gamma distribution were used to estimate the incubation. Bayes estimation was performed for the parameters of each distribution function using discrete time Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Results: The mean age of the 315 COVID-19 cases was (42.01±16.54) years, and men accounted for 30.16%. A total of 156 cases with mean age of (41.65±16.32) years reported the times when symptoms occurred. The log-normal distribution and Gamma distribution indicated that the M (Q1, Q3) of the incubation period from exposure to symptom onset was 2.53 (1.86, 3.44) days and 2.64 (1.91, 3.52) days, respectively, and the M (Q1, Q3) of the incubation period from exposure to the first positive nucleic acid detection was 2.45 (1.76, 3.40) days and 2.57 (1.81, 3.52) days, respectively. Conclusions: The incubation period by Bayes estimation based on log-normal distribution and Gamma distribution, respectively, was similar to each other, and the best distribution of incubation period was Gamma distribution, the difference between the incubation period from exposure to the first positive nucleic acid detection and the incubation period from exposure to symptom onset was small. The median of incubation period of infection caused by Omicron variant BA.5.1.3 was shorter than those of previous Omicron variants.
Male
;
Humans
;
Adult
;
Middle Aged
;
SARS-CoV-2
;
COVID-19
;
Bayes Theorem
;
Infectious Disease Incubation Period
;
Nucleic Acids

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