1.Chinese Materia Medica by Regulating Nrf2 Signaling Pathway in Prevention and Treatment of Ulcerative Colitis: A Review
Yasheng DENG ; Lanhua XI ; Yanping FAN ; Wenyue LI ; Tianwei LIANG ; Hui HUANG ; Shan LI ; Xian HUANG ; Chun YAO ; Guochu HUANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(1):321-330
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			Ulcerative colitis(UC) is a chronic non-specific inflammatory bowel disease characterized by inflammation and ulceration of the colonic mucosa and submucosa, and its complex pathogenesis involves immune abnormality, oxidative stress and other factors. The nuclear transcription factor E2-related factor 2(Nrf2), encoded by the Nfe212 gene, plays a central role in antioxidant responses. It not only activates various antioxidant response elements such as heme oxygenase-1(HO-1) and quinone oxidoreductase 1(NQO1), but also enhances the activity of glutathione-S-transferase(GST) and superoxide dismutase 1(SOD1), effectively eliminating reactive oxygen species(ROS) accumulated in the body, and mitigating oxidative stress-induced damage to intestinal mucosa. In addition, Nrf2 can reduce the release of inflammatory factors and infiltration of immune cells by regulating immune response, cell apoptosis and autophagy pathways, thereby alleviating intestinal inflammation and promoting the repair and regeneration of damaged mucosa. Based on this, this paper reviews the research progress of Chinese materia medica in the prevention and treatment of UC by modulating the Nrf2 signaling pathway. It deeply explores the physiological role of Nrf2, the molecular mechanism of activation, the protective effect in the pathological process of UC, and how active ingredients in Chinese materia medica regulate the Nrf2 signaling pathway through multiple pathways to exert their potential mechanisms. These studies have revealed in depth that Chinese materia medica can effectively combat oxidative stress by regulating the Nrf2 signaling pathway. It can also play a role in anti-inflammatory, promoting autophagy, inhibiting apoptosis, protecting the intestinal mucosal barrier, and promoting intestinal mucosal repair, providing new ideas and methods for the multi-faceted treatment of UC. 
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
2.4 Weeks of HIIT Modulates Metabolic Homeostasis of Hippocampal Pyruvate-lactate Axis in CUMS Rats Improving Their Depression-like Behavior
Yu-Mei HAN ; Chun-Hui BAO ; Zi-Wei ZHANG ; Jia-Ren LIANG ; Huan XIANG ; Jun-Sheng TIAN ; Shi ZHOU ; Shuang-Shuang WU
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2025;52(6):1468-1483
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			ObjectiveTo investigate the role of 4-week high-intensity interval training (HIIT) in modulating the metabolic homeostasis of the pyruvate-lactate axis in the hippocampus of rats with chronic unpredictable mild stress (CUMS) to improve their depressive-like behavior. MethodsForty-eight SPF-grade 8-week-old male SD rats were randomly divided into 4 groups: the normal quiet group (C), the CUMS quiet group (M), the normal exercise group (HC), and the CUMS exercise group (HM). The M and HM groups received 8 weeks of CUMS modeling, while the HC and HM groups were exposed to 4 weeks of HIIT starting from the 5th week (3 min (85%-90%) Smax+1 min (50%-55%) Smax, 3-5 cycles, Smax is the maximum movement speed). A lactate analyzer was used to detect the blood lactate concentration in the quiet state of rats in the HC and HM groups at week 4 and in the 0, 2, 4, 8, 12, and 24 h after exercise, as well as in the quiet state of rats in each group at week 8. Behavioral indexes such as sucrose preference rate, number of times of uprightness and number of traversing frames in the absenteeism experiment, and other behavioral indexes were used to assess the depressive-like behavior of the rats at week 4 and week 8. The rats were anesthetized on the next day after the behavioral test in week 8, and hippocampal tissues were taken for assay. LC-MS non-targeted metabolomics, target quantification, ELISA and Western blot were used to detect the changes in metabolite content, lactate and pyruvate concentration, the content of key metabolic enzymes in the pyruvate-lactate axis, and the protein expression levels of monocarboxylate transporters (MCTs). Results4-week HIIT intervention significantly increased the sucrose preference rate, the number of uprights and the number of traversed frames in the absent field experiment in CUMS rats; non-targeted metabolomics assay found that 21 metabolites were significantly changed in group M compared to group C, and 14 and 11 differential metabolites were significantly dialed back in the HC and HM groups, respectively, after the 4-week HIIT intervention; the quantitative results of the targeting showed that, compared to group C, lactate concentration in the hippocampal tissues of M group, compared with group C, lactate concentration in hippocampal tissue was significantly reduced and pyruvate concentration was significantly increased, and 4-week HIIT intervention significantly increased the concentration of lactate and pyruvate in hippocampal tissue of HM group; the trend of changes in blood lactate concentration was consistent with the change in lactate concentration in hippocampal tissue; compared with group C, the LDHB content of group M was significantly increased, the content of PKM2 and PDH, as well as the protein expression level of MCT2 and MCT4 were significantly reduced. The 4-week HIIT intervention upregulated the PKM2 and PDH content as well as the protein expression levels of MCT2 and MCT4 in the HM group. ConclusionThe 4-week HIIT intervention upregulated blood lactate concentration and PKM2 and PDH metabolizing enzymes in hippocampal tissues of CUMS rats, and upregulated the expression of MCT2 and MCT4 transport carrier proteins to promote central lactate uptake and utilization, which regulated metabolic homeostasis of the pyruvate-lactate axis and improved depressive-like behaviors. 
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
3.Four Weeks of HIIT Modulates Lactate-mediated Synaptic Plasticity to Improve Depressive-like Behavior in CUMS Rats
Yu-Mei HAN ; Zi-Wei ZHANG ; Jia-Ren LIANG ; Chun-Hui BAO ; Jun-Sheng TIAN ; Shi ZHOU ; Huan XIANG ; Yong-Hong YANG
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2025;52(6):1499-1510
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			ObjectiveThis study aimed to investigate the effects of 4-week high-intensity interval training (HIIT) on synaptic plasticity in the prefrontal cortex (PFC) of rats exposed to chronic unpredictable mild stress (CUMS), and to explore its potential mechanisms. MethodsA total of 48 male Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly divided into 4 groups: control (C), model (M), control plus HIIT (HC), and model plus HIIT (HM). Rats in groups M and HM underwent 8 weeks of CUMS to establish depression-like behaviors, while groups HC and HM received HIIT intervention beginning from the 5th week for 4 consecutive weeks. The HIIT protocol consisted of repeated intervals of 3 min at high speed (85%-90% maximal training speed, Smax) alternated with one minute at low speed (50%-55% Smax), with 3 to 5 sets per session, conducted 5 d per week. Behavioral assessments and tail-vein blood lactate levels were measured at the end of the 4th and 8th weeks. After the intervention, rat PFC tissues were collected for Golgi staining to analyze synaptic morphology. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) were employed to detect brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), monocarboxylate transporter 1 (MCT1), lactate, and glutamate levels in the PFC, as well as serotonin (5-HT) levels in serum. Additionally, Western blot analysis was conducted to quantify the expression of synaptic plasticity-related proteins, including c-Fos, activity-regulated cytoskeleton-associated protein (Arc), and N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor 1 (NMDAR1). ResultsCompared to the control group (C), the CUMS-exposed rats (group M) exhibited significant reductions in sucrose preference rates, number of grid crossings, frequency of upright postures, and entries into and duration spent in open arms of the elevated plus maze, indicating marked depressive-like behaviors. Additionally, the group M showed significantly reduced dendritic spine density in the PFC, along with elevated levels of c-Fos, Arc, NMDAR1 protein expression, and increased concentrations of lactate and glutamate. Conversely, BDNF and MCT1 contents in the PFC and 5-HT levels in serum were significantly decreased. Following HIIT intervention, rats in the group HM displayed considerable improvement in behavioral indicators compared with the group M, accompanied by significant elevations in PFC MCT1 and lactate concentrations. Furthermore, HIIT notably normalized the expression levels of c-Fos, Arc, NMDAR1, as well as glutamate and BDNF contents in the PFC. Synaptic spine density also exhibited significant recovery. ConclusionFour weeks of HIIT intervention may alleviate depressive-like behaviors in CUMS rats by increasing lactate levels and reducing glutamate concentration in the PFC, thereby downregulating the overexpression of NMDAR, attenuating excitotoxicity, and enhancing synaptic plasticity. 
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
4.Predictive Modeling of Symptomatic Intracranial Hemorrhage Following Endovascular Thrombectomy: Insights From the Nationwide TREAT-AIS Registry
Jia-Hung CHEN ; I-Chang SU ; Yueh-Hsun LU ; Yi-Chen HSIEH ; Chih-Hao CHEN ; Chun-Jen LIN ; Yu-Wei CHEN ; Kuan-Hung LIN ; Pi-Shan SUNG ; Chih-Wei TANG ; Hai-Jui CHU ; Chuan-Hsiu FU ; Chao-Liang CHOU ; Cheng-Yu WEI ; Shang-Yih YAN ; Po-Lin CHEN ; Hsu-Ling YEH ; Sheng-Feng SUNG ; Hon-Man LIU ; Ching-Huang LIN ; Meng LEE ; Sung-Chun TANG ; I-Hui LEE ; Lung CHAN ; Li-Ming LIEN ; Hung-Yi CHIOU ; Jiunn-Tay LEE ; Jiann-Shing JENG ;
Journal of Stroke 2025;27(1):85-94
		                        		
		                        			 Background:
		                        			and Purpose Symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH) following endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) is a severe complication associated with adverse functional outcomes and increased mortality rates. Currently, a reliable predictive model for sICH risk after EVT is lacking. 
		                        		
		                        			Methods:
		                        			This study used data from patients aged ≥20 years who underwent EVT for anterior circulation stroke from the nationwide Taiwan Registry of Endovascular Thrombectomy for Acute Ischemic Stroke (TREAT-AIS). A predictive model including factors associated with an increased risk of sICH after EVT was developed to differentiate between patients with and without sICH. This model was compared existing predictive models using nationwide registry data to evaluate its relative performance. 
		                        		
		                        			Results:
		                        			Of the 2,507 identified patients, 158 developed sICH after EVT. Factors such as diastolic blood pressure, Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score, platelet count, glucose level, collateral score, and successful reperfusion were associated with the risk of sICH after EVT. The TREAT-AIS score demonstrated acceptable predictive accuracy (area under the curve [AUC]=0.694), with higher scores being associated with an increased risk of sICH (odds ratio=2.01 per score increase, 95% confidence interval=1.64–2.45, P<0.001). The discriminatory capacity of the score was similar in patients with symptom onset beyond 6 hours (AUC=0.705). Compared to existing models, the TREAT-AIS score consistently exhibited superior predictive accuracy, although this difference was marginal. 
		                        		
		                        			Conclusions
		                        			The TREAT-AIS score outperformed existing models, and demonstrated an acceptable discriminatory capacity for distinguishing patients according to sICH risk levels. However, the differences between models were only marginal. Further research incorporating periprocedural and postprocedural factors is required to improve the predictive accuracy. 
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
5.Predictive Modeling of Symptomatic Intracranial Hemorrhage Following Endovascular Thrombectomy: Insights From the Nationwide TREAT-AIS Registry
Jia-Hung CHEN ; I-Chang SU ; Yueh-Hsun LU ; Yi-Chen HSIEH ; Chih-Hao CHEN ; Chun-Jen LIN ; Yu-Wei CHEN ; Kuan-Hung LIN ; Pi-Shan SUNG ; Chih-Wei TANG ; Hai-Jui CHU ; Chuan-Hsiu FU ; Chao-Liang CHOU ; Cheng-Yu WEI ; Shang-Yih YAN ; Po-Lin CHEN ; Hsu-Ling YEH ; Sheng-Feng SUNG ; Hon-Man LIU ; Ching-Huang LIN ; Meng LEE ; Sung-Chun TANG ; I-Hui LEE ; Lung CHAN ; Li-Ming LIEN ; Hung-Yi CHIOU ; Jiunn-Tay LEE ; Jiann-Shing JENG ;
Journal of Stroke 2025;27(1):85-94
		                        		
		                        			 Background:
		                        			and Purpose Symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH) following endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) is a severe complication associated with adverse functional outcomes and increased mortality rates. Currently, a reliable predictive model for sICH risk after EVT is lacking. 
		                        		
		                        			Methods:
		                        			This study used data from patients aged ≥20 years who underwent EVT for anterior circulation stroke from the nationwide Taiwan Registry of Endovascular Thrombectomy for Acute Ischemic Stroke (TREAT-AIS). A predictive model including factors associated with an increased risk of sICH after EVT was developed to differentiate between patients with and without sICH. This model was compared existing predictive models using nationwide registry data to evaluate its relative performance. 
		                        		
		                        			Results:
		                        			Of the 2,507 identified patients, 158 developed sICH after EVT. Factors such as diastolic blood pressure, Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score, platelet count, glucose level, collateral score, and successful reperfusion were associated with the risk of sICH after EVT. The TREAT-AIS score demonstrated acceptable predictive accuracy (area under the curve [AUC]=0.694), with higher scores being associated with an increased risk of sICH (odds ratio=2.01 per score increase, 95% confidence interval=1.64–2.45, P<0.001). The discriminatory capacity of the score was similar in patients with symptom onset beyond 6 hours (AUC=0.705). Compared to existing models, the TREAT-AIS score consistently exhibited superior predictive accuracy, although this difference was marginal. 
		                        		
		                        			Conclusions
		                        			The TREAT-AIS score outperformed existing models, and demonstrated an acceptable discriminatory capacity for distinguishing patients according to sICH risk levels. However, the differences between models were only marginal. Further research incorporating periprocedural and postprocedural factors is required to improve the predictive accuracy. 
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
6.Predictive Modeling of Symptomatic Intracranial Hemorrhage Following Endovascular Thrombectomy: Insights From the Nationwide TREAT-AIS Registry
Jia-Hung CHEN ; I-Chang SU ; Yueh-Hsun LU ; Yi-Chen HSIEH ; Chih-Hao CHEN ; Chun-Jen LIN ; Yu-Wei CHEN ; Kuan-Hung LIN ; Pi-Shan SUNG ; Chih-Wei TANG ; Hai-Jui CHU ; Chuan-Hsiu FU ; Chao-Liang CHOU ; Cheng-Yu WEI ; Shang-Yih YAN ; Po-Lin CHEN ; Hsu-Ling YEH ; Sheng-Feng SUNG ; Hon-Man LIU ; Ching-Huang LIN ; Meng LEE ; Sung-Chun TANG ; I-Hui LEE ; Lung CHAN ; Li-Ming LIEN ; Hung-Yi CHIOU ; Jiunn-Tay LEE ; Jiann-Shing JENG ;
Journal of Stroke 2025;27(1):85-94
		                        		
		                        			 Background:
		                        			and Purpose Symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH) following endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) is a severe complication associated with adverse functional outcomes and increased mortality rates. Currently, a reliable predictive model for sICH risk after EVT is lacking. 
		                        		
		                        			Methods:
		                        			This study used data from patients aged ≥20 years who underwent EVT for anterior circulation stroke from the nationwide Taiwan Registry of Endovascular Thrombectomy for Acute Ischemic Stroke (TREAT-AIS). A predictive model including factors associated with an increased risk of sICH after EVT was developed to differentiate between patients with and without sICH. This model was compared existing predictive models using nationwide registry data to evaluate its relative performance. 
		                        		
		                        			Results:
		                        			Of the 2,507 identified patients, 158 developed sICH after EVT. Factors such as diastolic blood pressure, Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score, platelet count, glucose level, collateral score, and successful reperfusion were associated with the risk of sICH after EVT. The TREAT-AIS score demonstrated acceptable predictive accuracy (area under the curve [AUC]=0.694), with higher scores being associated with an increased risk of sICH (odds ratio=2.01 per score increase, 95% confidence interval=1.64–2.45, P<0.001). The discriminatory capacity of the score was similar in patients with symptom onset beyond 6 hours (AUC=0.705). Compared to existing models, the TREAT-AIS score consistently exhibited superior predictive accuracy, although this difference was marginal. 
		                        		
		                        			Conclusions
		                        			The TREAT-AIS score outperformed existing models, and demonstrated an acceptable discriminatory capacity for distinguishing patients according to sICH risk levels. However, the differences between models were only marginal. Further research incorporating periprocedural and postprocedural factors is required to improve the predictive accuracy. 
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
7.Clinical Study on Yiqi Huatan Tongluo Prescription Combined with Drug-Coated Balloon in the Treatment of Coronary Heart Disease of Qi Deficiency and Phlegm Stasis Obstructing Collateral Type
Mei-Chun HUANG ; Yu-Peng LIANG ; Pei-Zhong LIU ; Sheng-Yun ZHANG ; Se PENG ; Chuang-Peng LI ; He-Zhen ZHANG ; Tian-Wei LAI ; Chang-Jiang AI ; Qing LIU ; Ai-Meng ZHANG ; Shao-Hui LI
Journal of Guangzhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2024;41(10):2656-2662
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			Objective To investigate the clinical efficacy and safety of Yiqi Huatan Tongluo Prescription(mainly composed of Fici Simplicissimae Radix,Notoginseng Radix et Rhizoma,Pinelliae Rhizoma Praeparatum,Poria,Nelumbinis Folium,and Glycyrrhizae Radix et Rhizoma,etc.)combined with drug-coated balloon(DCB)in the treatment of coronary heart disease(CHD)and to observe its effect on low-shear related serological indicators.Methods A total of 106 patients with CHD of qi deficiency and phlegm stasis obstructing collateral type who were scheduled to undergo percutaneous coronary intervention were randomly divided into a treatment group and a control group,with 53 cases in each group.The control group was treated with drug-eluting stent implantation,and the treatment group was treated with DCB.After the operation,the control group was given conventional antiplatelet aggregation drugs,and the treatment group was given oral administration of Yiqi Huatan Tongluo Prescription.The medication for the two groups lasted for 12 weeks.The changes in the serum levels of monocyte chemoattractant protein 1(MCP-1),interleukin 1 β(IL-1β)and vascular endothelial growth factor(VEGF)in the two groups were observed before and after treatment.Moreover,the traditional Chinese medicine(TCM)syndrome efficacy after treatment and the incidence of adverse events one year after operation were compared between the two groups.Results(1)After 12 weeks of treatment,the total effective rate for TCM syndrome efficacy of the treatment group was 88.68%(47/53),and that of the control group was 75.47%(40/53).The intergroup comparison(tested by chi-square test)showed that the TCM syndrome efficacy in the treatment group was significantly superior to that in the control group(P<0.05).(2)The analysis of indicators related to endothelial dysfunction in the blood flow with low shear stress showed that after treatment,the levels of serum MCP-1,IL-1βand VEGF in the control group presented no obvious changes(P>0.05),but the serum levels of MCP-1 and IL-1β in the treatment group were significantly lowered compared with those before treatment(P<0.05).The intergroup comparison showed that the decrease of serum MCP-1,IL-1β and VEGF levels in the treatment group was significantly superior to that in the control group(P<0.05).(3)The one-year follow-up after the operation showed that the total incidence of adverse events in the treatment group was 18.87%(10/53),and that in the control group was 20.75%(11/53).There was no significant difference between the two groups(P>0.05).Conclusion Yiqi Huatan Tongluo Prescription combined with DCB has definite action on the targets related to endothelial dysfunction in coronary blood flow with low shear stress,which is conducive to reducing inflammatory response,improving the symptoms of angina pectoris and enhancing clinical efficacy.The incidence of adverse events did not increase one year after operation,indicating good safety and effectiveness.
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
8.Development and validation of dynamic prediction models using vital signs time series data for fatal massive hemorrhage in trauma
Cheng-Yu GUO ; Ming-Hui GONG ; Qiao-Chu SHEN ; Hui HAN ; Ruo-Lin WANG ; Hong-Liang ZHANG ; Jun-Kang WANG ; Chun-Ping LI ; Tan-Shi LI
Medical Journal of Chinese People's Liberation Army 2024;49(6):629-635
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			Objective To establish a dynamic prediction model of fatal massive hemorrhage in trauma based on the vital signs time series data and machine learning algorithms.Methods Retrospectively analyze the vital signs time series data of 7522 patients with trauma in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-Ⅳ(MIMIC-Ⅳ)database from 2008 to 2019.According to the occurrence of posttraumatic fatal massive hemorrhage,the patients were divided into two groups:fatal massive hemorrhage group(n=283)and non-fatal massive hemorrhage group(n=7239).Six machine learning algorithms,including logistic regression(LR),support vector machine(SVM),random forests(RF),adaptive boosting(AdaBoost),gated recurrent unit(GRU),and GRU-D were used to develop a dynamic prediction models of fatal massive hemorrhage in trauma.The probability of fatal massive hemorrhage in the following 1,2,and 3 h was dynamically predicted.The performance of the models was evaluated by accuracy,sensitivity,specificity,positive predictive value,negative predictive value,Youden index,and area under receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC).The models were externally validated based on the trauma database of the Chinese PLA General Hospital.Results In the MIMIC-Ⅳ database,the set of dynamic prediction models based on the GRU-D algorithm was the best.The AUC for predicting fatal major bleeding in the next 1,2,and 3 h were 0.946±0.029,0.940±0.032,and 0.943±0.034,respectively,and there was no significant difference(P=0.905).In the trauma dataset,GRU-D model achieved the best external validation effect.The AUC for predicting fatal major bleeding in the next 1,2,and 3 h were 0.779±0.013,0.780±0.008,and 0.778±0.009,respectively,and there was no significant difference(P=0.181).This set of models was deployed in a public web calculator and hospital emergency department information system,which is convenient for the public and medical staff to use and validate the model.Conclusion A set of dynamic prediction models has been successfully developed and validated,which is greatly significant for the early diagnosis and dynamic prediction of fatal massive hemorrhage in trauma.
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
9.Prediction of Wind Turbine Lubricating Oil's Acid Value by Ordinary Least Square Method Based on Attenuated Total Reflectance-Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy Through Higher-Order Derivative Combined with Angular Metric
Chun-Hui GE ; Yan-Jun LIU ; Meng-Shi CHEN ; Ce YANG ; Pei-Pei LIANG ; Zhi-Xiang YAO ; Kai ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Analytical Chemistry 2024;52(9):1254-1265,中插1-中插4
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			To address the key challenges in multivariate statistical modeling,a higher-order derivative approach combined with vector space angle multiplicative error correction was proposed for establishing an acid value prediction ordinary least squares(OLS)regression model based on attenuated total reflectance-Fourier transform infrared(ATR-FTIR)spectroscopy.By using acid values measured by potentiometric titration as reference,ATR-FTIR spectroscopy was utilized for direct calibration and prediction of acid values on 96 kinds of lubricating oil samples from a wind turbine.Firstly,the simulated hyperbolic(SH)method was employed to obtain accurate fourth derivative spectrum,resolving overlapping bands and enhancing spectral selectivity.Then,from the calibration set(48 samples),informative spectral regions were identified based on correlation coefficients.Next,the sample with the highest acid value was selected as the reference and1/(1+tan(θ/2))was used as the metric relation of the spectrum to suppress the multiplicity error caused by factors such as the change of effective optical path in ATR-FTIR spectroscopy.After pretreatment of the spectrum by the method of fourth-order derivative combined with angular quantity,the number of variables decreased from 1737 to 8,and the matrix condition number decreased from 1.85×1015 to 56.34,which effectively eliminated the collinearity issue for OLS regression.Direct OLS modeling on spectral preprocessed data achieved a determination coefficient of 0.981 for 47 validation samples,with a relative error range of-8.38%-8.22%,outperforming the commonly used partial least squares(PLS)method(Determination coefficient of 0.865,relative error of-27.82%-22.38%).It was proved that effective data preprocessing significantly improved the prediction accuracy of the model.Furthermore,when the number of calibration set was compressed to 25 and the number of validation set was expanded to 70,the model retained 8 variables with a condition number of 42.60,the determination coefficient of validation set was 0.972,and the relative error ranged from-10.80%to 12.31%.Comparing with the PLS method(Determination coefficient of 0.724,relative error of-34.26%-53.84%),the improvement was more obvious,which showed that the method could still have high prediction accuracy even with fewer modeling samples as well as robustness against multiplicative error interference.
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
10.Development and validation of a dynamic prediction tool for post-endo-scopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography early biliary tract infection in patients with choledocholithiasis
Peng LI ; Chao LIANG ; Jia-Feng YAN ; Chun-Hui GAO ; Zhi-Jie MA ; Zhan-Tao XIE ; Ming-Jie SUN
Chinese Journal of Infection Control 2024;23(6):692-699
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			Objective To develop a prediction tool for post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography(ER-CP)early biliary tract infection(PEEBI)in patients with choledocholithiasis,and assist clinical decision-making be-fore ERCP and early personalized intervention after ERCP.Methods An observational bidirectional cohort study was adopted to select inpatients with choledocholithiasis who underwent ERCP in a hospital.Directed acyclic graph(DAGs)and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO)were used to predict PEEBI based on lo-gistic regression,and the models were compared and validated internally and externally.Results From January 1,2020 to September 30,2023,a total of 2 121 patients with choledocholithiasis underwent ERCP were enrolled,of whom 77(3.6%)developed PEEBI,mostly in the first 2 days after surgery(66.2%).The major influencing fac-tors for PEEBI were non-iatrogenic patient-related factors,namely diabetes mellitus(OR=2.43,95%CI:1.14-4.85),bile duct malignancy(OR=3.95,95%CI:1.74-8.31)and duodenal papillary diverticulum(OR=4.39,95%CI:1.86-9.52).Compared with the LASSO model,the DAGs model showed higher ability(3.0%)in com-prehensive discrimination(P=0.007),as well as good differentiation performance(D=0.133,P=0.894)and cal-ibration performance(x2=5.499,P=0.703)in external validation.Conclusion The DAGs model constructed in this study has good predictive performance.With the help of this tool,targeted early preventive measures in clinical practice can be taken to reduce the occurrence of PEEBI.
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
            
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