BACKGROUND: Ambient temperature may contribute to seasonality of mortality; in particular, a warming climate is likely to influence the seasonality of mortality. However, few studies have investigated seasonality of mortality under a warming climate. METHODS: Daily mean temperature, daily counts for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality, and annual data on prefecture-specific characteristics were collected for 47 prefectures in Japan between 1972 and 2015. A quasi-Poisson regression model was used to assess the seasonal variation of mortality with a focus on its amplitude, which was quantified as the ratio of mortality estimates between the peak and trough days (peak-to-trough ratio (PTR)). We quantified the contribution of temperature to seasonality by comparing PTR before and after temperature adjustment. Associations between annual mean temperature and annual estimates of the temperature-unadjusted PTR were examined using multilevel multivariate meta-regression models controlling for prefecture-specific characteristics. RESULTS: The temperature-unadjusted PTRs for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality were 1.28 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.27-1.30), 1.53 (95% CI: 1.50-1.55), and 1.46 (95% CI: 1.44-1.48), respectively; adjusting for temperature reduced these PTRs to 1.08 (95% CI: 1.08-1.10), 1.10 (95% CI: 1.08-1.11), and 1.35 (95% CI: 1.32-1.39), respectively. During the period of rising temperature (1.3 °C on average), decreases in the temperature-unadjusted PTRs were observed for all mortality causes except circulatory mortality. For each 1 °C increase in annual mean temperature, the temperature-unadjusted PTR for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality decreased by 0.98% (95% CI: 0.54-1.42), 1.39% (95% CI: 0.82-1.97), and 0.13% (95% CI: - 1.24 to 1.48), respectively. CONCLUSION Seasonality of mortality is driven partly by temperature, and its amplitude may be decreasing under a warming climate.
Cardiovascular Diseases/mortality* ; Cause of Death ; Climate Change/mortality* ; Cold Temperature/adverse effects* ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects* ; Humans ; Japan/epidemiology* ; Mortality/trends* ; Regression Analysis ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/mortality* ; Seasons ; Time

BACKGROUND: The solitary death rate in Japan is expected to continue increasing because of its growing super-aged society and the rapid growth of home care in the country. To accurately determine the actual status of solitary deaths, we used a novel analysis method of combining vital statistics and ambulatory care information in Yokohama City. METHODS: Data of persons who died at home in 2013 were obtained from death certificate notifications. We also obtained the emergency transportation records that matched the cases of these death certificate notifications. Then, we gathered information regarding age, gender, marital status, and cause of death for the matched cases. RESULTS: There were 1890 "suspected unnatural deaths," in which most solitary deaths could be included, among all citizens who died at home (n = 4847). We were able to match 1503 of these cases with emergency transportation records. These 1503 cases were divided into two groups, "solitary death" (n = 349) and "un-solitary death" (n = 1154) according to the postmortem interval until finding (PMI-f). Pearson's χ tests conducted for the two groups revealed that there were significant differences regarding the proportion of persons who were elderly, unmarried, male, and had a hepatic disease and senility. A logistic regression analysis also showed that an increased likelihood of a prolonged PMI-f was associated with males and an unmarried status with hepatic diseases. CONCLUSIONS Unmarried, male sex, and liver diseases are independent risks for solitary death in Yokohama City.
Age Distribution ; Cause of Death ; Death ; Death Certificates ; Diagnosis ; Emergency Medical Dispatch ; statistics & numerical data ; Female ; Humans ; Japan ; epidemiology ; Male ; Marital Status ; Mortality ; trends ; Risk Factors ; Sex Distribution

Objective: To analyze the trends on mortalities of all-cause and deaths caused by chronic and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) among Chinese labor force population during 2007 to 2016. Methods: Data on cause-of-death that collected from the National Mortality Surveillance System was used to analyze the age and area-related specific crude mortality rates, age-standardized mortality rates and component ratios of NCDs, among the Chinese labor force population, during 2007 to 2016. Trend of crude mortality rates and mortality component ratios of the three major diseases (infectious diseases, maternal and infant diseases, nutritional deficiency diseases; NCDs; injuries) were analyzed. Age-standardized mortality of cancer, COPD, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were also analyzed by gender. Age-standardized mortality was calculated based on the Year 2010 Population Census of China. Joinpoint regression model was used to obtain annual percentage change and 95%CI was set for assessing the trend. Results: In 2016, the age-standardized all-cause mortality rate was 217.23 per 100 000 among the Chinese labor force population, but decreased by -2.8% (95%CI: -3.8%- -1.7%) annually from 2007 to 2016. The gap between different gender and regions gradually narrowed. The proportion of deaths caused by NCDs increased annually by 0.8% (95%CI: 0.7%-0.9%). The age-standardized mortality rate of NCDs appeared as 171.89/100 000, among the Chinese labor force population in 2016, showing a downward trend by -2.4% (95%CI:-3.3% - -1.4%). However, in females, there appeared the greatest decrease, with an average annual change of -3.3% (95%CI:-4.0% - -2.5%). Diseases as cancer, COPD, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases all showed downward trends in the whole country, with an average range of -2.0% (95%CI: -2.6%--1.3%), -8.0% (95%CI: -8.9% - -7.1%), -1.5% (95%CI: -2.9% - -0.1%), -2.3% (95%CI: -2.8% - -1.8%) in a ten-year period, respectively. Conclusion: All-cause and age-standardized mortality rates caused by NCDs among Chinese labor force population were decreasing during 2007 to 2016. However, the constituent ratios appeared increasing, year by year. Close attention needs to be paid on NCDs which affecting the health of the labor force population in China.
Cause of Death/trends* ; China ; Chronic Disease/epidemiology* ; Employment ; Female ; Humans ; Infant ; Mortality/trends* ; Noncommunicable Diseases/mortality*

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Data on the epidemiology of alcoholic cirrhosis, especially in Asian countries, are limited. We compared the temporal evolution of patterns of alcoholic and nonalcoholic cirrhosis over the last decade. METHODS: We retrospectively examined the inpatient datasets of five referral centers during 2002 and 2011. The study included patients who were admitted due to specific complications of liver cirrhosis. We compared the causes of hospital admissions and in-hospital deaths between patients with alcoholic and nonalcoholic cirrhosis. RESULTS: Among the included 2,799 hospitalizations (2,165 patients), 1,496 (1,143 patients) were from 2002, and 1,303 (1,022 patients) were from 2011. Over time, there was a reduction in the rate of hepatic encephalopathy (HE) as a cause of hospitalization and an increase in the rate of hepatocellular carcinoma. Deaths that were attributable to HE or spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) significantly decreased, whereas those due to hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) significantly increased over time in patients with alcoholic cirrhosis. However, in patients with nonalcoholic cirrhosis, hepatic failure and HRS remained the principal causes of in-hospital death during both time periods. CONCLUSIONS: The major causes of in-hospital deaths have evolved from acute cirrhotic complications, including HE or SBP to HRS in alcoholic cirrhosis, whereas those have remained unchanged in nonalcoholic cirrhosis during the last decade.
Aged ; Asia/epidemiology ; Bacterial Infections/etiology/mortality ; Carcinoma, Hepatocellular/etiology/mortality ; Cause of Death ; Female ; Hepatic Encephalopathy/etiology/mortality ; Hepatorenal Syndrome/etiology/mortality ; Hospital Mortality/*trends ; Hospitalization/*trends ; Humans ; Liver Cirrhosis/*complications/mortality ; Liver Cirrhosis, Alcoholic/*complications/mortality ; Liver Neoplasms/etiology/mortality ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Peritonitis/microbiology/mortality ; Retrospective Studies ; Risk Factors ; Time Factors

Studies conducted to evaluate temporal trends of heat-related mortality have not considered the effects of heat waves; although it is known they can affect mortality and act as a modifying factor. After adjusting for long-term trends and seasonality, the effects of temperature on non-accidental deaths in Seoul and Busan (inland and coastal cities, respectively) were analyzed using a generalized additive model of Poisson distribution. We evaluated temporal trends of heat-related mortalities in four periods (1991-1995, 1996-2000, 2001-2005, and 2006-2012). The effects of temperature on mortality were evaluated according to the occurrence of a heat wave and results were compared in the two cities. The effect of temperature on mortality was the greatest in 1991-1995 in Seoul; no significant change was observed in Busan. When we stratified the study period by heat wave status, the risk increase in mortality was 15.9% per 1℃ during years with a heat wave in Seoul, which was much higher than 0.31% increase observed during years without a heat wave. On the other hand, Busan showed a linear relationship between temperature and mortality and no significant difference between years with or without a heat wave. Variations in the relationship between temperature and mortality could be misunderstood if heat waves are not considered. Furthermore, heterogeneity was found in the modifying effect of heat waves on heat-related mortality in inland and coastal cities. The findings of this study help understand relations between temperature and mortality.
Cause of Death/*trends ; Cities ; Humans ; Temperature

Forecasting cause-specific mortality can help estimate the future burden of diseases and provide a clue for preventing diseases. Our objective was to forecast the mortality for causes of death in the future (2013-2032) based on the past trends (1983-2012) in Korea. The death data consisted of 12 major causes of death from 1983 to 2012 and the population data consisted of the observed and estimated populations (1983-2032) in Korea. The modified age-period-cohort model with an R-based program, nordpred software, was used to forecast future mortality. Although the age-standardized rates for the world standard population for both sexes are expected to decrease from 2008-2012 to 2028-2032 (males: -31.4%, females: -32.3%), the crude rates are expected to increase (males: 46.3%, females: 33.4%). The total number of deaths is also estimated to increase (males: 52.7%, females: 41.9%). Additionally, the largest contribution to the overall change in deaths was the change in the age structures. Several causes of death are projected to increase in both sexes (cancer, suicide, heart diseases, pneumonia and Alzheimer’s disease), while others are projected to decrease (cerebrovascular diseases, liver diseases, diabetes mellitus, traffic accidents, chronic lower respiratory diseases, and pulmonary tuberculosis). Cancer is expected to be the highest cause of death for both the 2008-2012 and 2028-2032 time periods in Korea. To reduce the disease burden, projections of the future cause-specific mortality should be used as fundamental data for developing public health policies.
Age Factors ; Cause of Death/*trends ; Female ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Male ; Models, Theoretical ; Neoplasms/mortality ; Republic of Korea ; Sex Factors

The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of social engagement and patterns of change in social engagement over time on mortality in a large population, aged 45 years or older. Data from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging from 2006 and 2012 were assessed using longitudinal data analysis. We included 8,234 research subjects at baseline (2006). The primary analysis was based on Cox proportional hazards models to examine our hypothesis. The hazard ratio of all-cause mortality for the lowest level of social engagement was 1.841-times higher (P < 0.001) compared with the highest level of social engagement. Subgroup analysis results by gender showed a similar trend. A six-class linear solution fit the data best, and class 1 (the lowest level of social engagement class, 7.6% of the sample) was significantly related to the highest mortality (HR: 4.780, P < 0.001). Our results provide scientific insight on the effects of the specificity of the level of social engagement and changes in social engagement on all-cause mortality in current practice, which are important for all-cause mortality risk. Therefore, protection from all-cause mortality may depend on avoidance of constant low-levels of social engagement.
Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; *Aging ; Asian Continental Ancestry Group ; Cause of Death/*trends ; Female ; Humans ; Longitudinal Studies ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Republic of Korea ; *Social Support ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Surveys and Questionnaires

INTRODUCTIONThere is increased awareness of paediatric palliative care in Malaysia, but no local published data on home care services. We aimed to describe the paediatric experience at Hospis Malaysia, a community-based palliative care provider in Malaysia.

METHODSWe conducted a retrospective case note review of patients aged up to 21 years who were referred to Hospis Malaysia from 2009 to 2013.

RESULTSA total of 137 patients (92 male, 45 female) with a median age of 140 (3-250) months were included in this study. The majority (71.5%) had malignancies. At referral, 62 patients were still in hospital and 17 died prior to discharge. A total of 108 patients received home visits. At the first home visit, 89.8% of patients had at least one physical symptom. Pain was the most common (52.5%) symptom. Patients had various supportive devices: 39 were on feeding tubes, ten had tracheostomies, five were on bilevel positive airway pressure and ten had urinary catheters. 66 families discussed the preferred location of care at end-of-life. Among those who died, 78.9% died at home, as they preferred (p < 0.001). Regression analysis showed no statistically significant association between a home death and age, diagnosis and number of home visits. Bereavement follow-up occurred for 93.3% of families.

CONCLUSIONCommunity care referrals tend to occur late, with 25.5% of patients dying within two weeks of referral. At referral, patients often had untreated physical symptoms. The majority of families preferred and had a home death.

Cause of Death ; trends ; Child, Preschool ; Female ; Follow-Up Studies ; Home Care Services ; organization & administration ; Humans ; Infant ; Malaysia ; epidemiology ; Male ; Neoplasms ; mortality ; therapy ; Palliative Care ; organization & administration ; Retrospective Studies ; Survival Rate ; trends

This study aimed to analyze trends in the 10 leading causes of death in Korea from 1983 to 2012. Death rates were derived from the Korean Statistics Information Service database and age-adjusted to the 2010 population. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify the points when statistically significant changes occurred in the trends. Between 1983 and 2012, the age-standardized death rate (ASR) from all causes decreased by 61.6% for men and 51.2% for women. ASRs from malignant neoplasms, diabetes mellitus, and transport accidents increased initially before decreasing. ASRs from hypertensive diseases, heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases and diseases of the liver showed favorable trends (ASR % change: -94.4%, -53.8%, -76.0%, and -78.9% for men, and -77.1%, -36.5%, -67.8%, and -79.9% for women, respectively). ASRs from pneumonia decreased until the mid-1990s and thereafter increased. ASRs from intentional self-harm increased persistently since around 1990 (ASR % change: 122.0% for men and 217.4% for women). In conclusion, death rates from all causes in Korea decreased significantly in the last three decades except in the late 1990s. Despite the great strides made in the overall mortality, temporal trends varied widely by cause. Mortality trends for malignant neoplasms, diabetes mellitus, pneumonia and intentional self-harm were unfavorable.
Accidents, Traffic ; Adult ; Age Distribution ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Cardiovascular Diseases/*mortality ; Causality ; Cause of Death/*trends ; Comorbidity ; *Data Interpretation, Statistical ; Female ; Humans ; Liver Diseases/*mortality ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Neoplasms/*mortality ; Republic of Korea/epidemiology ; Respiration Disorders/*mortality ; Sex Distribution ; Young Adult

OBJECTIVES: Child mortality remains a critical problem even in developed countries due to low fertility. To plan effective interventions, investigation into the trends and causes of child mortality is necessary. Therefore, we analyzed these trends and causes of child deaths over the last 30 years in Korea. METHODS: Causes of death data were obtained from a nationwide vital registration managed by the Korean Statistical Information Service. The mortality rate among all children aged between one and four years and the causes of deaths were reviewed. Data from 1983-2012 and 1993-2012 were analyzed separately because the proportion of unspecified causes of death during 1983-1992 varied substantially from that during 1993-2012. RESULTS: The child (1-4 years) mortality rates substantially decreased during the past three decades. The trend analysis revealed that all the five major causes of death (infectious, neoplastic, neurologic, congenital, and external origins) have decreased significantly. However, the sex ratio of child mortality (boys to girls) slightly increased during the last 30 years. External causes of death remain the most frequent origin of child mortality, and the proportion of mortality due to child assault has significantly increased (from 1.02 in 1983 to 1.38 in 2012). CONCLUSIONS: In Korea, the major causes and rate of child mortality have changed and the sex ratio of child mortality has slightly increased since the early 1980s. Child mortality, especially due to preventable causes, requires public health intervention.
Cause of Death ; Child Mortality/*trends ; Child, Preschool ; Communicable Diseases/mortality ; Databases, Factual ; Female ; Humans ; Infant ; Male ; Neoplasms/mortality ; Nervous System Diseases/mortality ; Republic of Korea ; Sex Ratio ; Vital Statistics