2.Trends of reported human brucellosis cases in mainland China from 2007 to 2017: an exponential smoothing time series analysis.
Peng GUAN ; Wei WU ; Desheng HUANG
Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine 2018;23(1):23-23
BACKGROUND:
The main objective of this study was to describe the temporal distribution of monthly reported human brucellosis cases in mainland China and develop an appropriate time series model for short-term extrapolation forecast.
METHODS:
Surveillance data of the monthly reported human brucellosis cases occurring from April 1, 2007, to March 31, 2017, in mainland China were obtained. The spectrum analysis was first adopted to find the cyclic and seasonal features, the existence of the seasonality and trend was determined by exponential smoothing method and the seasonal-trend decomposition. The candidate models of exponential smoothing included the additive model and multiplicative model; R was selected as the indicator for the selection of candidate model, and the stability of the model was verified by adjusting the training data and test data set. Finally, the extrapolations of monthly incident human brucellosis cases in 2017 were made.
RESULTS:
From April 1, 2007, to March 31, 2017, a total of 435,108 cases of Brucellosis occurred in mainland China were reported, with an average of 3626 cases per month and a standard deviation of 1834 cases. The R of the exponential smoothing method that based on additive model increased steadily from 0.927 to 0.949 with the increase of the data volume. Ten of 12 actual values fell in the confidence interval of predicted value.
CONCLUSIONS
Human brucellosis cases peaked during the months from March to August in mainland China, with clear seasonality. The exponential smoothing based on the additive model method could be effectively used in the time series analysis of human brucellosis in China. Control methods, such as vaccination, quarantine, elimination of infected animals, and good hygiene within the production cycle, should be strengthened with paying more attention to the seasonality. Further research is warranted to explore the drivers behind the seasonality.
Brucellosis
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epidemiology
;
China
;
epidemiology
;
Forecasting
;
Humans
;
Incidence
;
Models, Statistical
;
Population Surveillance
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Public Health
;
statistics & numerical data
;
trends
;
Seasons
;
Time Factors
3.Characteristics on spatial and temporal distribution as well as the driving effect of meteorological factors on brucellosis in Datong city, Shanxi province, 2005-2015.
Z R YANG ; X LI ; Z J SHAO ; W T MA ; X J YUAN ; K J WU ; K LIU
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2018;39(9):1165-1171
Objective: To explore the spatio-temporal epidemic trends and related driving effects of meteorological factors on brucellosis in Datong city, Shanxi province, from 2005 to 2015. Methods: We collected the surveillance data on brucellosis and related meteorological data in Datong city from 2005 to 2015, to describe the epidemic characteristics of the disease. Quasi-Poisson distribution lag non-liner model (DLNM) was built to explore the driving effect of monthly meteorological data on the disease. Results: From 2005 to 2015, Datong city reported a total of 17 311 cases of brucellosis including one death, with the annual average incidence as 47.43 per 100 000 persons. A rising trend was seen during the study period. The monthly incidence of Brucellosis presented an obvious curve with a major peak from March to June, accounted for 48.40% of the total cases. The high incidence areas in the city gradually expanded from the northeast and southeast to the western areas. Results from the DLNM studies suggested that seasonality of brucellosis in Datong was significantly affected by metrological factors such as evaporation, rainfall and temperature. The peak of delayed effect appeared the highest when the monthly cumulative evaporation capacity was 140-260 mm and the monthly cumulative rainfall was 20-60 mm with lag less than 1 month or the monthly temperature was -13 ℃ with lag of 4-5 months. Conclusions: The incidence of human brucellosis in Datong city increased significantly from 2005 to 2015. Meteorological factors such as evaporation, rainfall, temperature all showed significant driving effects on the disease.
Brucellosis/epidemiology*
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China/epidemiology*
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Cities
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Climate
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Humans
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Incidence
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Meteorological Concepts
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Space-Time Clustering
;
Spatio-Temporal Analysis
;
Temperature
4.A Primary Investigation on Serum CTX-II Changes in Patients Infected with Brucellosis in Qinghai Plateau, China.
Zhi Jun ZHAO ; Qiang LI ; Xin ZHOU ; Li MA ; Li Qing XU ; Pei Zhen YANG ; Xian Ya MENG ; Hui Zhen YU ; Xiao Qing XU ; Jian Ying CAO
Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2016;29(3):229-232
Brucellosis is one of the most widespread zoonotic diseases, with the most frequent complication being osteoarticular changes. The aim of this study was to assess the changes of C-terminal telopeptide of type II collagen (CTX-II) in patients infected with brucellosis. A total of 84 brucellosis patients and 43 volunteers were selected and divided into brucellosis vs. control groups. Serum samples were subjected to serological tests for brucellosis, and CTX-II levels in all samples were measured simultaneously with ELISA. The results showed that serum CTX-II levels in human brucellosis were higher than those of healthy controls, without a statistically significant difference, but serum CTX-II levels in male patients were significantly higher than those of female patients (P<0.05). This finding could indicate the biological changes in the cartilage and bone in human brucellosis.
Adult
;
Brucellosis
;
blood
;
epidemiology
;
China
;
epidemiology
;
Collagen Type II
;
blood
;
genetics
;
Female
;
Gene Expression Regulation
;
immunology
;
Humans
;
Male
;
Middle Aged
;
Peptide Fragments
;
blood
;
genetics
;
Sex Factors
5.Brucellosis: a retrospective evaluation of 164 cases.
Esra KAZAK ; Halis AKALIN ; Emel YILMAZ ; Yasemin HEPER ; Reşit MISTIK ; Melda SINIRTAŞ ; Cüneyt ÖZAKIN ; Güher GÖRAL ; Safiye HELVACI
Singapore medical journal 2016;57(11):624-629
INTRODUCTIONBrucellosis is a public health problem that is prevalent in several developing countries.
METHODSThe clinical and laboratory characteristics of 164 cases of brucellosis in Bursa, Turkey, were retrospectively evaluated.
RESULTSThe ages of the 164 patients ranged from 15-85 years. All of the patients underwent the Rose Bengal test and 163 (99.4%) patients tested positive. 122 (74.4%) patients were diagnosed with acute brucellosis, 31 (18.9%) with subacute brucellosis and 11 (6.7%) with chronic brucellosis. Focal involvement was found in 101 (61.6%) patients. Although patients with focal involvement had a higher white blood cell count (p = 0.002), those without focal involvement had higher aspartate transaminase and alanine transaminase values, and lower platelet values (p = 0.005, 0.007 and 0.039, respectively). Spondylodiscitis was observed on imaging in 58 (66.7%) of the 87 patients who presented with back pain. Among the 118 patients who were examined within the first month of treatment, 79 (66.9%) responded to treatment. The relapse rate was 11.6% among all 164 patients.
CONCLUSIONBrucellosis should be considered as a differential diagnosis among patients who present with fever, and joint or back pain. Focal involvement should be investigated in the presence of leucocytosis, and subacute or chronic forms of brucellosis. To identify cases of spondylodiscitis, radiography should be performed in patients who present with back pain.
Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Back Pain ; diagnosis ; Brucellosis ; diagnosis ; epidemiology ; therapy ; Chronic Disease ; Diagnosis, Differential ; Female ; Fever ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Prevalence ; Retrospective Studies ; Risk Factors ; Turkey
6.A Case-Study of Implementation of Improved Strategies for Prevention of Laboratory-acquired Brucellosis.
Louisa J CASTRODALE ; Gregory A RACZNIAK ; Karen M RUDOLPH ; Lori CHIKOYAK ; Russell S COX ; Tricia L FRANKLIN ; Rita M TRAXLER ; Marta GUERRA
Safety and Health at Work 2015;6(4):353-356
BACKGROUND: In 2012, the Alaska Section of Epidemiology investigated personnel potentially exposed to a Brucella suis isolate as it transited through three laboratories. METHODS: We summarize the first implementation of the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2013 revised recommendations for monitoring such exposures: (1) risk classification; (2) antimicrobial postexposure prophylaxis; (3) serologic monitoring; and (4) symptom surveillance. RESULTS: Over 30 people were assessed for exposure and subsequently monitored for development of illness. No cases of laboratory-associated brucellosis occurred. Changes were made to gaps in laboratory biosafety practices that had been identified in the investigation. CONCLUSION: Achieving full compliance for the precise schedule of serologic monitoring was challenging and resource intensive for the laboratory performing testing. More refined exposure assessments could inform decision making for follow-up to maximize likelihood of detecting persons at risk while not overtaxing resources.
Alaska
;
Appointments and Schedules
;
Brucella suis
;
Brucellosis*
;
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (U.S.)
;
Classification
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Compliance
;
Decision Making
;
Epidemiology
;
Follow-Up Studies
;
Humans
7.Molecular typing of 12 Brucella strains isolated in Guizhou province in 2010-2013.
Yue WANG ; Hong CHEN ; Ying LIU ; Jingzhu ZHOU ; Shijun LI ; Email: ZJUMEDJUN@163.COM. ; Yan HANG ; Guangpeng TANG ; Dingming WANG ; Guichun CHEN
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2015;49(9):788-791
OBJECTIVETo identify and characterize the Brucella strains from Guizhou province in 2010-2013.
METHODSA total of 12 strains of Brucella suspicious bacteria were isolated in Guizhou province from 2010 to 2013. Four strains (GZLL3, GZLL4, GZLL11 and SH2) were isolated from goat blood samples and eight strains (SH4, GZZY, GZSQ, GZZA, BR13001, BR13004, BR13005 and BR13006) were isolated from blood samples of patient 12 Brucella suspicious strains were identified and characterized using conventional methods. Brucella genus specific gene BCSP31-based PCR (BCSP31-PCR) was used to identify the genus of Brucella and IS711 insert sequence-based PCR (AMOS-PCR) was applied to identify the species of Brucella strains. Goats and patients originated Brucella strains were comparatively analysed using Pulse-field Gel Electrophoresis (PFGE).
RESULTSBoth of conventional methods and PCR identified the 12 Brucella suspicious strains as B. melitensis biotype 3. BCSP31-PCR identification results showed that a specific DNA bands (223 bp) were detected in all the 12 strains and positive control samples with no DNA band in negative samples. AMOS-PCR amplified a 731 bp-DNA bands in all the 12 strains, with 731 bp, 498 bp and 275 bp in M5, S2 and A19 strains, respectively, and no DNA band was detected in the negative control samples. PFGE analysis showed that 12 Brucella isolates from patients and goats showed consistent PFGE patterns with the digestion of restriction enzyme Xba I.
CONCLUSIONThe epidemic species/type of Brucella in both human and animal in Guizhou province was B. melitensis biotype 3 and goat was the main animal source of infection of brucellosis in Guizhou province.
Animals ; Bacterial Typing Techniques ; Brucella ; classification ; Brucellosis ; epidemiology ; China ; epidemiology ; DNA, Bacterial ; Goats ; Humans ; Molecular Typing ; Polymerase Chain Reaction
8.An investigation of brucellosis in occupational population in Yuxi, China.
Yanhua ZHOU ; Shunwu ZUO ; Yingbo YAO ; Rusong YANG ; Shukun WANG
Chinese Journal of Industrial Hygiene and Occupational Diseases 2015;33(12):913-914
OBJECTIVETo investigate the epidemic status of brucellosis in the occupational population in Yuxi, China, and to develop effective prevention and control strategies.
METHODSSerological test was performed for 2320 employees involved in breeding, slaughtering, meat and dairy product processing, veterinary medicine, and sales in counties and districts where brucellosis was detected from 2008 to 2014 in Yuxi; pathogenic detection was performed for those in the occupational population who were suspected of brucellosis.
RESULTSThe results of serological test showed that the infection rate of brucellosis reached 3.32% , and 15 cases of brucellosis had clinical symptoms. The employees involved in breeding had the highest infection rate (4.89%) (χ2=25.75, P<0.05). From 2008 to 2014, the infection rate of brucellosis was 0.37%~4.93% and tended to increase; 67.85% of the occupational population did not take personal protective measures and had a significantly higher infection rate than those who took personal protective measures (4.45% vs 0.94%; χ2=19.42, P<0.05). Among the 161 patients suspected of brucellosis, 42 cases were diagnosed as current brucellosis confirmed by laboratory pathogenic detection.
CONCLUSIONThe infection rate of brucellosis and the number of newly diagnosed cases tend to increase in the occupational population in Yuxi, and the employees involved in breeding are the major infected population.
Animal Husbandry ; Brucellosis ; epidemiology ; China ; epidemiology ; Dairying ; Humans ; Meat ; Occupational Diseases ; epidemiology ; microbiology ; Veterinary Medicine
10.Epidemiology of brucellosis among cattle in Korea from 2001 to 2011.
Hachung YOON ; Oun Kyong MOON ; Soo Han LEE ; Won Chang LEE ; Moon HER ; Wooseog JEONG ; Suk Chan JUNG ; Do Soon KIM
Journal of Veterinary Science 2014;15(4):537-543
In the present study, the outbreak patterns of bovine brucellosis in Korea from 2000 to 2011 were analyzed to understand the epidemiological evolution of this disease in the country. A total of 85,521 brucella reactor animals were identified during 14,215 outbreaks over the 12-year study period. The number of bovine brucellosis cases increased after 2003 and peaked in 2006 before decreasing thereafter. The majority of the bovine brucellosis cases were Korean native cattle, Han Woo. The numbers of human brucellosis cases and cattle outbreaks increased and decreased in the same pattern. The correlation coefficient for human and bovine cases per year was 0.96 (95% confidence interval = 0.86~0.99; p < 10(-3)). The epidemiological characteristics of bovine brucellosis appeared to be affected by the intensity of eradication programs that mainly involved a test-and-slaughter policy. Findings from the present study were based on freely available statistics from web pages maintained by government agencies. This unlimited access to information demonstrates the usefulness of government statistics for continually monitoring the health of animal populations.
Animals
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Brucellosis/epidemiology/virology
;
Brucellosis, Bovine/*epidemiology/microbiology
;
Cattle
;
Disease Outbreaks/*veterinary
;
Humans
;
Republic of Korea

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