OBJECTIVE: To investigate the incidence trend and spatial clustering characteristics of scarlet fever in China from 2016 to 2020 to provide evidence for development of regional disease prevention and control strategies. METHODS: The incidence data of scarlet fever in 31 provinces and municipalities in mainland China from 2016 to 2020 were obtained from the Chinese Health Statistics Yearbook and the Public Health Science Data Center led by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.The three-dimensional spatial trend map of scarlet fever incidence in China was drawn using ArcGIS to determine the regional trend of scarlet fever incidence.GeoDa spatial autocorrelation analysis was used to explore the spatial aggregation of scarlet fever in China in recent years. RESULTS: From 2016 to 2020, a total of 310 816 cases of scarlet fever were reported in 31 provinces, municipalities directly under the central government and autonomous regions, with an average annual incidence of 4.48/100 000.The reported incidence decreased from 4.32/100 000 in 2016 to 1.18/100 000 in 2020(Z=103.47, P < 0.001).The incidence of scarlet fever in China showed an obvious regional clustering from 2016 to 2019(Moran's I>0, P < 0.05), but was randomly distributed in 2020(Moran's I>0, P=0.16).The incidence of scarlet fever showed a U-shaped distribution in eastern and western regions of China, and increased gradually from the southern to northern regions.Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Hebei and Gansu provinces had the High-high (H-H) clusters of scarlet fever in China. CONCLUSION Scarlet fever still has a high incidence in China with an obvious spatial clustering.For the northern regions of China with H-H clusters of scarlet fever, the allocation of health resources and public health education dynamics should be strengthened, and local scarlet fever prevention and control policies should be made to contain the hotspots of scarlet fever.
Humans ; Incidence ; Scarlet Fever/epidemiology* ; China/epidemiology* ; Spatial Analysis ; Cluster Analysis ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis

China/epidemiology* ; Environmental Monitoring ; Humans ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Tuberculosis/epidemiology*

Background: Since 1987, data regarding dental caries prevalence in the Philippines has been shown to be over 90%.

Objective: This study compared the trends of Filipino web searches regarding toothache and milk tea from 2017 to 2019 through spatio-temporal analyses.

Methods: Google Trends searches for the years 2017, 2018, and 2019 were done using three separate search queries using the parameters "toothache" (TA) and "milk tea" (MT) as search terms, Philippines as location, Health as category, and Web Search as database.

Results: The outcome showed a decreasing trend in searches for toothache and an increasing interest for milk tea web searches from 2017 to 2019. A multiple comparison test showed that searches for MT were significantly more than TA in 2017 (p<0.001), 2018 (p<0.001), and 2019 (p<0.001). Searches for TA during the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarter compared to the 1st quarter of the year, in Caraga, Eastern Visayas, Western Visayas and Zamboanga Peninsula compared to Manila, were found to be significantly high.

Conclusion: Filipinos' health-seeking behavior show decreasing interest towards TA and increasing for MT.

Key Words: spatio-temporal analysis, data mining, health-seeking behavior, dental care, Philippines

Objective: Based on the geographic information systems, we exploreed the spatiotemporal clustering and the development and evolution of COVID-19 epidemic at prefectural level in China from the time when the epidemic was discovered to the time when the lockdown ended in Wuhan. Methods: The information and data of the confirmed COVID-19 cases from December 8, 2019 to April 8, 2020 were collected from 367 prefectures in China for a spatial autocorrelation analysis with software GeoDa, and software ArcGIS was used to visualize the results. Software SatScan was used for spatiotemporal scanning analysis to visualize the hot-spot areas of the epidemic. Results: The incidence of new cases of COVID-19 had obvious global autocorrelation and the partial autocorrelation results showed that incidence of COVID-19 had different spatial distribution at different times from December 8, 2019 to March 4, 2020. There was no significant difference in global autocorrelation coefficient from March 5, 2020 to April 8, 2020. The statistical analysis of spatiotemporal scanning identified two kinds of spatiotemporal clustering areas, the first class clustering areas included 10 prefectures, mainly distributed in Hubei, from January 13 to February 25, 2020. The secondary class clustering areas included 142 prefectures, mainly distributed in provinces in the north and east of Hubei, from January 23 to February 1, 2020. Conclusions: There was a clear spatiotemporal correlation in the distribution of the outbreaks in the early phase of COVID-19 epidemic (December 8, 2019-March 4, 2020) in China. With the decrease of the case and effective prevention and control measures, the epidemics had no longer significant correlations among areas from March 5 to April 8. The study results showed relationship with time points of start and adjustment of emergency response at different degree in provinces. Furthermore, improving the early detection of new outbreaks and taking timely and effective prevention and control measures played an important role in blocking the transmission.
COVID-19/epidemiology* ; China/epidemiology* ; Communicable Disease Control ; Epidemics ; Humans ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis

Objectives: Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a widespread infectious disease that causes a significant disease burden on society. To achieve early intervention and to prevent outbreaks of disease, we propose a novel warning model that can accurately predict the incidence of HFMD. Methods: We propose a spatial-temporal graph convolutional network (STGCN) that combines spatial factors for surrounding cities with historical incidence over a certain time period to predict the future occurrence of HFMD in Guangdong and Shandong between 2011 and 2019. The 2011-2018 data served as the training and verification set, while data from 2019 served as the prediction set. Six important parameters were selected and verified in this model and the deviation was displayed by the root mean square error and the mean absolute error. Results: As the first application using a STGCN for disease forecasting, we succeeded in accurately predicting the incidence of HFMD over a 12-week period at the prefecture level, especially for cities of significant concern. Conclusions This model provides a novel approach for infectious disease prediction and may help health administrative departments implement effective control measures up to 3 months in advance, which may significantly reduce the morbidity associated with HFMD in the future.
China/epidemiology* ; Cities/epidemiology* ; Data Visualization ; Disease Outbreaks/statistics & numerical data* ; Forecasting/methods* ; Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease/prevention & control* ; Humans ; Incidence ; Neural Networks, Computer ; Reproducibility of Results ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Time Factors

Objective: To analyze the epidemiology and spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Shanxi province. Methods: The data of HFMD in Shanxi province from 2009 to 2020 were collected from notifiable disease management information system of Chinese information system for disease control and prevention and analyzed by descriptive epidemiology, Joinpoint regression, spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatio- temporal scanning analysis. Results: A total of 293 477 HFMD cases were reported in Shanxi province from 2009 to 2020, with an average annual incidence of 67.64/100 000 (293 477/433 867 454), severe disease rate of 5.36/100 000 (2 326/433 867 454), severe disease ratio of 0.79%(2 326/293 477), mortality of 0.015/100 000 (66/433 867 454), and fatality rate of 22.49/100 000 (66/293 477). The reported incidence rate, severe disease rate, mortality rate and fatality rate of HFMD showed decreasing trends. The main high-risk groups were scattered children and kindergarten children aged 0-5. The incidence of HFMD had obvious seasonal variation, with two peaks every year: the main peak was during June-July, the secondary peak was during September-October and the peak period is from April to November. A total of 13 942 laboratory cases were confirmed, with a diagnosis rate of 4.75% (13 942/293 477), including 4 438 (35.11%, 4 438/293 477) Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) positive cases, 4 609 (33.06%, 4 609/293 477) Coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16) positive cases, and 4 895 (31.83%, 4 895/293 477) other enterovirus positive cases. There was a spatial positive correlation (Moran's I ranged from 0.12 to 0.58, all P<0.05) and the spatial clustering was obvious. High-risk regions were mainly distributed in Taiyuan in central Shanxi province, Linfen and Yuncheng in southern Shanxi province, and Changzhi in southeastern Shanxi province. Spatial-temporal scanning analysis revealed 1 the most likely cluster and 8 secondary likely clusters, of which the most likely cluster (RR=2.65, LLR=22 387.42, P<0.001) located in Taiyuan and Jinzhong city, Shanxi province, including 12 counties (districts), and accumulated from April 1, 2009 to November 30, 2018. Conclusions: There was obvious spatial-temporal clustering of HFMD in Shanxi province, and the epidemic situation was in decline. The key areas were the districts in urban areas and the counties adjacent to it. Meanwhile, the monitoring and classification of other enterovirus types of HFMD should be strengthened.
Child ; Humans ; Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease/epidemiology* ; Spatial Analysis ; Enterovirus Infections ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Cluster Analysis

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the epidemic situation of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in Hunan Province, China, from 2008 to 2019, as well as its spatial autocorrelation characteristics and spatial-temporal clustering, and to provide a reference for the prevention and control of HFMD in Hunan Province. METHODS: Spatial autocorrelation and spatial-temporal clustering analyses were used to analyze the monitoring data of HFMD in Hunan Province from 2008 to 2019. RESULTS: The epidemic situation of HFMD in Hunan Province from 2008 to 2019 showed obvious seasonal distribution, with a low incidence rate in January to March and a high incidence rate in April to July. As for population distribution, children aged 0-5 years had the highest number of HFMD cases and accounted for 95.89% (1 460 391/1 522 910) of all cases, with a mean annual incidence rate of 2 197.784/100 000, and scattered children had the highest number of cases and accounted for 82.59% (1 257 739/1 522 910) of all cases. The global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the onset of HFMD in Hunan Province showed a significant clustering distribution, and the local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the high clustering areas of HFMD were mainly the districts and counties of Changsha, Zhuzhou, and Yueyang cities. Time-space scanning showed that clustering time was mainly April to July; the cases were clustered in the northeast of Hunan Province from 2008 to 2010 and in the central part of Hunan Province from 2011 to 2019. CONCLUSIONS The high incidence rate of HFMD is observed in April to July in Hunan Province. Children under 5 years of age are at a high risk of this disease. Spatial-temporal clustering is observed for the epidemic of HFMD, mainly clustered in the northeastern and central areas of Hunan Province. It is suggested that the results may be used as guidance to determine the key areas for HFMD prevention and control in Hunan Province and optimize the allocation of health resources.
Child ; Child, Preschool ; China/epidemiology* ; Cluster Analysis ; Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease/epidemiology* ; Humans ; Incidence ; Infant ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis

Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; China ; epidemiology ; Female ; Humans ; Incidence ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Tuberculosis ; epidemiology ; Young Adult

PURPOSE: We aim to examine nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) characteristics and survival outcomes in patients aged 70 years and older in the intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) era. MATERIALS AND METHODS: From 2006 to 2013, 126 non-metastatic NPC patients aged ≥ 70 years who were treated with IMRT +/‒ chemotherapy were included. Adult Comorbidity Evaluation 27 (ACE-27) was used to measure patient comorbidities. The overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS)were calculatedwith the Kaplan-Meier method, and differenceswere compared using the log-rank test. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to carry out multivariate analyses. RESULTS: For the entire group, only two patients (1.6%) presented stage I disease, and up to 84.1% patients had stage III-IVB disease. All patients had a comorbidity score of 0 in 24 (19.0%), 1 in 45 (35.7%), 2 in 42 (33.3%), and 3 in 15 (11.9%) patients. The main acute grade during radiotherapy was 3-4 adverse events consisting of mucositis (25.4%), bone marrow suppression (16.7%), and dermatitis (8.7%). After treatment, four patients (3.2%) developed temporal lobe injury. Five-year CSS and OS rates were 67.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 58.6% to 77.4%) and 54.0% (95% CI, 45.6% to 63.9%), respectively. Five-year OS was significantly higher for ACE-27 score 0-1 than ACE-27 score 2-3 (72.9% and 39.9%, respectively; p < 0.001). Multivariate analyses showed ACE-27 score 0-1 was significantly associated with superior OS (hazard ratio [HR], 3.02; 95% CI, 1.64 to 5.55; p < 0.001). In addition, the rate of OS was higher for stage I-III than that of stage IV, with borderline significance (HR, 1.67; 95% CI, 0.99 to 2.82; p=0.053). But no significant advantage was observed in OS when chemotherapy was used (p > 0.05). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest IMRT +/– chemotherapy has a manageable toxicity and provides an acceptable survival in patients aged ≥ 70 years with NPC. ACE-27 score was significantly associated with survival outcomes in this group population.
Adult ; Bone Marrow ; Comorbidity ; Dermatitis ; Drug Therapy ; Humans ; Methods ; Mucositis ; Multivariate Analysis ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Radiotherapy ; Radiotherapy, Intensity-Modulated* ; Temporal Lobe

To reveal the variation of polysaccharides and alcohol-soluble extractives of rhizomes Polygonatum cyrtonema from different producing areas,growing years,and harvesting seasons,25 wild samples from the main producing areas( provenances) of China and 6 artificial cultivated samples were collected and detected. The 6-year-old rhizomes of the artificial cultivation were gathered from Qingyuan,Zhejiang every 2 months during 2016 to 2017. Anthrone-sulfuric acid method and hot-dip method were used to determine the contents of polysaccharides and alcohol-soluble extractives respectively. The results showed that provenances,age sections and harvesting seasons affected the quality of Polygonati Rhizoma significantly. The content of polysaccharides from different provenances varied from 6. 96% to 20. 09%,and the content of extractives varied from 32. 08% to 78. 99%. The polysaccharides and extractives' content were the highest at 2-year-age sections,active constituents accumulation peaked in the third year,then decreased significantly with age increasing. The contents of polysaccharides and extractives accumulated were highest when aerial parts,up to 15. 39% and 78. 99% respectively. In summary,the activity and consistency fluctuated with producing areas. while such phenomenon indicated a huge potential of breeding. Additionally,the results showed that collecting Polygonati Rhizoma in February or August as herbal textual recorded were unreasonable,neither in spring or autumn according to the Chinese Pharmacopoeia( 2015 edition). Because these collecting periods didn't have the highest contents of polysaccharides and extractives. Therefore,based on phenological options,the rhizomes of P. cyrtonema should be harvested when the aboveground parts had just withered.
China ; Ethanol ; Plant Extracts ; chemistry ; Polygonatum ; chemistry ; Polysaccharides ; chemistry ; Rhizome ; chemistry ; Seasons ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis