Objective To explore the application of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model in predicting the number of reported hepatitis E cases in Yunnan Province，to use this model to predict the incidence trend of hepatitis E, and to provide reference for the scientific prevention and control of hepatitis E. Methods Monthly reported cases of hepatitis E in Yunnan Province from 2012 to 2021 were collected. The ARIMA model was established using SPSS 27.0, and the model was validated and parameters were optimized with data from January 2022 to December 2022. The optimal fitting model was used to predict the incidence of hepatitis E in 2023. Results Hepatitis E incidence in Yunnan Province showed a certain seasonal distribution, with most cases concentrated from March to August. All parameters of ARIMA(3,1,4)(1,1,1)₁₂ passed statistical tests. The Ljung-Box test showed statistic Q =10.050, P = 0.346, residual sequence was a white noise sequence, and goodness-of-fit index stationary R² was 0.591. The model extrapolation effect was verified with 2022 data, and MAPE was 14.747, indicating that the model extrapolation effect was effective. The number of hepatitis E cases in Yunnan Province in 2023 was expected to be 1,086. Conclusion The ARIMA (3,1,4)(1,1,1)₁₂ model shows good fitting performance for hepatitis E cases in Yunnan Province and can effectively predict short-term disease trends, providing a theoretical basis for formulating prevention and control measures for hepatitis E.

Objective:To detect serum levels of vitamin A (Vit A), vitamin D(Vit D)25-hydroxy vitamin D[25-(OH)D] and vitamin E(Vit E) in children aged 0-6 years in Tibetan Plateau of Garzi Prefecture, thus providing references for physical examinations and prevention of 4 key diseases (rickets, malnutrition anemia, pneumonia and diarrhea) in children in plateau areas by relevant government departments.Methods:A total of 2 122 children who participated in physical examination in 12 townships of Xiangcheng County and 14 townships of Daocheng County, Garzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, Sichuan Province from April 2017 to April 2019 with 0-6 years old were recruited for surveying physical measurements and collection of venous blood.Serum Vit A and Vit E levels were detected by high performance liquid chromatography.Serum levels of 25-(OH)D were detected by high performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry.The relationship between Vit A, Vit E and 25-(OH)D levels with the gender, age, seasonal change and altitude was analyzed.Results:The serum Vit A level, subclinical Vit A deficiency rate and marginal vitamin A deficiency rate were(1.05±0.27) μmol/L, 8.15%(173/2 122 cases) and 45.99%(976/2 122 cases), respectively in 2 122 children with 0-6 years old.There were significant differences in the serum Vit A level, the subclinical Vit A deficiency rate and the marginal vitamin A deficiency rate in children with different ages, seasons and altitudes (all P<0.05). The serum level of 25-(OH)D and 25-(OH)D deficiency rate insufficient rate were (24.65±6.45) ng/L, 6.03%(128/2 122 cases) and 16.59%(352/2 122 cases), respectively.There were significant differences in the serum level of 25-(OH)D, 25-(OH)D deficiency rate and 25-(OH)D insufficient rate in children with different ages and seasons (all P<0.05). The mean serum Vit E level, Vit E deficiency rate and Vit E insufficient rate were (7.81±1.74) mg/L, 2.78%(59/2 122 cases) and 29.59%(628/2 122 cases), respectively.There were significant differences in serum Vit E level, Vit E deficiency rate and Vit E insufficient rate in children with different ages and seasons (all P<0.05). The mean serum levels of Vit A and Vit D remained the lowest before the age of 1 year, and their deficiencies at this age were the most significant.The mean serum level of Vit E remained the lowest in >1-2 years old, and its deficiency and insufficient at this age were the most significant.Vit A, D and E levels were significantly affected by seasonal changes, which were significantly higher in the summer than in the spring, autumn and winter.In addition, Vit A and 25-(OH)D were significantly affected by the altitude, which were the lowest above 4 km altitude. Conclusions:The overall serum levels of Vit A, 25-(OH) D and E in children with 0-6 years old in Tibetan Plateau areas of Ganzi Prefecture are lower than those in plain areas.Vit A, 25-(OH) D and Vit E levels significantly differed in the age, season and altitude, which are related to the lack of local resources, insufficient maternal nutrition during pregnancy and insufficient intake after birth, as well as temperature and light caused by changes in local seasons and altitude.Therefore, it is necessary to make reasonable supplements during pregnancy to prevent vitamin deficiency.

Objective:To comprehensively evaluates the final quality of completed scientific research projects, and explore a set of evaluation methods for evaluating the quality of congener projects.Methods:Taking 31 provincial and ministerial research projects concluded completed between during 2016 to 2020 in a grade A tertiary Children′s Hospital of Jiangsu Province as the research objects, the evaluation index data were collected, the index weights were determined by factor analysis, and the quality of the research projects was comprehensively evaluated by combining TOPSIS method which derived from a grade A tertiary Children′s Hospital in Jiangsu Province, to collect the relevant evaluation index data, then determine the index weight by factor analysis and calculate sequences with TOPSIS, further evaluate the quality of these projects.Results:The top six projects are project 17, project 8, project 4, project 5, project 31 and project 7, all of which are provincial-level social development projects. The last six projects are project 19, project 6, project 14, project 11, project 28 and project 12, all of which are funded by Provincial Natural Science Foundation. The evaluation results are consistent with the actual completion quality of the projects.Conclusions:This method can evaluate the final quality of scientific research project scientifically and effectively. The evaluation results are more objective and reasonable by making full use of the original data information. It is a suitable method for the quality management of scientific research projects.

Objective: In this study we analyzed the genetic characteristics of echovirus 30 (E-30) VP1 gene sequences from Yunnan province isolated from viral meningitis (VM) cases in 2010-2013. Methods: RT-PCR and VP1 gene sequencing were done for 9 E-30 strains isolated from VM cases in 2010-2013. VP1 gene sequences of E-30 reference strains were downloaded from the GenBank and their nucleotide (nt) and amino acid (aa) diversities were calculated by MEGA 5.1 software, the phylogenetic tree was constructed and the genetic characteristics and molecular epidemiology were analyzed. Results: In 2010-2013, 9 strains of E-30 viruses were detected from 79 VM cases caused by echoviruses, accounting for 11.39%(9/79), the overall positive rate was 1.63%(9/553). Phylogenetic analysis revealed that E-30 strains can be divided into four genotypes (genotype A, B, C and D), and genotype D can be further divided into seven sub-genotypes. Nine Yunnan VM isolates were distributed in D7 sub-genotype, and can be further clustered into 3 branches: 5 strains isolated in 2010 were clustered in branch 1, it is evident that these viruses were responsible for an aseptic meningitis outbreak in Kunming in that year; one 2011 isolate, together with 2013 isolate and one isolate from healthy children in 2010 were clustered in branch 2, these two branches were Yunnan special branches, and two 2011 isolates had the highest homology with 2003 VM outbreaks′ strains isolated from Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, showing that these strains may have the same evolutionary sources. Conclusions Nine Yunnan VM isolates were distributed in D7 sub-genotype, and these strains have different evolutionary sources, showing that at different times E-30 viruses in the same sub-genotypes branch might prevail in different areas.

Objective To isolate and analyze the genetic characteristics of a new strain of entero-virus EV-C99 from a healthy child in Yunnan Province in 2016. Methods Virus isolation was performed ac-cording to the World Health Organization ( WHO) recommended procedures. Viral RNA was extracted from the supernatant of cell culture. RT-PCR and sequencing analysis of VP1 gene were used for virus identifica-tion. VP1 sequence was edited and stitched by Sequencher 5. 0 software. The edited sequence was BLAST searched in GenBank and the preliminary result indicated that it was an EV-C99 virus. Nucleotide (nt) and amino acid (aa) identities were calculated by MEGA5. 2 software. Serotype of the virus was identified ac-cording to the standard for enterovirus sequence typing. Results The virus could be amplified by 494/496 and 495/497 primer pairs and the edited sequence was about 1 200 bp. Result of the " BLAST" search showed that it was a new strain of enterovirus EV-C99. Comparative analysis with the prototype strain BAN00-10461 (GenBank ID:EF015008) by MEGA5. 2 software showed that the VP1 gene of that virus was 909 bp and the identities between them were 77. 05% in nt sequence and 90. 04% in aa sequence. According to the standard for enterovirus sequence typing,the virus was a new strain of enterovirus EV-C99 belonging to hu-man enterovirus species C (EV-C). Conclusion A new strain of enterovirus EV-C99 was isolated during an investigation of enteroviruses among healthy children in Yunnan Province in 2016. To our knowledge,this is the third report of EV-C99 in China. Phylogenetic analysis reveals that the EV-C99 Yunnan strain,Xinjiang strains and Shandong strains all belong to genotype B,but group into different clusters,indicating that Chinese strains have diverse genetic characteristics.

Objective To analyze the clinical features of infants infected by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) or human rhinovirus (HRV) in lower respiratory tract in Suzhou area based on the month age and the month of the year.Methods From January 2013 to December 2015,2 206 nasopharyngeal aspirates specimens were collected from the infants with lower respiratory tract infection.Direct immunofluorescence assay was performed to test RSV.Reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction(RT-PCR) method was used to test HRV.The medical history was collected and pulmonary function tests were performed in some infants who were infected with RSV and HRV.Results In 2 206 cases,total RSV positive rate was 19.90％ (439/2 206 cases) and simple RSV infection positive was detected in 399 cases.Total HRV positive rate was 14.14％ (312/2 206 cases),in which simple HRV infection positive was detected in 250 cases and the detection rate of RSV was significantly higher than that of HRV(x2 =25.88,P ＜0.05).The incidence rate of wheezing in simple RSV infection was 68.17％ (272/399 cases),which was significantly higher than that of simple HRV infection (42.80％,107/250 cases) (x2 =11.174,P ＜ 0.05).RSV infection was frequent from November to February of the next year in which the detection rate in December was highest with the proportion of 50.00％ (99/198 cases) while the rate in June was only 0.57％ (1/175 cases).The detection rate of HRV was 22.86％ (40/175 cases),20.47％ (35/171 cases) and 20.33％ (25/123 cases) in June,July and September respectively.The detection rate of HRV was lower during December to February of the next year.In January,the detection rate was only 4.68％ (11/235 cases),which was the lowest in the whole year.The detection rates of RSV were 33.33％ (4/12 cases),25.21％ (118/468 cases),23.46％ (84/358 cases) and 23.81％ (60/252 cases) in the age group of 28 d-1 month,＞ 1-2 month,＞ 2-3 month and ＞ 3-4 months respectively.Up to the age of 4 months old,the detection rate decreased gradually,and with the increase of age and the detection rate in ＞ 7-8 month group was only 10.96％ (16/146 cases).The detection rate of HRV was 0 (0/12)and 9.40％ (44/468 cases) in the age group of 28 d1 month,＞ 1-2 month,respectively.After 2 months age old,the detection rate fluctuation ranged from 13.22％ to 16.67％.The incidence rate of severe RSV infection was 12.30％ (54/439 cases) and the incidence rate of severe HRV infection was 5.13％ (16/312 cases).Increased respiratory rate was more common in patients with severe RSV infection while severe HRV infection in infants were accompanied by multiple lobar involvement.After RSV infection,the incidence rate of pulmonary function damage was 89.03％ (276/310 cases).After HRV infection,89.27％ (183/205 cases)of the infants suffered from pulmonary function damage.Both RSV and HRV infection might cause pulmonary function damage.Conclusions RSV and HRV are the major pathogens in infants of Suzhou areas.The incidence of RSV-induced wheezing is significantly higher than that of HRV.RSV is detected positive mainly in winter and early spring and the infants within 4-month old are susceptible population.HRV is detected positive mainly in June,July and September and the infants older than 2 months are susceptible population.The incidence of severe RSV infection is significantly higher than that of HRV.Severe RSV infection may cause increased respiratory rate and severe HRV infection mainly cause multiple lobar involvement.RSV and HRV infection may cause pulmonary function damage.

Objective To investigate the therapeutic effects of anti-B7-H3 blocking monoclonal antibody(McAb) in a murine model of neutrophilic asthma. Methods Twenty-four female BALB/c mice were randomly divided into four groups: PBS control group (group A), neutrophilic asthma group (group B),anti-B7-H3 McAb group (group C) and IgG isotype control group (group D). Those in group A were sensitized by injection of PBS and challenged with PBS through inhalation,while the other mice were sensi-tized by injection of ovalbumin (OVA) plus airway instillation of lipopolysaccharide(LPS),and then chal-lenged with OVA. Moreover,mice in group C and group D were respectively injected with anti-B7-H3 McAb and IgG isotype control in the induction period. Each mouse′s performance was observed. Samples of bron-choalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) and lung tissues were collected. Total and differential cell counts in BALF were determined by using microscope. Levels of cytokines including IFN-γ,IL-4,IL-6,IL-17,tumor nec-rosis factor-α (TNF-α) and granulocyte colony stimulating factor (G-CSF) in BALF were measured by ELISA. Lung sections were stained with hematoxylin and eosin (HE) and periodic acid-Schiff (PAS) to identify tissue inflammation and mucus production,respectively. Immunohistochemistry was used to measure the expression of B7-H3 in frozen mouse lung sections. Results Mice in group B and group D showed asth-matic symptoms such as breathlessness,dysphoria and incontinence after nebulization,while these symptoms in group C were alleviated due to anti-B7-H3 McAb treatment. No abnormalities were observed in group A. Compared with group A,the other three groups showed increased total cell count in BALF and higher per-centages of neutrophil and eosinophil(P<0.05). These three indicators in group C were lower than those in group B and group D (P<0.05). With regard to lung infiltration by Th1,Th2 and Th17 cells,the levels of IFN-γ,IL-4,IL-6,IL-17,TNF-α and G-CSF in BALF were increased in group B,group C and group D as compared with those in group A. Compared with group C,group B and group D showed higher levels of IL-6, TNF-α,IL-17 and G-CSF(P<0.05),but lower level of IL-4(P<0.05). No statistical difference in the level of IFN-γ was observed among group B, group C and group D. Histological staining of lung sections showed that no obvious inflammatory cells and mucus secretion was observed in group A. Massive infiltration of inflammatory cells and neutrophils and mucus hypersecretion were detected in group B and group D. Treatment with anti-B7-H3 McAb inhibited the accumulation of neutrophils and mucus hypersecretion in lung tissues of group C. Compared with group A, levels of B7-H3-positive cells were significantly increased in group B and group D. Anti-B7-H3-treated mice showed reduced levels of B7-H3-positive cells in lung tissues as compared with those in group B and group D(P<0.05). Conclusion Treatment with anti-B7-H3 bloc-king McAb in an early stage can relieve the asthmatic syndrome, reduce airway inflammatory cells, inhibit mucus production and down-regulate Th17 cell-related cytokine secretion,which helps to alleviate airway and systematic inflammation in mice with NA,and partially inhibit the development of NA.

Objective To investigate the enterovirus ( EV)-carrying status and the circulating se-rotypes in healthy children from inner and border areas of Yunnan Province in 2014 and 2015 and to analyze the genetic characteristics of echovirus 6 (ECHO6), ECHO25 and ECHO11 strains. Methods Stool sam-ples were collected from children less than 15 years old living in 6 to 7 counties of 3 inner prefectures/cities and 8 to 9 counties of border prefectures/cities. Altogether 921 samples were collected including 453 sam-ples in 2014 (213 samples in inner counties and 240 samples in border counties) and 468 samples in 2015 (195 samples in inner counties and 273 samples in border counties). Viruses were isolated from the stool samples and their serotypes were identified by gene sequencing. Results The numbers of EV strains isola-ted from the samples collected in inner counties and border counties in 2014 were 20 ( isolating rate:9.39%, 20/213) and 16 (isolating rate: 6. 67%, 16/240), respectively. The overall isolating rate for 2014 was 7. 95% (36/453). The predominant species was enterovirus B, accounting for 88. 89% of all iso-lated strains (32/36), followed by enterovirus A species (11. 11%, 4/36). No strains of enterovirus spe-cies C (including poliovirus) and D was detected in 2014. In total, 46 EV strains were isolated in 2015 with an overall isolating rate of 9. 83% (46/468), including 13 strains in inner counties (isolating rate:6. 67%, 13/195) and 33 strains in border counties (isolating rate:12. 09%, 33/273). Most of the strains were enterovirus B species, accounting for 78. 26% (36/46), followed by enterovirus C species (19. 57%, 9/46) and enterovirus A species (2. 17%, 1/46). Altogether 82 EV strains were isolated in 2014 and 2015 with an isolating rate of 8. 90% (82/921), of which 33 strains were isolated in inner counties (8. 09%, 33/408) and 49 strains were isolated in border counties (9. 55%, 49/513). Among the 82 EV strains, 9 strains were polioviruses (0. 98%, 9/921) and all of them were Sabin-like polioviruses. The rest of the strains were non-polio enterovirus (7. 93%, 73/921). Conclusion In 2014, the EV isolating rate in inner counties (9. 39%) was higher than that in border counties (6. 67%). However, the EV isolating rate in border counties (12. 09%) was higher than that in inner counties (6. 67%) in 2015. Enterovirus B was the predominant species in both 2014 and 2015. No wild type polioviruses and enterovirus D species were detec-ted. Polio-free status was maintained well in Yunnan Province.

Objective To investigate the virus-carrying rate of non-polio enteroviruses ( NPEV) in patients with acute flaccid paralysis ( AFP) in Yunnan province of China in 2015 and to analyze the genetic characteristics of enterovirus 71 (EV71) strains. Methods A total of 213 cases under 15 years old with AFP were reported by Center for Disease Control and Prevention ( CDC) of Yunnan Province of China. Virus isolation was conducted for all samples and the serotypes of isolated NPEV strains were identified by VP1 se-quencing. The isolation rates of NPEV in the past consecutive 5 years were analyzed by SPSS22. 0 software. Phylogenetic trees of NPEV and EV71 strains were constructed by MEGA6. 06 software based on neighbor-joining algorithm and Kimura 2-parameter substitution model and the reliability of the phylogenetic trees was determined by bootstrap analysis with 100 pseudo replicate datasets. Results Altogether, 23 NPEV strains were isolated from 213 AFP cases. Among the 23 strains, 7 strains belonged to EV-A group (2 serotypes, 6 strains of which were EV71 ) , 14 strains belonged to EV-B group ( 8 serotypes ) and the other 2 strains belonged to EV-C group. No NPEV strains of EV-D group were identified. Statistical analysis showed that no significant differences in the isolation rates were observed in the past 5 years ( P=0. 101 ) . Conclusion The isolation rate of NPEV in patients with AFP in Yunnan province in 2015 was similar to that of the previ-ous years. The EV71 strains of C4 subgenotype were the predominant strains circulating in Yunnan province.