1.Adolescent Smoking Addiction Diagnosis Based on TI-GNN
Xu-Wen WANG ; Da-Hua YU ; Ting XUE ; Xiao-Jiao LI ; Zhen-Zhen MAI ; Fang DONG ; Yu-Xin MA ; Juan WANG ; Kai YUAN
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2025;52(9):2393-2405
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			ObjectiveTobacco-related diseases remain one of the leading preventable public health challenges worldwide and are among the primary causes of premature death. In recent years, accumulating evidence has supported the classification of nicotine addiction as a chronic brain disease, profoundly affecting both brain structure and function. Despite the urgency, effective diagnostic methods for smoking addiction remain lacking, posing significant challenges for early intervention and treatment. To address this issue and gain deeper insights into the neural mechanisms underlying nicotine dependence, this study proposes a novel graph neural network framework, termed TI-GNN. This model leverages functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data to identify complex and subtle abnormalities in brain connectivity patterns associated with smoking addiction. MethodsThe study utilizes fMRI data to construct functional connectivity matrices that represent interaction patterns among brain regions. These matrices are interpreted as graphs, where brain regions are nodes and the strength of functional connectivity between them serves as edges. The proposed TI-GNN model integrates a Transformer module to effectively capture global interactions across the entire brain network, enabling a comprehensive understanding of high-level connectivity patterns. Additionally, a spatial attention mechanism is employed to selectively focus on informative inter-regional connections while filtering out irrelevant or noisy features. This design enhances the model’s ability to learn meaningful neural representations crucial for classification tasks. A key innovation of TI-GNN lies in its built-in causal interpretation module, which aims to infer directional and potentially causal relationships among brain regions. This not only improves predictive performance but also enhances model interpretability—an essential attribute for clinical applications. The identification of causal links provides valuable insights into the neuropathological basis of addiction and contributes to the development of biologically plausible and trustworthy diagnostic tools. ResultsExperimental results demonstrate that the TI-GNN model achieves superior classification performance on the smoking addiction dataset, outperforming several state-of-the-art baseline models. Specifically, TI-GNN attains an accuracy of 0.91, an F1-score of 0.91, and a Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) of 0.83, indicating strong robustness and reliability. Beyond performance metrics, TI-GNN identifies critical abnormal connectivity patterns in several brain regions implicated in addiction. Notably, it highlights dysregulations in the amygdala and the anterior cingulate cortex, consistent with prior clinical and neuroimaging findings. These regions are well known for their roles in emotional regulation, reward processing, and impulse control—functions that are frequently disrupted in nicotine dependence. ConclusionThe TI-GNN framework offers a powerful and interpretable tool for the objective diagnosis of smoking addiction. By integrating advanced graph learning techniques with causal inference capabilities, the model not only achieves high diagnostic accuracy but also elucidates the neurobiological underpinnings of addiction. The identification of specific abnormal brain networks and their causal interactions deepens our understanding of addiction pathophysiology and lays the groundwork for developing targeted intervention strategies and personalized treatment approaches in the future. 
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
2.Carnosic acid inhibits osteoclast differentiation by inhibiting mitochondrial activity
Haishan LI ; Yuheng WU ; Zixuan LIANG ; Shiyin ZHANG ; Zhen ZHANG ; Bin MAI ; Wei DENG ; Yongxian LI ; Yongchao TANG ; Shuncong ZHANG ; Kai YUAN
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2025;29(2):245-253
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			BACKGROUND:Carnosic acid,a bioactive compound found in rosemary,has been shown to reduce inflammation and reactive oxygen species(ROS).However,its mechanism of action in osteoclast differentiation remains unclear. OBJECTIVE:To investigate the effects of carnosic acid on osteoclast activation,ROS production,and mitochondrial function. METHODS:Primary bone marrow-derived macrophages from mice were extracted and cultured in vitro.Different concentrations of carnosic acid(0,10,15,20,25 and 30 μmol/L)were tested for their effects on bone marrow-derived macrophage proliferation and toxicity using the cell counting kit-8 cell viability assay to determine a safe concentration.Bone marrow-derived macrophages were cultured in graded concentrations and induced by receptor activator of nuclear factor-κB ligand for osteoclast differentiation for 5-7 days.The effects of carnosic acid on osteoclast differentiation and function were then observed through tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase staining,F-actin staining,H2DCFDA probe and mitochondrial ROS,and Mito-Tracker fluorescence detection.Western blot and RT-PCR assays were subsequently conducted to examine the effects of carnosic acid on the upstream and downstream proteins of the receptor activator of nuclear factor-κB ligand-induced MAPK signaling pathway. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:Tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase staining and F-actin staining showed that carnosic acid dose-dependently inhibited in vitro osteoclast differentiation and actin ring formation in the cell cytoskeleton,with the highest inhibitory effect observed in the high concentration group(30 μmol/L).Carnosic acid exhibited the most significant inhibitory effect during the early stages(days 1-3)of osteoclast differentiation compared to other intervention periods.Fluorescence imaging using the H2DCFDA probe,mitochondrial ROS,and Mito-Tracker demonstrated that carnosic acid inhibited cellular and mitochondrial ROS production while reducing mitochondrial membrane potential,thereby influencing mitochondrial function.The results of western blot and RT-PCR revealed that carnosic acid could suppress the expression of NFATc1,CTSK,MMP9,and C-fos proteins associated with osteoclast differentiation,and downregulate the expression of NFATc1,Atp6vod2,ACP5,CTSK,and C-fos genes related to osteoclast differentiation.Furthermore,carnosic acid enhanced the expression of antioxidant enzyme proteins and reduced the generation of ROS during the process of osteoclast differentiation.Overall,carnosic acid exerts its inhibitory effects on osteoclast differentiation by inhibiting the phosphorylation modification of the P38/ERK/JNK protein and activating the MAPK signaling pathway in bone marrow-derived macrophages.
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
3.Analysis of Chinese Medical Syndrome Features of Ischemic Stroke Based on Similarity of Symptoms Subgroup.
Xiao-Qing LIU ; Run-Shun ZHANG ; Xue-Zhong ZHOU ; Hong ZHOU ; Yu-Yao HE ; Shu HAN ; Jing ZHANG ; Zi-Xin SHU ; Xue-Bin ZHANG ; Jing-Hui JI ; Quan ZHONG ; Li-Li ZHANG ; Zi-Jun MOU ; Li-Yun HE ; Lun-Zhong ZHANG ; Jie YANG ; Yan-Jie HU ; Zheng-Guang CHEN ; Xiao-Zhen LI ; Yan TAN ; Zhan-Feng YAN ; Ke-Gang CAO ; Wei MENG ; He ZHAO ; Wei ZHANG ; Li-Qun ZHONG
Chinese journal of integrative medicine 2023;29(5):441-447
		                        		
		                        			OBJECTIVE:
		                        			To derive the Chinese medicine (CM) syndrome classification and subgroup syndrome characteristics of ischemic stroke patients.
		                        		
		                        			METHODS:
		                        			By extracting the CM clinical electronic medical records (EMRs) of 7,170 hospitalized patients with ischemic stroke from 2016 to 2018 at Weifang Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shandong Province, China, a patient similarity network (PSN) was constructed based on the symptomatic phenotype of the patients. Thereafter the efficient community detection method BGLL was used to identify subgroups of patients. Finally, subgroups with a large number of cases were selected to analyze the specific manifestations of clinical symptoms and CM syndromes in each subgroup.
		                        		
		                        			RESULTS:
		                        			Seven main subgroups of patients with specific symptom characteristics were identified, including M3, M2, M1, M5, M0, M29 and M4. M3 and M0 subgroups had prominent posterior circulatory symptoms, while M3 was associated with autonomic disorders, and M4 manifested as anxiety; M2 and M4 had motor and motor coordination disorders; M1 had sensory disorders; M5 had more obvious lung infections; M29 had a disorder of consciousness. The specificity of CM syndromes of each subgroup was as follows. M3, M2, M1, M0, M29 and M4 all had the same syndrome as wind phlegm pattern; M3 and M0 both showed hyperactivity of Gan (Liver) yang pattern; M2 and M29 had similar syndromes, which corresponded to intertwined phlegm and blood stasis pattern and phlegm-stasis obstructing meridians pattern, respectively. The manifestations of CM syndromes often appeared in a combination of 2 or more syndrome elements. The most common combination of these 7 subgroups was wind-phlegm. The 7 subgroups of CM syndrome elements were specifically manifested as pathogenic wind, pathogenic phlegm, and deficiency pathogens.
		                        		
		                        			CONCLUSIONS
		                        			There were 7 main symptom similarity-based subgroups in ischemic stroke patients, and their specific characteristics were obvious. The main syndromes were wind phlegm pattern and hyperactivity of Gan yang pattern.
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        			Humans
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Syndrome
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Ischemic Stroke
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Medicine, Chinese Traditional
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Liver
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Phenotype
		                        			
		                        		
		                        	
4.Forecasting the burden of disease from diabetes under the scenarios of specific risk factors control in China in 2030.
Yan Hong FU ; Ting Ling XU ; Zhen Zhen RAO ; Jiang Mei LIU ; Ruo Tong LI ; Min LIU ; Shi Cheng YU ; Mai Geng ZHOU ; Wen Lan DONG ; Guo Qing HU
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2023;44(4):581-586
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			Objective: To forecast mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes, and to simulate the impact of controlling risk factors by 2030 in China. Methods: We simulated the burden of disease from diabetes in six scenarios according to the development goals of risk factors control by the WHO and Chinese government. Based on the theory of comparative risk assessment and the estimates of the burden of disease for China from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015, we used the proportional change model to project the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes under different scenarios of risk factors control in 2030. Results: If the trends in exposures to risk factors from 1990 to 2015 continued. Mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes would increase to 32.57/100 000, 17.32/100 000, and 0.84% by 2030, respectively. During that time, mortality, age-standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality for males would all be higher than for females. If the goals of controlling risk factors were all achieved, the number of deaths from diabetes in 2030 would decrease by 62.10% compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends in exposure to risk factors, and the probability of premature mortality would drop to 0.29%. If only the exposure to a single risk factor were achieved by 2030, high fasting plasma glucose control would have the greatest impact on diabetes, resulting in a 56.00% reduction in deaths compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends, followed by high BMI (4.92%), smoking (0.65%), and low physical activity (0.53%). Conclusions: Risk factors control plays an important role in reducing the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes. We suggest taking comprehensive measures to control relevant risk factors for certain populations and regions, to achieve the goal of reducing the burden of disease from diabetes as expected.
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        			Male
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Female
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Humans
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Risk Factors
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology*
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Mortality, Premature
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Smoking
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Cost of Illness
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			China/epidemiology*
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Global Burden of Disease
		                        			
		                        		
		                        	
5.Scoping review of progress in cohort studies of autism spectrum disorder.
Yun Xiao WU ; Zhi Xia LI ; Xiao Zhen LYU ; Mai WANG ; Tian Yu HUANG ; Jian Hong CHENG ; Ruo gu MENG
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2023;44(5):837-844
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			Objective: To understand the status of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) cohort studies and explore the feasibility of constructing ASD disease-specific cohorts based on real-world data (RWD). Methods: ASD cohort studies published by December 2022 were collected by literature retrieval from major Chinese and English databases. And the characteristics of the cohort were summarized. Results: A total of 1 702 ASD cohort studies were included, and only 60 (3.53%) were from China. A total of 163 ASD-related cohorts were screened, of which 55.83% were birth cohorts, 28.22% were ASD-specific cohorts, and 4.91% were ASD high-risk cohorts. Most cohorts used RWD such as hospital registries or conducted community-based field surveys to obtain participant information and identified patients with ASD by scales or clinical diagnoses. The contents of the studies included ASD incidence and prognostic risk factors, ASD comorbidity patterns and the impact of ASD on self-health and their offspring's health. Conclusions: ASD cohort studies in developed countries have been in the advanced stage, while the Chinese studies are still in their infancy. RWD provides the data basis for ASD-specific cohort construction and offers new opportunities for research, but work such as case validation is still needed to ensure the scientific nature of cohort construction.
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        			Humans
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Autism Spectrum Disorder
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Cohort Studies
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Databases, Factual
		                        			
		                        		
		                        	
6.Effect of moxibustion with deqi on Aβ-receptor mediated transport and enzymatic degradation in hippocampus in rats with Alzheimer's disease.
Zhi-Mai LV ; Dan-Dan HUANG ; Ding-Yi XIE ; Rui-Zhen YUE ; Jin-Wei WANG ; Wei-Feng LUO ; Ri-Xin CHEN
Chinese Acupuncture & Moxibustion 2022;42(8):899-906
		                        		
		                        			OBJECTIVE:
		                        			To observe the clinical effect of moxibustion with deqi on Alzheimer's disease (AD) rats, and evaluate its effect on β-amyloid (Aβ) transport and enzymatic degradation proteins, to explore its molecular mechanism for improving cognitive function.
		                        		
		                        			METHODS:
		                        			Sixty SPF-grade male SD rats were randomly divided into a blank group (8 rats), a sham-operation group (8 rats) and a model establishment group (44 rats). The rats in the model establishment group were injected with Aβ1-42 at bilateral ventricles to establish AD model. Among the 38 rats with successful model establishment, 8 rats were randomly selected as the model group, and the remaining rats were treated with mild moxibustion at "Dazhui" (GV 14), once a day, 40 min each time, for 28 days. According to whether deqi appeared and the occurrence time of deqi, the rats were divided into a deqi group (12 rats), a delayed deqi group (10 rats) and a non-deqi group (8 rats). After the intervention, the Morris water maze test was applied to evaluate the cognitive function; the HE staining was applied to observe the brain morphology; the Western blot method was applied to measure the protein expression of Aβ and its receptor mediated transport [low-density lipoprotein receptor-related protein (LRP) 1, receptor for advanced glycation end products (RAGE), apolipoprotein E (ApoE)] and enzymatic degradation [neprilysin (NEP), insulin degrading enzyme (IDE), endothelin converting enzyme (ECE)-1 and angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) 2].
		                        		
		                        			RESULTS:
		                        			Compared with the sham-operation group, in the model group, the escape latency was prolonged (P<0.01), and the times of platform crossing and the ratio of platform quadrant to total time were reduced (P<0.01); the brain tissue was seriously damaged; the expression of hippocampal Aβ and RAGE was increased (P<0.01), and the expression of hippocampal LRP1, ApoE, NEP, IDE, ECE-1 and ACE2 was decreased (P<0.01). Compared with the model group, the escape latency was shortened in the deqi group (P<0.05, P<0.01), and the escape latency in the delayed deqi group and the non-deqi group was shortened from Day 2 to Day 5 (P<0.05, P<0.01), and the times of platform crossing and the ratio of platform quadrant to total time were increased in the deqi group and the delayed deqi group (P<0.01, P<0.05); the brain damage in each moxibustion group was reduced, which was smallest in the deqi group, followed by the delayed deqi group and the non-deqi group; the expression of Aβ and RAGE was decreased (P<0.01, P<0.05) and the expression of LRP1 and IDE was increased in each moxibustion group (P<0.01, P<0.05); the expression of ApoE was increased in the deqi group and the delayed deqi group (P<0.01, P<0.05); the expression of NEP was increased in deqi group (P<0.05), and the expression of ECE-1 and ACE2 was increased in the deqi group and the delayed deqi group (P<0.05). Compared with the delayed deqi group and the non-deqi group, the escape latency in the deqi group was shortened from Day 3 to Day 5 (P<0.05), and the times of platform crossing and the ratio of platform quadrant to total time were increased (P<0.05, P<0.01). Compared with the non-deqi group, the expression of Aβ was reduced (P<0.05), the expression of LRP1 and ApoE was increased in the deqi group (P<0.05). The expression of NEP in the deqi group was higher than that in the delayed deqi group and the non-deqi group (P<0.05).
		                        		
		                        			CONCLUSION
		                        			Compared with non-deqi, moxibustion with deqi could promote Aβ transport and degradation, thereby reducing Aβ level in the brain and improving cognitive function for AD rats.
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        			Alzheimer Disease/therapy*
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Amyloid beta-Peptides/genetics*
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme 2
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Animals
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Apolipoproteins E/metabolism*
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Hippocampus/metabolism*
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Male
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Moxibustion
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Rats
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Rats, Sprague-Dawley
		                        			
		                        		
		                        	
7.Prediction on the cardio-cerebrovascular death and probability of premature death caused by common risk factors in China in 2030.
Zhen Zhen RAO ; Yan Hong FU ; Ruo Tong LI ; Ting Ling XU ; Jiang Mei LIU ; Wen Lan DONG ; Shi Cheng YU ; Guo Qing HU ; Mai Geng ZHOU
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2022;56(5):567-573
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			Objective: Predictive models were used to evaluate the impact of common risk factors on the number of cardio-cerebrovascular deaths and the probability of premature death. Methods: Using the data for China estimated by the Global Burden of Disease study 2015 (GBD 2015), we calculated the population attribution fraction (PAF) of risk factors. The proportional change model was used to estimate the number of unattributable deaths by 2030, and to predict the number of deaths, mortality, standardized mortality and probability of premature death by 2030. Results: According to the natural change trend of risk factors from 1990 to 2015, the number of deaths and mortality would reach 6.12 million and 428.53/100 000 by 2030, with an increase of 59.92% and 52.87%. By 2030, the probability of premature death from cardio-cerebrovascular diseases among Chinese aged 30-70 years old would continue to decline, from 11.43% to 11.28% for men, and from 5.79% to 4.43% for women. If the goals of all included risk factors were reached by 2030, 2 289 200 cardio-cerebrovascular deaths would be avoided. If only the exposure to a single risk factor was achieved by 2030, blood pressure, total cholesterol, and fine particulate matter exposure were the three most important factors affecting cardio-cerebrovascular deaths, which would reduce 1 332 800, 609 100 and 306 800 deaths, respectively. Among the involved risk factors, the control of blood pressure would mostly decrease the number of deaths due to ischemic heart disease and hemorrhagic stroke, about 677 300 and 391 100 deaths, accordingly. Conclusion: The control of risk factors is of great significance in reducing deaths and probability of premature death due to cardio-cerebrovascular diseases. If the control targets of all risk factors could be achieved by 2030, the burden of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases would be reduced greatly.
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        			Adult
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Aged
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Blood Pressure
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Cerebrovascular Disorders/epidemiology*
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			China/epidemiology*
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Female
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Humans
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Male
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Middle Aged
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Mortality, Premature
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Risk Factors
		                        			
		                        		
		                        	
8.Prediction of disease burden caused by malignant cancer in the context of risk factor control in China, 2030.
Yan Hong FU ; Zhen Zhen RAO ; Ruo Tong LI ; Ting Ling XU ; Jiang Mei LIU ; Wen Lan DONG ; Mai Geng ZHOU ; Shi Cheng YU ; Guo Qing HU
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2022;43(1):37-43
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			Objective: To predict the number of deaths, standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality caused by malignant cancer in the context of risk factor control at different levels in China in 2030, and assess the possibility of achieving the target of reducing the probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer. Methods: According to the risk factor control standard for malignant cancer used both at home and abroad, the results of China from Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 were used to calculate the population attributable fraction of the risk factors. Based on the comparative risk assessment theory, the deaths of malignant cancer were classified as attributable deaths and un-attributable deaths. Proportional change model was used to predict risk factor exposure and un-attributable deaths of malignant cancer in the future, then the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer in 2030 was estimated. Data analyses were performed by using software R 3.6.1. Results: If the risk factor exposure level during 1990-2015 remains, the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer would increase to 3.62 million, 153.96/100 000 and 8.92% by 2030, respectively. If the risk factor exposure control level meets the requirement, the probability of premature mortality from cancer in people aged 30-70 years would drop to 7.57% by 2030. Conclusions: The control of risk factor exposure will play an important role in reducing deaths, standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer. But more efforts are needed to achieve the goals of Health China Action.
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        			Adult
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Aged
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			China/epidemiology*
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Cost of Illness
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Humans
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Middle Aged
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Mortality, Premature
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Neoplasms/epidemiology*
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Risk Factors
		                        			
		                        		
		                        	
9.Application of limiting antigen avidity enzyme immunoassay for estimating HIV-1 incidence in men who have sex with men.
Xi Jia TANG ; Lei Jing DUAN ; Wen Li LIANG ; Si CHENG ; Ting Li DONG ; Zhen XIE ; Kang Mai LIU ; Fei YU ; Zi Huang CHEN ; Guo Dong MI ; Liang LIANG ; Hong Jing YAN ; Lin CHEN ; Li LIN ; Dian Min KANG ; Xiao Bing FU ; Mao Feng QIU ; Zhen JIANG ; Jie XU ; Zun You WU
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2022;43(1):72-77
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			Objective: To estimate the incidence of HIV-1 infection in men who have sex with men (MSM) in key areas of China through HIV-1 limiting antigen avidity enzyme immunoassay (LAg-Avidity EIA), analyze the deviation from the actual results and identify influencing factors, and provided reference for improving the accuracy of estimation results. Methods: Based on the principle of the cohort randomized study design, 20 cities were selected in China based on population size and the number of HIV-positive MSM. The sample size was estimated to be 700 according to the HIV-1 infection rate in MSM. MSM mobile phone app. was used to establish a detection appointment and questionnaire system, and the baseline cross-sectional survey was conducted from April to November 2019. LAg-Avidity EIA was used to identify the recent infected samples. The incidence of HIV-1 infection was calculated and then adjusted based on the estimation formula designed by WHO. The influencing factors were identified by analyzing the sample collection and detection processes. Results: Among the 10 650 blood samples from the participants, 799 were HIV-positive in initial screening, in which 198 samples (24.78%) missed during confirmation test. Only 621 samples were received by the laboratory. After excluding misreported samples, 520 samples were qualified for testing. A total of 155 samples were eventually determined as recent infection through LAg-Avidity EIA; Based on the estimation formula , the incidence of HIV-1 infection in MSM in 20 cities was 4.06% (95%CI:3.27%-4.85%), it increased to 5.53% (95%CI: 4.45%-6.60%)after the adjusting for sample missing rate. When the sample missing rate and misreporting rate were both adjusted, the incidence of HIV-1 infection in the MSM increased to 5.66% (95%CI:4.67%-6.65%). The actual incidence of HIV-1 infection in MSM in the 20 cities might be between 4.06% and 5.66%. Conclusions: Sample missing and misreporting might cause the deviation of the estimation of HIV-1 infection incidence. It is important to ensure the sample source and the quality of sample collection and detection to reduce the deviation in the estimation of HIV-1 infection incidence.
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        			Cross-Sectional Studies
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			HIV Infections/epidemiology*
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			HIV-1
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Homosexuality, Male
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Humans
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Immunoenzyme Techniques
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Incidence
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Male
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Sexual and Gender Minorities
		                        			
		                        		
		                        	
10.Prediction on the burden of disease of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and simulation of the effectiveness of controlling risk factors in China by 2030.
Ruo Tong LI ; Zhen Zhen RAO ; Yan Hong FU ; Ting Ling XU ; Jiang Mei LIU ; Shi Cheng YU ; Mai Geng ZHOU ; Wen Lan DONG ; Guo Qing HU
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2022;43(2):201-206
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			Objective: To forecast the burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in China by 2030 and evaluate the effectiveness of controlling risk factors based on the predictive model. Methods: Based on the relationship between the death of COPD and exposure to risk factors and the theory of comparative risk assessment, we used the estimates of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD2015) for China, targets for controlling risk factors, and proportion change model to project the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality from chronic respiratory diseases by 2030 in different scenarios and to evaluate the impact of controlling the included risk factors to the disease burden of COPD in 2030. Results: If the trends in exposure to risk factors from 1990 to 2015 continued, the number of deaths and the mortality for COPD would be 1.06 million and 73.85 per 100 000 population in China by 2030, respectively, with an increase of 15.81% and 10.69% compared to those in 2015. Compared to 2015, the age-standardized mortality rate would decrease by 38.88%, and the premature mortality would reduce by 52.73% by 2030. If the smoking rate and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration separately achieve their control targets by 2030, there would be 0.34 and 0.27 million deaths that could be avoided compared to the predicted numbers based on the natural trends in exposure to risk factors and the probability of premature death would reduce to 0.59% and 0.52%, respectively. If the control targets of all included risk factors were achieved by 2030, a total of 0.53 million deaths would be averted, and the probability of premature death would decrease to 0.44%. Conclusions: If the exposures to risk factors continued as showed from 1990 to 2015, the number of deaths and mortality for COPD would increase by 2030 compared to 2015, and the standardized mortality and the probability of premature death would decrease significantly, which would achieve the targets of preventing and controlling COPD. If the exposure to the included risk factors all achieved the targets by 2030, the burden of COPD would be reduced, suggesting that the control of tobacco use and air pollution should be enhanced to prevent and control COPD.
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        			Air Pollutants/analysis*
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Air Pollution/prevention & control*
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			China/epidemiology*
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Cost of Illness
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Environmental Exposure
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Humans
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Particulate Matter/analysis*
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/prevention & control*
		                        			;
		                        		
		                        			Risk Factors
		                        			
		                        		
		                        	
            
Result Analysis
Print
Save
E-mail