ObjectiveTo investigate the role of silent information regulatory protein （SIRT6）/hypoxia-inducible factor-1α （HIF-1α） pathway in regulating the reprogramming of glucose metabolism in ulcerative colitis （UC） and the mechanism of intervention of Shaoyaotang. MethodsForty-eight c57bL/6 mice were randomly divided into a blank group， a model group， a Mesalazine group （0.42 g·kg^-1）， a Shaoyaotang group （31.08 g·kg^-1）， an inhibitor group （OSS-128167， 50 mg·kg^-1）， and an inhibitor + Shaoyaotang group （50 mg·kg^-1 OSS-128167 + 31.08 g·kg^-1 Shaoyaotang）. A UC model was established by the administration of 2.5% dextran sulfate sodium （DSS） solution for mice in other groups for 7 d， except for the blank group. The mice in each group were treated with saline， Mesalazine， Shaoyaotang， inhibitor， and inhibitor + Shaoyaotang， respectively， for 7 d. The mice were necropsied 24 h after the last administration of the drug. The blood was collected from the orbital region， and colon tissue was taken. Hematoxylin-eosin （HE） staining was used to observe the pathological changes in colon tissue. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay （ELISA） was employed to detect serum interleukin （IL）-10， IL-17， and IL-6 levels. A biochemical method was used to detect glucose and lactate dehydrogenase A （LDHA） levels. Immunohistochemistry （IHC） was employed to detect IL-22 and transforming growth factor-β₁ （TGF-β₁） levels in colon tissue， and Western blot and real-time fluorescence quantitative polymerase chain reaction （Real-time PCR） were used to detect relative protein and mRNA expressions of SIRT6， HIF-1α， and LDHA. ResultsCompared with those of the blank group， disease activity index （DAI） scores of mice in the model group and inhibitor group were significantly increased （P<0.01）. The length of colon tissue was significantly shortened， and colon tissue was congested and eroded. The pathohistological scores were significantly increased （P<0.01）. The levels of serum inflammatory factors IL-17 and IL-6 were significantly elevated， and the levels of IL-10 were significantly decreased （P<0.01）. The protein expressions of IL-22 and TGF-β₁ were significantly reduced in colon tissue （P<0.01）. The relative protein and mRNA expressions of SIRT6 were significantly decreased （P<0.01）， and the relative protein and mRNA expressions of HIF-1α and LDHA and the contents of glucose and lactate were significantly elevated （P<0.01）. The level of inflammation in the colon of the mice in the inhibitor group was more severe than that in the model group （P<0.01）. Compared with the model group， the Mesalazine group， the Shaoyaotang group， and the inhibitor + Shaoyaotang group showed reduced colonic injury， significant decrease in serum IL-17 and IL-6， significant increase in IL-10 （P<0.01）， significant increase in the protein expressions of IL-22 and TGF-β₁ in colon tissue （P<0.01）， significant increase in the protein expressions of SIRT6 and the relative mRNA expressions （P<0.01）， and significant reduction in the protein expressions of HIF-1α and LDHA， the relative mRNA expressions， and the contents of glucose and lactate （P<0.01）. Compared with those in the Shaoyaotang group， the serum IL-17 and IL-6 were significantly increased， and IL-10 was significantly decreased in the inhibitor + Shaoyaotang group （P<0.01）. The protein expressions of IL-22 and TGF-β₁ in colon tissue were significantly decreased （P<0.01）. The expressions of SIRT6 protein and the relative mRNA expressions were significantly decreased （P<0.01）. The protein expressions of HIF-1α and LDHA， the relative mRNA expressions， and the contents of glucose and lactate were significantly elevated （P<0.01）. However， the difference between the Shaoyaotang group and the Mesalazine group was not significant. ConclusionShaoyaotang can effectively treat DSS-induced mice with UC through the SIRT6/HIF-1α pathway， and its mechanism of action may be related to the regulation of the SIRT6/HIF-1α pathway and glucose metabolism reprogramming and the inhibition of glycolysis.

ObjectiveTo investigate the role of silent information regulatory protein （SIRT6）/hypoxia-inducible factor-1α （HIF-1α） pathway in regulating the reprogramming of glucose metabolism in ulcerative colitis （UC） and the mechanism of intervention of Shaoyaotang. MethodsForty-eight c57bL/6 mice were randomly divided into a blank group， a model group， a Mesalazine group （0.42 g·kg^-1）， a Shaoyaotang group （31.08 g·kg^-1）， an inhibitor group （OSS-128167， 50 mg·kg^-1）， and an inhibitor + Shaoyaotang group （50 mg·kg^-1 OSS-128167 + 31.08 g·kg^-1 Shaoyaotang）. A UC model was established by the administration of 2.5% dextran sulfate sodium （DSS） solution for mice in other groups for 7 d， except for the blank group. The mice in each group were treated with saline， Mesalazine， Shaoyaotang， inhibitor， and inhibitor + Shaoyaotang， respectively， for 7 d. The mice were necropsied 24 h after the last administration of the drug. The blood was collected from the orbital region， and colon tissue was taken. Hematoxylin-eosin （HE） staining was used to observe the pathological changes in colon tissue. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay （ELISA） was employed to detect serum interleukin （IL）-10， IL-17， and IL-6 levels. A biochemical method was used to detect glucose and lactate dehydrogenase A （LDHA） levels. Immunohistochemistry （IHC） was employed to detect IL-22 and transforming growth factor-β₁ （TGF-β₁） levels in colon tissue， and Western blot and real-time fluorescence quantitative polymerase chain reaction （Real-time PCR） were used to detect relative protein and mRNA expressions of SIRT6， HIF-1α， and LDHA. ResultsCompared with those of the blank group， disease activity index （DAI） scores of mice in the model group and inhibitor group were significantly increased （P<0.01）. The length of colon tissue was significantly shortened， and colon tissue was congested and eroded. The pathohistological scores were significantly increased （P<0.01）. The levels of serum inflammatory factors IL-17 and IL-6 were significantly elevated， and the levels of IL-10 were significantly decreased （P<0.01）. The protein expressions of IL-22 and TGF-β₁ were significantly reduced in colon tissue （P<0.01）. The relative protein and mRNA expressions of SIRT6 were significantly decreased （P<0.01）， and the relative protein and mRNA expressions of HIF-1α and LDHA and the contents of glucose and lactate were significantly elevated （P<0.01）. The level of inflammation in the colon of the mice in the inhibitor group was more severe than that in the model group （P<0.01）. Compared with the model group， the Mesalazine group， the Shaoyaotang group， and the inhibitor + Shaoyaotang group showed reduced colonic injury， significant decrease in serum IL-17 and IL-6， significant increase in IL-10 （P<0.01）， significant increase in the protein expressions of IL-22 and TGF-β₁ in colon tissue （P<0.01）， significant increase in the protein expressions of SIRT6 and the relative mRNA expressions （P<0.01）， and significant reduction in the protein expressions of HIF-1α and LDHA， the relative mRNA expressions， and the contents of glucose and lactate （P<0.01）. Compared with those in the Shaoyaotang group， the serum IL-17 and IL-6 were significantly increased， and IL-10 was significantly decreased in the inhibitor + Shaoyaotang group （P<0.01）. The protein expressions of IL-22 and TGF-β₁ in colon tissue were significantly decreased （P<0.01）. The expressions of SIRT6 protein and the relative mRNA expressions were significantly decreased （P<0.01）. The protein expressions of HIF-1α and LDHA， the relative mRNA expressions， and the contents of glucose and lactate were significantly elevated （P<0.01）. However， the difference between the Shaoyaotang group and the Mesalazine group was not significant. ConclusionShaoyaotang can effectively treat DSS-induced mice with UC through the SIRT6/HIF-1α pathway， and its mechanism of action may be related to the regulation of the SIRT6/HIF-1α pathway and glucose metabolism reprogramming and the inhibition of glycolysis.

ObjectiveTo investigate the effect of Shaoyaotang on T helper cell 17/regulatory T lymphocyte（Th17/Treg） cell balance in ulcerative colitis and decipher the intervention mechanism based on glucose metabolism reprogramming. MethodsThe mouse model of ulcerative colitis was established by the dextran sulfate sodium （DSS） method. Forty-eight C57BL/6 mice were randomly allocated into normal， model， Western drug control （mesalazine， 0.39 g·kg^-1·d^-1）， Shaoyaotang （15.54 g·kg^-1·d^-1）， inhibitor （2-deoxy-D-glucose， 2-DG， 100 mg·kg^-1·d^-1）， and inhibitor （2-DG， 100 mg·kg^-1·d^-1） + Shaoyaotang （15.54 g·kg^-1·d^-1） groups. Mice were administrated with the corresponding drugs by gavage for 7 days. The general conditions and the colon injury degree were observed 24 h after the last administration. The expression of interleukin （IL）-10 and IL-17 in the colon tissue was detected by immunohistochemical staining. Western blot and Real-time fluorescence quantitative polymerase chain reaction （Real-time PCR） were performed to determine the protein and mRNA levels， respectively， of hypoxia-inducing factor-1α （HIF-1α）， lactate dehydrogenase （LDHA）， and hexokinase 2 （HK2） in the colon tissue. Th17/Treg cell differentiation was detected by flow cytometry. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay was employed to measure the levels of lactic acid and glucose in the colon tissue and IL-10， IL-17， and IL-6 in the serum. ResultsCompared with the normal group， the model group showed decreases in body weight and disease activity index （DAI） （P<0.05）， elevations in levels of HIF-1α， LDHA， HK2， IL-17， IL-6， Th17 cells， lactic acid， and glucose in the colon tissue （P<0.05）， and declines in the levels of of IL-10 and Treg cells （P<0.05）. Compared with the model group， the drug administration groups showed increases in body weight and DAI （P<0.05）， declines in levels of HIF-1α， LDHA， HK2， IL-17， IL-6， Th17 cells， lactic acid， and glucose in the colon tissue （P<0.05）， and rises in levels of IL-10 and Treg cells （P<0.05）. Shaoyaotang+2-DG group had the most obvious effect. ConclusionShaoyaotang can relieve diarrhea and bloody stool in mice with ulcerative colitis by restoring the Th17/Treg cell balance via regulation of glucose metabolism reprogramming， thus playing a role in the treatment of ulcerative colitis.

ObjectiveTo explore the regulation of Shaoyaotang on glucose metabolism reprogramming of macrophages and the mechanism of this decoction in inhibiting macrophage polarization toward the M1 phenotype. MethodsHuman monocytic leukemia-1 （THP-1） cells were treated with 100 ng·L^-1 phorbol myristate acetate for induction of macrophages as the normal control group. The cells treated with 100 ng·L^-1 lipopolysaccharide combined with 20 ng·L^-1 interferon （IFN）-γ for induction of M1-type macrophages were taken as the M1 model group. M1-type macrophages were treated with the blank serum， Shaoyaotang-containing serum， 0.5 mol·L^-1 2-deoxy-D-glucose （2-DG）， and Shaoyaotang-containing serum + 2-DG， respectively. After intervention， the expression of CD86 and CD206 was examined by flow cytometry. The levels of interleukin （IL）-6， tumor necrosis factor （TNF）-α， IL-10， and transforming growth factor （TGF）-β were assessed by ELISA. Real-time PCR and Western blot were employed to determine the mRNA and protein levels， respectively， of hypoxia-inducible factor-1 alpha （HIF-1α）， glucose transporter 1 （GLUT1）， hexokinase 2 （HK2）， glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase （GAPDH）， and 6-phosphofructo-2-kinase/fructose-2，6-bisphosphatase 3 （PFKFB3）. ResultsCompared with that in the normal control group， the expression of CD86， the marker of M1-type macrophages， increased in the M1 model group and blank serum group （P<0.01）， which indicated that the M1 inflammatory model was established successfully. In addition， the M1 model group was observed with up-regulated mRNA and protein levels of proinflammatory cytokines IL-6 and TNF-α and glycolysis-related factors HIF-1α， GLUT1， HK2， GAPDH， and PFKFB3 （P<0.01）. Compared with the M1 model group， the Shaoyaotang-containing serum， 2-DG， and combined intervention groups showed decreased expression of CD86 （P<0.01）， down-regulated mRNA and protein levels of proinflammatory factors IL-6 and TNF-α and glycolysis-related factors HIF-1α， GLUT1， HK2， GAPDH， and PFKFB3 produced by M1-type macrophages （P<0.01）， increased expression of CD206 （marker of M2-type macrophages） （P<0.01）， and elevated levels of IL-10 and TGF-β produced by M2-type macrophages （P<0.01）. ConclusionShaoyaotang inhibits macrophage differentiation toward pro-inflammatory M1-type macrophages and promotes the differentiation toward anti-inflammatory M2-type macrophages by regulating glucose metabolism reprogramming. The evidence gives insights into new molecular mechanisms and targets for the treatment of ulcerative colitis with Shaoyaotang.

ObjectiveTo investigate the effect of Shaoyaotang on T helper cell 17/regulatory T lymphocyte（Th17/Treg） cell balance in ulcerative colitis and decipher the intervention mechanism based on glucose metabolism reprogramming. MethodsThe mouse model of ulcerative colitis was established by the dextran sulfate sodium （DSS） method. Forty-eight C57BL/6 mice were randomly allocated into normal， model， Western drug control （mesalazine， 0.39 g·kg^-1·d^-1）， Shaoyaotang （15.54 g·kg^-1·d^-1）， inhibitor （2-deoxy-D-glucose， 2-DG， 100 mg·kg^-1·d^-1）， and inhibitor （2-DG， 100 mg·kg^-1·d^-1） + Shaoyaotang （15.54 g·kg^-1·d^-1） groups. Mice were administrated with the corresponding drugs by gavage for 7 days. The general conditions and the colon injury degree were observed 24 h after the last administration. The expression of interleukin （IL）-10 and IL-17 in the colon tissue was detected by immunohistochemical staining. Western blot and Real-time fluorescence quantitative polymerase chain reaction （Real-time PCR） were performed to determine the protein and mRNA levels， respectively， of hypoxia-inducing factor-1α （HIF-1α）， lactate dehydrogenase （LDHA）， and hexokinase 2 （HK2） in the colon tissue. Th17/Treg cell differentiation was detected by flow cytometry. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay was employed to measure the levels of lactic acid and glucose in the colon tissue and IL-10， IL-17， and IL-6 in the serum. ResultsCompared with the normal group， the model group showed decreases in body weight and disease activity index （DAI） （P<0.05）， elevations in levels of HIF-1α， LDHA， HK2， IL-17， IL-6， Th17 cells， lactic acid， and glucose in the colon tissue （P<0.05）， and declines in the levels of of IL-10 and Treg cells （P<0.05）. Compared with the model group， the drug administration groups showed increases in body weight and DAI （P<0.05）， declines in levels of HIF-1α， LDHA， HK2， IL-17， IL-6， Th17 cells， lactic acid， and glucose in the colon tissue （P<0.05）， and rises in levels of IL-10 and Treg cells （P<0.05）. Shaoyaotang+2-DG group had the most obvious effect. ConclusionShaoyaotang can relieve diarrhea and bloody stool in mice with ulcerative colitis by restoring the Th17/Treg cell balance via regulation of glucose metabolism reprogramming， thus playing a role in the treatment of ulcerative colitis.

ObjectiveTo explore the regulation of Shaoyaotang on glucose metabolism reprogramming of macrophages and the mechanism of this decoction in inhibiting macrophage polarization toward the M1 phenotype. MethodsHuman monocytic leukemia-1 （THP-1） cells were treated with 100 ng·L^-1 phorbol myristate acetate for induction of macrophages as the normal control group. The cells treated with 100 ng·L^-1 lipopolysaccharide combined with 20 ng·L^-1 interferon （IFN）-γ for induction of M1-type macrophages were taken as the M1 model group. M1-type macrophages were treated with the blank serum， Shaoyaotang-containing serum， 0.5 mol·L^-1 2-deoxy-D-glucose （2-DG）， and Shaoyaotang-containing serum + 2-DG， respectively. After intervention， the expression of CD86 and CD206 was examined by flow cytometry. The levels of interleukin （IL）-6， tumor necrosis factor （TNF）-α， IL-10， and transforming growth factor （TGF）-β were assessed by ELISA. Real-time PCR and Western blot were employed to determine the mRNA and protein levels， respectively， of hypoxia-inducible factor-1 alpha （HIF-1α）， glucose transporter 1 （GLUT1）， hexokinase 2 （HK2）， glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase （GAPDH）， and 6-phosphofructo-2-kinase/fructose-2，6-bisphosphatase 3 （PFKFB3）. ResultsCompared with that in the normal control group， the expression of CD86， the marker of M1-type macrophages， increased in the M1 model group and blank serum group （P<0.01）， which indicated that the M1 inflammatory model was established successfully. In addition， the M1 model group was observed with up-regulated mRNA and protein levels of proinflammatory cytokines IL-6 and TNF-α and glycolysis-related factors HIF-1α， GLUT1， HK2， GAPDH， and PFKFB3 （P<0.01）. Compared with the M1 model group， the Shaoyaotang-containing serum， 2-DG， and combined intervention groups showed decreased expression of CD86 （P<0.01）， down-regulated mRNA and protein levels of proinflammatory factors IL-6 and TNF-α and glycolysis-related factors HIF-1α， GLUT1， HK2， GAPDH， and PFKFB3 produced by M1-type macrophages （P<0.01）， increased expression of CD206 （marker of M2-type macrophages） （P<0.01）， and elevated levels of IL-10 and TGF-β produced by M2-type macrophages （P<0.01）. ConclusionShaoyaotang inhibits macrophage differentiation toward pro-inflammatory M1-type macrophages and promotes the differentiation toward anti-inflammatory M2-type macrophages by regulating glucose metabolism reprogramming. The evidence gives insights into new molecular mechanisms and targets for the treatment of ulcerative colitis with Shaoyaotang.

Objective: To explore the application of photodynamic therapy (PDT) combined with orally administered retinoic acid in the treatment of proliferative verrucous leukoplakia (PVL) and provide a reference for clinical practice. Methods: A case of sequential treatment of PVL with PDT and orally administered retinoic acid was reported. The characteristics, diagnosis, treatment of PVL, and the application of PDT and retinoic acid in oral leukoplakia were retrospectively analyzed based on the literature. Results: After four PDT sessions, a majority of the oral lesions were eliminated in a patient clinically diagnosed with PVL, but the lesions recurred two months later. Subsequently, the patient was treated with retinoic acid at a dose of 10 mg, once a day, orally before bedtime. After continuous treatment for 2 weeks, the oral lesions were significantly reduced. The dose was then adjusted to 10 mg, twice a day, and the treatment was extended for 3 months until the lesions completely disappeared. Following this, a periodic regimen was adopted to continue the administration of retinoic acid at a dose of 10 mg, twice a day (3 weeks of treatment followed by 1 week of drug withdrawal as one cycle), for a total of 6 cycles. No recurrence was observed during the 5-month follow-up after drug withdrawal. A review of the literature indicates that PVL is an oral potentially malignant disorder (OPMD) characterized by multifocality, high recurrence rate, and high malignant transformation rate. Currently, there is no ideal treatment method for PVL. PDT is advantageous because of its low toxicity. Furthermore, it is strongly selective, minimally invasive, and patients experience no scarring. Thus, it has been recommended as the first-line therapy for PVL. However, due to the limitations of local application of photosensitizers in terms of effectiveness, targeting, and penetration depth, the efficacy of PDT in treating PVL remains uncertain. There are a few reports on the treatment of oral leukoplakia with retinoic acid given by oral, but no literature has reported the combination of PDT and retinoic acid given by oral for PVL. Conclusion The sequential combination of PDT and oral retinoic acid therapy is an effective treatment for PVL.

ObjectiveTo investigate the recurrence of ischemic stroke (IS) and to analyze the association between four indices of total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglycerides (TG) and the risk of IS recurrence by analyzing the follow-up data related to IS in the community-based natural population of Songjiang District, Shanghai, so as to provide a scientific basis for improving the prognosis of stroke patients in the community and controlling IS recurrence. MethodsA prospective follow-up study was conducted among the IS patients in the community-based cohort population, collecting data about patient’s age, gender, disease history, biochemical indicators, and etc. Cox regression model and restricted cubic spline model were used to analyze the relationship between different levels of plasma lipids and the recurrence of IS in these patients. ResultsA total of 1 368 patients with IS were included. The total follow-up duration was 7 171.46 person-years, with a median follow-up time of 6.24 years. There were 420 cases of IS recurrence, resulting in a cumulative recurrence rate of 30.70%. The results of multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the recurrence risk of IS was reduced when the baseline TC and LDL-C levels of IS patients were in the ranges of 4.65‒5.67 mmol·L^-1 and 2.52‒3.46 mmol·L^-1, respectively. The results of restricted cubic spline analysis showed a U-shaped relationship between baseline TC and LDL-C levels and the recurrence risk in IS patients. ConclusionThe cumulative recurrence rate of patients with IS in the community of Songjiang District in Shanghai is high, and the levels of TC and LDL-C at baseline survey are correlated with the recurrence of IS in these patients. It is suggested to pay more attention to the levels of LDL-C and TC in patients with IS, so as to improve the prognosis.

ObjectiveTo explore the effects of genetic variation of obesity-related biological pathways and gene-obesity interactions on the incidence of gastric cancer, so as to better understand the pathogenesis of gastric cancer and help identify high-risk populations for individualized prevention of gastric cancer. MethodsA case-control study based on the Shanghai Suburban Adult Cohort and Biobank study (SSACB) was conducted on the cases with gastric cancer. A total of 267 cases with gastric cancer and 267 healthy controls matched 1∶1 by age and gender using propensity score were included in the study. After genome-wide genotyping, quality control and imputation, 19 250 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) sites from 115 genes in 4 obesity-related biological pathways were extracted. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate the association between these SNP sites and the risk of gastric cancer, and false positive report probability (FPRP) was used for multiple test correction.Data from Biobank Japan (BBJ) and FinnGen public accessible databases were used to validate significant SNP sites. For validated sites, expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) analysis and differentially expressed genes analysis were further performed. Additive and multiplicative interactions were used to evaluate the gene-obesity interactions on the incidence of gastric cancer. Additive interaction evaluation indicators included relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI), attributable proportion due to interaction (AP) and synergy index (SI), while multiplicative interaction evaluation indicators include OR_GxE and P_inter. ResultsA total of 41 SNP sites were significantly associated with the onset of gastric cancer (P_adj<0.05, FPRP_0.1<0.1), among which 7 groups of haplotype blocks were formed. ACACB/ rs2268401 [SSACB: P=0.005, BBJ: P=0.049], HRAS/ rs12785860 (SSACB: P<0.001, FinnGen: P=0.045), and PTPN1/ rs6095985 (SSACB: P<0.001, FinnGen: P=0.023) were significantly associated with the risk of gastric cancer after validation in different populations. Among which, the G allele of HRAS/ rs12785860 was correlated with the downregulation of HRAS mRNA expression (P<0.001), and the expression level of HRAS in gastric cancer tissues was higher than that in adjacent normal tissues (P<0.001). Additionaly, JAK1/rs11208559 showed a positive additive interaction with waist circumstance (WC) on the risk of gastric cancer [RERI=2.29(0.06~4.53), AP=0.57(0.23~0.90), SI=4.03(2.20~5.87)]. ConclusionObesity-related biological pathway SNP sites and their haplotypes are associated with the risk of gastric cancer, suggesting that genetic variations in obesity pathways may affect gastric cancer. The HRAS/ rs12785860 is significantly associated with downregulation of HRAS gene expression, which may serve as a potential genetic marker for gastric cancer. JAK1/rs11208559 interacts with obesity additively on the risk of gastric cancer. Individuals with GC+CC genotypes and pre-central or central obesity have an increased risk of gastric cancer, providing clues and evidences for individualized prevention of gastric cancer.

ObjectiveTo develop a nomogram-based risk prediction model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) incidence among the community-dwelling population aged 40 years old and above, so as to provide targeted references for the screening and prevention of COPD. MethodsBased on a natural population cohort in suburban Shanghai, a total of 3 381 randomly selected participants aged ≥40 years underwent pulmonary function tests between July and October 2021. Cox stepwise regression analysis was used to develop overall and gender-specific risk prediction models, along with the construction of corresponding risk nomograms. Model predictive performance was evaluated using the C-indice, area under the curve (AUC) values, and Brier score. Stability was assessed through 10-fold cross-validation and sensitivity analysis. ResultsA total of 3 019 participants were included, with a median follow-up duration of 4.6 years. The COPD incidence density was 17.22 per 1 000 person-years, significantly higher in males (32.04/1 000 person-years) than that in females (7.38/1 000 person-years) (P<0.001). The overall risk prediction model included the variables such as gender, age, education level, BMI, smoking, passive smoking, and respiratory comorbidities. The male-specific model incorporated the variables such as age, BMI, respiratory comorbidities, and smoking, while the female-specific model included age, marital status, respiratory comorbidities, and pulmonary tuberculosis history. The C-indices for the overall, male-specific, and female-specific models were 0.829, 0.749, and 0.807, respectively. The 5-year AUC values were 0.785, 0.658, and 0.811, with Brier scores of 0.103, 0.176, and 0.059, respectively. Both 10-fold cross-validated C-indices and sensitivity analysis (excluding participants with a follow-up duration of <6 months) yielded C-indices were above 0.740. ConclusionThis study developed concise and practical overall and gender-specific COPD risk prediction models and corresponding nomograms. The models demonstrated robust performance in predicting COPD incidence, providing a valuable reference for identifying high-risk populations and formulating targeted screening and personalized management strategies.