Objective To construct an optimal prediction model of chickenpox in Urumqi, and to provide reference for formulating the prevention and control strategies of chickenpox. Methods The multivariate autoregressive moving average model (ARIMAX) and random forest model (RF) were established based on the monthly incidence of chickenpox in Urumqi from 2014 to 2018, and the monthly incidence of chickenpox in 2019 was used to test the models and evaluate their prediction effect. The prediction performance of the two models was compared, and the best model was selected to predict the incidence of chickenpox in Urumqi. Results The incidence of chickenpox in Urumqi showed a regular bimodal distribution with obvious seasonality, and it showed a slow upward trend from July 2014 to December 2019. The fitting model was ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,1)₁₂, the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of ARIMAX model training set were 1.29 and 0.95, respectively, and the RMSE and MAE of the test set were 1.88 and 1.44, respectively. The training set RMSE and MAE of RF model were 1.56 and 1.56, respectively, and the test set RMSE and MAE were 4.83 and 3.96, respectively. Conclusion The performance of ARIMAX model is better than that of RF model, which can better predict the incidence trend of chickenpox in Urumqi. It is necessary to optimize the prediction model according to the actual situation and provide scientific guidance for the prevention and control of chickenpox.

Objective To explore the application of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model in the prediction of brucellosis in Urumqi, and to use this model to predict the incidence trend of brucellosis in Urumqi. Methods The monthly incidence data of brucellosis in Urumqi from January 2010 to December 2021 were selected to construct the ARIMA prediction model. The prediction effect of the model was evaluated by mean standard deviation (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). The monthly incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi in 2022 was predicted by the constructed model. Results The incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi had obvious seasonal distribution, and the cases were concentrated from May to July. ARIMA(1,1,1)(1,0,1)12 was the optimal prediction model, with RMSE=0.883 and MAE=5.24. The monthly incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi in 2022 was predicted to be 7, 4, 4, 6, 9, 9, 10, 7, 7, 5, 5, and 5 cases, respectively. Conclusion ARIMA model can well fit and predict the monthly incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi and provide a basis for the monitoring and prevention of brucellosis.

Objective This study aims to analyze the epidemiological and etiological characteristics of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in Urumqi City, Xinjiang from 2014 to 2022, in order to provide theoretical basis for the prevention and control of HFMD in Urumqi City. Methods We collected and analyzed the reported HFMD cases in Urumqi City from the National Information System for Infectious Diseases Reporting during the period of 2014-2022. Results A total of 17 138 cases of HFMD were reported in Urumqi City from 2014 to 2022, with an average annual incidence rate of 52.66/100 000. The overall trend showed a decrease, and the peak months were from May to July. The top three districts with the highest incidence rates were High-tech Zone, Shayibake District, and Tianshan District. The male-to-female ratio was 1.48:1，and there were statistically significant differences in the incidence rates among gender (χ²=2.28,P>0.05). The majority of cases (90.23%) were children aged 0-6 years, primarily scattered children, and other enterovirus strains became dominant after 2017. Conclusion HFMD has shown a decreasing trend in Urumqi City, Xinjiang in recent years. The disease primarily affects pre-school children, and other enterovirus strains have become the dominant strains in the area. It is recommended to develop scientifically effective prevention and control measures based on the local situation to control the spread of HFMD.

Background The effects of meteorological factors and air pollutants on ischemic heart disease (IHD) hospitalizations in Urumqi have not been fully understood. Objective To investigate the effects of meteorological conditions (temperature, relative humidity) and common air pollutants [fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), inhalable particulate matter (PM₁₀), ozone (O₃), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and carbon monoxide (CO)] on the daily hospitalization volume of IHD, and to provide a scientific basis for the development of targeted prevention and management strategies. Methods Basic information of 90622 IHD hospitalized patients in Urumqi City was collected from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2022, and daily air pollutant concentration data and meteorological data were collected during the same period. The meteorological data included daily mean temperature, daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, and daily mean relative humidity, and the common air pollutants included PM_2.5, PM₁₀, daily maximum 8-h average concentration of O₃ (O₃_8 h), SO₂, NO₂, and CO. Descriptive statistical analyses (mean, standard deviation, and quartiles) were performed on the collected data. A distribution lag nonlinear model (DLNM) based on time-stratified case-crossover design was established to estimate the lagged effects (RR) as well as the cumulative lagged effects (RR_cum) of daily mean temperature, relative humidity, and different air pollutants on the number of IHD admissions, stratified by gender and age (<60 and ≥60 years). Subsequently, a generalized additive model (GAM) was used to explore the effects of cold waves (≤ P₅ of the daily minimum temperature and lasting ≥3 d) versus heat waves (≥ P₉₅ of the daily maximum temperature and lasting ≥3 d) on IHD hospitalizations and the potential interactions between temperature and the more influential air pollutants [particulate matter (PM) and O₃_8 h] on IHD hospitalizations. Results The maximum number of IHD hospitalizations in a single day in Urumqi from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2022 was 100, and the average daily number of hospitalized IHD patients was 27. Daily mean temperature, relative humidity, and air pollutants had different nonlinear relationships and hysteresis with IHD hospitalizations. Extremely low temperatures (<P₁: −18 °C) showed the greatest risk to admission for the total IHD population at a cumulative lag of 31 d (lag0-31) (RR_cum=2.092, 95%CI: 1.261,3.471). Female [lag0-31, RR_cum and 95%CI: 3.416 (2.296,5.082)] and people ≥60 years old [lag0-31, RR_cum and 95%CI: 2.356 (1.681,3.303)] were more sensitive to extremely low temperatures. The risk of IHD hospitalization was greatest on lag20 for cold waves (RR=1.242, 95%CI: 1.053, 1.465), and no lagged effect of heat waves on the number of IHD hospitalizations was found. There was a positive interaction (SI >1, P<0.001) between temperature, PM, and O₃_8 h on the risk of IHD hospitalization, especially for low temperature-high PM and O₃_8 h. Conclusion Both low temperature and high pollutant concentrations associate with an increase in IHD hospitalizations with lagged effects in Urumqi from 2014 to 2022, while cold waves associate with a higher risk of IHD admissions. Females and people aged 60 years and older are at high risk.

Objective: To analyze the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Xinjiang, and to provide reference for the prevention and control of pulmonary tuberculosis. Methods: The reported incidence numbers of tuberculosis and population data from various counties, cities(prefectures), and districts in Xinjiang from 2010 to 2022 were collected. Based on spatial-temporal scan statistics, standard deviational ellipse analysis, and centroid migration models, the clustering and migration trends of tuberculosis incidence were evaluated. Utilizing Kriging interpolation techniques, an interpolation analysis of the 2022 incidence rate was conducted on an annual scale, with the reported incidence rate in 2018 serving as a temporal control, to identify hotspots of the spatio-temporal distribution. ArcGIS software was employed to visualize the continuous spatial trends of incidence rate changes. Results: The annual reported incidence rate of tuberculosis in Xinjiang from 2010 to 2022 varied year by year, with fluctuations and increases prior to 2018, peaking in 2018, and then declining annually thereafter. The spatial distribution of the incidence rate exhibited a trend of initial clustering followed by diffusion, with the centroid of incidence shifting towards the northeast, yet the epicenter of the epidemic remained in Aksu Prefecture. The results of spatiotemporal scan statistics analysis revealed that the three-level aggregated areas of the epidemic encompassed a total of 41 prefectures, counties, and cities, with the tuberculosis incidence risk in the primary and secondary aggregated areas being significantly higher than that in other regions(P<0.01). The Kriging interpolation prediction map suggested that the four prefectures in southern Xinjiang continued to be high-risk regions for tuberculosis(incidence rate>300/100 000). The overall incidence rate in the northern region was relatively low, with the lowest rate observed in Urumqi, radiating outwards. Conclusion The incidence rate of tuberculosis in Xinjiang shows an upward trend before 2018, followed by a year-on-year decrease. The centroid of the incidence rate shifts towards the northeast. From 2010 to 2022, the tuberculosis epidemic in Xinjiang exhibits a notable spatiotemporal clustering, particularly prominent in the southwestern region, where the four prefectures constitute high-risk areas for tuberculosis. The prevention and control efforts of tuberculosis in Xinjiang should prioritize the regions with high tuberculosis incidence, intensifying prevention and control measures as well as policy support.

Objective To sort out the scientific research achievements in the direction of early warning of infectious diseases in China from 2001 to 2022, and analyze the research hotspots and trends in the direction of early warning of infectious diseases in China in recent 20 years, so as to provide reference for relevant policies and exploration directions. Methods Relevant literature retrieved from CNKI Chinese database was used as the data source, and Excel 2019 and Citespace 6.1.R2 software were used for visual analysis of research hotspots and frontier literature. Results A total of 1276 papers meeting requirements were obtained, and most of the research groups were relatively small and had little cooperation with others. The types of research institutions were relatively single, and most of them were domestic universities. ^“Infectious diseases^”, ^“early warning^” and ^“prediction^” were the most frequently used keywords. Research on big data and COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control is the current research frontier. Conclusion There is little cooperation among authors and between institutions in the field of early warning of infectious diseases in China. Using big data to early warning of infectious diseases and improving the ability of early warning of COVID-19 are the main research directions and trends at present.

{L-End}Objective To understand the influence of job burnout and anxiety symptoms on work ability of biosafety laboratory (BSL) workers in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. {L-End}Methods A total of 5 808 BSL workers in Xinjiang Region were selected as the research subjects using cluster sampling method. The Job Burnout Questionnaire, Anxiety Self-rating Scale and Work Ability Index Questionnaire were used to evaluate their job burnout, anxiety symptoms and work ability. The mediation effect of anxiety symptoms on the relationship between job burnout and work ability was tested by stepwise regression analysis. {L-End}Results The detection rate of job burnout, anxiety symptoms and poor working ability was 83.1% (4 829/5 808), 37.2% (2 160/5 808) and 5.8% (339/5 808), respectively. There was a positive correlation between job burnout and anxiety symptoms score in BSL workers ［correlation coefficient (r) was 0.48, P<0.01］. The score of job burnout and anxiety symptoms was negatively correlated with the work ability score (r were -0.58, -0.51, both P<0.01). The results of mediation effect analysis show that the total effect of job burnout on work ability was -0.31, with the direct effect of -0.15. The mediation effect of anxiety symptoms on the relationship between job burnout and work ability was -0.16, accounting for 51.6% of the total effect. {L-End}Conclusion The detection rates of job burnout and anxiety symptoms among BSL workers in Xinjiang Region are relatively high. Anxiety symptoms show a mediate effect on the relationship between job burnout and work ability. The work ability of BSL workers can be improved by improving job burnout and anxiety symptoms.

Abstract Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is characterized by long duration of disease and latent onset. Risk prediction models have shown potential for f early diagnosis and early treatment of diseases and formulation of targeted interventions. There is an increase in researches on risk prediction models for T2DM during the recent years, which provides the basis for precision tertiary prevention of T2DM; however, most studies suffer from problems of small sample size, complicated variables and difficulty in extensive applications. This review summarizes the risk prediction models for T2DM based on economic and easily available routine physical examination indicators, so as to provide insights into further studies on easy-to-perform and -popularize risk prediction models for T2DM.

Objective:According to Xinjiang's project funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China, this paper explores issues on discipline subject, talents, and cooperative research to provide decision-making references.Methods:Information about the funded research in Xinjiang during 2014-2018 was collected from NSF annual funding project statistical report, scientific project funding guidelines and related literature articles, retrospective statistical analysis were conducted to discuss the overall situation and trends.Results:There were 2 295 research projects were funded in Xinjiang by NSF from 2014 to 2018, with a total funding amount of 105.056 billion yuan.The number of projects funded was decreased by an average of 1.12% of the national level. The largest number of funded research came from regional support, accounted for 1 683, among which most of the projects were supported by the Ministry of Life Sciences accounted for 525 and 31.78% of the total funding. The lowest number of research funded was by the Department of Mathematics, Physics, Information Science, and Management Science, accounted for 76 and 4.6%.Conclusions:Compare to the total number of projects funded in the whole country, the proportion of projects funded in Xinjiang has declined. Xinjiang internally-funded universities and regions have developed imbalanced.Local talent has been seriously drained, and there is a lack of discipline leaders. It is recommended to strengthen project cooperation and retain talent.

Objective Through the analysis of the data such as the publication of the paper and the scientific research project of urumqi disease prevention and control center from 2008 to 2017,the research ability level of the center is comprehensively evaluated.Methods In this paper,the entropy weight method is used to process and analyze the data.According to the results of information entropy and weight,the comprehensive scores of each index project are obtained and sorted.Results The information entropy of the paper is the smallest,the weight is the largest,the information entropy of the scientific progress award and the result identification is the largest,and the weight is the smallest.The top four years in the comprehensive score are:2016,2017,2014 and 2015;The ranking year is 2012,2010,2013 and 2011 respectively.The last two years are 2008 and 2009.Conclusions Urumqi center for disease control and prevention,2008-2017,scientific research and comprehensive ability level,although each year a little ups and downs,but overall present a curve upward trend,have a qualitative leap in the area of scientific research,achieved the zero breakthrough,and formed a "scientific promoting business,business support scientific research "as the new situation.