Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

Objective To explore the diagnostic value of exhaled volatile organic compounds (VOCs) for cystic fibrosis (CF). Methods A systematic search was conducted in PubMed, EMbase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, CNKI, Wanfang, VIP, and SinoMed databases up to August 7, 2024. Studies that met the inclusion criteria were selected for data extraction and quality assessment. The quality of included studies was assessed by the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS), and the risk of bias and applicability of included prediction model studies were assessed by the prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST). Results A total of 10 studies were included, among which 5 studies only identified specific exhaled VOCs in CF patients, and another 5 developed 7 CF risk prediction models based on the identification of VOCs in CF. The included studies reported a total of 75 exhaled VOCs, most of which belonged to the categories of acylcarnitines, aldehydes, acids, and esters. Most models (n=6, 85.7%) only included exhaled VOCs as predictive factors, and only one model included factors other than VOCs, including forced expiratory flow at 75% of forced vital capacity (FEF75) and modified Medical Research Council scale for the assessment of dyspnea (mMRC). The accuracy of the models ranged from 77% to 100%, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 0.771 to 0.988. None of the included studies provided information on the calibration of the models. The results of the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) showed that the overall bias risk of all predictive model studies was high, and the overall applicability was unclear. Conclusion The exhaled VOCs reported in the included studies showed significant heterogeneity, and more research is needed to explore specific compounds for CF. In addition, risk prediction models based on exhaled VOCs have certain value in the diagnosis of CF, but the overall bias risk is relatively high and needs further optimization from aspects such as model construction and validation.

AIM: To observe the changes of retinal nerve fiber layer(RNFL)thickness and radial peripheral capillary(RPC)density in patients with unilateral branch retinal vein occlusion(BRVO), and further analyze the correlation between RPC density and RNFL thickness.METHODS: Observational study. Totally 37 patients with unilateral BRVO diagnosed at the ophthalmology department of First Hospital of Qinhuangdao from October 2020 to January 2022 were selected, the 37 affected eyes were the unilateral BRVO group, and 37 fellow healthy eyes were the contralateral unaffected group, and 35 healthy individuals(35 right eyes were selected)without ocular diseases during the same period were selected as the normal control group. The best corrected visual acuity, intraocular pressure, anterior segment, fundus and optical coherence tomography angiography(OCTA)were examined in both eyes of all BRVO patients and healthy individuals. The central macular thickness(CMT), the RNFL thickness, and the optic disc-AV crossing distance(DAVD)were measured by built-in software of the OCTA equipment. The optimized U-net algorithm was used to eliminate the large blood vessels, and then the RPC density was calculated. The CMT, RNFL thickness and RPC density were compared among the three groups. And the correlations of the RPC density with the CMT, RNFL thickness, and the DAVD were investigated.RESULTS: Compared with the contralateral unaffected group and the normal control group, the CMT and the RNFL thickness were significantly thickened in the unilateral BRVO group(all P<0.05); there were no statistical differences in the CMT and the RNFL thickness between the contralateral unaffected group and the normal control group(all P>0.05). The RPC density in the unilateral BRVO group increased compared with the contralateral unaffected group and decreased compared with the normal control group, but there was no statistically difference(all P>0.05). However, the RPC density in the contralateral unaffected group decreased compared with the normal control group(P<0.05). The RPC density in the unilateral BRVO group was not correlated with the CMT(P=0.960), but positively correlated with the RNFL thickness(r=0.401, P=0.014)and negatively correlated with the DAVD(r=-0.339, P=0.040).CONCLUSION: The RNFL thickened significantly and the RPC density did not change significantly in the optic disc area of BRVO patients. The RPC density is positively correlated with the RNFL thickness, indicating that the RNFL thickness can be used as a monitoring indicator to analyze and study the damage degree of the RPC density.

OBJECTIVE To optimize the simmering technology of Rheum palmatum from Menghe Medical School and compare the difference of chemical components before and after processing. METHODS Using appearance score， the contents of gallic acid， 5-hydroxymethylfurfural （5-HMF）， sennoside A+sennoside B， combined anthraquinone and free anthraquinone as indexes， analytic hierarchy process （AHP）-entropy weight method was used to calculate the comprehensive score of evaluation indicators； the orthogonal experiment was designed to optimize the processing technology of simmering R. palmatum with fire temperature， simmering time， paper layer number and paper wrapping time as factors； validation test was conducted. The changes in the contents of five anthraquinones （aloe-emodin， rhein， emodin， chrysophanol， physcion）， five anthraquinone glycosides （barbaloin， rheinoside， rhubarb glycoside， emodin glycoside， and emodin methyl ether glycoside）， two sennosides （sennoside A， sennoside B）， gallic acid and 5-HMF were compared between simmered R. palmatum prepared by optimized technology and R. palmatum. RESULTS The optimal processing conditions of R. palmatum was as follows: each 80 g R. palmatum was wrapped with a layer of wet paper for 0.5 h， simmered on high heat for 20 min and then simmered at 140 ℃， the total simmering time was 2.5 h. The average comprehensive score of 3 validation tests was 94.10 （RSD＜1.0%）. After simmering， the contents of five anthraquinones and two sennosides were decreased significantly， while those of 5 free anthraquinones and gallic acid were increased to different extents； a new component 5-HMF was formed. CONCLUSIONS This study successfully optimizes the simmering technology of R. palmatum. There is a significant difference in the chemical components before and after processing， which can explain that simmering technology slows down the relase of R. palmatum and beneficiate it.

[Objective] To evaluate the efficacy and safety of sacral neuromodulation (SNM) in the treatment of patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) complicated with underactive bladder (UAB) who respond poorly to transurethral resection of the prostate (TURP). [Methods] A retrospective analysis was performed on 10 patients with BPH and UAB treated with TURP by the same surgeon in Zhongda Hospital Southeast University during Jan.2018 and Jan.2023.The residual urine volume was not significantly relieved after operation, and the maximum urine flow rate and urine volume per discharge were not significantly improved.All patients underwent phase I SNM, and urinary diaries were recorded before and after surgery to observe the average daily frequency of urination, volume per urination, maximum urine flow rate, and residual urine volume. [Results] The operation time was (97.6±11.2) min.During the postoperative test of 2-4 weeks, if the residual urine volume reduction by more than 50% was deemed as effective, SNM was effective in 6 patients (60.0%). Compared with preoperative results, the daily frequency of urination [(20.2±3.8) times vs. (13.2±3.2) times], volume per urination [(119.2±56.7) mL vs. (246.5±59.2) mL], maximum urine flow rate [(8.7±1.5) mL/s vs. (16.5±2.6) mL/s], and residual urine volume [(222.5±55.0) mL vs. (80.8±16.0) mL] were significantly improved, with statistical significance (P<0.05). There were no complications such as bleeding, infection, fever or pain.The 6 patients who had effective outcomes successfully completed phase II surgery, and the fistula was removed.During the follow-up of 1 year, the curative effect was stable, and there were no complications such as electrode displacement, incision infection, or pain in the irritation sites.The residual urine volume of the other 4 unsuccessful patients did not improve significantly, and the electrodes were removed and the vesicostomy tube was retained. [Conclusion] SNM is safe and effective in the treatment of BPH with UAB patients with poor curative effects after TURP.

OBJECTIVE To investigate the effects and potential mechanism of Qiangxin decoction on mitochondrion of rats with chronic heart failure （CHF）. METHODS The CHF model was established by ligating the left anterior descending branch of the coronary artery. Modeled rats were divided into model group， Qiangxin decoction low-dose and high-dose groups （12.25， 24.50 g/kg， calculated by crude drug）， and chemical medicine group （Sacubitril valsartan sodium tablets， 10.42 mg/kg）， with 10 rats in each group； control group was set up without treatment. Each group of rats was orally administered with the corresponding medication or normal saline twice a day for 28 consecutive days. After the last medication， the contents of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide （NT-proBNP） and adenosine triphosphate （ATP） in serum and phosphatidic acid （PA） and cardiolipin （CL） in myocardial tissue were all detected； the pathological damage and collagen fibrosis of rat myocardial tissue were observed； the apoptosis of myocardial cells was determined； the ultrastructure of myocardial tissue was observed； the protein expressions of mitofusin 1 （Mfn1）， Mfn2， optic atrophy protein 1 （OPA1） and dynamin-related protein 1 （Drp1） were all detected in myocardial tissue. RESULTS Compared with control group，the serum content of NT-proBNP， apoptotic rate of myocardial cells， and relative expressions of S-OPA1 and Drp1 proteins were all increased significantly； serum content of ATP，contents of PA and CL， and relative expressions of Mfn1， Mfn2 and L-OPA1 proteins were all significantly reduced （P＜0.05）. There were abnormal membrane tissue structure in various layers of myocardial tissue， degeneration and necrosis of myocardial cells， and severe fibrosis； the mitochondria were swollen， with reduced or absent cristae， and uneven matrix density. After intervention with Qiangxin decoction， the levels of the aforementioned quantitative indicators in serum and myocardial tissue of rats （excluding CL content in the Qiangxin decoction low- dose group） were significantly reversed （P＜0.05）； the pathological damage of myocardial tissue had significantly improved， fibrosis had significantly reduced， mitochondrial morphology tended to be normal， cristae had increased， and matrix density was uniform. CONCLUSIONS Qiangxin decoction can regulate myocardial mitochondrial function and structural integrity of CHF rats， thereby improving myocardial energy metabolism and antagonizing myocardial fibrosis， the mechanism of which may be associated with activating PA/Mfn/CL signaling pathway.

Ankylosing spondylitis is a chronic immunoinflammatory disease that mainly affects the spine and the sacroiliac joint， the mechanism of which is closely related to signaling pathways， such as osteoprotegerin （OPG）/receptor activator of nuclear factor-κB （RANK）/RANK ligand， mitogen-activated protein kinase （MAPK）， Wnt/β-catenin （β-catenin）， phosphoinositide 3- kinase/protein kinase B/mammalian target of rapamycin （PI3K/Akt/mTOR）. Traditional Chinese medicine has the characteristics of multiple components and targets， and is widely used for the treatment of autoimmune diseases due to its low toxicity， strong specificity， and high efficacy. This review found that monomers and compounds of traditional Chinese medicine can exert anti ankylosing spondylitis effects by intervening in the aforementioned signaling pathways， regulating immune inflammatory responses， and inhibiting biological processes such as bone destruction， ectopic osteogenic differentiation， cell apoptosis， and autophagy.

OBJECTIVE To investigate the effects and potential mechanism of Qiangxin decoction on mitochondrion of rats with chronic heart failure （CHF）. METHODS The CHF model was established by ligating the left anterior descending branch of the coronary artery. Modeled rats were divided into model group， Qiangxin decoction low-dose and high-dose groups （12.25， 24.50 g/kg， calculated by crude drug）， and chemical medicine group （Sacubitril valsartan sodium tablets， 10.42 mg/kg）， with 10 rats in each group； control group was set up without treatment. Each group of rats was orally administered with the corresponding medication or normal saline twice a day for 28 consecutive days. After the last medication， the contents of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide （NT-proBNP） and adenosine triphosphate （ATP） in serum and phosphatidic acid （PA） and cardiolipin （CL） in myocardial tissue were all detected； the pathological damage and collagen fibrosis of rat myocardial tissue were observed； the apoptosis of myocardial cells was determined； the ultrastructure of myocardial tissue was observed； the protein expressions of mitofusin 1 （Mfn1）， Mfn2， optic atrophy protein 1 （OPA1） and dynamin-related protein 1 （Drp1） were all detected in myocardial tissue. RESULTS Compared with control group，the serum content of NT-proBNP， apoptotic rate of myocardial cells， and relative expressions of S-OPA1 and Drp1 proteins were all increased significantly； serum content of ATP，contents of PA and CL， and relative expressions of Mfn1， Mfn2 and L-OPA1 proteins were all significantly reduced （P＜0.05）. There were abnormal membrane tissue structure in various layers of myocardial tissue， degeneration and necrosis of myocardial cells， and severe fibrosis； the mitochondria were swollen， with reduced or absent cristae， and uneven matrix density. After intervention with Qiangxin decoction， the levels of the aforementioned quantitative indicators in serum and myocardial tissue of rats （excluding CL content in the Qiangxin decoction low- dose group） were significantly reversed （P＜0.05）； the pathological damage of myocardial tissue had significantly improved， fibrosis had significantly reduced， mitochondrial morphology tended to be normal， cristae had increased， and matrix density was uniform. CONCLUSIONS Qiangxin decoction can regulate myocardial mitochondrial function and structural integrity of CHF rats， thereby improving myocardial energy metabolism and antagonizing myocardial fibrosis， the mechanism of which may be associated with activating PA/Mfn/CL signaling pathway.

[Objective] To determine the correlation between traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) inspection of spirit classification and the severity grade of depression based on facial features, offering insights for intelligent intergrated TCM and western medicine diagnosis of depression. [Methods] Using the Audio-Visual Emotion Challenge and Workshop (AVEC 2014) public dataset on depression, which conclude 150 interview videos, the samples were classified according to the TCM inspection of spirit classification: Deshen (得神, presence of spirit), Shaoshen (少神, insufficiency of spirit), and Shenluan (神乱, confusion of spirit). Meanwhile, based on Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II) score for the severity grade of depression, the samples were divided into minimal (0 – 13, Q1), mild (14 – 19, Q2), moderate (20 – 28, Q3), and severe (29 – 63, Q4). Sixty-eight landmarks were extracted with a ResNet-50 network, and the feature extracion mode was stadardized. Random forest and support vectior machine (SVM) classifiers were used to predict TCM inspection of spirit classification and the severity grade of depression, respectively. A Chi-square test and Apriori association rule mining were then applied to quantify and explore the relationships. [Results] The analysis revealed a statistically significant and moderately strong association between TCM spirit classification and the severity grade of depression, as confirmed by a Chi-square test (χ2 = 14.04, P = 0.029) with a Cramer’s V effect size of 0.243. Further exploration using association rule mining identified the most compelling rule: “moderate depression (Q3) → Shenluan”. This rule demonstrated a support level of 5%, indicating this specific co-occurrence was present in 5% of the cohort. Crucially, it achieved a high Confidence of 86%, meaning that among patients diagnosed with Q3, 86% exhibited the Shenluan pattern according to TCM assessment. The substantial Lift of 2.37 signifies that the observed likelihood of Shenluan manifesting in Q3 patients is 2.37 times higher than would be expected by chance if these states were independent—compelling evidence of a highly non-random association. Consequently, Shenluan emerges as a distinct and core TCM diagnostic manifestation strongly linked to Q3, forming a clinically significant phenotype within this patient subgroup. [Conclusion] Automated facial analysis can serve as a common lens for TCM and western psychological assessments align in the diagnosis of depression. The inspection of spirit decline trajectory parallels worsening depression, supporting early screening and stratified intervention, and providing a reference for the intelligent assistance of integrated TCM and western medicine in the diagnosis of depression.

Objective: To explore the association between CDKAL1 rs35261542, FAIM2 rs 3205718, and VGLL4 rs 2574704 polymorphisms with childhood obesity and related metabolic phenotypes to provide evidence for personalized prevention and management strategies. Methods: Based on the 2023 Long term Nutritional Health Effects of Early Childhood Nutrition Package Intervention project, the study enrolled 1 078 children aged 5-7 years from four counties in Henan (Songxian and Ruyang countries) and Guizhou (Guiding and Fuquan countries) provinces. Using BMI Z scores, 87 overweight and obese(OVOB) children were selected and matched by sex, age, and BMI Z score with 117 normal weight controls. Participants were further stratified into four metabolic phenotype groups: metabolically healthy normal weight (MHNW, n =51), metabolically unhealthy normal weight (MUNW, n =66), metabolically healthy obesity (MHO, n =31) and metabolically unhealthy obesity (MUO, n =56) based on four conventional cardiometabolic risk factor (CR) criteria. Data were collected through questionnaires, anthropometric measurements, serum biochemical tests, and KASP genotyping. The distribution of three genetic polymorphisms ( CDKAL1 rs35261542, FAIM2 rs3205718, VGLL4 rs 2574704) across metabolic subgroups was analyzed. Multivariate Logistic regression models assessed associations between these polymorphisms and obesity/metabolic phenotypes. Results: Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that Homozygous mutant AA genotype of CDKAL1 rs 35261542 was positively associated with OVOB( OR =3.63), MHO ( OR =11.04), MUO ( OR = 4.88 ) ( P <0.05). Homozygous TT genotype of FAIM2 rs 3205718 increased OVOB risk ( OR =4.44, P <0.05) but showed no association with metabolic phenotypes ( P >0.05). Homozygous mutant TT of VGLL4 rs 2574704 reduced the risks of MHO and MUO ( OR = 0.30, 0.24， P <0.05). Cumulative genetic effects analysis demonstrated carriers of 1 or 2 risk genotypes of rs 35261542 and rs 3205718 had progressively higher OVOB risk ( OR =2.53, 20.79), and the combination of rs 35261542 and rs 2574704 increased risks for both MHO ( OR =8.50) and MUO ( OR =5.00) ( P <0.05). Conclusions The AA genotype of rs 35261542 ( CDKAL1 ) positively correlates with childhood obesity and metabolic abnormalities. The TT genotype of rs 3205718 ( FAIM 2) increases obesity risk but not metabolic phenotypes. The TT genotype of rs 2574704 ( VGLL 4) shows protective effects against metabolic dysfunction. Risk genotypes exhibit dosedependent cumulative effects on obesity and metabolic outcomes.