1.Comparison of the predictive performance of SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease
LU Wenhai ; KONG Xiaojie ; SONG Lixia ; LU Chunru ; YU Bikun ; XIE Yan
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2026;38(1):79-84
Objective:
To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease.
Methods:
Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance.
Results:
A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October).
Conclusions
For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.
2.Characterization and Application of Moisture Absorption Kinetics of Traditional Chinese Medicines Based on Double Exponential Model:A Review
Yanting YU ; Lei XIONG ; Yan HE ; Wei LIU ; Jing YANG ; Yao ZHANG ; Jiali CHEN ; Xiaojian LUO ; Xiaoyong RAO
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(5):340-346
Hygroscopicity research has long been a key focus and hot topic in Chinese materia medica(CMM). Elucidating hygroscopic mechanisms plays a vital role in formulation design, process optimization, and storage condition selection. Hygroscopic models serve as essential tools for characterizing CMM hygroscopic mechanisms, with various types available. The double exponential model is a kinetic mathematical model constructed based on the law of conservation of energy and Fick's first law of diffusion, tailored to the physical properties of CMM extracts. In recent years, this model has been extensively applied to simulate the dynamic moisture absorption behavior of CMM extracts and solid dosage forms under varying humidity conditions. It has revealed the correlation between moisture absorption kinetic parameters and material properties, offering a new perspective for characterizing the moisture uptake behavior of CMM. This paper systematically reviews the application progress of this model in the field of CMM, analyzes its advantages, disadvantages, and challenges in this domain, and explores its potential application trends in other fields. It aims to provide references for elucidating the moisture absorption mechanisms of CMM and researching moisture-proofing technologies, while also offering insights for its broader application in food and polymer materials.
3.Research progress on the role of Porphyromonas gingivalis in the progression of tumor
Journal of Prevention and Treatment for Stomatological Diseases 2026;34(2):180-190
Periodontitis is a chronic inflammatory disease. The heterotopic colonization of periodontal pathogens results in the development of several systemic diseases. Porphyromonas gingivalis (P. gingivalis), a key pathogen for periodontitis, has been linked to the development of various cancers, such as oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC), lung cancer, esophageal cancer, pancreatic cancer, colorectal cancer, cervical cancer, and prostate cancer. P. gingivalis promote the progression of tumor through various mechanisms, P. gingivalis regulates proteins targeting cell cycle and apoptosis to promote proliferation of tumor cells directly, enhances tumor stemness by upregulating the expression of cluster of differentiation 44 (CD44) and cluster of differentiation 133 (CD133), activates inflammasome and p38/c-Jun N-terminal kinase 1(JNK) pathways, regulates tumor-associated neutrophil (TAN) polarization to remodel the tumor microenvironment, regulates epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) to promote tumor metastasis, remodel macrophage function to evade host immune response, and regulates multi-communicating with symbiotic bacteria. In addition, P. gingivalis accelerates the progression of esophageal cancer, pancreatic cancer, colorectal cancer, and prostate cancer by promoting cell proliferation, inhibiting apoptosis, inducing chronic inflammation, and escaping immunity. However, the oral microbiome is a complex system, whether the interactions between oral bacteria affect tumor progression needs to be further investigated.
4.Serological and genetic analysis of a novel 27delC variant in A subgroup: a case report
Yingjun ZHANG ; Yuli ZHU ; Zhihui FENG ; Shuhong YU
Chinese Journal of Blood Transfusion 2025;38(2):280-283
[Objective] To conduct serological identification and molecular mechanism study on a ambiguous ABO blood group. [Methods] Standard serological techniques were used for the forward and reverse typing of ABO blood type. ABO gene coding and regulatory regions were analyzed by PCR after DNA extraction. Monoclonal sequencing was used to detect the haplotypes of the DNA sequence, and bioinformatics analysis was applied to predict the possible translation outcomes of the mutated DNA sequence. [Results] The sample’s red blood cells showed mixed field agglutination with anti-A, and the serum agglutinated with B cells, exhibiting serological characteristics of subtype A. Direct sequencing and monoclonal sequencing analysis of the ABO gene confirmed one allele as O02, the other had a c.27delC mutation compared with A102, which could cause the translation sequence to terminate prematurely at the 19th amino acids. Analysis and prediction suggested that the mutation might affect the function of the transferase through mechanisms such as shifting the initiation codon, altering the reading frame and affecting the splice sites. [Conclusion] This case is a rare A subtype caused by the c.27delC variation, and the impact on the glycosyltransferase may involve multiple mechanisms, which require further research and exploration.
5.The introduction on standards system of the pharmaceutical packaging materials in the Chinese Pharmacopoeia 2025 Edition
CHEN Lei ; YU Hui ; WANG Yan ; ZHANG Jun ; MA Shuangcheng
Drug Standards of China 2025;26(1):067-076
The standard of Pharmaceutical packaging materials is an important part of the Chinese Pharmacopoeia. This article focuses on working background, general idea, working process, main framework, and its role and significance of the pharmaceutical packaging materials standards system in the Chinese Pharmacopoeia 2025 Edition, which can contribute to accurately understand and utilize the standards in the Chinese Pharmacopoeia 2025 Edition.
6.Availability and use of child safety seats among children aged 0-3 years
CHEN Bo ; WANG Xihui ; QIU Fengqian ; YU Yan ; GAO Shuna ; HE Lihua ; LI Weiyi ; JI Yunfang ; CHEN Weihua
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(1):21-25
Objective:
To investigate the availability and use of child safety seats among children aged 0-3 years, so as to provide the basis for improving riding safety for children.
Methods:
Parents of children aged 0-3 years in Huangpu District, Shanghai Municipality, were recruited using the stratified multistage random sampling method from May to July 2024. Demographic information, family travel patterns, the use of child safety seat and related health beliefs were collected using questionnaire surveys. Factors affecting the use of child safety seats were identified using a multivariable logistic regression model.
Results:
Totally 514 valid questionnaires were recovered, with an effective rate of 96.98%. The respondents included 122 fathers (23.74%) and 392 mothers (76.26%), with a median age of 34.00 (interquartile range, 5.00) years. There were 446 families equipping with child safety seats, accounting for 86.77%; and 169 families using child safety seats, accounting for 32.88%. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that the parents who had children aged >1-2 years (OR=0.597, 95%CI: 0.366-0.973), travelled 2-4 times per month (OR=0.359, 95%CI: 0.213-0.607) or once per month or less (OR=0.384, 95%CI: 0.202-0.729), and scored high in perceived barrier (OR=0.634, 95%CI: 0.486-0.827) were less likely to use child safety seats; the parents who had children with local household registration (OR=2.506, 95%CI: 1.356-4.633), travelled 5-<10 km (OR=1.887, 95%CI: 1.148-3.101) or ≥10 km (OR=2.319, 95%CI: 1.355-3.967), always wore seat belts (OR=2.342, 95%CI: 1.212-4.524), scored high in perceived susceptibility (OR=1.392, 95%CI: 1.091-1.778) and self-efficacy (OR=1.413, 95%CI: 1.156-1.727) were more likely to use child safety seats.
Conclusions
Equipping family cars with child safety seats and using them can prevent and reduce traffic injuries among children aged 0-3 years. It is recommended to strengthen publicity to promote the use of child safety seats.
7.Invasion and Metastasis in Colorectal Cancer Mediated by Traditional Chinese Medicine via Cell Signaling Pathway: A Review
Min GUO ; Wenyan YU ; Naicheng ZHU ; Yuwei YAN ; Chen ZHONG ; Xiudan CHEN ; Nanxin LI ; Guojuan WANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(4):323-330
Colorectal cancer is a common and malignant tumor in the digestive tract. Invasion and metastasis of cancer cells are key factors leading to the high mortality rate and postoperative recurrence of colorectal cancer. Chemotherapy is the main treatment method for preventing recurrence of this disease. However, there are many toxic side effects in clinical application, which seriously hinder the treatment process. Therefore, it is imperative to search for efficient and low-toxicity drugs. Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) has a long history of treating colorectal cancer and offers advantages such as safety, effectiveness, multiple targets, multiple pathways and minimal toxic side effects, which have made it increasingly popular worldwide. According to TCM, the pathogenesis of colorectal cancer is rooted in both deficiency and excess. TCM formulas mainly focus on tonifying the body to address the invasion and metastasis of colorectal cancer, such as Jianpi compound, Jianpi Xiaoai decoction, and Bushen Jiedu Sanjie decoction. TCM monomers, such as emodin, berberine, and tanshinone, mainly focus on clearing heat and removing toxin, circulating blood and transforming stasis, and resolving swelling and dispersing nodules. Signaling pathways play a crucial role for analyzing invasion and metastasis, and research has shown that pathways such as Wnt/β-catenin, phosphatidylinositol-3 kinase/protein kinase (PI3K/Akt), Janus kinase 2/signal transduction and transcription activating factor 3 (JAK2/STAT3), nuclear factors-κB (NF-κB), vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) play important roles in the invasion and metastasis of colorectal cancer. The invasion and metastasis of colorectal cancer can be inhibited via regulating the key proteins and related factors in these pathways. In this review, we searched various literature databases, such as PubMed, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), and VIP, using keywords such as "colorectal cancer", "signaling pathway", "invasion and metastasis", and "traditional Chinese medicine", to summarize and analyze the relevant pathways of TCM compounds and monomers against invasion and metastasis of colorectal cancer published in the past five years. The review aims to provide new insights and references for in-depth research on the therapy for invasion and metastasis of colorectal cancer and new drug development.
8.Analysis of the current status of red blood cell transfusion in very preterm infants from Chinese Neonatal Network in 2022
Yan MO ; Aimin QIAN ; Ruimiao BAI ; Shujuan LI ; Xiaoqing YU ; Jin WANG ; K. Shoo LEE ; Siyuan JIANG ; Qiufen WEI ; Wenhao ZHOU
Chinese Journal of Pediatrics 2025;63(1):55-61
Objective:To analyze the current status of red blood cell transfusion in very preterm infants (VPI) (gestational age at birth <32 weeks) from Chinese Neonatal Network (CHNN) in 2022.Methods:This cross-sectional study was based on the CHNN VPI cohort. It included 6 985 VPI admitted to CHNN 89 participating centers within 24 hours after birth in 2022. VPI with major congenital anomalies or those transferred to non-CHNN centers for treatment or discharged against medical advice were excluded. VPI were categorized based on whether they received red blood cell transfusions, their gestational age at birth, the type of respiratory support received during transfusion, and whether the pre-transfusion hemoglobin levels exceeded the thresholds. General characteristics, red blood cell transfusion rates, number of transfusions, timing of the first transfusion, and pre-transfusion hemoglobin levels were compared among different groups. The incidence of adverse outcomes between the group of VPI who received transfusions above the threshold and those who received transfusions below the threshold were compared. Comparison among different groups was conducted using χ2 tests, Kruskal-Wallis H tests, Mann-Whitney U test, and so on. Trends by gestational age at birth were evaluated by Cochran-Armitage tests and Jonckheere-Terpstra tests for trend. Results:Among the 6 985 VPI, 3 865 cases(55.3%) were male, with a gestational age at birth of 30.0 (28.6, 31.0) weeks and a birth weight of (1 302±321) g. Overall, 3 617 cases (51.8%) received red blood cell transfusion, while 3 368 cases (48.2%) did not. The red blood cell transfusion rate was 51.8% (3 617/6 985), with rates of 77.7% (893/1 150) for those born before 28 weeks gestational age and 46.7% (2 724/5 835) for those born between 28 and 31 weeks gestational age. A total of 9 616 times red blood cell transfusions were administered to 3 617 VPI, with 632 times missing pre-transfusion hemoglobin data, and 8 984 times included in the analysis. Of the red blood cell transfusions, 25.6% (2 459/9 616) were administered when invasive respiratory support was required, 51.3% (4 934/9 616) were receiving non-invasive respiratory support, while 23.1% (2 223/9, 616) were given when no respiratory support was needed. Compared to the non-transfusion group, the red blood cell transfusion group had a higher rate of pregnancy-induced hypertension in mothers, lower rates of born via cesarean section and mother′s antenatal steroid administration, smaller gestational age, lower birth weight, a higher proportion of small-for-gestational-age, multiple births, and proportions of Apgar score at the 5 th minute after birth ≤3 (all P<0.05). They were also less likely to be female, born in hospital or undergo delayed cord clamping (all P<0.01). Additionally, higher transport risk index of physiologic stability score at admission were observed in the red blood cell transfusion group ( P<0.001). The number of red blood cell transfusion was 2 (1, 3) times, with the first transfusion occurring at an age of 18 (8, 29) days, and a pre-transfusion hemoglobin level of 97 (86, 109) g/L. For VPI ≤7 days of age, the pre-transfusion hemoglobin levels for invasive respiratory support, non-invasive respiratory support, or no respiratory support, respectively, with no statistically significant differences between groups ( H=5.59, P=0.061). For VPI aged 8 to 21 days and≥22 days, the levels with statistically differences between groups (both P<0.01). Red blood cell transfusions above recommended thresholds were observed in all respiratory support categories at different stages of life, with the highest prevalence in infants aged 8 to 21 days and≥22 days who did not require respiratory support, at 90.1% (264/273) and 91.1%(1 578/1 732), respectively. The rate of necrotizing enterocolitis was higher in the above-threshold group ( χ2=10.59, P=0.001), and the duration of hospital stay was longer in the above-threshold group ( Z=4.67, P<0.001) compared to the below-threshold group. Conclusions:In 2022, the red blood cell transfusion rate was relatively high among VPI from CHNN. Pre-transfusion hemoglobin levels frequently exceeded recommended transfusion thresholds.
9.Mid-long term follow-up reports on head and neck rhabdomyosarcoma in children
Chao DUAN ; Sidou HE ; Shengcai WANG ; Mei JIN ; Wen ZHAO ; Xisi WANG ; Zhikai LIU ; Tong YU ; Lejian HE ; Xiaoman WANG ; Chunying CUI ; Xin NI ; Yan SU
Chinese Journal of Pediatrics 2025;63(1):62-69
Objective:To analyze the clinical characteristics of children with head and neck rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS) and to summarize the mid-long term efficacy of Beijing Children′s Hospital Rhabdomyosarcoma 2006 (BCH-RMS-2006) regimen and China Children′s Cancer Group Rhabdomyosarcoma 2016 (CCCG-RMS-2016) regimen.Methods:A retrospective cohort study. Clinical data of 137 children with newly diagnosed head and neck RMS at Beijing Children′s Hospital, Capital Medical University from March 2013 to December 2021 were collected. Clinical characteristic of patients at disease onset and the therapeutic effects of patients treated with the BCH-RMS-2006 and CCCG-RMS-2016 regimens were compared. The treatments and outcomes of patients with recurrence were also summarized. Survival analysis was performed by Kaplan-Meier method, and Log-Rank test was used for comparison of survival rates between groups.Results:Among 137 patients, there were 80 males (58.4%) and 57 females (41.6%), the age of disease onset was 59 (34, 97) months. The primary site in the orbital, non-orbital non-parameningeal, and parameningeal area were 10 (7.3%), 47 (34.3%), and 80 (58.4%), respectively. Of all patients, 32 cases (23.4%) were treated with the BCH-RMS-2006 regimen and 105 (76.6%) cases were treated with the CCCG-RMS-2016 regimen. The follow-up time for the whole patients was 46 (20, 72) months, and the 5-year progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) rates for the whole children were (60.4±4.4)% and (69.3±4.0)%, respectively. The 5-year OS rate was higher in the CCCG-RMS-2016 group than in BCH-RMS-2006 group ((73.0±4.5)% vs. (56.6±4.4)%, χ2=4.57, P=0.029). For the parameningeal group, the 5-year OS rate was higher in the CCCG-RMS-2016 group (61 cases) than in BCH-RMS-2006 group (19 cases) ((57.3±7.6)% vs. (32.7±11.8)%, χ2=4.64, P=0.031). For the group with meningeal invasion risk factors, the 5-year OS rate was higher in the CCCG-RMS-2016 group (54 cases) than in BCH-RMS-2006 group (15 cases) ((57.7±7.7)% vs. (30.0±12.3)%, χ2=4.76, P=0.029). Among the 10 cases of orbital RMS, there was no recurrence. In the non-orbital non-parameningeal RMS group (47 cases), there were 13 (27.6%) recurrences, after re-treatment, 7 cases survived. In the parameningeal RMS group (80 cases), there were 40 (50.0%) recurrences, with only 7 cases surviving after re-treatment. Conclusions:The overall prognosis for patients with orbital and non-orbital non-parameningeal RMS is good. However, children with parameningeal RMS have a high recurrence rate, and the effectiveness of re-treatment after recurrence is poor. Compared with the BCH-RMS-2006 regimen, the CCCG-RMS-2016 regimen can improve the treatment efficacy of RMS in the meningeal region.
10.Comparison of multiple machine learning models for predicting the survival of recipients after lung transplantation
Lingzhi SHI ; Yaling LIU ; Haoji YAN ; Zengwei YU ; Senlin HOU ; Mingzhao LIU ; Hang YANG ; Bo WU ; Dong TIAN ; Jingyu CHEN
Organ Transplantation 2025;16(2):264-271
Objective To compare the performance and efficacy of prognostic models constructed by different machine learning algorithms in predicting the survival period of lung transplantation (LTx) recipients. Methods Data from 483 recipients who underwent LTx were retrospectively collected. All recipients were divided into a training set and a validation set at a ratio of 7:3. The 24 collected variables were screened based on variable importance (VIMP). Prognostic models were constructed using random survival forest (RSF) and extreme gradient boosting tree (XGBoost). The performance of the models was evaluated using the integrated area under the curve (iAUC) and time-dependent area under the curve (tAUC). Results There were no significant statistical differences in the variables between the training set and the validation set. The top 15 variables ranked by VIMP were used for modeling and the length of stay in the intensive care unit (ICU) was determined as the most important factor. Compared with the XGBoost model, the RSF model demonstrated better performance in predicting the survival period of recipients (iAUC 0.773 vs. 0.723). The RSF model also showed better performance in predicting the 6-month survival period (tAUC 6 months 0.884 vs. 0.809, P = 0.009) and 1-year survival period (tAUC 1 year 0.896 vs. 0.825, P = 0.013) of recipients. Based on the prediction cut-off values of the two algorithms, LTx recipients were divided into high-risk and low-risk groups. The survival analysis results of both models showed that the survival rate of recipients in the high-risk group was significantly lower than that in the low-risk group (P<0.001). Conclusions Compared with XGBoost, the machine learning prognostic model developed based on the RSF algorithm may preferably predict the survival period of LTx recipients.


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