1.Application of time series and machine learning models in predicting the trend of sickness absenteeism among primary and secondary school students in Shanghai
WANG Zhengzhong, ZHANG Zhe, ZHOU Xinyi, YUAN Linlin, ZHAI Yani, SUN Lijing, LUO Chunyan
Chinese Journal of School Health 2025;46(3):426-430
Objective:
To analyze the temporal variation patterns of sickness absenteeism among primary and secondary school students in Shanghai, so as to explore models suitable for predicting peaks and intensity of absenteeism rates.
Methods:
The seasonal and trend decomposition using loess (STL) method was used to analyze the seasonal and long term trend changes in sickness absenteeism among primary and secondary school students from September 1 in 2010 to June 30 in 2018, in Shanghai. A hierarchical clustering method based on Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) was employed to classify absenteeism symptoms with similar temporal patterns. Based on historical data, the study constructed and evaluated different time series algorithms and machine learning models to optimize the accuracy of predicting the trend of sickness absenteeism.
Results:
During the research period, the average new absenteeism rate due to illness was 16.86 per 10 000 person day for every academic year, and the trend of sickness absenteeism exhibited both seasonality and a long term upward trend, reaching its highest point in the 2017 academic year (22.47 per 10 000 person day). The symptoms of absenteeism were divided into three categories: high incidence in winter and spring (respiratory symptoms, fever and general discomfort, etc.), high incidence in summer (eye symptoms, nosebleeds, etc.) and those without obvious seasonality (skin symptoms, accidental injuries, etc.).The constructed time series models effectively predicted the trend of absenteeism due to illness, although the accuracy of predicting peak intensity was relatively low. Among them, the multi layer perceptron (MLP) model performed the best, with an root mean squared error (RMSE) of 8.96 and an mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.37, reducing 36.51% and 39.02% compared to the baseline model.
Conclusion
Time series models and machine learning algorithms could effectively predict the trend of sickness absenteeism, and corresponding prevention and control measures can be taken for absenteeism caused by different symptoms during peak periods.
2.Modified Xiehuangsan Regulates Microglial Polarization and TLR4/MyD88/NF-κB Pathway to Treat Tic Disorders in Rats
Mengjie ZHAO ; Qiong ZHAO ; Cuiling YANG ; Hongyun ZHOU ; Xiangjuan SUN ; Xinyi GUO ; Sajiyue HUANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(4):10-18
ObjectiveTo explore the mechanism of modified Xiehuangsan in treating tic disorders (TD) based on microglial polarization and the Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4)/myeloid differentiation factor 88 (MyD88)/nuclear factor (NF)-κB pathway. MethodsSeventy-two Sprague-Dawley (SD) rats were randomly assigned into six groups: control, model, tiapride (0.025 g·kg-1), and low-, medium-, and high-dose (12, 24, 48 g·kg-1, respectively) modified Xiehuangsan, with 12 rats in each group. Except the control group, the other groups received intraperitoneal injection of 3,3'-iminodipropionitrile (IDPN) for 7 consecutive days for the modeling of TD. After successful modeling, the control and model groups were given normal saline via gavage, and the other groups were administrated with corresponding drugs by gavage. After 28 days of continuous intervention, rat behaviors were observed, and the modified Xiehuangsan group showing the best anti-TD effect was selected for deciphering the treatment mechanism. Hematoxylin and eosin staining was conducted to observe morphological changes in the rat striatum. Immunohistochemistry was employed to detect the expression of CD16 and CD206 in the striatum. Real-time PCR was employed to measure the mRNA levels of interleukin-1β (IL-1β), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), IL-4, TLR4, MyD88, and NF-κB p65 in the striatum. Western blot was employed to determine the protein levels of ionized calcium-binding adapter molecule 1 (Iba1), Fc receptor family for immunoglobulin (Ig)G type Ⅲ (CD16), mannose receptor (CD206), TLR4, MyD88, and NF-κB p65 in the striatum. ResultsCompared with the control group, the model group showed increased stereotyped behaviors, locomotor activity, total movement distance, and movement speed, shortened resting time (P<0.01), and noticeable pathological changes in the striatum. Compared with the model group, the tiapride group and modified Xiehuangsan groups exhibited reduced stereotyped behavior, locomotor activity, total movement distance, and movement speed, prolonged resting time (P<0.05, P<0.01), and alleviated pathological changes in the striatum. Among the modified Xiehuangsan groups, the high-dose group had the best intervention effect and the mildest pathological changes. Therefore, the high-dose group was selected for further research. Compared with the control group, the modeling of TD increased Iba1 and CD16 expression (P<0.05, P<0.01), up-regulated the mRNA levels of IL-1β and TNF-α (P<0.05, P<0.01), down-regulated the mRNA level of IL-4 (P<0.05), up-regulated the mRNA and protein levels of TLR4 and MyD88 (P<0.05, P<0.01), and up-regulated the protein level of NF-κB p65 (P<0.01). Compared with the model group, modified Xiehuangsan reduced Iba1 and CD16 expression (P<0.05, P<0.01), up-regulated the protein level of CD206 (P<0.05, P<0.01), down-regulated the mRNA levels of IL-1β and TNF-α (P<0.05), up-regulated the mRNA level of IL-4 (P<0.01), and down-regulated the mRNA and protein levels of TLR4, MyD88, and NF-κB p65 (P<0.05, P<0.01). ConclusionModified Xiehuangsan demonstrated a definite therapeutic effect on TD in rats. It may reduce neuroinflammation in TD rats by regulating the polarization of microglia in the striatum via the TLR4/MyD88/NF-κB signaling pathway.
3.Acupuncture Treatment Strategies for Crohn's Disease Based on the Principle of "Shaoyang as the Pivot"
Chunhui BAO ; Jin HUANG ; Xinyi ZHU ; Zhou HAO ; Luyi WU ; Huirong LIU ; Huangan WU
Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2025;66(10):1017-1022
The shaoyang meridian is an important pivot between the internal organs and meridians system, with the functions of regulating qi and blood, balancing yin and yang, and coordinating the ascending and descending movement of qi. Dysfunction of the shaoyang pivot can lead to spleen and kidney deficiency, impaired liver and gallbladder qi regulation, and stagnation of qi and blood. It is believed that the onset and progression of Crohn's disease are closely related to shaoyang pivot dysfunction, with the core pathogenesis characterized by shaoyang disharmony, spleen deficiency, dampness retention, and blood stasis. Based on this understanding, the treatment principle centers on harmonizing the shaoyang pivot, supplemented by methods such as warming and nourishing the spleen and stomach, tonifying shaoyang, and soothing the liver and benefiting the gallbladder. Acupuncture is employed to target key acupoints along the shaoyang meridian to restore its regulatory functions, improve spleen and stomach transformation and transportation, facilitate liver and gallbladder qi flow, and promote the circulation of qi and blood. This provides a practical therapeutic approach for acupuncture-based treatment of Crohn's disease.
4.Expression and role of triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 2 in high glucose-treated microglia
Zhaohui WANG ; Xiao LIU ; Yue ZHOU ; Xinyi WEI ; Yue WANG ; Junfa LI ; Li ZHAO
Basic & Clinical Medicine 2024;44(2):167-173
Objective To explore the expression of triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 2(TREM2)in high-glucose microglia and to investigate the role of TREM2 in the proliferation,migration and phagocytosis of high-glucose microglia.Methods Microglia cells were divided into control group and high-glucose treatment group(67.5 mmol/L glucose,24 h).The microglia cells were counted and the expression of Iba1 and TREM2 was de-tected.TREM2 siRNA was transfected to detect the proliferation and migration of microglia.The amyloid β-peptide(Aβ)with a fluorescent tag was added to observe the phagocytosis of Aβ by microglia.Results Compared to normal microglia,the number of microglia significantly decreased after high-glucose treatment(P<0.001),while the ex-pression of TREM2 and Iba1 markedly increased(P<0.001).High glucose and TREM2 did not affect the prolifer-ation of microglia.Compared to the normal group,the migration of microglia significantly decreased after high-glu-cose treatment(P<0.05)and TREM2 did not affect the migration ability of high-glucose microglia.Compared to the normal group,the phagocytosis of Aβ by microglia significantly decreased in the high-glucose treated group(P<0.001).Furthermore,TREM2 knockdown further decreased the phagocytosis of Aβ by high-glucose microglia(P<0.001).Conclusions The expression of TREM2 in microglia significantly increases after high-glucose treat-ment,which significantly affects phagocytosis of Aβ by microglia.
5.The hemostatic effect and its mechanism of modified Sijunzi Decoction on the zebrafish intestinal bleeding model through 5-hydroxytryptamine and its receptors
Jun WANG ; Haiyan LANG ; Jiali ZHOU ; Xueying ZHANG ; Yanhong KANG ; Yun ZHANG ; Xinyi CHEN ; Wei MA
Journal of Beijing University of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2024;47(4):516-522
Objective We aimed to investigate the hemostatic effect and mechanism of modified Sijunzi Decoction(MSJZT),consisting of tangshen,India bread,largehead atractylodes rhizome,liquorice root,milkvetch root,ass hide glue,and India madder root,on the zebrafish intestinal bleeding model through 5-hydroxytryptamine(5-HT)and its receptors(5-HT2aR,5-HT2bR).Methods Zebrafish at 4 days post fertilization were used as the research object.An intestinal bleeding model was established by induction with 6 μmol/L simvastatin for 24 hours.The zebrafish were divided into normal group,model group,MSJZT low-,mid-and high-concentration groups(55.6,167,500 mg/L),and after modeling,the corresponding concentration of MSJZT was administered.The samples were collected after 24 hours.Platelet count(PLT)and bleeding status were observed.The content of 5-HT and Caspase 3/7 activity were detected by colorimetry.The gene expressions of 5-HT2aR,5-HT2bR and serotonin transporter(SERT)were detected by real-time PCR.The protein expressions of protein kinase B(AKT),phosphorylated AKT(p-AKT),extracellular signal-regulated protein kinase(ERK),and phosphorylated ERK(p-ERK)were detected by Western blotting.Results The intestinal bleeding rate in the model group was 70.0%,and that in the MSJZT low-,mid-and high-concentration groups was 36.7%,40.0%,and 80.0%,respectively;the intestinal hemostatic effect was 54%,52%,and 7%,respectively.Compared with the model group,the PLT in the MSJZT low-and mid-concentration groups decreased;the content of 5-HT in all MSJZT groups increased,and the gene expressions of 5-HT2aR and 5-HT2bR were up-regulated.The gene expression of SERT was up-regulated in the low-and mid-concentration groups;the Caspase 3/7 activity in the mid-and high-concentration groups was reduced;the expressions of p-AKT and p-ERK proteins were up-regulated in the low-and mid-concentration groups(all P<0.05).Conclusion MSJZT can reduce the incidence and severity of intestinal bleeding in zebrafish intestinal bleeding models.The mechanism may be achieved by activating AKT and ERK signaling pathways through 5-HT and its receptors.
6.Feasibility study on the use of peripheral blood differentially expressed genes for objective classification of chronic subjective tinnitus: a case study on high-frequency tinnitus
Zhicheng LI ; Bixing FANG ; Jin XIE ; Xinyi WANG ; Jingshi ZHOU ; Xiangli ZENG
Chinese Journal of Otorhinolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery 2024;59(7):727-734
Objective:To explore the feasibility of constructing an objective tinnitus subtype model based on peripheral blood differentially expressed genes (DEGs) using a combination of Weighted Gene Co-expression Network Analysis (WGCNA) and Random Forest algorithm (RF).Methods:From October 2019 to June 2020, peripheral blood DEGs were obtained from 37 patients (from the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University)with chronic subjective high-frequency tinnitus (21 unbothersome type, 16 bothersome type) and 20 healthy volunteers through high-throughput sequencing. WGCNA was used to construct gene modules with different expression patterns and analyze their relationships with tinnitus characteristics. Subsequently, RF was employed to build subtype models, which were evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, and F1-score.Results:A total of 12 351 intergroup DEGs were divided into 9 gene modules. Among them, MEblue, MEgreen, and MEbrown showed significant negative correlations with the healthy volunteer group, while MEpink showed a significant positive correlation with the tinnitus distress group. The "Tinnitus vs. Normal" and "Compensatory vs. Decompensatory" subtype models, based on MEblue and MEpink respectively, both had AUCs greater than 0.80, accuracies above 90%, and F1-scores above 0.90, indicating good performance.Conclusions:Peripheral blood DEGs are potential biological indicators for objective classification of subjective tinnitus. The combined application of WGCNA and the Random Forest algorithm should be a viable approach to constructing an objective tinnitus subtype model. However, further exploration and refinement are needed to validate the model′s generalizability, cross-dataset performance, and algorithm optimization.
7.Disease burden and economic burden of breast cancer in females in China: a synthesis analysis
Xinyi ZHOU ; Xin WANG ; Yanjie LI ; Yujie WU ; Le WANG ; Hong WANG ; Jufang SHI
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2024;45(9):1185-1196
Objective:To understand the current and integrated disease burden and economic burden caused by breast cancer in females in China.Methods:Based on six updated data sources, including the series of Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report, China Death Cause Surveillance Datasets, China Health Statistical Yearbook, GLOBOCAN, Cancer Incidence in Five Continents, Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), the information about incidence, mortality and disability adjusted life years (DALY) of breast cancer were extracted for the analysis on the current incidence and time trend of breast cancer and predicted disease burden of breast cancer in females in China. Software Joinpoint was used for time trend analysis. The data of economic burden were systematically updated and analyzed by literature review.Results:1) GLOBOCAN 2022 estimated that the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and one- year prevalence rate of breast cancer in females were 33.0/100 000, 6.1/100 000 and 40.1/100 000, respectively, in China in 2022. According to Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report, the ASIR and ASMR were 28.4/100 000 and 5.8/100 000, respectively, in 2018. The China Death Cause Surveillance Datasets showed that the ASMR was 4.5/100 000 in 2021, and the urban to rural area mortality ratio was 1.2∶1. GBD reported that the DALYs of breast cancer were 2.921 million in China in 2021, accounting for 14.4% of the global total. 2) Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report data showed that the ASIR and ASMR of breast cancer decreased by 2.1% and 11.4%, respectively, in China from 2009 to 2018, while increased by 43.9% and 8.2% in rural area, respectively. The Joinpoint analysis showed that the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of ASIR and ASMR in China were -0.2% ( P>0.05) and -1.6% ( P<0.05). The AAPC of ASIR and ASMR in rural area were 3.9% ( P<0.05) and 0.6% ( P>0.05), and -0.3% ( P>0.05) and -1.2% ( P<0.05) in urban area, respectively. China Health Statistical Yearbook data showed that the urban ASMR decreased by 12.3% from 2014 to 2021 with AAPC of -2.6% ( P<0.05). 3) The GLOBOCAN 2022 predicted that, the breast cancer case count and death count in China would be 387 776 and 111 133 by 2050, an increase of 8.6% and 48.2%, respectively, compared with 2022, the increases would be more obvious in people over 65 years old, an increase of 80.8% and 124.9%, respectively. 4) Thirteen individual- based studies reported that the median medical expenditure per patient ( M=21 000 to 39 000 Yuan) and length of hospital stay ( M=11.0 to 30.5 days) for breast cancer treatment decreased from 2010 to 2019, while the average medical expenditure per visit ( M=9 000 to 23 000 Yuan) showed an upward trend. There was only one national-level analysis, which showed that the treatment cost of breast cancer was 25.24 billion Yuan in China in 2018, accounting for 6.4% of the total cancer treatment cost. Conclusions:According to the above updated multi-source data, the incidence and mortality of female breast cancer in China were stable in the past ten years, but the increasing trend in rural area should be noted. The direct medical expenditure of breast cancer treatment per case might decrease, but the population-level economic burden would remain heavy due to population aging.
8.Reliability and validity of assessment tools of Brief ICF Core Sets for Arthroplasty of Knee Osteoarthritis in Peri-operative Period
Boyang YU ; Yanyan YANG ; Ao MA ; Tao LI ; Xiaoxie LIU ; Zhengyang LI ; Yajing DUAN ; Jiaqi LIU ; Yuxiao XIE ; Cui WANG ; Zhen HUANG ; Lining ZHANG ; Xinyi LIU ; Zishan JIA ; Mouwang ZHOU
Chinese Journal of Rehabilitation Theory and Practice 2024;30(9):1053-1059
Objective To investigate the reliability and validity of the assessment tools of Brief ICF Core Sets for Arthroplasty of Knee Osteoarthritis in Perioperative Period(ICSAKOPP). Methods From May,2022 to April,2023,320 patients undergoing knee arthroplasty were selected in Peking University Third Hospital,China-Japan Friendship Hospital,Peking University First Hospital and Chinese PLA General Hospital.Trained assessors used Brief ICSAKOPP to evaluate all enrolled patients before arthroplasty,three days(±one day)after arthroplasty,three weeks(±one week)after arthroplasty,and three months(±one month)after ar-throplasty.Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index(WOMAC)scores were recorded at the same time.Five professionals were asked to score all the items of Brief ICSAKOPP,and the content validity index(CVI)was caculated. Results A total of 64 cases were dropped down.CVI of all the items of the Brief ICSAKOPP were above 0.8,with a av-erage CVI of the scale of 0.938.The Cronbach's α coefficient of the Brief ICSAKOPP was 0.813.There was a moderate correlation(r=0.681,P<0.001)between the overall Brief ICSAKOPP and WOMAC scores,as well as body functional dimension score(r=0.668,P<0.001)and activities and participation dimension score(r=0.657,P<0.001). Conclusion Brief ICSAKOPP is good in content validity,internal consistency reliability and criterion validity.
9.Design and Application of an Artificial Intelligence Follow-up System for Gestational Hypertension
Xinyi HUANG ; Xiaoping ZHOU ; Jianjun GUO ; Rongrong SHENG ; Zhongmin WANG ; Jue WANG ; Nana YANG ; Yin YIN
Journal of Medical Informatics 2024;45(1):89-92
Purpose/Significance Gestational hypertension poses a serious threat to maternal health.Artificial intelligence(AI)fol-low-up and management systems contributes to the health of gestational hypertension.Method/Process The paper establishes an AI fol-low-up system for gestational hypertension based on big data technology and data platforms,including modules such as patient informa-tion management,follow-up data management,follow-up plan management,and patient course management.Result/Conclusion The follow-up system can assist doctors in understanding changes in patients'diseases and meet the hospital's follow-up management re-quirements for gestational hypertension in outpatient clinics.
10.Spatial-temporal graph convolutional neural network for schizophrenia recognition
Xinyi XU ; Bin LI ; Geng ZHU ; Yuxing ZHOU ; Ping LIN ; Xiao'ou LI
Chinese Journal of Medical Physics 2024;41(2):227-232
A spatial-temporal convolutional neural network-based method is proposed for schizophrenia classification.Unlike the mainstream methods that only analyze the temporal frequency features in EEG and ignore the spatial features between brain regions,the model mainly obtains the spatial-frequency features by convolving the adjacency matrix composed of wavelet coherence coefficients between different channels and EEG sequences,and then extracts the temporal-frequency features through one-dimensional temporal convolution.The processed matrix is flattened after multiple convolutions and input to the classification model.Experimental results show that the method has a classification accuracy of 96.32%on the publicly available dataset Zenodo,demonstrating its effectiveness and exhibiting the advantages of fusing temporal-frequency and spatial-frequency features for schizophrenia diagnosis.


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