Objective To construct an optimal prediction model of chickenpox in Urumqi, and to provide reference for formulating the prevention and control strategies of chickenpox. Methods The multivariate autoregressive moving average model (ARIMAX) and random forest model (RF) were established based on the monthly incidence of chickenpox in Urumqi from 2014 to 2018, and the monthly incidence of chickenpox in 2019 was used to test the models and evaluate their prediction effect. The prediction performance of the two models was compared, and the best model was selected to predict the incidence of chickenpox in Urumqi. Results The incidence of chickenpox in Urumqi showed a regular bimodal distribution with obvious seasonality, and it showed a slow upward trend from July 2014 to December 2019. The fitting model was ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,1)₁₂, the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of ARIMAX model training set were 1.29 and 0.95, respectively, and the RMSE and MAE of the test set were 1.88 and 1.44, respectively. The training set RMSE and MAE of RF model were 1.56 and 1.56, respectively, and the test set RMSE and MAE were 4.83 and 3.96, respectively. Conclusion The performance of ARIMAX model is better than that of RF model, which can better predict the incidence trend of chickenpox in Urumqi. It is necessary to optimize the prediction model according to the actual situation and provide scientific guidance for the prevention and control of chickenpox.

Objective: To investigate the availability and use of child safety seats among children aged 0-3 years, so as to provide the basis for improving riding safety for children. Methods: Parents of children aged 0-3 years in Huangpu District, Shanghai Municipality, were recruited using the stratified multistage random sampling method from May to July 2024. Demographic information, family travel patterns, the use of child safety seat and related health beliefs were collected using questionnaire surveys. Factors affecting the use of child safety seats were identified using a multivariable logistic regression model. Results: Totally 514 valid questionnaires were recovered, with an effective rate of 96.98%. The respondents included 122 fathers (23.74%) and 392 mothers (76.26%), with a median age of 34.00 (interquartile range, 5.00) years. There were 446 families equipping with child safety seats, accounting for 86.77%; and 169 families using child safety seats, accounting for 32.88%. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that the parents who had children aged >1-2 years (OR=0.597, 95%CI: 0.366-0.973), travelled 2-4 times per month (OR=0.359, 95%CI: 0.213-0.607) or once per month or less (OR=0.384, 95%CI: 0.202-0.729), and scored high in perceived barrier (OR=0.634, 95%CI: 0.486-0.827) were less likely to use child safety seats; the parents who had children with local household registration (OR=2.506, 95%CI: 1.356-4.633), travelled 5-<10 km (OR=1.887, 95%CI: 1.148-3.101) or ≥10 km (OR=2.319, 95%CI: 1.355-3.967), always wore seat belts (OR=2.342, 95%CI: 1.212-4.524), scored high in perceived susceptibility (OR=1.392, 95%CI: 1.091-1.778) and self-efficacy (OR=1.413, 95%CI: 1.156-1.727) were more likely to use child safety seats. Conclusions Equipping family cars with child safety seats and using them can prevent and reduce traffic injuries among children aged 0-3 years. It is recommended to strengthen publicity to promote the use of child safety seats.

ObjectiveTo observe the effect of gene mutation on the effectiveness of arsenic-containing Chinese herbal compound formulas in the treatment of myelodysplastic syndromes （MDS） of different traditional Chinese medicine （TCM） patterns， so as to provide the basis for the clinical application. MethodsClinical data of 442 MDS patients who were treated with arsenic-containing herbal compound formulas were retrospectively collected， including the baseline demographic and clinical characteristics of the patients. Based on the TCM four examinations， the patients were divided into the spleen-kidney deficiency group as well as the qi-yin deficiency group， and according to the results of the next-generation sequencing （NGS） test， they were divided into the group with and without gene mutation respectively. The influence of gene mutation on the clinical effectiveness of patients with different TCM patterns was analyzed， the baseline demographic and clinical characteristics of the patients with different outcomes of the two TCM patterns were compared， and multivariate Logistic regression analysis was conducted on the influencing factors of the effective rate of MDS patients with gene mutation. ResultsA total of 190 cases were included in the spleen-kidney deficiency group （119 cases with gene mutation） and 43 cases in the qi-yin deficiency group （23 cases with gene mutation）. No statistically significant differences were noted in effectiveness assessment， total effective rate， and total response rate between the spleen-kidney deficiency group and the qi-yin deficiency group （P＞0.05）. In the spleen-kidney deficiency group， the total effective rate of MDS with gene mutation was 65.55% （78/119）， which was lower than 80.28% （57/71） of MDS without gene mutation， with statistical significance （P = 0.033）， while no statistical differences in effectiveness assessment and total response rate were noted （P＞0.05）. In the qi-yin deficiency group， no statistical differences were observed in effectiveness assessment， total effective rate， and total response rate of the patients in with or without gene mutation （P＞0.05）. In the spleen-kidney deficiency group with gene mutation， the rate of complex karyotype （P = 0.031） and the mutation rate of CBL gene （P = 0.032） in the ineffective population were higher than those in the effective population， while the mutation rate of DDX41 gene in the effective population was higher than that in the ineffective population （P = 0.033）. No statistically significant differences were found in other gene mutations， age， gender distribution， number of gene mutations， bone marrow hyperplasia degree， blast cell range， reticular fiber tissue proliferation or not， and prognosis of chromosomal abnormalities between the effective and ineffective populations （P＞0.05）. In the qi-yin deficiency group with gene mutation， no statistically significant differences were found in various items between populations with different outcomes （P＞0.05）. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that complex karyotype， CBL mutation， and DDX41 mutation were independently associated with the effective rate of MDS with spleen-kidney deficiency and gene mutation （P＜0.05）. DDX41 mutation was an independent protective factor in the spleen-kidney deficiency group （OR＞1）， while complex karyotype and CBL mutation were independent risk factors （OR＜1）. ConclusionThe arsenic-containing TCM compound formulas exhibited better effectiveness in MDS with spleen-kidney deficiency pattern without mutation； and in MDS with spleen-kidney deficiency pattern without complex karyotypes， CBL mutation， and with DDX41 mutations. Furthermore， DDX41 mutation was an independent protective factor in the spleen-kidney deficiency group， while complex karyotype and CBL mutation were independent risk factors. In MDS with qi-yin deficiency pattern， gene mutation-related factors showed no significant impact on the effectiveness of arsenic-containing TCM compound formulas.

Based on the etiology and clinical diagnostic criteria of type 2 diabetes mellitus （T2DM）， identification and typing of treatment from the perspective of traditional Chinese and western medicine， the criteria for evaluating the clinical compatibility of traditional Chinese and western medicine in animal models of T2DM were set up. The literature was reviewed to sort out and analyze the existing commonly used modeling methods， summarize the mechanism， compare the advantages and disadvantages， and calculate the consistency between the animal model and the clinical symptoms， syndromes， and indicators from the perspective of traditional Chinese and western medicine. The authors found that spontaneous animal models and high-fat diets combined with multiple low-dose streptozotocin （STZ） induction models were more in line with modern medical pathogenesis of T2DM. However， it fails to form some special syndromes required for traditional Chinese medicine （TCM） research. In addition， there are many methods of combining the etiology and pathogenesis of TCM， which can be divided into three categories： intervention carried out by drug administration， behavioral stimulation， or environmental changes according to TCM， or use of hormones according to clinical evidence and combination of the two methods mentioned above. All of them can successfully establish different types of animal models. However， different methods of establishing syndrome models have their own advantages and disadvantages， and there is no unified standard for the stability and evaluation of syndrome models. As for the clinical consistency criteria of traditional Chinese and western medicine established in this paper， the animal model with 100% consistency has not been calculated due to the conditions of incomplete symptoms and syndromes described in the studies and different selection indicators. Consequently， the establishment of a simple， easy-to-use， and affordable T2DM animal model with both traditional Chinese and western medicine disease characteristics and the improvement of the Chinese and western medicine evaluation system for different evidence types are of great significance for the future development of TCM research on T2DM.

Based on the etiology and clinical diagnostic criteria of type 2 diabetes mellitus （T2DM）， identification and typing of treatment from the perspective of traditional Chinese and western medicine， the criteria for evaluating the clinical compatibility of traditional Chinese and western medicine in animal models of T2DM were set up. The literature was reviewed to sort out and analyze the existing commonly used modeling methods， summarize the mechanism， compare the advantages and disadvantages， and calculate the consistency between the animal model and the clinical symptoms， syndromes， and indicators from the perspective of traditional Chinese and western medicine. The authors found that spontaneous animal models and high-fat diets combined with multiple low-dose streptozotocin （STZ） induction models were more in line with modern medical pathogenesis of T2DM. However， it fails to form some special syndromes required for traditional Chinese medicine （TCM） research. In addition， there are many methods of combining the etiology and pathogenesis of TCM， which can be divided into three categories： intervention carried out by drug administration， behavioral stimulation， or environmental changes according to TCM， or use of hormones according to clinical evidence and combination of the two methods mentioned above. All of them can successfully establish different types of animal models. However， different methods of establishing syndrome models have their own advantages and disadvantages， and there is no unified standard for the stability and evaluation of syndrome models. As for the clinical consistency criteria of traditional Chinese and western medicine established in this paper， the animal model with 100% consistency has not been calculated due to the conditions of incomplete symptoms and syndromes described in the studies and different selection indicators. Consequently， the establishment of a simple， easy-to-use， and affordable T2DM animal model with both traditional Chinese and western medicine disease characteristics and the improvement of the Chinese and western medicine evaluation system for different evidence types are of great significance for the future development of TCM research on T2DM.

ObjectiveMyelodysplastic syndromes （MDS） is a group of clonal hematopoietic stem cell disorders，and this study aims to investigate the expression of hypoxia-inducible factor-1α（HIF-1α） in the bone marrow cells of patients with MDS and its correlation with the clinical features of MDS，the therapeutic efficacy of arsenic-containing Chineseherbal compound，and the survival prognosis. MethodAccording to the inclusion and exclusion criteria，27 MDS patients treated with arsenic-containing Chinese herbal compound in the Department of Hematology，Xiyuan Hospital，China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences from January 2022 to September 2022 were included，and their bone marrow samples were collected by myelotomy. HIF-1α expression level in bone marrow cells was detected by real-time polymerase chain reaction （PCR） to analyze its correlation with clinical features，and logistic and Cox regression was used to analyze the risk factors affecting the efficacy and prognostic survival of MDS patients. ResultThe HIF-1α mRNA expression level was lower in bone marrow cells of MDS patients than in healthy subjects. HIF-1α was positively correlated with the degree of myelodysplasia（r=0.384，P<0.05） and bone marrow granulocytic system%（G%）（r=0.560，P<0.01）. Logistic regression showed that HIF-1α was a risk factor for the prognosis in the follow-up of the efficacy of treatment（P<0.05）and Cox regression showed that HIF-1α was an independent factor affecting the survival prognosis of MDS patients ［odds ratio（OR）=398.968，95% confidence interval（CI）（1.281，116 858.743），P<0.05］. ConclusionThe level of HIF-1α expression in bone marrow cells of MDS patients was closely related to the degree of clinical myelodysplasia and G%，and HIF-1α was a risk factor for the efficacy for and survival prognosis of MDS patients.

Objective To explore the role of retinol binding protein 7(RBP7)in breast cancer by bioinformatics.Methods R sofrware was used to explore the differential expression of the RBP7 gene in breast cancer by the cancer genome atlas(TCGA)dataset and the human protein atlas(HPA).Relationship between RBP7 and clinical data of breast cancer was evaluated by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves.Correlation between high and low RBP7 expression groups and different tumor-infiltrating immune cells(TIICs)were analyzed based on the TCGA database.Gene set enrichment analysis(GSEA)was used to assess the distribute trends of RBP7 in gene tables sorted by phenotypic relatedness.Results RBP7 mRNA expression levels were down-regulated in breast cancer compared to paracancerous tissues,which were expressed in the nucleus.ROC curve analysis showed that the area under curve(AUC)of RBP7 for the diagnosis of breast cancer was 0.943(95%CI:0.926～0.960),and the best cut-off value of RBP7 was 6.29,with a sensitivity and specificity of 82.32%and 93.69%,respectively.Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that low expression of RBP7 was associated with overall survival rate in breast cancer patients(HR=0.68,95%CI:0.49～0.93,P=0.017),indicating that RBP7 was an independent risk factor for breast cancer.Spearman correlation showed that RBP7 was positively associated with pDC cells and NK cells(r=0.290,0.253,all P<0.05),and negatively associated with Th2 cells(r=-0.217,P<0.05)in breast cancer.GSEA showed that RBP7 was enriched in pathways such as adipogenesis,ribosome,peptiden ligand binding receptors,and calcium signaling pathway(all P<0.001).Conclusion RBP7 affects the occurrence and development of breast cancer,which may be a potential biomarker and therapeutic target for breast cancer.

Gastric cancer(GC)is one of the most common tumors and the fourth leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide.Due to the lack of specific signs in early GC,most cases are diagnosed at an advanced stage,often accompanied by infiltration and distant metastasis.Although chemotherapy is the most commonly used treatment for gastric cancer,due to the emergence of drug resistance,many patients will still relapse after chemo-therapy,resulting in poor prognosis.Exosome(EXOs)in the Tumor micro environment(TME)can participate in intercellular communication and play an important role in GC distant metastasis and drug resistance.At present,the detailed mechanism of GC distant metastasis and drug resistance is still unclear.Identifying the exosome-induced mechanism involved in GC distant metastasis and drug resistance can help us find more reliable treatment methods for GC metastasis and drug resistance.This article reviews the mechanism of exosome in GC distant metastasis and drug resistance,in order to provide help for the diagnosis,treatment and research of GC.

BACKGROUND:Studies have shown that atorvastatin can up-regulate the expression of heme oxygenase-1 and enhance the anti-inflammation and anti-oxidative damage ability of cells.However,whether atorvastatin can regulate macrophage polarization,inhibit inflammation and reduce cholesterol accumulation by inducing heme oxygenase-1 expression remains unclear. OBJECTIVE:To investigate the effect of atorvastatin on polarization,inflammation and cholesterol content of oxidized low-density lipoprotein stimulated RAW264.7 macrophages by inducing heme oxygenase-1 expression and its related mechanism. METHODS:Firstly,RAW264.7 cells were randomly divided into six groups and incubated with different concentrations of atorvastatin for 24 hours.The expression of heme oxygenase-1 protein and cell activity were detected to explore the optimal dose of atorvastatin for subsequent studies.RAW264.7 cells were randomly divided into control group,atorvastatin group and heme oxygenase-1 inhibition group.Cells were preincubated with pure medium,atorvastatin 20 μmol/L and atorvastatin 20 μmol/L + zinc protoporphyrin IX 10 μmol/L for 24 hours,and then oxidized low-density lipoprotein 50 mg/L was added for 48 hours.The polarization of macrophages was detected by flow cytometry.The secretion of inflammatory factors such as transforming growth factor β,interleukin 10,interleukin 1β,and tumor necrosis factor α was detected by ELISA.The expression levels of heme oxygenase-1,LC3II,LC3I,P62,PPARγ and ABCA1 were detected by western blot assay.The intracellular cholesterol content was measured with the oxidose method and the accumulation degree of intracellular lipid droplets was evaluated by oil red O staining. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)Atorvastatin could induce the expression of heme oxygenase-1 protein in macrophages in a dose-dependent manner.(2)Oxidized low-density lipoprotein could induce macrophages to polarize towards M1,secrete proinflammatory factors,and increase the accumulation of intracellular cholesterol.(3)Compared with the control group,the heme oxygenase-1 protein expression of macrophages was increased after atorvastatin intervention,and the cells turned to M2-type polarization and mainly secreted anti-inflammatory factors such as transforming growth factor-β and interleukin-10.PPARγ,ABCA1,LC3II/I and other signal molecules reflecting cholesterol efflux and autophagy increased,and the contents of intracellular cholesterol and lipid droplets decreased significantly(P<0.05).(4)The heme oxygenase-1 inhibition group treated with zinc protoporphyrin IX significantly reversed the above changes in the atorvastatin group.(5)The results have shown that atorvastatin may promote the polarization of macrophages stimulated by oxidized low-density lipoprotein to M2 type and inhibit inflammation by up-regulating the expression of heme oxygenase-1 and by up-regulating PPARγ/ABCA1 signaling pathway and enhancing autophagy.Atorvastatin can increase the outflow of intracellular cholesterol and reduce the accumulation of intracellular lipids.

BACKGROUND:Due to the complex physiological environment of the human body,a wide variety of simulated physiological fluids have been chosen for the current degradation experiments.Therefore,it is of great interest to analyze the degradation behavior of Mg-Zn-Ca alloys in different simulated body fluid environments. OBJECTIVE:To investigate the degradation process and property changes of Mg-Zn-Ca alloy in different simulated body fluids,and to clarify the influence of Ca content and simulated body fluid type on the alloy. METHODS:Mg-Zn-Ca alloys with calcium content of 0.2%,0.5%and 1%were prepared by melting extrusion molding process and were named Mg-Zn-0.2Ca,Mg-Zn-0.5Ca and Mg-Zn-1Ca alloys in turn,with Mg-Zn alloy as the control.The prepared alloys were placed into three simulated body liquids(physiological saline,PBS and Hank's solution),and the morphology,compositional changes,mass loss,pH value and mechanical properties were characterized and analyzed during the degradation. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)With the extension of degradation time,a large number of nanoscale lamellae and columnar structures were generated on the surface of the degraded alloy,and the main components were MgO and Mg(OH)2.The degradation rate of the four kinds of alloys in physiological saline was the fastest,and that in Hank's solution was the slowest.The degradation rate in physiological saline was as follows:Mg-Zn