1.Development of a nomogram-based risk prediction model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease incidence in community-dwelling population aged 40 years and above in Shanghai
Yixuan ZHANG ; Yiling WU ; Jinxin ZANG ; Xuyan SU ; Xin YIN ; Jing LI ; Wei LUO ; Minjun YU ; Wei WANG ; Qi ZHAO ; Qin WANG ; Genming ZHAO ; Yonggen JIANG ; Na WANG
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(8):669-675
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			ObjectiveTo develop a nomogram-based risk prediction model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) incidence among the community-dwelling population aged 40 years old and above, so as to provide targeted references for the screening and prevention of COPD. MethodsBased on a natural population cohort in suburban Shanghai, a total of 3 381 randomly selected participants aged ≥40 years underwent pulmonary function tests between July and October 2021. Cox stepwise regression analysis was used to develop overall and gender-specific risk prediction models, along with the construction of corresponding risk nomograms. Model predictive performance was evaluated using the C-indice, area under the curve (AUC) values, and Brier score. Stability was assessed through 10-fold cross-validation and sensitivity analysis. ResultsA total of 3 019 participants were included, with a median follow-up duration of 4.6 years. The COPD incidence density was 17.22 per 1 000 person-years, significantly higher in males (32.04/1 000 person-years) than that in females (7.38/1 000 person-years) (P<0.001). The overall risk prediction model included the variables such as gender, age, education level, BMI, smoking, passive smoking, and respiratory comorbidities. The male-specific model incorporated the variables such as age, BMI, respiratory comorbidities, and smoking, while the female-specific model included age, marital status, respiratory comorbidities, and pulmonary tuberculosis history. The C-indices for the overall, male-specific, and female-specific models were 0.829, 0.749, and 0.807, respectively. The 5-year AUC values were 0.785, 0.658, and 0.811, with Brier scores of 0.103, 0.176, and 0.059, respectively. Both 10-fold cross-validated C-indices and sensitivity analysis (excluding participants with a follow-up duration of <6 months) yielded C-indices were above 0.740. ConclusionThis study developed concise and practical overall and gender-specific COPD risk prediction models and corresponding nomograms. The models demonstrated robust performance in predicting COPD incidence, providing a valuable reference for identifying high-risk populations and formulating targeted screening and personalized management strategies. 
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
2.Trends in disease burden due to childhood asthma from 1990 to 2021 and future projections in China
Chinese Journal of School Health 2025;46(4):573-578
		                        		
		                        			Objective:
		                        			To investigate the trends in disease burden due to childhood asthma in China from 1990 to 2021 and to project the disease burden from 2022 to 2035, so as to provide insights into formulation of the control interventions for childhood asthma in China.
		                        		
		                        			Methods:
		                        			The prevalent case, agestandard prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and agestandard DALYs rate of children with asthma at ages of 0 to 14 years and their 95% uncertainty interval (UI) in China from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. The temporal trends in the disease burden of childhood asthma were evaluated with estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and its 95% confidence interval (CI), and the disease burden due to asthma was projected among children at ages of 0 to 14 years in China using a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model from 2022 to 2035.
		                        		
		                        			Results:
		                        			There were 9.368 3 million (95%UI=6.410 7 million to 14.026 1 million) prevalent cases of asthma among children at ages of 0 to 14 years in China in 2021, contributing to 0.387 9 million (95%UI=0.216 1 million to 0.668 8 million) DALYs loss. The prevalent cases and DALYs of asthma decreased by 37.28% and 52.55% among children at ages of 0 to 14 years in China in 2021 compared with 1990, and the agestandardized prevalence [EAPC=-0.70%, 95%CI=-1.26% to -0.13%)] and DALY rates [EAPC=-1.71%, 95%CI=-2.32% to -1.10%)] also appeared a tendency towards a decline. From 1990 to 2021, the prevalent cases, prevalence, DALYs and DALYs rate of asthma were all higher among male children than among female children, and the disease burden of asthma was higher among children at ages of 5 to 9 years than at other age groups. BAPC model predicted a decline in both prevalent cases and DALYs of asthma among children at ages of 0 to 14 years in China from 2022 to 2035, with 6.759 6 million prevalent cases and DALYs of 0.228 4 million personyears in 2035, while the prevalence and DALYs rates were projected to rise to 5 143.35/105 and 173.75/105 in 2035.
		                        		
		                        			Conclusions
		                        			Despite a reduction in the disease burden of asthma among children at ages of 0 to 14 years in China from 1990 to 2021, the prevalence remained high. The disease burden due to asthma is projected to appear a decline among children at ages of 0 to 14 years in China from 2022 to 2035; however, the prevalence and DALYs rates still rise. Intensified control measures and targeted interventions are required to reduce the disease burden of childhood asthma.
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
3.Association Between Caffeine Intake and Stool Frequency- or Consistency-Defined Constipation:Data From the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2005-2010
Yi LI ; Yi-Tong ZANG ; Wei-Dong TONG
Journal of Neurogastroenterology and Motility 2025;31(2):256-266
		                        		
		                        			 Background/Aims:
		                        			The association between caffeine intake and constipation remains inconclusive. This study aims to investigate whether caffeine intake is associated with constipation. 
		                        		
		                        			Methods:
		                        			This cross-sectional study included 13 941 adults from the 2005-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The weighted logistic regression analyses were exerted to evaluate the association between caffeine intake and constipation. Besides, stratified analyses and interaction tests were conducted to determine the potential modifying factors. 
		                        		
		                        			Results:
		                        			After adjusting for confounders, increased caffeine intake by 100 mg was not associated with constipation, as defined by stool frequency (OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.94-1.10) or stool consistency (OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.98-1.05). Subgroup analyses showed that cholesterol intake modified the relationship between increased caffeine by 100 mg and stool frequency-defined constipation (P for interaction = 0.037). Each 100 mg increase in caffeine intake was associated with a 20% decreased risk of constipation defined by stool frequency in participants who consumed high cholesterol (OR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.64-1.00), but no association in the other 2 cholesterol level groups. Furthermore, the association between caffeine intake and stool consistency-defined constipation was not found in different cholesterol groups. 
		                        		
		                        			Conclusions
		                        			Caffeine consumption is not associated with stool frequency or consistency-defined constipation. Nevertheless, increased caffeine intake may decrease the risk of constipation (defined by stool frequency) among participants in the high-cholesterol intake group. 
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
4.Association Between Caffeine Intake and Stool Frequency- or Consistency-Defined Constipation:Data From the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2005-2010
Yi LI ; Yi-Tong ZANG ; Wei-Dong TONG
Journal of Neurogastroenterology and Motility 2025;31(2):256-266
		                        		
		                        			 Background/Aims:
		                        			The association between caffeine intake and constipation remains inconclusive. This study aims to investigate whether caffeine intake is associated with constipation. 
		                        		
		                        			Methods:
		                        			This cross-sectional study included 13 941 adults from the 2005-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The weighted logistic regression analyses were exerted to evaluate the association between caffeine intake and constipation. Besides, stratified analyses and interaction tests were conducted to determine the potential modifying factors. 
		                        		
		                        			Results:
		                        			After adjusting for confounders, increased caffeine intake by 100 mg was not associated with constipation, as defined by stool frequency (OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.94-1.10) or stool consistency (OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.98-1.05). Subgroup analyses showed that cholesterol intake modified the relationship between increased caffeine by 100 mg and stool frequency-defined constipation (P for interaction = 0.037). Each 100 mg increase in caffeine intake was associated with a 20% decreased risk of constipation defined by stool frequency in participants who consumed high cholesterol (OR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.64-1.00), but no association in the other 2 cholesterol level groups. Furthermore, the association between caffeine intake and stool consistency-defined constipation was not found in different cholesterol groups. 
		                        		
		                        			Conclusions
		                        			Caffeine consumption is not associated with stool frequency or consistency-defined constipation. Nevertheless, increased caffeine intake may decrease the risk of constipation (defined by stool frequency) among participants in the high-cholesterol intake group. 
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
5.Association Between Caffeine Intake and Stool Frequency- or Consistency-Defined Constipation:Data From the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2005-2010
Yi LI ; Yi-Tong ZANG ; Wei-Dong TONG
Journal of Neurogastroenterology and Motility 2025;31(2):256-266
		                        		
		                        			 Background/Aims:
		                        			The association between caffeine intake and constipation remains inconclusive. This study aims to investigate whether caffeine intake is associated with constipation. 
		                        		
		                        			Methods:
		                        			This cross-sectional study included 13 941 adults from the 2005-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The weighted logistic regression analyses were exerted to evaluate the association between caffeine intake and constipation. Besides, stratified analyses and interaction tests were conducted to determine the potential modifying factors. 
		                        		
		                        			Results:
		                        			After adjusting for confounders, increased caffeine intake by 100 mg was not associated with constipation, as defined by stool frequency (OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.94-1.10) or stool consistency (OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.98-1.05). Subgroup analyses showed that cholesterol intake modified the relationship between increased caffeine by 100 mg and stool frequency-defined constipation (P for interaction = 0.037). Each 100 mg increase in caffeine intake was associated with a 20% decreased risk of constipation defined by stool frequency in participants who consumed high cholesterol (OR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.64-1.00), but no association in the other 2 cholesterol level groups. Furthermore, the association between caffeine intake and stool consistency-defined constipation was not found in different cholesterol groups. 
		                        		
		                        			Conclusions
		                        			Caffeine consumption is not associated with stool frequency or consistency-defined constipation. Nevertheless, increased caffeine intake may decrease the risk of constipation (defined by stool frequency) among participants in the high-cholesterol intake group. 
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
6.Effect of volatile oil of Ligusticum chuanxiong on transdermal properties and cytotoxicity of triptolide in vitro
Cheng JIANG ; Zhenzhong ZANG ; Lihua CHEN ; Haiting ZHU ; Shihua FU ; Weifeng ZHU ; Wenting WU ; Wei SHI ; Yongmei GUAN
China Pharmacy 2024;35(4):413-418
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			OBJECTIVE To explore the effect of volatile oil of Ligusticum chuanxiong on the transdermal properties and cytotoxicity of triptolide in vitro. METHODS The chemical constituents of the volatile oil of L. chuanxiong were analyzed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The lower abdominal skin of KM mice was separated and divided into triptolide group, triptolide in compatibility with volatile oil of L. chuanxiong groups at 1∶10, 1∶50, 1∶100 (hereinafter referred to as “compatibility 1∶10”“compatibility 1∶50”“compatibility 1∶100” groups). After the skin of mice in each group was fully exposed to 0.2 g of the corresponding cream for 24 h, the cumulative transdermal dose (Qn) of triptolide in the receiving solution of each group was determined by high-performance liquid chromatography, and the transdermal absorption rate (Jss) was calculated. Human immortalized keratinocytes (HaCat) were used as a model, the CCK-8 method was used to detect the cell survival rate of different concentrations of the volatile oil of L. chuanxiong and triptolide before and after compatibility. RESULTS A total of 62 chemical constituents of the volatile oil of L. chuanxiong were identified, including Z-ligustilide, senkyunolide, and β-selinene. The Qn (P< 0.01) and Jss of triptolide increased within 24 h in the compatibility 1∶10 and 1∶50 groups, while the Qn (P<0.05) and Jss decreased in the compatibility 1∶100 group as compared with the triptolide group. Compared with the triptolide group, the cell survival rate of HaCat was significantly increased in the compatibility 1∶10 and 1∶50 groups when the triptolide concentrations were 36, 72 and 144 ng/mL (P<0.05 or P<0.01); while the cell survival rate of HaCat was decreased in the compatibility 1∶100 group, but the difference was not statistically significant (P>0.05). CONCLUSIONS When the compatibility ratio of triptolide and volatile oil of L. chuanxiong was 1∶10 or 1∶50, it can promote the transdermal absorption of triptolide and reduce the cytotoxicity of triptolide to HaCat.
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
7.Research advances of myeloid-derived suppressor cells mediated by programmed death-1/programmed death-ligand 1 pathway in sepsis-induced immunosuppression
Yifei XU ; Xuefeng ZANG ; Wei CHEN
Chinese Critical Care Medicine 2024;36(3):332-336
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			Sepsis is a life-threatening organ dysfunction due to dysregulation of the body's response to infection. The immunosuppressive phase of sepsis is also an important cause of high morbidity and mortality in patients with advanced sepsis. Myeloid-derived suppressor cell (MDSC), as a heterogeneous population of Gr1 +CD11b + immature cells, play a pivotal role in the immune process of advanced sepsis together with programmed death-1 (PD-1) and programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) with immunosuppressive properties. This review summarized the research progress of PD-1/PD-L1 pathway-mediated mechanism of MDSC in septic immunosuppression in recent years. The mechanism of action of PD-1/PD-L1 pathway in the immunosuppressive stage, the effects of PD-1/PD-L1 pathway on the "dual-signaling" model of MDSC through the signaling pathway and cytokines, as well as the time course of PD-1/PD-L1 pathway mediation in sepsis were described.
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
8.Clinical characteristics and prognosis of male dermatomyositis patients with positive anti-melanoma differentiation associated gene 5 antibody
Yitian SHI ; Fenghong YUAN ; Ting LIU ; Wenfeng TAN ; Ju LI ; Min WU ; Zhanyun DA ; Hua WEI ; Lei ZHOU ; Songlou YIN ; Jian WU ; Yan LU ; Dinglei SU ; Zhichun LIU ; Lin LIU ; Longxin MA ; Xiaoyan XU ; Yinshan ZANG ; Huijie LIU ; Tianli REN
Chinese Journal of Rheumatology 2024;28(1):44-49
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			Objective:To investigate the clinical features and prognosis of male with anti-melanoma differentiation-associated gene 5 (MDA5) autoantibody.Methods:The clinical data of 246 patients with DM and anti-MDA5 autoantibodies hospitalized by Jiangsu Myositis Cooperation Group from 2017 to 2020 were collected and retrospectively analyzed. Chi-square test was performed to compared between counting data groups; Quantitative data were expressed by M ( Q1, Q3), and rank sum test was used for comparison between groups; Single factor survival analysis was performed by Kaplan-Meier method and Log rank test; Cox regression analysis were used for multivariate survival analysis. Results:①The male group had a higher proportion of rash at the sun exposure area [67.1%(47/70) vs 52.8%(93/176), χ2=4.18, P=0.041] and V-sign [50.0%(35/70) vs 30.7%(54/176), χ2=8.09, P=0.004] than the female group. The male group had higher levels of creatine kinase [112(18, 981)U/L vs 57 (13.6, 1 433)U/L, Z=-3.50, P<0.001] and ferritin [1 500 (166, 32 716)ng/ml vs 569 (18, 14 839)ng/ml, Z=-5.85, P<0.001] than the female group. The proportion of ILD [40.0%(28/70) vs 59.7%(105/176), χ2=7.82, P=0.020] patients and the red blood cell sedimentation rate[31.0(4.0, 101.5)mm/1 h vs 43.4(5.0, 126.5)mm/1 h, Z=-2.22, P=0.026] in the male group was lower than that of the female group, but the proportion of rapidly progressive interstitial lung disease (PR-ILD) [47.1%(33/70) vs 31.3%(55/176), χ2=5.51, P=0.019] was higher than that of the female group. ②In male patients with positive anti-MDA5 antibodies,the death group had a shorter course of disease[1.0(1.0, 3.0) month vs 2.5(0.5,84) month, Z=-3.07, P=0.002], the incidence of arthritis [16.7%(4/24) vs 42.2%(19/45), χ2=4.60, P=0.032] were low than those in survival group,while aspartate aminotransferase (AST)[64(22.1, 565)U/L vs 51(14,601)U/L, Z=-2.42, P=0.016], lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) [485(24,1 464)U/L vs 352(170, 1 213)U/L, Z=-3.38, P=0.001], C-reactive protein (CRP) [11.6(2.9, 61.7) mg/L vs 4.95(0.6, 86.4) mg/L, Z=-1.96, P=0.050], and ferritin levels [2 000(681, 7 676) vs 1 125 (166, 32 716)ng/ml, Z=-3.18, P=0.001] were higher than those in the survival group, and RP-ILD [95.8%(23/24) vs 22.2%(10/45), χ2=33.99, P<0.001] occurred at a significantly higher rate. ③Cox regression analysis indicated that the course of disease LDH level, and RP-ILD were related factors for the prognosis of male anti-MDA5 antibodies [ HR (95% CI)=0.203(0.077, 0.534), P=0.001; HR (95% CI)=1.002(1.001, 1.004), P=0.003; HR (95% CI)=95.674 (10.872, 841.904), P<0.001]. Conclusion:The clinical manifestations of male anti-MDA5 antibody-positive patients are different from those of female. The incidence of ILD is low, but the proportion of PR-ILD is high. The course of disease, serum LDH level, and RP-ILD are prognostic factors of male anti-MDA5 antibody-positive patients.
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
9.Biofluid biomarkers of conversion to α-synucleinopathy in isolated rapid-eye-movement sleep behavior disorder
Chinese Journal of Laboratory Medicine 2024;47(2):187-191
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			Isolated rapid-eye-movement sleep behavior disorder (iRBD) is considered to be a prodromal stage of α-synucleinopathies, providing an important period for investigating biomarkers of conversion risk and potentially disease-modifying intervention. Many previous studies investigating biomarkers in patients with iRBD have focused on different domains including clinical, body fluid and imaging. Due to their direct response to the pathological changes of brain and advantaged accessibility, body fluid markers have become promising potential biomarkers. These studies have involved different molecules related to different pathogenic mechanisms with poor consistency of results. In this paper, a review of previous work on body fluid markers in patients with iRBD is presented.
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
10.Efficacy of different questionnaires in screening COPD in the communities of Songjiang District, Shanghai
Xin YIN ; Yiling WU ; Shanshan HOU ; Jing LI ; Wei LUO ; Minjun YU ; Jinxin ZANG ; Wei WANG ; Xuyan SU ; Qi ZHAO ; Yinfeng ZHU ; Genming ZHAO ; Yonggen JIANG ; Qingwu JIANG ; Na WANG
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2024;36(4):386-392
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			ObjectiveTo evaluate the efficacy of three screening questionnaires for COPD in the community residents of Songjiang District, Shanghai, and to provide a basis for selecting COPD screening questionnaire and process that are more suitable. MethodsCommunity residents aged 40 years or over were randomly selected from the Shanghai Suburban Adult Cohort and Biobank for the study with screening questionnaires and spirometry. Questionnaires included the COPD screening questionnaire (COPD-SQ), the COPD population screener (COPD-PS) and the revised COPD diagnostic questionnaire (revised-CDQ). Evaluation of the efficacy of these questionnaires was based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the subjects. DeLong test was used to compare the accuracy of different questionnaires; Z test was used to compare the accuracy of different cut-off values for the same questionnaire. ResultsAmong 3 184 community residents, a total of 259 (8.1%) COPD patients were screened by spirometry. AUC values of these 3 screening questionnaires were >0.7 indicating that they were reliable COPD screening tools. The sensitivity and specificity of the questionnaires at the recommended cut-off values were COPD-SQ (63.7% and 72.2%), COPD-PS (12.0% and 96.1%), and revised CDQ (78.8% and 52.7%), with the COPD-SQ having the highest screening accuracy (AUC=0.754). The optimal and recommended cut-off values for the three questionnaires differed in this population, but the difference in accuracy was statistically significant only for COPD-PS. The optimal cut-off values for the three questionnaires differed between male and female, and the sensitivity and accuracy of COPD-SQ and COPD-PS improved when lower cut-off values were used for women. The AUC was greater when two questionnaires were utilized simultaneously for screening, but the differences were not statistically significant. ConclusionThe COPD-SQ is recommended for primary COPD screening; a lower cut-off value for women should be considered. The COPD screening questionnaire needs to be further improved for the early diagnosis and treatment of COPD patients. 
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
            

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