1.Effect of the nitroglycerin-controlled low central venous pressure technique on cerebral metabolic markers and cerebral blood oxygen saturation in patients undergoing laparoscopic hepatectomy for liver cancer
Bo WANG ; Xia FU ; Conghai LYU ; Chunfang YIN ; Qiyuan WU
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2025;41(3):478-484
ObjectiveTo investigate the effect of the nitroglycerin-controlled low central venous pressure (CLCVP) technique on brain metabolic markers and cerebral blood oxygen saturation in patients undergoing laparoscopic hepatectomy for liver cancer, and to reduce the risk of neurological complications. MethodsA total of 105 patients who underwent elective laparoscopic hepatectomy for liver cancer in Haikou Hospital Affiliated to Xiangya Hospital of Central South University from April 2020 to May 2023 were enrolled and randomly divided into CLCVP group with 54 patients and non-CLCVP group with 51 patients. The patients in the CLCVP group were treated with the nitroglycerin CLCVP technique during surgery, while those in the non-CLCVP group were given conventional surgical treatment. The two groups were compared in terms of the following indicators: perioperative indicators; hemodynamic parameters and cerebral oxygen metabolism before anesthesia induction (T0), at 5 minutes after anesthesia induction (T1), at 5 minutes after the beginning of liver parenchyma dissection (T2), at 5 minutes after the end of hepatectomy (T3), and immediately after the end of surgery (T4); the changes in liver function parameters after surgery; the incidence rate of adverse reactions. The independent-samples t test was used for comparison of continuous data between two groups, and the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups; the analysis of variance with repeated measures was used for comparison between multiple time points. ResultsCompared with the non-CLCVP group, the CLCVP group had significantly lower intraoperative blood loss and intraoperative fluid infusion volume (t=5.408 and 7.220, both P<0.05), while there were no significant differences between the two groups in time of operation, anesthesia time, extubation time, resuscitation time and intraoperative urine volume (all P>0.05). Compared with the data at T0, both groups had significant reductions in mean arterial pressure, heart rate, and central venous pressure during surgery (all P<0.05), and compared with the non-CLCVP group, the CLCVP group had significantly lower mean arterial pressure and central venous pressure (P<0.05) and a significantly higher heart rate (P<0.05) at T2 and T3. Compared with the data at T0, both groups had a significant reduction in Ca-jvDO2 at T2 — T4 time points (all P<0.05), while there was no significant difference in Ca-jvDO2 between the two groups at each time point (all P>0.05). Compared with the data at T0, the CLCVP group had a significant reduction in rSO2 at T2 — T4 time points (all P<0.05), and the CLCVP group had a significantly lower level of rSO2 than the non-CLCVP group at T2 — T3 time points (both P<0.05); there were no significant changes in CERO2 and Djv-aBL in either group at each time point (all P>0.05). At 3 and 7 days after surgery, both groups had significant increases in the liver function parameters of aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and total bilirubin (TBil) (all P<0.05), and the CLCVP group had significantly lower levels of AST and ALT than the non-CLCVP group (all P<0.05); there was no significant difference in TBil between the two groups at each time point (all P>0.05). There was no significant difference in the incidence rate of perioperative complications between the two groups (χ2=0.729, P=0.394). ConclusionThe application of the nitroglycerin CLCVP technique in laparoscopic hepatectomy for liver cancer can reduce the amount of intraoperative blood loss in patients, but it is necessary to further enhance the monitoring of cerebral blood oxygen saturation during surgery, so as to reduce the risk of neurological complications as much as possible.
2.The influence of adopting CBL teaching based on real patients of otorhinolaryngology on the clinical practice ability of general practice
Chunfang WU ; Yanfang WANG ; Fu LI ; Yikai YAO ; Yaqing GUO ; Ying CHEN ; Bo CHEN
Modern Hospital 2024;24(1):120-122
Objective In order to explore the influence and effect of case teaching method based on real patients in oto-rhinolaryngology on clinical practice ability of general practice.Methods 96 trainees of general practice in otolaryngology de-partment from January 2018 to January 2021 were randomly divided into two groups:a CBL group and a control group.In the CBL group,CBL teaching method was adopted based on real patients in Otorhinolaryngology.Conventional teaching method was used in the control group.Results The theoretical scores of written test and the examination of clinical skill operation scores of the CBL group and the control group were analyzed.There was significant difference between the two groups(P<0.05).The students in CBL group were more satisfied with clinical thinking ability,analysis and problem solving ability,active learning abil-ity,learning efficiency,teacher-student interaction,doctor-patient communication ability and consultation skills than the control group.There was significant difference between the two groups(P<0.05).Conclusion The CBL teaching method can obvi-ously improve the learning enthusiasm and clinical practice ability of general resident training doctors.The teaching quality has been significantly improved.It is of great value to cultivate excellent general practitioners.
3.Application of machine learning model based on XGBoost algorithm in early prediction of patients with acute severe pancreatitis.
Xin GAO ; Jiaxi LIN ; Airong WU ; Huiyuan GU ; Xiaolin LIU ; Minyue YIN ; Zhirun ZHOU ; Rufa ZHANG ; Chunfang XU ; Jinzhou ZHU
Chinese Critical Care Medicine 2023;35(4):421-426
OBJECTIVE:
To establish a machine learning model based on extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm for early prediction of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), and explore its predictive efficiency.
METHODS:
A retrospective cohort study was conducted. The patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) who admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, the Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University and Changshu Hospital Affiliated to Soochow University from January 1, 2020 to December 31, 2021 were enrolled. Demography information, etiology, past history, and clinical indicators and imaging data within 48 hours of admission were collected according to the medical record system and image system, and the modified CT severity index (MCTSI), Ranson score, bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) and acute pancreatitis risk score (SABP) were calculated. The data sets of the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University and Changshu Hospital Affiliated to Soochow University were randomly divided into training set and validation set according to 8 : 2. Based on XGBoost algorithm, the SAP prediction model was constructed on the basis of hyperparameter adjustment by 5-fold cross validation and loss function. The data set of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University was served as independent test set. The predictive efficacy of the XGBoost model was evaluated by drawing the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve), and compared it with the traditional AP related severity score; variable importance ranking diagram and Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) diagram were drawn to visually explain the model.
RESULTS:
A total of 1 183 AP patients were enrolled finally, of which 129 (10.9%) developed SAP. Among the patients from the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University and Changshu Hospital Affiliated to Soochow University, there were 786 patients in the training set and 197 in the validation set; 200 patients from the Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University were used as the test set. Analysis of all three datasets showed that patients who advanced to SAP exhibited pathological manifestation such as abnormal respiratory function, coagulation function, liver and kidney function, and lipid metabolism. Based on the XGBoost algorithm, an SAP prediction model was constructed, and ROC curve analysis showed that the accuracy for prediction of SAP reached 0.830, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.927, which was significantly improved compared with the traditional scoring systems including MCTSI, Ranson, BISAP and SABP, the accuracy was 0.610, 0.690, 0.763, 0.625, and the AUC was 0.689, 0.631, 0.875, and 0.770, respectively. The feature importance analysis based on the XGBoost model showed that the top ten items ranked by the importance of model features were admission pleural effusion (0.119), albumin (Alb, 0.049), triglycerides (TG, 0.036), Ca2+ (0.034), prothrombin time (PT, 0.031), systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS, 0.031), C-reactive protein (CRP, 0.031), platelet count (PLT, 0.030), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH, 0.029), and alkaline phosphatase (ALP, 0.028). The above indicators were of great significance for the XGBoost model to predict SAP. The SHAP contribution analysis based on the XGBoost model showed that the risk of SAP increased significantly when patients had pleural effusion and decreased Alb.
CONCLUSIONS
A SAP prediction scoring system was established based on the machine automatic learning XGBoost algorithm, which can predict the SAP risk of patients within 48 hours of admission with good accuracy.
Humans
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Pancreatitis
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Acute Disease
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Retrospective Studies
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Hospitalization
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Algorithms
4.Analysis of the current status of cancer incidence and mortality in Shanghai,2017 and trends of 2002-2017
Kai GU ; Yi PANG ; Chunxiao WU ; Chunfang WANG ; Liang SHI ; Yongmei XIANG ; Yangming GONG ; Peng PENG ; Jianming DOU ; Mengyin WU ; Xiaocong ZHANG ; Ganling DING ; Jianying YAN ; Yan SHI ; Chen FU
Tumor 2023;43(4):241-256
Background and purpose:The Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention provides annual updates on cancer occurrence and trends in Shanghai.This study aimed to investigate the cancer incidence and mortality in 201 7 and their trends from 2002 to 2017 in Shanghai. Methods:Data of new cancer diagnoses and deaths from 2002 to 2017 were obtained from the Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention population-based cancer registry and Vital Statistics System.Cancer incidence and mortality stratified by year of diagnosis or death,gender and age group were analyzed.Number,proportion,crude rate,age-specific rate,age-standardized rate and others were calculated.The number,proportion and rates of common cancers in different groups were also calculated.Trends in age-standardized rate of incidence and death rates for all cancers combined and for the common cancer types by gender were estimated by joinpoint analysis and characterized by the annual percent change(APC)and average annual percent change(AAPC).Segi's 1960 world standard population was used for calculating age-standardized incidence and mortality. Results:The new cancer cases and deaths were 79 378 and 37 186 in Shanghai in 2017.The crude rate of incidence was 546.55/105,and the age-standardized rate was 246.31/105.The age-standardized rate of incidence was higher among females than among males.The crude rate of mortality was 256.04/1 05,and the age-standardized rate was 88.41/105.The age-standardized rate of mortality was higher among males than among females.The age-specific numbers and rates of incidence and mortality increased with age.The age-specific number and rate of incidence reached the peak at the age groups of 60-64 years and older than 85 years,and those of mortality among males reached the peak at the age groups of 60-64 years and older than 85 years,and those of mortality among females reached the peak at the age groups of older than 85 years,respectively.The sites of top 10 common cancer types sorted by the number of incidence cases among males were lung,colorectum,stomach,prostate,liver,thyroid,pancreas,bladder,kidney and oesophagus,and among females were lung,breast,thyroid,colorectum,stomach,pancreas,liver,brain,central nervous system(CNS),cervix uteri and gallbladder,the sites of those sorted by the number of deaths among males were lung,stomach,colorectum,liver,pancreas,prostate,oesophagus,bladder,lymphoma and gallbladder,among females were lung,colorectum,breast,stomach,pancreas,liver,gallbladder,brain,CNS,ovary and lymphoma.The top 10 common cancer types stratified by gender and the top 5 common cancer types stratified by common age groups merged of incidence and mortality had wide variations.Overall,the age-standardized rates of incidence were stable from 2002 to 2009,and increased 2.88%on average per year from 2009 to 201 7.The age-standardized rates of mortality were stable from 2002 to 2011,and decreased 2.66%on average per year from 2011 to 201 7.The trends differed by gender and cancer type. Conclusion:Lung cancer,colorectal cancer,pancreatic cancer,thyroid cancer,female breast cancer,cervical cancer and male prostate cancer are the most common cancers in Shanghai,the appropriate screening technical scheme should be formulated according to the current situation of malignant tumors in Shanghai,promote cancer opportunistic screening,promote appropriate technologies for intervention and management of cancer patients in the community,reduce the disease burden of malignant tumors.
5.Survival analysis of cancer cases diagnosed during 2002-2013 in Shanghai:a population-based study
Chunxiao WU ; Kai GU ; Yi PANG ; Chunfang WANG ; Liang SHI ; Yongmei XIANG ; Yangming GONG ; Peng PENG ; Jianming DOU ; Mengyin WU ; Xiaocong ZHANG ; Ganling DING ; Jiaying YAN ; Yan SHI ; Chen FU
Tumor 2023;43(4):257-265
Objective:To investigate the survival of cancer cases diagnosed during 2002-2013 in Shanghai. Methods:Data on new cancer cases with dead and follow-up information were obtained from the population-based cancer registry and vital statistics system of Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention.Survival indicators stratified by year of diagnosis,gender,site and age were analyzed.Number of cases and proportion were calculated.The observed survival rates were calculated based on the life table.The probabilities of surviving from 0 to 99 years old were estimated according to the Elandt-Johnson model,and then the cumulative expected survival rates were calculated according to the Ederer Ⅱ method.Finally,the relative survival rates and average annual percent changes of their trends were calculated.The age-standardized relative survival rates adjusted by International Cancer Survival Standard weights were calculated. Results:Total 644 520 new cancer cases were diagnosed during 2002-2013 in Shanghai,accounting for 643 545(99.85%)cases included in the observed cohort for survival analysis.The 5-year observed survival rate increased from 37.61%to 46.47%.The 5-year relative survival rate increased from 42.1 8%to 51.11%.The 5-year age-standardized relative survival rate increased from 40.57%to 49.80%.Among the 5-year relative survival rates of cases diagnosed during 2011 to 2013,99.43%of thyroid cancer was the highest,followed by female breast cancer(88.35%)and corpus uteri cancer(85.56%);5.87%of pancreas cancer was the lowest,followed by gallbladder cancer(13.64%)and oesophagus cancer(17.72%).the rate of lung cancer with the largest number of cases was 23.59%,followed by colorectal cancer(59.82%)and stomach cancer(38.65%).The 5-year relative survival rate of total cases of all sites increased from 40.55%in 2002 to 52.77%in 2013,with an average annual percent change of 2.40%.13 cancer types showed increasing trends,such as liver cancer and lung cancer,while the trends of other cancer types were not statistically significant,such as pancreatic cancer and gallbladder cancer. Conclusion:The diagnostic levels and survival rates of cancer cases have been improved continuously in Shanghai.The trends of different cancer types were varied.
6.The incidence and mortality of lung cancer in 2016 and their trends from 2002 to 2016 in Shanghai
Jianming DOU ; Chunxiao WU ; Yi PANG ; Pingping BAO ; Chunfang WANG ; Yangming GONG ; Liang SHI ; Yongmei XIANG ; Mengyin WU ; Xiaocong ZHANG ; Yan SHI ; Chen FU ; Kai GU
Tumor 2023;43(4):266-276
Objective:To investigate the lung cancer incidence and mortality in 2016 and their trends from 2002 to 2016 in shanghai. Methods:The data of incidence and death on lung cancer in shanghai from 2002 to 2016 were obtained from the Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention population-based cancer registry and Vital Statistics System.Lung Cancer incidence and mortality stratified by age of diagnosis or death,gender and age-group were analyzed.The number of cases and deaths,proportion,crude rates,age-specific rates,age-standardized rates,corresponding truncated age-standardized rates(35-64 years)and cumulative rates were calculated.Segi's 1960 world standard population was used for calculating age-standardized rates of incidence and mortality as well as truncated age-standardized rates.Trends in age-standardized rates of incidence and death for lung cancer in Shanghai from 2002-2016 were estimated by Joinpoint analysis and characterized by the annual percent change(APC). Results:The new lung cancer cases and deaths were 14 395 and 9 170 in Shanghai in 2016.The crude rate of incidence was 99.41/105,and the age-standardized rate of incidence was 39.76/105.New cases of lung cancer accounted for 19.34%of all malignant tumors in shanghai,ranking the first in the incidence spectrum of malignant tumors.The crude rate of mortality was 63.33/105,and the age-standardized rate was 21.57/105.Deaths of lung cancer accounted for 24.78%of all malignant tumor deaths in shanghai,ranking the first in the mortality spectrum of malignant tumors.The age-standardized rates of incidence and mortality for males were higher than those for females.The age-specific numbers and rates of incidence and mortality increased with age.The age-specific number and rate of incidence reached the peak at the age group of 60-64 years and 80-84 years respectively,and those of mortality peaked at the age group of 80-84 years and older than 85 years respectively.The incidence of lung cancer increased from 33.70/105 in 2002 to 39.76/1 05 in 2016 in Shanghai.Joinpoint analyses showed that the age-standardized rate of lung cancer incidence remained stable from 2002 to 2010(APC=-0.79,t=-1.46,P=0.175)but showed a significant upward trend with an average annual increase rate of 5.12%from 2010 to 2016(APC=5.12,t=6.97,P<0.001).The standardized mortality showed a downward trend with an average annual decrease rate of 0.87%from 2002 to 2016(APC=-0.87,t=-2.87,P=0.013). Conclusion:The incidence of lung cancer in Shanghai during 2002-2016 presented an upward trend while the mortality of lung cancer showed a gradual downward trend.There are differences in the incidence and mortality of lung cancer among different gender and age groups.
7.Analysis on the current status of liver cancer incidence and mortality in Shanghai,2016 and trends during 2002-2016
Liang SHI ; Kai GU ; Chunxiao WU ; Yi PANG ; Yangming GONG ; Yongmei XIANG ; Jianming DOU ; Xiaocong ZHANG ; Mengyin WU ; Chunfang WANG ; Yan SHI ; Chen FU
Tumor 2023;43(4):277-286
Objective:To investigate the liver cancer incidence and mortality in 2016 and their trends during 2002 through 2016 in Shanghai. Methods:Data on new liver cancer diagnoses and deaths during 2002 through 2016 were obtained from the Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention population-based cancer registry and Vital Statistics System,the numbers,crude rates and age-standardized rates of incidence and mortality of liver cancer were calculated.Segi's 1960 world standard population was used to calculate age-standardized rates.Joinpoint analysis was used to analyze the trend changes and to estimate the annual percent change of incidence and mortality rates. Results:There were 3 842 new liver cancer cases in Shanghai in 201 6,69.44%of which were males,and 3 275 deaths of liver cancer,69.44%of which were males.Mortality to incidence ratio was 0.85.The crude rate of incidence was 26.53/105,and the age-standardized rate was 10.60/105.The crude rate of mortality was 22.62/105,and the age-standardized rate was 8.65/105.The Sex ratios for age-standardized incidence and mortality were 2.91∶1 and 2.97∶1,respectively.The age-specific numbers and rates of incidence and mortality increased with age.Overall,the age-standardized rate of incidence of liver cancer was decreased 3.69%on average per year during 2002 through 2016,and the age-standardized rate of mortality of liver cancer was decreased 3.82%on average per year. Conclusion:The incidence and mortality of liver cancer in Shanghai have been remarkably decreased to a low level countrywide,while liver cancer is still one of the leading malignancies and it brings serious threat to public health,comprehensive prevention and control efforts should be strengthened according to its epidemic characteristics and risk factors.
8.Incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer in Shanghai 2016 and changing trend analysis from 2002 to 2016
Xiaocong ZHANG ; Peng PENG ; Chunxiao WU ; Yi PANG ; Chunfang WANG ; Mengyin WU ; Yangming GONG ; Ganling DING ; Chen FU ; Yan SHI ; Kai GU
Tumor 2023;43(4):287-296
Objective:More than half of esophageal cancer incidences and deaths occurred in China.Based on the Shanghai Tumor Registration data,this study analyzed the incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer in Shanghai in 2016 and the changing trend from 2002 to 2016,in order to provide an epidemic basis for the prevention and treatment of esophageal cancer. Methods:Data on esophageal cancer in Shanghai from 2002 to 2016 were obtained through Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention Population-based Cancer Registry and Vital Statistics System.The number of cases and deaths,crude rates,composition ratios,age-specific rates and cumulative rates were counted according to the year of diagnosis or death,gender and age groups.Segi's 1960 world standard population was used to calculate age-standardized rates of incidence and mortality,and corresponding truncated age-standardized rate(35-64 years old)on esophageal cancer.Z-test and Cochran test were used to compare the differences of age-specific rates and age-standardized rates among different subgroups,respectively.Temporal trend analyses were conducted by Joinpiont 4.9.1.0 software. Results:In 2016,the proportion of morphological verification of new cases of esophageal cancer in Shanghai was 73.1 8%,the proportion of death certificate only was 0.72%,and the ratio of death to incidence was 0.84.The number of new cases and deaths of esophageal cancer in Shanghai in 2016 were 1 398 and 1 171,accounting for 1.88%and 3.1 6%of all malignant tumors,respectively.The crude incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer were 9.65/100 000 and 8.09/100000,with age-standardized incidence and mortality of 3.36/100 000 and 2.67/100,000,respectively.The age-standardized incidence and mortality were significantly higher in males than in females.The age-specific incidence and mortality increased with age,and peaked at 50.54/100 000 and 53.35/1 00 000,respectively,among people aged 85 years and older.From 2002 to 2016,both the number of new cases and deaths of esophageal cancer in Shanghai showed a downward trend,and the age-standardized incidence and mortality also showed a downward trend,with an average annual deceleration of 4.45%[annual percent change(APC)=-4.45,P<0.001]and 4.1 7%(APC=-4.17,P<0.001),respectively. Conclusion:The incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer in Shanghai were at a low epidemic level across China,and showed a downward trend from 2002 to 2016.Esophageal cancer screening should focus on males and subjects aged 55 to 64 years.
9.Analysis on the current status of ovarian,fallopian tube and other uterine adnexa cancer incidence and mortality in Shanghai,2016 and trends of 2002-2016
Yi PANG ; Chunxiao WU ; Kai GU ; Chunfang WANG ; Jiaying YAN ; Yongmei XIANG ; Chen FU ; Yan SHI
Tumor 2023;43(4):307-315
Objective:To investigate the incidence and mortality of ovarian,fallopian tube and other uterine adnexa cancer in 2016 and their trends during 2002 through 2016 in Shanghai. Methods:Data on new ovarian,fallopian tube and other uterine adnexa cancer diagnoses and deaths during 2002 through 2016 were obtained from the Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention population-based cancer registry and Vital Statistics System.The incidence and mortality stratified by year of diagnosis or death,site and age-group were analyzed.The number,proportion,crude rate,age-specific rate,age-standardized rate and others were calculated.Trends in number,age-specific rate,age-standardized rate and others were estimated.Trends in age-standardized rate of incidence and mortality for the ovarian cancer were estimated by Joinpoint analysis and characterized by the annual percent change(APC).The number and proportion of selected indexes of diagnostic characteristics of new ovarian and fallopian tube cancer cases were also calculated.Segi's 1960 world standard population was used for calculating age-standardized rates. Results:The new uterine adnexa cancer cases and deaths were 813 and 440 in Shanghai in 2016.There were 751 cases(92.37%)and 419 deaths(95.23%)of ovarian cancer,and 48 cases(5.91%)and 17 deaths(3.86%)of fallopian tube cancer.The crude rate of ovarian cancer incidence was 10.29/105,and the age-standardized rate was 5.33/105.The crude rate of mortality was 5.74/105,and the age-standardized rate was 2.44/105.Overall,the age-specific rates of incidence and mortality increased with aging.They reached the peak at the age group of 55-59 years and 80-84 years,respectively.Joinpoint analyses showed a significant decreasing trend in the standardized incidence of ovarian cancer in Shanghai from 2002 to 2016,with an average annual increase of 1.78%(APC=-1.78,P<0.001),while the increase in standardized mortality was not statistically significant.The proportion of pathological diagnosis on ovarian cancer increased to 85.02%,and the proportions of stageⅢ and Ⅳ continued to increase.The incidence of ovarian cancer in Shanghai from 2002 to 2016 showed a decreasing trend,while the mortality showed a fluctuating trend. Conclusion:In Shanghai,the age-standardized incidence rate of ovarian cancer was declined steadily,but the proportion of diagnosed advanced increased.The number of fallopian tube cancer cases increased steadily.
10.Analysis of long-term trend changes in breast cancer incidence and death among females in Shanghai,1973-2017
Jiaying YAN ; Mengyin WU ; Kai GU ; Chunxiao WU ; Yi PANG ; Chunfang WANG ; Yangming GONG ; Yongmei XIANG ; Chen FU ; Yingbin LIU ; Yan SHI
Tumor 2023;43(4):316-324
Objective:To describe the long-term characteristics and trend changes in the incidence and mortality of female breast cancer in Shanghai from 1 973 to 2017,aiming to provide references for exploring the etiology of breast cancer and formulating strategies and measures for prevention,intervention and control. Methods:Joinpoint software was used to analyze the trend changes in the incidence and mortality of female breast cancer in Shanghai from 1 973 to 2017,and an age-period-cohort model was constructed to explore the effects of age,year of diagnosis,and birth cohort on long-term trend changes. Results:From 1 973 to 2017,there were 68 192 new cases of female breast cancer in Shanghai,with a diagnosed rate of 31.72/100 000.The incidence rate continued to rise,and the risk of the disease continued to rise from the age of 20 years,and the rise rate accelerated significantly after the age of 40 years.There were 21 535 female breast cancer deaths from 1 973 to 2017.The mortality rate was stable,with a death rate of 8.62/100 000,and the risk of death increased significantly from the age of 45 years.The effects of age,period and cohort had a significant impact on the incidence of breast cancer(P<0.01),while the increase in mortality rate was related to age and cohort effects(P<0.01). Conclusion:The incidence rate of female breast cancer in Shanghai is still rising rapidly,and the mortality trend is generally stable,suggesting that the treatment is effective and the quality of life is improved.However,breast cancer is still the main malignant tumor among females in Shanghai.It should be continued to implement prevention and control strategies such as lifestyle intervention and screening of high-risk individuals to further strengthen the prevention and control of breast cancer.

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