1.Association analyses of early medication clocking-in trajectory with smart tools and treatment outcome in pulmonary tuberculosis patients
Chunhua XU ; Zheyuan WU ; Yong WU ; Qing WANG ; Zichun WANG ; Nan QIN ; Xinru LI ; Yucong YAO ; Kehua YI ; Yi HU
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(3):210-214
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			ObjectiveTo construct a group-based trajectory model (GBTM) for early medication adherence check-in, and to analyze the relationship between different trajectories and treatment outcomes in tuberculosis patients using data that were generated from smart tools for monitoring their medication adherence and check-in. MethodsFrom October 1, 2022 to September 30, 2023, a total of 163 pulmonary tuberculosis patients diagnosed in Fengxian District were selected as the study subjects. The GBTM was utilized to analyze the weekly active check-in trajectories of the subjects during the first 4 weeks and establish different trajectory groups. The χ² tests were employed to compare the differences between groups and logistic regression analysis was conducted to explore the relationship between different trajectory groups and treatment outcomes. ResultsA total of four groups were generated by GBTM analyses, of which a low level of punch card was maintained in group A, 6% of the drug users increased rapidly from a low level in group B, 17% of drug users increased gradually from a low level in group C, and 18% of drug users maintained a high level of punch card in group D. The trajectory group was divided into two groups according to homogeneity, namely the low level medication punch card group (group A) and the high level medication punch card group (group B, group C, and group D). The results of multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that low-level medication check-in (OR=3.250, 95%CI: 1.089‒9.696), increasing age (OR=1.030, 95%CI: 1.004‒1.056), and not undergoing sputum examination at the end of the fifth month (OR=2.746, 95%CI: 1.090‒7.009) were significantly associated with poor treatment outcomes. ConclusionThe medication check-in trajectory of pulmonary tuberculosis patients within the first 4 weeks is correlated with adverse outcomes, or namely consistent low-level medication adherence check-ins are associated with poor treatment outcomes, while high-level medication adherence check-ins are associated with a lower incidence of adverse outcomes. 
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
2.Downregulation of LINC00638 contributes to the pathogenesis of rheumatoid arthritis-associated interstitial lung disease via inhibiting the Nrf2/ARE signaling pathway
Zhuojun LIAO ; Naiwang TANG ; Jiahui CHEN ; Xueying SUN ; Jiamin LU ; Qin WU ; Ronghuan YU ; Ying ZHOU
Chinese Journal of Clinical Medicine 2025;32(3):421-431
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			Objective To identify long non-coding RNA (lncRNA) associated with rheumatoid arthritis-associated interstitial lung disease (RA-ILD) and investigate their mechanisms. Methods Peripheral blood samples were collected from RA-ILD patients (n=3), RA patients without lung involvement (n=3), and healthy controls (n=3). Next-generation sequencing was performed to screen differentially expressed lncRNA. A human fibrotic lung cell model was established by inducing the MRC-5 cell line with transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β). Following siRNA-mediated knockdown of target genes, changes in inflammatory and oxidative stress-related genes were analyzed via real-time quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR). Western blotting and dual-luciferase reporter (DLR) assays were used to validate protein expression, ubiquitination levels, and nuclear translocation of oxidative stress regulators, and antioxidant response element (ARE) transcriptional activity. Rescue experiments were conducted to confirm the role of target lncRNA in oxidative stress and inflammation in fibrotic lung cells. Results High-throughput sequencing revealed significant downregulation of LINC00638 in RA-ILD patients. Knockdown of LINC00638 markedly reduced transcriptional levels of interleukin (IL)-4, nuclear factor erythroid-2-related factor 2 (Nrf2), heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1), and superoxide dismutase 2 (SOD2), while increasing IL-6, IL-1β, interferon-γ (IFN-γ), and reactive oxygen species (ROS) levels. Furthermore, LINC00638 knockdown decreased Nrf2 protein expression, increased its ubiquitination, reduced nuclear translocation, and suppressed ARE transcriptional activity. In MRC-5 cells, LINC00638 knockdown combined with N-acetylcysteine treatment restored Nrf2 and HO-1 levels while reducing IL-6 expression. Conclusions LINC00638 suppresses inflammatory responses in RA-ILD by activating the Nrf2/ARE antioxidant signaling pathway, suggesting its potential as a therapeutic target for diagnosis and treatment.
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
3.Relationship between the use of disposable plastic food containers and executive function among primary school students in a district of Chongqing
WANG Wenhe, WU Dan, LIU Shudan, YE Siyan, CUI Chengpeng, LIU Qin
Chinese Journal of School Health 2025;46(6):811-815
		                        		
		                        			Objective:
		                        			To investigate the impact of disposable plastic food container usage on the executive function among primary school students, so as to provide the evidence for the formulation of relevant health policies.
		                        		
		                        			Methods:
		                        			From November 2023 to May 2024, a convenience sampling method was employed to select 1 118 grade 1-3 students from three primary schools in a central district of Chongqing. A self developed questionnaire was used to collect demographic characteristics and data on disposable plastic food container usage. Executive function of primary school students was assessed using the Childhood Executive Functioning Inventory (CHEXI). Multivariate linear regression analysis was conducted to explore the associations between disposable plastic food container usage and heating with executive function among primary school students.
		                        		
		                        			Results:
		                        			Median scores for working memory, inhibition and total executive function among primary school students were 32 (26, 39), 33 (28, 38), and 66 (54, 75), respectively. Multivariate linear regression analysis showed that among girls, higher frequencies of eating meals from plastic lunchboxes were associated with higher CHEXI working memory scores ( β =1.29), inhibition scores ( β =1.57), and total executive function scores ( β =2.85) ( P <0.05). Compared to girls who did not use plastic cups or drank bottled water, those who used plastic cups for drinking or drank bottled water had higher scores in working memory ( β =2.63), inhibition ( β =2.10), and total executive function ( β =4.73); compared to girls who did not eat canned food from metal cans, those who ate such food had higher scores in working memory ( β =3.62), inhibition ( β =1.89), and total executive function ( β =5.50) ( P <0.05).Among boys, higher frequencies of eating meals from plastic lunchboxes were associated with higher inhibition scores ( β =1.13) ( P <0.05). Compared to girls who ate with a plastic lunch box and did not heat it when they ate,girls who more frequent heating plastic lunchboxes with food inside had higher working memory scores  ( β = 5.39), inhibition scores ( β =4.29), and total executive function scores ( β = 9.68) ( P <0.05).
		                        		
		                        			Conclusions
		                        			The use of disposable plastic food containers may adversely affect executive function of primary school students, with a more pronounced effect observed in girls. Strengthened regulation of disposable plastic products and health education are urgently needed.
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
4.Incremental effectiveness of two-dose of mumps-containing vaccine in chidren
Chinese Journal of School Health 2025;46(6):883-887
		                        		
		                        			Objective:
		                        			To evaluate the incremental vaccine effectiveness (VE) of two dose of the mumps containing vaccine (MuCV) in chidren, so as to provide a basis for optimizing mumps immunization strategies.
		                        		
		                        			Methods:
		                        			A 1∶2 frequency matched case-control study was conducted by using reported mumps cases in childcare centers or schools from Lu an, Hefei, Ma anshan and Huainan cities of Anhui Province from September 1, 2023 to June 30, 2024, as a case group(383 cases). And healthy children in the same classroom were selected as a control group(766 cases). The MuCV immunization histories of participants were collected to estimate the incremental VE of the second dose of MuCV against mumps. Group comparisons were performed using the  Chi square test or  t-test. For matched case-control pairs, the Cox regression model was employed to calculate the odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) for two dose MuCV vaccination and to estimate the incremental vaccine effectiveness (VE).
		                        		
		                        			Results:
		                        			There were no statistically significant differences between the case and control groups regarding gender, age, dosage of MuCV vaccination and the time interval since the last dose vaccination( χ 2/t=0.05, 0.20, 0.94, -0.02, P >0.05). The proportions of the case and control groups vaccinated with two doses of MuCV were 26.63% and 29.37%, respectively, and the overall incremental VE of the second dose of MuCV was 40.73% (95% CI=3.03%-63.77%, P <0.05). Subgroup analyses revealed that the incremental VE for children with a period of ≥1 year between the two doses of MuCV was 54.13% (95% CI=1.90%-78.56%, P <0.05), while for children with a period of <1 year, it was 30.63% (95% CI=-28.59%-62.58%, P >0.05). The incremental VE of the second dose of MuCV was 30.36% (95% CI=-25.95%-61.50%, P >0.05) in kindergarten children and 66.73% (95% CI=14.92%-86.99%, P <0.05) in elementary and secondary school students. The incremental VE was 28.78% (95% CI=-27.46%-60.21%, P >0.05) within five years of the last dose of MuCV vaccination and 66.07% (95% CI=-41.56%-91.87%, P >0.05) for vaccinations administered beyond five years.
		                        		
		                        			Conclusions
		                        			The second dose of MuCV may offer additional protection for children; however, extending the interval between two dose of MuCV (<1 year) has shown limited incremental protective effects. Therefore, it is crucial to consider optimizing current immunization strategies for mumps.
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
5.Systematic review and Metaanalysis of the association between heavy metal exposure and obesity in children and adolescents
WU Meng, LUO Lü ; er, WANG Jinghan, LIU Qin
Chinese Journal of School Health 2025;46(7):926-931
		                        		
		                        			Objective:
		                        			To systematically evaluate the relationship of exposure to five heavy metals, namely lead, arsenic, cadmium, mercury and aluminum with obesity in children and adolescents, so as to provide a scientific basis for subsequent research in the area.
		                        		
		                        			Methods:
		                        			Four Chinese databasesc (CBM, VIP, CNKI and Wanfang) and four foreign databases (OVID, PubMed, Web of Science and EBSCO), were searched to collect relevant studies, and the search period was from the establishment of the database to May 5, 2024. After 2 investigators independently screened the literature, extracted the data and evaluated the risk of bias of the included studies, the results were analyzed quantitatively and summarized qualitatively.
		                        		
		                        			Results:
		                        			A total of 5 cohort studies on lead exposure and 17 cross sectional studies involving exposure to lead ( n =13), cadmium ( n =8), mercury ( n =8), arsenic ( n =4), and aluminum ( n =1) were included. Meta analysis of the 2 cohort studies showed that lead exposure was not associated with the risk of overweight and obesity in children ( RR=0.76, 95%CI=0.50-1.16, P >0.05). The cross sectional study Meta-analysis results showed that lead exposure was negatively associated with the risk of childhood overweight ( OR=0.70, 95%CI =0.59-0.84, 2 studies) and obesity ( OR=0.71, 95%CI =0.58-0.87, 3 studies); cadmium exposure was negatively associated with the risk of childhood overweight ( OR=0.83, 95%CI =0.73-0.95, 2 studies) and obesity risk( OR=0.70, 95%CI =0.63-0.78, 3 studies); mercury exposure increased the risk of overweight/obesity ( OR=1.42, 95%CI =1.14-1.76, 2 studies) and abdominal obesity ( OR= 1.99, 95%CI =1.45-2.73, 2 studies) in children; the group with the highest concentration of arsenic in urine had a lower risk of developing obesity compared to the group with the lowest concentration ( OR=0.39, 95%CI =0.23-0.65, 1 study), and the group with the highest concentration of aluminum in urine had a lower risk of obesity compared with the group with the lowest concentration ( OR=0.52, 95%CI =0.31-0.86, 1 study)(all  P <0.05).
		                        		
		                        			Conclusion
		                        			Heavy metal exposure may be a risk factor for overweight and obesity in children and adolescents, but the conclusions are inconsistent and need to be validated in further high quality prospective cohort studies.
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
6.Effect of Mori Folium-Ginseng Radix et Rhizoma on Glucose and Lipid Metabolism and Mechanism in Mouse Model of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus
Congyi LIU ; Ning WANG ; Jingjing XU ; Tingting WANG ; Na ZHENG ; Zimeng HUANG ; Lingling QIN ; Lili WU ; Tonghua LIU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(17):20-28
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			ObjectiveTo study the effect of the herb pair Mori Folium-Ginseng Radix et Rhizoma (HMG) on glucose and lipid metabolism in the mouse model of type 2 diabetes mellitus and decipher the possible treatment mechanism. MethodsThe db/db mice were chosen as the mouse model of type 2 diabetes mellitus and then treated with HMG at low and high doses (1.56, 3.12 g∙kg-1, respectively) or metformin (0.26 g∙kg-1) by gavage for 6 weeks. The normal group and the model group were treated with double distilled water at the same time according to body weight. The 8-h fasting blood glucose and body weight were measured once a week. The oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) was conducted at the 6th week of dosing. The mice were sacrificed after the end of dosing. Serum levels of lipids [total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL)], liver function indicators [aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and alanine aminotransferase (ALT)], non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA), glycosylated serum protein (GSP), serum glucose (GLU), fasting insulin (FINS), and renal function indicators [creatinine (Crea) and blood urea nitrogen (BUN)] were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The protein levels of peroxidase proliferator-activating receptor gamma (PPARγ), acetyl coenzyme A carboxylase (ACC), and sterol regulatory element-binding protein-1 (SREBP-1) were determined by Western blot. The pathological changes in the liver and pancreas were examined. ResultsCompared with the normal group, the model group presented increased body weight, elevated levels of blood glucose, TG, TC, AST, ALT, GLU, NEFA, GSP, and HDL-C, up-regulated protein levels of ACC and SREBP-1, and down-regulated protein level of PPARγ (P<0.01). Meanwhile, the model group presented a large amount of lipid droplets and steatosis in the liver, as well as karyopyknosis and lymphocyte infiltration in the pancreas. Compared with the model group, the high- and low-dose HMG groups showed decreased body weight, declined levels of blood glucose, TG, TC, AST, ALT, GLU, NEFA, and GSP, and elevate level of HDL-C (P<0.05, P<0.01). Moreover, the two groups showcased reduced lipid droplets and steatosis in the liver, as well as enlarged islets with clear boundaries and alleviated lymphocyte infiltration and karyopyknosis. Western blot results showed that the high-dose herb pair group demonstrated down-regulated protein levels of ACC and SREBP-1 and up-regulated protein level of PPARγ (P<0.01). ConclusionThe HMG can effectively improve the glucose and lipid metabolism in db/db mice by regulating the expression of PPARγ, SREBP-1, and ACC. 
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
7.Effect of Mori Folium-Ginseng Radix et Rhizoma on Glucose and Lipid Metabolism and Mechanism in Mouse Model of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus
Congyi LIU ; Ning WANG ; Jingjing XU ; Tingting WANG ; Na ZHENG ; Zimeng HUANG ; Lingling QIN ; Lili WU ; Tonghua LIU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(17):20-28
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			ObjectiveTo study the effect of the herb pair Mori Folium-Ginseng Radix et Rhizoma (HMG) on glucose and lipid metabolism in the mouse model of type 2 diabetes mellitus and decipher the possible treatment mechanism. MethodsThe db/db mice were chosen as the mouse model of type 2 diabetes mellitus and then treated with HMG at low and high doses (1.56, 3.12 g∙kg-1, respectively) or metformin (0.26 g∙kg-1) by gavage for 6 weeks. The normal group and the model group were treated with double distilled water at the same time according to body weight. The 8-h fasting blood glucose and body weight were measured once a week. The oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) was conducted at the 6th week of dosing. The mice were sacrificed after the end of dosing. Serum levels of lipids [total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL)], liver function indicators [aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and alanine aminotransferase (ALT)], non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA), glycosylated serum protein (GSP), serum glucose (GLU), fasting insulin (FINS), and renal function indicators [creatinine (Crea) and blood urea nitrogen (BUN)] were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The protein levels of peroxidase proliferator-activating receptor gamma (PPARγ), acetyl coenzyme A carboxylase (ACC), and sterol regulatory element-binding protein-1 (SREBP-1) were determined by Western blot. The pathological changes in the liver and pancreas were examined. ResultsCompared with the normal group, the model group presented increased body weight, elevated levels of blood glucose, TG, TC, AST, ALT, GLU, NEFA, GSP, and HDL-C, up-regulated protein levels of ACC and SREBP-1, and down-regulated protein level of PPARγ (P<0.01). Meanwhile, the model group presented a large amount of lipid droplets and steatosis in the liver, as well as karyopyknosis and lymphocyte infiltration in the pancreas. Compared with the model group, the high- and low-dose HMG groups showed decreased body weight, declined levels of blood glucose, TG, TC, AST, ALT, GLU, NEFA, and GSP, and elevate level of HDL-C (P<0.05, P<0.01). Moreover, the two groups showcased reduced lipid droplets and steatosis in the liver, as well as enlarged islets with clear boundaries and alleviated lymphocyte infiltration and karyopyknosis. Western blot results showed that the high-dose herb pair group demonstrated down-regulated protein levels of ACC and SREBP-1 and up-regulated protein level of PPARγ (P<0.01). ConclusionThe HMG can effectively improve the glucose and lipid metabolism in db/db mice by regulating the expression of PPARγ, SREBP-1, and ACC. 
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
8.Therapeutic Effect of Wenweishu Granules on Functional Dyspepsia Rats with Spleen-stomach Deficiency Cold Syndrome Based on Bioinformatics Analysis and Experimental Validation
Xinyu YANG ; Xiaoyi JIA ; Zihua XUAN ; Shuangying GUI ; Yanfang WU ; Yuhan MA ; Qin RUAN ; Jia ZHENG ; Zhiyong JIAO
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(18):30-40
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			ObjectiveThis study aims to investigate the therapeutic effects of Wenweishu granule (WWSG) on functional dyspepsia (FD) with spleen-stomach deficiency cold syndrome in rats by integrating network pharmacology, molecular docking, and animal experiments. MethodsActive components and corresponding targets of WWSG were collected from the Traditional Chinese Medicine Systems Pharmacology Database and Analysis Platform (TCMSP) and the Bioinformatics Analysis Tool for Molecular Mechanism of Traditional Chinese Medicine (BATMAN-TCM). Disease-related targets for FD with spleen-stomach deficiency cold syndrome were screened using GeneCards and the Integrative Pharmacology-based Research Platform of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCMIP). Core therapeutic targets were identified via Cytoscape and validated by molecular docking. A rat model of FD with spleen-stomach deficiency cold syndrome was established using vinegar gavage combined with tail-clamping. The rats were randomly divided into a model group, low-, medium-, and high-dose WWSG groups (2.0, 4.0, 8.0 g·kg-1), a domperidone group (3.0 mg·kg-1), a Fuzi Lizhong pillwan (0.8 g·kg-1), and a normal control group (n=10 per group). Drugs were administered once daily by gavage for 14 consecutive days. After treatment, body weight, symptom scores, and gastrointestinal motility indices were recorded. Gastric and duodenal pathologies changes were observed via hematoxylin-eosin (HE) staining. Brain-gut peptides were measured in serum and tissue using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Immunohistochemistry and Western blot were performed to assess stem cell factor (SCF) and receptor tyrosine kinase (c-Kit) protein expression in gastric tissues. ResultsA total of 305 drug targets, 1 140 disease targets, and 116 overlapping targets were identified. Cytoscape analysis revealed 104 core targets. Enrichment analysis indicated that the SCF/c-Kit signaling pathway was the key mechanism. Molecular docking confirmed a strong binding affinity between active components of WWSG and SCF/c-Kit proteins (binding energy<-5.1 kcal·mol-1). Compared with the normal group, model rats exhibited slower weight gain (P<0.05), reduced gastric emptying and intestinal propulsion (P<0.01), mild gastric mucosal shedding, duodenal inflammatory cell infiltration, decreased levels of gastrin (GAS), 5-hydroxytryptamine (5-HT), and vasoactive intestinal peptide (VIP) (P<0.05, P<0.01), and elevated somatostatin (SS) expression (P<0.05, P<0.01). WWSG treatment ameliorated weight gain, symptom scores, and low-grade inflammation in gastric/duodenal tissues. High-dose WWSG significantly improved gastric emptying and intestinal propulsion, upregulated GAS, 5-HT, and VIP, and downregulated SS expression in serum and tissues (P<0.05, P<0.01). Immunohistochemistry and Western blot demonstrated that SCF and c-Kit protein expression was decreased in the model group (P<0.05, P<0.01), which was reversed by WWSG intervention (P<0.05). ConclusionWWSG exerts therapeutic effects on FD with spleen-stomach deficiency cold syndrome in rats, potentially by regulating the SCF/c-Kit signaling pathway to enhance gastrointestinal motility. 
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
9.Investigation of an outbreak of group A human G9P [8] rotavirus infectious diarrhea among adults in Chongqing
Yang WANG ; Yuan KONG ; Ning CHEN ; Lundi YANG ; Jiang LONG ; Qin LI ; Xiaoyang XU ; Wei ZHENG ; Hong WEI ; Jie LU ; Quanjie XIAO ; Yingying BA ; Wenxi WU ; Qian XU ; Ju YAN
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(8):663-668
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			ObjectiveTo investigate and analyze an outbreak of rotavirus infectious diarrhea in a prison in Chongqing Municipality, to provide a basis for adult rotavirus surveillance and prevention, and to explore the public health problems in special settings. MethodsA retrospective survey was conducted to collect and analyze data on individual cases with diarrheal disease on-site. The clinical characteristics, as well as the temporal, spatial and geographical distribution patterns of the epidemic were described. Multi-pathogen detection tests were conducted both on diarrhea cases and environmental samples, with viral genotyping performed on positive samples. A case-control analysis was performed to identify the causes of the outbreak, and an SEIR model was adopted to predict the outbreak trend and evaluate the effectiveness of interventions. ResultsA total of 65 cases were found among the inmates, with an attack rate of 2.03%. The predominant clinical manifestations included diarrhea (89.23%), watery stool (73.85%), and dehydration (18.46%). The epidemic curve indicated a “human-to-human” transmission pattern, with an average incubation period of 5‒6 days. The attack rates among chefs in the main canteen (80.00%, 8/10) and caterers (28.33%, 17/60) were significantly higher than those of other inmates (P<0.05). Multi-pathogen polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing detected positive for group A rotavirus, with the viral genotyping identified as G9P [8] strain. Factors such as unprotected "bare-handed" food distribution among cases with diarrhea (OR=9.512, 95%CI: 4.261‒21.234) and close contact with diarrhea cases (OR=3.656, 95%CI: 1.719‒7.778) were the possible cause of the outbreak. The SEIR model (r0=5, α=0.3, β1=0.08, β2=0.04) was constructed using prison inmates as susceptible population, aiming at fitting the initial transmission trend of the outbreak, and the epidemic rate declined rapidly after intervention measures were implemented (rt≈0). ConclusionThis rare rotavirus infection diarrhea outbreak among adults in confined settings suggests that the construction of public health prevention and control systems in prison may be overlooked. Cross infection during meal processing and distribution in the canteens of such settings is likely to be the cause of the outbreak. Given the potential neglect of public heath system construction in special settings, it is imperative to enhance the surveillance and monitoring of rotavirus and other intestinal multi-pathogens among adults, as well as the construction of public health prevention and control systems in these special settings. 
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
10.Development of a nomogram-based risk prediction model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease incidence in community-dwelling population aged 40 years and above in Shanghai
Yixuan ZHANG ; Yiling WU ; Jinxin ZANG ; Xuyan SU ; Xin YIN ; Jing LI ; Wei LUO ; Minjun YU ; Wei WANG ; Qi ZHAO ; Qin WANG ; Genming ZHAO ; Yonggen JIANG ; Na WANG
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(8):669-675
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			ObjectiveTo develop a nomogram-based risk prediction model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) incidence among the community-dwelling population aged 40 years old and above, so as to provide targeted references for the screening and prevention of COPD. MethodsBased on a natural population cohort in suburban Shanghai, a total of 3 381 randomly selected participants aged ≥40 years underwent pulmonary function tests between July and October 2021. Cox stepwise regression analysis was used to develop overall and gender-specific risk prediction models, along with the construction of corresponding risk nomograms. Model predictive performance was evaluated using the C-indice, area under the curve (AUC) values, and Brier score. Stability was assessed through 10-fold cross-validation and sensitivity analysis. ResultsA total of 3 019 participants were included, with a median follow-up duration of 4.6 years. The COPD incidence density was 17.22 per 1 000 person-years, significantly higher in males (32.04/1 000 person-years) than that in females (7.38/1 000 person-years) (P<0.001). The overall risk prediction model included the variables such as gender, age, education level, BMI, smoking, passive smoking, and respiratory comorbidities. The male-specific model incorporated the variables such as age, BMI, respiratory comorbidities, and smoking, while the female-specific model included age, marital status, respiratory comorbidities, and pulmonary tuberculosis history. The C-indices for the overall, male-specific, and female-specific models were 0.829, 0.749, and 0.807, respectively. The 5-year AUC values were 0.785, 0.658, and 0.811, with Brier scores of 0.103, 0.176, and 0.059, respectively. Both 10-fold cross-validated C-indices and sensitivity analysis (excluding participants with a follow-up duration of <6 months) yielded C-indices were above 0.740. ConclusionThis study developed concise and practical overall and gender-specific COPD risk prediction models and corresponding nomograms. The models demonstrated robust performance in predicting COPD incidence, providing a valuable reference for identifying high-risk populations and formulating targeted screening and personalized management strategies. 
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
            

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