Under the current African swine fever (ASF) epidemic situation, a science-based ASF-control strategy is required. An ASF transmission mechanistic model can be used to understand the disease transmission dynamics among susceptible epidemiological units and evaluate the effectiveness of an ASF-control strategy by simulating disease spread results with different control options. The force of infection, which is the probability that a susceptible epidemiological unit becomes infected, could be estimated by applying an ASF transmission mechanistic model. The government needs to plan an ASF-control strategy based on an ASF transmission mechanistic model.

Background: African swine fever (ASF) is a hemorrhagic fever occurring in wild boars (Sus scrofa) and domestic pigs. The epidemic situation of ASF in South Korean wild boars has increased the risk of ASF in domestic pig farms. Although basic reproduction number (R0) can be applied for control policies, it is challenging to estimate the R0 for ASF in wild boars due to surveillance bias, lack of wild boar population data, and the effect of ASF-positive wild boar carcass on disease dynamics. Objectives: This study was undertaken to estimate the R0 of ASF in wild boars in South Korea, and subsequently analyze the spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Methods: We detected the local transmission clusters using the spatiotemporal clustering algorithm, which was modified to incorporate the effect of ASF-positive wild boar carcass. With the assumption of exponential growth, R0 was estimated for each cluster. The temporal change of the estimates and its association with the habitat suitability of wild boar were analyzed. Results: Totally, 22 local transmission clusters were detected, showing seasonal patterns occurring in winter and spring. Mean value of R0 of each cluster was 1.54. The estimates showed a temporal increasing trend and positive association with habitat suitability of wild boar. Conclusions The disease dynamics among wild boars seems to have worsened over time. Thus, in areas with a high elevation and suitable for wild boars, practical methods need to be contrived to ratify the control policies for wild boars.

Background: African swine fever (ASF) is a hemorrhagic fever occurring in wild boars (Sus scrofa) and domestic pigs. The epidemic situation of ASF in South Korean wild boars has increased the risk of ASF in domestic pig farms. Although basic reproduction number (R0) can be applied for control policies, it is challenging to estimate the R0 for ASF in wild boars due to surveillance bias, lack of wild boar population data, and the effect of ASF-positive wild boar carcass on disease dynamics. Objectives: This study was undertaken to estimate the R0 of ASF in wild boars in South Korea, and subsequently analyze the spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Methods: We detected the local transmission clusters using the spatiotemporal clustering algorithm, which was modified to incorporate the effect of ASF-positive wild boar carcass. With the assumption of exponential growth, R0 was estimated for each cluster. The temporal change of the estimates and its association with the habitat suitability of wild boar were analyzed. Results: Totally, 22 local transmission clusters were detected, showing seasonal patterns occurring in winter and spring. Mean value of R0 of each cluster was 1.54. The estimates showed a temporal increasing trend and positive association with habitat suitability of wild boar. Conclusions The disease dynamics among wild boars seems to have worsened over time. Thus, in areas with a high elevation and suitable for wild boars, practical methods need to be contrived to ratify the control policies for wild boars.

Background: The aim of this study was to develop a scoring system to stratify the risk of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) and to select the proper management. Methods: We performed a systematic search of MEDLINE and Embase. Data regarding patients’ prognoses were obtained from the included studies. Odds ratios (ORs) with statistical significance were extracted from the publications. To generate a risk scoring system (RSS), ORs were summed (RSS1), and summed after natural-logarithmic transformation (RSS2). RSS1 and RSS2 were compared to the eighth edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system and the 2015 American Thyroid Association (ATA) guidelines for thyroid nodules and differentiated thyroid carcinoma. Results: Five meta-analyses were eligible for inclusion in the study. Eight variables (sex, tumour size, extrathyroidal extension, BRAF mutation, TERT mutation, histologic subtype, lymph node metastasis, and distant metastasis) were included. RSS1 was the best of the analysed models. Conclusion We developed and validated a new RSS derived from previous meta-analyses for patients with PTC. This RSS seems to be superior to previously published systems.

Background: There is limited information on the clinical characteristics of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) who are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms. Methods: We performed a retrospective case series of patients with COVID-19 enrolled from February 22 to March 26, 2020. Forty cases of COVID-19 were confirmed using real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction among patients who underwent screening tests and were consecutively hospitalized at Ulsan University Hospital, Ulsan, Korea.The final follow-up date was May 19, 2020. All COVID-19 cases in Ulsan were included.Demographic and epidemiological information, comorbidities, clinical signs and symptoms, laboratory and radiologic findings, medications, treatments, outcomes, and main durations of patients with COVID-19 were compared according to supplemental oxygen requirement. Results: Forty patients were included (median age, 30 years; interquartile range [IQR], 25–57 years; 58% female). Six (15%) patients required supplemental oxygen. The prevalence of asymptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection was 5% and that of presymptomatic infection was 13%. Cough, fever, myalgia, rhinorrhea or nasal congestion, and diarrhea were the screening criteria for diagnosing symptomatic and presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections. Sputum production, chest discomfort, a large number of symptoms, abnormal procalcitonin and C-reactive protein levels, and abnormal chest X-ray or chest computed tomography findings were more common in patients requiring supplemental oxygen than in those not requiring supplemental oxygen. Overall mortality rate was 3% (1/40). Four patients (10%) were readmitted after testing positive by reversetranscription polymerase chain reaction again. Incubation period was 5 days (IQR, 4–6 days), and the duration of viral shedding was 21 days (IQR, 14–28 days; maximum, 51 days). Conclusion The prevalence of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection was 5%, which is much lower than that previously reported. This finding suggests that careful interviews and follow-ups should be performed to identify SARS-CoV-2 infections. Cough, fever, myalgia, rhinorrhea or nasal congestion, and diarrhea are adequate screening criteria for covering all symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Further evaluation is required to create representative screening criteria for COVID-19.

In epidemiology, the basic reproduction number (R0) is a term that describes the expected number of infections generated by 1 case in a susceptible population. At the beginning of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, R0 was frequently referenced by the public health community and the wider public. However, this metric is often misused or misinterpreted. Moreover, the complexity of the process of estimating R0 has caused difficulties for a substantial number of researchers. In this article, in order to increase the accessibility of this concept, we address several misconceptions related to the threshold characteristics of R0 and the effective reproduction number (Rt). Moreover, the appropriate interpretation of the metrics is discussed. R0 should be considered as a population-averaged value that pools the contact structure according to a stochastic transmission process. Furthermore, it is necessary to understand the unavoidable time lag for Rt due to the incubation period of the disease.

BACKGROUND: This study examined the change in the trabecular bone score (TBS), areal bone mineral density (aBMD), and osteoporosis in postmenopausal women who underwent thyrotropin (TSH)-suppressive therapy for treating papillary thyroid cancer after a total thyroidectomy procedure. METHODS: We evaluated 36 postmenopausal women who received a total thyroidectomy for papillary thyroid cancer and were undergoing TSH suppressive therapy with levothyroxine. Postmenopausal women (n=94) matched for age and body mass index were recruited as healthy controls. The aBMD and TBS of the lumbar spine were compared between dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) at baseline and at follow-up after an average of 4.92 years. RESULTS: There was no significant difference in the rate of diagnoses of osteoporosis, osteopenia, or normal bone status between the 2 groups during the baseline DXA evaluation. However, the TBS was significantly lower whereas aBMD did not show significant difference at the time of baseline DXA measurement (1st DXA, 1.343±0.098 vs. 1.372±0.06317, P < 0.001; 2nd DXA, 1.342±0.095 vs. 1.370±0.062, P < 0.001). The TBS and aBMD did not differ significantly between the initial and follow-up DXA images in both groups of TSH suppressive patients and controls. CONCLUSIONS: The average value of TBS and aBMD did not significantly change during the follow-up period. The TSH suppressive therapy was revealed as not a significant factor for the progressive deterioration of bone status during long term follow-up.
Absorptiometry, Photon ; Body Mass Index ; Bone Density ; Bone Diseases, Metabolic ; Diagnosis ; Female ; Follow-Up Studies ; Humans ; Osteoporosis ; Postmenopause ; Spine ; Thyroid Neoplasms ; Thyroidectomy ; Thyrotropin ; Thyroxine

In this part the writing group will cover strategies, techniques, and endpoints of atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation. Prior to all, electrical isolation of the pulmonary veins is recommended during all AF ablation procedures. In addition, techniques to be used for ablation of persistent and long-standing persistent AF, adjunctive ablation strategies, nonablative strategies to improve outcomes of AF ablation, and endpoints for ablation of paroxysmal, persistent, and long-standing persistent AF will be reviewed. Currently many technologies and tools are employed for AF ablation procedures. Radiofrequency energy, cryoablation, and other energy sources and tools are in various stages of development and/or clinical investigation. Finally, anticoagulation strategies pre-, during, and postcatheter ablation of AF and technical aspects of ablation to maximize safety are discussed in this section.
Atrial Fibrillation ; Catheter Ablation ; Catheters ; Cryosurgery ; Pulmonary Veins ; Writing

Catheter and surgical ablation of atrial fibrillation (AF) have evolved from investigational procedures to their current role as effective treatment options for patients with AF. Surgical ablation of AF is available in most major hospitals throughout the world. Catheter ablation of AF is even more widely available, and is now the most commonly performed catheter ablation procedure. Management of patients with AF has traditionally consisted of three main components: (1) anticoagulation for stroke prevention; (2) rate control; and (3) rhythm control. With the emergence of large amounts of data, which have both defined and called attention to the interaction between modifiable risk factors and the development of AF and outcomes of AF management, we believe it is time to include risk factor modification as the fourth pillar of AF management. Catheter and surgical ablation of AF are highly complex procedures, therefore a decision to perform catheter or surgical AF ablation should only be made after a patient carefully considers the risks, benefits, and alternatives to the procedure.
Atrial Fibrillation ; Catheter Ablation ; Catheters ; Humans ; Risk Factors ; Stroke