There are a large number of natural microbial communities in nature. Different populations inside the consortia expand the performance boundary of a single microbial population through communication and division of labor, reducing the overall metabolic burden and increasing the environmental adaptability. Based on engineering principles, synthetic biology designs or modifies basic functional components, gene circuits, and chassis cells to purposefully reprogram the operational processes of the living cells, achieving rich and controllable biological functions. Introducing this engineering design principle to obtain structurally well-defined synthetic microbial communities can provide ideas for theoretical studies and shed light on versatile applications. This review discussed recent progresses on synthetic microbial consortia with regard to design principles, construction methods and applications, and prospected future perspectives.
Microbial Consortia/genetics* ; Synthetic Biology ; Microbiota ; Models, Theoretical

The ethanol precipitation process of Nauclea officinalis extract was optimized based on the concept of quality by design(QbD). Single factor tests were carried out to determine the levels of test factors. The ethanol volume fraction, pre-ethanol precipitation drug concentration, and ethanol precipitation time were taken as critical process parameters(CPPs). With the comprehensive scores of strictosamide transfer rate and solid removal rate as the critical quality attributes(CQAs), Box-Behnken design was employed to establish the mathematical models and space design between CPPs and CQAs, and the obtained optimal operating space was validated. The optimal operating space included ethanol volume fraction of 65%-70%, pre-ethanol precipitation drug concentration of 22-27 mg·mL~(-1), and ethanol precipitation time of 12 h. Based on the concept of QbD, this study adopted the design space to optimize the ethanol precipitation process of N. officinalis extract, which provided a reliable theoretical basis for the quality control in the production process of N. officinalis preparations. Moroever, this study provided a reference value for guiding the research and industrial production of traditional Chinese medicines.
Drugs, Chinese Herbal ; Ethanol ; Medicine, Chinese Traditional ; Quality Control ; Models, Theoretical

Aortic Dissection ; Aortic Aneurysm, Thoracic ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical

The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant is rampant in Europe and the United States, and the Delta variant has caused several small-scale outbreaks in China. It is particularly important to simulate the transmission risk of novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) during large-scale events, so as to ensure a good preparation of personnel, materials, isolation sites and other support work in advance. Taking the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympic Games as an example, this study introduces the use of mathematical models to simulate the entry risks, closed-loop risks and prevention and control measures of athletes, officials and other stakeholders of the Olympic Games. In the simulation results on January 19, 2022, the estimated number of Olympic Games-related infections who were identified at borders was 357 (95%CI: 153-568) and the observed number was 323. The estimated number of "seed" cases that entered the closed-loop of Olympics Games was 195 (95%CI: 43-335), and the observed number of cases in the closed-loop was 212. This study demonstrates the important role of mathematical models of infectious diseases in the pragmatic application of preventive medicine and public health.
Anniversaries and Special Events ; COVID-19 ; Communicable Diseases ; Humans ; Mass Gatherings ; Models, Theoretical ; SARS-CoV-2 ; United States

To predict the epidemiological trend of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by mathematical modeling based on the population mobility and the epidemic prevention and control measures. : As of February 8，2020，the information of 151 confirmed cases in Yueqing，Zhejiang province were obtained，including patients' infection process，population mobility between Yueqing and Wuhan，etc. To simulate and predict the development trend of COVID-19 in Yueqing, the study established two-stage mathematical models，integrating the population mobility data with the date of symptom appearance of confirmed cases and the transmission dynamics of imported and local cases. : It was found that in the early stage of the pandemic，the number of daily imported cases from Wuhan (using the date of symptom appearance) was positively associated with the number of population travelling from Wuhan to Yueqing on the same day and 6 and 9 days before that. The study predicted that the final outbreak size in Yueqing would be 170 according to the number of imported cases estimated by consulting the population number travelling from Wuhan to Yueqing and the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model; while the number would be 165 if using the reported daily number of imported cases. These estimates were close to the 170，the actual monitoring number of cases in Yueqing as of April 27，2020. : The two-stage modeling approach used in this study can accurately predict COVID-19 epidemiological trend.
COVID-19 ; China/epidemiology* ; Disease Outbreaks ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Pandemics ; SARS-CoV-2

COVID-19/mortality* ; COVID-19 Testing ; Demography ; Humans ; Least-Squares Analysis ; Models, Theoretical ; SARS-CoV-2 ; United States/epidemiology*

In this paper, co-processed lactose SuperTab 40 LL was selected as fillers to study the preparation of musk sustained-release mini-tablets in the Xihuang multiple-unit drug release system. Musk sustained-release tablets containing different proportions of SuperTab 40 LL and MCC were prepared under various pressures, and then the compressibility and compactibility of these prescriptions were evaluated by Walker, Heckel and Ryshkewitch-Duckworth equations. In addition, the fluidity of the prescriptions was evaluated by parameters of Kawakita equation. There was a comprehensive analysis of the effect of SuperTab 40 LL on musk sustained-release mini-tablets combined with the appearance of SuperTab 40 LL and their tensile strength. The results shown that SuperTab 40 LL had better compression process through the Heckel equation, and the direct compression process of drug powders with excipients can be analyzed by the Kawakita and Ryshkewitch-Duckworth equations. As a new type of co-processed lactose, SuperTab 40 LL had a good fluidity and compactibility. SuperTab 40 LL may undergo particle crushing and plastic deformation during the compression process, which increased the contact area and bonding sites between the particles, and aggregated and shaped the mixed powder easy. Moreover, MCC showed a synergistic effect, and the combined application with SuperTab 40 ll could effectively improve the fluidity and compressibility of the musk sustained-release powder. When the ratio of SuperTab 40 LL and MCC was 2∶1, musk sustained-release mini-tablets had a high drug loading capacity and good compactibility in line with the design objectives.
Delayed-Action Preparations ; Drug Compounding ; Excipients ; Fatty Acids, Monounsaturated ; Models, Theoretical ; Powders ; Tablets

BACKGROUND: For the reason that many studies have been inconclusive on the effect of humidity on respiratory disease, we examined the association between absolute humidity and respiratory disease mortality and quantified the mortality burden due to non-optimal absolute humidity in Guangzhou, China. METHODS: Daily respiratory disease mortality including total 42,440 deaths from 1 February 2013 to 31 December 2018 and meteorological data of the same period in Guangzhou City were collected. The distributed lag non-linear model was used to determine the optimal absolute humidity of death and discuss their non-linear lagged effects. Attributable fraction and population attributable mortality were calculated based on the optimal absolute humidity, defined as the minimum mortality absolute humidity. RESULTS: The association between absolute humidity and total respiratory disease mortality showed an M-shaped non-linear curve. In total, 21.57% (95% CI 14.20 ~ 27.75%) of respiratory disease mortality (9154 deaths) was attributable to non-optimum absolute humidity. The attributable fractions due to high absolute humidity were 13.49% (95% CI 9.56 ~ 16.98%), while mortality burden of low absolute humidity were 8.08% (95% CI 0.89 ~ 13.93%), respectively. Extreme dry and moist absolute humidity accounted for total respiratory disease mortality fraction of 0.87% (95% CI - 0.09 ~ 1.58%) and 0.91% (95% CI 0.25 ~ 1.39%), respectively. There was no significant gender and age difference in the burden of attributable risk due to absolute humidity. CONCLUSIONS Our study showed that both high and low absolute humidity are responsible for considerable respiratory disease mortality burden, the component attributed to the high absolute humidity effect is greater. Our results may have important implications for the development of public health measures to reduce respiratory disease mortality.
China/epidemiology* ; Cities/epidemiology* ; Climate ; Humans ; Humidity/adverse effects* ; Models, Theoretical ; Nonlinear Dynamics ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/mortality* ; Sensitivity and Specificity

COVID-19 has brought a significant impact to the global health system, and also opportunities and challenges to epidemiological researches. Theoretical epidemiological models can simulate the process of epidemic in scenarios under different conditions. Therefore, modeling researches can analyze the epidemical trend of COVID-19, predict epidemical risks, and evaluate effects of different control measures and vaccine policies. Theoretical epidemiological modeling researches provide scientific advice for the prevention and control of infectious diseases, and play a crucial role in containing COVID-19 over the past year. In this study, we review the theoretical epidemiological modeling researches on COVID-19 and summarize the role of theoretical epidemiological models in the prevention and control of COVID-19, in order to provide reference for the combination of mathematical modeling and epidemic control.
COVID-19 ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology* ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; SARS-CoV-2

Among many factors that affect postmortem interval （PMI）, temperature is undoubtedly the most important factor, but simply considering temperature in estimation of PMI has limitations. Accumulated degree days （ADD） is an important indicator related to biological growth and development, which considers two major variables, environmental temperature and elapsed time. Therefore, the establishment of mathematical model of ADD and some evaluation indicators to estimate PMI, is obviously better than single temperature variable. This article briefly describes the research history of ADD, its application in PMI estimation, and the problems it faces, to provide reference for the further development of ADD to improve the accuracy of PMI estimation.
Autopsy ; Forensic Pathology ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Postmortem Changes ; Temperature